Wednesday briefing: What your Christmas cranberries reveal about the climate crisis
Good morning. Have you done your Christmas food shop yet? If so, you probably felt the sting before you reached the checkout. From turkeys to trees, much of what makes Christmas feel like, well, Christmas, now comes with a noticeably higher price tag. The prices of ingredients for a traditional Christmas meal and festive treats have risen sharply this year, piling pressure on Britons still deep in the grip of a tough cost of living crisis. It comes as polling repeatedly shows that the economy and day-to-day living costs remain at the top of the public’s most pressing concerns. To understand what is really driving these price increases, I have taken an unusual route. Rather than starting with an economist, I spoke to climate scientist Sarah Bridle. I picked one familiar Christmas ingredient, and we traced its journey from field to festive table. That single thread leads through volatile weather, fragile global supply chains and fierce supermarket competition to tell a bigger story of just why everything is so damn expensive. That’s after the headlines. In depth: The era of UK supermarket abundance has ended
When I told colleagues I was writing about cranberries, there was a strong reaction. Apparently cranberry sauce at the Christmas table divides the nation (or the Guardian newsroom) like Marmite. But loved or loathed, cranberry is still a fixture on many Christmas tables. Sarah Bridle, professor of food, climate and society at the University of York, is not a huge fan of cranberries, but she does think the berry tells us a lot about the world. She worked as an astrophysicist for 20 years, but was brought back down to earth by the climate catastrophe. “Ten years ago, I started to really think about my kid’s future, and what they would ask me about what I did about climate change,” Bridle says. Since then, she has looked at our recent era of near-permanent abundance in the UK, where we go to the supermarket and find almost anything all year round. That era is starting to come to an end. “We are going to have shortages of things more frequently in the future,” she warns. Her latest research surveyed 58 leading UK food experts on their perceptions of risk to the food system. The findings paint a sobering picture. She says: “80% of them thought there was likely to be civil unrest due to food crises in the UK in the next 50 years.” *** The cost of cranberries Almost all the cranberries eaten in the UK are imported, mainly from the United States and Canada. Though in Guardian fashion, we did manage to interview the one cranberry farmer operating in the UK – in 2013. A 2022 Guardian analysis found that own-brand cranberry sauce prices rose 37% in a year, increasing from 64p a jar to an average of 87p. The analysis put this down to the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs and supply chain issues, which were widely seen as the main drivers of food inflation at the time. This year’s reporting shows cranberry sauce prices rising by about 25% compared with the previous year. While earlier increases were likely driven by the UK’s reliance on imported cranberries and broader geopolitical pressures, Bridle believes this year’s jump merely reflects a correction after supermarkets artificially lowered prices last year to compete with Aldi. While it’s difficult to pin recent increases in the price of cranberries to specific weather events, cranberry farmers have historically been affected by the climate crisis. Cranberries are sensitive to their environmental conditions: they need cold weather and access to abundant water. They are harvested in flooded fields in autumn, then almost entirely processed into juice and sauce. A small number of cranberries go on to be sold fresh in our supermarkets for those who love their sour taste. Heatwaves during the summer can also damage the fruit, while drought can force growers to rely on intensive irrigation. But Bridle tells me farmers are adapting fast to the climate crisis. She points to a recently published study in PLOS Climate, which found that in the Massachusetts cranberry bogs, growers are experimenting with new sanding techniques, rolling out smarter automatic irrigation, and planting varieties that promise bigger harvests. *** The staple ingredient So, when considering how the climate crisis threatens our food supplies, perhaps the ingredient to worry most about isn’t the cranberries on your Christmas table, but the wheat in everything from Christmas cake to the bread we pile cheese on. “In the UK, we have had big problems with the wheat harvest,” Bridle says, with government figures showing total output decreased by 20% between 2023 and 2024. “We’d had the wettest 18 months on record previous to that. You could see the crops weren’t germinating because they rotted in the fields. And also that farmers couldn’t get out in the autumn – at the time they normally would have done – because the fields were waterlogged.” Wheat, like this First Edition writer, is very fussy. Bridle points out that grains depend on the weather in one short pollination window. If that week turns out to be a washout, and the insects are unable to get out to pollinate, the crop can falter. And this year has proven no better for British farmers – or for the prospects of wheat prices. By 2025, relentless heat and drought had slashed more than £800m from production, delivering one of the worst harvests on record. In fact, three of the five worst harvests on record have now occurred since 2020. For shoppers, this reduction in wheat output means a future where this staple ingredient is less easily available, and more expensive. An average branded bread loaf weighing 800g now costs £1.43, up almost a third from £1.10 on average in the year to April 2021. *** The end of decadence For Bridle, food offers the clearest lens through which to grasp the profound impact the climate crisis is already having on our lives. “Food is such a personal experience, it is a cultural experience. There are many factors that come into food that go beyond the numbers to do with price or climate impacts and health,” she says. “So it becomes quite a visceral topic to bring up with people.” Which puts the shocking statistic at the beginning of this newsletter – that 80% of food system experts believe the UK could face civil unrest over food crises within the next 50 years – into perspective. For those who remember supermarket shelves stripped bare during Covid, the point of just how central food security is to social stability will ring clear. Bridle’s other research suggests that in the next decade the greater risk is not an overall shortage of food, but a breakdown in distribution. The UK may have enough to feed everyone, she says, but not necessarily the systems to transport it to everyone. Her research also raises bigger questions about how we eat. Should we expect strawberries in winter? Bridle agrees there is a certain decadence to the modern British diet, built on the assumption that everything can be grown somewhere, at any time. But she is also clear that responsibility cannot rest with individual shoppers alone. She calls for a wholesale change in the food environment. “We can’t just expect everybody to go into the shop every single day and make good choices because there are many factors working against us in practice; such as where stuff is on the shelves, the availability and tastiness of different food options,” she says. “So the focus needs to be on creating lots of good options that are easy to access. But sometimes doing that requires changes in policy.” She points to the sugary drinks tax as a model for how public understanding can make regulation possible. “Years of trying to educate people on the impact of sugar on their health didn’t change what we ate, but it did create that awareness, which led to an acceptance of that new policy,” Bridle says. She now sits on a Defra advisory group working on climate impact labelling for food. The aim is to standardise how environmental costs are measured, a first step before any pricing or taxation can be considered. “We’ve become quite disconnected from where our food comes from. And that causes several problems, most notably food waste,” Bridle says. For now at least, wasting less food is one climate action most people agree on, she adds. So on a positive note before Christmas: eat up! If you are reading this on the app, over the Christmas period the headlines and sport will not appear. 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