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Consequences of Iran war ‘may echo for months or years to come,’ EU chief warns – Europe live

In somewhat lighter news, we know that many of you have been following the saga of Timmy the whale and the audacious attempt to rescue him from Germany and send him back to the Atlantic Ocean. Our Kate Connolly reported on this in detail. Timmy is now properly under way towards the Atlantic, travelling at steady 4.5kn (8.5 km/h). The plan is to take him around the northern end of Denmark and then release into the wild again – but it will take a few days to get there. You can follow his journey aboard a custom-made whale barge – essentially a giant steel aquarium – pulled by Fortuna B ship here.

Indian billionaire’s son offers to house Pablo Escobar’s hippos at his private zoo

It remains one of the strangest conundrums in modern zoological history – what to do with the descendants of Pablo Escobar’s hippos? The animals – herbivores native to sub-Saharan Africa – were originally imported into Colombia by the drug kingpin for his own entertainment. But the beasts and their offspring were left to roam free after his death in 1993. Now, the expanding population of feral hippopotamuses have become such an environmental blight, they are facing a mass extermination by the authorities. Yet they may have found an unlikely stay of execution, after they were offered shelter in India by the son of a billionaire. Anant Ambani, the son of Indian tycoon Mukesh Ambani, has revived an earlier offer to bring the 80 hippos to his Vantara animal sanctuary, in the state of Gujarat, to save them from death. Ambani said that as the hippos were “living, sentient beings … if we have the ability to save them through a safe and humane solution, we have a responsibility to try”. But Vantara is shrouded in controversy. Home to more than 150,000 animals, including many endangered species, it has faced allegations of illegal and unethical sourcing of its inhabitants. The international watchdog Cites (convention on international trade in endangered species) has flagged alleged noncompliance with wildlife trade rules. Some critics have accused the sanctuary of indirect complicity in wildlife trafficking, while others have condemned Vantara as an Ambani family “vanity zoo” – the public do not have access. The project is also seen to have weighty political backing, and it was relaunched by the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, himself. The Ambani family and Vantara deny the allegations and an investigation last year by the supreme court of India found no evidence of wrongdoing. A similar plan to bring 60 of the Colombian hippos to the sanctuary, when it was formerly known as Green’s rescue and rehabilitation, was first proposed in 2023. However, the logistical problems of capturing and moving the hippos, which live in the wild and weigh roughly two tonnes each, as well as matters concerning permits and the inter-governmental organisation involved, appear to have prevented the animals from making the journey to India. This time, a statement by Ambani said he had directly appealed to the Colombian government to allow the “safe, scientifically led translocation that would bring the 80 animals to a permanent home”. “These 80 hippos did not choose where they were born, nor did they create the circumstances they now face,” he added. It would be no small feat to ship the hippos to India and would probably come with a hefty price tag, possibly more than $4m (£3m). Should they make it to Gujarat, it would add another twist in the adventures of Escobar’s hippos. It was back in the 1980s that Colombia’s most famous drug lord brought four hippos from sub-Saharan Africa to join the zoo on his Hacienda Nápoles, which also included elephants and giraffes. After Escobar died in a special forces raid in 1993, the authorities left the hippos – which are dangerous and difficult to control – to run wild. Over the years, they made their home on the Magdalena River basin, where their population exploded due to a lack of predators and abundant food. According to recent estimates, there are more than 200 hippos roaming free, the largest population outside Africa and one of Colombia’s greatest environmental menaces. They have destroyed vegetation and terrorised and killed local animals and livestock. So far, efforts to sterilise them have not worked fast enough. As experts warned their population could reach more than 1,000 in coming decades, Colombian authorities announced this month that the hippos would begin to be formally hunted and culled to bring their numbers under control – an announcement that sparked outrage from animal rights campaigners. Questions remain over the suitability of Vantara for the boisterous, mud-loving animals. Hippos are not native to India and, while the sanctuary hosts bears, crocodiles, elephants, leopards and tigers, they do not publicly have any record of homing a hippo – let alone 80 of them. However, Ambani insisted that his sanctuary would give the Escobar hippos the safe home they needed. “Vantara has the expertise, infrastructure and resolve to support this effort, entirely on Colombia’s terms,” his statement added.

Wednesday briefing: Where Starmer stands after another precarious day in parliament

Good morning. Keir Starmer is on thin ice. The prime minister survived a bruising Tuesday in the Commons as MPs continued to scrutinise his account of the decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Almost all Labour MPs backed Starmer in a key vote on whether he should face an inquiry into whether he misled parliament. But in Westminster there is a growing feeling that the Labour leader is on borrowed time. Next week’s local and parliamentary elections, which Starmer will face as one of the most unpopular prime ministers since records began, is likely to see public dissatisfaction crystallise. “He’s in last chance saloon,” one minister said after last night’s vote. For today’s newsletter I spoke with the Guardian’s policy editor, Kiran Stacey, about a critical few weeks for the prime minister and whether Labour MPs could move to replace him. First, the headlines. Five big stories US | King Charles has extolled the importance of Britain’s “special relationship” with the US in a speech to Congress that made pointed reference to the importance of Nato, the defence of Ukraine and the climate crisis. Middle East | Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) has warned. Oil | The UAE has quit the Opec oil cartel after 60 years of membership, in a heavy blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, as global energy markets contend with the biggest supply crisis in history. UK news | The chair of NatWest was forced to defend the bank against accusations of “climate backtracking” at a chaotic annual shareholder meeting, which was temporarily suspended owing to singing protesters. Women’s rights | Fifa has given permission for Afghan Women United – a squad composed of refugees scattered around the world in Australia, the Middle East and Europe – to represent Afghanistan in official competitions without requiring the approval of the Taliban, which banned the team. In depth: ‘Labour MPs can’t decide how to get rid of him’ Less than two years ago, Keir Starmer swept to a remarkable victory in the 2024 general election, winning an enormous majority on the promise of change and accountability. A return to calm, sensible government and drawing a line under 14 years of chaotic Tory rule was core to the Labour leader’s pitch to the country. But chaos grips the UK political class once again – triggered by reporting by the Guardian that Peter Mandelson, a friend of convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, failed security vetting during the appointment process as US ambassador – and it is unclear whether Starmer will get to celebrate his second anniversary as prime minister in July. The Labour leader denies he had any knowledge of the failed vetting process, insisting he would never have appointed Mandelson had he known, and says that the correct hiring process was followed. But many MPs are not so sure. The leader of the opposition, Kemi Badenoch, and the Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, each excoriated Starmer on Tuesday over his account of the decision to appoint the disgraced former US ambassador, accusing him of a “cover-up”. It followed a morning of committee meetings in which Morgan McSweeney, the prime minister’s former chief of staff and a confidant of Mandelson, said that he was at fault for recommending him for the position. He described learning the true extent of Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein as like “having a knife through my soul”. The loss of confidence in Starmer’s leadership has been a slow burn, says Kiran Stacey, who thinks that the local elections on Thursday of next week will be a more perilous moment for the prime minister than this week’s parliamentary scrutiny. “Labour MPs are very depressed. They have mostly decided that they can’t go into the next election with him as their leader and would like somebody else to do the job by then. What they can’t decide is how they should get rid of him, when they should get rid of him, and who they should replace him with,” he says. *** A stubborn leader Starmer is unlikely to go quietly despite his extreme unpopularity. Satisfaction with the prime minister is historically low, polling shows, with around half of the country thinking that he should resign. This is not as low as the end of, say, Boris Johnson’s leadership, but it is bleak. Even so, Starmer is likely to be unyielding to this criticism, says Kiran. “People who know Starmer say that he’s extremely stubborn and can be impervious to outside criticism. It’s difficult to know how much he is affected by polls showing he is one of the least popular prime ministers in history,” he says. “It doesn’t seem to affect him in the way that you might think.” The emotional impact of an electoral wipeout in the upcoming elections might change things, says Kiran. Historical losses are forecast in Scotland, Wales and London for Labour to the Greens, Reform and nationalist parties. *** Waiting for the next scandal Losing the cabinet would be fatal for Starmer’s political fortunes, and Kiran says there are signs of growing disquiet among key figures in public statements. “Ed Miliband last week did not really defend Starmer, and Yvette Cooper criticised the idea of giving [former Starmer aide] Matthew Doyle an ambassadorship in the Commons. We reported last week that there was cabinet disagreement over his decision to sack Olly Robbins,” he says. “So, if they do turn on him, that might end up being the moment that the PM realises that what people are saying about him is not going to change.” But it might not happen quickly. For Boris Johnson, it was the Chris Pincher scandal – not Partygate – that brought his time as prime minister to an end. Kiran says that it is often something unexpected that topples a leader, and that it might just be the next scandal that calls time on Starmer. “MPs and the cabinet may simply decide they cannot defend the prime minister any more. They won’t go on the morning media rounds – it’s just one of too many things,” he says. *** A replacement in the wings Amid the growing scrutiny of Starmer, there is a growing consensus among Labour MPs about who should replace him, says Kiran. The former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, the health secretary, Wes Streeting, and even Ed Miliband have been rumoured as potential replacements. However, even though he was blocked from standing at the Gorton and Denton byelection, the Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, is increasingly seen as a figure that all sides of the party can unite around. This, too, may buy Starmer more time as MPs try to find a way to get Burnham back into parliament. “The polls suggest Burnham is the one that would actually change Labour’s electoral fortunes. Having said that, he is also the least likely candidate in that he’s not an MP. He’s the most difficult to install,” says Kiran. “In the short term, that could weirdly keep Starmer in place because the people who’ve decided to back Burnham have to wait for him to get back in.” What else we’ve been reading Jessica Murray tried the £450 Adidas trainers that powered Sabastian Sawe to the first ever sub-two-hour marathon. Her take? “Much more buoyant than any time I’ve run before” – and she knocked a minute off her PB to boot. Charlie Lindlar, newsletters team I really enjoyed this read by Amelia Dhuga on how a hit Lebanese YouTube comedy show is confronting misogynistic attitudes. Patrick Speaking of unpopular prime ministers, Zoe Williams asks an important question: when the public find our leaders more and more unbearable, what if it’s not them that’s the problem … but us? Charlie Claudia Efemini writes about how zine creators are resisting the rise of AI use in their self-published booklets. Patrick Some tips are easier and more permanent than others, but as a serial small treat buyer, I was inspired by Jane Hoskyn’s guide to cutting out impulse buying. Charlie Sport Football | Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia both scored twice for PSG before Bayern Munich hit back to reduce their losing deficit to 5-4 in a magnificent semi-final first leg. Football | Brighton’s plan to establish Europe’s first purpose-built women’s stadium is the “kind of progress we have dreamed about for years”, the Brighton and former England forward Fran Kirby has said. Athletics | Mary Cain made it to world championships at 17 and joined Nike’s Oregon Project. At 29, Cain is finally bringing to light the hellish years she spent under coach Alberto Salazar. The front pages The Guardian splashes with “Charles hails alliance of US and Britain in age of division”. “King and Trump forge a very special relationship” – the Times may be putting it a bit high? The Financial Times runs with “US special relationship is ‘probably Israel’, says envoy in leaked remarks”. The i paper’s interpretation is “King tells Congress: America and the UK must reconcile”. In UK politics, “Starmer offers to bring back Rayner” says the Telegraph. In the Express, Kemi Badenoch says to Labour MPs “You are part of Mandelson cover-up” after they voted down an inquiry. Not all his MPs backed Starmer, the Mail delights in pointing out: “Labour revolt over Starmer’s sleaze cover-up”. The Mirror has “Blatant Profiteering”, going after BP over its Iran war windfall. An offbeat one in the Metro: “Face facts! Op can’t turn you into an AI pic!”. That is about patients’ plastic surgery demands. Today in Focus Siri, where does Apple go next? Guardian US tech editor Blake Montgomery talks about the future of Apple after the resignation of its longtime CEO Tim Cook Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad The Teifi valley in Wales was once at the centre of the country’s wool-weaving and fishing industries. Now, with its fish stocks plummeting and mills shuttered, a grassroots initiative is hoping to give the valley a new purpose with an 83-mile hiking trail. The Teifi valley trail launched on 25 April thanks to the collective efforts of local ramblers’ groups, “Walkers are welcome” communities and footpath associations, who reopened paths, secured permissions, put up signposts and created a guide. “One of the main reasons for the trail is to get people with backpacks and boots down here to spend money,” says the Teifi valley trail association’s James Williams. “We’ve seen the economic effect the coastal paths have; we thought we could have a bit of that as well.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

‘People assume we’re grifters’: disabled Britons report rise in abuse over blue badges

Disabled people who use blue badges to go about their daily lives have said they are being harassed, questioned and even assaulted, as anti-benefits rhetoric becomes more mainstream in the UK. About 3 million people in the UK now have a blue badge, including 1 in 15 adults in England. The number of people who qualify for the scheme – which allows drivers to park in more accessible spaces – has caused some to warn of misuse and fraud. The AA has called for a crackdown on people using fake or stolen blue badges as the number on the scheme grows, while the Daily Mail “names and shames” drivers taken to court for fraudulently using a badges. But the culture of suspicion has, according to the dozens of users who contacted the Guardian, given rise to a tide of abuse from members of the public towards badge holders, including accusations that they are faking their disability. One badge holder, Charlotte* from Aberdeen, has not been back to her local Co-op since her carer was assaulted after parking in a disabled bay last year. “I was helping my carer put my shopping away in my car and a lady came up to my carer and said: ‘You don’t look very disabled to me, you shouldn’t be parked there.’ My carer told her the badge is for me. The lady got so angry that she pushed her trolley into my carer.” When Charlotte, who has muscular dystrophy and autism, started crying and got back in the car to leave, the woman then used her vehicle to block them in, she said, before using her vehicle to block them in. “She was waving her hands around, swearing, just so angry,” the 27-year-old recalls. “We’ve never been back since. I’m worried my carers will get assaulted again just because they’re helping me park somewhere I need.” Disabled people using accessible services have long faced harassment from other members of the public but there are fears the rise in rhetoric about “free BMWs” and “golden tickets” in recent months has legitimised the questioning of people’s disabilities. The Guardian has heard from almost 100 disabled people and their families who have been challenged by strangers for using a blue badge. Many said they have been verbally abused, with some being filmed on phones, physically intimidated, or having their mobility aid pulled away. Recent research by MS Society showed more than one in five people with multiple sclerosis in the UK had been questioned for using a blue badge, with some reporting being shouted at, harassed or even spat at. “On a weekly basis, I get challenged by the elderly and experience hostility for using my blue badge, because I look young,” said Dave, 35, from Bournemouth. “Some make sarcastic remarks such as: ‘Using your nan’s badge?’” Dave, who needs a walking stick due to fibromyalgia, has been repeatedly recorded by members of the public when he parks in a disabled bay. “In February, an elderly man started filming me on his phone and said: ‘You’re clearly not disabled, I’m putting you on social media.’” On another occasion, an older woman filmed him through his car window while physically stopping him from getting out. “She had such a menacing face, so I opened the car window and she said: ‘Move your car, I need that spot. I’m disabled, I’m elderly, you’re not. You’re clearly using a fraudulent badge or someone else’s.’” Emma*, 45, from London, said public hostility towards her disabled child meant she now found it hard to leave the house. Seven-year-old Amelia* has a severe learning disability and needs a specialist buggy due to mobility problems. When the family used a blue badge space in a multi-storey car park last year, an older woman questioned whether Amelia was really disabled. “This particularly upset her [11-year-old] older sister, who is very protective,” Emma said. “I just wanted to cry.” Emma has anxiety and depression and now finds herself “tensing up” when the family goes anywhere. “Facing harassment and scepticism about our daughter’s blue badge entitlement makes it harder for us to go out and means we’re more isolated,” she said. “It’s a case of working out if I’m strong enough on the day to deal with [it].” “I feel like all the latest stories about [disability benefits and entitlements] have encouraged others to confront people with blue badges who don’t fit what’s typically seen as disabled,” said Sarah, 41, from North Yorkshire, who uses crutches due to osteoarthritis and is waiting on a double knee replacement. “People do get in my face and they are aggressive. I’ve had people try to take my crutches off me, saying I don’t need them.” Sarah said she had been accused again last week of faking her disability, when she used a blue badge at the supermarket. “I showed the security guard the back with my picture on but the person making the claim followed me around [as I tried to shop] saying I’m too young to be disabled or that I have both legs and I’m not in a wheelchair,” she said. The increasing harassment means Sarah rarely leaves the house now. “I’m scared someone may actually attack me,” she said. Sally*, in the West Midlands, said: “People are more prone to jump to conclusions about the badge use [now], assuming we’re grifters.” Sally is a carer for her son, Russell*, 26, who holds a blue badge but can’t drive due to epilepsy, dyspraxia and severe fatigue. Being challenged by the public was a “jeopardy” they always had to keep in mind, she says. “Just the other day, I was putting the badge into the holder at the front of the car, when this man walked over and stood peering at the window at the badge, not realising it was for my son. It was intimidating.” These encounters are so distressing for Russell that he often asks to stop their trip out and go home. “My son will say: ‘Oh, Mum, I’m really sorry. It’s all because of me.’ And I say to him: ‘No, it’s because of them.’ “My son looks fit, but he isn’t. Invisible disability is frequently questioned,” she said. “I feel quite worried about his safety, to be honest.” *Some names have been changed Additional reporting by Jane Clinton

New Zealand officials reject ‘comfort women’ statue after objections from Japan

New Zealand officials rejected on Wednesday an application to install a statue commemorating so-called “comfort women” enslaved by Japan before and during the second world war after Tokyo suggested it could harm diplomatic relations. Japan forced up to 200,000 women from Korea, China and south-east Asia into sexual slavery from 1932 until 1945 and the issue remains a sore point in Tokyo’s relations with its neighbours. The Korean Garden Trust had sought to install a statue honouring the survivors at Barry’s Point reserve in the Auckland suburb of Takapuna. But after public consultation the local council declined an application to install the statue. “This was a difficult decision, and one we did not make lightly,” the council’s board chair Trish Deans said. “We carefully considered staff advice and the feedback received from the community through a formal consultation process.” Among the submissions was a letter from the Japanese ambassador to New Zealand, Makoto Osawa, which claimed it could “cause division and conflict within New Zealand’s wonderful multi-ethnic and multicultural society and between Japanese and Korean communities”. Wellington’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said the Japanese government had made “formal representations” about the proposed statue. Deans said many submitters had supported the statue as an opportunity to learn and reflect on what happened during the war. “We recognise the significance of the history the statue represents, and we acknowledge the survivors whose stories it seeks to honour.” Some historians say as many as 200,000 women – mostly from Korea, but also China, south-east Asian, as well as a small number from Japan and Europe – were forced or tricked into working in military brothels between 1932 and 1945. They were euphemistically referred to as “comfort women” – a term Japan continues to use, despite survivors having taken issue with the label. The women were forced to have sex with Japanese soldiers in frontline, makeshift brothels. According to testimony from surviving women, they were forced to have sex with 10 to 30 men a day. Forced abortions were commonplace. The relationship between Japan and South Korea has become strained since the first survivor went public with her story in the early 1990s. The first “peace statue” honouring the women was erected in Seoul in 2011. Since then dozens more have been erected overseas, prompting Japan to call for their removal. In 2018, Osaka ended its 60-year “sister city” relationship with San Francisco after the city agreed to recognise a similar statue. In 2020, Japan reacted angrily to statues in South Korea that appeared to depict the former Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, prostrating himself before a young woman. In 2025, a peace statue was removed from Berlin, after a years-long dispute. Japan insists the “comfort women” issue was settled “finally and irreversibly” by a 2015 agreement reached by Abe – who agreed to provide 1bn yen (US$9m) in “humanitarian” funds to a foundation set up to support the survivors – and then-South Korean president Park Geun-hye, who agreed not to raise the issue in international forums. Park’s liberal successor, Moon Jae-in, effectively dissolved the fund in 2018, saying it did not take into account the feelings of survivors and the South Korean public. Successive Japanese administrations have refused to provide official recompense, insisting that all compensation claims were settled under a 1965 bilateral peace treaty. The proposal for Auckland’s statue received 672 submissions, with 51% of individuals strongly opposing it, and 13 out of 21 organisations also against it, according to the council. With Agency France-Presse

‘It will never cover what’s authentic’: African music industry weighs up AI risks and rewards

Last July, the Nigerian singer-songwriter Fave found herself caught up in a viral moment: an unauthorised version of a track featuring an AI choir had been released, quickly becoming an internet sensation. To get ahead of the situation, she recorded her own remix that integrated the AI-assisted song and added it to her discography. “In my view, [that] was smart and very business aware,” Oyinkansola Fawehinmi, a Lagos-based entertainment lawyer, observed a few months later. “She essentially reclaimed the ‘AI version’ and released it as her own official expression.” Many of Africa’s music markets are seen as particularly vulnerable to the threat of AI-generated music plagiarising the work of real-life artists, due to comparatively weak legal frameworks around intellectual property protection. There are similar fears over the wider deepfake market. On Monday, South Africa withdrew the draft of its national AI policy after revelations, ironically, of AI-generated citations within it. AI was the focus of the Atlantic Music Expo held this month in Cape Verde, one of the few African states with a dedicated AI policy. Benito Lopes, the expo’s director since 2024, said the discussions were meant to give performers “more knowledge to explore [AI] the best way without losing their human identity and their creativity”. For the country’s culture minister, Augusto Jorge de Albuquerque Veiga, who has a goal of making Cape Verde “a hub of world culture, especially in music”, the priority is ensuring local artists get the financial support to eke out a living in today’s world. “You have to work with it, not to be eaten by it,” Veiga told the Guardian. “I think that AI will never cover what’s authentic … AI is the present already, so we have to discuss this and find ways to work with AI for the country, for the culture and for the future.” Given that the culture ministry’s budget, at $6m, is less than 1% of the national budget, Veiga has been lobbying to get allocations to the sector from Cape Verde’s tourism tax and has created diaspora bonds targeting the large diaspora spread across places such as Boston and Lisbon. The expo, which precedes the Kriol jazz festival, has long sought to be a bridge between Africa, Europe and the Americas but also emphasises the place of live music and human interaction in an era of synthetic sounds. The veteran Bissau-Guinean singer Patche di Rima, who performed on the last day, said: “I am glad to be here … an artist without media and networking is nothing.” Most delegates highlighted how AI-driven tools for mixing, mastering and data-driven marketing offered a way for indie artists with shoestring budgets to compete globally. Entrepreneurs working in the sector were keen to stress that AI was not a replacement for talent. José Moura, a co-founder of Sona, an AI startup that helps artists use text prompts to polish songs, said the technology could empower artists in the global south to extend their reach without compromising the uniqueness of the music. “Homogenisation happens when the tool doesn’t know where you’re from,” he said. “Unlike conventional AI that trains on global averages, Sona is built on local music, governed by local artists, so when it amplifies your sound, it amplifies exactly what makes it yours. It’s the opposite of erasure … artists decide what gets preserved before the AI touches anything.” Sambaiana, a seven-woman ensemble from Brazil, gave their first performance outside their home country at the expo. For the group – a rarity in the male-dominated samba genre – it was a chance to plug in to a new but familiar world. “We feel honoured to represent the Brazilian music style,” said Ju Moraes, the lead singer. “We recognise ourselves here, the energy, the people, the culture and even the architectures are very similar to Bahia.” Rayra Mayara, a vocalist who also plays the four-stringed cavaquinho, said technology was no match for the emotion of being on stage. “We are seven women and no technology can substitute the feeling we give when we play, sing and talk about our daily lives,” she said. “AI can complement the production process but it is not as a substitute to the human.”

Marxists and monarchists: the group hoping to unite Iran’s exiled opposition

“It’s an exercise that is necessary and frankly has been missing for the past 47 years,” said Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani, a founding member of a new group seeking to act as an umbrella for Iran’s disparate exiled opposition. The Iran Freedom Congress – which includes republicans and monarchists, Marxists, right and centre – met for the first time last month in London, aiming to create an ethnically diverse “platform for coordination, dialogue, and cooperation between Iranian pro-democracy and pluralist individuals, parties, institutions, and organisations”. Since the conference, the body has been given a legal entity, and elections for a chief executive are under way. It does not claim to be a government in waiting, or a new political party. “We cannot claim from exile to return after 47 years and run a country which is by and large foreign to those that have not been there for 50 years,” said Youssefiani, who until 2018 was an adviser to Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former shah. “The patronage or help must come to those inside Iran who are capable of moving the needle.” He said the group had a “responsibility to break out of the classic pitfalls of exile politics by creating a pluralist movement to help the democratic forces inside the country”. The bloody crackdown on anti-regime protests at the start of this year was the catalyst for many of its now members. “After the shock of thousands [being] slaughtered in January … the moment came when we said: ‘Enough is enough,’” Youssefiani said. “At the time the threat of war was looming. We just saw our boys and girls killed and we equally share the blame, or the shame of this. For too long there was a lack of imagination, there was only classic exile politics, an inability to get along. It was a terrible failure.” Funding for the group has largely come from Majid Zamani, the founder of investment company Kian Capital, who was previously jailed in Iran for his support of the Green Movement in 2009. Former political prisoners and longstanding opposition intellectuals have all been involved. The political breadth of the congress can either be seen as mature pluralism or a source of incoherence. The group rejected sending an invitation to Pahlavi – and, due to divisions, decided to take no position on the US-Israeli attack. Middle East Eye published emails showing pro-Israeli lobbyists were active around the group, unknown to the organisers, and Youssefiani works for the Middle East Forum, an Israeli-sympathetic thinktank in Washington. The congress has to navigate between the movement surrounding Pahlavi, which sees him as a future leader, and the rhetoric and actions of the US president, Donald Trump. “Arms will not bring democratic change, as we have seen, and we worry about what is the end goal of the war,” said Youssefian. “No one has defined what is peace, and this is where our problem is. Personally I am enormously concerned by the war, since the outcome was not thought through. There were those that thought they could chop off the head of the snake, and all would fall into place, but that misunderstands Iran.” He said Trump’s threat that a “whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again” was disastrous in that it forced the people closer to a regime they despised. “When 90 million Iranians hear these words, they see them as a threat to their existence, not to their government,” he said. The sight of some in the diaspora celebrating the bombing had caused incalculable political damage, he added. “The war has gone on so long we worry the impact on civil society – that campaign of civil disobedience – has been severely crippled,” he said. “So if the regime survives, there may be no appetite for reform, or the regime will have no choice but to use the heavy hand of repression. One thing is for sure: there has been no regime change.” Youssefian said he was not ruling out any outcome in Iran so long as it was democratically reached. However, he clearly feels concerned with the brand of Pahlavi, his former colleague, and the way in which the monarchist movement has been positioned, saying Pahlavi had neglected strategic nuance while some of his followers had displayed a “blind acceptance” of Trumpian rhetoric. “One assumed, when Pahlavi offered with great confidence that more than 100,000 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and uniformed asset had defected to him and would rise up, he offered hope and confidence to Iranians inside Iran,” he said. “I remain devastated not to have seen any evidence of that, and so thousands of mourning families, if not already, will ask: what went wrong? Who misinformed whom? “I cannot know the answer because I don’t know the details. And yes, it’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, but every word of advice, position and tweet of a sovereign matters.” Will the regime crumble if the pressure continues? “The difficulty in Iran today is that those who own and control the guns also own and control the butter,” said Youssefian. “The IRGC own and control billion-dollar enterprises. If there is a defeat, these people are not going to go to Paris or London. Their wealth, power and assets and their ideology is deeply rooted in Iran’s ground.” He said regime change would require the regime to have lost legitimacy, the repression machine to weaken and an inclusive plural movement inside Iran to emerge that could credibly replace the regime. “All we can do is help in this process.”

From Jakarta to Manila, south-east Asia turns to Russia to plug fuel, fertiliser gaps caused by Iran war

The European Union has sounded the alarm to countries in south-east Asia, urging them not to turn to Russia for oil supplies as they try to cope with widespread fuel shortages caused by the Middle East conflict. After meeting foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast ‌Asian ⁠Nations (Asean) in Brunei on Tuesday, the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called on the region to see the “big picture”, saying the purchase of Russian oil would enable the country to continue the Ukraine war. But across the region, which relies heavily on the Middle East for energy and fertiliser, those warnings appear to be falling on deaf ears, as countries line up to do deals with Moscow. Indonesia announced last week it will import up to 150m barrels of Russian crude, after President Prabowo Subianto met Vladimir ⁠Putin in Moscow. The Philippines, a US ally, received its first shipment of Russian crude oil in five years in March. Thailand is reportedly negotiating with Russia to buy fertiliser, while Vietnam signed a deal with Russia before the war to build a nuclear power plant, an agreement that has now taken on greater urgency. For Russia, the crisis has already delivered a windfall. Soaring energy prices and a temporary waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil at sea, has provided multi-billion dollar profits, and buttressed its claims that western attempts to isolate it internationally have failed. The flurry of deals has also prompted questions about whether the Middle East conflict might provide an opening for Russia to deepen its ties across south-east Asia. From Jakarta to Hanoi, polling suggests Russia and its leader are generally favourably viewed. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has had limited impact on public opinion, surveys suggests. A 2024 poll published by the Economist found that for two countries in the region – Indonesia and Vietnam – more than 50% of respondents wanted Russia to win the war. A 2025 Pew Research Center survey found 64% of Indonesians held a favourable view of Russia, compared with 48% for the US. “Putin is seen as the strong man standing up to the west, and a defender of traditional values. That macho image goes down pretty well in a lot of countries in the region,” said Ian Storey, from Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, who has researched the Kremlin’s pivot to the region. Russia has longstanding ties with communist-run countries such as Vietnam and Laos. It is also seen as a Muslim-friendly country, because of its support for Palestine, said Storey, who added that the Chechnyan wars, and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, have been largely forgotten. Lacking the same economic and military clout of the US and China, however, analysts say there are limits to Russia’s ability to broaden its influence in the region. Russia’s increased dependence on China has the potential to give some countries that have maritime disputes with China pause, particularly when it comes to military procurement. The US decision to pause sanctions on Russian oil shipments was introduced in March in an effort to increase the supply in the global market. The waiver was extended for 30 days in mid-April after pressure on Washington from Asian countries such as the Philippines and India. Whether the US chooses to extend it again could affect many Asian countries appetite to continue buying Russian oil. But nuclear energy is one area where Russia might hope to make inroads. “This crisis has made countries reassess their relations with other countries and recalibrate. And they’ll be looking at things like energy sovereignty, diversification, and renewables,” said Storey. Russia, a major player in the global nuclear power industry, has already signed contracts with Myanmar and Vietnam for the provision of nuclear power. However, there are other countries competing with Moscow for such partnerships. Ultimately, the Middle East war has given Russia the opportunity to “promote itself as a reliable and stable partner of south-east Asia, particularly when it comes to food and energy security,” said Storey. Recent energy deals carry symbolic importance for both sides. For Indonesia, such agreements underline a policy of non-alignment. “Indonesia wants affirmation of status from Moscow and send a signal to the western world and to the US that it won’t do its bidding,” said professor Leszek Buszynski of the Australian National University’s strategic and defence studies centre. They also serve to counter domestic criticism of policies that have lent further toward the US, including president Prabowo’s controversial decision to join Trump’s Board of Peace. Russia, in turn, values Indonesia’s voice in international forums – such as the UN, G20, and Brics – where it has supported the narrative that the war in Ukraine is “the western world’s problem”, Buszynski said. A joint commemorative summit will be held between Russia and Asean in Kazan in June to mark 35 years of relations. Even if nothing substantial is agreed, adds Storey, it will provide proof that Russia still has friends abroad: “It’s essentially a huge photo opportunity for Putin.”