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Hundreds of thousands expected at school protests across France – Europe live

Back to France, the protests are gathering pace, with the students union claiming that 1,800 high schools are disrupted today, on their “day of mobilisation” as trade unions and parents joined students outside schools. Around 200,000 are provisionally expected to join today’s demonstrations, BFM TV reported. Early protests are now under way in Marseille… … in Strasbourg… … Lyon … and in and near Paris… French media are reporting the first signs of tension in Paris and Lyon, though the vast majority of protests across the country remain largely peaceful so far.

Israeli ambassador to Australia says he hopes for return to ‘traditional friendship’ on October 7 anniversary eve

Israel’s ambassador to Australia says the third anniversary of October 7 is an opportunity for both countries to return to “traditional friendship”. But, in the lead-up to commemorations on Wednesday marking Hamas’ terror attack, leaders of Australia’s Palestinian community say the federal government should do more to help the diaspora suffering since the war on Gaza. Speaking ahead of the anniversary, Hillel Newman acknowledged relations had become “strained” between Australia and Israel but wanted to see improvement. “We have challenges, but I have come with a lot of goodwill in order to try and make a positive change in the relationship, perhaps even reset the relationship and return both sides to the initial historical traditional friendship,” the Israeli ambassador told Guardian Australia. “There have been issues between our two countries. We can have differences of opinion, but we should not allow differences of opinion to overshadow and overcrowd the overall relationship. We can understand if Australia has criticism of this issue or another.” Sign up for Guardian Australia’s Politics, really newsletter here The comments come despite Israel’s foreign ministry publicly criticising foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, on social media in recent weeks, branding comments she made to the United Nations about settler violence in the West Bank a “blatant lie”. It follows an earlier intervention into domestic Australian politics, where Israel urged Labor to soften criticism in a draft policy platform that condemned settler violence and a controversial death penalty law. Since the 2023 attack – in which Hamas militants killed about 1,200 Israelis and 250 people were taken hostage, in what is considered the single deadliest day for Jewish people since the Holocaust – there has been a near breakdown in ties between the Israeli government and federal Labor. Israel’s response to the attack and bombardment of Gaza has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians. Australia has joined other countries in taking an increasingly stronger stance against Israel, including action alongside the UK, Canada and New Zealand to sanction Israeli politicians Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, accusing the two of inciting violence against Palestinians. But the federal government last month stopped short of joining the UK and other partners in imposing a ban on goods from illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank. Relations deteriorated further when Australian aid worker Zomi Frankcom was killed in a humanitarian convoy struck by Israeli drones in April 2024. Albanese and Wong slammed a decision by the Israel Defense Forces in August not to pursue criminal proceedings over Frankcom’s death. Pressed on Israel’s failure to release audio from the strike, Newman stressed it was an issue for the Israeli military, but that his country remained open to any request for potential reparations for Frankcom’s family and remained in favour of continued discussions. Wong has been working with the Frankcom family on an appropriate response to the decision not to press criminal charges. She said in a statement that the Australian government had condemned the Israeli government’s decision not to pursue criminal proceedings against those responsible for killing Frankcom and her World Central Kitchen colleagues. “The Australian government will not stop pressing Israel for justice for Zomi and her colleagues. We continue to engage closely with the Frankcom family on further action,” Wong said. “7 October is a day of profound grief and remembrance. We mourn those who were killed in the Hamas terrorist attacks, including Australian Galit Carbone, and all those who have suffered from antisemitic violence around the world.” The Australia Palestine Advocacy Network president, Nasser Mashni, said the impact from three years’ of war was measured in two places at once: Gaza and in the diaspora. “In Australia, the impact is a quieter but a relentless erosion of our place in this country,” he said. “Underpinning every discussion that happens about ‘us’, but without ‘us’, is a nagging suggestion that we don’t belong, that we must prove we are Australian, and even human. “This is the domestic footprint of genocide: protesting a demand for its end, and stopping Australia’s complicity in it, is more controversial than supporting it.” In 2025, a UN commission found that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, citing tens of thousands of civilian deaths and massive destruction. Israel strongly denies accusations of genocide. The Greens leader, David Shoebridge, said Australians would reflect on the devastating toll of violence. “The attacks on October 7 were condemned by the Greens at the time, as our party has a deep belief in peace and non-violence,” he said. “It is that same core value that means we condemn the ongoing genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.” The cooler relations between Israel and Australia come against a backdrop of antisemitic attacks in Australia, as the nation prepares to face the first anniversary of the Bondi massacre on 14 December. Fifteen people were killed in an antisemitic terror attack on a Hanukkah celebration. A royal commission sparked by the Bondi attack is due to release its final report on 18 December. The Executive Council of Australian Jewry co-chief executive Alex Ryvchin said the October 7 attack and the “unsatisfactory responses” to it meant “troubled, uncertain times lie ahead for us all”. “But if the jihadists thought mass terror at home and abroad would bring about some global capitulation by Israel and Jewish communities or that the majority of Australians would turn on their Jewish friends and neighbours, they have failed dismally,” he said. The shadow defence minister, James Paterson, said the October 7 attack had changed Australia in “terrible ways” and culminated in the Bondi attack. “Fixing this societal cancer will take years of sustained effort from the entire community, from the prime minister down,” he said.

Keeping up with the Bolsonaros: Flávio’s surprise first-round election win heralds rise of a political dynasty

The weekend’s elections in Brazil not only put Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, Flávio Bolsonaro, in the lead in the presidential race, but also underscored how far the former president has come in building a political dynasty. As his far-right senator son heads into a runoff against the leftist incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a sweeping far-right victory in congressional races also secured seats for Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, two of his sons and one of his brothers. Few in the family have spent much time working outside politics since the patriarch led the way four decades ago, but the offices they now hold have had a significant upgrade. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, 44, who divided her campaign with caring for her husband as he serves a sentence under house arrest for attempting a coup, ran for public office for the first time and was elected senator. Bolsonaro’s second son, Carlos Bolsonaro, 43, regarded as the most radical of the siblings – he ran his father’s social media accounts and was indicted by federal police for leading a so-called hate cabinet that spread fake news and attacks on opponents – was also elected senator for the first time. His previous political career amounted to 25 years as a city councillor in Rio de Janeiro – starting at the age of 17, when his father put him up for a seat against his own mother, Rogéria Bolsonaro, who had divorced Jair. Carlos won. (Rogéria also ran last Sunday for a seat in the state legislature, still using the Bolsonaro surname, but lost.) The patriarch’s fourth son, Jair Renan Valle Bolsonaro, 28, who dropped his two middle names on the ballot to run simply as Jair Bolsonaro, jumped from city councillor to federal congressman. Of Bolsonaro’s five children, only his 15-year-old daughter has never held political office. Even the former president’s younger brother, Renato Bolsonaro, 62, nicknamed the “brother who can’t win” after losing seven consecutive elections for lower-level offices, was elected. He went from fewer than 10,000 votes in a mayoral race two years ago to 380,000 votes for congress. During the campaign, Renato caused some friction within the family by saying that “Flávio is not Jair. He doesn’t draw crowds”. At the polls, however, Flávio ended up winning more votes than his father did in 2018 and 2022, although the result is seen by some as more of an anti-Lula vote than a strong preference for the senator. The number of Bolsonaros in office could have been even higher had “son 03”, Eduardo Bolsonaro, 42, not abandoned his seat in congress and gone into self-imposed exile in the US, where for more than a year he has lobbied for what Lula and many others see as Donald Trump’s attempts to interfere in Brazil’s elections. Although Michelle is the most recent member of the family to enter politics, it is she who is often considered to be the leading figure among the Bolsonaros. In a July poll, she was named the most powerful woman in Brazilian politics, well ahead of the current first lady, Janja Lula da Silva, in addition to a supreme court justice and many members of congress. “She is a phenomenon,” said Camila Rocha, a researcher at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning, who has interviewed voters and studied the Brazilian right for a decade. “Even Bolsonaro voters don’t like his sons very much, but many of them like Michelle, who is very charismatic.” The daughter of a housewife and a retired bus driver from the metropolitan region around Brasília, Michelle was working as a parliamentary secretary for another politician when, at 25, she met Bolsonaro, then a 52-year-old congressman. She is his third wife. When he took office as president in 2019, Michelle made history by becoming the first and only Brazilian first lady to deliver a speech at an inauguration. She did so in Brazilian Sign Language, which she had mastered while working as an interpreter at evangelical church services – her religiosity is seen as one of the main assets behind Bolsonaro’s close relationship with evangelical voters. Despite playing by Bolsonaro’s party’s rules, Michelle was at the centre of one of the most contentious moments of Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, when she said that she had been “humiliated”, “disrespected” and “mistreated” by the senator. Reports of friction between her and her stepsons are frequent. Given her popularity, Flávio had to apologise publicly – although Michelle accepted it, the two did not campaign together. Polls suggested Bolsonaro supporters would have preferred the former first lady as the presidential candidate, but the patriarch opted for his eldest son, and gave her the senate mission instead. “That was the mission my husband entrusted to me, and I will represent him, God willing,” she said in August. Michelle and Bolsonaro’s sons were also widely seen as helping secure victories for other far-right candidates from Bolsonaro’s party, which will have by far the largest bloc in the next congress. “Although the family has been in politics for a long time, many voters still see the Bolsonaros as representing ‘renewal’ and an anti-system vote,” said Rocha. “So, to change everything, these voters want to throw a ‘bomb’ that blows up congress and Lula. And that bomb is the Bolsonaro family,” she added.

Tuesday briefing: Why the Green party’s Zionism vote has caused a backlash

Good morning. The Green party of England and Wales is in turmoil. Following a vote to adopt a policy that equates Zionism with racism, and calls for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state “with equal rights for all”, some Jewish members say they are considering whether they are welcome in the party. While Green members celebrated, or mourned, the motion passing, some have questioned its purpose, arguing it will distract from what’s important – keeping eyes on Gaza and holding the Israeli government to account – instead igniting a divisive discussion about ideology that will only harm the party. Today, I spoke to Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland, to understand how the vote has been received by many Jewish people beyond the Greens, and senior political correspondent Peter Walker, who reported on the fallout of the vote at the party conference in Brighton at the weekend. That’s after the headlines … Five big stories RAF Fairford | No 10 has insisted the Gloucestershire base is secure a day after the US air force suddenly withdrew a dozen B-1 bombers that had been stationed there amid security concerns about a possible threat from Iran. Donald Trump | Donald Trump’s approval ratings reached a record low on Monday, according to new opinion polls. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump’s approval rating at a record-low 32%. Brazilian elections | Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, is poised to win the Brazilian presidency, after a shock first-round victory. Jeffrey Archer | Jeffrey Archer, the bestselling author and former MP whose political career ended in disgrace when he was imprisoned for perjury, has died at the age of 86. Cancer | Cases of seven types of cancer have risen sharply among younger people in England, major new research has found, prompting warnings that lifestyle choices are costing thousands of lives each year. In depth: Why the Greens are divided over Zionism Yesterday, the head of the Jewish Greens Vivien Lichtenstein confirmed that she is considering leaving the party after Sunday’s vote. Many other Jewish Greens – a significant majority of whom described themselves as anti-Zionists when polled – are similarly taking stock. Much of the fallout was predictable. The chief rabbi, Ephraim Mirvis, described the motion as “poisonous antisemitism” and Israel immediately barred Zack Polanski, the Green party’s Jewish leader, from entering the country. The Israeli foreign ministry denounced the motion as “a stain on the history of the United Kingdom”. With four of the Green’s five MPs opposing the new policy, yesterday evening the group representing European Green parties expressed dismay at the move which runs counter to their support for a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. There is now growing anger internally with Polanski, who avoided the debate to campaign in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, where he is running for former prime minister Keir Starmer’s seat. *** What is the motion about – and who supports it? Zionism isn’t a clearly defined, singular ideology. Broadly speaking, it means support for Jewish self-determination, realised today in the state of Israel. The motion argues that Zionism is racist because it “privileges one ethnic group on the basis of the subjugation of others” and that in Israel this is based upon “European settler-colonial systems of domination and oppression”. It adds: “This motion is aimed at the political ideology and practice of Zionism … and not at the religious or ethnic background of those who may identify as Zionists”. Prior to this, senior Greens have been some of the most vehement voices in the UK in condemning Israel’s destruction of Gaza, which a UN commission of inquiry found to be a genocide. They have also spoken out against the ongoing occupation of the West Bank, as well as pushing for a full arms and trade embargo. The motion was put forward by Greens for Palestine, an internal pressure group that calls for the creation of a single Palestinian state, in which Jews and Palestinians can freely live. There is clearly broad support for this general principle – the motion passed by 1,022 votes to 813. One of the sponsors, Kieran Andrieu, a British Palestinian, described it as a “unifying motion”, arguing there was “enormous virtue” in naming what he said was a “damaging ideology”. During the debate, he added, “everyone was agreeing that we need to disagree agreeably”. The vote happened behind closed doors, but longstanding Green supporters have shared with Peter their concerns that the motion was being pushed by relatively new members. Greens for Palestine have been very open about encouraging people to join the party to support this single issue. *** The reaction A legal case against the new policy is highly likely – some Green members are already consulting lawyers over whether the party could be challenged for breaching equalities legislation. Barrister Adam Wagner KC, who led a case that decided Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party broke equalities laws over antisemitism, told Peter he believed such a case would have a good chance of success. There is huge frustration, particularly from longer established members, at what they consider a lack of leadership from Polanski. First, in trying to cancel the conference to free up his supporters to campaign for him, and second for missing the debate on a hugely divisive matter. Other senior party figures, such as the former co-leader Carla Denyer, have voiced concern that the motion draws attention away from what’s important. “I’m concerned that elected Greens will be forced to spend our time and energy debating and defending definitions, at the expense of focusing on the essential actions that only we can take to make things materially better for people in Palestine,” Denyer said in a statement on X. Polanski has said he agrees that Zionism, when defined as “the displacement and genocide of the Palestinian people”, does “clearly” constitute racism. Critics say he could have supported what was regarded as a “safeguarding” amendment, which offered reassurance that members would not be disciplined for their membership of Jewish organisations with Zionist affiliations, even synagogues – as the amendment did not garner enough support to pass. This is a now a “genuine fear” among some Jewish members, Peter tells me. Greens for Palestine have consistently stated this was not its intention, emphasising that the policy refers to Zionism as a political ideology, supporting the state of Israel which they believe relies on apartheid and racism to uphold a majority Jewish population. “But as the Jewish Greens pointed out, Zionism can mean so many different things,” said Peter. A Palestinian in the West Bank or Gaza, a left-leaning kibbutznick and a Netanyahu supporter will each have different interpretations. “Many now worry that this enshrines a definition of Zionism that only reflects an extreme, right wing version of it.” *** What is Zionism, and who identifies with it? “To brand everyone under that one umbrella as a racist shows a deep ignorance of what the word Zionism means and the sheer range of people who identify with it,” is the point Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland made ahead of the Green conference vote. When we spoke yesterday, he told me that the motion’s success marked “a shift in the Overton window” that has left many people well beyond Green party activists alarmed: “A mainstream political party has adopted a position, which functionally identifies most British Jews as racists,” he suggests. Jonathan references the celebrated Israeli writer and peace activist Amos Oz, who described Zionism as a ‘family name’. “‘Zionist’ alone doesn’t tell you much. You need to have a first name to make sense of it: whether that’s socialist Zionism, Marxist-Zionism, religious Zionism or cultural Zionism,” he says. There are non-Zionist and anti-Zionist Jews, too. Many of those Jewish activists defending Palestinians from settler violence on the West Bank, he explains, would describe themselves as Zionists – just as extremist settlers would. For many British Jews – nearly two-thirds of whom identify as Zionist according to a report by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research published on Monday – this is not about support for Israeli government policy, current or past. “For many Jews, when you use the term Zionism rather than Israel, you’re in the realm of a dream or an aspiration; one that is a constitutive part of the Jewish identity,” he says. It’s an outlook informed by generations of persecution, which is one reason why the comparison to ‘settler-colonialism’ that the Green motion makes is anathema to so many, he adds. The mood is also reflected in the research, which also found British Jews have become more likely to identify as Zionist, consider emigrating to Israel, or feel a close attachment to the country since the 7 October attacks. Meanwhile, younger Jewish people, aged sixteen- to 29-year-olds were less likely to say Israel was “very important” to their identity, with the percentage falling by one point – to 27% – in 2024. This aligns with some Jewish commentators who argue there is a generational shift in the Jewish diaspora, with those younger people appalled by Israel’s actions in Gaza identifying less as Zionist than their parents’ generation. *** What could it mean for the Greens? Most close observers believe that the Zionism motion is unlikely to make a difference to the outcome of Thursday’s byelection: Labour are very confident of transforming Starmer’s base and Burnham’s bounce into a win, while Polanksi himself has rolled the pitch in advance, saying it’s a 50/50 outcome that won’t impact his authority as leader. The longer term problem for the party, Peter argues, is that this one policy dispute overshadows all others, and might even cap Green support at a point when the party was on the cusp of an electoral breakthrough. “On Sunday, after the Zionism vote, they announced a series of key economic policies that no one paid any attention to. This is all they’re going to be able to talk about, maybe up to the next election, and voters don’t like parties that look like they are mired in chaos,” he says. What else we’ve been enjoying Here’s a stunning story about Abdiqadir Salah, a seven-year-old Somali boy who was severely injured in a US drone strike at the centre of a Guardian investigation – and the Guardian readers who funded his life-changing surgery. Charlie Lindlar, newsletters team I love cheese, and I love Giuseppe Nucci’s photo essay about the rebel cheesemakers in Italy’s Orobie Alps who, at significant human cost, are keeping a tradition alive at a time when agricultural industrialisation and the climate crisis threatens its survival. Craille Maguire Gillies, newsletters team In this beautiful piece, Katharine Gammon profiles some of the many animals, from cougars to lizards, that call the Hollywood sign home. Charlie Anyone interested in the energised Celtic alliance ought to check out a piece about another place putting sovereignty on the political table (again). Caitlin Walsh Miller’s profile for the Walrus about Quebec’s “géneration oui”, the young campaigners waving the separatist flag in Canada, is a fascinating look at a culture and generation at an inflection point. Craille Tom Cruise and Alejandro G Iñárritu’s Digger is on its way to becoming a $150m box office bomb – but could it be a “misunderstood masterpiece”? Sian Cain makes the case. Charlie Sport Tennis | Daniil Medvedev was disqualified from his China Open semi-final with Novak Djokovic on Monday after hitting a rebounding ball into the crowd that struck a spectator in the eye. Cricket | The International Cricket Council (ICC) will not introduce a World Club Championship or more international multilateral tournaments until 2031 at the earliest because of resistance from England, Australia and India. Football | Michael Olise came off the bench to inspire France to a 4-1 win over Belgium in the Nations League, handing Zinedine Zidane his first home victory since taking charge. The front pages “Sharp rise in under-50s cancers a ticking timebomb, say experts” is the lead story on the Guardian on Tuesday. “Kemi: Britain needs an ‘iron dome’ to keep us safe,” says the Express, while the i paper has “Badenoch promises ‘Britannia Dome’ to protect the UK from missile attack.” Meanwhile, the Star has: “The Iron Lady.” “King tells Andrew: I won’t fund court fight,” is the splash over at the Telegraph. “King: Don’t use my money,” has the Mirror. The top story at the Times is “PM looks to push back decision on defence cash,” while the FT runs with: “Sainsbury’s held talks with Morrisons on forging new industry powerhouse.” Finally, the Metro with: “Predators stalking our unis.” Today in Focus: The Latest Why did the US rush to withdraw bombers from UK airbase? The US withdrew its bombers from RAF Fairford after an investigation into an alleged planned terrorist attack on the base. At least 10 B-1 bombers used by the US military in the Iran conflict flew out of Fairford on Sunday, suggesting US officials were taking the threat seriously. Lucy Hough speaks to Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian’s defence and security editor. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Our Filter team asked Guardian readers to share the everyday products that have improved their lives. Popular recommendations included linen sheets for better sleep, especially during menopause. Other practical favourites included wrist wraps for weightlifting, and changing robes for all-weather walks. Gardeners recommended shredders for turning garden waste into useful mulch. In the kitchen, readers highlighted Danish dough whisks, egg cookers, and Jennie loved her jar-opening key: “No more RSI. Every home should have one.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Japan PM leads outcry after US Marine arrested over alleged killing of woman on Okinawa

Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has led public outcry over crimes committed by US servicemen after a marine suspected of killing a woman on Okinawa was arrested on Saturday. In a speech in parliament, Takaichi described the alleged crime as “heinous” and urged US military authorities to enforce discipline among American servicemen stationed on Okinawa, an island 1,000 miles south of Tokyo. Crimes and accidents involving US troops on Okinawa have been a constant source of tension between Tokyo and Washington and the target of protests among local people. The island hosts most of the 50,000 US troops in Japan and 70% of the country’s military facilities there. Police said Devin Ballard, a 20-year-old lance corporal, had been arrested on suspicion of strangling Anna Yagi, 39, at a hotel in Okinawan capital Naha early on Saturday. He is also suspected of stealing her wallet and backpack. Ballard denied the allegations, police said. If convicted, Ballard could face life in prison or the death penalty. His arrest triggered anger in Okinawa days after voters elected Genta Koja, a pro-US base governor backed by Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic party, ending the eight-year-tenure of Denny Tamaki, a critic of the US military presence on the island. Koja’s election had raised hopes that the US and Japan might finally make progress on the planned transfer of a marine corps base from a densely populated city to a remote off-shore location. The relocation of Futenma air station, where Ballard is stationed, has been held up for decades amid opposition from people living near the alternative site and local politicians who want US military facilities moved off the island altogether. Koja said the arrest had dealt a “major shock” to the island and “raises fears among Okinawans who have already been forced to live next to US bases”. He added: “It is absolutely unforgivable, and we are outraged.” He said the case proved that US attempts to improve discipline among its troops had failed. “I’m enraged by the loss of a precious life of an Okinawan resident,” he told Lt Gen Benjamin Watson, commander of III Marine Expeditionary Force, and the US consul general in Naha, Andrew Ou, after Ballard’s arrest. Watson said he recognised that the incident had caused “significant concern and anxiety among the residents of Okinawa, our neighbours”. He added: “We are committed to being good neighbours … and earning the trust of the Okinawan people.” Anti-US sentiment on Okinawa intensified after the 1995 rape of a 12-year-old girl by three American servicemen. A year later, Tokyo and Washington agreed to reduce the US military footprint by closing Futenma and relocating its functions to the quiet fishing village of Henoko on the north-east coast. Anger erupted again over the rape of a teenage girl by a US service member in 2024 and the delayed disclosure of the crime. Crimes involving US troops on Okinawa have risen in recent years, from about 40 in 2020 to 101 last year, according to the prefectural police. Okinawa plays a central role in regional tensions. Japan’s government insists US bases on the island act as a deterrent amid Chinese claims over disputed parts of the East and South China Seas and the emergence of a nuclear-armed North Korea. Under the Japan-US status of forces agreement, Ballard, who was arrested in a civilian district while he was off duty, will remain in the custody of the Japanese authorities. Security footage showed him entering the hotel with Yagi and later leaving alone. Yagi’s family said they were “devastated” by her death. Her brother said in a statement: “Our parents are especially exhausted with grief after losing their daughter.”

Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv claims half of Russia’s oil refining capacity destroyed

Long-range Ukrainian strikes have taken out more than half of Russia’s oil refining capacity, hampering Moscow’s ability to supply its forces during the war, the defence ministry in Kyiv has claimed. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly attacked refineries from Moscow to Siberia, sparking a widespread fuel crisis in Russia earlier this year that forced authorities to restrict petrol sales. “Fifty-one per cent of struck refining capacity is a significant blow to the enemy’s economy, to its ability to carry out aggression and supply its troop groupings,” Ukrainian defence minister Yevhenii Khmara said. “Our deep strikes continue to bring the war to Russian territory.” Russian officials have not released figures on damage to the country’s oil infrastructure. But in a rare acknowledgment of the strikes’ economic impact, Vladimir Putin said they had cost Russia roughly 1% of its gross domestic product. “They started attacking oil refineries and openly declared the goal of damaging our economy. Did they achieve their goal? Partially,” the Russian president told a meeting of the Valdai Club forum of international foreign policy experts last Thursday. Donald Trump has blamed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries for high petrol prices, saying the Iran war was no longer responsible. “What’s driving up Gasoline is no longer the strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, ‘Refineries,’ where Russia’s are being blown up by Ukraine,” the US president posted on his Truth Social platform. Six people were killed and nearly 60 injured when Russian bombs struck a residential area of Ukraine’s north-eastern city of Kharkiv on Monday, officials said. Rescue workers led stunned ‌residents out of badly damaged buildings and flats, guiding them carefully around piles of rubble. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, lies close to the Russian border and has come under regular shelling and drone attacks since Moscow invaded in February 2022. French president Emmanuel Macron condemned Russia’s decision to scale up strikes on civilian infrastructure, saying Moscow “has made the irresponsible choice to intensify its strikes on civilian infrastructure and targets”. Russian drones struck a grain ship in the Black Sea on Monday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, after Romania reported a ship had caught fire and sunk near its coast with two crew members killed. “A horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel in neutral waters carrying corn,” the Ukrainian president said on X, adding that the ship was Turkish-owned and that Azerbaijani and Indian nationals were onboard. Romanian authorities said two crew members had died and 11 were rescued after the 139-metre-long (455 foot) Royad Mammadov caught fire in the Black Sea, an increasing battlefield for drone attacks in the war. War-related objects found in the Black Sea had more than doubled in six months, maritime risk expert Ambrey said last month in a report. At least a third of them carried live payloads. The objects include unexploded ordnance, drones and other unmanned vehicles found washed ashore or floating at sea, it said. Ukrainian drones attacked two facilities at the Russian-held ⁠Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in south-eastern Ukraine overnight on Monday, but there was no threat to nuclear safety, the ⁠head of Russia’s state ⁠nuclear corporation said. Alexei Likhachev, director general of Rosatom, said a driver delivering food for plant employees was killed in the drone attack. According ⁠to Likhachev, a laboratory building and a radioactive waste processing plant were the targets. Ukraine has not commented on the incident. Ukraine has begun using artificial intelligence-enabled robot guns to take down Russia’s new and fast-moving jet-powered drones. For months, Kyiv has been seeking a way to intercept the new Russian drones pounding the Ukrainian capital, even as it faces a dire lack of suitable ammunition to take them out. Presidential adviser Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov said on social media that 12 automated turrets had been installed in Kyiv to counter jet-powered Shahed drones, with more planned. Ukraine’s air force later said it had used the robotic turrets to successfully shoot down Russian jet-powered drones, including the Geran-5, for the first time. “It’s machine vision that is used for the shootdowns,” air force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on Ukrainian television. “Artificial intelligence makes it possible to engage even jet-powered drones.” Germany’s foreign intelligence chief has warned that the country risks being drawn into a conflict with Russia as hybrid attacks ordered by Moscow increase. Martin Jaeger, head of Germany’s BND spy service, told lawmakers on Monday that Russia’s undeclared “shadow war” against Germany and its allies was escalating further and has “taken on a new, more dangerous character”. Berlin has invested record sums into rebuilding its military to deter Russia, and is among the largest supporters of Ukraine in the war with Moscow. In Brussels, EU foreign policy chief ⁠Kaja Kallas said Russia ⁠was putting lives at risk across Europe with hybrid attacks.

Fuel from South Korea being shipped to Russia as Ukraine war grinds on

Fuel is being shipped from South Korea to Russia via sanctioned tankers as Moscow scrambles for supplies amid the war in Ukraine, a move one expert said “undermines” Seoul’s public backing for Kyiv. Guardian analysis of port records and ship-tracking data found that in July and August over 176,000 tonnes of fuel, mostly diesel, was loaded at several South Korean ports on to seven tankers that made 14 voyages to Russia’s far east. Three of the vessels were under sanctions by the UK and EU, and one took on its cargo through a ship-to-ship transfer in South Korean waters – a method that can obscure where a cargo came from and lets ships avoid calling at port terminals. “It is shocking that EU-sanctioned tankers loaded fuel at South Korean ports and carried it to Russia”, said Isaac Levi, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Finnish thinktank. “This undermines the sanctions regime and South Korea’s support for Ukraine.” Seoul has sent Ukraine humanitarian aid and non-lethal military supplies such as helmets, body armour and demining vehicles, and in 2023 pledged $2.3bn in support, most of it in loans. But South Korea has long sought to balance its support for Ukraine with its desire to improve ties with Russia. Throughout the war, Seoul has ruled out sending weapons directly to Ukraine, in line with its practice of not supplying lethal arms to countries at war. Moscow has signalled an interest in restoring relations with South Korea, including trade ties. While the fuel trade involves vessels sanctioned by some of Seoul’s western partners, it does not appear to breach South Korean law. South Korea’s own measures against Russia rely mainly on export controls on goods such as industrial machinery, electronics and vehicles. The shipments, however, risk making Seoul look like a weak link in western efforts to pressure Russia, as relations with Kyiv come under strain over the transfer of two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea, which Seoul says was meant to remain secret. *** It is unclear who owned or sold the fuel, which South Korean port records do not show. The largest carrier, the sanctioned Layla, made two voyages from the south-eastern port of Ulsan to Vladivostok leaving on 19 July and 10 August and carrying 57,000 tonnes of diesel in total. On the first trip, it told South Korean authorities its destination was Vladivostok, but on the second it said it was bound for Niigata in Japan. Another sanctioned tanker, the Russian-flagged Astoria, which is also under Australian sanctions, loaded nearly 11,000 tonnes of fuel at Ulsan on 1 August, declaring Japan as its destination, before sailing to Vladivostok. The third sanctioned tanker, the Chongchon, never berthed. It took on about 26,000 tonnes of fuel from an unsanctioned tanker, the Celeste I, at an anchorage off the southern South Korean port of Yeosu in early August, then headed to Vladivostok after declaring Singapore as its destination. The owners and managers of the four tankers did not respond to requests for comment. Russia’s capacity to refine oil has been severely disrupted by Ukrainian drone strikes. Its refinery throughput fell in June to its lowest level in more than 20 years, and diesel output is down nearly 30% on last year, according to the International Energy Agency. Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, the HUR, says Moscow has been forced to import fuel products to feed the “Russian war machine”. According to data from the maritime analytics firm Kpler, the buyers included Rosneft, Russia’s state-controlled oil company, which is under UK, US, EU and Australian sanctions, and NNK, a Russian oil group whose owner, Eduard Khudainatov, and one of its companies, NNK-Oil, are under UK sanctions. In August, Russia imported 368,000 tonnes of oil products by sea, more than seven times the previous month and the highest monthly total since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Kpler data analysed by CREA. South Korea accounted for 112,000 tonnes, or 31%, of that amount, second only to India. Loadings at South Korean ports began to surge in July, just as the country’s president, Lee Jae Myung, pledged $100m for Ukraine’s reconstruction at a Nato summit in Turkey. A 2025 trade association survey found that nearly 80% of South Korean firms that had stopped exporting to Russia since the war began were open to resuming trade. In March, as the war with Iran shut the strait of Hormuz, South Korea capped exports of certain fuels and imported Russian naphtha under a US sanctions waiver. On 1 October, the UK temporarily exempted South Korea’s existing gas contracts from a ban on maritime services for Russian LNG that takes effect in January 2027. When contacted, South Korea’s foreign ministry did not address the shipments or the sanctioned tankers. In a statement, it said that as “a responsible member of the international community, the government supports, and is actively taking part in, international efforts to help end the war in Ukraine and bring about a peaceful recovery.” It said it had expanded its export controls on Russia under the Foreign Trade Act “beyond strategic items to 1,402 non-strategic items with a high potential for diversion to military use” and was “strictly enforcing” them. The government “continues to monitor the implementation of its export controls on Russia and, where necessary, takes action in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations,” the ministry said. The UK Foreign Office did not answer questions about the UK-sanctioned tankers using South Korean ports, or say whether the shipments had been raised with Seoul. A spokesperson said: “The UK remains firmly committed to the effective monitoring of our sanctions and to working with international partners to increase economic pressure on Russia and reduce the revenues funding its illegal war against Ukraine.”

Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victory

Flávio Bolsonaro is in pole position to win Brazil’s presidential election, after a far-right tsunami propelled him to a shock first-round victory over the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, leaving progressive voters reeling. The 45-year-old rightwing candidate received 56.1m votes to Lula’s 53.8m – 47.03% to 45.16% – meaning the 80-year-old leftwinger has a mountain to climb if he is to bounce back in the second round on 25 October. Never, since the return of democracy to Brazil in 1985, has the first-round runner-up managed to turn the game around and win the second ballot. “Miracles are possible in politics. But I don’t see that happening,” the political scientist Miguel Lago said of Lula’s chances of snapping back. “I don’t see Flávio losing this election now.” Speaking outside the White House on Monday, Donald Trump told reporters: “Well, it’s a big victory: close but a very, very big victory. Amazing, actually.” Trump, who is a longtime ally of the Bolsonaro family, predicted the runoff would be “a very close election”. The far-right surge was a triumph – albeit an incomplete one – for the Bolsonaro clan and its 71-year-old patriarch, Jair Bolsonaro. The disgraced ex-president, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula, saw four relatives elected to congress. His 44-year-old wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, won a seat in the senate, as did his second son, Carlos Bolsonaro, who is 43. Bolsonaro’s youngest son, 28-year-old Jair Renan Bolsonaro, and the ex-president’s 62-year-old brother, Renato Bolsonaro, both won seats in the lower house of congress. Across Latin America’s biggest democracy, key congressional and gubernatorial races were also won by staunch Bolsonaristas including Tarcísio de Freitas, who was re-elected as the governor of São Paulo state, and Sérgio Moro, who was elected governor of the southern state of Paraná. Both men were ministers during Bolsonaro’s 2018-22 government. Bolsonaro’s Liberal party (PL) will now boast the largest caucus in the senate with 28 of its 81 seats. Combined with the seats of other hard-right parties, that number rises to 43, giving the movement an upper house majority. Meanwhile, pro-Lula senate candidates, including the former environment minister Marina Silva, the leftwing veteran Benedita da Silva, and the centrist former planning minister Simone Tebet, suffered bitter defeats. Nikolas Ferreira and Lucas Pavanato, two young Bolsonarista social media warriors, became the best-voted congresspeople in Brazilian history, securing more than 3m votes. “We are experiencing a revolution … The far right is growing in a very consistent way, election after election,” said Lago, calling the election the worst for progressive and moderate centrist parties since the late 80s. Lago believed Lula had managed to interrupt the advance of Bolsonaro’s populist movement in 2022, thanks to positive voter memories of his first two terms, from 2002 to 2010. Back then, a global commodities boom allowed Brazil’s first working-class president to fund major social welfare programmes that helped millions escape poverty. “But it was just an interregnum,” Lago said. Control of the senate should allow pro-Bolsonaro politicians to approve an amnesty for their movement’s charismatic leader, allowing the former president to emerge from the Brasília mansion where he is living under house arrest and reassert his leadership of the far right. “I think he will be freed and I think he will be very important during Flávio Bolsonaro’s [presidency],” said Lago. “Flávio will be running the country and [Jair] Bolsonaro will be doing what he has always done: leading the revolution.” The senate majority may also help Bolsonaro’s third son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, return from self-imposed exile in the US. The 42-year-old, who has close ties to Donald Trump’s Maga movement, was sentenced in absentia to four years in prison earlier this year for coercion – the result of his lobbying the Trump administration to interfere in his father’s coup trial. Eduardo Bolsonaro reportedly hopes to become foreign minister if his brother wins the presidency. The result is good news for Trump, who has been accused of trying to sway the election in Bolsonaro’s favour, and his attempt to expand the conservative “orange wave” sweeping Latin America to its biggest democracy and economy. Recent years have seen a succession of pro-Trump presidents win power in the region, from Costa Rica, Honduras and El Salvador to Chile and Colombia. One of Trump’s most enthusiastic regional cheerleaders, the Argentinian president, Javier Milei, celebrated Bolsonaro’s “historic” victory against “the communist Lula”. “The American continent belongs to citizens who want to live in freedom,” Milei wrote on X. The prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, wished Bolsonaro “good luck in the final” and celebrated his “great victory”. He wrote on X: “I look forward to restoring the extraordinary friendship between Israel and Brazil.” Speaking after Sunday’s result was confirmed, Lula put a brave face on what analysts called a catastrophic night for the left. “From tomorrow we will launch a new campaign: [and in] a campaign with only two candidates we will be able to show the difference between our proposals for Brazil,” he said, vowing to expose his rival’s “dark past”, which involves well-documented ties to members of Rio’s underworld and corruption allegations, which Bolsonaro has denied. But the mood at Lula’s post-election event was reportedly funereal and Bolsonaro goes into the second round as the firm favourite. He is likely to be boosted by the migration of votes from the election’s other rightwing candidates – Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Romeu Zema – who, between them, won more than 5.5m votes. Santos quickly announced he would endorse neither candidate, considering both Lula and Bolsonaro to be “crooks”. Zema has vowed to vote against Lula’s Worker’s party (PT) in the runoff, while Caiado has yet to declare his intentions. Lula’s best hope may be convincing some of the record 33 million Brazilians who did not vote to turn out next time. “He will need to mobilise these apathetic voters who, in a sense, have already abandoned politics, which will be an extremely difficult task,” said Camila Rocha, a political scientist who studies Brazil’s new right. Rocha has spent recent months interviewing undecided voters and identified “a great deal of voter apathy, especially among those who are not aligned with Bolsonarismo, and who could potentially vote for Lula”. Although Flávio Bolsonaro has held political office for more than 20 years, “for undecided voters, his main positive characteristic is this idea of ‘renewal’, despite his possible involvement in corruption and with paramilitary groups,” Rocha added. Lago believed only a dramatic shift from Lula’s campaign – such as changing the candidate, or a severe scandal involving Bolsonaro – could change the election’s outcome. But he was doubtful that would occur.