Monday briefing: Why the US moved to oust Venezuela’s president
Good morning. Over the weekend, the US attacked Venezuela with a series of airstrikes and captured the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, along with his wife, Cilia Flores, seizing them from their bedrooms and flying them to New York on Saturday evening. Donald Trump announced that the US would “run” Venezuela for an unspecified period. Perhaps most striking was how explicit Trump was about the reasoning behind the military action. He said the aim was for US companies to take control of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure for their own benefit. “We have the greatest oil companies in the world, the biggest, the greatest, and we’re going to be very much involved in it,” Trump said. The US president also told reporters that Venezuela’s vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, would remain in power only so long as she “does what we want”. He threatened a second, larger wave of military strikes if the country’s leaders refused to comply. Venezuelan officials have vowed defiance. At least 40 people, including civilians and soldiers, were reportedly killed in Saturday’s attack. How did we get here, and what happens next for Venezuela? Today, I speak to the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips. That’s after the headlines. Five big stories Venezuela | The prospect of the United States seizing direct control of Venezuela appeared to recede on Sunday after the shocking seizure of President Nicolás Maduro – but US officials said Washington was keeping a 15,000-strong force in the Caribbean and might make a fresh military intervention if Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, did not accommodate their demands. EU | Keir Starmer has said closer ties with the EU single market are preferable to a customs union in his clearest sign yet that the UK government is seeking to further deepen links with Brussels. Weather | Transport delays, treacherous driving conditions and school closures will greet many people as they return to work and study after the Christmas break, with winter weather warnings in place across the UK. Crans-Montana fire | Investigators have identified the last 16 people who died in the New Year’s Eve bar fire at the Swiss mountain resort of Crans-Montana, police said on Sunday. Germany | German leftwing militants protesting over the climate crisis and AI have claimed responsibility for an arson attack that cut power to tens of thousands of households in Berlin. In depth: ‘The images look like Baghdad in 2003’
The relationship between the US and Venezuela began to deteriorate in the late 1990s, following the election of the now deceased socialist firebrand Hugo Chávez. According to Tom Phillips, an early, US-backed attempt to remove Chávez in a 2002 coup deepened suspicion and hostility on both sides. But after Chávez died of cancer in 2013, relations worsened significantly with the election of Nicolás Maduro as president. “He then led the country rapidly into economic meltdown, a mass migration crisis, and in an increasingly authoritarian direction,” Tom says, pointing in particular to the controversial 2018 election result. In 2019, shortly after Maduro was sworn in for a second term, the Trump administration launched what it called a “maximum pressure” campaign, combining sweeping sanctions with repeated military threats and an early effort to topple him. There had been signs of a thaw at the start of Trump’s second term. The US sent a special envoy, Richard Grenell, to Caracas for talks, deportation flights continued until very recently, and oil production involving the US company Chevron carried on. But tensions escalated sharply in the months running-up to this attack. Trump had sought a blockade of Venezuelan oil, expanded sanctions against the Maduro government, and staged more than two dozen strikes on vessels the US alleges were involved in trafficking drugs, killing more than 110 people. “Everyone is flabbergasted that this has happened,” Tom says. “There have been months of threats and significant military hardware deployed to the region. But most observers, and probably Maduro himself, thought this was a bluff or a negotiating tactic to force him from power or trigger a military coup. “Instead, it’s come to this, in such a spectacular fashion. The images from Saturday look like Baghdad in 2003.” *** Drill baby drill In 2020, a US federal court indicted Maduro on narco-terrorism and other charges, accusing him of running a scheme to ship tonnes of cocaine to the US through what prosecutors described as the Cartel de los Soles. Maduro has always denied the allegations. The superseding indictment unsealed last weekend, immediately after his capture, closely mirrors those 2020 charges. After Maduro and his wife arrived in New York, the Trump administration released images of his arrival into custody, known as a “perp walk.” The move was widely seen as an effort to further discredit him as Venezuela’s leader. Trump’s team has sought to frame the operation as a war on drug trafficking. But how credible is that explanation? “Maduro is widely believed to have stolen the 2024 election, but serious analysts don’t see convincing evidence that he is a narco-terrorist or that he is deliberately flooding the US with drugs,” Tom says. The audacious military operation comes just weeks after the Nobel peace prize was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. But instead of backing Machado, or the popular opposition figure Edmundo González, Trump sidelined them, declaring that the US would temporarily take control of Venezuela while American companies moved in to run its oil infrastructure. “The word democracy is hardly mentioned at all,” Tom says. “The Trump administration has made it very clear that this is about drugs, it’s about migration, and they’ve said this openly, it is about their desire to further exploit and profit from Venezuelan oil. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves on earth.” *** The United States of Venezuela In characteristically Trumpian fashion, the US president announced that the US would now “run” Venezuela, without explaining how, or on what legal basis, such an arrangement would work. When I spoke to Tom, he was travelling to the Colombian border with Venezuela. He said that while about 15,000 US troops are deployed across the wider region, none are now stationed inside Venezuela. “It’s mind-boggling,” Tom said. “Trump declares ‘we are going to run Venezuela now’, but it’s completely unclear how he plans to do that, especially given his supposed aversion to putting boots on the ground. How do you govern a country of nearly 30 million people with vast territory, including a huge Amazon region?” Venezuela, it’s worth noting, is roughly twice the size of Iraq. When Trump was pushed at his press conference about past failures in US nation-building, he brushed them aside, saying: “That’s where we had different presidents. With me, that’s not true,” he said. “With me, we’ve had a perfect track record of winning.” But analysts are less convinced. “Even if you were prepared to put those 15,000 troops on the ground in Venezuela, most people don’t think that would be sufficient to occupy and control such a complex territory,” Tom said. The prospect of the United States seizing direct control of Venezuela appeared to recede on Sunday, but US officials said Washington was keeping 15,00 troops in the Caribbean and might make a fresh military intervention if Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, did not accommodate their demands. Trump’s military action and declarationshave drawn mixed reactions across Latin America. “There have been messages of support, Chile’s incoming far-right president has backed the move,” Tom said. “But more moderate leaders, including Brazil’s President Lula and Chile’s outgoing president Gabriel Boric, have condemned it. There has also been real concern among diplomats in the region about the US simply going into and taking its leader, irrespective of his democratic credentials.” Globally, the response has followed a similar pattern. The operation has been condemned by Russia, China and Iran, and much of the global south, while Europe’s reaction has been muted. UK prime minister Keir Starmer declined to criticise the action, while stressing that Britain played no role in it. In the US, the action was welcomed by Republicans, but widely condemned by Democrats. The former US vice-president, Kamala Harris, described it as “unlawful and unwise”, actions that “do not make America safer, stronger, or more affordable”. *** Succession The country’s supreme court has declared the vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, to be the interim leader. And “it seems from the press conference that Trump is prepared to do business with her even though she was one of Maduro’s closest allies,” Tom said. What remains unclear is in what capacity. Will Washington effectively govern Venezuela through Maduro’s former deputy? Or will another senior figure, perhaps from the military, emerge, leading to a pro-US interim regime? Amid the confusion, Tom says one thing is clear. “There’s no sign that the US is prepared to help Machado and González return from exile,” he said. “Trump was very dismissive of Machado in the press conference, which poured cold water on the Venezuelan opposition. They had hoped that once Maduro was gone they would be helped to take power.” Analysis from the New York Times suggests the US may be pursuing a form of “guardianship”, dictating Venezuela’s political and economic direction through an interim government, backed by the threat of renewed military action. “Trump said that was the first wave of attacks and that there might be a second wave of bigger attacks ‘if we don’t get what we want,’” Tom said. Whether that threat alone is enough remains uncertain. Rodríguez, in televised address, had initially refused to comply. But she struck a more conciliatory tone in her most recent public statement on Sunday, offering “to collaborate” with the Trump administration, in what could be a major shift in relations between the governments. “Perhaps he’s prepared to call it a day with the images of Maduro in a blindfold and handcuffs projecting a narrative that he has affected some kind of political change,” Tom added, “but in reality it may remain close to the status quo with just a new Chavista leader calling the shots.” Trump’s press conference fell on the anniversary of the US capture of Panama’s dictator Manuel Noriega, who was flown into American custody after being accused of drug trafficking. But it was clear in that press conference that Trump is not interested in just invoking history, he is set on making it. And his actions will deepen fears that his talk of using military force to seize the Panama canal, take control of Greenland, or even make Canada the 51st state, can no longer be laughed off. 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“Trump warns of ‘big price to pay’ if Caracas fails to toe line,” is the splash on the Guardian. “PM faces revolt by Labour’s Maduro apologists,” says the Mail. “Trump sets sights on Greenland,” is the lead story at the Telegraph, while the Metro quips of Maduro: “Welcome to New York...and have a nice stay.” “Trump issues warning to Venezuela’s new leader,” says the Times, as the FT opts for: “Trump piles fresh pressure on Venezuela.” “Starmer plots course for a softer Brexit - as leadership rival circle,” writes the i paper, while the Express has “Fears Starmer is plotting a ‘full-blown Brexit betrayal.’” Meanwhile the Sun runs with: “AJ’s pledge to families of ‘brothers,’” and the Mirror: “Jesy’s twins agony.” Today in Focus
Trump ousts Venezuela’s President The president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, was captured, flown to the US and is facing trial in New York. What does it mean for the country – and the world? Julian Borger, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent, explains to Annie Kelly why it could be the beginning of the end for our rules-based international order. Cartoon of the day | Tom Gauld
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
For many visitors, Ōkunoshima’s hundreds of semi-tame rabbits are a delight – but it’s the people who care for them that stay with you. As retiree Koji Yamamoto puts it, watching grey rabbits nibble pellets he’s left out, “There isn’t much natural vegetation, so I thought it would be a good idea to come regularly and feed them, especially during the winter when there aren’t many tourists.” Volunteers like him quietly keep the island’s fragile ecosystem going. The island’s dark past as a site for the production of chemical weapons – so secret it was not included in contemporaneous maps of Japan – has now turned into an Instagram-friendly present and a reminder of how humans and animals can forge gentle, unexpected partnerships. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply