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EU’s von der Leyen warns of ‘escalating campaign of threats’ as Romania destroys naval drone – Europe live

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen criticised “an escalating campaign of threats” against the European Union, as she responded to Romania’s decision to destroy a naval drone near its Neptun Deep platform in the Black Sea (12:33). “An escalating campaign of threats is underway, unsettling our citizens and seeking to divide our Union. This is hybrid warfare,” she said, without naming the aggressor. She continued: “The founding mission of our Union is to preserve peace. Today, that also means having the capacity to deter provocation and aggression. Our Readiness 2030 agenda is mobilising up to EUR 800 billion. With the European Drone Defence Initiative and the Eastern Flank Watch, we are scaling up production in Europe to deliver capabilities Member States need. So we can respond to emerging threats with speed, unity and resolve.”

Como mayor bans bikes in city centre after being hit ‘by one of these beasts’

The mayor of Como has set the wheels of controversy in motion for banning bikes in the walled historical centre of the lakeside city after being hit by one. Alessandro Rapinese’s ban, which comes into force in September, targets about 30 streets and means cyclists, whether on e-bikes or push bikes, will have to dismount and walk through those areas. Rapinese immediately came under fire, with resident groups and politicians from across the spectrum accusing him of waging a personal vendetta. Activists have started a petition calling for him to overturn the rule and cyclists are planning to ride their bikes through the specified streets in mid-September in protest. Defending his decision, Rapinese told Ansa: “I’ve been accused of adopting this measure because I was hit by an electric bike – certainly, that is true. People act based on their own experiences and I know what it’s like to be hit by one of these beasts.” The collision happened in June as Rapinese was leaving city hall, ironically just after his executive had met to discuss a measure restricting traffic in the centre. The culprit has not been revealed. Rapinese said the ban was necessary for public safety, especially in a place packed with tourists. The measure applies to all bikes because Italy’s highway code does not distinguish between e-bikes and traditional ones. Rented e-scooters were banned in Como’s city centre in 2022. Critics argue that some of the streets affected are the widest in the centre, offering a smooth route towards Lake Como, and that banning bikes excludes people from being able to use a low-cost, environmentally-friendly mode of transport. The measure will especially affect delivery riders and the shop owners depending on them for supplies. Some critics say the mayor should focus attention on cracking down on reckless behaviour rather than criminalising cyclists. Vincenzo Falanga, the president of Nova Como, a local civic group which has organised the bike protest, accused Rapinese’s administration of “turning individual problems into collective ones”. The Como branch of the centre-left Democratic party said: “Como deserves a mobility system that ensures pedestrian safety without penalising residents, workers and those who choose sustainable transport.” While expressing sympathy with Rapinese over the e-bike collision, Paolo Emilio Russo, a politician with the rightwing Forza Italia, said the ban was “crazy”. But Rapinese has refused to back-pedal. “In other cities, a child ends up in hospital and then the politicians take action,” he said. “Here, I didn’t even end up in hospital. I was hit by a bike, I gathered information and that’s where this measure came from.”

Without action wildfires in Europe will increase 39% even in best-case climate scenario, study finds

Wildfires are projected to burn 39% more of Europe by the end of the century even in the best-case scenario for stopping the planet from heating, a study has found, unless action is taken to manage them better. The increase in hot, dry and windy weather that leads to small fires turning into raging infernos is to engulf more of Europe as carbon pollution pushes temperatures higher. In the worst-case scenario the researchers modelled, which would see global heating reach 3.6C above preindustrial levels, the burnt area would almost triple. Improvements in fire management could moderate those increases by more than 70%, the study found, but not eradicate them entirely. “Investments into fire management could help to a certain limit, but if we go on a path of high emissions … we still see strong increases in burnt area,” said Maik Billing, an ecosystem researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and lead author of the study. “Fire management cannot replace climate mitigation.” The research comes as wildfires continue to ravage Europe, with large blazes hitting northern European countries such as the UK, Belgium and Germany after weeks in which France, Spain, Italy, Croatia and Greece battled monster infernos. Across the EU, this fire season is set to become the third-worst on record, behind 2025 and 2022, according to data published by the European Forest Fire Information Service on Thursday. More than 600,000 hectares have burned so far, with records broken for this time of year in Belgium, France and Slovakia. The researchers, who compared the projected annual burnt area in 2070-2100 with modelled results for the period 2000-2030, found the increase in fire weather was the biggest driver of change. In the optimistic scenario, in which global heating is capped at 1.8C, a little above the current level of 1.4C, some regions showed moderate increases in fire weather while others experienced little change. In the pessimistic scenario, however, with 3.6C of heating by the end of the century, the researchers found consistent worsening of fire weather across “virtually all of Europe”. Scientists expect current policies to result in about 2.6C of global heating by the end of the century. Using a second model, the researchers found that continued improvements in fighting fires could temper the effects of worsening fire weather, reducing burnt area by 92% in the cooler scenario compared with fixing firefighting efforts at today’s levels. The researchers used the Human Development Index as a proxy for firefighting ability, but acknowledged the rise of mega-fires made it hard to extrapolate from past experience. Improvements in fire suppression since the 1980s have reduced the number of fires and the area burnt in southern Europe, a study found earlier this month, but the enthusiastic suppression of fires, even small ones, has paradoxically increased the residual fuel load. This has allowed fires to develop to extreme levels when conditions are favourable, resulting in fewer, but more ferocious, fires. Such monster fires hit France and Spain in late July this year, forcing one-third of a million people from their homes as blazes raged with a force firefighters were unable to extinguish. Víctor Resco de Dios, a forestry engineer at the University of Lleida, who was not involved in the study, said the fire season was often accompanied by an “unproductive blame game” – isolating only one of the two key factors whose interaction results in wildfires – and that the study was a reminder to move beyond scapegoating. “The problem of wildfires wouldn’t be worsening if we were heading towards an ice age – instead of global warming,” he said. ”And it would have been largely mitigated if our landscapes were like they were a century ago, with a much smaller forest area.” • The Guardian’s climate forum 2026 – On Tuesday 20 October, join Damian Carrington, and our panel of experts – including Prof Andy Haines, Katie White MP, Asad Rehman, Shruti Suresh Gareth Thomas and Amy Fairman – for a hopeful and solutions-focused evening. Book tickets here or at guardian.live

More than 1,000 birds found dead in three mass mortality events amid ‘significant’ H5 escalation in Australia

The South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas, has declared a “significant escalation” in H5 bird flu in the state after the detection of three mass mortality events involving more than 1,000 greater crested terns. Malinauskas said the cause of the deaths was presumed to be H5 bird flu. State authorities were also investigating a suspected case in a little penguin found on Kangaroo Island, with the premier telling the state parliament the development was of “particular concern”. Separately, the Tasmanian government said it was investigating 28 little penguin deaths on King Island with testing under way to determine whether the birds died of H5 bird flu. Malinauskas said aerial surveillance on Wednesday detected the three mass mortality events in South Australia, all on offshore islands where H5 bird flu had been detected in recent weeks. He said more than 1,000 dead crested terns were found across Troubridge Island off the Yorke Peninsula and the Pages Islands – known as North Page and South Page – off Kangaroo Island. The deaths would represent the biggest detected mass casualty events from suspected H5 bird flu since the deadly strain arrived on the Australian mainland in June. Greater crested terns, a common Australian seabird, have been the most affected local species so far. The Pages Islands are a known breeding site for a colony of endangered Australian sea lions and long-nosed fur seals are known to visit the islands. Troubridge Island conservation park is an important breeding area for birds and home to a large colony of little penguins, as well as black cormorants and many crested terns. Malinauskas said the state’s aerial patrols, involving helicopters, planes and drones with support from field crews, were not limited to coastal sea birds. He said crews also looked for mammals, such as Australian sea lions or long-nosed fur seals, which might be affected by H5 bird flu. “Fortunately, so far, no mass mortality event … involving mammals has yet been detected or reported,” he said. He said there remained no detections in poultry or livestock. At a later media conference, the government said new cases in greater crested terns had also been detected in Flagstaff Hill, McLaren Vale, North Haven in the Adelaide area, Lucky Bay on the Eyre peninsula and Tanunda in the Barossa region. South Australia’s first confirmed case in a raven had also been detected at Port MacDonnell on the Limestone coast. Georgie Cornish, the executive director of biosecurity at the Department of Primary Industries and Regions, said the detection in the Barossa illustrates the “movement [of H5 bird flu] from [the] coast inwards”. Malinauskas said the state would continue to take “every practical and appropriate action available” to protect South Australia’s wildlife, industries and communities. He told the parliament that broad-scale vaccination of wild birds was “neither practical nor appropriate”, but said the state was considering “targeted vaccination of selected captive and managed populations of our most threatened native birds, where it is safe, feasible and likely to provide a conservation benefit”. The SA government said on Thursday it had been working with Zoos SA and Cleland wildlife park to prepare to vaccinate priority captive native species, with the vaccination of captive little penguins, orange-bellied parrots, red-tailed black cockatoos, cape barren geese and pelicans under consideration. The state government was also investigating potential opportunities to vaccinate high-priority at-risk mammals such as Australian sea lions at Seal Bay on Kangaroo Island. While there are no registered vaccines for treating H5 bird flu in mammals, the United States has undertaken experimental trials on a small number of seals. Late on Thursday, the New South Wales government also confirmed H5 bird flu in seven birds found at Narooma and Merimbula on the state’s south coast. Six of the birds were greater crested terns and one was a giant petrel. The state government said it was “progressing plans to vaccinate priority captive native species”, including regent honeyeaters and little penguins. In Tasmania, the state government said aerial surveillance on Wednesday spotted 28 dead little penguins and three dead crested terns at the Port of Grassy on King Island. The Department of Natural Resources and Environment said samples had been collected and sent for laboratory testing for H5 bird flu, with results expected “during the week”. “Tasmanians care deeply about our wildlife, and particularly our penguins, so we understand that reports like these may be distressing for the community,” a spokesperson said. They said staff planned to collect the dead birds on Thursday to reduce the risk of transmission.

Thursday briefing: The million young people the UK is leaving behind

Good morning. Thousands of young people will be arriving at school in the next few hours to collect their GCSE results. Many will continue to sixth form, others will be heading to apprenticeships, and some will spend the next few years relentlessly pitching their CVs to AI bots. An estimated one million young people in the UK aged 16 to 24 are not in education, employment or training of any kind. These “Neets”, as they’re known, have preoccupied policymakers since the early 1990s. But their number is now higher than ever, an indication of economic inactivity, low growth and rising welfare costs that worry civil servants in Whitehall. Alan Milburn, formerly health secretary under Tony Blair’s government, is now conducting a high-profile review of Neets. His final report is expected later this year. The Neet issue exemplifies how an increasingly unhappy, isolated generation of young people are becoming detached from social institutions and losing faith in their own futures. For today’s First Edition, I spoke to psychologist Marc Mon-Williams who leads a study following the lives and development of 13,500 children in Bradford, about what’s going wrong for Britain’s youth. That’s after the headlines. Five big stories UK politics | Richard Tice should apologise to firefighters for his comments this week urging British people to “enjoy” this summer’s extreme heat, according to the Labour party chair. West Sussex | A father who died alongside a woman and teenage girl off the coast of Shoreham-by-Sea was a Palestinian refugee, the Palestinian embassy has confirmed. Energy | Household energy bills across Great Britain are expected to climb to a three-year high this winter, with the Middle East war wiping out Andy Burnham’s tax cut on electricity bills. Ukraine | A heavy Russian bombardment killed at least six people and wounded dozens in Ukraine’s capital and its surrounding region overnight, authorities said on Thursday. Gaza| The Israeli military admitted on Wednesday its troops had opened fire on a car carrying five-year-old Hind Rajab and six family members in Gaza in 2024, saying it had ordered a criminal investigation into the killing. In depth: A generation falling through the cracks First, a brief note on language: nobody ever calls themselves a “Neet”. In May, Milburn published his interim report, which found that the UK has the second-highest rate of Neets in Europe, after Romania. An accompanying paper, Inside the Mind of a Young Neet, featured snippets from conversations with more than 400 young people who were out of work and education. Its authors heard from a 22-year-old who was competing in archery contests, a gardening fanatic who had taught themselves how to make raised beds, and an aspiring linguist who could read Latin and crochet flower baskets. These are skilled young people with huge potential and meaningful lives. The problem lies in a system that is failing them. Broadly, there are two explanations for why so many young people today aren’t in work or education. The first is the labour market. Businesses have argued that rising national insurance contributions are deterring firms from hiring young workers, while others have speculated that AI is destroying entry-level jobs. The second, more troubling explanation, is the striking number of young people who are unwell or have poor mental health. The proportion of 18 to 24-year-olds with a long-term, limiting health condition has increased by 42% since 2019, while the number of 20 to 24-year-olds prescribed antidepressants increased by almost a third between 2015 and 2021. Britain now has the highest rate of anxiety and depressive disorders among 15 to 24-year-olds in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. “We often talk about the relationship between the labour market and poor health as being ‘bi-directional’,” Mon-Williams explains. People who are out of work are more likely to feel anxious or depressed, he says, while past experiences of anxiety or depression can become a barrier to entering the workforce. “Both come into play, which is why it’s so complex.” What emerges from these figures is a picture of generational misery. As Mon-Williams puts it: “I really think we need to take a step back, take a good hard look at ourselves as a country, and ask : what on earth have we allowed to happen?” *** Why are young people so unhappy? There’s a tendency (particularly among ageing right-wing commentators who depend on young people paying taxes that fund the NHS and state pensions) to blame these rates of ill-health on a culture of over-diagnosis among self-indulgent “snowflakes”. The Born in Bradford study refutes this myth. Mon-Williams and other researchers have access to the health records of 13,500 young people born in 2007, from pregnancy through to the present day, as well as data about their mental health. Many participants suffering from mental ill health struggle to get any support. “The evidence shows that there’s a genuine mental health epidemic among that generation,” he says. “These are warning signs. Pity the country that doesn’t take them seriously.” Nor are Neets work-shy, or choosing to live off benefits rather than find a job. Most want to be in work or education. About 314,000 of them are not receiving any benefits at all, and have effectively disappeared from the system. As Milburn put it in his interim report, caricatures of a generation uninterested in employment or using mental health as an excuse “are myths. Sometimes cruel ones.” Researchers have identified multiple reasons for growing rates of mental ill-health among young people, including financial precarity, housing insecurity, drastic cuts to youth clubs and youth workers, rising social media use and broken sleep (while compiling his interim report, a group of teenagers told Milburn they went to bed between midnight and three each night because they were scrolling on their phones). The disciplinary, top-button-obsessed culture of many academy schools can also contribute to these problems by excluding children with complex needs or neurodivergence, making it more likely they become a Neet later. “When you exclude a child, you’re consigning them to the probability of having a rubbish life,” Mon-Williams tells me. *** Has the pandemic made this worse? The pandemic aggravated an ongoing mental health crisis, cutting many young people off from school and severing their friendships and social bonds. In his Born in Bradford data, Mon-Williams found a striking increase in the number of children who were absent from school after Covid. “Pre-pandemic, in Bradford, we had 3,000 children who were persistently absent,” he says. “Post-pandemic, that went up to 30,000. That’s a hugely worrying statistic.” Many young people missed out on opportunities to learn both academically and socially. “I lost the social aspect of connecting with people … maintaining eye contact, hand gestures and all sorts,” one young person told the Inside the Mind of a Neet researchers. For some, patterns cultivated in lockdown – long nights spent online, disrupted sleep patterns, minimal social contact and eroded routines – morphed into a semi-permanent stasis. *** What needs to change? Milburn’s interim findings acknowledges that there needs to be a “system reset”. There’s also been a lot of chatter in Westminster about “hard hats” and vocational training, which is an improvement on the status quo (Britain has far fewer young people on vocational courses than Germany or the Netherlands). Mon-Williams argues that we should be thinking about preventing someone from becoming a Neet right from the start of their life. That would mean ensuring that pregnant mothers have enough support, that families can access Sure-Start centres, that young people arrive at school ready to learn, and that teenagers leave with a clear plan, a sense of confidence and direction, and some work experience on their CV. “I’m glad that we’re starting to wake up,” he said. “It breaks my heart, this stuff. But as a society, we could change it.” What else we’ve been enjoying Who is Natalie Harp? David Smith gave a fascinating insight into the “human printer” who has become one of Trump’s closest aides. Hettie Alexander Hurst’s piece on how flag culture wars have come to Iceland offers a window on how one progressive government has endeavoured to resolve them. Libby I enjoyed Jim Waterson’s piece in the Financial Times (£) about his years-long investigation into the weird world of tax-dodging American Candy shops. Hettie I’m a big fan of Scottish photographer Wendy McMurdo and these latest images from a new exhibition of how tech is changing play do not disappoint. Libby I’ve been feeling increasingly cross at reports of dinosaur skeletons selling to the highest private bidder. Science Weekly asks why fossils have become big business and what it means for research. Libby Sport Cricket | Josh Tongue (5-46) and Ollie Robinson (5-51) dismissed Pakistan for 171 and Joe Root and Jordan Cox added an unbeaten 64 to put England only 59 runs behind. Football | Richard Masters has sought to reassure fans that the Premier League remains “everything that it should be” after the Folarin Balogun red-card scandal called the integrity of disciplinary decisions into question. Tennis | Teenage ace Rafael Jódar loses narrowly in fourth round of the Cincinnati Open yet the buzz around him will only get louder. The front pages “Working in Starmer’s No 10 was unbearable, says ex-chief of staff”, is the Guardian’s splash today. The top story in the Times is “Vaccine for skin cancer helps fight off disease” and similarly for the i Paper which says “New skin vaccine can stop disease and offers hope for era of personalised jabs”. The FT’s take is “Moderna shares double after success for custom-made skin cancer vaccine”. Metro leads on “Refugee family who drowned in seaside tragedy”, while the Mirror writes “Day trip tragedy”. The Mail has “Ministers forced to tell asylum seekers: Don’t rape women”, and the Express says “Don’t rape or beat up women when in Britain”. Lastly, the Telegraph leads on “Harry’s coming home”, a report also carried by the Sun, which says “Harry & Meg coming home”. The Latest Will Andy Burnham get rough sleepers off streets by Christmas? The prime minister has announced a £442m plan to get rough sleepers off the streets by Christmas. It solidifies tackling homelessness as a central policy for Andy Burnham’s government, and gives voters a measure by which to judge his success – although without a concrete target for ministers to hit. Nosheen Iqbal speaks to social policy editor Patrick Butler. Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad The Outdoor Access Trust for Scotland is a vital environmental charity promoting and preserving sustainable public access to the great outdoors. With essential funding limited, volunteers are at the heart of their work, rolling up their sleeves in some of the country’s most breathtaking spots of natural beauty to build and repair footpaths, infrastructure and habitats. Writer Mike MacEacheran recently joined them on one of their regular events and found a “joyful shared experience” that proves as good for the soul as it does the natural world. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Oxfam ‘can’t guarantee future’ of charity shops as it also reviews warehouse business

Oxfam is reviewing the operations of its three warehouses in Batley, Bicester and Milton Keynes and says it “cannot give guarantees” on the future of its high street shops in a “difficult economic climate”. The charity said it had no plans to close warehouses or shops but insiders fear that Batley, which houses Oxfam’s main textile recycling centre, will shut as part of a cost-cutting drive because the West Yorkshire site’s lease is up for renewal. All three warehouses together employ about 90 people. A source said Oxfam was considering closing up to 100 of its 500-plus UK outlets as sales at some were no longer viable. “Donations have dropped off,” the insider said, adding that the charity’s shops were also facing competition from online sellers of secondhand goods such as Vinted. “Oxfam is always more expensive, and that’s starting to have an effect,” the source said. Oxfam Activities is the charity’s arm that aims to raise money through its trade in new items for sale in shops, its textile recycling plant in Batley and the provision of stewards for festivals. However, it made losses of more than £2m in the year to March 2025 and in the prior year. Sales fell by 7% in the year to March 2025, driven by a slump in income from recycling. This division of the business does not include direct income from the stores. Lorna Fallon, chief supporter officer of Oxfam GB, said: “In [the last financial year], Oxfam GB’s shops, warehouses and online retail teams generated a £6.3m (net) contribution to our humanitarian work, as well as raising dedicated funds through emergency appeals to support crises in Venezuela, the Middle East and Ukraine. “As is standard practice, we keep all parts of our retail operations under review via regular meetings. While we cannot give guarantees in this difficult economic climate, we are confident in and positive about our current retail performance and do not have plans to close our shops or warehouses at this time.” Fallon said Oxfam had launched a new online rental service recently and had brought fulfilment of online orders back in-house, as well as opening a second superstore, in Manchester. “Next month our shops, warehouses and digital hubs will be leading Second Hand September, our annual campaign to tackle fashion’s environmental damage while raising funds for our global work on poverty and climate change,” she said. The review of Oxfam’s operations comes after job cuts and store closures at charities including the British Heart Foundation (BHF) and Cancer Research. The BHF closed 150 shops and cut jobs earlier this summer. It blamed rising costs and the shift to online shopping had made about a quarter of its high street locations commercially unsustainable. Cancer Research announced in October it would be closing 90 shops across the UK. Charities selling secondhand clothing have also faced increased competition for customers and donations from online sellers such as eBay and Vinted, while the price of “rag” – damaged or unwanted clothing and home textiles for recycling, which was once a key source of income – has fallen in recent years.

Trump threatens Iran’s trade partners, as military strikes make way for economic pressure

Donald Trump has announced a new campaign to isolate Iran’s economy, threatening “tremendous economic consequences” on any country that helps or does business with Tehran, a move that could set up a fresh confrontation with China if implemented. “Today, I am announcing the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Any country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face tremendous economic consequences.” His announcement however contained no detail on what actions would be taken or which countries could be affected, and comes as the war nears its six-month mark, with the president facing pressure over the cost of the conflict as the US midterm elections approach. Last month the US president paused attacks on Iran, after a fortnight of nightly strikes that had failed to bring officials in Tehran back to the negotiating table and reports that the war has run down US stockpiles of key munitions. Pentagon advisers reportedly told Trump last month that the US had nearly exhausted its list of targets in Iran and the military campaign had reached the limits of its effectiveness. The White House has signalled in recent weeks a shift in strategy to tightening pressure on Iran economically. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said last week the US would begin ramping up efforts to isolating Iran economically. The US treasury has for months been carrying out an effort, called Operation Economic Fury, aiming to cut off Iran’s funding with targeted sanctions, while a naval blockade in the strait of Hormuz has sought to block Iranian ports from exporting oil vital to keeping the country’s economy afloat. Iran’s economy already faces a punishing array of US and western sanctions that have ground down the economy over years and curtailed its ability to sell oil. But experts say the country’s leaders have learned to adapt to the measures, including by exporting oil through a sophisticated network of shadow tankers. In his announcement on Wednesday, Trump listed several activities that he said needed to stop immediately, including “oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies”. The wording of the president’s announcement suggested that he could be threatening secondary sanctions on countries that buy Iranian oil, but experts say such a move could lead to direct confrontation with China – Iran’s biggest trading partner – at a time when the US is trying to establish a new trading relationship with Beijing. “Whatever new economic measures the US can use will need to be directed at Iran’s trading partners,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at theEurasia Group, adding that it will be “hard for the US to direct such actions at China, the country that matters most to Iran’s economic future.” Chinese leader Xi Jinping is also expected to visit the US next month, further complicating any efforts to target Beijing’s imports of Iranian oil. Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on Tuesday that military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran’s resolve. He added that Iran remained open to dialogue ⁠with the US, but would not confuse negotiations with surrender, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates, announced it would suspend all trade activities, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran, after it said it had detected two missiles launched from the country. Tehran dismissed the reports as baseless. Prior to the war, the UAE was one of Iran’s biggest trade partners, providing more than 30% of its imports. Earlier on Wednesday, Trump also claimed that vessels from Gulf countries allied with the US were continuing to move through the strait of Hormuz, despite the Iranian threat to shipping in the waterway. The president said the US military was aiding ships in the strait, saying “right now, a lot of boats are coming through.” Axios reported that US forces were facilitating the transit of 15 to 20 ships in and out of the Hormuz each night in recent weeks – carrying “roughly half the prewar volume” of daily oil shipments – while also continuing to blockade Iranian exports. Those volumes were disputed by some, with ship tracking data ‌from Kpler showing transits remained low. Referring to the Axios report, Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence, said it was an important operational development, but questioned how long the US government would be able to sustain such an operation. “More importantly, this will not force Iran to surrender or fundamentally change its negotiating position,” said Citrinowicz.