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Middle East crisis live: Conflict continues in Lebanon despite Trump hailing Israeli-Hezbollah de-escalation

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s continuing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East. Donald Trump has hailed an agreement to de-escalate the fighting in Lebanon, which has killed thousands of people and inflamed tensions in the broader US-Israeli war with Iran. Trump said Hezbollah, through intermediaries, had pledged not to attack Israel, while Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to pull back any troops preparing to attack Beirut. “Let’s see how long that lasts – Hopefully it will be for ETERNITY!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. According to Lebanon’s embassy in Washington, the agreement would not end the conflict in that country. But it calls for Israel to refrain from strikes on Beirut and its suburbs controlled by Hezbollah, while the Iran-aligned group would halt its attacks on Israel. Despite the agreement, hostilities in southern Lebanon – which Israel invaded in March – appeared to continue. This morning, the Israeli military said that it intercepted two projectiles that crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel, and that no injuries were reported. After Trump’s announcement, Netanyahu said Israel would continue military operations in southern Lebanon, where ground forces are pushing toward the Zahrani River, their deepest incursion in Lebanon in 25 years. His statement made no mention of a new ceasefire. Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said the group would support a full ceasefire across all Lebanon as a precursor to the withdrawal of Israeli troops. He did not say whether the group would stop its strikes on Israeli territory. Lebanon said it would seek to expand the ceasefire in talks with Israel in Washington tomorrow. That could clear the path for renewed efforts to end the three-month-old war that began with US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The process has been stuck in limbo for weeks under a fragile ceasefire as negotiators have been unable to agree on an initial framework for peace talks. In other developments: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) threatened to open “new fronts” and keep the strait of Hormuz closed over Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, state media reported. “Iran considers crossing the red lines in Lebanon and Gaza to mean direct war,” state TV quoted the IRGC’ intelligence organisation as saying. The ceasefire already in place between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon, Iran’s top diplomat said yesterday after Netanyahu ordered attacks on the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut. “Violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation,” foreign minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X. US secretary of state Marco Rubio will face questions at Congress today for the first time since the Iran war began. He will testify before House and Senate committees on the state department’s 2027 budget request, where he is expected to face questions about Trump’s war efforts and shifting diplomatic goals. Oil prices jumped and equities slid as Middle East peace talks stumbled and tensions mounted between Iran and the US. Crude futures shot more than 5% higher yesterday as an Iranian news agency announced Tehran had suspended the negotiations with the US via mediators, AFP reported. US forces intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American forces based in Kuwait late on Sunday, the US military said yesterday. No American personnel were harmed, it added.

Tuesday briefing: Palantir’s rise – and why so many oppose its role in the British state

Good morning. The Peter Mandelson story keeps unfolding. Peter Walker explains here what is in the latest release of documents, and Henry Dyer takes a look at the key papers missing from the latest disclosures. But today we are covering another major story – Palantir. Few companies attract controversy more than Palantir. Since the pandemic, the US data analytics company has grown voraciously, using its AI-driven software to make sense of intractable datasets for customers around the world. For the NHS, it analyses patient records; for the US military, it’s focused on targets in Iran. Palantir’s products are widely used, with the business now worth $375bn. Its rise has been noisy and contentious. Founded in 2003 by US tech billionaire and Trump ally Peter Thiel in the wake of 9/11, the firm’s eclectic list of clients includes the Israeli military, the NHS and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Earlier this year, Palantir’s co-founder and CEO Alex Karp published a much-maligned manifesto that implied certain cultures are inferior to others. Today on First Edition, I spoke with Guardian technology and AI reporter Aisha Down about Palantir’s rise – and why a growing number of people are criticising the company. First, the headlines. Five big stories UK politics | Peter Mandelson was receiving sensitive security briefings about the Foreign Office’s work, and was in discussions with the head of MI6, before he had completed the developed vetting process, documents reveal. Ukraine | Russian air raids on major Ukrainian centres including Kyiv, Dnipro and Kharkiv killed at least five people and wounded dozens by early morning on Tuesday, authorities said. Environment | More than a million jobs, higher wages, nearly half a trillion pounds in investment in the pipeline – the UK’s green economy is powering ahead, according to research by the country’s leading business organisation. US news | Donald Trump is reconsidering whether to keep pressing for a $1.8bn fund to compensate his allies, a person familiar with his thinking said, as the justice department paused the program to comply with a court order. UK news | Sir Alan Bates has said that the schemes set up to compensate post office operators over the Horizon IT scandal have been an “utter disaster” and that the government should not be involved in running them. In depth: ‘The controversy around Palantir is part of a larger moral panic’ In the Lord of the Rings lore, a “palantír” is a magical seeing stone used to communicate and monitor distant lands. These crystal balls are used to deceive and dominate in Middle-earth. It is from these fantasy novels that the tech company takes its name, one of a number of firms founded by Thiel with titles inspired by the trilogy. JRR Tolkien had an intense suspicion of all things tech, but his impact on Silicon Valley is vast – many of its most influential founders revere his work alongside Thiel, including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Napster co-founder Sean Parker, who had a Lord of the Rings-inspired wedding. To Tolkien, machines symbolised the desire for power over others. There are obvious echoes of his fears in the arguments of Palantir’s critics. From police forces to health care systems, armies to airlines, Palantir has clients globally, spanning government agencies and private companies. In its own words, Palantir powers “real-time, AI-driven decisions” in “critical government and commercial enterprises in the west from the factory floors to the front lines”. The National Health Service, the UK’s Ministry of Defence and several constabularies have contracts with Palantir, worth a total of £600m. Last month, London mayor Sadiq Khan blocked a £50m deal between Palantir and the Metropolitan police, having previously stated Londoners wanted public money going companies that “share the values of our city”. *** ‘A larger moral panic’ Palantir’s listing on the US stock market in 2020 saw its value increase by more than 1,500%, as excitement about artificial intelligence and widespread adoption by government agencies globally radically sped up its growth. All this has attracted criticism. In the days before it was listed, Amnesty International released a report raising serious concerns about Palantir’s human rights record, citing Palantir’s work with ICE. There is widespread opposition to the company’s growing reach in the British state. Earlier this year, almost a quarter of a million people called on ministers to break contracts with Palantir via two petitions. “Our NHS and other public services shouldn’t be cutting deals with a private company that helps armies kill people,” one read. Palantir says that its software is only used to process data in line with customer instructions and doing otherwise would be illegal. But that has not been good enough for some. Martin Wrigley MP voiced unease this week about a contract between the Financial Conduct Authority and Palantir. “My concern is the FCA is doing very significant investigations into sensitive data using a foreign-controlled company that could be advised to pass data across to the US government,” said Wrigley. “In the days of Donald Trump, control means whatever Trump thinks it means.” “In the Trump era, the UK and others have woken up to the idea that a lot of sovereign infrastructure and government data depend on US tech companies,” says Aisha. “While it is unproven, there is a sense that Trump could use US laws to subpoena and get UK sovereign data. The controversy around Palantir is part of a larger moral panic, but the company itself has been courting it.” *** ‘Completely anti-woke’ Controversies surrounding Palantir are often sparked by its CEO, Alex Karp. In an earnings call last year, he declared his company is the first to be completely anti-woke, and he has been an outspoken supporter of the Israeli military during the war in Gaza, while voicing support for AI weaponry. The 58-year-old insists that there is a moral element to his company’s work. The son of an African American artist and a Jewish paediatrician, Karp says he was brought up by progressive parents, but argues that the west has become too self-flagellating about its dominance. Karp says that his company’s main opponents, unusually for a data-processing company, do not come from business but are political. “The woke left and the woke right wake up every day figuring out how they can hurt Palantir, and if they get into power, they’ll hurt Palantir,” Karp said in an interview last year. Earlier this year, scrutiny of the company was turbocharged by its 22-point manifesto, posted on X. “It came out of nowhere – they didn’t need to do it,” says Aisha. “It was based on Karp’s book, The Technological Republic, that envisions a marriage between big tech and government. It was argued that Silicon Valley should build weapons of war and build police capability. It also implied that the west was superior to other civilisations.” *** Fears of influence Many Palantir critics are particularly concerned about the company’s access to sensitive information. Last month, the Financial Times reported that NHS England has given Palantir and other contractors access to patient data before it had been anonymised as part of a £330m NHS contract. Some fear that this commercial relationship opens the door to data-sharing that a future Reform UK administration might use in an immigration clampdown. A briefing by the health justice charity Medact said the “highly interoperable nature” of Palantir’s software could enable “data-driven abuses of state power”, including ICE-style raids. Palantir said it had no intention of using data in this way and would be in breach of contract if it did so. Aisha says that public attention on the company is driven by a growing mistrust of big tech. “The fears around the Palantir contract highlight people’s insecurity around what tech will be used to do,” she says. “It’s not like Palantir is unique in allowing its capabilities to be used for things that might make us morally unsettled. In the UK especially, it seems that this issue really speaks to people’s deepest fears about tech, their personal data and how it’s used.” *** Overvalued and vulnerable to the competition? Despite the growing noise around Palantir, Aisha cautions against fully buying into the controversy. The investor Michael Burry, made famous by The Big Short, has taken out a short position against Palantir, warning that the company is massively overvalued and vulnerable to competition. Karp has pushed back hard against Burry’s thesis. But Aisha says that others are also asking whether the hype around Palantir matches reality. “Part of this is security theatre,” suggests Aisha. “If you are courting all of this political noise, it could be to avoid the question as to whether your technology is actually useful. I think that’s the question they are more afraid of.” What else we’ve been reading This episode of the Today in Focus podcast is a bracing listen from Alaina Demopoulos on how the trad-wife movement acts as a shopfront for far-right politics. Libby Brooks The simple act of reading a book has become devilishly difficult in the era of distraction. Ioan Marc Jones explores whether we can retrain our brains to read again. Patrick I had a Marilyn Monroe photobook as a girl, and was fascinated by her long before I could put together questions about women’s bodies and celebrity culture. So I really enjoyed this thoughtful interview with the man behind the camera at her final photoshoot. Libby Nature is quick to return if you allow it. Just three years into a rewilding scheme on a former dairy farm in east Somerset, the project has seen an explosion in bird life, butterflies and small mammals. Patrick As a Scot readying myself for the inevitable joy and pain of the World Cup, Suzanne Wrack’s meditation on the wider meaning of Arsenal’s weekend celebrations chimed with me. Libby Sport Tennis | Aryna Sabalenka beat Naomi Osaka in the first women’s night match at the French Open since 2023, marching into the quarter-finals with a hard-fought 7-5, 6-3 win. Football | Southampton’s head coach, Tonda Eckert, initiated the practice of spying on opponents, according to new documents which also show that an intern tasked with recording rival training sessions was assured the “manager loved it”. Boxing | Anthony Joshua has stressed that rather than coming to terms with his own grief after the car accident in which two of his closest friends died last December, his primary focus has been on helping their parents. The front pages “Mandelson files reveal security briefings before vetting passed”, is the Guardian’s top headline today. The i Paper says “Mandelson files reveal how the PM’s authority crumbled”, the Mail writes “Labour’s poisonous puppet master and a £1million cover-up” and the Mirror asks “What is left to hide?”. The Times, also on revelations from the Mandelson files, runs “Labour ‘only asks who can be taxed to pay benefits’”, the Telegraph takes a similar line with “‘Every meeting I have is: Who can we tax to pay benefits to others?’” and the Express also runs the same quote. The Sun’s take is “The welfare party” and Metro writes “Mandy: hire me, you will not regret it!” On a different topic, the FT splashes “Anthropic tests Wall St appetite for AI labs by filing for $1trn-plus listing”. Today in Focus: The Latest ‘Sit back and relax’: Trump insists Iran deal close despite strikes As Israel threatens to bomb Beirut and the US and Iran trade missile strikes, Donald Trump insists it will ‘all work out well in the end’ and urges his critics to ‘sit back and relax’. So are we any closer to a deal? Lucy Hough speaks to diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Rock art in a cave in south Wales has been confirmed as the UK’s oldest cave art, almost a century after the Guardian’s original report about it was dismissed. One can only imagine the original reporter posthumously air-punching after technological advances allowed the research team exploring the Bacon Hole cave in the limestone cliffs of south Gower to date the red-painted stripes, whose initial discovery was reported in the Guardian in 1912. But further examination cast doubt on the authenticity of the painting, and in 1928 experts decided it was nothing more than evidence of mineral seepage. Latest dating techniques, however, now suggest the panel is 17,100 years old, making it the oldest example of Palaeolithic art north-western Europe. It remains to be seen whether our Corrections and Clarifications editors take up the matter. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

‘Not the deal promised’: Labor’s Ed Husic questions Aukus pact that will deliver secondhand subs

Australia needs a backup plan for the Aukus submarine agreement, Labor MP Ed Husic has warned, arguing sluggish US production and the “transactional nature” of the Trump administration have put the multibillion-dollar defence deal at risk. The defence minister, Richard Marles, this week agreed to US requests for Australia to accept three second-hand Virginia-class nuclear submarines, rather than a combination of new and old vessels. Husic spoke out during Labor caucus on Tuesday in what former Labor minister Kim Carr described as an “courageous” intervention. It was the most significant internal criticism of the $368bn deal – agreed by the Morrison government in 2021 and endorsed by the then-Labor opposition – since heated debate at the ALP national conference three years ago. Labor ultimately continued its support of the multi-decade pact. Husic said production rates of submarines in the US were too low for Australia to realistically expect boats to be handed over in the early 2030s. The deal requires the sitting US president to agree to release submarines based on the US having an adequate supply for its own navy, even though Australia is paying to boost production. “We need to be open as a nation that we are not going to get the deal that was promised to us,” Husic said. “Given how transactional the Trump administration is, you can almost imagine them saying ‘we give you these, you will do this with them’, and so there’s an active sovereignty question there. “It won’t be a renegotiation; it’s a reality about the production rates and whether or not we’ll get them. What’s the contingency? What’s the plan B?” US shipyards currently produce between 1.1 and 1.2 Virginia-class submarines each year, well below the target yearly rate of 2.33 needed for the deal to go ahead as planned. Husic said there was disquiet about Aukus within the wider party rank and file. He suggested Marles had been forced by the US to say he was happy about the new arrangements after weekend talks with his counterpart, Pete Hegseth, in Singapore. “There’s an issue about [the] reality … confronting us, about whether or not we will even get the new deal that has been put to us based on what’s happening in the US,” Husic said. The former cabinet minister was dumped in a factional deal orchestrated by Marles after the 2025 election. He is close to the former prime minister Paul Keating, one of the loudest critics of the Aukus plan. The shadow defence minister, James Paterson, said Husic’s intervention represented a “full-on Labor revolt”. Paterson demanded Marles pull his colleague into line and reaffirm the government’s commitment to Aukus. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email “It’s absolutely legitimate to ask questions about how this government is going about delivering Aukus, about the details of Aukus,” the Liberal MP said. “What is much more concerning is to have a former cabinet minister still in the Labor caucus questioning the merits of Aukus altogether.” Paterson questioned why secondhand submarines would be cheaper and easier to operate, as claimed by Marles. “If that was the case, why wasn’t this the optimal pathway three years ago,” he said. After meetings on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday, Marles said servicing and training efforts would be streamlined because Australian crews would not operate two different American-made submarines before the bespoke SSN Aukus model comes online in 2042. The first Virginia-class from the US was due to arrive in Australia in 2032, with another arriving every four years, before the Australian-built model was ready for operations. The former Labor industry minister and long-time Aukus critic Kim Carr praised Husic for breaking ranks. “Aukus commits Australia to an extremely expensive, high-risk, long-term military project that deepens dependence on an increasingly erratic US, while delivering uncertain strategic benefits decades into the future,” Carr told Guardian Australia. Husic’s comments come on the same day former Labor minister Peter Garrett was announced as the head of a public inquiry into Aukus, backed by unions and non-profit groups. Former West Australian Labor premier Carmen Lawrence and former defence force chief Chris Barrie were among the commissioners chosen for the inquiry, which is not a parliamentary review. Garrett said there had been no proper parliamentary scrutiny of the deal, calling it “the most momentous and expensive decision ever made by any Australian government in the modern era.” Opposition to Aukus continues to harden in the wider Labor movement, setting the stage for an internal fight at the party’s upcoming national conference in Adelaide. A motion calling on the Albanese government to review the security pact last month won support in the Victorian branch for the second year in a row. The grassroots Labor Against War action group is pushing to strip all references to Aukus from the national platform, which is up for debate at the July conference. The group’s submission to consultation on the draft platform, seen by Guardian Australia, seeks to insert a reference to the “illegal US-Israel war on Iran” and guarantee that Labor would not commit military forces to an armed conflict that is “not consistent with international law”. The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said on Tuesday that Labor remained committed to delivering Aukus. Arthur Rorris, the secretary of the South Coast Labour Council, which opposes the establishment of a nuclear submarine base at Port Kembla, said the proposed base was never intended for Australian submarines but “would be ceded to the United States navy as a staging post for their 7th fleet”. “Building submarines for Australia was never at the top of Washington’s agenda; establishing a base for their forever wars certainly is,” Rorris said on the weekend. • Additional reporting by Ben Doherty

Orbán’s oligarchs on edge as Hungary poised to launch wealth tax

In a dimly lit television studio, one of Hungary’s richest men is on the verge of tears. It is early May, weeks after the general election that ended Viktor Orbán’s 16-year grip on power, and the advertising mogul Balásy Gyula has an announcement to make. Gyula tells the interviewer that he has just surrendered his businesses to the state, along with a chunk of his private savings. He has even brought along a notarised deed – a legal document setting out the change of ownership. “In the current situation, I don’t think that our group of companies has a future,” he says. Gyula was among the most prominent beneficiaries of the Orbán era. His companies operated a network of poster sites known as the blue billboards, on which a succession of figures from the financier George Soros to the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, were designated as public enemies, in propaganda campaigns paid for by the state. Today, the billboards stand empty. Hungary’s new leader, Péter Magyar, and his party, Tisza, have their sights firmly set on Orbán’s oligarchs. Not only has Gyula’s access to public sector contracts come to an end, but the tax bill on his remaining millions is likely to rise. The finance minister, András Kármán, has promised that by 5 June he will provide more detail on a planned overhaul of the tax regime that could result in Hungary becoming the first current member of the EU to introduce a new wealth tax since the 1980s. Announcing the policy in a post on X last summer, Magyar said the move was “not a punishment but a sign of social justice and solidarity in a functioning and humane country”. The details so far are scant. In its manifesto Tisza promised a 1% annual tax for those with assets of more than 1bn forints (£2.4m), applied to the portion of their estate above that threshold. Property, shares in companies and assets held abroad would all be counted, Magyar said on X, as would possessions such as yachts, private jets, paintings and sports cars. To discourage avoidance, wealth owned by spouses and children would also be liable. “Hungary badly needs a wealth tax, for two reasons,” says Zoltán Pogátsa, a political economist and lecturer at the University of West Hungary. First, he believes existing taxes on wealth are too low, and second, he thinks it will ensure accountability. “Tisza’s wealth tax is a way of returning public money into the public coffers,” he says. After analysing the fortunes of the 50 richest Hungarians, as ranked by Forbes magazine, Pogátsa concluded 38 of them either acquired their wealth under Orbán through public tenders, or were already rich, but benefited extensively from public procurements during his tenure. Many occupy pivotal roles across media, energy, construction, banking and real estate, beneficiaries of what became known as the System of National Cooperation (NER), where political loyalty was rewarded with economic opportunity. Among the best known of the NER oligarchs is Lőrinc Mészáros, who tops the Hungarian Forbes list with an estimated net worth of $5bn. A gas fitter from the same small town as the former prime minister, his empire spans energy, construction, finance, tourism and media. Years ago, he credited his fortune to three things – “God, luck, and Viktor Orbán” – although he has also attributed his success to brains and hard work. At number 27 in the rankings, with $245m, is Orbán’s son-in-law, István Tiborcz. His interests include property, hotels and banking. The wealth tax debate is a global one, with the government in Brazil and trade unions in California pushing for legislation. In the UK the Green party and many Labour MPs back the idea. In France the socialist president François Mitterrand introduced the Impôt sur les Grandes Fortunes in 1982, only for it to be repealed under Emmanuel Macron. Last year the French parliament came very close to reinstating the levy, and it is likely to be a big talking point in next year’s presidential election. For now, however, Hungary looks set to move first. Magyar has a free hand, having secured a two-thirds majority in parliament. Described as an umbrella party, Tisza was originally centre-right but expanded to unite anti-Orbán voters from across the political spectrum. If there is one thing on which its backers agree, it is the need to dismantle the NER system. Magyar has promised to reform the public tender process, and established a National Asset Recovery and Protection Office to pursue corruption. However, in many cases, wealth was acquired within the rules that applied at the time. “This is where I think the wealth tax could come in, where it’s immoral but legal,” Pogátsa says. One or two business leaders have already spoken in favour. The trucking and transport entrepreneur Gábor Bojár, who backed Tisza during the campaign, told the news site Telex in April: “The rich pay taxes in other countries, too, and the average person pays proportionally much more in taxes – this is unfair and this system must be changed. “I am happy if I have to pay a lot of tax because that means we are probably earning a lot, too.” Not everyone agrees. Viktor Zsiday, an investment fund manager and economic commentator, says the solution to unfair enrichment should not be taxation but criminal proceedings. “It would be good if the wealth tax would not be mixed in the public discourse with the punishment of those with unfair income,” he wrote last year. Zsiday is not against redistribution per say, describing Hungary as “almost a tax haven for the rich”, but he would prefer to see higher tax rates on dividends and corporate profits. “A wealth tax puts Hungarian enterprises at a disadvantage as their tax burden is higher than companies owned by non-Hungarian nationals,” he told the Guardian. “That is surely not what the government wants but it is a campaign promise so it shall be enacted, unfortunately.” With a flat rate of income tax, low and high earners in Hungary pay only 15%. The rate for dividends and capital gains is also 15%. Inheritance tax is 18%, but immediate family members pay nothing on property. By comparison, the UK rate is 40%. Corporation tax is also low, by European standards, at only 9%. Since 2014, when Hungary introduced British-style trust laws, the ultra-rich have enjoyed generous tax exemptions for their private savings. To pay for public services, the Treasury has turned to other types of taxes. Workers pay welfare contributions of 18.5%. Weighing in at a hefty 27%, the VAT rate is the highest in the EU. The result is a system where workers shoulder a disproportionate share. Sales taxes tend to be among the most regressive forms of raising money because low earners spend a bigger proportion of earnings on basics such as food and fuel. The result is a massive concentration of assets at the top, says István Karagich, the chief executive of the business intelligence firm Blochamps Capital. Their research has been quoted by those on all sides of the debate because the government collects only limited information on wealth. There are 4.2 million households in Hungary. The top 1% own about 35% of assets, Karagich says. The top 10% own more than two-thirds. “This needs to change,” he says. “Let’s call it society revenge.” However, he believes the threshold of 1bn forints is too low. “If you have two properties and a small company you would be caught by the tax. Two million pounds is not the Jeff Bezos wealth. This tax will hurt Hungarian entrepreneurs with small and middle-sized companies.” He suggests a threshold of 5bn forints – about £10m – as originally proposed by Magyar when he announced the policy last summer. At this level, the state would raise about 100bn forints (£240m) a year from up to 10,000 households. At only 0.25% of annual government revenues, the sum raised seems hardly worth the effort. However, Tisza has proposed other measures to raise more from the rich, including ending tax exemptions for trusts. The extra cash will go to helping low earners. A basic rate of income tax of 9% has been promised, along with cuts to VAT. For Miroslav Palanský, an economics professor at Charles University in Prague and the head of research at the Tax Justice Network, wealth taxes are not just about raising money – they can boost the economy. “Inequality is not good for growth after a certain level. When wealth is more distributed, more people have the opportunity to contribute to GDP.” The changes should improve transparency because the revenue can only tax what it can measure. They may also lead to some new faces in the Forbes rankings.

A tale of two Francks? World’s oldest leader creates deputy role – raising prospect of dynastic succession

Since taking power in Cameroon 44 years ago, Paul Biya has done without a vice-president. In 1972, a decade before he first won the presidency, the role had been scrapped as the central African country transitioned from a federal to unitary state. Now, at the age of 93, people close to the world’s oldest head of state appear to have had a change of heart, and – according to their critics – they have one thing on their mind: the creation of a dynastic system that would transfer power to his son or his stepson. In April, parliament voted to amend the constitution to reintroduce the role of vice-president, who would be appointed by the president rather than elected. The bill stipulates that in the event of a president’s death or incapacity, the vice-president would take over as head of state until the end of the seven-year presidential term. Under the old system, the Senate leader would take over and an election be held as soon as possible. Several names have been mentioned as possible picks, including Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, the influential secretary general of the presidency, and Paul Atanga Nji, the minister of territorial administration. The finance minister, Louis-Paul Motazé, is also understood to be in the running. But reports say it is likely the role will go to either Franck Biya, the first of two children the president had with the late former first lady Jean-Irène Biya, or Franck Hertz, a son of the current first lady, Chantal Biya, often referred to as “Madame president” because of the significant influence she wields within government. In a statement after the constitutional change, the opposition politician Maurice Kamto did not mince his words. “The sitting president is establishing a constitutionally based republican monarchy, with a hereditary or nepotistic dynasty,” he said, describing the amendment as an “institutional power grab”. Discussions about Paul Biya’s health and age are generally considered taboo in Cameroon, but his prolonged absences from the public sphere in recent years have not gone unnoticed, fuelling speculation about who really wields power in the country. Ngoh Ngoh, an ally of Chantal Biya, holds the “power of signatory”, allowing him to legally sign official documents and make administrative decisions on the president’s behalf. Biya’s son and stepson have never held public office and have mostly lived under the radar. Hertz, who has a twin brother, was thrust into the public eye in 2022 after 8bn CFA francs (£10.5m) were reportedly stolen from his Yaoundé residence. The businessman is on the board of Tradex, an energy firm that Cameroon’s state oil company has a 54% stake in. In recent years, he has been joining the presidential entourage on foreign trips. In November 2023, four months after one such trip by Hertz to Moscow, Franck Biya officially collected his membership card of the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement. One diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said joining the party “after keeping his ambitions low” was a way for Biya to “throw his weight around” and show loyalty to his father. *** None of these machinations are particularly new in central Africa, where there is a long history of politics being a family affair. In Equatorial Guinea, 83-year-old Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who has been president since engineering a coup against his uncle in 1979, has been priming his son and vice-president, known as Teodorin, as successor. Until August 2023, Gabon had been ruled by the Bongo dynasty since its independence from France. And in Chad, the Déby family has held power since December 1990. In Cameroon, the constitutional amendment reignited a long-running succession debate. For years, Georges Gilbert Baongla, a controversial businessman, has claimed to be Paul Biya’s first son. In April, the 62-year-old claimed on national TV that he was the president’s actual heir and that Franck Biya had been adopted. Authorities have since summoned him for questioning. As the wrangling continues behind the scenes, governance in Cameroon remains at an impasse. During a speech on New Year’s Eve, Paul Biya said he was prioritising the formation of a new government, but several months later that is yet to happen. Parliamentary elections due last year have been postponed to this year at the earliest. “In the collective mindset of Cameroonians, deliberate manipulation and machinations underground by the powers that be is known by everyone,” said Levi Mboushou, a political analyst based in the city of Buea. The current cabinet, which contains some ministers who have held the same portfolio for up to two decades or longer, is entangled in several disputes. In February, the investigative newsletter Africa Confidential reported on a feud between officials over operations and contracts at the Port of Douala, the shipping hub of central Africa. Ngoh Ngoh and Biya’s chief bodyguard were on one side, while Motazé, who is considered loyal to Franck Biya, was on the other, along with the prime minister, Joseph Ngute. “The turf wars of power-hungry aides are threatening the stability of government … the fight over the spoils of power continues,” Africa Confidential wrote. “Some say it spells the beginning of the end of the regime.” Several crises are festering nationwide, including the Anglophone conflict, now in its 10th year in the west, and a jihadist insurgency in the north. Cameroonians’ appetite for protest has diminished after the deaths of at least 48 people in a crackdown during last year’s disputed presidential election. Ordinary citizens, Mboushou said, were going about their everyday activity, waiting for an implosion within the elite to disrupt the status quo. “They [the elite] fear that opposition to a father-son transition may not come from the streets but from within power circles … if an entire cast of power brokers are without power, they are likely to cause a rumpus within the political class.”

UN experts warn against ‘surging Israeli settler terror’ – as it happened

We’re wrapping up our live coverage of the Middle East crisis for now but we have a full report on the latest, and here’s a recap of the day’s events. Thanks for joining us. Donald Trump announced Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to “stop shooting” at each other in a mutual de-escalation. Hezbollah had pledged through intermediaries not to attack Israel, and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to pull back any troops preparing to attack Beirut, the US president said. Lebanon’s embassy in Washington said the agreement would not end the conflict but that it called for Israel to refrain from strikes on Beirut and its southern suburbs controlled by Hezbollah, while the Iran-aligned group would halt its attacks on Israel. Netanyahu said Israel would continue military operations in southern Lebanon, where ground forces are pushing their deepest incursion in 25 years. Hostilities in southern Lebanon later appeared to continue, with Hezbollah reportedly claiming several attacks on Israeli targets in the south late on Monday. The Israeli military said early on Tuesday it had intercepted two projectiles that crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel, with no injuries reported. Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said the militia would support a full ceasefire across all of Lebanon as a precursor to the withdrawal of Israeli troops. Lebanon said it would seek to expand the ceasefire in talks with Israel in Washington DC on Wednesday. Iranian state media said Tehran was halting indirect peace talks with the US and might end a ceasefire that has largely held since early April, citing the war in Lebanon. Trump later told CNBC the peace talks had “started to get very boring” and that he “couldn’t care less” if they were over. However, he also told US ABC News he expected there would be a deal with Tehran “over the next week” to extend the truce and reopen the strait of Hormuz. The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force threatened to expand its blockade of the strait of Hormuz to the Bab El Mandeb strait, another chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea. Oil prices rose 4% on Monday amid the heightened tensions. UN chief António Guterres said peacekeepers would be needed in Lebanon after the mandate of the current mission expired at the end of this year – an option likely to face opposition from the US and Israel. A team of 14 UN experts issued a “stark warning about surging Israeli settler terror” in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem and the “existential risk” it posed to Palestinian communities there. With news agencies

Ukraine war briefing: Ending war before winter ‘correct and realistic’, says senior Kyiv aide

A deal to end the war against Russia by winter is a “realistic” outcome, Kyrylo Budanov said. The celebrated former Ukrainian spymaster, now Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, said on Monday: “This is the president’s instruction: to try to end this war as soon as possible … preferably before winter. In my opinion, this is absolutely correct, timely, and realistic.” Zelenskyy in an interview aired on Sunday called for reviving stalled talks with Russia before the onset of winter to take account of Kyiv’s improved strategic position. A senior Ukrainian commander said last week that Ukraine had a six-month window in which to seize the battlefield initiative and strengthen its hand for peace talks. Budanov said he expected a US delegation to visit Moscow and Kyiv in the near future, without giving details. Kyiv came under heavy Russian attack early on Tuesday with authorities urging residents to seek shelter. The Kyiv mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said a fire broke out in the Podil district on the grounds of a non-residential property, and a nine-storey apartment building was on fire after debris apparently struck the roof. “In the Obolon district, cars are burning after being struck by falling missile debris. There are also fires at two locations in open areas, including one near a kindergarten,” Klitschko posted. Reuters and Agence France-Presse reported that air defences were at work in Kyiv according to their journalists and witnesses. Zelenskyy on Monday reiterated warnings of a possible massive Russian strike and urged residents to pay special attention to air raid alerts. A suspected Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker has been detained by France in the Atlantic, Angelique Chrisafis writes. The Tagor was detained on Sunday morning in international waters more than 400 nautical miles (740km) west of Brittany with the help of the UK and other partners, said the French president, Emmanuel Macron. French authorities said the ship had departed Murmansk in north-west Russia, and was headed for Cameroon under a false Cameroonian flag. It was being escorted to an anchorage for further inspection. Moscow complained of piracy. Macron said everything was conducted “in strict compliance with the law of the sea … It is unacceptable for ships to circumvent international sanctions, violate the law of the sea, and finance the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for more than four years.” Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s military was capable of hitting Russian military logistics “across virtually the entire depth of the temporarily occupied territories … In practice, there are almost no safe roads left for the occupier in the south and east of our country.” The Russian government intends to increase fuel supplies from Belarus and tighten oversight of exports of gasoline and diesel because of domestic fuel shortages, the RBC news outlet reported on Monday. RBC also reported that a complete ban on gasoline exports for two months, including under some inter-governmental agreements, is under discussion. Fuel sales in Sevastopol in illegally Russia-occupied Crimea would be limited on Tuesday, said Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-installed de facto governor, amid gasoline rationing caused by Ukrainian attacks. Russia on Monday also banned the export of aviation fuel until the end of November. Dozens of countries denounced Russia at the UN on Monday after a Russian drone hit a Romanian apartment building, injuring two people. “Such behaviour is unacceptable under international law and must stop,” said the Romanian foreign minister, Oana-Silvia Toiu, in a statement representing 56 UN members, including from the EU and Nato.

Mexico City police teargas teachers’ protest 10 days before World Cup

Riot police fired teargas at teachers who were marching toward Mexico City’s historic Zócalo plaza, just days before the square is expected to host the 2026 World Cup “Fan Fest”. The incident is the second time police have clashed with teachers in the past week, and more conflict is likely as Mexico City prepares to hold the opening game of the Fifa World Cup on 11 June. “This event will have to be suspended,” Filiberto Frausto, a union leader, told AFP, which witnessed police firing teargas on 1 June. “A cause like ours should be far above – it’s far more important than a little bit of distraction and fun.” Teachers associated with the CNTE union, which has called for salary raises and the reversal of pension laws, began threatening to protest during the World Cup in mid-May, during a march on Teacher’s Day. Pedro Hernandez Morales, general secretary of CNTE section 9 in Mexico City, warned that if demands are not met before the opening match “the ball will not roll”, Al Jazeera English reported. Demonstrating teachers on Monday had broken through one of the metal barriers blocking off the Zócalo when riot police hurled teargas at them. AFP reported that one of the protesters said he was hit by an unidentified projectile, and was taken away as blood poured from a head injury. On 26 May, Mexico News Daily reported that riot police had blocked teachers affiliated with the Oaxaca-based section 22 of the CNTE teachers union who had tried to enter the square to set up a protest camp. “They repressed us, they hit us, they pushed us,” Francisca Pérez, a teacher from Oaxaca, told the EFE news agency. Manuel López San Martín, an Azteca News journalist, shared footage on social media of police using fire extinguishers to disperse teachers. In a joint statement, the ministry of public education and ministry of the interior said the teacher’s union had been advised that it was too dangerous to gather in the historic plaza due to ongoing construction. The union has threatened to summon “millions” of teachers to the capital during the World Cup if the government doesn’t fulfill their demands, and could call for a nationwide strike.