And here we have a visual guide on how the escalating US-Israeli war on Iran is threatening oil supplies, driving up oil and gas prices, and stoking inflation around the globe.
As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump repeatedly pledged to get the US out of “endless wars”, put “America first” and focus on domestic policy. After his first term, he was fond of boasting, somewhat misleadingly, that there were “no wars” during his presidency. Now the Trump administration’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran has shocked the US and the world. It has also divided conservative media in the US – with many journalists and pundits on the right celebrating Trump’s decision to confront a longtime American foe, but others expressing dismay or confusion at the revival of a Bush-style interventionism that they thought the Maga movement had repudiated. “There is a Maga generational divide on this. Older voters support it, younger voters do not,” the rightwing, pro-Maga podcaster Jack Posobiec told Politico. “Gen Z Maga wants arrests on Epstein, deportations and economic relief, not more war.” Yet that would appear to be a minority view across much of the biggest conservative media players. Rupert Murdoch’s news empire has taken a mostly cheerleading stance toward the ongoing military operation, with Fox News contributors describing the strike on Iran as “just and imperative” and “a successful, coordinated effort to promote fundamental and lasting change in Iran”. In an editorial, the New York Post praised Trump’s “decisive move to destroy Iran’s war machinery and take out the regime’s leadership”. The editorial board of Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal, arguably the last remaining big avatar of the Bush-era right, described the strikes as “necessary” and argued that the “biggest mistake President Trump could make now would be to end the war too soon, before Iran’s military and its domestic terror forces have been more thoroughly destroyed”. National Review, a magazine that was for decades the voice of the conservative establishment but has occupied a more uncertain position in the age of Trump-style populism, has also mostly seemed to endorse the strikes, with one contributor urging the US to supply the Iranian opposition with weapons, and another asserting that comparisons with the Iraq war are fallacious and that the Iran war will probably be over “within a few weeks”. Conservative outlets’ positions on the Iran war generally hew to longstanding positions on Israel and hawkish foreign policy. The more ardently pro-Israel publications, such as the Washington Free Beacon, the Daily Wire and Tablet magazine have fiercely defended the necessity of the strikes, though Matt Walsh, a Daily Wire contributor, mocked the administration’s rationales for the war on social media, saying: “The messaging on this thing is, to put it mildly, confused” He added in another post: “It’s foolhardy to think you can just drop in, take out the top guy and leave with no problem.” The Free Press, the publication that Bari Weiss founded before becoming editor-in-chief of CBS News, has seemed to split the difference, with several pieces sympathetic to a desire to topple the Iranian regime, but cautious or pessimistic about the chances of success. In a piece called The Case Against the War, the writer and military veteran Elliot Ackerman noted that the “Arab spring offers several dire examples of popular protests for democracy mutating into deadly civil wars, chief among them the decade-long civil war in Syria. A civil war in Iran on the scale of Syria would be catastrophic.” Weiss herself reportedly angered some CBS staffers when she boosted a critique of Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s mayor, for coming out against the strikes. Parts of the isolationist-leaning hard right of the Maga movement, however, appear furious with the Trump administration for what Curt Mills, the executive director of the American Conservative, said on Steve Bannon’s podcast was an “open betrayal” of the Maga base. Tucker Carlson told ABC News that the Iran attack is “absolutely disgusting and evil”, and argued that Trump’s decision would further unsettle an already fragile conservative political coalition. Carson said: “This is going to shuffle the deck in a profound way.” Trump’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran is highly likely to empower a Christian nationalist stream of the right, which has often spun legitimate criticisms of the US alliance with Israel into outright antisemitism. On the far right, the conspiracy theorist Candace Owens and the white nationalist pundit Nick Fuentes both condemned the war, with Fuentes mocking the credulity of people who voted for Trump thinking he represented a sharp break with US foreign policy. On X, Owens dubbed the US-Israeli operation “Operation Epstein Fury” and invoked antisemitic conspiracy theories to declare that “Goyim always … die so the Khazarian mafia can expand their borders.” Most of the “podcast bros” – the influential group of podcasters, such as Joe Rogan, Andrew Schulz and Theo Von – have so far not weighed in, though if past indications are reliable, they will probably be ambivalent or outright critical of Trump’s decision to attack Iran. The American Conservative, a magazine co-founded by Pat Buchanan in 2002, is the standard bearer for a “paleoconservative” wing of the American right that has been skeptical of foreign wars, free trade and free market absolutism, and was unsurprisingly scathing about the Iran strikes. On X, the magazine pointedly posted a video of JD Vance, in 2024, saying: “Our interest, I think, very much is in not going to war with Iran. It would be [a] huge distraction of resources. It would be massively expensive to our country.”
In a somewhat vague statement before the UN security council, Melania Trump offered her “heartfelt condolences to the families who have lost their heroes who sacrifice their lives for freedom”, without naming a specific conflict, or the US-Israel war on Iran. She added: I extend my earnest wishes for a swift and smooth recovery to all those who have been injured. You are in my thoughts and prayers during these challenging times, the US stands with all of the children throughout the world. I hope soon peace will be yours.
Iran’s noisy $50,000 delta-winged Shahed 136 drones have long been an unwanted sight over the skies of Ukraine. Now, over the last 48 hours, hundreds of the distinctive weapons have struck Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE and across the Gulf as Tehran tries to intimidate and impose costs on regional allies of the US. A video from Bahrain shows a delta-wing drone flying towards a tower block at night, the lawnmower grumble from its engine clearly audible, before it slams terrifyingly into the building, with fiery debris falling beyond the balcony window. The apartment may not have survived a direct hit. More than 1,000 drones – a high proportion of which are likely to be Shahed 136s – have targeted Iran’s Gulf neighbours since the US and Israel first attacked Tehran on Saturday morning. On Monday afternoon, the UAE said it had been attacked by 689 drones and had downed 645 – meaning 44 drones, a little over 6% of the total, got through. The Shahed 136s are 3.5 metres long with a wingspan of 2.5 metres. Their relatively low cost and ease of manufacture, particularly compared with a ballistic missile, of which Iran could only make a few dozen of a year before the US-Israeli bombing started, means the drones are more likely to remain a feature of the conflict for some time. Most Shahed 136s are relatively slow, though faster jet engine variants have been seen in Ukraine, and can only carry an explosive payload of about 50kg – enough to damage a skyscraper but not enough to bring it down. But their noise, their large size and final terminal dive readily provoke terror. A second video, also from Bahrain, clearly shows a single delta-winged drone flying above the heart of the naval base housing the US Fifth Fleet, before swooping down successfully to smash into and destroy a radar dome. Shahed strikes have also been reported in Kuwait and the UAE, and probably at an RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus. Their range is as much as 1,250 miles (2,000km) and they are typically preprogrammed on complex flight paths, travelling low above ground to try to evade radar detection. But there is growing evidence in Ukraine that they can be remotely piloted by operators, allowing them to change course at the last minute. Shahed 136s were designed towards the end of the last decade in Iran and were definitively first spotted in July 2021, in an attack on an Israeli-owned oil tanker, Mercer Street, in which a Briton and a Romanian were killed. They may have also been used earlier, in September 2019, against Saudi oil installations at Abqaiq and Khurais. But the drones, originally designed by Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center, an Iranian company the US says is subordinate to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, became widespread as a result of their use by Russia in the war in Ukraine from the autumn of 2022. Initially exported, Iran later shared the design to allow Russia to manufacture large numbers at a factory in Yelabuga, on the Volga River. Russia typically attacks Ukraine using coordinated swarms of up to 800 Shahed 136s, similar looking Gebera decoys, and a small number of cruise and ballistic missiles, in an effort to overwhelm Kyiv’s air defences so the more deadly missiles can get through. But most of the videos of Shaheds in the Gulf this weekend show isolated drones that have got through air defences rather than an attacking swarm. In Ukraine, Shaheds have been most effective at hitting static targets, most notably utility infrastructure, leading to a national electricity and heating crisis this winter, affecting hundreds of thousands of homes or more. Iran may have success if it copies that tactic: on Monday morning the Ras Tanura refinery, the largest in Saudi Arabia, was damaged after a drone attack caused a blaze, forcing it to close. Though the weapon used was not confirmed to be a Shahed, it had the same explosive effect.
Israel closed all crossings into Gaza indefinitely when it attacked Iran, imposing a siege that has already pushed up food prices and threatens to plunge 2 million people into a new hunger crisis. After more than two years of war, and with Israeli forces in control of about 60% of the territory, almost all Gaza’s food must be brought in. Humanitarian groups feeding much of the population say the supplies they had on Saturday, when the war began, will only last a few more days. “If (the borders) stay closed, World Central Kitchen will run out of food this week,” said the organisation’s founder and chief, José Andrés, in a post on social media. “We are cooking 1 million hot meals every day. We need food deliveries every single day.” One international food security expert said there was a week’s supply of fresh food in Gaza. Community bakeries that supply some of the most vulnerable people only have enough flour for about 10 days of bread, and there are around two weeks of aid parcels. Israel imposed a total siege on Gaza last spring followed by extreme restrictions on food shipments. Together they caused a famine last summer. Hundreds of people were also killed trying to reach the food distribution points of a new logistics organisation, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which only operated in Israeli-controlled areas. As news of Israel’s attack on Iran spread, Palestinians haunted by memories of famine and other periods of extreme hunger raced out to buy supplies, pushing up prices. The price of a 25kg sack of flour has tripled to between 80 and 100 shekels, from about 30 shekels last week. Other essentials including sugar, nappies and cooking oil have doubled. “The return of famine to Gaza is what we fear most, even more than the shelling,” said Sobhi Al-Zaaneen, 50-year-old father of seven, originally from northern Gaza. He had decided to stock up on more food despite the cost. “I’m now on my way to the market to buy what we need before prices increase further.” Many in Gaza do not have funds to stock up, after losing their homes and jobs in the war, and running through any savings to survive. “I don’t have enough money to buy and store food before prices increase, as some others have done,” said Um Mohammed Hijazi, a 49-year-old mother of five. The family home was destroyed in the war and they were displaced five times. “Thank God, I have a small food supply from aid we received from relief organisations, which may be enough for a few days if the crossings remain closed.” Some staples are harder to find than a week ago, and Hijazi said she heard some traders put their goods into storage, hoping to profit from further price rises. As the occupying power in Gaza, Israel has a legal responsibility to ensure there is sufficient food for civilians there. That obligation is not affected by the war with Iran, said Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Refugee Council. “Community kitchens are already closing, and prices for basic goods have started to rise,” he said in a post on X. “Even amid a widening regional war, international humanitarian law still requires Israel to facilitate relief for civilians under its control.” The Israeli authority that controls aid and commercial flows into Gaza, Cogat, said it halted shipments into Gaza for security reasons amid the war with Iran. “Opening the crossings under fire puts lives at risk, both personnel on the Israeli side and on the Gazan side,” a spokesperson said in written comments. Israel has kept border crossings with Jordan and Egypt open, and the food logistics chain inside the country is still operating. The Cogat spokesperson said there was adequate food in Gaza, but declined to give any statistics. “Existing stockpiles inside Gaza are expected to suffice for a while,” the statement said. Gaza shares a border with Egypt, which has been closed for aid since Israeli forces took control of the area in May 2024. The Cogat spokesperson did not respond to questions about why that had not been opened to aid shipments. Palestinians and international humanitarian organisations have warned for months that essential goods including food are in short supply despite the ceasefire. UN-backed experts said in December that nearly four in five Palestinians in Gaza faced acute food insecurity. An erratic system of Israeli controls and the destruction of warehouses means there are not enough food supplies inside Gaza to cushion the impact of border crossings, said Bahaa Al-Amawi, secretary of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce of North Gaza. “Since the beginning of the ceasefire, there has been no strategic stockpile, and we are unable to establish one under the current conditions,” he said. “This means that as soon as a closure is announced, it triggers a psychological crisis for many citizens due to their previous experience with famine, alongside a real commercial crisis caused by the absence of stock reserves. The market reacts quickly.” Alaa Abu Rakba, 43, has been supporting his wife and four children selling meat from a small kiosk set up outside his tent. Their home was destroyed in the war. His business was effectively cut off overnight, but he immediately went out to buy up basic supplies like sugar, flour and oil. “We learned our lesson from the first time,” he said. “I would rather the war and shelling return than see the crossings closed, because I do not want to live through a famine again or find myself unable to provide food for my children for days.”
France will increase the size of its nuclear arsenal for the first time in decades and significantly intensify nuclear weapons cooperation with eight European allies including the UK as part of a “major” strengthening of its deterrence doctrine, Emmanuel Macron has said. Amid growing concern among European leaders about wavering US commitments to help defend the continent, the French president said on Monday that Paris could deploy nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets to partner countries such as Germany and Poland. But there would be no sharing of decision-making on the use of the country’s nuclear weapons, he said, with the “ultimate decision” the responsibility of the French president and “the definition of [France’s] vital interests” also remaining “sovereign”. In a speech delivered from the Île Longue nuclear submarine base in Brittany, Macron said a “period of geopolitical upheaval, fraught with risk” meant France, the EU’s only nuclear power, must strengthen its deterrent “in the face of multiple threats”. An upgrade of the country’s arsenal was “essential”, Macron said, adding that he had decided to order an increase. France’s estimated 290 nuclear warheads, a number that has not changed since 1992, constitute the world’s fourth largest nuclear arsenal, after Russia, the US and China. “My responsibility is to ensure that our deterrence maintains – and will maintain in the future – its assured destructive power,” said the French president, who is commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces. He added that France would not stipulate how many nuclear warheads it had in its arsenal nor how many it planned to add, and that the increase was needed to maintain it. “This is not an arms race,” he insisted. “It is essential that our adversaries, or combination of adversaries, cannot even glimpse the possibility of hitting France without the certainty of suffering damage they would not recover from.” Macron cited Russia’s war against Ukraine, which last month entered its fifth year, China’s expanding military power and recent changes in US defence strategy as reasons why Europe had to take more direct responsibility for its own security. Announcing the “gradual implementation of what I would call ‘advance deterrence’”, Macron said France must now also “consider our deterrence strategy deep within the European continent, with full respect for our sovereignty”. Under unspecified circumstances, French “strategic assets” could be deployed in other European countries, he said, referring to France’s nuclear-capable Rafale jets. Talks on enhanced cooperation had already started with the UK, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark, he added. The new model would allow France’s strategic deterrent to be “spread across the European continent” to “complicate the calculations of our adversaries”, Macron said. The doctrine could also involve “the conventional participation of allied forces in our nuclear activities”, he added. Bruno Tertrais, the deputy director of France’s FRS thinktank, said Macron’s speech was “the most significant update to French nuclear deterrence policy in 30 years” and a “major step forward”. Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Russia over the Ukraine war and his tougher posture towards the US’s traditional transatlantic allies have shaken European governments, which have long relied on the US for deterring potential adversaries. Macron’s long-planned speech was maintained despite the escalating conflict around Iran because the “violence in the Middle East shows the importance of France’s power and independence to face down growing threats”, a French official said. Macron has previously floated a mutualisation of France’s nuclear arsenal, including at last month’s Munich Security Conference at which he said a “re-articulation” was needed to reflect “special cooperation … and common security interests” within Europe. Earlier this month the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said he had held “initial talks” with Macron on the nuclear issue. France and the UK also adopted a joint declaration in July on the “coordination” of both nations’ nuclear forces. France and Germany said in a joint statement on Monday after Macron’s speech that they had set up a “high-ranking nuclear steering group” as part of an arrangement they said would “add to, not substitute for, Nato’s nuclear deterrence”. The two countries said they had “agreed to take first concrete steps, including German conventional participation in French nuclear exercises and joint visits to strategic sites as well as development of conventional capabilities with European partners”. Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said in a social media post that he was in talks with Paris and European allies on the French proposals, adding: “We are arming up together with our friends so that our enemies will never dare to attack us.” Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, also confirmed Sweden’s intention to take part in the discussions. “Strengthening Europe’s overall defence capability has not been as important since the second world war as it is right now,” he said. Kristersson noted the talks would take place “in dialogue also with the US” and Nato, which Sweden joined in 2024. “As long as Russia has these weapons and threatens its neighbours, democracies must be able to deter” them, he said.
Thousands more flights were cancelled on Monday as the turmoil in global air travel caused by the US-Israel war on Iran continued, with hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded. Gulf airports and airlines have suspended normal operations until at least 10.00 GMT on Tuesday. However, a limited number of special services were due to depart from the UAE on Monday evening. Airline and travel share prices fell sharply after days of disruption, with Donald Trump indicating that the US military action could last another four weeks. Some carriers and travel companies are offering refunds or free changes to those due to travel in the coming weeks. Major Middle Eastern airports, including Dubai – the world’s busiest international hub – closed for a third consecutive day amid the most acute aviation shock since the Covid pandemic paralysed the industry. Flights across the Middle East have been cancelled, disrupting thousands of services so far, as international carriers continued to suspend their services. By 05.00 GMT, according to the analysts Cirium, almost 1,700 flights to the Middle East had been cancelled, although it warned that the figures were artificially low owing to limited data coming from Iran and the United Arab Emirates, where hundreds more flights were scheduled on Monday. Cancellations most affected the Gulf carriers, all three of which now connect passengers worldwide via their hubs. Emirates, based in Dubai, and Etihad Airways, in Abu Dhabi, said flights to and from their hubs would not operate until late Tuesday morning, while Qatar Airways has suspended operations as long as Qatari airspace remains closed. Emirates and Etihad were poised to resume selected flights on Monday evening, offering hope that wider passenger travel could resume. The UAE’s aviation authority said it would allow “special flights” across the country’s airports to operate to allow stranded passengers to depart. An Emirates spokesperson said passengers who could travel would be notified and that other flights remained suspended. Almost 2,800 flights were cancelled on Saturday, and 3,156 cancelled on Sunday, according to the tracking platform FlightAware. Some flights to Cyprus have also been affected, with easyJet cancelling its return services between Paphos and Larnaca and the UK on Monday and Tuesday after a drone hit the RAF base in Akrotiri. British Airways said it had cancelled Monday’s Larnaca service. Airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar was still virtually empty as of Monday, according to the flight-tracking website Flightradar24. Virgin Atlantic said that avoiding Iraqi airspace was affecting flight times to Asia. It has cancelled Dubai flights from London until Wednesday but may resume Riyadh departures on Tuesday. The impact has spread far beyond the Middle East, with passengers stranded from Bali to Frankfurt. Air India cancelled flights on Sunday departing from Delhi, Mumbai and Amritsar for big cities in Europe and North America. Crew and pilots are now scattered across the world, complicating the process of resuming flights whenever airspace reopens. As many passengers struggled to find information on the status of planned journeys, gathering at some of the world’s busiest commercial airports amid widespread delays and cancellations, the uber-wealthy found an alternative route out of the Middle East. “Saudi Arabia is the only real option for people who want to get out of the region right now,” Ameerh Naran, the chief executive of the private jet brokerage Vimana Private, told Semafor, putting the cost of private jets from Riyadh to Europe at up to $350,000 (£260,000). The region and its airlines have become used to travel disruption over the past few years, but such a prolonged closure of the skies – more than 24 hours – and the shutdown of all three big Gulf transit hubs was unprecedented, analysts said. Shares in Tui, Europe’s largest travel company, dropped 9%, while the British Airways owner IAG was down 5%. Tui said it would be contacting all customers due to travel to the Middle East in the coming week, while still making arrangements to bring people back from Dubai and Qatar. BA has told passengers due to fly out from London to the Gulf, Israel or Jordan until 15 March that they can delay travel free of charge. It has cancelled all flights to the Gulf until the end of Tuesday. Up to 25,000 passengers could have flown on 74 UK flights to the Middle East on Monday, according to Cirium. Some flights to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have also been cancelled but Egypt flights are so far unaffected. Shares in airlines including Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Qantas and Singapore also fell by between 5% and 9%. Hotelier Accor and the cruise company Carnival also fell sharply. US airline shares fell as Wall Street opened, with United Airlines down 3%. Carriers around the world face higher oil prices after Brent crude jumped by as much as 13% to hit $80 a barrel, with analysts predicting they could climb as high as $100. Brent crude was later up 6% on the day, at $77 a barrel. “For everyone the main impact will come through oil prices, which will obviously take a bump upwards,” said the aviation adviser Bertrand Grabowski. The Gulf is a leading intersection for air cargo, putting further pressure on trade lanes on top of disruption at sea. AP and Reuters contributed to this report
Shabana Mahmood’s decision to tell every person applying for asylum from Monday that their status is temporary could undermine the refugee convention, the Law Society has said. The body representing solicitors in England and Wales said the home secretary’s move to review every refugee’s status after 30 months was “in tension” with the UK’s legal obligations. Keir Starmer’s government is preparing to announce a series of hardline policies that are meant to deter people from travelling to the UK to claim asylum. Mahmood, who is closely associated with the Blue Labour wing of her party, has faced a backlash from MPs, peers and affiliated unions for pressing on with the policies after Labour came third in last week’s Gorton and Denton byelection. From Monday, refugees will need to get renewed permission to stay or apply for a visa route like any other authorised immigrant, including paying associated fees. The policy shift is modelled on Denmark’s strict system. The Law Society of England and Wales’s president, Mark Evans, said: “The rules announced today will create prolonged uncertainty for people who want to live free from danger and have been recognised by the government as needing protection. “The changes stand in tension with article 34 of the refugee convention, under which the UK has agreed to facilitate as far as possible the assimilation and naturalisation of refugees.” Article 34 of the convention, which was signed by the UK in 1951, reads: “The contracting states shall as far as possible facilitate the assimilation and naturalisation of refugees. They shall in particular make every effort to expedite naturalisation proceedings and to reduce as far as possible the charges and costs of such proceedings.” Organisations working closely with refugees have expressed concern at the proposals, saying they will re-traumatise people who have come to the UK from war zones and suffered torture. Sophie McCann, the forced displacement and protection advocacy adviser at Médecins Sans Frontières UK, said the development was “another cruel development that will harm people who have fled the horrors of conflict, violence and persecution”. “Embedding prolonged uncertainty and fear within the asylum system will create further psychological harm and inhibit refugees’ – including our patients’ – ability to heal from their experiences and rebuild their lives with dignity,” she said. Natasha Tsangarides, an associate director at Freedom from Torture, said: “This policy change will affect men, women and children who have been recognised by our government as needing protection from torture and war. They have fled countries like Iran and Sudan for standing up for the same freedoms we cherish in Britain. “A grant of refugee status should be a moment of celebration – a gateway to a new life and the chance to put the horrors they have endured behind them. Now, they will have to relieve that trauma every 30 months.” The Home Office has been approached for comment.