Friday briefing: Burnham passes first test as Labour heads off Green challenge
Good morning. Labour has won the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, heading off a challenge from the Greens and confirming prime minster Andy Burnham’s ability to consolidate vibes into votes. Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali – who is currently leader of Camden council – won 12,292 votes while her closest rival and Green party leader, Zack Polanski, received 8,928 in a byelection that was called after former prime minister Keir Starmer resigned from his London seat last month. This was a comfortable win for Labour in a contest that also saw the Greens triple their vote share. The victory will probably be framed by Labour as another bound in the Burnham bounce, while a Greens spokesperson this morning insisted that Polanski winning 33% of the vote share to Abdi-Wali’s 45% “shows just how far we’ve come”. Some, of course, will be blaming that ill thought out Zionism motion for the loss. This morning’s newsletter takes you beyond the party spin lines with our correspondents who live and report in the constituency. But first the headlines. Five big stories Europe news | High school students in France again blockaded schools and marched through cities, in the tenth day of protests that have left hundreds injured. UK news | Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has won his legal challenge against Thames Valley police over search warrants that led to his arrest, which have been ruled unlawful. US politics | Pete Hegseth has said the execution of the former army psychiatrist who killed 13 people at Fort Hood will be a public event. Ukraine | A Russian missile strike on a bus in the eastern city of Kramatorsk has killed at least 30 people, officials have said, in one of the worst attacks by Moscow on Ukrainian civilians this year. Business | Oil prices have risen sharply amid fears about escalating tensions in the Middle East and a squeeze on production from the threat of a hurricane off the US coast. In depth: Burnham shores up Labour’s left flank
This vote was a test not just of Burnham’s bounce but also his breadth: after seeing off Reform in Makerfield in the victory that paved the way for him to become prime minister, Labour has shored up its left flank too after the prime minister delivered an unapologetically left wing prospectus to his party conference in Liverpool just a few weeks ago. Sagal Abdi-Walim, who arrived in the UK as a child refugee from Somalia, said her victory was “deeply personal”, telling supporters: “I hope this moment also says something about who gets to belong … I came here as a child and this place gave me so much.” Speaking to broadcasters after the declaration, Polanski stayed upbeat, insisting voters had been excited about Green policies, but conceding: “So many people on the doorstep told me they wanted to give Andy Burnham a chance – let’s see what he does with it.” Guardian reporter Sammy Gecsoyler, who was at the count in Camden council offices, described a fairly “low energy” affair, where it looked certain from early on in the night that Labour had come through. It’s worth reflecting that the turnout here was nothing like it was in Makerfield – or in Gorton and Denton in February, where the Green’s Hannah Spencer pushed Labour into third place. Turnout yesterday was 38.7%, the lowest for any byelection held in England during this parliament and 15.4% down from 2024. *** A constituency of contradictions The battle in Starmer’s former seat may have seemed fairly quiet from a distance, but not for those that live there. Guardian reporter Tobi Thomas, for example, estimates she’s had Green canvassers on her Camden doorstep four times a week since the start of September. She predicted a Labour win: “A lot of my neighbours are lifelong Labour supporters.” But she also observed the Greens were campaigning hard, “with talking points on the environment and Gaza.” As Tobi points out, Holborn and St Pancras is a wildly mixed constituency. It takes in everyone from media execs in their Primrose Hill mansions, to the Euston school leaders facing falling pupil numbers due to a lack of family council housing. Across the London constituency, 43% of people live in social housing, almost half are aged between 18 and 34, and around the same number were born abroad. Even before her selection as a candidate, Reform spokesperson for home affairs Zia Yusuf was keen to point out that Sagal Abdi-Wali happens to have been born in Somalia, in a dog whistle post on X that was later condemned as “straightforward racism” by Labour. While Reform has no foothold in the area, Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee – who lives in the constituency too – wondered if attacks like this might galvanise wavering Labour supporters otherwise tempted by the Greens. Polanski’s pitch has been that a vote for the Greens is a protest vote – but one with real power. According to analysis by Politico, the party has spent nearly £5,000 pushing Meta ads that promise a Green win would “keep the government in check”. Abdi-Wali, who says that she was spurred to join the Labour party in 2015 due to a the visible rise in homelessness in King’s Cross, has focused squarely on local issues in her campaign. But this local emphasis sits in tension with national scrutiny of the party. Out on the doorstep with Abdi-Wali in a social housing estate, Polly Toynbee described how warmly the Labour candidate was recognised for her community work. “She takes notes of people’s problems, from housing repairs to e-bikes blocking the road, her local campaign matching Burnham’s localism,” Polly wrote. “But we also meet a college lecturer, who had a run-in with their employer over Gaza, who will ‘never vote Labour again’.” *** Is Labour’s identity crisis over? It’s true that Gaza led many Labour voters to go Green in the English council elections earlier this year. Two years earlier, in Holborn and St Pancras, a constituency with a 20% Muslim population, Starmer’s majority fell from 27,763 to 11,572, and an independent candidate who described him as “terrible on Gaza” came in second with 18.9% of the vote. This morning’s results will now be scrutinised to assess the impact of Burnham’s significant shift of position. The new prime minister has apologised for Labour’s initial response to Israel’s military action in Gaza, saying that the UK was too slow to call for a ceasefire. More recently, foreign secretary Ed Miliband announced sanctions on trade with illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank (but, Labour is still yet to act on the proscription of Palestine Action). Speaking on the BBC earlier this morning, polling expert John Curtice said that the result largely reflected shifts in national polls, with the Greens “notably weaker” than in the spring, when they were at an historic high of close to 20%. But he warned: “45% of the vote is four points down on what Keir Starmer got in 2024. Bear in mind that the vote for Starmer fell precipitously in 2024. And compared with what Labour was getting in this constituency in 2019 or 2017, Labour’s vote is still well down.” Curtice’s up-sum was that Labour are in a much better position than they were six months ago, but still not as popular as they were in 2024. Calling a general election now – which, to be fair, Burnham ruled out before Labour conference – would still be “an extremely risky project for them”, Curtice said. The results also show the Greens “are more significant players than they have ever been”, though they have lost a significant portion of the ground the gained during the early months of Polanski’s leadership. Meanwhile, the snap analysis from Peter Kellner, the former head of YouGov, was that Labour had defied its “truly dreadful record defending its own seats when it is in government and faces a by-election challenge from the left”. Most importantly, the result confirms Burnham’s ability to hold together Labour’s broad coalition: from the older, anti-immigration, Eurosceptic voters that made up a large proportion of voters in the Makerfield byelection, to the comparatively younger, more diverse and progressive left-leaning constituents of Holborn and St Pancras. Some might say this result cements a glorious union of north with south, but, I’ll say it for the umpteenth time: Makerfield is not in the north, it’s in the middle. *** Is the grass still Greener? At this point, it feels a bit rude to mention Gorton and Denton again. In politics-time, it might feel like a century ago now, but reporter Matthew Pearce tells me that the Greens were still celebrating it at their conference last weekend. It was a “sliding doors” moment for Labour, Matthew says, and many Green strategists see Polanski’s early success as a direct cause of Starmer’s downfall – and Burnham’s subsequent ascension. “It’s clear Polanski played a role,” says Matthew, “but the question now is whether that role will diminish because of Labour’s new direction.” Polanski has said from the outset of his campaign to be an MP that he would remain as Green party leader even if he lost – so take any early morning pundit speculation with a heavy salting. That said, former Green leader Caroline Lucas was quick out the traps shortly after the polls closed, saying he made a “mistake not to show leadership” over the Zionism policy vote. According to Matthew, the Greens are now focused on the impact of the New Labour prime minister. “In his conference speech, Burnham addressed so many issues that the Greens have been using to distinguish themselves from Labour,” he explains. When Polanski became leader he said many times he ultimately wanted the Greens to replace Labour. But in his speech at conference, he returned to a new phrasing: “Vote Green, watch Labour move”. “They know they have to adapt to the new political spectrum,” says Matthew. What else we’ve been enjoying
Yet one more consequence of the AI boom? Robin Buller investigates the cost of renting in the industry’s home city of San Francisco, and meets some of the “folks living on the edge”. Charlie Lindlar, newsletters team Our photo gallery today was incredible – vibrant, surprising, informative – my unexpected favourite was looking at the Milwaukee Brewers celebrating after a big win. Poppy Noor, newsletters team Leah Harper is completely fascinating in this piece on the end of hosting at home. From house shame to cost of living to simply having no friends, it’s a social crisis with many causes. Charlie This week’s you be the judge – on the contentious topic of who gets to keep things when you split the purchase and then move on, left me with nowhere to go! I kind of agree with both parties here? Poppy Sofia Coppola is typically cool and candid in her interview with Guardian readers – especially in her answer to what Bill Murray whispers to Scarlett Johansson at the end of Lost in Translation. Charlie Sport
Basketball | The launch of NBA Europe will be delayed until 2028, with a pre-qualifying competition planned for next year to find four temporary members to join the 16-team league’s inaugural season alongside 12 permanent franchises. Football | Women’s Super League clubs have agreed to a major funding increase for match officials but the wait for full-time referees in the English top tier is set to continue until 2029. Rugby league | Runaway Championship winners London Broncos have been graded below even Barrow Raiders for next season – but they are still set to become the 15th team in an expanded Super League next season. Something for the weekend Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now
Film The Social Reckoning (in cinemas now) | ★★★☆☆ Jeremy Strong’s slow-talking Facebook founder turns into a cameo, background to a thriller about a whistleblower that somehow never mentions Trump. Read Peter Bradshaw’s full review. TV Carrie (Prime Video) | ★★★★☆ This witty, smart remake takes bullying and telekinetic violence to new extremes. Even the shower scene is more excruciating than the original. Read Lucy Mangan’s full review here. Music Troye Sivan: She’s the Best | ★★★★☆ Adored by the A-list and filling arenas, but without huge smash hits, the Australian singer treads his own distinctive path through pop via shoegaze, Balearic and the Smiths. Read Alexis Petridis’s full review here. Game Silver Pines | ★★★★☆ Abandoned shops, ruined apartment buildings and rotting sewer networks make up a dark landscape in which you play a private eye searching for a missing singer-songwriter. Read Keith Stuart’s review here. The front pages
The Guardian splashes on “Stark warning over rising demand for NHS autism and ADHD care”. The Times has “ADHD label risks ‘harm for life’ for youngsters” and the Daily Mail says “Rush to diagnose autism can damage children”. The Telegraph leads with “Bank chief: Don’t risk repeat of Truss chaos” and top story at the Financial Times is “Open AI’s $20bn cut to annualised revenues damps investor optimism”. The Independent headlines on “Andrew wins legal fight over police raid on his homes”, Sun runs with “Andy cops: No sweat” and the Mirror has “It’s not over”. The Latest
Will they, won’t they? EU flirts with UK rejoining Andy Burnham is pressing ahead with his Brexit U-turn, using a visit to Germany to make a ‘commitment to deeper EU cooperation’. The prime minister has promised closer ties on issues such as security, youth mobility and immigration. The move has been welcomed by senior European officials, including the French finance minister, who invited the UK ‘to come all the way back’ to the EU. With public polling now shifting against Brexit, is the door open for the UK to decide if it wants to rejoin? Lucy Hough speaks to Europe correspondent Jon Henley. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Can hope save the planet? Helen Pilcher ponders that question in this column centred on a new biodiversity report, The Science of Hope, which shows how 32 species of bird (including New Zealand’s kākāpō, pictured above) and 16 types of mammal have been saved from extinction since 1993. Pilcher writes that far from “hopium” (that is, misleading tales of false hope), the report shows the importance of telling the positive stories in the fight against climate change and habitat loss. “That’s the kind of hope we need: pragmatic, resilient and open to revision. We need our governments to be honest about the scale of the challenge we face. Because when they withhold information, they don’t just rob us of knowledge. They also rob us of hope,” she writes. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply