Tuesday briefing: Is Keir Starmer in office, but out of staff?
Good morning. One of the most powerful jobs in British politics is also one of the least well defined. The Downing Street chief of staff sits at the centre of power, acting as a prime minister’s most senior political adviser, gatekeeper and internal enforcer – and when the job goes wrong, it tends to go wrong very publicly. That happened at the weekend, when Morgan McSweeney resigned as Keir Starmer’s chief of staff after revelations about Peter Mandelson contained in the Epstein files. In his resignation statement, McSweeney said that “in public life responsibility must be owned when it matters most”, adding that he took full accountability for advising Starmer on the appointment of Mandelson as US ambassador. McSweeney’s departure was swiftly followed by that of Tim Allan, Starmer’s director of communications. Then yesterday, the party’s leader in Scotland, Anas Sarwar, became the most senior Labour figure to date to call for the prime minister to go. Starmer’s Cabinet, including the chancellor, home secretary and foreign secretary, came out in a coordinated vocal show of support for him in response. In today’s newsletter, we look at why the departure of a chief of staff so weakens a prime minister, who Starmer might turn to next, and whether they will have time to turn things around. First, the headlines. Five big stories UK politics | Keir Starmer has seen off an immediate challenge to his position from Labour’s leader in Scotland, telling his MPs he was “not prepared to walk away” from power and plunge the country into chaos. Iran | The country’s architecture of internet control is built on technologies from China, according to an analysis published by a British human rights organisation. Education | Children with special needs will not lose their places at special schools or current levels of assistance, an education minister has told parents anxious that the government would strip away their child’s support. Australia | New South Wales police have pepper sprayed protesters at a Sydney rally opposing Israeli president Isaac Herzog’s visit, with a state Labor MP claiming their actions were “totally over-the-top” and a Greens MP alleging she was assaulted. Monarchy | Police are assessing claims that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor passed on confidential information about overseas trips to the child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. In depth: The most powerful job you’ve never voted for
To lose one chief of staff might be considered unfortunate; to lose two looks careless. That is where Keir Starmer finds himself, with Morgan McSweeney’s exit on Sunday following the messy departure of Sue Gray just months after Labour won the 2024 general election. The Downing Street chief of staff is one of the most influential unelected roles in British politics, and with the prime minister losing his closest aide in No 10, not just opposition leaders but senior figures in his own party have stepped up to call on Starmer to quit. *** What is the chief of staff role – and why was McSweeney so important? While the prime minister’s principal private secretary, a senior civil servant, runs the day-to-day operation of No 10, the chief of staff is responsible for the political direction of the building. The first person to hold the title was David Wolfson in 1979, when Margaret Thatcher took office. The precise role varies depending on the prime minister’s leadership style, but in broad terms the chief of staff sits at the centre of No 10’s political operation. They advise the prime minister on strategy, party management and political risk, oversee the work of special advisers across government, and help ensure that policy, communications and parliamentary tactics are aligned. Chiefs of staff also act as internal brokers, smoothing relations between ministers, advisers and the wider machinery of government. But one of the most important – and least visible – parts of the job is gatekeeping. The chief of staff controls access to the prime minister, shapes what information reaches them, and often decides which problems are dealt with immediately and which are left to wait. Depending on which side of Labour’s factional fence you sit – as this Kiran Stacey analysis piece explained – McSweeney either helped engineer the party’s strategic shift towards the centre ground, masterminding its 2024 election landslide, or was simply the man in the chair when the Conservative vote imploded. His critics also say he has been instrumental in purging senior figures on the party’s left, to the detriment of its long-term electoral prospects. *** Who Starmer might appoint next Nothing quite says “we are resetting government” like senior aides being forced out of Downing Street. As the saying goes, deputy heads must roll. The vacuum left by McSweeney’s exit is now being filled by five people. Vidhya Alakeson and Jill Cuthbertson, who were McSweeney’s deputies, are now acting jointly in the role – Alakeson bringing policy expertise and business outreach, and Cuthbertson trusted operational and organisational experience from years in Labour politics. The other significant figures are MP Darren Jones, who, as chief secretary to the prime minister, has become a central figure in driving Starmer’s priorities. Amy Richards, the political director, is tasked with strengthening communication with Labour MPs. And there is Harvey Redgrave, head of the No 10 policy unit, who represents the policy-technocrat strand of the operation. It all makes for a very complicated org chart. Media outlets have also been throwing the name of Louise Casey into the ring for a potential permanent appointment. She has a reputation as a Whitehall “troubleshooter” and was trusted with carrying out a report into grooming gangs early on in the Starmer administration. Jonathan Powell, who held the job under Tony Blair and is Starmer’s national security adviser, might be another experienced option. *** Will Starmer even have the time? Yesterday, the Conservative opposition leader, Kemi Badenoch, the Green party leader, Zach Polanski, and the SNP’s Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, all called on the prime minister to step down. Badenoch said Starmer was “in office, but not in power”, adding that he was “blowing around like a plastic bag in the wind”. Starmer appears determined to stay in place until the end of his term, regardless of the results from May’s local, Senedd and Holyrood elections – yesterday’s newsletter explored Labour’s struggles in Wales – and Downing Street said on Monday that he was “upbeat”, “confident” and “concentrating on the job in hand”. But his party may yet have other ideas. In the most damaging development of recent days, Labour’s leader in Scotland, Anas Sarwar, called for Starmer to stand down as prime minister. (The Guardian’s Scotland editor, Severin Carroll, has this analysis.) Sarwar said there had been “too many mistakes” in Downing Street, adding: “I have to be honest about failure wherever I see it.” It will have offered little comfort to Starmer that Sarwar described him as a “friend” before saying: “My first priority and my first loyalty has to be to my country, Scotland.” Sources close to Labour’s first minister in Wales, Eluned Morgan, said she was not planning to comment on Starmer’s leadership on Monday – something immediately seized on by Plaid Cymru’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, who said yesterday: “Starmer has to go. He’s lost all moral authority and the self-awareness to do the right thing. Wales’ Labour first minister remains silent on Starmer’s lack of judgment … seemingly happy for the chaos to continue.” There are also plenty of other elephant traps between now and May. In this explainer, Matthew Weaver identified several key moments of risk for the prime minister in the coming weeks: the Gorton and Denton byelection on 26 February; the politically fraught white paper on special educational needs (Send) in England’s schools, expected in late February; and Rachel Reeves’s spring statement on 3 March. The government has also lost control of the timing of the release of documents relating to Mandelson’s appointment as British ambassador to the US, expected to include embarrassing personal messages between ministers, advisers and the disgraced peer. *** How could the endgame play out for Starmer? If Keir Starmer steps down as Labour leader while prime minister, the party would move quickly into a holding pattern. Under Labour’s rules, the cabinet, in consultation with the party’s national executive committee, would appoint an interim leader from among its members to run the party and government while a full leadership contest was organised. A full election would then follow in two stages. Candidates – who must be Labour MPs – would need nominations from at least 20% of their colleagues, plus support from constituency parties or affiliated organisations such as trade unions. Those who clear that hurdle would go to a one-member-one-vote ballot of party members and affiliates, using a preferential system until a candidate secures more than 50%. The process can take weeks, leaving the interim leader in place until a successor is chosen. There may be a route that suits almost everyone except Starmer: appointing an interim leader and prime minister with no long-term ambitions, prepared to shoulder responsibility for poor May election results, before a permanent leadership contest later in the year. That would also allow time for figures outside parliament – Andy Burnham, for example – to attempt to secure a Commons seat in time to be in play. For now, Starmer remains in Downing Street, insisting he can steady the ship. But the loss of a chief of staff is never about just one individual. It is a sign that authority is fraying at the centre – and that the prime minister’s grip on events is being questioned not just by his opponents, but also by those closest to him. What else we’ve been reading
Emerald Fennell’s take on Wuthering Heights has landed like a lead balloon with fans and critics alike. Peter Bradshaw’s review is a gloriously sharp read. Aamna “Eventually, she didn’t mind, but in the beginning she did bite him” is exactly the kind of quote you want to read in a discussion of a beloved but surly raccoon, the pet that Gill Waters can’t forget. Martin Economic growth and rising carbon emissions still go hand in hand. This fascinating interactive asks whether that link can be broken. Aamna The Atavist has this story of three mothers whose children who were diagnosed in late adolescence or early adulthood with schizophrenia. And as a parent myself, I couldn’t help feel what a hard journey it had been for everybody involved. Martin The Epstein files suggest powerful men’s ties to the convicted paedophile went beyond indifference, Moira Donegan compellingly argues, with some actively seeking him out as an ally in pushing back against the #MeToo movement. Aamna Sport
Winter Olympics | Jutta Leerdam delivered the defining race of her career on Monday night, roaring to Olympic gold in the women’s 1000m and setting a new Olympic record of 1min 12.31sec to lead a Dutch one-two and deliver the Netherlands’ first medals of the Games. Winter Olympics | The British freestyle skier Gus Kenworthy has received death threats and messages hoping that he breaks his neck after posting an image apparently showing him urinating the words “fuck ICE” in the snow last week. Football | Erling Haaland says Manchester City’s dramatic 2-1 win at Liverpool on Sunday meant more than just the points and represented a statement from the club in terms of the Premier League title race. The front pages
“‘I’m not prepared to walk away,’ embattled Starmer tells MPs,” is the splash on the Guardian on Tuesday, as the PM comes under increasing pressure to step down. “PM comes out fighting as cabinet falls in line,” says the Times. “Streeting accused of No10 coup,” has the Telegraph. “Resign now! PM on brink as calls to go mount,” is the lead headline at the Express. The FT runs with “Starmer defies calls to stand down as allies accuse Streeting of fuelling crisis,” as the Mail opts for “Cabinet bounced into giving PM stay of execution.” Meanwhile the Metro asks simply: “How long?” The Sun draws attention to the latest on Andrew, saying: “King: We’ll help cops on Andy.” The Star has similar with: “King: We’ll help police.” Today in Focus
Starmer survives – but for how long? Just before midday, news broke that Tim Allen, Keir Starmer’s director of communications, had resigned. By lunchtime, it emerged that Anas Sarwar, Labour’s leader in Scotland, was preparing to hold a press conference calling on Starmer to stand down. Helen Pidd recounts a whirlwind 24 hours in which the prime minister fought to save his career. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In south Antananarivo, capital and largest city of Madagascar, over 4,000 rickshaws provide the cheapest transport for an estimated 265,000 residents. Unlike most drivers, Haja Nirina owns his rickshaw, avoiding daily rental fees thanks to a microcredit programme run by his local athletic club, Crown Athletics Club. Crown’s roots began in 1997 with Antsirabe’s first rickshaw race, organised by Tsiry Rakotomalala. The race led to the formation of Crown, which gained momentum in 2017 under president Yann Mayette. Convinced of Malagasy athletes’ potential, Mayette offered microcredit through the club, enabling runners like Nirina to buy their rickshaw cycles. As an owner, Nirina only pays 500 ariary for overnight storage, allowing him to focus more on his athletic training and races. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply