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Middle East crisis live: US-Iran talks laid ‘very good foundation for a successful final deal’, says Vance

JD Vance was asked if he expected Iran to tie its talks with the US to Lebanon as closely as they have done and for his view on how he sees developments on Lebanon. The US vice president replied that “very good progress” has been made on Lebanon, agreeing with the Iranian foreign minister’s comments earlier (see this post for more details). Vance said the US wants a regional ceasefire and for Hezbollah to stop firing at America’s “friends in Israel”. “We want Israelis to be able to live in peace.” He went on: We also want to make sure that when things happen they don’t spiral into a broader escalation. And so we’ve been I think very good at setting up what we are calling a ‘deconfliction mechanism’ but what it really is is to say that when things happen the sides are actually talking to one another. Sometimes you have got a little bit of a chicken and egg problem – that you have got a junior guy who fires a drone that didn’t have approval from the high command. Okay, of course Israel has to respond to that but then sometimes that response we could actually have a better and more peaceful situation if Israel responds in the context of a conversation that is ongoing between Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel and other partners in the region. There really hasn’t been a mechanism to have those discussions until basically around 4pm yesterday Bürgenstock time when we set that up. So, what we are trying to do is to say first of all Israel and every other nation in the region has the right of self-defence but we want to make sure that everybody has that right of self-defence in the background where we are talking about how to de-escalate these conflicts. Vance claimed that the last 24 hours has “probably” been the “most peaceful” Lebanon has seen recently. He didn’t mention Israel’s continuing occupation of swathes of southern Lebanon, something that Hezbollah, which is demanding a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, has said is completely unacceptable.

Zelenskyy pledges to ‘bring war back to Russia’ after drones swarm toward Moscow – Europe live

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy also responded to Starmer setting out his plans to resign as Britain’s PM, telling him he would always be “a welcome guest” in Ukraine for his support to the wartorn country. In a statement on his social media, he said: “Keir, thank you for all our cooperation, your support, and the joint decisions that have helped make our Europe and our protection of life stronger. The United Kingdom has been, is, and will remain among the world’s leaders. Here in Ukraine, we deeply value Britain, and every meeting and every conversation we have had has always been filled with real substance. Thank you for always being in touch, always engaged, and always striving to do what is needed and what will truly help. I wish the United Kingdom and all British people every success as well as realisation of your national goals. We have confidence in Britain. Keir, you are always a welcome guest in Ukraine.”

Marius Borg Høiby rape conviction renews focus in Norway on consent in digital age

In many ways, the case of Marius Borg Høiby, who was sentenced to four years in prison last week after being found guilty of offences including domestic violence and two counts of rape, was exceptional. The king’s 29-year-old step-grandson grew up in the public eye alongside the royal family, mixing in Oslo’s wealthiest circles, partying at exclusive nightclubs and having afterparties at his family’s official royal residence. But at its core the case also highlights a dark universal truth, one that has resonated with Norwegians and people around the world: the prevalence of violence, particularly sexual violence, in daily life, even in one of the world’s supposedly most gender equal countries, and how it has been exacerbated by the digital age. It has also exposed, despite important changes to Norway’s consent law last year, a severe lack of understanding of the issue across Norwegian society, experts say, from children to teenagers to prosecutors. “The verdict has been on everyone’s lips, both in my personal world with my friends, but also here at the office we have discussed this quite a bit,” said Åsne Solberg, a legal adviser at JURK, which provides free advice to women at their offices in Oslo. Like many other Norwegian women, Solberg has been personally shaken by the combination of the trial, and the publication of the Epstein files, which revealed details of the years-long friendship between Høiby’s mother, the crown princess Mette-Marit and the late US sex offender. “You really get a glimpse of how some of these men resonate, or don’t resonate, with their own actions,” she said. “And how, deep down on the inside, they perceive women and the worth of women and what they can do to women. I think it’s just very dark, honestly.” She also knows from professional experience that the Høiby case is not unique. Despite Norway’s reputation as a global leader on gender equality, one in five women have been raped at least once, and one in 10 have experienced serious partner violence. “We call it the Nordic paradox,” said Solberg. “That on paper we are very equal but when it comes to our violence statistics it is quite dire still.” Norway’s new consent laws, which came into effect last year, criminalise sex without explicit consent, meaning prosecutors don’t need to prove violence or threats or the incapacity of the victim to resist to get a rape conviction. The charges against Høiby related to incidents that took place from before the new laws came into effect. Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland have also introduced consent-based rape laws. Officials in Sweden said changing the legal definition of rape to sex without consent led to a 75% increase in convictions. Solberg, who has campaigned for years for the law change, said she thinks it would have made a difference in the Høiby case. “This whole case and the proceedings illustrate why we needed the change in the penal code,” she said. It was especially apparent, she said, in the focus on whether or not victims were asleep during the rapes. Under the new law, this would not have been necessary, she believes. “The most relevant theme of evidence would be whether she consented or not, not whether she was actually asleep or not.” Nok Norge (Enough Norway) is an umbrella organisation for government-funded centres that provide support to sexual abuse victims around the country, including in some schools. It says behaviour demonstrated in the Høiby trial was representative of a broader culture around sex and explicit image sharing. Ingvild Hestad Torkelsen, the organisation’s leader, said “porn is getting into bedrooms very early … We have a lot of girls that come to our centres that say the first time they had sex the boys wanted to strangle them because they’ve seen that done in porn … It’s more brutal or aggressive very early.” Increased screen time has also left gaps in knowledge about how to communicate and read body language effectively, she said. While schools teach sex education, it is more about the “mechanics” of sex than feelings, boundaries or communication. Kari Helene Partapuoli, the secretary general of the Norwegian women’s public health association Sanitetskvinnene, said the issue of intimate photos and videos – including those taken with consent – are an added concern for children and young people. “There are a lot of closed groups,” she said. “It’s something that keeps coming up. And I think everyone who is a parent today has those discussions with their children, teenagers especially, boys or girls.” Before the start of the trial, Sanitetskvinnene reported a rise in the number of women reporting abuse and sexual assault at the hands of their partners. Partapuoli hopes the verdicts, some of which have been appealed by Høiby, will have a much wider impact on Norwegian society: “All of history shows that you have to speak up. Unfortunately, often an individual has to go through that kind of public scrutiny, like these women have done in this court case, and also in rape cases.” But, she added, there is some way to go. “We have to keep talking about it, learning, changing attitudes and taking it through court cases. This does not have an easy fix, but you have to keep working.”

Ukraine intensifies attacks on Crimea to raise cost of Russian occupation

Ukraine has stepped up its strikes on Crimea as part of a strategy to isolate the occupied peninsula from mainland Russia and raise the cost of the occupation. On Sunday, Russian-installed authorities suspended civilian fuel sales until at least Wednesday, a move that underscored Ukraine’s growing ability to disrupt supply lines linking Crimea to Russia. “Fuel will be sold only to government agencies that ensure the functioning and security of the Republic of Crimea,” the Russian-appointed governor, Sergei Aksyonov, said. “I ask everyone to remain calm and only trust official sources of information.” Local authorities also announced that parts of the peninsula would be left without street lighting and that all public events had been cancelled. A wave of Ukrainian medium-range strikes has targeted occupied Crimea and the transport routes connecting it to Russia in recent weeks. Kyiv hopes to turn the peninsula “into an island” by disrupting Russian supply chains and isolating Crimea from mainland Russia. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on Sunday that a Crimean oil depot and an oil transport facility in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region were among the targets. He described the attacks as part of Ukraine’s campaign of “long-range sanctions” against Russia. Ukrainian Telegram channels also reported that Kyiv had struck at least three Russian ferries transporting vehicles operating on the Kerch crossing between Crimea and mainland Russia. Ukraine has focused its strikes on the main transport routes supplying Crimea, particularly the Novorossiya highway, a key logistics corridor linking the peninsula to Russia’s Rostov region through the occupied cities of Melitopol and Mariupol. Russia had already sharply restricted traffic on the Kerch Bridge, the other major route connecting Crimea to Russia. Moscow has largely stopped using the bridge for rail fuel shipments since a 2022 Ukrainian attack damaged the crossing and set a fuel train ablaze. The recent strikes have left residents queueing for hours at petrol stations, dealing a significant blow to Crimea’s economy during the peak holiday season, when tens of thousands of Russian tourists normally visit the peninsula. Yelena Shtringel, the director of the tour company TurEtno, told the RBC news site that about 80% of June bookings had been cancelled, while roughly half of reservations for July and August had also been abandoned. “I want to go back to Moscow. This is just horrible,” one Russian tourist said in a video circulating online after her train service in Crimea was suspended over the weekend owing to another Ukrainian drone attack. On Monday, Aksyonov said all children’s summer camps would be cancelled until September, the latest sign of the growing disruption caused by the attacks. With other routes under strain, Russian voices close to the Kremlin suggested that Ukraine was likely to intensify its efforts to target the Kerch bridge in the coming weeks. “The pressure on the Crimean [Kerch] Bridge will clearly increase in the coming weeks as part of Ukraine’s strategy to sever links between Crimea and the mainland … the strikes will intensify,” wrote Rybar, a pro-war Telegram channel with 1.5 million followers run by a former Russian defence ministry official. “We need to prepare for such a scenario in advance and understand what weapons the Ukrainian armed forces might use,” the channel added. The 12-mile-long Kerch bridge, also known as the Crimean Bridge, is the jewel in the crown of Putin’s infrastructure projects – described by Russian media as the “construction of the century” intended to reify Russia’s claimed ownership of Crimea. The bridge was severely damaged in October 2022, when a truck bomb detonated on Putin’s 70th birthday, collapsing sections of the roadway and setting a fuel train ablaze. Although Moscow has since strengthened its defences around the crossing, it remains one of Ukraine’s most important targets.

Iran hails ‘progress’ as first day of talks with US conclude after shaky start

Iran’s foreign minister has declared “progress” after the first day of talks between high-ranking officials from Washington and Tehran ended in Switzerland, despite a tense opening marked by Donald Trump threats to restart attacks. A joint statement from mediators Qatar and Pakistan said the ⁠US and Iran agreed to a roadmap towards⁠ a final deal within 60 days. Technical talks between lower-ranked officials will continue for the rest of the week, according to the statement, with fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon at the top of the agenda. “Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end [the] Lebanon war,” said Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, after talks broke up just after 3am local time (1am GMT). The joint statement said the US and Iran agreed to establish a “communication line” to avoid incidents in the strait of Hormuz, and to set up a “de-confliction cell” with Lebanon’s government to ensure the “adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon”. In a development that is critical to unlocking progress, the US Treasury was also preparing to issue a 60-day waiver lifting sanctions on oil, petrochemicals and derivatives. Iran said this meant its central bank would be able to sell oil to customers, principally China, and receive payments without the threat of sanctions. Qatar and Iran also signed a memorandum about the release of Iranian assets frozen in Qatar bank accounts due to US secondary sanctions. It was not clear whether the US had placed any restrictions on Iran’s use of the assets, such as demanding the money only be spent on humanitarian goods. The economic measures may help lift some of the pressure in Iran’s exchange markets, and gradually slow runaway inflation, the country’s biggest domestic concern at present. The joint statement by the mediators focused on new implementation mechanisms to turn the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed last week by Washington and Tehran into reality over the next 60 days – the timeline set out to reach an agreement on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and the lifting of sanctions on its economy. Although the main talks involving the US vice-president, JD Vance, and the Iranian chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, were declared concluded, lower-ranked officials will remain in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock to continue the technical discussions. In his message, Araghchi said the first real test of the understandings reached would be this “deconfliction” method for Lebanon, which has emerged as the biggest threat to the agreement signed by the US and Iran last week. Over the weekend, Iran said it had reinstated its blockade in the strait of Hormuz in protest at the continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon and that Trump was allowing Israel to breach the MOU. The memorandum calls for a ceasefire on all fronts, but Israel killed more than 30 people in attacks on Saturday in central and southern Lebanon. Despite the US military denying that the strait had been closed, Trump responded strongly to the threat on Sunday, saying: “You close it and you won’t have a country. You won’t even make it back to your fucking country.” The US president also weighed in on the situation in Lebanon, writing on social media: “Iran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble … If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again.” Iranian state media said talks had paused after the “publication of an insulting message by the US President”. The Iranian delegation then met with Qatari mediators and left the negotiating site, state media said. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said the Iranian delegation refused to return to the room where talks were held, but messages were still being traded via Pakistani and Qatari mediators. Speaking to reporters, a senior US diplomat said late on Sunday that the Iranians remained on site and the negotiations were on, according to the Associated Press. Vance was joined by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iran was represented by Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, and Araghchi. It was unclear whether Vance was set to continue the talks on Monday. The vice-president told US media that he anticipated staying only a “day or two”. “The question before us now is how much more can we accomplish together? Can we turn over a new leaf?” Vance said as the talks began. Vance and his US negotiating team will use the talks to try to reach an agreement over Iran’s nuclear programme. The MOU calls for Iran to, at minimum, dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but many issues – including Tehran’s right to enrich uranium in the future – remain unresolved. Iran had sought to hold back the nuclear element of the talks until the US blockade of its oil ports was lifted, a clear oil sales sanctions waiver was published, and half of its estimated $24bn in overseas assets were unfrozen and returned to Tehran. But with the bulk of its preconditions met, the joint mediator’s statement indicated that Iran would now permit some talks to take place on the future of its domestic uranium enrichment and the down blending of its large stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Araghchi acknowledged the most difficult issue remained the future of the Lebanon crisis, describing “the elimination of the conflict in Lebanon as the first real test” of the agreement.

Iran’s regime survived the war. Can it make peace with its own people?

The Islamic Republic regime in Iran may have survived the war, but it now faces an even greater challenge: making peace with its own population. Iranians are reeling not just from the shock of the war but also the killing of thousands of protesters by the authorities at the start of the year, and an economy in free fall. Instead of removing the regime, an initial declared aim of Donald Trump and the Israeli leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, the war showcased the Islamic Republic’s durability after its leader and layers of other top officials were killed. Now that the war appears to be over, the new generation of leadership confronts competing demands, from hardliners to stick to rigid principles of the Islamic revolution and a population exhausted by economic hardship and repression. The war caused significant destruction and, the authorities estimate, pushed two million people out of work. Inflation hit 77% last month. Iranians’ living standards had already crashed over the last decade as a result of international sanctions and mismanagement at home, with economic anger triggering the demonstrations that snowballed in January into an attempt to topple the government. There are glimmers of hope. The framework peace deal, signed by Iran and the US last week, offers economic reprieve, potentially unlocking hundreds of billions of dollars for Iran, with some of that windfall immediate. The longer-term economic benefits of sanctions lifting and money for reconstruction depend, however, on thorny further negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. The attack on Iran, and the bombing of civilians and civilian infrastructure, triggered a wave of nationalism – a rare moment of solidarity in the deeply divided country. There is a widespread belief that Iran won the war, analysts said. “Trump and Netanyahu have managed to unite Iranians more than any Iranian politician could,” said Foad Izadi, an associate professor at the University of Tehran. “Even people who didn’t like the government, don’t want to send their children to school and not see them again, and they don’t want their local hospital to be bombed.” Elham, an artist in Iran who describes herself as a leftist, said that the war and the bloodshed in January had forced a re-examination of beliefs about the west and protests. “The plan was to do to Iran what they did to Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan: a collapse and occupation,” she said. “There’s now an understanding that the idea that the US can save us is a lie.” She said that the authorities ought to allow protests but “regime change” uprisings are taken over by outside interests and lead to violent crackdowns, like in January. Instead, she said, there should be grassroots movements, which could win freedoms more gradually. “The state may not collapse, but society will collapse if we see a repeat of January every year,” said Elham. “We have to build new coalitions. Whether you are a reformer or hardliner, everyone has to take a step forward towards each other. We have to imagine our future differently.” Even the categories of conservatives, hardliners and reformers were scrambled by the war. The peace negotiations split, at least for now, more pragmatic conservatives from ultra-hardliners who opposed any agreement with the US. The idea of striking a bargain with the west had been associated with reformers. But the negotiations with the US were led by someone from the conservative camp, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament. The deal received public support from the Revolutionary Guards, the military force often considered to be a vanguard for hardliners. Ghalibaf said last week that there must now be a focus on economic recovery. Zeinab Ghasemi Tari, an associate professor at the University of Tehran, said the big nightly gatherings in public squares in towns and cities, which started during the war and still continue, represented something deeper than nationalism: a form of collective resilience and defiance. She said that while economic grievances remain, protests of the sort seen in January were tied to a now discredited pro-western outlook. “We are seeing fewer reformists openly advocating for engagement [with the west], and more either recalibrating their positions or remaining silent,” said Tari. “The war has reshaped public consciousness in ways that are still unfolding.” Even with more pragmatic figures in ascendancy, many are doubtful that the regime would be willing to use this moment of unity for reform. The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, believed to have been wounded in the war, is yet to appear in public or set out a domestic agenda. Mehran Haghirian, director of research and programmes at Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London-based thinktank focused on West Asia, said that the Islamic Republic was not capable of change, as that required being open to the outside world. “With the current system in place, it is impossible for it to alleviate the economic situation of the country,” said Haghirian. “It is a country ruled by a minority, so it will always have domestic opposition as its main consideration.” Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said that the regime needed sanctions relief and economic recovery, or wartime solidarity would curdle back into the old conflict between state and society. “The real challenge now isn’t deterring Washington; it’s whether Tehran can convert a moment of forced cohesion into a durable compact with its own citizens,” said Vatanka. “That is the harder and more existential test.”

Monday briefing: What’s next for no-drama Starmer as his ‘political challenges’ pile up?

Good morning. Today’s the day, probably. Keir Starmer is expected to announce that he will step down as prime minister, after overwhelming pressure from Labour MPs to make way for Andy Burnham to become party leader. This follows the Manchester mayor’s emphatic victory in last Thursday’s Makerfield byelection, where he leveraged his popularity and the prevailing anti-Starmer mood to secure more votes than Reform and Restore combined, cementing his credentials as the man who can take on the hard right in the next general election. I spoke to senior political correspondent, Peter Walker, about how the coming days and weeks may unfold for the Labour government, and pondered how “no-drama Starmer” ended up the most unpopular prime minister in memory (and lord knows, we’ve had plenty of them). Weekend roundup Middle East | High-stakes talks between the US and Iran are expected to continue for the rest of the week in Switzerland, after a tense start that saw Iranian negotiators walk out in protest at a stream of threats issued by Donald Trump on social media. Edinburgh | Police Scotland said a man was charged after a series of attacks in Edinburgh on Friday night that are being treated as potential anti-Muslim hate crimes. Counter-terrorism officers were brought in to investigate the attacks in which five people were injured. UK weather | The Met Office forecasts that extremely high temperatures could last from Monday until Thursday, leading to health concerns for elderly and vulnerable people. UK news | Police have named the driver killed in the Bedford train crash on Friday, as his family said they “are devastated by his loss”. Prisons | Pet ferrets kept as therapy animals at the UK’s largest children’s prison have been co-opted by managers to kill rats, resulting in a bloody incident and concerns over child and animal welfare. In depth: ‘No 10 has to reach a decision very quickly’ Yesterday morning, Peter wrote an article predicting Starmer would set out his timetable for leaving office later today. It was based on an interview that the business secretary, Peter Kyle, gave to the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg, and was informed by dozens of conversations Peter had with his contacts over the weekend. When I speak to Peter later, the first thing he mentions is the dog that didn’t bark. “Usually, if there’s something that can be challenged in any way, someone in No 10 will be on the phone saying, ‘That’s wrong. That needs changing’.” Instead, hours after his report was published he tells me, “I’ve not heard a single peep.” A few hours after that, Donald Trump indicated that his sources agreed with Peter’s (or else he’d been following the story on the Guardian), posting that Starmer “will resign” and wishing him well, in remarks that no doubt caused huge embarrassment for Downing Street at such a delicate moment. For weeks, Starmer’s allies have been briefing that he was “hellbent” on fighting any challenge to his leadership, and on Saturday the official Downing Street line remained that he’s “not going to walk away”. But whatever they might say publicly, something has changed. “A lot of Labour MPs were already convinced that Starmer wasn’t up to it, and it was worth the punt on Andy Burnham, but that mood is now shifting again,” Peter tells me. More than 200 Labour MPs – over half the parliamentary party – are willing to nominate Burnham for the leadership, making a coronation seem inevitable. And as yesterday progressed, Sky News reported that the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has joined senior cabinet colleagues including energy secretary Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, home secretary Shabana Mahmood, and transport secretary Heidi Alexander, in urging Starmer to step aside in an orderly fashion. Burnham has remained resolutely silent, packing for the early train down from Manchester to Westminster this morning, but chat about allowing Starmer a dignified exit appears to speak to Labour neuralgia at repeating Tory leadership chaos. For that reason alone, timing is everything – an announcement today would pre-empt tomorrow’s scheduled cabinet meeting, where at least half of those around the table want Starmer gone and after which many outlets have reported resignations are planned if he doesn’t accept the writing is on the wall. “No 10 has to reach a decision very quickly – will he fight or will he go?” says Peter. “Everyone now assumes the decision is going, but we still haven’t had anything official.” *** Contest or coronation? While Burnham supporters are increasingly confident of a coronation, the debate is still live about whether a contest would be more democratic – and allow for an open reflection on what has gone so wrong under Starmer, who led Labour to a sweeping general election victory, winning a majority of 174 seats, less than two years ago. “There are still quite a lot of people who want to see a contest,” says Peter, pointing out that Kyle, a close friend of the former health secretary Wes Streeting – whose desire to be prime minister is no secret – hedged his view yesterday. “Kyle said generally he thinks contests are good, but at the same time the party has to have as dignified a process as possible.” Kyle also cautioned against repeating the bitterness and tribalism of previous Tory leadership contests, though ex-PM Rishi Sunak, writing in the Sunday Times, urged Labour to embrace it – sort of. Sunak argued that, from experience, without a contest “your mandate is weak, and you end up being bound by commitments that aren’t your priorities”. Of course, a contest did little to aid his predecessor, Liz Truss, when she attempted to implement her will. Elsewhere, writing in the Guardian on the day of the Makerfield byelection, Starmer’s biographer Tom Baldwin suggested that Burnham had learned lessons from Wes Streeting’s “frantic and ultimately unsuccessful” efforts to trigger a contest after the local elections. Although Peter predicts that Streeting is most likely to set aside his leadership ambitions for the meantime and push for a juicy role in Burnham’s cabinet, he adds: “It’s possible that if it becomes the consensus in Labour that there should be a contest to test Burnham’s ideas, then some MPs, particularly Starmer loyalists, might gravitate towards [Streeting]”, even though his popularity with the Labour membership is even worse than Starmer’s. And then there’s the party’s chronic inability to elect a woman to the top job – something Scottish Labour has managed three times, not to mention the Tories, the Scottish Tories, the Greens, the Scottish Greens, and the SNP. Last week, there were reports that frustrated Labour women were urging Yvette Cooper to stand amid concerns that a contest would only feature male candidates. *** Wake me up when September ends Team Burnham is advocating an extended timetable, Peter explains, that would see him in place by party conference, which begins on 27 September. This allows Starmer to enjoy one final act of statesmanship at the Nato summit in Turkey, next month: for all the manifold criticisms of his leadership, there’s agreement that he’s been an adept player on the world stage, in particular navigating the fragile nexus between Trump and Europe, even though dissatisfaction with his stance on Gaza has been felt keenly in many parts of the country. “This extended handover also gives Burnham time to think about who his cabinet would be and what his policy priorities are,” says Peter. As Greater Manchester mayor, Burnham’s focus has necessarily been narrow and regional. This summer would afford him time to expand his thinking and also get to grips with Downing Street’s communications strategy, universally agreed to be one of Starmer’s greatest weaknesses. And then there’s the small matter of uniting the party to fight Reform in the Manchester mayoral contest to replace Burnham, which is now set for 30 July. *** Does anyone else remember those clothes pegs? Mulling all of this, I was reminded of Polly Toynbee’s clothes pegs. (Stay with me!). Back in 2005, when I was editing her columns on the Opinion desk, she advised disillusioned progressive voters, furious at Tony Blair for joining the 2003 invasion of Iraq, to hold their noses at the general election and vote Labour – and offered them a free clothes peg to help. The Guardian subsequently provided hundreds of readers with a wooden clothes peg stamped with the words “vote Labour”. (Have any of you still got them? If so please take a photo – you don’t have to be wearing it – and send it in to first.edition@theguardian.com.) Since then, I’ve reported on people’s anger at successive prime ministers, but none have been so viscerally disliked across the spectrum as Starmer – so I called up Polly, who was busy working on her column, to ask what it is about him that stirs such passion. I’ve heard it myself on the doorsteps during the recent Holyrood election campaign: welfare reforms, Gaza, Mandelson … Weren’t no clothes peg big enough. And still Starmer didn’t take us into an illegal war or party while grieving relatives were kept away from their dying loved ones during Covid lockdowns. Is it down to that enduring criticism of Starmer’s poor storytelling, or voters’ accumulated disappointments, or simply politics in the social media age? “I’ve tried to analyse it a bit in the column,” Polly tells me, “which is a kind of warning to Andy Burnham too, that first impressions are so important. First there was Starmer’s very dismal speech in the Downing Street garden, then Rachel Reeves’s very dismal £22m black hole …” Polly’s list goes on: freebies, the winter fuel payment, the farmers’ tax. “They did a whole string of things behind the scenes that were really important – Great British Energy, the wealth fund – but they’re not the sort of things people notice. “What’s interesting is that the last four prime ministers have each been the most unpopular ever,” Polly adds. “That’s extraordinary. Maybe we’re in a time of such hatred of politics, after 20 years of stagnation and disappointed expectations.” Among Starmer’s remaining supporters, there is now, Peter tells me, a sense of profound unfairness. “At the same time, the poll numbers [showing Reform consistently ahead of Labour] don’t lie.” “Labour MPs aren’t simply worried about their seats but about the fact that, if there’s not a change at the top, Nigel Farage is going to be PM by 2029. They know this is a last roll of the dice.” The week to come Tuesday | This day marks the 10 years since the UK voted to leave the EU. A Guardian report analysing the complex legacy of Brexit through boats, bankers and borders is a good place to consider the legacy of leaving the EU. Tuesday | Also this day, Peter Murrell, the ex-chief executive of the SNP, is likely to be sentenced to prison custody after pleading guilty to embezzling more than £400,000 from the party. Wednesday | Donna Ockenden will publish her review of Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Britain’s biggest maternity care scandal. Friday | Kings Charles will become the first head of state to reveal their personal tax bill, and will release other financial reports for the royal household. What else we’ve been reading I really enjoyed this nuanced interview by Emma Loffhagan with Queenie author Candice Carty-Williams about the emotional labour of representing Black women in the publishing world. Libby Catherine Milne’s extraordinary piece about the death of her best friend, Annabel Rook, who after working to support victims of gender-based violence became one herself, is a loving tribute and a howl of outrage that more isn’t being done to protect women. Toby Moses, head of newsletters Having spent too much of my 20s squinting into the ugly lighting in the communal changing rooms at Topshop, Oxford Street, I was interested to read our sister newsletter Fashion Statement on the death of the changing room. Libby World Cup 2026 On the pitch Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde | The tiny nation with a population equivalent to that of Bristol delivered more heroics with a draw against Uruguay that opens up the possibility of the Blue Sharks reaching the knockout stage. Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia | A Hassan al-Tambakti own goal completed the scoring in Spain’s comprehensive World Cup Group H win against Saudi Arabia. Belgium 0-0 Iran | Iran had a goal disallowed for offside in the stalemate with 10-man Belgium, while Alireza Beiranvand pulled off a preposterous save to deny Maxim De Cuyper. New Zealand 1-3 Egypt | Mohamed Salah led Egypt ⁠to their first-ever World Cup victory as they recovered to beat ⁠New Zealand, moving top of Group G and boosting their hopes of ⁠reaching the knockout stage. Off the pitch Ghana | Midfielder Thomas Partey is in the spotlight as he prepares to begin his World Cup campaign, facing England and former Arsenal teammates after rape charges, which he denies. England| Declan Rice has revealed he has been managing nerve pain in a hamstring since Christmas as he reflected on the “obscene” number of matches he has played this season. Media | Fox’s broadcast in the US has become a story of two contrasting styles. And there is one clear winner. Today’s Fixtures Argentina v Austria, 6pm (BST), AT&T Stadium, Texas, USA France v Iraq, 1opm (BST), Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, USA Norway v Senegal, 1am (Tuesday) (BST), MetLife Stadium, New York, USA Jordan v Algeria, 4am (Tuesday) (BST), Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco, USA The front pages “Starmer expected to announce exit to clear way for Burnham”, is the Guardian’s front page today. The Times says “Burnham aiming for PM ‘coronation’ by September”, and the Telegraph similarly writes “Burnham plans to be in No10 by September”. Still on politics, the i Paper has “Burnham’s stark ultimatum to Starmer: resign or face mass Labour walkouts” and the Mail says “Now rip up tax pledges, Labour left tell Burnham”. The Express has “Now brace yourself for more ‘reckless’ tax and spend”. The FT runs “Starmer on brink of stepping down as Burnham heads for Westminster”, and the Mirror’s headline is “Game over”. Lastly, Metro plays on the hot weather and political drama with “Coup, what a scorcher!”. Today in Focus The complicated truth about adoption reunions Guardian news editor David Batty spent years longing to meet his birth mother. But his reunion with the woman who had been forced to give him up was far from the fairytale he had imagined. He explains why the legacy of forced adoption continues to cast such a long shadow. Cartoon of the day | Stephen Lillie The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Most of us don’t need extreme exercise to keep fit. We need to lift groceries and grandchildren, care for kids or avoid injuries at a five-a-side game. As Brian Murray, the founder of Motive Training, puts it: “Real life doesn’t look like the gym.” Murray is one of a dozen movement coaches, personal trainers and strength specialist weighing in on simply moves that make everyday life easier: side planks to help stay upright on public transport; a yoga move that makes retrieving something off the top shelf in the kitchen easier (and safer); or lunges to get up after a stumble. Even the most basic of things we did as children – skipping – not only help you warm up your body, it can also give you a little burst of joy, says one fitness coach Steve Kamb: “Plus, it’s basically impossible not to smile while you do it.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Western Australian poultry farms locked down as second wild bird dies from H5N1 bird flu

Poultry farms in Western Australia have gone into lockdown after the deadly H5N1 bird flu arrived on the country’s mainland, with tests confirming a second bird also carried the disease. On Monday, the Ingham’s Group – Australia’s largest poultry producer – announced a “complete lockdown” in WA, despite no commercial detection of H5N1. It came after a brown skua, found on a remote beach near Esperance, was discovered to have the “highly pathogenic” H5N1 virus on the weekend. Both birds have since died, the WA government confirmed. A giant petrel, found several kilometres away, also tested positive for the H5 strain, ministers said on Monday, as the WA government confirmed more than 50 calls to a hotline to report sick and dead birds. Before the confirmation of H5N1’s arrival, Australia had been the only continent free of the virus, which has killed millions of birds and thousands of marine mammals since 2021. Ingham’s said in a statement it would ask the state government to allow free-range chickens to be kept indoors, while all nonessential access to its operations would be stopped. The state’s chief veterinary officer, Dr Michelle Rodan, said there were 42 calls to the emergency animal disease hotline from “multiple locations around the state” about unwell and dead birds on Sunday. There had been 16 calls the previous day. Based on a risk assessment of the likelihood of an H5 infection, nine samples were collected for testing, including from reports of dead seabirds in the Esperance area – where the skua and petrel had been discovered sick. Australia’s chief veterinary officer, Dr Beth Cookson, said there was “no indication [the disease] has spread to other populations”. She told ABC’s Radio National the virus had not been detected in wildlife, poultry or agricultural systems. But Cookson said authorities were trying to work out whether the infected birds had spread the disease to other populations. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email “Our approach is to really learn from the overseas experience and look at the practical actions that can be put in place to mitigate the impacts as far as possible,” she said on Monday. Ingham’s share price fell by as much as 14% early in the day, before retracing some of the losses to close down by almost 5% at $2 a share. The group said in an ASX announcement that its breeder farms and grower networks are mostly located north of Perth, several hundred kilometres from where the positive cases have been found in the Esperance region. The share price has been sliding for four months and was down more than 23% in the year to date, according to the news agency. The Australian Financial Review reported on 1 June that the $777m company was “deep in turnaround mode”, after a contract with Woolworths was restructured. ‘Stressful time for farmers’ Watt said state and territory environment ministers had been invited to a special briefing from Cookson and the threatened species commissioner, Dr Fiona Fraser, on Monday afternoon. “We’ve been working very hard with states, industry, environment groups [and] scientists over the last couple of years to make sure that we are as well prepared as we possibly could be,” he said. “As a government, we’ve invested $113m, including $11m in the most recent budget in those preparedness efforts. So I feel confident that we’ve got the systems in place, and that we’re working cooperatively with states, territories and others to make sure that we can manage this outbreak if it does get more serious.” The National Farmers’ Federation said it would be a “stressful time for farmers” but that Australia was well prepared. “It’s important to prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” president Hamish McIntyre said. The Greens, BirdLife Australia and the Australian Conservation Foundation echoed a call from the Invasive Species Council for the government to set up a $200m emergency fund to protect wildlife. Anyone seeing sick or dead birds or marine mammals were advised to avoid the animals and not handle them, but to take photos or a video and call the Emergency Animal Disease Hotline on 1800 675 888. – with Australian Associated Press