Wednesday briefing: What Europe’s silence over Venezuela says about its fear of Trump
Good morning. The dramatic seizure of Nicolás Maduro from Caracas by US forces, to face trial in New York, has sent diplomatic shock waves around the world. For European leaders, it has exposed an uncomfortable dilemma: how to welcome the removal of an authoritarian ruler without endorsing an action that many legal experts say tramples over international law. Politicians in opposition, of course, are freer to speak their minds. In the UK, the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, said that “where the legal certainty is not yet clear, morally I do think it was the right thing to do”, while Liberal Democrat Ed Davey demanded that Keir Starmer condemn what he unequivocally described as an “illegal action in Venezuela”. That freedom is not always afforded to those in power, whose calculations are shaped by the realpolitik of international diplomacy. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to our diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, about how European governments have responded to the US intervention – and what their careful, often coded language reveals about Europe’s priorities, its anxieties, and the limits of its leverage in dealing with Donald Trump. First, the headlines. Five big stories Greenland | Donald Trump and his advisers are looking into “a range of options” in an effort to acquire Greenland, noting in a White House statement on Tuesday that using the US military to do so is “always an option”. UK politics | The government must find ways to reconnect emotionally with voters, Keir Starmer’s chief of staff is said to have warned cabinet ministers, in a meeting where the prime minister said they were in “the fight of our lives”. Crans-Montana fire | Authorities in Crans-Montana have said the bar that caught fire in the Swiss ski resort on New Year’s Eve, killing 40 mainly young partygoers, had not been inspected by safety officers for the past five years. Spain | A foundation representing Princess Leonor, the 20-year-old heir to the Spanish throne, has warned that scammers are using AI-generated videos of the princess posted by fake profile pages to cheat social media users out of money. US politics | The Trump administration has abandoned efforts to combat child exploitation, human trafficking and cartels as it diverts thousands of law enforcement personnel to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Democratic senators said in a letter to the White House. In depth: Why Europe is biting its tongue over Venezuela
If the reaction from Europe has felt muted, even evasive, that is largely by design, Patrick Wintour tells me. The implication behind most of the response, he says, is, “We don’t agree with it, but we’re not going to say anything about it, because there’s no value in doing so – in that it’s not going to serve any practical purpose.” *** How have European leaders reacted? European leaders have broadly welcomed the end of Maduro’s rule, while avoiding explicitly endorsing how it came about. Statements from Brussels, London and Paris have stressed the need for a “peaceful and democratic transition”, repeatedly invoking the importance of international law – without specifying whether they believe the US breached it. Patrick says France has gone furthest in voicing concern, warning that the operation violated the principle of non-use of force, while Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, described the intervention as legitimate. Downing Street has been among the most cautious, he says. “The UK position has been more,‘We believe in international law, but we say this largely in the abstract, and we don’t apply any kind of judgment’.” *** What’s behind this public response? Patrick says much of Europe’s restraint is driven by a single overriding priority: Ukraine. European governments are determined not to antagonise Trump at a moment when his backing is still seen as crucial to any future security guarantees for Kyiv. Public criticism, officials believe, would achieve very little practically, but could risk undermining private influence. This is especially true of the UK, where Patrick tells me the government is “absolutely determined to ensure that America plays an active role in providing security guarantees in the event of a peace settlement. Anything that gets in the way of that by angering Trump is really not going to fly inside the Foreign Office or the Cabinet Office.” There is also uncertainty about what the US intends to do next in Venezuela. While Washington has removed Maduro, it has not dismantled their state or security apparatus, in what appears to be a deliberate attempt to avoid civil war – a lesson Patrick says has been drawn from past US military interventions in Iraq and Libya. It is, he says, “a sort of partial regime change … They decapitated the regime by capturing the leader, but left the body still functioning.” *** Doesn’t this leave European leaders looking weak? Critics argue that such caution carries its own risks. Emily Thornberry, the Labour chair of the foreign affairs select committee, has warned that failing to condemn the operation could embolden China and Russia to pursue similar actions in their own spheres of influence. Health secretary Wes Streeting, meanwhile, has described the episode as a “morbid symptom” of a rules-based international order that is “disintegrating before our eyes”. But Patrick noted that the UK foreign policy establishment remains deeply reluctant to jeopardise their security, intelligence and defence relationship with Washington – a relationship still seen as the bedrock of Britain’s national security. This isn’t a new position for the UK, although the character of Trump has thrown it into sharp relief. Patrick says every president has posed the dilemma: “To what extent do you need to assert yourselves to gain respect, or do you need to flatter and hope that that will give you some private influence?” *** How should Europe handle US threats to Greenland? The bigger question, Patrick argues, is whether Europe is approaching a genuine red line. A US move against Greenland – a sovereign territory of Nato member Denmark – would represent something fundamentally different, threatening the alliance itself and forcing a far more unified European response. “Denmark is not Venezuela. There has been a democratic election, and Greenland itself has chosen to be part of Denmark – so it’s not comparable,” Patrick says. More broadly, Trump’s actions point towards a world carved up into spheres of influence, where great powers decide outcomes and medium-sized states are sidelined. Europe, he says, is being forced to confront an uncomfortable truth: “Europe itself must decide whether it wants to be a superpower – and if it does, it can’t just be a soft power or a trading superpower. It has to be a defence superpower.” What else we’ve been reading
It’s not easy being a northerner in spaces surrounded by southerners, my colleague Robyn Vinter notes, but she writes beautifully on why she holds tightly to her identity in the face of ridicule and outright hostility. Aamna Keith Stuart on our games desk has this very straightforward list of the 15 best PS5 games to play in 2026. I can vouch for Baldur’s Gate 3, and am itching to try Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. Martin Five years after the attack on the US Capitol, Donald Trump and other Republicans are attempting to rewrite history, Guardian US reporter Sam Levine reports. Aamna I long ago stopped obsessively collecting physical music media but remain intrigued by the reissue repackage industry. Paul Sinclair at SDE has a highly detailed look at what box set fanatics can expect in 2026 from the likes of McCartney, Bowie, Prince, Queen et al. Martin Venezuela’s gold reserves are kept in a basement in the Bank of England. The US shock attack and kidnap of its leader raises the uncomfortable question: who now owns them? Richard Partington investigates. Aamna Sport
Football | West Ham are drifting towards the most gutless of relegations after Morgan Gibbs-White seals a late 2-1 win for Nottingham Forest at a half-empty London Stadium. Cricket | England hit the wall on day three at the Sydney Cricket Ground, with dropped catches and some scattergun bowling lengths; as Australia batted all day to reach 518 for seven, 134 runs ahead on first innings. Football | Ole Gunnar Solskjær could make a shock return to Manchester United as interim manager, with Jason Wilcox, the director of football, considering him a prime candidate for the role. The front pages
“UK and France seal ‘coalition’ deal to send troops to postwar Ukraine” is the Guardian splash. Top story at the Times is “UK agrees to boots on the ground in Ukraine” and the i paper has “Boots on the ground: UK military bases in Ukraine to keep peace”. The FT runs with “Venezuela’s oil output faces ‘collapse’ as US naval blockade chokes exports”. “Drink-drive changes to kill off rural pubs” leads the Telegraph, while the Mirror has “Drive to safety’” and the Sun “One for the road”. The Mail has “Police blunder to defy belief”. Today in Focus
The Palestine Action hunger strikers close to death Three activists awaiting trial are refusing food and their health is failing rapidly. Will the government intervene? Haroon Siddique reports. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
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