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JD Vance dispatched to negotiate Iran peace with few cards to play

As JD Vance arrives in Islamabad to negotiate a peace deal with Iran, his first high-profile assignment of the war looks to be a poisoned chalice. Vance, a vocal opponent of US wars in the Middle East gone quiet since the beginning of the current military campaign, will now face off with Iranian negotiators who feel emboldened by their new control of the Hormuz strait and their resilience in the face of the largest US-Israeli onslaught in history. Vance’s presence at the talks as vice-president will make it the highest-level meeting since the Iranian revolution of 1979. Vance’s task is straightforward enough: to bridge the gap between a rhetorical ceasefire in serious peril and a more durable peace. But Vance will be face a difficult choice in Islamabad: to either undersign considerable US concessions to Iran in order to hold the ceasefire and negotiate the opening of the strait of Hormuz – or effectively cut off negotiations, personally backing a return to war that is unpopular with the American public. The results could have a considerable impact on his expected run for the presidency in 2028, where his Maga credentials are already in question for failing to offer a more full-throated opposition to the war. Vance entered office calling for a more restrained foreign policy and an end to US forever wars in the Middle East – but the negotiations could drag him further into the largest US intervention in the region since the beginning of the Iraq war. Whether the negotiations will even begin is in question. Israel’s massive strikes on Lebanon and an apparent bait-and-switch over the country’s inclusion in the ceasefire has angered the Iranian leadership. And Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and a lead negotiator, said that the US must also furnish the “release of Iran’s blocked assets”, a condition for talks that the US has not publicly agreed to. “These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin,” Ghalibaf said on Friday, less than 24 hours after the negotiations in Islamabad were due to begin. Those remarks may be the first salvo of what will be a grueling experience for Vance. Tehran’s negotiators are renowned for a long-winded, relentless approach to deal making that Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had once called “market style” – meaning “continuous and tireless bargaining”. This will be their first chance in history to subject a sitting US vice-president under considerable pressure to cut a deal to that treatment. Before boarding Air Force Two en route to Pakistan on Friday, Vance said that his negotiating team had received “clear” instructions from Donald Trump on the negotiations, and added: “Let’s see where this goes.” “As the president of the United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand,” Vance told reporters. “If they’re going to try to play us, then they’re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive.” But before the meeting, former US negotiators with Iran said that Tehran’s assumed control of the strait of Hormuz had handed that government a powerful new weapon in negotiations with Washington. And while the US could walk away from the table in Islamabad, it cannot guarantee the free flow of marine traffic from the Persian Gulf, leaving Tehran with key leverage over the White House, as fuel shortages and a supply chain crisis could rock the global economy this summer. Vance’s dispatch to Islamabad follows his trip to Hungary, where he travelled to stump for the country’s autocratic leader, Viktor Orbán, in an election on Sunday that he looks likely to lose, ending 16 years in power and striking a blow to one of Maga’s key international outposts as part of a rightwing International that has been backed by Vance. The Hungarians had lobbied for a visit by Trump, but they received Vance instead, who lacks the president’s star power and was questioned for travelling on a campaign rally to Europe even as the US administration was entrenched in the conflict in Iran. From the beginning, Vance had been peripheral to the administration’s messaging about the war in Iran. As Trump’s war team gathered at a makeshift situation room in Florida (some termed it War-a-Lago), Vance called in from the situation room at the White House, joined by another key anti-war voice of Trump’s administration, the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. The secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, has regularly delivered televised briefings on the conflict and the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has been a more public booster for the war than Vance. “He was, I would say, philosophically a little bit different than me,” Trump said of Vance’s feeling about the war. “I think he was maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic. But I felt it was something we had to do. I didn’t feel we had a choice.” Now, Vance has been tapped to end the war that he is said not to have wanted. But his reappearance in the limelight will be fraught with risk.

Middle East crisis live: Trump warns of fresh Iran strikes if talks fail; Lebanon and Israel agree to meet in US

An Iranian delegation will meet with Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif on Saturday morning, the Tasnim news agency reported, adding that if Iran’s preconditions are accepted then talks with the U.S. will begin on Saturday afternoon in Islamabad.

Fuel-price protests cause chaos in Ireland and spread to Norway

Protests over fuel prices have caused chaos in Ireland and spread to Norway in a knock-on effect from the conflict in the Middle East. People in Ireland were urged to only buy fuel they needed as 100 fuel stations ran out, and the National Emergency Coordination Group warned the number could rise to 500 on Friday. Hauliers, farmers and other groups blocked motorways and brought parts of Dublin to a standstill on Friday in a fourth consecutive day of action in a knock-on effect from the conflict. In Ireland the protests have led to fuel shortages and travel disruption, and in Norway lorry drivers taking part in the “diesel roar” protest descended on the capital. The Irish government put the army on standby to help remove blockades and police warned some protesters to disperse or face arrest, prompting defiance and threats to continue the disruption for weeks if necessary. Protests were endangering critical supplies of food, fuel, clean water and animal feed, the police force, An Garda Síochána, said. “This is not tolerable and is against the law.” Government leaders have accused protesters of holding the country to “ransom”. The blockade of ports and a refinery meant Ireland was on the verge of turning away oil deliveries and losing its supply, the taoiseach, Micheál Martin, told RTÉ. “It is unconscionable, it’s illogical.” Despite government mitigation measures, in recent weeks the price of diesel has risen from about €1.70 a litre to €2.17 and petrol has jumped from about €1.74 to €1.97. A meeting between ministers and representative bodies from the haulage and farming industries on Friday ended without a resolution, and the talks – which went ahead without the participation of protesters – will continue on Saturday. Ireland’s deputy premier, Simon Harris, said there would be a “substantial and significant” package of support for “key sectors of the economy”. Harris said talks between government and representative bodies in the farming and haulage sectors were “going well”, adding that further “intensive engagement” into the weekend was likely. Speaking to RTÉ News, he said: “The blockade has to end.” But Christopher Duffy, a spokesperson for the protest in Dublin, said the action would continue until there was detail on a “serious reduction in our costs”. The justice minister, Jim O’Callaghan, said “outside actors”, such as the British far-right activist Tommy Robinson, were manipulating the protests for their own agenda. In Denmark’s recent election the far-right Danish People’s party tried to tap into discontent by paying voters for their petrol. The rise in oil prices since the US and Israel began attacking Iran on 28 February has convulsed global markets and triggered outcries from consumers and businesses who want governments to do more to soften the blow. Some countries announced temporary cuts in fuel taxes while others took measures to restrict demand and considered rationing. The Philippines declared a state of “national energy emergency”. Authorities in France tried to avert widespread shortages by announcing on Friday that fuel tankers would be allowed to circulate on weekends and public holidays until 11 May. In Norway protesters on Friday drove a convoy of lorries to the parliament in Oslo. About 70 to 80 trucks, some with banners that read “nok er nok!” (enough is enough!), joined another group known as Dieselbrølet (diesel roar). Only a handful were allowed to drive into the capital. Norway cut fuel taxes on 1 April but hauliers say they need more predictable and lower prices. Despite being an oil producer, fuel prices in Norway have surged since the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz. The Statistics Norway institute said the price of fuel and lubricants rose by 17.9% from February to March, with diesel prices in that period jumping by 23.6%. A Statistics Norway spokesperson said it had never recorded a sharper month-on-month increase in fuel prices using the CPI inflation index. “The last time we saw something similar was in the spring of 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but in that case the price increase occurred over two consecutive months.” Last month the Irish government announced a €250m package of measures to reduce fuel costs, including a temporary excise duty reduction, expansion of a diesel rebate scheme for hauliers and bus operators and an extension of the fuel allowance. Blockades of Ireland’s sole oil refinery at Whitegate, County Cork, and fuel depots in Galway City and Foynes in County Limerick crippled deliveries. Dozens of forecourts ran dry and there were warnings as motorists rushed to fill up on petrol and diesel. Columns of tractors and other vehicles closed motorways and Dublin’s main thoroughfare, O’Connell Street. The Irish Medical Organisation said slower emergency services response times and missed healthcare appointments would harm patient welfare. The courier company DPD suspended deliveries. Protesters were prepared to remain in the capital for weeks, a spokesperson, John Dallon, told RTÉ. “If it takes a month, we are prepared to sit here,” he said. He accused the government of ignoring the plight of people facing hardship and ruin because of fuel costs. “How dare they come out and say that these people that are protesting are holding the country to ransom? It’s the government that’s holding this country to ransom, not the protesters.” The taoiseach postponed a trade mission to Canada to deal with the crisis.

JD Vance warns Iran against trying to ‘play’ the US in peace talks

JD Vance has warned Iran not to “try and play” the US at talks planned for Saturday in Islamabad, while Tehran said it would not take part until Israel stopped bombing of Lebanon. The US vice-president made the comments as he boarded a plane to Pakistan for negotiations that could determine whether a ceasefire holds or the war on Iran resumes with grave implications for the global economy. With hours to go before the talks were scheduled to start, doubts remained as to whether they actually would. Meanwhile, it was announced Friday that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to meet in Washington DC on Tuesday to discuss a ceasefire and to set a date to begin talks. The date of the meeting was set during a phone call between Lebanon’s ambassador to the US, Nada Hamadeh Mouawad; Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yehiel Leiter; and the US ambassador to Lebanon, Michael Issa. The conversation on Tuesday will be mediated by the US and take place at the state department. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and the co-leader of the country’s delegation, said on X on Friday: “Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations. These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.” It was unclear on Friday evening whether Qalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, were still planning to fly to Islamabad to lead their delegation. It was reported last month that Israel had taken Qalibaf and Araghchi off the target list of its bombing campaign at Washington’s request. Donald Trump fuelled the uncertainty by saying US forces were rearming and ready to return to the attack if the negotiations failed. “We have a reset going. We’re loading up the ships with the best ammunition, the best weapons ever made – even better than what we did previously and we blew them apart,” the US president told the New York Post. “And if we don’t have a deal, we will be using them, and we will be using them very effectively.” Later on Friday, Trump followed up his threats with a post on his own social media site declaring: “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” The Iranians and the Pakistani mediators say the two-week ceasefire agreement struck by the US and Iran on the night of 7 April included Lebanon. Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, say this is not the case, and Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon in its offensive against Hezbollah, Iran’s closest ally in the region, even after Netanyahu said he was ready to start peace talks with the Lebanese government. More than 300 Lebanese citizens have been killed by Israeli bombing since the ceasefire started. The country’s president, Joseph Aoun, said on Friday that 13 state security personnel had been killed in an Israeli strike on a government building in the southern city of Nabatieh. Trump has accused Iran of doing a “very poor job” of allowing oil to go through the strait, adding in an overnight social media post: “That is not the agreement we have!” The oil price spike caused by the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February, and Iran’s response by closing the strait of Hormuz to oil tankers and other shipping, is a direct political threat to the president before congressional elections in November. Despite the uncertain outlook for the ceasefire, Vance’s tone was generally optimistic as he boarded Air Force Two. “We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s going to be positive,” Vance said. “If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand.” But he added: “If they’re going to try and play us, then they’re going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.” Trump’s all-purpose international negotiator, Steve Witkoff, was also expected to be in the US delegation, as was the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Witkoff and Kushner took part in talks with Iranian negotiators prior to the US-Israeli attack, which had been focused on Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes. The Omani mediators of those talks, as well as UK government observers, believed meaningful progress had been made and were expecting another round of negotiations when the US and Israel launched their surprise attack on 28 February. After more than five weeks of bombing, the campaign has killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, but failed to dislodge the Islamic regime in Tehran. It has also inflicted heavy losses on Iran’s armed forces but they were still able to threaten shipping in the Hormuz strait and cut off the flow of a fifth of the world’s oil and liquified fossil gas. The Islamabad talks are expected to focus on the reopening of the strait, as well as the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and the prospect of sanctions relief. Iran says it will also demand reparations for war damage. According to the Washington Post, Vance’s delegation intends to demand the release of Americans detained in Iran. Advance teams from the US and Iran reportedly began to take up rooms on Friday in the five-star Serena hotel in central Islamabad, with Pakistani officials relaying messages between the two camps. Officials from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries were also arriving to represent their interests. A 2-mile (3km) security perimeter was set up around the hotel by Pakistani security services, the city centre was locked down and a public holiday declared for Pakistan’s highest-level mediation effort on the world stage in recent times. Hezbollah did not comment on news of the direct negotiations between the Lebanese and Israeli government, despite the group’s historical opposition to any contact with Israel. The head of the armed group, Naim Qassem, in a written statement published on Friday afternoon, called on the Lebanese government to “cease making gratuitous concessions”, without making explicit mention of the negotiations. “We will not accept a return to the status quo, and we call upon those in authority to cease making gratuitous concessions,” Qassem said, vowing to keep fighting and to “expel the occupier”. The Lebanese army deployed additional soldiers across Beirut, with a strong presence by the prime minister’s office, as the government sought to implement its decision to allow no arms outside state control in the country’s capital city. The decision was taken after Israel’s attack on Wednesday which left at least 303 people dead. Fighting has continued in south Lebanon despite the upcoming negotiations and Hezbollah claimed to have struck Israeli soldiers on the outskirts of Bint Jbeil. Bint Jbeil carries historical and strategic significance because Hezbollah managed to keep Israeli forces out of the town in the 2006 war – earning it the moniker of the “capital of resistance”. The area is also key to controlling the central area of southern Lebanon because it sits at the crossroads of neighbouring towns and hills. Hezbollah launched volleys of rockets at Israel throughout Friday. Israel carried out airstrikes across Lebanon, killing 13 government security officers in an attack near the provincial government’s headquarters in Nabatieh, according to Lebanon’s state security agency. It was the highest number of Lebanese security forces killed by Israel so far. Lebanon’s government is not a party to the Hezbollah-Israel war but Israeli strikes have killed Lebanese soldiers over the course of the conflict.

One dead and 27 injured after bus with British passengers crashes in Canary Islands

A man has died and 27 people are in hospital after a bus carrying British passengers crashed in the Canary Islands, local officials have said. The incident happened at 1.15pm local time on Friday when the vehicle veered into a ravine on the GM-2 highway near the town of San Sebastián de La Gomera. Local media reported the bus was transporting a British group for a boat tour and four of the injured were in critical condition. Officials said: “Emergency health services attended to the 28 occupants of the bus – 27 tourists of British nationality and the driver. “We can confirm one man has died and 27 injured of varying degrees of severity, three of them serious, have been transferred to the Hospital Nuestra Señora de Guadalupe.” There are understood to have been 25 adults on board including the driver, and three children. The most seriously injured passenger was transferred to hospital on the neighbouring island of Tenerife with the rest of the injured being treated at La Gomera hospital. Fernando Clavijo, the president of the Canary Islands, said: “I am following the accident of a bus reported in La Gomera and the work of the emergency teams who are intervening at this moment. My support to the victims and their families.” The British embassy in the Spanish capital, Madrid, said: “Our thoughts go out to those affected by this tragic incident. We are aware of the situation and we stand ready to support British nationals. We are also in touch with local authorities on the ground.” Spanish police have launched an investigation but the cause of the crash has not yet been established. Last year, one woman died and 10 people were injured in a traffic accident on the same road. The UK foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, said her thoughts were with those affected by the “tragic” crash and that the Foreign Office was ready to support the British tourists involved and their families.

‘God does not bless any conflict’: pope issues new rebuke over Iran war

Pope Leo XIV on Friday offered a new criticism of war, in a social media post that named no names but appeared to hint at the Trump administration leadership harnessing Christian nationalism to glorify the US and Israel’s war against Iran. “God does not bless any conflict. Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs,” Leo wrote on his official X account. “Military action will not create space for freedom or times of #Peace, which comes only from the patient promotion of coexistence and dialogue among peoples.” The pope, who was born in Chicago and is the first American to lead the Catholic church, has consistently spoken out against the fighting in the Middle East since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran in February. Leo’s post on Friday appeared to be an oblique response to the Trump administration’s repeated references to God while conducting Operation Epic Fury in Iran. The defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has especially portrayed the conflict in religious terms, describing it as a holy war carried out “in the name of Jesus Christ”. Hegseth, who has a long association with Christian nationalism, has compared the rescue of the second crew member from a downed F-15E fighter jet in Iran last weekend, which happened to be Easter weekend, to the resurrection of Jesus Christ. He told reporters: “Shot down on a Friday, Good Friday, hidden in a cave, a crevice, all of Saturday and rescued on Sunday, flown out of Iran as the sun was rising on Easter Sunday, a pilot reborn. All home and accounted for. A nation rejoicing. God is good.” On Friday, the pope also wrote: “Absurd and inhuman violence is spreading ferociously through the sacred places of the Christian East. Profaned by the blasphemy of war and the brutality of business, with no regard for people’s lives, which are considered at most collateral damage of self-interest.” He continued: “No gain can be worth the life of the weakest, children, or families. No cause can justify the shedding of innocent blood.” Donald Trump and other senior officials, including Hegseth, have used religious language and implied that the US is engaged in a divinely supported mission, while simultaneously promising “death and destruction”. The US president told reporters last week that he believes God backs US actions in Iran. The violence from the war on Iran has already claimed thousands of lives across the Middle East since coordinated US and Israeli attacks began on 28 February. After Trump said earlier in the week that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not reopen the strait of Hormuz and comply with his demands, Leo called the threats “truly unacceptable”. Back in March, during a Palm Sunday mass in St Peter’s Square, the pope referred to the fighting involving Iran, Israel and the US as “atrocious” and emphasized that Jesus should not be invoked to justify war. He made those comments as thousands of US troops were arriving in the region and shortly after Hegseth had prayed for violence against enemies he said deserved “no mercy”. Pope Leo also said that God does not listen to the prayers of leaders who pursue war and have “hands full of blood”.

Orbán and rival Magyar hold rallies as Hungary election campaigns enter final stretch – as it happened

… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today! Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán and opposition leader Péter Magyar took part in major rallies on the penultimate day of campaign in Hungary in a final push to mobilise their supporters ahead of this weekend’s pivotal parliamentary election. Addressing a Fidesz stronghold in Székesfehérvar, Orbán largely stuck to his campaign lines attacking Ukraine and warning voters about the risks associated with a government change. Meanwhile, Magyar pushed to win over more voters in the final 48 hours of the campaign, as polls suggest his Tisza party could win the vote on Sunday, ending Orbán’s 16-year rule. We will be live-blogging from Budapest again on Sunday, bringing you all the key updates, results, and analysis of the vote. If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.

Remaining in Nato is in best interests of US, says Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer has said it is in the best interests of the US to stay in Nato and that Europe must do more to support the alliance in light of the war in Iran. The British prime minister, speaking at the end of a multi-stop trip around the Gulf to discuss the tentative ceasefire and options to fully reopen the commercially vital strait of Hormuz, pushed back against Donald Trump’s threats to leave the defence alliance. The US president has repeatedly criticised European members of Nato, which largely disagreed with the attacks on Iran, for not participating more fully in the strikes. He included a threat to pull Washington out of the alliance altogether. Starmer, speaking in Qatar at the end of a trip during which he also met leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, agreed with Trump’s calls for European members of Nato to spend more on defence, while insisting it was in the interests of the US to stay in the alliance. “We’re very strong supporters of Nato and I’ve been making the argument for some considerable time that we need to do more,” he said. “It’s the single most effective military alliance the world has ever known. “Do we Europeans need to do more? Yes. I’ve been making that argument for the best part of two years, to our European partners as much as anybody else. We continue to make that case and we will make that case.” He added: “It is in America’s interests; it’s in European interests. Nato is a defensive alliance, which for decades has kept us much safer than we would otherwise have been. “Do I think this will be a stronger European element to Nato? Yes, and I think we should step into that space. We’re already doing it, which is why we’re coordinating strategically with our partners in Nato.” Starmer and Trump spoke on Thursday night. Talking to broadcasters in Doha, Starmer said much of the call was spent discussing how to ensure ships could safely pass through the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil and gas as well as other goods, which Iran in effect blocked after attacks by the US and Israel. As well as ensuring the sea route is safe, Starmer has stressed the need to avoid the potential scenario of Iran charging levies on ships passing through. Earlier this week Trump mooted the idea of a “joint venture” between the US and Iran to set tolls. Starmer, setting out his talks with the various Gulf leaders, said they shared this view and were concerned about the ceasefire, which is under threat from continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon and Iran warning it could retaliate. “Obviously, the discussion moved very quickly to the ceasefire, a sense that it’s fragile, that more work is needed, that the strait of Hormuz has to be part of the solution, a very strong sense that there can’t be tolling or restrictions on that navigation,” he said. Trump has appeared volatile and irascible as the Iran war has failed to produce regime change in Tehran or achieve any other tangible US goals. He has expressed this in insults to other world leaders, including Starmer, and threats to Iran, including threatening before the ceasefire that the country’s “whole civilisation [would] die” if it did not meet US demands. John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said on Friday that rather than poring over Trump’s social media posts, those in the US should instead examine the UK’s actions in the Gulf, saying these “spoke for themselves”. While the UK refused to participate in attacks on Iran, it contributed significantly to efforts to defend Gulf states from Iranian attacks, with UK planes and ground gunners shooting down a number of Iranian drones and missiles. UK bases were also available to US planes, if only for missions seen as defensive. “Even in this current conflict, the basing permissions that we in the UK have agreed with the US have been invaluable to their military operations,” Healey said, adding: “If we focus on our actions rather than just simply the exchange of words and social media posts, then the fundamentals for me remain.”