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Trump has growing stranglehold over EU and UK energy supply, study shows

Donald Trump has a stranglehold over EU and UK energy supply as a result of Europe swapping its dependency on Russia for reliance on the US, analysis has shown. In part due to the war in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russian pipeline gas, European countries have become dependent on shipments of US liquified natural gas (LNG), according to a paper co-authored by the Clingendael Institute, in The Hague, the Ecologic Institute, in Berlin, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. The development is fraught with risk at a time when Trump has shifted “towards a more explicitly interest-driven, protectionist and ideologically charged approach”, the paper says. The US president has most recently threatened to use tariffs on trade with European allies in order get their agreement on his acquisition of Greenland, which is part of Denmark, an EU member state and Nato ally. Trump’s controversial national security strategy paper published in November explicitly stated that the White House was seeking US energy dominance, which “when and where necessary – enables us to project power”. Data showed that imports to the European Economic Area of US LNG – natural gas that is supercooled to make it easier to transport – increased by 61% in 2025. The EEA comprises the 27 EU states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. Imports to the EEA were up 485% compared with 2019 and US LNG now accounted for 59% of LNG imports to the EU, according to gas flows data from December. In 2024, the UK covered 50% of its gas demand with domestic production and 33% with imports from the EEA. It is otherwise reliant on LNG, of which shipments from the US made up 68% of its total imports. Pipeline gas imports from Russia accounted for 60% of EEA gas imports in 2019 but by 2025 this share had fallen to 8%. Prof Kacper Szulecki, of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, said: “We have to acknowledge the new reality of Donald Trump’s American energy dominance and look at Europe’s imports cautiously. “The US national security strategy of 2025 explicitly frames energy exports as a way to project power. The US has tried a similar approach in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan, attempting to talk European partners out of gas trade with the USSR. But back then there was no technology for liquefying natural gas, so Europe had no alternative but Russian pipeline gas.” Szulecki said there was a short-term risk of higher energy bills as a result of the recent tensions. “At the moment, gas reserves in the EU are very low, the lowest in years, and lower than at the outset of the war in Ukraine. If we have a cold winter and tensions with the US, leading to further price increases and reserve depletion, we might see a really dramatic energy crisis in the coming months,” he said. “The EU is considering breaking trade deals with the US in response to the Greenland tariffs, but as policymakers in Brussels point out, there is no real alternative to the gas from the US at the moment.” Raffaele Piria, the initiator of the report and a senior researcher at the Ecologic Institute, said the UK, now outside the single market, was just as exposed as its European allies. “The UK is affected by exactly the same geopolitical and economic vulnerabilities as the European Economic Area, and in fact it is physically and economically fully integrated in the European gas grid and gas market,” he said. “Since the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has paid a high price for its reliance on Russia in energy trade. The US seemed to be a reliable alternative. Historically, interferences by the US government in gas markets to exert pressure on Europe were considered unthinkable. In the current geopolitical context, this assumption is questionable.” The paper argues that Europe needs to act given that “energy – particularly gas – exports increasingly function as a tool of strategic leverage”. In the medium to long term, Europe should “accelerate the transition to an efficient and modern energy system based on indigenous renewable sources”, it says.

Commuter train near Barcelona hits collapsed wall killing driver and injuring nearly 40

A commuter train has hit a collapsed retaining wall near Barcelona, killing the driver and injuring 37 people, four of them seriously, firefighters have said. Four people are believed to be in a critical condition after the incident in the Catalonia region of north-eastern Spain, a spokesperson for the region’s fire service, Claudi Gallardo, told reporters. The incident on Tuesday came just two days after the collision of two high-speed trains in Andalucía, in the south of the country, which left at least 42 people dead and dozens injured. “A retaining wall collapsed on to the tracks, causing an accident involving a passenger train,” the region’s civil protection agency posted on its social media accounts. Twenty ambulances have been dispatched to the site in Gelida on the outskirts of Barcelona along with 38 firefighter units, emergency services authorities said. Catalonia’s fire service said “no one remained inside” the train carriages after conducting a review of the site. “We are reviewing the underside of the train and conducting a sweep of the area to rule out any further victims,” it said on X. “We continue securing the area to work safely.” Spain’s railway operator, Adif, said the containment wall probably collapsed because of heavy rainfall that swept across Catalonia this week. The suburban train derailment occurred in a region long plagued by underfunded rail services and frequent incidents. Emergency workers on Tuesday were still searching for more victims in the wreckage from Sunday’s accident that took place about 500 miles away as the nation began three days of mourning. Associated Press contributed to this report

Canada briefly detains Israeli comedian after complaints over conduct in Gaza

An Israeli comedian and former combat soldier was detained and interrogated for six hours while traveling to Canada on Monday after a pro-Palestinian legal group filed a complaint against him accusing him of war crimes and “incitement to genocide”. The comedian, Guy Hochman, was detained upon arrival at Toronto Pearson international airport and only released after the intervention of the Israeli consulate, according to the Times of Israel. His detention came after the Hind Rajab Foundation, a Belgium-based group that aims to hold Israeli military personnel accountable for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, filed a 40-page dossier about him with Canadian authorities. The groups Canadian Lawyers for International Human Rights and the Legal Centre for Palestine also joined the complaint. Hochman’s performance went on as scheduled following his release. On Tuesday, the Hind Rajab Foundation also filed a complaint urging US authorities to investigate and prosecute Hochman, who is scheduled to perform in New York City on Tuesday evening. The group argued that the scheduled performance “poses an imminent risk of further criminal conduct” and noted that in addition to international law, Hochman’s conduct might violate US federal criminal statutes, including the War Crimes Act and genocide statute. The group’s dossier, which includes several photos and videos Hochman himself posted on social media, details evidence of his presence and participation in September 2024 in the destruction of the Raed al-Attar Mosque in Rafah – which the group notes was a religious structure protected under international law. It also accuses Hochman of “clear, repeated, and public incitement to genocide” against Palestinians in Gaza, in statements made both during his time working along with the Israeli military and during performances and online broadcasts. According to the group, Hochman called for the “mass killing and extermination” of Palestinians, advocated for the use of nuclear weapons against Gaza, celebrated civilian deaths, and called for the starvation, displacement and collective punishment of Palestinians, among other statements. He also called for the destruction of religious sites, including stating that “not a single mosque will remain in Gaza”. Hochman did not immediately respond to a request for comment but he confirmed the detention in a social media post. “They tried to stop me from entering Canada, but after 6 hours of delay, I got in,” he wrote. “They tried to prevent me from performing in front of the Israeli community, I performed. “And while they kept shouting ‘free Palestine’ to themselves in minus 10 degrees, we warmed up with laughter–400 Israelis inside. That’s what victory feels like.” Dyab Abou Jahjah, the Hind Rajab Foundation’s general director, said that the group “does not chase comedians”. “What we are dealing with here is not comedy. It is genocidal propaganda and incitement to violence,” he added. “Moreover, Guy Hochman is not only an inciter; he is also a perpetrator of war crimes who filmed himself while committing them.” A former combat soldier, Hochman began producing and disseminating videos with soldiers following the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks and was later recruited and deployed to Gaza as an “entertainer” linked to the IDF spokesperson unit, according to the Hind Rajab Foundation’s dossier. The Israeli military did not answer questions about the allegations in the dossier or its relationship with Hochman but said “this is not an IDF matter”. “Every country in the world has an affirmative legal duty to seek out and punish all war criminals and genocidaires within their borders, and the United States is no exception,” Jake Romm, HRF’s representative in the United States, said of the Tuesday filing against Hochman in New York. “The US now has a choice: apply its own laws in compliance with its international legal obligations, or further erode the rule of law and allow its soil to be used for the gravest of crimes.” Neither Canadian officials nor the US justice department immediately responded to a request for comment. Israeli soldiers have posted scores of photos and videos of themselves in Gaza, a practice the military has attempted to rein in as criminal efforts against them have mounted overseas.

UK to hand Chagos Islands to Mauritius despite Trump’s taunts, No 10 says

The UK will press ahead with plans to hand the Chagos Islands back to Mauritius despite Donald Trump calling it an “act of great stupidity” and suggesting it was among the reasons he wants to take over Greenland. The US president said ceding sovereignty of the British Indian Ocean Territory, which includes the Diego Garcia military base, was a sign of “total weakness” by the UK. The unexpected move caught the UK government off guard after Trump warmly endorsed the handover when Keir Starmer visited the White House last year and the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, signed it off. Downing Street insisted on Tuesday that the US still supported the agreement, which is intended to provide a firm legal basis for the operation of the strategically important facility, despite Trump’s remarks. Starmer’s official spokesperson said: “Our position remains unchanged. This deal secures the operations of the joint US-UK base for generations. It has robust provisions for keeping its unique capabilities intact and our adversaries out. It has been publicly welcomed by the US. “As the world grows more dangerous, so too does the importance of the base for our national security. It’s one of the most significant contributions to the UK and US intelligence and security relationship, and almost every operation from the base is in partnership with the US.” Trump, who is travelling to Davos in Switzerland for the World Economic Forum, made the claim as he ramped up his rhetoric on Greenland, firing off a flurry of posts on his Truth Social platform about taking over the Arctic territory, which is part of Denmark. He wrote: “Shockingly, our ‘brilliant’ Nato Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital US Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. “There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognise STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. “The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired.” Trump’s comments will add fuel to Conservative and Reform criticism of the move. Both parties have cited US concerns as a reason to drop the deal with Mauritius, but they have been met with surprise by Labour as they had previously criticised Trump’s threats over Greenland. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, said: “Paying to surrender the Chagos islands is not just an act of stupidity but of complete self sabotage. I’ve been clear, and unfortunately on this issue President Trump is right. Keir Starmer’s plan to give away the Chagos Islands is a terrible policy that weakens UK security and hands away our sovereign territory. And, to top it off, makes us and our Nato allies weaker in face of our enemies.” The Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, said: “Thank goodness Trump has vetoed the surrender of the Chagos Islands.” However, the chief secretary to the prime minister, Darren Jones, suggested Trump’s intervention would not have an effect on the UK’s deal with Mauritius and that it was no longer possible to “reverse the clock” on the decision. “We’ve done a deal with the Mauritian government, we’ve legislated for the process, we’ve agreed the terms of the treaty, which has been signed,” he told Sky News. “This is the way in which to secure that military base for the next 100 years.” The welfare secretary, Pat McFadden, who is close to Starmer, told broadcasters: “I think what we saw last night was a series of posts criticising a number of world leaders. That may tell us that the president is frustrated right now. “I don’t really believe this is about Chagos, I think it’s about Greenland, and the best way to resolve that is through dialogue with the Danish government, and that’s what we’ve said all along.” The UK has signed a £3.4bn agreement to cede sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius but it is facing significant opposition in the House of Lords. Under the plan, Britain will cede control over the islands to Mauritius but lease the largest, Diego Garcia, for 99 years to continue operating a joint US-UK military base there. Downing Street has said in the past that the deal is a “legal necessity” and is backed by the “five eyes” intelligence-sharing partnership with the UK. A UN court gave an advisory opinion in 2021 that the UK did not have rightful sovereignty over the archipelago. At the time of the agreement in May 2025, Rubio welcomed it as “historic”. “This is a critical asset for regional and global security,” he said. “President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with prime minister Starmer at the White House. This milestone reflects the enduring strength of the US-UK relationship.” Critics of the handover have said the deal gives China an opening in the region because of its close relations with Mauritius. Trump has regularly cited fears of Chinese influence as a reason he intends the US to take over Greenland.

Kurdish forces withdraw from IS detention camp in north-east Syria

Kurdish-led forces in Syria have announced a withdrawal from a detention camp in north-east Syria housing tens of thousands of Islamic State-linked detainees, as the US declared it was no longer supporting them. The fate of al-Hawl, which houses among others the most radical foreign women suspected to have been members of IS and their families, is of great concern to neighbouring states and the international community. These states have warned for years that the camp is a hotbed of extremism and that chaos could result if a jailbreak were to occur. But on Tuesday evening the US said it believed it could work with the Syrian government against IS. Al-Hawl houses an estimated 24,000 people, mostly Syrians and Iraqis but also 10,000 from other countries, and it is unclear what will happen as Syrian government forces move in. A spokesperson for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said: “Our forces were compelled to withdraw from al-Hawl camp and redeploy in the vicinity of cities in northern Syria that are facing increasing risks and threats.” They blamed the withdrawal on a “failure of the international community”. A smaller number of female detainees – about 2,400, including Shamima Begum who was stripped of her UK citizenship – are being held at al-Roj camp further to the north-east and still under Kurdish control. The Syrian government said it would assume control of al-Hawl camp, accusing the SDF of leaving it without guards, allowing detainees to escape. It also accused the SDF of doing the same at a prison in Raqqa from which 120 prisoners escaped, a claim the SDF denied. The withdrawal came as the Syrian government swept through north-east Syria, making unprecedented gains as the SDF lost vast swathes of its territory in just a few days. The SDF lost Raqqa and Deir el-Zour on Sunday as tribal elements defected from the Kurdish-led force and pushed it to withdraw from the Arab-majority areas. The rapid advance of Damascus’s forces and partial collapse of the SDF almost overnight was stunning: the Kurdish-led group had controlled nearly a third of the country, with US support, since 2019. It was the biggest shift in frontlines since the fall of the former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Tom Barrack, the US envoy for Syria, said on Tuesday evening the US no longer supported the SDF in the fight against IS. Though the SDF had “proved the most effective ground partner in defeating Isis’s territorial caliphate by 2019”, he said that was because there was “no functioning central Syrian state”. The US diplomat said the situation had “fundamentally changed” with the overthrow of al-Assad and his replacement by Ahmad al-Sharaa. “Syria now has an acknowledged central government that has joined the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS,” he wrote on X, meaning that “the original purpose of the SDF as the primary anti-ISIS force on the ground has largely expired”. A 14-point ceasefire agreement signed on Sunday by President al-Sharaa and the head of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, collapsed the next day after a disastrous meeting in Damascus. However, on Tuesday night the Syrian presidency announced a four-day ceasefire with the SDF so that the 14-point agreement could be implemented. It said that if an agreement could be reached, the Syrian government would not enter Kurdish-majority cities, such as al-Hasakah and Qamishli, and that security forces would be drawn from local residents. It also said Abdi would nominate a candidate from the SDF to be the deputy defence minister, MPs for the national parliament, and lists of people to be employed in the Syrian public sector. The announcement seemed to stave off immediate further fighting between the two sides and to reassure Kurdish officials that their rights would be respected. Syrian government sources had previously accused Abdi of trying to stall the implementation of the 14-point agreement, which would turn over most of the Kurdish-led authorities’ institutions and governance to Damascus. Ilham Ahmed, a senior leader of the Kurdish-led authority, said Abdi requested a five-day grace period to implement the agreement, which was initially rejected by Damascus. “They wanted a direct handing over of everything to Damascus. However, with or without this meeting they wanted to go to war … and now their plan is to massacre the Kurds,” Ahmed said on Tuesday. After the meeting, Kurdish officials, Abdi included, called for a general mobilisation across Kurdish-majority areas and to resist Damascus’s advance towards their territory. SDF media published pictures of people, young and old, holding assault rifles seemingly in preparation for a further assault. Clashes between the two sides continued on Tuesday, with shelling reported in Kobani, a Kurdish-majority area on the Turkish border, and Syrian government forces entering al-Hasakah. The areas lost to Damascus’s forces so far have been Arab-majority areas, where many residents had longstanding resentments against the SDF. The SDF has seemingly dug into areas closer to the borders with Iraq and Turkey, which are populated mainly by Kurds. If the four-day ceasefire fails and Damascus’s forces advance into Kurdish-majority areas, fighting is likely to be deadlier than in previous days. In those areas they have infrastructure, including heavy artillery, drones and underground tunnel networks. The Kurdish population view the fight as existential and have pointed to mass killings when Syrian government forces entered Sweida province and the Syrian coast last year as an example of what could happen to them if Syrian government forces took over the area. The Syrian government said in a statement on Tuesday that it would not enter Kurdish areas and that the army’s goal was “to restore stability and protect government institutions”. The SDF was for years the US’s biggest partner in Syria and together they defeated the IS “caliphate” in 2019. It is the military wing of a Kurdish statelet, an autonomous area that had its own institutions and government. Among other things, it protected Kurdish rights, which for years had been repressed by al-Assad and his father. When al-Assad fell, the SDF and Damascus came to the negotiating table, with the former seeking to retain its autonomy and the latter wanting to consolidate control over the country. Despite the signing of an agreement on 10 March last year to integrate the SDF into Syria’s army, the two sides remained at odds and occasionally clashed. At the weekend, the US urged the Syrian government to halt its advance at the dividing line of the Euphrates River, but government forces pushed on. It has since stayed silent as the government continued its campaign against the SDF. Damascus’s advance over the last week has helped it extend control over most of the country, and crucially, the country’s largest oil and gasfields, as well as key dams.

Six-year-old girl is only member of family to survive Spanish rail disaster

A six-year-old girl who had travelled to Madrid to see a musical was the only member of her family to survive Sunday’s rail disaster in southern Spain, which killed 42 people, among them her parents, her brother and her cousin. The girl, who has not been named, was found walking along the tracks after two trains collided near the town of Adamuz in the Córdoba province of Andalucía. She had emerged from the accident with only a minor head wound. According the Spanish media, the child and her family had been on their way home to Aljaraque, on the Atlantic coast near Huelva, after travelling to the capital to see the Lion King musical and to visit the Bernabéu stadium in Madrid. The outing had been a treat to celebrate the Christian feast of the Epiphany, which is when Spanish children traditionally receive their Christmas presents. José Carlos Hernández Cansino, the mayor of the nearby town of Punta Umbría, told the broadcaster Canal Sur: “We’d been hoping that we wouldn’t have to declare any days of mourning or to lower the flag to half mast. But then we got the call telling us that four members of the same family who were missing had been found dead, confirming our worst fears.” He said the girl’s survival was “a miracle”. Adrián Cano, the mayor of Aljaraque, said the town was “broken with grief and almost without words of comfort”. The girl was cared for overnight by a police officer before being reunited with her grandmother in Córdoba, authorities said. As work continued to recover the remaining bodies of those who died in Spain’s worst rail crash in more than a decade, other families shared stories of what had happened to their loved ones. Alberto García told the Antena 3 TV channel that one of his daughters, who is five months pregnant, was in intensive care because of serious injuries she sustained in the crash. He said doctors had placed her under sedation and on a ventilator and were monitoring the baby’s heartbeat. Relatives told El País that firefighters had pulled the woman unconscious from the wreck of the carriage after passengers smashed windows to escape from the train. Her sister, Ana, who was travelling with her and their dog, had lighter injuries. Relatives say the dog, named Boro, is still missing. Ana said she believed her sister may have been injured while trying to protect the animal. “If I can’t do anything for her, at least I hope I can find Boro,” she told El Mundo. Spain began three days of national mourning on Monday to honour the dead. The high-speed train was travelling from Málaga to Madrid when it derailed near Adamuz, crossing on to another track where it hit an oncoming train travelling from Madrid to Huelva. Reuters contributed to this report

Save Greenland for us all with a global protectorate | Letters

Your leader marks the historic moment when European nations finally stepped up to Trump’s bullying over Greenland (The Guardian view on Trump and Greenland: get real! Bullying is not strength, 18 January). However, Keir Starmer’s response remains weak. By saying Greenland is only a matter for Denmark and Greenland, he tries to rewind the clock to a status quo that is plainly no longer adequate. Greater vision has a clear historical precedent: for nearly 70 years, Antarctica has been kept out of military competition and resource grabs by the Antarctic treaty. With this 1959 treaty, countries with competing interests accepted that some places are too important to be owned, and must instead be protected for science, peace and the common good. That precedent applies even more strongly to Greenland. Its ice sheet plays a central role in regulating the global climate, and what happens there affects everyone. Creating a new strong international protectorate, explicitly safeguarding Greenlanders’ right to have a veto over its terms, could address defence and climate risks for the international community too. If the UK and the EU truly believe in strong diplomacy, this is the moment to show imagination, and to walk as well as talk, on the road back to international cooperation. Future stability could be built around a process of creating a Greenlandic international protectorate. Dr Rupert Read Co-director, Climate Majority Project Dr Andrew Boswell Climate policy consultant Dr Nick Brooks Director, Garama 3C Bridget McKenzie Founder, Climate Museum UK • I found the piece about Donald Trump’s billionaire “friend” Ronald Lauder sickening (How a billionaire with interests in Greenland encouraged Trump to acquire the territory, 15 January). Lauder’s huge business empire deals in beauty, but his motives are beyond ugly. His cosy relationship with the president and his deals in Greenland are yet more evidence of the greedy gang of men getting rich with Trump – from his sons Donald Jr and Eric to his real‑estate pal Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. I have always loved one perfume made by Estée Lauder, called Pleasures. But I’ve now thrown it away. That sweet fragrance is poison for all of us who despise the exploitation of resources and peoples that this man and his evil gang stand for: they stink. Dee Cook Whitchurch, Shropshire • Greenland was part of the European Union until 1985, when it left following a referendum. As a then member of the European parliament’s Socialist group, I sat alongside Finn Lynge, representing the country for the Siumut party. Maybe in light of the fact that Donald Trump is intent on “conquering Greenland” and the country’s dramatically changed circumstances, and its preference for Denmark and the EU over the US, Ursula von der Leyen could offer fast-track re-entry. You never know, it might set a precedent. Glyn Ford Labour MEP 1984-2009 • Surely it would send the US government a message if all European countries – not just those threatened by additional tariffs for supporting Greenland – stated that they would pull out of both the Fifa World Cup this year and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics if Trump persists in his plans to take over Greenland. Caroline Duchet Chepstow, Monmouthshire • It’s a bit rich of Trump to ask of the Danes about Greenland: “Why do they have a ‘right of ownership’ anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago” (Donald Trump links Greenland threats to Nobel snub as EU trade war looms, 19 January). Surely that’s the same premise that led to the existence of the United States of America? Rupert Featherstone Dickleburgh, Norfolk • Wait, so are you telling me that appeasement doesn’t work (EU considers retaliatory measures over Trump Greenland tariff ‘blackmail’, 19 January)? If only there was some historical precedent from which we could have learnt this lesson… Séamus McGrenera London

We Venezuelans must choose our own path | Letter

Regarding your report (Dictator ousted but regime intact – what next for Venezuela’s opposition?, 18 January), I spent the early hours of Saturday 3 January watching how my country was being bombed by the United States. While many Venezuelans hoped that Edmundo González Urrutia would be installed as the new president or that new elections would be called, those possibilities now feel further away than ever. As your report points out, Donald Trump has claimed that the US must first “rebuild” Venezuela, suggesting we are incapable of holding our own elections. We are left at a crossroads between two impossible sides: one who cannot even rebuild his own country, and another who has no intention of allowing a fair vote to happen. What my country needs is self-determination through clear and transparent elections. We do not need bombs, and we do not need contracts with the American oil industry. We must choose our own path. Only when the world values democracy more than oil will we finally be ourselves. Gabriel Moncada Belisario Barcelona, Venezuela • Have an opinion on anything you’ve read in the Guardian today? Please email us your letter and it will be considered for publication in our letters section.