Thursday briefing: What Israel’s new move to seize ‘large areas’ of Gaza means for the conflict
Good morning. On Tuesday, Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, announced a major expansion of attacks on Gaza and the “capture of large areas that will be added to the security zones of the state of Israel”. The announcement followed a night of airstrikes on Khan Younis and Rafah in southern Gaza, which officials said had killed at least 21 people, including a pregnant woman. The intensification of Israel’s offensive comes after more than two weeks of airstrikes and ground operations that have, according to Gaza’s health ministry, killed more than 900 people. Unicef has said that at least 322 of those killed since the renewed attacks have been children. Earlier this week 15 bodies of Palestinian paramedics and rescue workers, killed by Israeli forces and buried in a mass grave, were discovered. According to witnesses, some victims were found with their hands or legs bound and had gunshot wounds to the head and chest. For today’s newsletter, I spoke with the Guardian’s international security correspondent, Jason Burke, who has reported on the war since its beginning, about Katz’s announcements and what they mean for Gaza’s future. That’s right after the headlines. Five big stories UK economy | Donald Trump has hit the UK with tariffs of 10% on exports to the US as he ignited a global trade war. Other tariffs include 20% on the EU and 34% on China. Downing Street had been expecting 20% but Keir Starmer’s conciliation towards the Trump administration appeared to have paid off. Immigration | An investigation has been launched after a racist message was reportedly “blasted out” on portable radios used by Home Office contractors at an asylum processing centre. The deeply offensive broadcast – “fuck off you [N-word]s, go back to where you came from” – was reportedly heard at the Manston processing site for small boat arrivals in Kent. Health | Doctors have reported a rise in the number of patients with Victorian diseases such as scabies, as the Royal College of Physicians urged the government to do more to fight poverty. UK news | A third former South Yorkshire police officer has been arrested as part of an investigation into child sexual exploitation in Rotherham. The ex-constable, aged in his 50s, was arrested on Monday on suspicion of raping a teenage girl in the town in 2004. Education | The fate of boys “is a defining issue of our time”, according to the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, as she calls for more men to become teachers to combat “toxic” behaviours. In depth: ‘Authorities who imagine they can eradicate Hamas through force are wrong’
Last week, the Israeli military issued evacuation orders for people in Rafah and a stretch of land extending north towards Khan Younis, directing them to al-Mawasi – an area on the coast that Israel once designated a humanitarian zone but which has been bombed more than 100 times between May and January, according to the BBC. Other orders forced tens of thousands across the north of Gaza to move. Many have only just returned to their former homes, most of which are in ruins. The Gaza health ministry now puts the number of people killed by the Israeli offensive at more than 50,000, mostly civilians. In January the Lancet medical journal published a report that estimated that the death toll during the first nine months of war was approximately 40% higher. International agencies estimate that at least 110,000 people have been injured, often very seriously. The war was triggered by a Hamas surprise attack into southern Israel that killed 1,200, also mostly civilians, and led to 251 being taken hostage, of whom 59 remain in Gaza. *** Capturing territory “The language expressing a definite interest in taking control of territory, without giving any kind of timeline, feels much more explicit now and that’s a change,” Jason says. Throughout the war, some observers have warned that Israel’s offensive in Gaza could lead to annexation or resettlement. Israeli officials have previously avoided explicit statements about seizing territory in Gaza. One reason was undoubtedly pressure from the Biden administration, which insisted that Israel should not reoccupy Gaza after the conflict. However, things have changed following Donald Trump’s proposal to reconstruct Gaza as “the Riviera of the Middle East”, after displacing the Palestinian population to Egypt and Jordan. This prompted a warning against ethnic cleansing from the UN secretary general, António Guterres, but appears to have emboldened Israeli authorities, which threatened last month to annex parts of the devastated territory. According to the Israeli rights group Gisha, Israel has already taken control of around 62 square kilometres (approximately 17%) of Gaza as part of a buffer zone along its edges. In a video statement that was published on Wednesday evening, the Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces would capture a “second Philadelphi route”, referring to the narrow Israeli-held corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border. “[By] dividing up the strip, we are adding pressure step by step, so that our hostages will be given to us,” Netanyahu added. It is still not clear how much more land Israel wants to capture. “Of course territory could be seized simply to put pressure on Hamas during ongoing negotiations over a new ceasefire and hostage release deal, or used as a bargaining chip in any deal, or to carve out a very wide buffer zone but a lot of observers suspect other motives,” Jason says. *** What does this mean long-term?
Any seizure of land is potentially part of a broader, long-term ideological project of the Israeli right, particularly the far right, which wants the reoccupation of Gaza, the re-establishment of settlements and the displacement of the Palestinian population. Once dismissed as an Israeli fringe fantasy, this project has become far more plausible following Trump’s announcement of his plan for Gaza. Since then, Israeli authorities have approved a scheme to facilitate what they call “a voluntary transfer for Gaza residents who express interest in moving to third countries”, creating a bureau to oversee it. Legal experts are clear that under any reasonable interpretation of international law, any emigration in current circumstances from Gaza would be unlawful and constitutes ethnic cleansing. Many Palestinians have also made it clear that they are determined to stay and reject any proposals involving resettlement. Since the first phase of the ceasefire that was agreed in January ended at the beginning of March, Israel has blocked all humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. Israeli authorities claim this is because Hamas is diverting aid for its own benefit, which Hamas denies. Israel then cut off remaining electricity supplies, forcing the closure of a water desalination plant and so depriving more than 600,000 people of clean water. The UN World Food Programme has warned its supply of hot meals will last for no more than two weeks, adding that all bakeries have been forced to shut down due to a lack of fuel and flour. “If parts of the Israeli government and the extreme right more generally want to see ‘voluntary emigration’ from Gaza, making it unliveable is a good way to advance that project,” Jason says. *** Pressuring Hamas Negotiations are ongoing but there is a massive gap between Hamas and Israel, Jason says. Hamas wants the previous ceasefire deal upheld, with a second phase that would end the war but allow Hamas to remain effectively in power in Gaza. Israel wants any pause to be temporary, and is offering a couple of months or so of ceasefire. This makes the imminent cessation of hostilities unlikely. “It has to be said that Hamas has sustained massive losses,” Jason continues. “It has few cards to play in any negotiations, other than the hostages and international public opinion. The only international public opinion that can influence Israel is the opinion of one individual, and that is the occupant of the Oval Office.” Currently that occupant has seemingly given Netanyahu a blank cheque, and this is not universally popular in Israel. Families of hostages have expressed their dismay at the expansion of the attacks, asking whether their loved ones were being sacrificed for the sake of territorial gains and expressing concern that the mission of returning their relatives had been pushed to the bottom of the government’s priorities. A recent poll indicated broad Israeli support for a ceasefire deal that returns the hostages in exchange for IDF withdrawal from Gaza. “But the numbers who believe there should just be a ceasefire deal – Israeli withdrawal and Hamas stays there with its weapons – are really small,” says Jason. In the absence of a political plan for the administration of Gaza, “a vacuum will inevitably emerge, which Hamas or a successor organisation will fill”, he adds. “Israeli authorities who imagine they can eradicate Hamas in Gaza purely through sustained military force are wrong.” What else we’ve been reading
Rafael Behr has a strong, simple warning to Keir Starmer in his latest column: “Labour MPs are justified in worrying that their time in government is being squandered and they will end up being remembered for all the things they failed to do.” Charlie Lindlar, acting deputy editor, newsletters It’s the moment we’ve all been waiting for (probably): voting is open on the Guardian’s invertebrate of the year competition. Exercise your democratic right to pick your favourite bug. Nimo Peter Bradshaw nails it in his tribute to Val Kilmer, who died this week at 65. He was a “terrific screen presence” and “ethereally handsome” actor who never quite became the leading man he could have been, yet who “in his autumn years, and all too briefly, showed us his real star quality”. Charlie Calling people illegal immigrants is not just dehumanising, it is also factually inaccurate, writes Mehdi Hasan. Hasan then asks why progressives are not making this argument more forcefully. Nimo In this week’s games newsletter, Keith Stuart breaks down everything you need to know about the Nintendo Switch 2, which was officially unveiled yesterday. Top line? No one does “joy” like Nintendo. Charlie Sport
Football | Diogo Jota scored the only goal of the game as Liverpool won a feisty and hard-fought Merseyside derby against Everton to go 12 points clear at the top. Marcus Rashford struck his third goal in two matches as Aston Villa boosted their Champions League hopes with a 3-0 win over Brighton. More Premier League reports Football | Reading have had a potentially significant setback in their attempt to save the club by agreeing a sale this week, with Rob Couhig rejecting a proposal from the owner, Dai Yongge, to lift his security over the Select Car Leasing Stadium and training ground. Basketball | The sports minister, Stephanie Peacock, has asked the government body responsible for elite funding, UK Sport, to investigate allegations of unlawful tender made against the British Basketball Federation. On Wednesday, the BBF signed a 15-year agreement with an American consortium to operate a new men’s professional league from 2026. The front pages
“Trump hits UK with 10% tariffs as US ignites global trade war” says the Guardian while the Times has “Trump piles on the tariffs”. “Trump triggers $1 trillion global trade war – in threat to UK jobs and wages” – that’s the i and the Daily Mail announces “Trump’s tariff war on ‘foreign scavengers’”. We’re “Trading blows” in the Daily Mirror as the “World faces economic war”. “Trump unleashes tariffs” is the splash headline in the Telegraph. The Express sees it as a win for vote leave: “Brexit Britain escapes worst of Trump tariffs pain”. In other news the Metro runs with “Heathrow ‘had two fire warnings’”. The top story on page one of the Financial Times is “UK plan for joint European fund to help finance continent’s rearmament”. We have one of our occasional roundups today where you can see all these front pages. Today in Focus
How will Myanmar’s earthquake impact the civil war? Myanmar’s military junta has been losing territory for months. Will the earthquake and a new ceasefire help it turn the tide? Rebecca Ratcliffe reports Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Over five years, the photographer Spandita Malik travelled throughout India, meeting women who have survived gender-based violence. The resulting project, Nā́rī, includes artworks made in collaboration with some of the women she photographed. For this image of Praween Devi, for instance, she asked her subject to alter the image through embroidery. As Malik explains: “When she embroidered the portrait in phulkari, a traditional craft originally from the Punjab region, she didn’t remove the photograph of the men but instead inserted three women – figures draped in pink and green, mirroring her own clothing.” Her goal, Malik says, is to “disrupt the traditional power dynamics of documentary photography” by putting creative control in the hands of her subjects. “The act of embroidery becomes an extension of their voice, a reassertion of agency in a world that often silences them. Through Nā́rī, I aim to amplify their stories of survival and resilience – one stitch at a time.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply