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Middle East crisis live: Iran warns US blockade of strait of Hormuz would violate ceasefire

More than 32 million people worldwide could be plunged into poverty by the economic fallout from the Iran war, with developing countries expected to be hit hardest. In a report issued amid doubts over a fragile ceasefire, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said the world was facing a “triple shock” involving energy, food and weaker economic growth, reports the Guardian’s Richard Partington. The agency tasked with tackling poverty said the conflict was reversing gains in international development, with the impact expected be felt unevenly across regions. Alexander De Croo, administrator of the UNDP and former prime minister of Belgium, said: A conflict like this is development in reverse. Even if the war stops, and a ceasefire is obviously very very welcome, but the impact is already there. You will see an enduring impact, especially in the poorer countries, where you push people back into poverty.” Energy prices have surged since the first US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz has choked oil and gas supplies to the world economy. With a knock-on impact on fertiliser supplies and global shipping, experts warn that a “food security timebomb” has been set for the developing world. See the full report here:

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Strait of Hormuz blockade explained: why is Trump threatening it now and will it increase the price of oil?

Donald Trump has said the US will begin a blockade of the strait of Hormuz, after ceasefire talks with Iran ended without an agreement over the weekend. The strait has emerged as Iran’s most effective weapon in its asymmetric war with the US. Since 28 February, the US and Israel have pounded Iran, striking thousands of targets and killing dozens of the country’s most senior leaders. Iran has responded by effectively closing the strait – a vital waterway through which about 20% of global oil moves though in normal times – driving up oil prices and fuelling fears of a surge in inflation. The threat from the president has now left global markets in another period of uncertainty, after they ended last week optimistic that negotiations between Washington and Tehran might result in an end to the chaos that has wracked the world economy for more than six weeks. What has Trump announced about the strait of Hormuz blockade On Sunday, the president posted to social media: “The United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” Accusing Iran of “WORLD EXTORTION”, Trump threatened any person who attacked the US vessels would be “BLOWN TO HELL!” Trump’s sweeping threat to blockade “any and all” ships appeared to have been scaled down hours after his announcement, after US Central Command (Centcom) saying the blockade would be confined to vessels transiting through Iranian ports – and that it would permit passage of ships headed to ports belonging to America’s Gulf allies. Centcom said the blockade would come into effect at 10am ET (2pm GMT). Trump told Fox News that allies, many of whom he has criticised for failing to back the war, wanted to help with the operation in the strait. The Guardian understands the UK will not be involved in any blockade of the strait and Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese has said the country was not asked to participate. Why would Trump threaten to block the strait of Hormuz if his goal is to reopen it? Reports indicate that the reopening of the strait was one of the major sticking points in the weekend negotiations between the US and Iran. Tehran has indicated that it would like to retain control of the waterway after the war has finished, and has floated a plan to charge a fee of up to $2m a ship that transit through the waterway. Trump and other world leaders have rejected such a plan as an attack on “freedom of navigation.” Despite Trump’s claims that reopening the waterway is not his responsibility, the president is under pressure to resolve the issue before the continued closure of the strait unleashes an even greater crisis for the global economy. If Trump’s strategy succeeds, he will eliminate Iran’s greatest point of leverage in negotiations and clear the strait again for global trade, potentially lowering oil prices. How would the blockade work? The US military has not offered many details yet, including how many warships will enforce it, whether warplanes will be used and whether any Gulf allies will assist in the effort. Experts say it’s unlikely the US military would fire missiles or other weapons at them, given the risk of an environmental disaster. The most likely option is the US navy will try to force vessels to change course through threats, and if that doesn’t work, they will launch armed boarding parties to take physical control of the ships, experts say. “Trump wants a quick fix. The reality is, this mission is difficult to execute alone and likely unsustainable over the medium to long-term,” said Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. What will the blockade do to the oil price? Experts say the blockade could lead to higher oil prices but much depends on its “scope and implementation.” Kevin Book, the managing director of research at research firm ClearView Energy Partners, said that leaner volumes generally mean tighter markets and higher prices. “How Tehran responds matters, too. Iranian and/or Houthi reprisals against Gulf producers’ alternative routes could drive prices still higher,” Book said. By closing the strait to vessels carrying Iranian oil Trump could cut off one of the regime’s major sources of funding – but it could also have a short-term negative effect on global prices. About 100 tankers have transited the strait since the US and Israel started bombing Iran, most of them carrying Iranian oil products bound for China and India. The US has allowed Iran to continue these exports – and even lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea – in a bid to ease supply pressures. The hope was that continued supplies of Iranian oil could help keep prices in check, despite those profits going directly to the Iranian regime. Throttling those supplies could send prices higher still. After Trump’s announcement the price of US crude increased 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil rose 7% to $102.29. Brent crude, the international standard, has gone from roughly $70 per barrel before the war in late February to as high as $119 over the course of the conflict. What now for the US-Iran war ceasefire? Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said if any warships that approach the strait to enforce a blockade would be considered in breach of the current ceasefire and would be dealt with strongly. They insisted the strait remained under Iranian control. Trump on Sunday floated the possibility of a resumption of US strikes inside Iran, citing missile factories as one possible target. The Wall Street Journal reported that his administration was considering resuming strikes as a way to break the stalemate in peace talks.

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Israeli strike kills paramedic, says Lebanese Red Cross – as it happened

We’re closing this page now but our live coverage continues on a new blog here, including a snapshot of the latest key developments. Thanks for following along.

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Ukraine war briefing: Easter truce expires as both sides accuse the other of violations

A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to mark the Orthodox Easter formally expired on Monday, with both sides having accused each other of thousands of violations, despite a lull in Russian air raids. The truce lasted 32 hours, from 4pm (1300 GMT) on Saturday until the end of the day on Sunday. Both sides had agreed to observe the ceasefire, which the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, ordered on Thursday and which his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, proposed more than a week earlier. But as with a similar agreement last year, only relative calm reigned along the 1,200km (745-mile) frontline. The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said on Sunday it had recorded 2,299 ceasefire violations by 7am, including assaults, shelling and small drone launches. It said in the statement that the use of long-range drones, missiles or guided bombs had not been reported. A Ukrainian military officer told the Associated Press on Saturday that Russian forces had continued to attack their positions. Russia’s defence ministry said on Sunday it had recorded 1,971 ceasefire violations by Ukrainian forces, including drone strikes. The head of Russia’s Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said rescuers had uncovered the bodies of two civilians who were killed in a Ukrainian attack on Saturday afternoon. Zelenskyy congratulated Hungary’s Péter Magyar on his “resounding victory” in parliamentary elections on Sunday, pledging to work with the country’s new leadership “for the benefit of both nations”. “Congratulations to [Péter Magyar] and the TISZA party on their resounding victory … We are ready for meetings and joint constructive work for the benefit of both nations, as well as peace, security, and stability in Europe,” the Ukrainian president said on X. The EU will be waiting to see how Magyar changes Hungary’s approach to Ukraine. Orbán repeatedly frustrated EU efforts to support the neighbouring country in its war against Russia’s full-scale invasion, while cultivating close ties to Putin and refusing to end Hungary’s dependence on Russian energy imports. The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said on Sunday that Russian troops still needed to take control of 17-18% of Ukraine’s disputed Donetsk region, the state news agency Tass reported. Russian forces would continue fighting in Ukraine after the Orthodox Easter truce ended, he said. Pjotr Sauer travelled to Bucha to report on the Ukrainians drawn in online by Russian intelligence services, promised money or coerced into carrying out sabotage attacks against their own country.

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Magyar celebrates as Orbán’s 16-year rule ends - as it happened

The opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, has won the Hungarian parliamentary election, bringing an end to Viktor Orbán’s 16-year grip on power, in a result that is likely to rattle the White House and reshape the country’s relationship with the EU. With 98.74% of the vote counted, Magyar’s Tisza party was projected to have won 138 of the 199 seats in the country’s parliament, giving them a super-majority in the near parliament. The super-majority would let the new government reverse some of the changes made by Orbán and Fidesz, and try to unlock EU funds frozen in a longstanding dispute with the bloc, with a visit to Brussels expected as one of the first foreign trips of the new PM. In a speech to his supporters, Magyar promised to bring Hungary back to the main fold of European politics, pledging pro-EU and Nato course of the country after years of isolation and awkward relationship under Orbán (22:53, 23:37). The historic win prompted wild celebrations on the streets of Hungary’s capital city Budapest, with tens of thousands taking to the streets to mark the occasion (21:53, 22:17, 22:22, 22:33, 22:35). The election was being closely watched around the world as a test of the resilience of the Maga movement and the global far right, many of whom have long looked to Orbán as an inspiration and sought to follow his playbook. Here is our main story of the night by Ashifa Kassam and Flora Garamvolgyi: And from me, Jakub Krupa, it’s all for tonight. It’s an honour to be in Budapest and guide you through the events of the night on the blog. See you tomorrow morning for more reactions, but in the meantime – good night! If you have any comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.

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Péter Magyar: Hungary’s next leader energised voters but is ‘a dark horse’

As a child growing up in Budapest, Péter Magyar had a poster of Viktor Orbán – at the time a leading figure in the country’s pro-democracy movement – hanging above his bed. Orbán was one of several political figures who adorned his bedroom, Magyar told a podcast last year, hinting at his excitement over the changes sweeping the country after the collapse of communism. Now Magyar, 45, has been the driving force behind the ousting of Orbán, whose 16 years in power transformed the country into a “petri dish for illiberalism”. Few could have predicted the meteoric rise of Magyar and his Tisza party. “He has built an opposition movement at amazing speed,” said Gábor Győri of Policy Solutions, a Budapest-based political research institute. “Never, since the history of this post-transition Hungary, have we seen a party rise this quickly.” Conversations with those who know Magyar often alternate between admiration and antipathy. Many praise the tremendous movement he has built and the discipline he has shown as he crisscrosses the country, giving up to six speeches a day, while also describing him as someone with a short temper and a style that can be abrasive at times. Others see him as the perfect fit for the magnitude of the moment. “I think, like all politicians, he can be a difficult person,” said Tamás Topolánszky, a film-maker who was part of a team that spent the past 18 months following Magyar for a film on the wider change sweeping Hungarian society. Topolánszky described Magyar as authentic and passionate, but also someone who could be impatient at times. “I think that this is something that we Hungarians now see was necessary to get us to this point.” From behind his lens, Topolánszky tracked Magyar as he began turning up in villages and towns across Hungary, steadily chipping away at the apathy that had long characterised Hungarian politics. “The energy at these rallies was something I’ve never experienced before,” he said. Adding to Magyar’s singular rise are his deep entanglements with Orbán’s Fidesz party. Much of his life has been spent hobnobbing among its elite inner circles. His close friends have included Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, and in 2006 Magyar married Judit Varga, a former justice minister for Fidesz. He served as a Hungarian diplomat in Brussels and held senior positions in state entities. Magyar catapulted into the limelight in 2024 after it emerged that Orbán’s government – which for years had built its brand on defending Christian families and protecting children – had pardoned a man convicted of helping to cover up a sex abuse scandal at a children’s home. Varga, who by then was Magyar’s ex-wife, resigned, along with Hungary’s president, Katalin Novák. Magyar responded to the news with a blistering post on social media accusing Fidesz officials of scapegoating the two women, or as he wrote, “hiding behind women’s skirts”. He then continued to speak up, rattling Hungarian society as a prominent insider who was now laying bare the workings of what he described as a rotten system. In Magyar’s telling, Fidesz was a “political product” that had been marketed to citizens while officials expanded their power and wealth at the expense of ordinary Hungarians. The message resonated strongly, landing as many in the country were grappling with the soaring cost of living, fraying public services and salaries that had long been stagnant. After an estimated 35,000 people turned up to a protest helmed by Magyar in March 2024, he launched his movement. While his status as a former Fidesz member had grabbed people’s attention, it proved complicated for his new political life. In Topolánszky’s documentary, Spring Wind, Magyar was asked: “Who are you friends with now?” After a pause, he answered: “That’s a good question. It’s hard to say whether you have real friends in a situation like this.” Despite more than two years of campaigning and a 240-page election manifesto, the details of what exactly Magyar will do remain vague. Much of this is by design: he ran a tight campaign, staying on-message as he has sought to avoid providing fodder for the estimated 80% of Hungary’s media that is controlled by Fidesz loyalists. “He is very much a dark horse,” said Győri. “We don’t know much about him.” With the exception of migration, where he has vowed to take a harder line than Orbán by scrapping the country’s guest worker scheme, Magyar has committed to doing away with many of the most problematic parts of Orbán’s programme. He has vowed to restore democratic checks and balances, repair relations with the EU to unlock frozen EU funds and crack down on corruption. He has promised to end the dependence on Russian energy by 2035 while striving for “pragmatic relations” with Moscow. When it comes to Ukraine, Magyar said he would continue Orbán’s opposition to sending arms to the country and fast-tracking EU entry for Kyiv. Even so, it would not take much to reset Hungary’s relationship with the bloc, said Győri. “I think what people underestimate is that if Hungary stops vetoing vital EU action in the European Council, that’s a major breakthrough,” he said. “You don’t have to have Péter Magyar go out and say: ‘We’re enthusiastic about helping Ukraine or everything the EU does.’” In other key issues, such as the efforts by Orbán and his government to ban Pride events, Magyar has steered clear. “So gender and sexual minorities, he just doesn’t address,” said Győri. “Everybody assumes that he will be a lot friendlier on these issues than the Fidesz government was, and it’s probably true, but he just doesn’t talk about them. So this is speculative.” Looming over the victory is the question of what a Tisza-led government will realistically be able to do. During Fidesz’s 16 years in power, the party stacked the Hungarian state, media and judiciary with loyalists; how they will respond to a change in government remains up in the air. “When it comes to Péter Magyar, there are both question marks and exclamation marks,” said Ákos Hadházy, a Hungarian independent MP and longtime critic of Orbán. “But Hungarian society has accepted this.”

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Trump says US will blockade strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

Donald Trump has said the US will begin blockading the strait of Hormuz in an attempt to take control of the strategic waterway from Iran in the aftermath of failed peace negotiations between the countries in Pakistan. The US president also threatened to bomb Iran’s water treatment facilities, power plants and bridges if Tehran did not agree to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, the key sticking point between the two sides. Trump’s surprise announcement of a blockade came after face-to-face peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad that lasted 21 hours collapsed on Sunday morning. JD Vance, the vice-president and head of the US team, said Iran had refused to give up the possibility of developing nuclear weapons, while the Iranian delegates said Washington needed to do more to win their trust. Risking another increase in oil prices, Trump said he had instructed the US navy to begin “blockading any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the strait of Hormuz,” and he accused Iran of extortion with its own scheme of charging tolls to tankers. US Central Command announced the blockade would begin on Monday at 10am ET (2pm GMT). Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by declaring that if any warships approached the strait to enforce a blockade – usually considered an act of war – it would be considered a breach of the current ceasefire and would be dealt with strongly. They insisted the strait remained under Iranian control. Two US destroyers crossed and recrossed the strait without incident on Saturday, although Iranian media said they were threatened as they left. The US military said it was the start of a mine-clearance mission. Trump said US warships would “seek and interdict every vessel” that had paid Iran since the start of the conflict and begin de-mining the central section of the strait, previously declared a “hazardous area” by Tehran, although it is unclear how many mines have been laid. About 100 tankers have transited the strait since the US and Israel started bombing Iran, paying up to $2m each time for passage. Many were bound for China and India, carrying Iranian oil products, and chasing them down could complicate relations between the US and the importing nations. Oil prices rose in early market after Trump’s announcement of a blockade. The price of US crude oil rose 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil, the international standard, rose 7% to $102.29. The US and Iranian delegations left Pakistan soon after the talks ended. Vance said he spoke with Trump at least half a dozen times during the talks, held during a 14-day ceasefire announced by the US, Israel and Iran overnight on 7 and 8 April. “We need to see an affirmative commitment that [Iran] will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” Vance said. “That is the core goal of the president of the United States, and that’s what we’ve tried to achieve through these negotiations.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, who led Tehran’s negotiators, said he and his colleagues had offered “constructive initiatives” while the US had been “unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations”. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said “excessive” US demands had hindered reaching an agreement, and the foreign ministry said more time was needed. “Naturally, from the beginning we should not have expected to reach an agreement in a single session,” the ministry’s spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said, according to the state broadcaster IRIB. Pakistani mediators called on the US and Iran to refrain from renewing hostilities and said they would try to arrange a fresh round of talks. “It is imperative that the parties continue to uphold their commitment to the ceasefire,” said Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar. Vance was accompanied by the US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. They met Ghalibaf and the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, for several negotiating sessions at the Serena hotel in Islamabad, with Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, also present. Iran’s delegation arrived on Friday dressed in black in mourning for the late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others killed in the war. They carried shoes and bags of children killed during the bombing of a school next to a military compound, the Iranian government said. A Pakistani source said the discussions, the highest-level direct contact between the US and Iran since 1979, were unpredictable in tone. “There were mood swings from the two sides, and the temperature went up and down during the meeting,” a Pakistani source said after the first round. In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump threatened to restart the bombing of Iran if a deal could not be agreed, and threatened to target the country’s water supply as well as its bridges and power generation. Trump said: “The only thing left, really, is their water, which would be very devastating to hit. I would hate to do it, but it’s their water, their desalinisation plans, their electric generating plants, which are very easy to hit.” The president was asked if gas and oil prices might be lower by the US midterms in November, an indication that attacking Iran was not an economic mistake. Prices “could be the same or maybe a little bit higher,” a non-committal Trump replied. In southern Lebanon, at least 11 people were killed and there were at least 30 Israeli strikes in the region, the country’s state news service said. At the Vatican, Pope Leo XIV called for a ceasefire after his Sunday prayers and said he felt “closer than ever” to Lebanon’s people. The war, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran six weeks ago, has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, 2,020 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. It has caused lasting damage to infrastructure in half a dozen Middle Eastern countries.