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Zelenskyy faces outrage over defence minister sacking as Starmer makes farewell Ukraine visit as UK PM – Europe live

Back to Ukraine, Sergii Koretskyi has just been confirmed by the Ukrainian parliament as the country’s new prime minister. He is the third prime minister since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, replacing Yulia Svyrydenko, who resigned earlier this week. Koretskyi told the parliament that Ukraine’s defence, economic stability and EU integration were among his key priorities, Reuters reported. But Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy explained his candidacy differently on Wednesday, telling reporters that “the priorities are clear – preparing for winter,” and Koretskyi – a former CEO the the state energy giant Naftogaz, was “the most prepared candidate” for the job.

Germany warns US against election interference with Maga-aligned grants scheme

Friedrich Merz has warned Donald Trump’s administration against interfering in German elections after the US state department announced a scheme to fund Maga-aligned causes in Europe. The German chancellor was responding to a US initiative offering grants of up to $3m (£2.2m) for European charities, thinktanks and individuals. The funding will be for those seeking to “address national sovereignty, migration, censorship and lawfare challenges in line with shared political philosophy, law and our common western civilizational heritage”. Amid growing concerns that the US is seeking to directly influence European politics, Merz said he did not want the US to interfere in German state elections in September. “For ‌our ‌part, we do ‌not interfere in American elections,” he told a press conference on Wednesday. “Conversely, I do not ‌want the American government or institutions close to the government to interfere in German ⁠elections.” Former US officials say the grant scheme is part of a months-long effort by the state department to repurpose US government funds to support far-right groups and potentially political parties in Europe. The language around who might be eligible to receive the money is ambiguous, one former state department official said. The announcement of the grants specifies that “individuals” and “governmental institution” (sic) can apply, without further detail as to whom or what these categories might include. Previous reporting has suggested that the state department under Trump is interested in funding political parties in Europe, but that it could be hampered by US laws around foreign assistance. On Wednesday, Merz highlighted that it was illegal to finance ‌political parties in Germany from abroad. The former state department official said: “There seems to be an effort by the state department to put the thumb on the scale of elections in Europe, giving an unfair advantage to rightwing parties with resources that they would ordinarily not get.” The initiative follows high-profile attacks on traditional allies in western European countries by US figures including the vice-president, JD Vance, on issues including migration, abortion and online safety initiatives. State department officials have also been busy forging links with European social conservative groups as well as far-right parties. In December, a new US national security strategy claimed Europe faced “civilisational erasure” and – in an apparent reference to populist movements – hailed the growing influence of “patriotic European parties”. And last month, the UK government rejected claims made by a senior US state department official at a rightwing conference in London that British police were making thousands of “freedom of speech” arrests. The allegation was made by Sarah B Rogers, who has become the public face of the US state department’s hostility to European liberal democracies and has previously been a guest of groups such as Britain’s Prosperity Institute, a thinktank that campaigns from an economically libertarian and socially conservative perspective. Earlier this year, Rogers pledged $500,000 in US funding to “promote digital freedom” during a visit to Ireland. The Guardian has asked the Prosperity Institute if it is likely to apply for one of the state department’s “Developing Civilizational Bonds, Democratic Resilience and Rule of Law in Europe” grants. The awards are being administered by a branch of the state department called the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. Though originally set up under President Jimmy Carter as an instrument of US policy during the cold war to challenge Soviet and rightwing authoritarian regimes, it has been repurposed under the Trump administration. Other groups in Europe that could stand to gain from the grants include Britain’s Free Speech Union, which has campaigned on issues that have become conservative causes célèbres, and organisations that have lost out on financial support as a result of Viktor Orbán’s loss of power in Hungary. A state department spokesperson said: “The Trump administration remains committed to defending democracy and human rights around the world, including in Europe. Our programming in Europe aims to support our European allies in defending those rights and principles, along with their civilizational self-confidence and sovereignty from those who seek to undermine them. “As we have repeatedly stated, our programs in Europe are solely meant to support human rights. These funds are not available to political parties.”

US strikes expand to northern Iran as Tehran fires on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan – Middle East crisis live

Reuters has reported that Benjamin Netanyahu will not travel to the US next ⁠week because the ‌funeral ‌of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has been ‌postponed until the end of the month, the Israeli prime minister’s office said. Earlier Israeli reports suggested Netanyahu had been set to fly to Washington on Saturday to attend memorial events for Graham, who died on Saturday, and potentially meet Donald Trump.

Thursday briefing: Why magical kingdoms feel more relatable than real‑world romance for today’s young women

Good morning. It was a hare or maybe a small deer that prompted my own excursion into romantasy fiction. Stuck on the train home from London to Glasgow, delayed by animals on the track, I was in need of some diversion and found it aplenty in Sarah A Parker’s bestseller When the Moon Hatched, the tale of a female assassin whose fate intertwines – yes, sometimes quite spicily – with a grieving dragon rider. Romantasy – a portmanteau of fantasy and romance – has become a commercial publishing phenomenon, the genre now dominating mainstream bestseller charts and powered by female authors and readers, the latter mainly under the age of 35. Fresh from her visit to the opening of Britain’s first bricks-and-mortar romantasy bookshop, I spoke to our books writer Emma Loffhagan about what she overheard when browsing the shelves, and what the success of this fictional genre tells us about the realities of young women’s dating lives. Before that, the headlines. Five big stories UK politics | Nigel Farage told senior figures in Reform UK he would need “a million a year” to cover lost earnings if he stood for parliament in the 2024 general election, sources have told the Guardian. Middle East | The US has fired on an oil tanker attempting to reach Kharg Island in the strait of Hormuz as part of its blockade on Iranian ports, as Tehran came under attack for the first time in this latest round of strikes. UK politics | Keir Starmer has defended his record as prime minister in an often emotional final outing at prime minister’s questions, which largely avoided political jibes in favour of tributes and questions. US news | Extreme heat warnings are in place for large swaths of the United States this week, as an unusual weather pattern eclipses record temperature highs. Ukraine | Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Ukraine’s popular defence minister, despite pleas from foreign partners and civil society for him to keep his job, as part of wide-ranging government reshuffle. In depth: ‘The escapism is a really big element’ While queueing to enter Bad Girl Books, which opened in Oxford earlier this month, Emma met women clutching totes emblazoned with subgenre slogans like “hot girls read smut” and swapping recommendations of their favourite fantasy world. For the sake of demographic accuracy, she counted two men in the 100-strong line, “both waiting patiently with their girlfriends”. While it’s uncertain where the term romantasy first originated, what is beyond doubt is that these layered tales of magical kingdoms, filled with dragons, fairies and ardent lovers, have blown up over the past three years. Sarah J Maas, for example, creator of the epic fairy romance series A Court of Thorns and Roses (or ACOTOR, should you require the BookTok hashtag), has sold more than 75m copies worldwide. And Rebecca Yarros, who wrote Onyx Storm, based around a training school for dragon riders, recorded the biggest UK opening week for a hardback fiction title in a decade. Within these fantastical worlds, romantic plotlines flourish, with a whole vocabulary developed in online fan communities to articulate their every nuance: analysing scenarios like enemies-to-lovers, soul mates or love triangles or “morally grey” heroes. Emma and I are speaking after author Wendy Jones caused an Instagram squall when she observed this week’s paperback bestseller charts are dominated – not for the first time – by stories that centre murdered women. “Perhaps the rise of romantasy shows that if there is another framing for women to read about themselves in a book, they’ll take it. But maybe crime fiction’s enduring appeal to women readers also shows they enjoy reading about resolutions they don’t get in real life from the criminal justice system.” *** A boost for publishing While romantasy communites have flourished on Instagram and Reddit, BookTok – the section of TikTok dedicated to book content – has provided the fuel for the genre’s explosion. “If you use the hashtag for a famous romantasy series,” says Emma, “you’ll find billions of views and fans ranking their favourite books and sharing theories.” When Emma was reporting for the Guardian from this year’s Hay festival, she listened to a TikTok representative describing how BookTok is the biggest community on the platform. TikTok in particular gets a very bad rep when it comes to attention spans, but there is a really thriving community on the platform that not only talks about romantasy, but all kinds of books.” This is evident at the cash register: in 2024, the UK’s publishing industry hit £1bn in revenue for the first time in years, a boost that can’t be uncoupled from the genre’s astonishing sales. Sales of science fiction and fantasy books rocketed last year, driven by romatasy’s popularity, with their value increasing by 41.3% between 2023 and 2024. And it’s welcome on the sofa, especially with reading enjoyment among children and young people in Britain falling to its lowest level in two decades, with the decline particularly pronounced in teenage boys. “Even if these are not the most literary novels of all time, it’s still reading,” says Emma. “It’s still not looking at a screen”. *** What appeals to younger women “What comes up a lot when you talk to women about what they like about romantasy,” says Emma, “is that the male characters are written in the female gaze. Most romantasy authors are women, and the romance storylines are very female centred. They flip expectations, and there’s often a lesbian love story as well.” Even in this post-Fifty Shades publishing landscape, I’ve heard a bunch of women discussing with pre-emptive apology their taste for “fairy porn”. I’m curious whether this is a response to literary snobbery about (younger) women’s reading choices. “Most people brought that stigma up without prompting ,” says Emma, of her Oxford visit – and they were keen to dispel it. “A lot of these books do have an element of spice – what they call sex – but many say the reason they were attracted to the genre was for the storylines, the friendships and the world building”. It also gives women an access point to fantasy, a traditionally male-heavy genre, both in authorship and fandom, while offering a playfully feminist upgrade to standard romance tropes. In my train reading, for example, an early spicy encounter was halted mid-throb because the hero wanted more emotional connection. I also wonder if younger women are devouring romantasy because it reflects something they don’t see in other genres. The last 20-something character I read in literary fiction was Joey in Jem Calder’s novel I Want You to Be Happy. She spent much of the novel miserably parsing text messages from her emotionally unavailable older lover in the cramped bedroom of her messy house-share. “The escapism is a really big element,” says Emma. “The storylines can feel a bit utopic – women are the heroes, they are slaying dragons – while also having these amazing love stories. It doesn’t feel like it can be achieved in the real world: young women being able to have it all.” *** Heteropessimism goes mainstream So the romantasy boom is happening at a moment when young women in particular feel disillusioned with modern heterosexual romance. Extremely online concepts like heteropessimism (noun: despair/disappointment at being attracted to the opposite sex) are now mainstream. The viral Vogue essay by Chanté Joseph titled Is Having a Boyfriend Embarrassing Now? prompted extensive debate about young women’s aspirations reaching beyond the heterosexual imperative of male validation. Meanwhile, day to day experiences and substantial survey data suggest an ideological gender gap, with young British women more likely to describe themselves as left wing than their male counterparts of similar age – who are nearly twice as likely to vote for Reform UK. “Men and women are diverging politically and socially,” says Emma. “If you are a young woman today and you see that young men are less progressive than they were 30 years ago, it’s really isolating.” Emma is 26. “It’s understandable that women want to date someone who shares their values, and the pessimism is something I definitely see in my age group among friends who date men.” There’s also a growing awareness of the ways that ubiquitous dating apps are infiltrating offline engagement.“There’s this online place where you meet people, so when you go out to a bar or a club, you’re not in that headspace. And if you do approach someone it’s seen as abnormal because ‘why are you doing that when you have a dating app?’” And that’s prompting a gradual pivot to algorithm-free connections: the current trend for in-person singles events gives her cause for optimism. “It’s also hopeful that we’re acknowledging that something feels broken in dating and gender relations, and those discussions are partly prompted by the popularity of romantasy itself.” For more from Emma and the Guardian books team, sign up here to get Bookmarks delivered into to your inbox every Sunday What else we’ve been enjoying Anna Liedtke, who joined a flotilla sailing from Europe to Gaza last autumn, is the first activist to speak publicly about her experience of being raped in Israeli detention. Emma Graham-Harrison tells her devastating story. Hettie I’m a huge horror fan, and this week’s Pushing Buttons newsletter delivered the nerd-level detail I appreciate on how tropes are reframed to reflect contemporary fears and why career instability is an emerging theme. Libby Settle in with Andy Beckett’s gripping Long Read about Paul Dacre, the former editor of the Daily Mail who invented modern culture war journalism: it’s utterly worth your time. Hettie World Cup 2026 England 1-2 Argentina | England suffered World Cup heartache with two late goals in seven minutes giving Argentina a comeback win and place in Sunday’s final against Spain. Messi led the Argentina players’ jubilant celebrations. Some of the squad displayed a banner which read “Las Malvinas son Argentinas” (“the Falkland Islands are Argentinian”), which could lead to disciplinary action from Fifa. France | Angelique Chrisafis reports on the brutal media postmortem following an anticlimatic exit for France, the early tournament favourites. “It’s sad. Infuriating. But that’s sport,” wrote Le Figaro. The global game | Faisa Mohamed and Alfie Packham spoke with football fans who don’t support their home country. Says Paul, a France fan from Sheffield: “Everybody thinks you should support England because you’re born in England. Nope.” Sport Cycling | Norwegian sprinter Søren Wærenskjold won the fastest-ever road stage, in a frenzied sprint into Nevers. Golf | English players are hoping Royal Birkdale will end nation’s long Open drought as they seek first home win in England since Tony Jacklin in 1969. Football | Aston Villa have signed the former Everton goalkeeper Emily Ramsey on a free transfer for the Women’s Super League. The front pages The Guardian’s front page headline today is “Farage told backers: I need a million a year to stand as MP”. The Times has “Burnham keeps wealth tax in play” and the FT’s splash is “City relieved as Burnham poised to choose Mahmood as his chancellor”. The i Paper leads with “Care workers to get NHS-style annual pay rises” and Metro has “Teen hackers posed £56bn threat to UK”. England’s loss to Argentina at the World Cup is the splash picture across most titles. The Telegraph says “England’s World Cup dream over”, the Sun’s take is “Wonderbawl” and the Mirror writes “Shattered”. The Latest Is a social media curfew for teens pointless? Sixteen- and 17-year-olds face an overnight social media curfew in an extension of the government’s social media ban for under-16s. Under the plan, aimed at reducing online harms, certain apps would be blocked by default from midnight to 6am. But the curfew will not be mandatory and teenagers can opt out, so will it achieve anything? Annie Kelly speaks to social affairs correspondent, Jessica Murray. Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad In the money-dominated, digital music industry, a new generation of zine-makers are finding ways to rebel. From hip-hop to indie pop and glamrock, a wave of devoted fans are reviving the old-school fanzine. Five decades on from their punk beginnings, this alternative medium that celebrates creativity for its own sake, not an exec’s bottom line, lives on. The old guard are just as inspired, with zine-makers from the 1990s renewing their enthusiasm for the art. As hip-hop musician and zine-r ExP puts it: “You’re almost definitely going to spend more time looking at a zine than anything you see scrolling … It’s the long way round, but the scenery is always better.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismisses Ukraine’s defence minister on eve of Starmer visit

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Ukraine’s popular defence minister, despite pleas from foreign partners and civil society for him to keep his job, as part of wide-ranging government reshuffle. In a post on Telegram Mykhailo Fedorov announced that he was leaving his position, saying it had been a “great honour” to serve the Ukrainian people. He was widely credited with transforming the defence ministry and reducing corruption. His six months in office coincided with a dramatic improvement in Ukraine’s position on the battlefield. Kyiv has repeatedly hit Russian oil refineries with long-range drones, embarrassing Vladimir Putin and creating nationwide fuel shortages. In his farewell message Fedorov, 35, listed his achievements. They included disabling Starlink for Russian troops and procuring more drones, used to destroy “enemy logistics” and to isolate occupied Crimea. He said he had “radically improved” the procurement system, saving the state budget “billions of dollars”. On the day of his departure the minister revealed Ukraine’s military had successfully tested a ballistic missile. “We fundamentally revised ⁠the technical requirements and achieved maximum accuracy. We reduced the ‌cost by 30%. Ukraine will enter a new league,” he said. The sacking appeared likely to overshadow Keir Starmer’s visit to Kyiv. The British prime minister, who is due to leave office this week, arrived on Thursday to mark the country’s support for Ukraine during his premiership. It is unclear if Fedorov will get another cabinet post. On Wednesday Ukraine’s parliament accepted the resignation of prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko after Zelenskyy said his government needed a reset. Her replacement is likely to be Serhiy Koretskyi, the head of the energy company Naftogaz. Fedorov’s removal has outraged his supporters, and comes amid rumours of a feud with Ukraine’s commander in chief Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi . Friends of Ukraine, including the former US ambassador in Moscow, Michael McFaul, this week urged Zelenskyy to keep Fedorov in his post. Serhii Sternenko, an aide to the sacked minister, wrote bitterly: “It is a pity our country today is significantly further from victory. Real reforms have not even been allowed to begin, although we have still managed to bring about a great deal of change.” He complained of “deliberate delays” and “bureaucratic obstacles”. The opposition politician Iryna Gerashchenko condemned the move. Speaking in Ukraine’s parliament before the news was confirmed, she asked: “How is it that Zelenskyy’s only sensible appointment, Minister Fedorov, is in limbo today?” Online commentators were scathing. Within minutes of the announcement, thousands posted messages backing Fedorov. One wrote, bluntly: “I don’t understand this decision.” Another added: “A minister who gave hope to millions and showed what can happen when you are interested in the victory of your country.” The deputy director of the Politika thinktank, Artem Bronzhukov, described the rapid turnover of defence ministers in Ukraine as “abnormal” in a country fighting a large-scale war against an enemy such as Russia. He said Fedorov had visibly improved the situation on the frontline and beyond in “three or four months”. “The results are noticeable in middle strikes, where Ukraine has turned the Crimean peninsula into a virtual island. Against this background, there is a credit of trust in Mykhailo Fedorov. He is supported by our western partners, he is supported by the progressive part of society,” Bronzhukov told Radio NV.

Revealed: Bucharest tourists hiring rentals that could collapse in an earthquake

Tourists in the Romanian capital, Bucharest, are staying in illegal accommodation listed on Airbnb and Booking.com in buildings considered so seismically vulnerable they could collapse in the event of a major earthquake, according to exclusive data shared with the Guardian. Analysis of data collected by Re:Rise, a Romanian organisation working on seismic risk reduction, identified at least 207 illegal tourist rental properties advertised across the two platforms in Bucharest at the end of May, with a combined capacity to host more than 1,000 visitors each night. Booking.com listed 116 of them, 47 were on Airbnb, and 44 listings were on both platforms. All were in buildings qualifying for the highest level of seismic risk. Bucharest is the most seismically vulnerable capital in the EU, with two major earthquakes in the last century, the most recent of which, in 1977, killed more than 1,500 people, injured more than 10,000 and brought down 32 buildings in under a minute. Experts believe another such quake is inevitable, warning that the damage could well exceed that of previous disasters because much of the city’s building stock has become structurally unsound in recent decades. In an effort to clamp down on unsafe housing in 2024, Romania outlawed short- and long-term rentals in high-risk buildings, classified as RS1. As a result, the capital has at least 404 such buildings where renting of any kind is illegal, with violations carrying fines of €1,000 (£850) to €2,000. As only a fraction of the city’s housing stock has been formally assessed for risk, experts believe the true scale of unsafe accommodation is probably greater. Those risks, however, are rarely made clear to tourists booking a place to stay. Neither Airbnb nor Booking.com requires hosts to declare whether their properties are structurally sound. “We tried everything possible to alert the platforms about this problem, but they told us it is the responsibility of the owners, not theirs,” said Matei Sumbasacu, a structural engineer and founder of Re:Rise. Ana Todor, who booked two Airbnb stays in apartments in RS1 buildings in 2025, said she felt the owners and platforms were “counting” on the fact that guests wouldn’t scrutinise the rules and regulations too closely. “But when I got there, the building looked terrible from the outside and didn’t give me a good feeling,” said Todor. “Descriptions that downplay the danger are a Hello Kitty plaster on a deep crack.” Todor says she was unaware renting in such buildings was illegal and says she would now factor the condition and location of a building into any booking decision. “The more I’ve learned since, the more my anxiety has grown. Every time I travel to Bucharest now, I don’t sleep well at all; I’m always on edge.” One listing found by the Guardian and Re:Rise on Airbnb, a two-bedroom “designer condo” in the city centre University Square, charges about €100 a night and accommodates up to six guests. A review by a family who stayed there last October noted that the building was “old and appears sketchy from the outside”. One superhost on Airbnb has 25 listings on the platform, of which at least six are in buildings deemed to be at the highest seismic risk, according to the analysis. A flat hosted by this person in an RS1 building in Roman Square is described as a blend of “classic charm with modern comfort, perfect for both business and leisure stays”. The true number of tourist rentals in RS1 buildings is probably higher, as only those where addresses could be confirmed are included. Of the confirmed listings, only two disclosed in their descriptions that they were located in a building with high seismic risk. But even they sought to downplay the danger. In one, the host notes the accommodation “may appear in older seismic risk classifications”, adding that this is “common for historic buildings in the city centre” and that the building is “regularly inhabited and maintained”. Another listing does not mention the risk directly, but in the English bio of the host one line in Romanian says the building where the apartment is located has a “dot”, without explaining what that means. By law, RS1 buildings must display a red dot above the entrance bearing a notice in Romanian stating that the building has been assessed and classified as seismic risk class 1. For the vast majority of foreign visitors, the warning is effectively invisible if they don’t read Romanian, campaigners say. After attempting to warn Airbnb and Booking.com about the risky listings, Re:Rise eventually took matters into their own hands. Volunteers began plastering hard-to-remove stickers on to the key lockboxes mounted outside RS1 buildings with holiday flats, each printed with a QR code linking to a website where tourists could read about the seismic risk of the property they were about to check into. “The state could go directly to the platforms and oblige them to act … The main institution responsible for anyone visiting the city is the city hall,” said Sumbasacu. “One has to take care of their own yard, but they have always run from that responsibility.” The city hall said local police conducted inspections only in response to complaints and that it notified the ministry of tourism in January to factor the law banning rentals in RS1 buildings into its authorisation process. “An information campaign was organised for apartment owners and building owners whose properties are on the list of buildings classified in seismic risk class RS1. Approximately 3,000 notifications were sent out,” added the statement. A spokesperson for Airbnb said: “Safety is a priority for Airbnb and we take issues like this seriously. We are currently investigating based on the information available so we can take the appropriate action.” A Booking.com spokesperson said: “Our accommodation partners should ensure that they are aware of their obligations and acting in accordance with all local laws, and we have a solid process in place for authorities to report any listings they might have concerns about.” Bucharest had more than 2 million visitors in 2025, more than any other city in the country, according to Romania’s National Institute of Statistics. However, much of the city’s infrastructure – including some schools, administrative buildings, theatres and fire stations, as well as private properties – remains at high seismic risk. The retrofitting work that followed the 1977 earthquake was cut short when the communist dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu redirected the funds to build the massive House of the People, now Romania’s Palace of Parliament. Since retrofitting legislation passed in 1994, only 35 buildings have been reinforced. A 2022 risk assessment by the Bucharest City Committee for Emergency Situations estimated that a major earthquake could severely damage about 23,000 buildings across the city, kill approximately 6,500 people and leave a further 16,000 seriously injured.

What is Ukraine’s 40-day campaign against Russia and has it worked?

On 26 June, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, announced that he was ordering Ukraine’s state security service to launch a 40-day campaign against Russian targets aimed at “influencing the aggressor state in order to compel it to end to the war”. Since then, Kyiv has sharply escalated attacks on Russia under the aegis of a series of overlapping operations striking key supply lines in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea, and striking Moscow and St Petersburg in a series of high-profile long-range missile attacks, triggering a fuel crisis. Three weeks in to the 40-day campaign, as it becomes clearer what it involves, how successful has it been and what does the operation say about the future course of the war? Why did Zelenskyy talk about a 40-day campaign? Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House thinktank – like others – sees Zelenskyy’s 40-day framing as an Orthodox Christian reference aimed at Russia and Vladimir Putin in particular. “Zelenskyy is the master of narrative performance,” she says. “I think it is a reference to the 40 days in purgatory waiting for the decision to go to hell or heaven. The message is that we already think of you as dead. Now it is your decision whether to save yourselves or not.” Beyond the metaphysical, Lutsevych sees the length of the campaign as having a political significance as well. “Elections for the Duma [Russian parliament] are in September. Part of the idea is to make Putin understand that it hurts his hold on power by doing everything to bring the war to Moscow and St Petersburg in particular.” Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, adds: “It is a psychological campaign. I don’t think there is an expectation that the 40-day campaign will force Russia to surrender. It is a way of saying: ‘We can take the war to you’. “I think the big thing is the effort to precipitate an oil crisis in Russia. I think what Zelenskyy is also trying to do is to focus Ukrainians on what Ukraine is doing on the battlefield where the conversation has been about a quagmire, saying, ‘we are being dynamic and taking the initiative’.” What does the campaign involve? While Zelenskyy was not initially explicit, subsequent comments by Ukrainian officials have made clear that it is seen as encompassing aspects of several ongoing efforts, including the so-called middle strike strategy that has heavily disrupted Russia’s main supply lines and the long-range strike campaign against Russian military industrial sites, refineries, shipping and major cities. The retired Australian general Mick Ryan, writing in his Futura Doctrina Substack, describes it primarily as an “influence operation” intended to force Russia to end its invasion. “This is a unified campaign of deep strikes against oil refineries, military facilities and major cities intended to press Moscow toward ending the war,” he wrote. Ryan described the attacks on oil refineries as an “attempted strategic coercion by attrition” of Russia’s war economy, adding: “By 5 July, Ukraine’s general staff claimed to have disabled 42.74% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, reporting eight refineries hit in a month, more than 60 storage tanks destroyed or damaged and cumulative industry losses of $13.5bn.” In one recent week, operations officially attributed to the 40-day campaign included 13 long-range and medium-range strikes on key military targets including the Saki and Gvardeyskoye airfields, aircraft hangars in Crimea, the St Petersburg oil terminal, the Yaroslavl oil refinery north-east of Moscow, a refinery in Kaluga region to the capital’s south-west, and the oil loading terminal at the Vysotsk seaport on the Baltic. What has the impact been so far? Ukraine has been launching long-range strikes on Moscow for a while now, but its stepping up of their scale and intensity has shocked Muscovites who had never expected the war to be brought home to them so forcefully. Towering columns of smoke from burning refineries, the new experience of large flights of drones flying over the capital and St Petersburg – Russia’s two most important cities – have triggered the posting of shocked videos on social media. In practical terms, Russians are now facing long queues at many petrol stations with some sleeping in cars for several days. Less visibly documented is the impact on Russian-occupied Crimea, where strikes on key bridges and roads to the peninsular have led to power cuts and a sense of it being under siege. It may also be generating political frictions inside Russia, according to the Institute for the Study of War. “Ukraine’s successful intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns have forced a reckoning within the Russian ultranationalist information space,” it said in a recent report. “[It is] causing commentators to blame the Russian federal government for failing to create a cohesive air defence system that can adequately protect private businesses and critical infrastructure.” Does this help Ukraine on the international stage? Lutsevych suggests Ukraine’s successes in bringing the war to Russia – before and within the 40-day campaign – may have contributed to a change of attitude in the Trump administration towards Ukraine. The notorious low point was the February 2025 Oval Office scolding of Zelenskyy by the US president, Donald Trump, who told him “you don’t have the cards”, while the US vice-president, JD Vance, accused him of “disrespect”. A very different dynamic was in evidence during last week’s Nato summit in Ankara where Trump suggested Kyiv could be allowed to produce Patriot missile interceptors under licence. “That was the biggest visible success of Ankara. It is psychologically important because before it would have seemed unbelievable that the US would give Ukraine the licence for such a sophisticated weapons system,” Lutsevych said. “I think it shows it is done for Russia in its attempt to conquer Ukraine and is important for the strategic posture of Ukraine’s forces in the future, although it is more symbolic at the moment.” Where does it go from here? There has been public and private speculation that the campaign may see other high-profile military efforts aimed at humiliating Putin and undermining his support, including against units regarded as key to sustaining Putin’s regime. One possibility that has been floated by Denys Shtilerman, the chief designer and co-founder of Ukraine’s missile producer Fire Point, is strikes on key military facilities in Moscow with newly produced ballistic missiles perhaps beginning in September. “First is Moscow … where the military facilities are protected. The most important thing is that I am practically 100% certain they won’t be able to intercept effectively,” said Shtilerman in an interview this month. There is also speculation that Ukraine may once again attempt to retake territory from Russia after assessments that depleted Russian forces are increasingly thinly spread in almost half of the areas where they were once attempting to advance. And despite the public framing of the campaign as lasting 40 days, Lutsevych believes the campaign, as Shtilerman suggests, is likely to not only continue but perhaps intensify further.

US says latest attack wave on Iran completed – as it happened

We’re about to shut this live page but are continuing our round-the-clock coverage of the Middle East crisis. Here’s a recap of the latest events as it turns 7am in Tehran and 11.30pm in Washington DC, and we also have a full report. Thanks for joining us. The US military said it completed a fresh wave of evening strikes against Iranian targets on Thursday morning local time to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten ships transiting the strait of Hormuz. Targets including the southern port city of Bandar Abbas – home ⁠to key navy and Revolutionary Guard facilities ‌– while it earlier hit Greater Tunb Island, Central Command said on social media. “The U.S. military is holding Iran accountable at the Commander in Chief’s direction,” it said, referring to President Donald Trump. The Iranian army said it targeted US military facilities in Jordan with drones on Thursday, state media reported, after the latest American strikes. It said that in response to “enemy aggression” it targeted communication systems and fuel storage facilities of the US military there using kamikaze drones, state television Irib reported. Iranian state media earlier reported explosions in several cities including Bandar Abbas, Rask and Chabahar, while earlier reports also cited blasts around southern sites including Qeshm and Bandar Imam Khomeini, as well as in Bushehr, home to Iran’s only civilian nuclear plant. Iranian air defences were reportedly activated in the capital, Tehran, on Thursday morning. Iran targeted Bahrain and Kuwait with retaliatory missile and drone fire early on Thursday. The latest US strikes hit an Iranian army barracks, killed at least seven troops and wounded hundreds of people across the country, according to Iranian officials. There was no immediate word on damage or casualties from Iran’s strikes, but its health ministry said at least 30 people had been killed in southern Iran in US attacks in recent days and more than 260 people injured. Centcom said US aircraft fired missiles into an oil tanker’s smokestack in the strait of Hormuz, disabling the vessel. It said the Belma ignored multiple warnings as it attempted to violate the US blockade. Trump ⁠said ⁠he did not like giving deadlines ⁠when asked by ⁠reporters if Tehran ‌had a ‌deadline before the US started attacking Iranian bridges, as threatened. “I ‌don’t like giving deadlines, but they pretty ⁠much know, they know the story ... they better behave.” Iran’s top negotiator, ⁠Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that ⁠if Iran ⁠did not benefit from its memorandum of ⁠understanding with the US, “we have no reason ⁠to adhere to such an understanding”. Iran had “never welcomed war, nor do we now”, the parliamentary speaker said on Telegram. He called on Iranians to continue with their armed resistance, but to also “use the tools of diplomacy and negotiation to achieve and consolidate national interests”. Trump thanked Iran for allowing an American citizen he says was “wrongfully detained in December of 2024” to leave the country. “She is now safely outside of Iran, and in good condition,” he said, while the woman was named by her lawyer as Dena Karari, a dual American and Iranian citizen.