Economic hardship looms over Ghana as country readies for polls
When the Ghanaian opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo won the presidential election on his third attempt in 2016, many saw it as a turning point. The first person to unseat an incumbent, his historic win captured his compatriots’ frustration. Alleged corruption had ballooned under his predecessor, John Mahama: in one instance, Mahama accepted a $100,000 (£79,000) car from a foreign contractor that his spokesperson said was put into a pool of presidential vehicles; in another, judges were captured on video collecting bribes to dispense justice. Power outages nicknamed “dumsor” kept hospitals unlit for hours, and celebrities carried lanterns in the streets in protest. The cedi depreciated by 200% within a decade of its redenomination to equal the dollar and the country sought a bailout from the International Monetary Fund to stabilise the economy. Akufo-Addo was seen as a messiah, an image reinforced by his eloquence. “I am promising you that, within 18 months of a new government of the NPP [New Patriotic party], under my leadership, the face of our country, Ghana, is going to change,” he said in a November 2016 speech on the campaign trail. “We are going to get out of stagnation and backwardness, and move our country on to the path of progress and prosperity.” As his eight-year presidency comes to an end, the country has largely been safe despite rising conflict in its northern neighbour, Burkina Faso. Two oilfields were discovered in 2019, boosting government revenues and allowing it to spend more on social programmes. Salaries for teachers and medical personnel were increased, a departure from the prior administration’s stance. And there was a controversial purge that stabilised the banking sector. Still, many critics say he and vice-president Mahamudu Bawumia – the ruling party’s candidate in the 7 December presidential election – steered the country into hardship, especially in their second term. To win, Bawumia will have to get past Mahama, who is contesting for a third time. In the past three years, the cedi was one of the world’s worst-performing currencies and public debt was 72.3% of Ghana’s GDP as of December 2023. Despite being one of the world’s leading gold and cocoa producers, Ghana returned to the International Monetary Fund [IMF] for another bailout in 2022, unable to meet its debt obligations. That same year, one lawmaker called Bawumia an “economic Maguire” in parliament, a reference to the then-underperforming British defender. Electricity blackouts have made a comeback and illegal mining, once a peripheral phenomenon, has spread across 14 of the country’s 16 regions, experts say. Allegations of corruption and nepotism are still around: more than a dozen relatives of the president or ruling party officials were appointed to his cabinet and to head government agencies. And under Akufo-Addo, an acclaimed human rights lawyer, dozens of activists were arrested at separate protests against illegal mining, poor governance and a draconian anti-LGBTQ bill. ‘A deep hole’ Even the government’s accomplishments have come under fire. Since 2017, thousands if not millions of schoolchildren have benefited from the flagship free senior high school policy and free meals for those in lower cadres. But a 2023 Afrobarometer report shows that, while young Ghanaians are indeed more educated than generations before them, they are also more unemployed. The ruling party secretary Haruna Mohammed defended the government, saying it had provided more than 2.3 million jobs and “uncountable” indirect jobs, before giving an awkward analogy about why there was still unemployment. “[It’s] just like you saying that you want to make sure that the [voter] register does not have dead people,” he said. “People will die even before the elections. You cannot say that, even on the day of elections, you will not have dead people on the register because people will still die after cleaning the register. So you cannot say that you are going to do away with unemployment issues.” After a call by the president for members of the Black diaspora to visit Ghana and settle there, beginning from 2019, thousands of people flocked in. The government says it made millions in revenue but local people say the action, though well-intentioned, triggered inflation, particularly in the real estate and hospitality sectors. When the Covid-19 pandemic hit, Akufo-Addo handled the situation impressively: he gave regular televised addresses while his administration enforced quarantines and lockdowns; a trust fund was set up as well as a $209m (£165m) relief fund. But then senior government officials misappropriated funds for health workers; a tax instituted to cushion government coffers at the time is still being collected four years on, on everything from food to toiletries. “It is not surprising that the Covid tax is still there, because it’s filling a deep hole within the government’s revenue framework,” said Priscilla Baffour, a senior lecturer in economics at the University of Ghana. “And so I’m sure managers of the economy are keeping it there because, if they take it out … how can they make up for the shortfall?” Chasing legacy With only days to what is a close election, the incumbent will hand over to either his loyal deputy or to his great rival. In Ghanaian political history, elections have often been decided by a runoff after every eight years, usually in favour of the party in opposition. A Bawumia presidency would also be the first time a Muslim has become head of state in the west African nation, where more than 75% are Christians, since the return to multiparty democracy in 1992. Joshua Zaato, a policy analyst and senior lecturer at the University of Ghana’s political science department, said: “Mahama is the only president who can say he didn’t do two terms so, to him, it’s personal. “He doesn’t want history to treat him as an afterthought. But [the president] also wants to be the one who has helped make the first Muslim president … and handed over to his vice-president. “Economists can always talk about [the economy] but his ultimate objective should be to also hand over stable, secure, safe democracy because that would be the final act of his legacy … it is that act that has elevated former [president] Jerry John Rawlings to statesmanship now,” he added, referring to the former strongman who led Ghana into a multiparty democracy. The economy began rebounding this year, with a 6.9% growth in the second quarter, but some experts remain cautious. “Whoever becomes the next president has their work cut out for them,” said Baffour. “In terms of the path that we are on, we are seeing great signs of recovery in the economy … [but] this is also on the back of an IMF programme. When Ghana is under an IMF programme, the evidence is there, the country does well … [but] when we exit the programme, then the fiscal indiscipline comes in and the cycle continues.” In the streets, people say the growth is yet to trickle down to them. “Business is not good at all,” said Francisca Abbey, a 27-year-old trader at Makola market who is not voting on Saturday. “This corn dough has been on the stands for three days now, yet no one has approached me to buy. I can only blame the bad economy for this slow business. Compared with 2016 … I used to run out of dough before midday.” Additional reporting by Caleb Ahinakwah in Accra
