And asked about the length of the conflict, which Trump said would last six weeks but has now passed 11 weeks and hasn’t ended yet, Vance contends that the “active period of conflict” lasted around five weeks, and says that a “big chunk” of the 11 weeks has been under a ceasefire. This is not a forever war, we’re going to take care of business and come home.
Donald Trump has again threatened Iran, saying the US may launch new attacks if Tehran continues to refuse the significant concessions he wants before a deal can be struck to end the Middle East war. The US president said he had called off a fresh wave of strikes, which would have broken the ceasefire in place since early last month. “I was an hour away from making the decision to go today,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. The decision apparently followed a further peace proposal submitted by Tehran via Pakistan, which has mediated, and may have been motivated by the reluctance of allies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, to see hostilities resume. Trump said Iran’s leaders were “begging” to make a deal, but a new US attack would deliver “a big hit” in the coming days if one was not reached. “Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a new nuclear weapon,” he said. Trump has made repeated threats in recent weeks but the continuing failure to follow through has increased the sense that the conflict is deadlocked. Analysts say both sides want to avoid a new round of hostilities but neither are willing to pay the political price of the concessions necessary to secure a peace agreement. “Trumps’ threats have lost all credibility … Both sides are too far apart in terms of what they are willing to accept or work on but neither side want to go back to war. So they are just stuck … and neither side really knows how to get out of this,” said Neil Quilliam of London’s Chatham House. Iran continues to block most shipping in the strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world’s supply of oil and liquid gas before the conflict, while the US has imposed its own naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iranian officials have remained defiant in the face of Trump’s new threats, describing US demands as “excessive”. Since the ceasefire began on 8 April, Tehran and Washington have held only a single round of talks: an unsuccessful 21-hour session in Islamabad. Pakistani mediators have sought to bridge big gaps between the two sides, passing successive proposals from one to the other, but have complained that both are “changing their goalposts”. According to Iran’s ISNA news agency, Mohammed Akraminia, a military spokesperson, reiterated on Tuesday that Tehran would continue to manage the strait of Hormuz, adding that the US needed to “respect the Iranian nation and observe the legitimate rights of the Islamic republic”. On Monday, Iran announced the official formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to manage traffic through the waterway, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has threatened to impose permits on the internet fibre optic cables passing through the strait. Akraminia said on Tuesday that in the event of new attacks Iran would “open new fronts” against the US – which has gathered a vast array of military firepower in the region – and said Tehran had used the ceasefire “to strengthen its combat capabilities”. Experts say it is likely that Iran would also redouble efforts to retaliate against Israel and nearby Gulf states, probably targeting vulnerable oil and other civilian infrastructure. Iranian state media said Tehran’s latest peace proposal involved ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, the withdrawal of US forces from areas close to Iran, and reparations for destruction caused by US-Israeli attacks. Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said Tehran also wanted sanctions lifted, frozen funds released, and an end to the US marine blockade, according to IRNA news agency. The terms as described in the Iranian reports appeared little changed from Iran’s previous offer, which Trump rejected last week as “garbage”. The closure of the strait of Hormuz and the threat of further conflict in the region has sent oil prices soaring, fuelling inflation worldwide and threatening a global recession. A new round of fighting could send prices even higher and stock markets tumbling. White House officials are concerned that the conflict, which has little support among US voters, may derail Republican chances of keeping control of Congress at a time when worries about the cost of living are acute. Meanwhile, Iran faces a deepening economic crisis and potential damage to its oil infrastructure. Inflation is soaring and some officials fear an increase in popular discontent with the regime. Quilliam said: “On Iran, there is no real data so it’s very hard to guesstimate, but we know that the regime is intact and probably more hardline than it has ever been … So no matter the pain they are suffering they are not suddenly going to say ‘OK, we have to get to the negotiating table.” Rights groups have said that since the start of the war, Iran has executed 26 men seen as political prisoners – 14 charged over January protests, one over 2022 demonstrations, and 11 accused of links to banned opposition groups. The Human Rights Activists news agency (Hrana), a US-and Netherlands-based monitoring group, has documented at least 4,023 arrests in Iran between 28 February, when the war started, and 9 May. Hrana has also documented at least 3,636 war fatalities, including 1,701 civilians, from US-Israeli attacks on Iran. On Tuesday, a top commander of US forces in the Middle East avoided taking responsibility for an attack on a school in Minab, southern Iran, on the first day of the war, 28 February, that killed 155 people, saying a “complex” investigation continued. Adm Brad Cooper, the commander of US Central Command, told a congressional oversight panel that “the school itself is located on an active IRGC cruise missile base”, making the investigation “more complex than the average strike”. According to Iranian state media, the attack killed 73 boys, 47 girls, 26 teachers, seven parents, a school bus driver, and another adult.
… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today! Senior EU and US diplomats condemned Russia’s threats against Latvia and the Baltic countries after Russia’s representative told the UN security council that “Nato membership will not protect” them from retaliation if Ukraine launches drones against Russia from their territory (17:58, 18:24). Russia’s Vasily Nebenzya aggressively floated Moscow’s allegations that Ukraine is looking into using the Baltic countries as a launch pad for attacks on Russia (17:55), despite repeated denials from all parties (12:38, 17:57, 18:10). Latvia’s UN representative dismissed the allegations as “pure fiction and pure lies,” with Ukraine’s representative calling them “fairytales” (17:57). The tense exchanges come hours after a Nato fighter jet shot down a stray Ukrainian drone over Estonia (12:10, 12:47), which Kyiv said had been jammed and detoured by Russia (14:10). At least two air alerts were also separately issued in Latvia. The incidents come just days before a key meeting of Nato’s foreign ministers in Sweden on Friday. In other news, Top Nato commanders confirmed that 5,000 US troops will be withdrawn from Europe but insisted these “adjustments” do not impact their ability to deter attacks, even as they warned the continent could see more “redeployment” of US forces in the future, and urged European leaders to ramp up their defence spending (16:18, 16:25, 16:30, 16:41). Troels Lund Poulsen, the leader of the centre-right Danish Liberal Party has announced plans to form a right-leaning minority government (10:55, 11:47), despite no clear political backing for his proposal (12:26). The former Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has been placed under investigation for alleged influence-peddling and other offences by a judge examining the state bailout of a Venezuela-linked airline during the Covid pandemic (10:26). Hungarian prime minister Péter Magyar has landed in Poland as his first foreign trip since taking office earlier this month, where he is due to meet with Poland’s political leaders on Wednesday as he wants to restore bilateral relations after years of tensions with the previous prime minister, Viktor Orbán (15:19, 17:28). If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
The son of Isak Andic, the founder of the fashion chain Mango, has been released on bail of €1m (£866,000) after being arrested and questioned in connection with his father’s death in Catalonia almost 18 months ago. Andic died in December 2024 after apparently falling 100 metres down a ravine while hiking in Montserrat, near Barcelona, with his son, Jonathan. His death aged 71 prompted tributes to him from politicians, journalists and the fashion world. An initial investigation by the Catalan police, the Mossos d’Esquadra, concluded the death was an accident, but officers and judicial sources told El País and La Vanguardia last year that the case was being treated as a possible homicide. On Tuesday the Mossos d’Esquadra said Jonathan Andic, who is now vice-chair of the Mango board, had been arrested and taken to appear before a judge in the Catalan city of Martorell. The 45-year-old was released after posting the €1m bail. The court said the case was being “investigated as a charge of homicide” and ordered him to remain in Spain, surrender his passport and appear weekly before the judge. A spokesperson for the family said they were confident of Andic’s innocence and they would continue to offer investigators their “total cooperation”. El País reported last year that police had found no direct or definitive evidence to explain what happened in the ravine but had “come across a series of clues which, when taken together, had led them to move away from the idea of a mere accident and toward the possibility of a homicide”. La Vanguardia reported that the judge overseeing the case changed Jonathan Andic’s official status from witness to possible suspect in September last year. The family issued a statement to the media at the time saying: “The Andic family has not and will not comment on Isak Andic’s death in all these months. However, they wish to show their respect for the ongoing investigations and will continue to cooperate with the relevant authorities, as they have done so far. They are also confident that this process will be concluded as soon as possible and that Jonathan Andic’s innocence will be proved.” Isak Andic was born to a Sephardic Jewish family in Istanbul in 1953, emigrated to Catalonia with his relatives in the late 1960s and started selling T-shirts to fellow high school pupils. He progressed to running a wholesale business and sold clothes in street markets before opening his first Mango store in 1984. “He saw that we needed colour, style,” Mango’s global retail director, César de Vicente, told Agence France-Presse in March last year. Andic soon opened dozens more stores around Europe and “realised that having the same name, having the same brand, in all the shops, would make the concept much stronger”, De Vicente said.
The Toronto police force, which is already under intense public scrutiny, is facing fresh questions after it emerged that three off-duty officers on vacation in Barcelona were arrested in connection with a sexual assault last week. According to police in Barcelona, the alleged assault occurred in the early hours of 13 May, when the trio of police officers were travelling in a taxi with a sex worker in the Ciutat Vella neighbourhood of the Catalan capital. The officers allegedly tried to force the woman to have sex with them all simultaneously, according to the regional paper El Periódico de Catalunya. When she refused, the three suspects are alleged to have become violent and to have started insulting, threatening and beating the woman. “One of the officers in the back allegedly sexually assaulted the victim, while the other allegedly punched her in the face, causing a cut above her eyebrow that required stitches due to profuse bleeding,” the newspaper wrote. “Faced with this situation, the woman called for help from the taxi window.” When plainclothes officers from Barcelona’s municipal police force stopped the taxi and ordered its occupants out, one of the Canadian policemen allegedly reacted violently, while another – who had allegedly hit the woman – ran away. Two of them were arrested at the time, while a third fled,” said a spokesperson for the Catalan police, the Mossos d’Esquadra. “One of the two men arrested in Barcelona has been charged with sexual assault and assault, while another has been released on bail. The third man was arrested on the morning of Friday 15 May in Palma de Mallorca in cooperation with the Guardia Civil.” It was the local media reports in Barcelona that first tipped off Canadian media that the officers had been arrested and faced criminal charges. The Toronto police service confirmed the arrests on 18 May, but it did not respond to questions over why it failed to proactively disclose the arrests by Catalan police. A Toronto police spokesperson called the allegations “serious” but said the force was not identifying the officers. The police service said it was unable to comment further on the charges, as the matters are now before the court. The allegations come as the police force, the largest in Canada, grapples with immense reputational damage over recent allegations of corruption. In recent months, at least eight officers have been charged in a sprawling investigation for accepting for bribes, aiding drug traffickers, leaking personal information to criminals who then carried out shootings, and helped members of organised crime in a plot to murder a corrections officer. The investigation, Project South, has exposed the “corrosive” reach of organised crime into Canada’s largest municipal police service, said the city’s police chief. None of the officers arrested in Spain has been linked publicly to Project South. The Toronto police association, which represents police officers, said it was aware of the incident involving three of its members but provided no further details. “Given these charges relate to an off-duty incident, the Toronto police association has no further comment,” the group said.
In explaining Xi Jinping’s allusion to the Thucydides trap, Kate Lamb refers to Thucydides’ statement that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable” (What is the Thucydides Trap and why did Xi Jinping mention it in his meeting with Donald Trump?, 15 May). That is the translation used by the Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, who popularised the phrase “Thucydides trap”, and who attributes the translation to Richard Crawley’s 1874 edition. It is often said that Thucydides’ Greek is better translated as “the Athenians growing great and creating fear in the Spartans compelled them towards making war”. That is, Thucydides was speaking of a subjective impression of necessity on the Spartans’ part rather than claiming absolute necessity. Less well-known is the fact that the translation Allison uses was introduced into Crawley’s edition in a revision by his nephew Richard Feetham in 1903, at the very time that the danger of “inevitable war” between Britain and Germany began to be seen as a threat. Thucydides’ history brings out how perceptions of necessity can be self-fulfilling. It is to be hoped that Allison’s misleading reading of Thucydides can at least help modern politicians avoid his misnamed, but still all too real, trap better than their early 20th-century predecessors. Tim Rood St Hugh’s College, Oxford University • It was cruel of Xi Jinping to bring up the Thucydides trap in his opening remarks when meeting Donald Trump. Not because of any historical parallels with present-day events, but because it is almost impossible that Trump will be able to respond due to his wayward tongue being unable to render Thucydides or even Peloponnese. Look forward to a new conflict being added to the classical canon: the polo ponies war. Phil Coughlin Houghton-le-Spring, Tyne and Wear • Have an opinion on anything you’ve read in the Guardian today? Please email us your letter and it will be considered for publication in our letters section.
Global health leaders are considering whether vaccines or medicines still in development could be used to fight Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as the World Health Organization’s chief said he was deeply concerned by the outbreak’s speed and scale. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said there had been at least 500 suspected cases of Ebola and 130 suspected deaths in DRC since the new outbreak began – up from about 200 cases and 65 deaths when it was announced on Friday. Dr Mesfin Teklu Tessema, senior director of health at the International Rescue Committee, which works in the DRC’s Ituri Province, where most cases have been reported, told the Guardian he expected current known cases were “the tip of the iceberg”. Spread across the porous border to South Sudan, he said, was probably “a matter of when”. He warned that a weak public health infrastructure there meant “we are actually flying blind”. The IRC provides humanitarian relief in the region, including support to health clinics. Tessema said there was a severe lack of basic protective equipment, such as gloves, masks and goggles, for healthcare workers seeing patients in the area. He added: “Ebola is a very deadly disease – this strain has a mortality rate between 30% and 50%. That is with availability of care. When care is not available, when people are arriving late, that risk of mortality could be higher than that.” There are a number of strains of the virus that can cause Ebola. The Bundibugyo strain, which has been identified as responsible for the current outbreak, has no approved vaccine or treatment. Scientists from the DRC and Uganda published the genome of the virus online on Monday night. Experts who examined the genetic data said it suggests the outbreak was recently sparked by a “spillover event”, meaning a human became infected through contact with an infected animal, and has since spread from human to human. “That is useful because it suggests this outbreak can potentially be traced and interrupted as it has been in the past. Repeated independent spillovers from an animal source would complicate the efforts to stop the outbreak,” said David Matthews, Professor of Virology, University of Bristol. A WHO official in Ituri province, said the outbreak could take a long time to bring under control. “I don’t think that in two months we will be done with this outbreak,” Anne Ancia, the WHO’s representative for the DRC, told reporters in Geneva at the World Health Assembly, pointing to a recent Ebola outbreak that took two years to end. Nearly 2,300 people died between 2018 and 2020 in the deadliest outbreak in the DRC to date. “At the international level, [we are] looking at what candidate vaccines or treatment are available and if any could be of use in this outbreak,” Ancia added. In Uganda, people have been told to avoid hugging and holding hands, and the country’s annual Uganda Martyrs’ Day celebrations on 3 June, which usually involve millions of people gathering, has been cancelled. While the WHO recommends screening at border crossings with the DRC and Uganda, it urged other states not to place restrictions on travel and trade. Some countries, including the US, have placed bans on travellers from the area. Rwanda has closed its borders with the DRC. A senior official at Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said the response was likely to be complicated by a lack of access to healthcare in the affected area, where there is a lengthy armed conflict. Tedros said the number of cases and deaths would change “as field operations are scaling up, including strengthening surveillance, contact tracing and laboratory testing”. Thirty cases in Ituri have been confirmed by laboratory testing, and one death and case in Kampala, Uganda. A US citizen has also tested positive and has been transferred to Germany. The WHO is convening a technical group for advice on what tests, vaccines and treatments could be useful. Vaccines are only available for the Zaire strain, which was identified in 1976. A 2023 campaign in the DRC vaccinated about 55,000 frontline workers in the Ituri and neighbouring North Kivu provinces against that strain. Ancia said the expert view was those vaccines “cannot be used in the current response” although “a lot more studies need to be done”. The outbreak, made public on Friday, was declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by Tedros in the early hours of Sunday morning. On Tuesday, he said: “This is the first time a director general has declared a PHEIC before convening an emergency committee. I did not do this lightly … I’m deeply concerned about the scale and speed of the epidemic.” Tedros said reports of Ebola cases in urban areas, where the virus typically spreads more easily, were cause for concern. Cases among health workers indicated potential spread in clinics and hospitals, he said, and there was “significant population movement in the area” for work and also due to conflict. The province of Ituri was “highly insecure”, he added. “Conflict has intensified since late 2025, and the fighting has escalated significantly over the past two months resulting in civilian deaths. Over 100,000 people have been newly displaced. And in Ebola outbreaks, you know what displacement means.” Dr Maria Guevara, the international medical secretary at MSF, who has worked in the DRC, said: “The fact is the system is broken and the community is not able to access any type of health care.” She said conflict had made routine immunisation extremely difficult, and that most of the DRC had experienced severe outbreaks of cholera only last year. Speaking at an event in Geneva organised by the Independent Panel on Pandemic Preparedness and Response, she added: “You put Ebola on top and then you want to be able to do the proper protocol and case management, proper case treatment, but they’re inundated with all the other outbreaks, also dying of maternal mortality, from malaria, from everything else. And you’re expecting the community to be able to understand why you’re coming in with a zoot suit [slang for the personal protective gear worn by health workers].” Ancia said the WHO was rushing to address the current crisis and had deployed more than 40 experts to the field, alongside national responders. The UN health agency had also sent 12 tonnes of supplies, she said, including personal protective equipment for frontline health workers, from the DRC’s capital, Kinshasa, and Nairobi in Kenya. Ebola spreads through direct contact with body fluids from infected people or animals and causes symptoms that can include high fever, vomiting and internal and external bleeding. According to the WHO, the average fatality rate from Ebola is about 50%, varying from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks. This is the 17th Ebola outbreak in the DRC since the discovery of the virus.