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Middle East crisis live: Netanyahu says Israel acted alone in Iran gasfield strike and denies ‘dragging’ US into war

Oil prices could climb beyond $180 per barrel if the US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt energy supplies until late April, Saudi officials project, the Wall Street Journal reports. That is the “base case” in Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the Gulf, according to the Journal, which cites several unnamed oil officials in the country. Oil prices have already soared to their highest levels in four years since the start of the conflict, which has sparked fears of energy shortages across the world. Brent crude, the international benchmark, is currently trading at $105.81 per barrel.

China has been preparing for a global energy crisis for years. It is paying off now

Xi Jinping has been preparing for a crisis like this for years. China must secure its energy supply “in its own hands”, its president was reported to have said during a visit to one of its vast oilfields in 2021. The US-Israel war on Iran plunged the Middle East into a deep conflict, with the strait of Hormuz – one of the most important waterways in global trade – all but closed and key energy facilities across the region under attack. Oil exports from the Middle East have tumbled 61% over recent weeks, according to maritime tracking consultancy Kpler – roiling countries across Asia, which relied on the region for 59% of its crude imports in 2025, and have been left racing to conserve energy. But China, the world’s second-largest economy, appears to be in a very different position to much of the continent. Its energy system has “significant buffers”, Michal Meidan, the head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, an independent research institute, explained in a recent paper – from huge reserves of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to a robust domestic supply, including alternative energy sources, such as wind and solar. China, which usually imports around half its crude supplies from the Middle East, is not as exposed as other Asian economies. “While a very high proportion, it is limited when compared to Japan, India or Korea,” said Meidan. Japan, for example, sources about 95% of its oil imports from the region. Iran has continued to ship to China, the primary buyer of its oil, despite the war. China’s imports of Iranian crude have slipped only marginally, according to Kpler estimates, from 1.57m barrels per day in February to 1.47m barrels per day in March. Chinese vessels operated by state-owned firms are meanwhile working to navigate the broader region. The Kai Jing supertanker diverted to pick up Saudi crude at a Red Sea port earlier this month, Chinese media outlet Caixin reported, and is set to dock in China in early April. And even if Beijing is forced to confront an overseas supply crunch, it has quietly amassed an extraordinary hoard to mitigate the ramifications of a major shock. Beijing does not disclose the size of its oil reserves, and estimates vary significantly. But it is widely agreed to be sitting on a massive stockpile: about 1.4bn barrels, according to Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. After the war began, Beijing instructed its own refineries to stop exports. At the same time, the Chinese state has sought to reduce its economic reliance on fossil fuels. More electric and hybrid vehicles are sold inside China each year than across the rest of the world, according to the International Energy Agency. Its renewable sources of power have meanwhile expanded rapidly in recent years, curbing its dependance on fossil fuels. Energy thinktank Ember estimates that wind, solar and hydropower generated about 31% of China’s electricity in 2024. But the longer this crisis drags on, the more complicated – and painful – it becomes. No country is immune. Energy stockpile releases are “easier said than done”, according to Meidan, who said the mechanism for China’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) has been tested only once. “While another, larger, SPR release is not impossible, it would likely require a protracted supply shortage and a significant price spike.” Independent refiners in China – the biggest importers of Iranian crude – are the most vulnerable, even as they turn to Russia. Industrial and chemical sectors reliant on LNG also face the prospect of higher prices and supply shortfalls. “While a short disruption could be manageable, the prospect of lengthy disruptions and the associated price increases are raising alarm bells in Beijing,” said Meidan. China is better placed than most to navigate the economic dangers thrown up by the US-Israel war on Iran. But its energy supply is not, despite Xi’s vision, entirely in its own hands. Should weeks turn into months, and if the global energy market continues to creak, its resilience will be tested, just like the rest of the world.

Ukraine war briefing: EU president von der Leyen vows to pay loan to Kyiv despite block by Hungary

The EU will find ways to pay out the promised €90bn ($104.2bn) loan to Ukraine despite Hungary’s ongoing resistance, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said early on Friday. “We will deliver one way or the other,” von der Leyen told reporters after a summit in Brussels, where EU leaders failed to convince Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán to lift his blockade on the vital EU loan to Ukraine. EU leaders earlier failed to persuade Orbán to lift his block on a massive loan to support Ukraine’s war effort at summit talks on Thursday, leaving the much-needed funding in limbo. Moscow’s closest partner in the bloc, the nationalist prime minister has long resisted helping Kyiv to repel Russia’s invasion, stalling EU aid and repeated rounds of sanctions. The Kremlin said on Thursday that talks between Washington, Moscow and Kyiv on ending the war in Ukraine were on “situational pause” after the start of the Iran war, but Ukraine’s president said new discussions were expected this weekend. Ukrainian and US negotiators will meet in the United States on Saturday in a bid to revive stalled talks on Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko on Thursday ordered the release of 250 political prisoners as part of a deal with Washington that lifted some US sanctions, the latest step in the isolated leader’s effort to improve ties with the West. Lukashenko pardoned the prisoners after meeting with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, in the Belarus capital of Minsk. International Monetary Fund staff are in Kyiv this week to meet with Ukrainian authorities about how they plan to meet their commitments under a new $8.1bn lending program approved last month, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday. Kozack said IMF staff would also meet with members of the Ukrainian parliament to discuss fiscal reforms and tax changes required under the IMF program. A pro-Kremlin figure who unexpectedly denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine in a social media post this week that went viral has been placed in a psychiatric facility, the hospital said on Thursday. Ilya Remeslo made a career denouncing Putin’s critics until he became one himself, posting a manifesto late on Tuesday to his 90,000 followers on Telegram entitled: “Five reasons why I stopped supporting Vladimir Putin.” As Russia’s war rages on in Ukraine, the Red Cross said Thursday it was facilitating the exchange of about 1,000 bodies each month between the sides, while “thousands and thousands” of dead remain unidentified. Just back from a visit to Ukraine, International Committee of the Red Cross director-general Pierre Krahenbuhl said he was struck by “the scale and the scope of the consequences when these military means are deployed between states”.

Viktor Orbán refuses to agree to €90bn loan for Ukraine as EU leaders accuse him of betrayal

EU leaders fumed after Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, refused to drop his opposition to a vital €90bn (£78bn) loan for Ukraine, accusing him of betrayal and acting in bad faith. German chancellor Friedrich Merz described Orbán’s U-turn on the loan Hungary had agreed to in December as “a gross act of disloyalty” adding: “I am firmly convinced that it will leave deep marks.” Speaking after an EU summit in Brussels, Merz said EU leaders had asked the European Commission to find ways to pay out the €90bn loan despite Hungary’s opposition. The commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, did not elaborate on possible workarounds, telling reporters: “The loan remains blocked because one leader is not honouring his word. But let me reiterate ... we will deliver one way or the other.” In an unusual sign of public anger on Thursday, leaders made plain their frustrations with Orbán, who refused to sign off on the loan agreed last year because of a dispute with Kyiv over a damaged oil pipeline. The European Council president António Costa, who chaired the summit, told reporters European leaders took the floor to condemn Orbán’s attitude, adding: “Nobody can blackmail the European institutions.” Hours earlier, arriving at the summit, Kaja Kallas, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, said she was not optimistic about a solution before the Hungarian elections on 12 April, when Orbán faces the most serious challenge to his 16-year rule. Hungary had agreed to the loan and was now “taking [its] agreement back”, Kallas said, adding that Orbán was not acting in good faith, a foundational principle of the EU treaty. “The question for us is how can we really force the implementation of the agreement we made in December?” she said. Orbán and his ally Robert Fico, Slovakia’s prime minister, refused to sign a European Council statement “look[ing] forward” to the release of funds for Ukraine. By the mid afternoon it was clear Orbán was not going to budge. Two EU sources said they did not expect a shift from Hungary at the summit. “Orbán didn’t move in the Ukraine session,” said one. EU leaders agreed in December that 24 member states would take out a €90bn loan for urgently needed military aid and government support for Ukraine. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic approved the idea with the crucial caveat that they did not have to contribute to the loan. It was a hard-fought plan B after an alternative option of tapping Russia’s frozen assets for the funding failed to win the required unanimity. Orbán’s reneging on his agreement has infuriated EU leaders because it undermines EU decision-making at a moment when Ukraine is running out of money. EU officials want the first tranches of cash to be available to Kyiv from early April. Petteri Orpo, Finland’s prime minister, said Orbán was using Ukraine “as a weapon” in his election campaign, adding: “I think that he betrayed us and we need to find a solution how to go forward.” Bart De Wever, the prime minister of Belgium, who blocked the option to freeze Russia’s assets, played a central role in orchestrating the loan deal, including negotiating with Orbán. He said: “It’s unacceptable to decide with the leaders and then after say: ‘But I’m not ready to execute what I decided.’” António Costa, the European Council president, told leaders – in Orbán’s presence – that Hungary’s behaviour was “unacceptable”, according to an EU official. Costa used the same word to describe comments by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, who, while speaking about Orbán, said he would “give this person’s address to our armed forces”. The remark prompted a rare rebuke from EU officials. Arriving at the summit, Orbán showed no sign of compromise. He said: “We would like to get the oil which is ours from the Ukrainians and which is … blocked by the Ukrainians. I will never support any kind of decision here which is in favour of Ukraine [as long as] the Hungarians are not able to get the oil which belongs to us.” The dispute centres on the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, which brings Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukraine. Ukraine said the pipeline had been damaged in a Russian air attack, but Orbán has accused Kyiv of stalling on repairs. Hungary and Slovakia’s Kremlin-friendly governments are also blocking the EU’s 20th package of sanctions against Russia, which was meant to have been agreed by the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine last month. The EU statement, adopted by 25 member states on Thursday, calls for the “swift adoption” of that package and further pressure on Russia. This week Zelenskyy agreed to accept EU financial and technical support to repair the pipeline. But the decision does not appear to have swayed Orbán, who is running an anti-Ukraine, anti-EU election campaign. It depicts his centre-right opponent, Péter Magyar, as an agent of Brussels and Kyiv, who wants to drag Hungary into the war in Ukraine. Arriving at his first EU summit as prime minister of the Netherlands, Rob Jetten said: “It is obvious that Ukraine needs our full support to win this war against Russian aggression. There has been decision-making here on the European level so I expect everyone to respect that.” Zelenskyy, who addressed the leaders via video link, said before the summit he hoped the EU would stand by its promise. “We are really counting on the countries and the EU to find ways to resolve this issue,” he said on Wednesday. The Ukrainian president told EU leaders this week that Ukraine was “undertaking all possible efforts to repair the damage and restore operations” to the pipeline. Hungary and Slovakia are the only two EU countries that benefit from Druzhba, having secured a temporary exemption from the EU’s import ban on Russian oil, introduced after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The summit in Brussels was meant to be dedicated to fine-tuning a long-term agenda to revitalise Europe’s waning competitiveness against the US and China. But it has been overshadowed by the dispute with Hungary and the war in the Middle East, which has sent energy prices soaring and increased the strain on the transatlantic relationship.

EU leaders vow to support Cyprus in talks over future of British bases

EU leaders have pledged to stand behind Cyprus as it seeks “an open and frank discussion” on the future of the British bases on the island, which have become a target after the outbreak of the latest Middle East crisis. Ahead of an EU summit on Thursday, Cyprus’s president, Nikos Christodoulides, said he wanted “an open and frank discussion with the British government” regarding the status and future of the British bases on the island. He described the bases as “a colonial consequence”, but declined to say whether he wished to see them gone, saying Cyprus had “a clear approach” and would not negotiate publicly. “We have more than 10,000 Cypriot citizens within the British bases; we have responsibility for those people and when the situation is over in the Middle East, we are going to have an open and frank discussion with the British government.” The Akrotiri and Dhekelia bases, comprising 256 sq km (99 sq miles), remained UK sovereign territory when Cyprus became independent in 1960. The British government uses them as training areas and staging posts for operations in the region. As tensions in the Middle East have escalated, Cyprus has been increasingly concerned the presence of the British bases made them a de-facto target for Iran, which has long had fraught relations with the UK. Those fears were realised earlier this month when an unmanned attack drone – said to have been launched by the Iranian proxy Hezbollah from Lebanon – crashed into RAF Akrotiri’s runway on 2 March. Two other drones were intercepted heading in the direction of the base the next day. After Christodoulides’s intervention, EU leaders on Thursday endorsed a text stating firm and unequivocal support for member states closest to the Middle East. “The European Council acknowledges the intention of Cyprus to initiate a discussion with the UK on the UK bases in Cyprus and stands ready to provide assistance as needed.” The language is a victory for Cyprus, which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, as this wording had not featured in earlier drafts. The EU’s eastern-most member state, which is a 20-minute flight away from Lebanon, has not felt supported adequately by the UK. The Royal Navy HMS Destroyer left Portsmouth for the eastern Mediterranean last week, but critics said the UK should have had a warship in the region once it became clear Donald Trump was building up to a potential attack on Iran from late January. France was among the first nations to respond to a Cypriot request for military assistance, deploying air defence systems, a frigate and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the region.

Iran says it will show ‘zero restraint’ if energy infrastructure is targeted again

Iran said on Thursday it would show “zero restraint” if its energy infrastructure was targeted again as Qatar revealed that almost a fifth of its liquefied natural gas export capacity had been knocked out in an Iranian strike that is likely to have a years-long impact. The warning, delivered by the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, followed Israel’s attack on Iran’s massive South Pars gasfield – which it shares with Qatar – which triggered Iranian retaliatory strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas complex and other Gulf neighbours, sending stock markets tumbling globally and triggering sharp increases in gas prices. Ras Laffan supplies about 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Israel also confirmed on Thursday that the Bazan Group refinery in Haifa had been hit and damaged in a claimed Iranian strike. Araghchi said in a post on X: “Our response to Israel’s attack on our infrastructure employed FRACTION of our power. The ONLY reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation. ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again.” Amid warnings of an unprecedented energy crisis, and a growing sense of panic in global capitals, Israeli officials dismissed Donald Trump’s claim that their attack on the gasfield had not been coordinated with Washington, as Trump asked Congress for an additional $200bn (£150bn) to pay for his war. On Thursday Trump recast his denial, saying he had told the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, not to attack Iranian gasfields again, but he appeared unable to explain the logic of how the junior partner in a wartime military alliance had felt able to act unilaterally with such internationally damaging consequences. “I told [Netanyahu] don’t do that, and he won’t do that,” Trump told reporters as he met Japan’s prime minister. “We get along great. It’s coordinated, but on occasion he’ll do something” that the US opposed, he said. Netanyahu, when asked if Israel had told Trump about the attack, told reporters: “Israel acted alone … President Trump asked us to hold off on future attacks and we are.” Trump also suggested he would not send ground troops to Iran, despite the deployment of 2,000 US marines to the region. Reuters had reported he was considering deploying thousands of troops to reinforce the operation in the Middle East. Possible next steps in the campaign against Iran include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the strait could also mean deploying US troops to Iran’s shoreline. Underlying the growing anxiety, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan issued a joint statement expressing “deep concern” about the escalating conflict and calling on Iran to “cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the strait to commercial shipping”, and to comply with a UN security council resolution. They said they were ready “to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait [of Hormuz]”, warning: “The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.” The EU also said that it stood ready to “contribute to all diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and to bring about a lasting solution” to the hostilities, adding that it was remaining vigilant for signs of “migratory flows” from the Middle East into Europe and would “fully mobilise” diplomatic, legal, operational and financial tools to prevent a repeat of the 2015 migration crisis in Europe. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose as much as 10% to $119 a barrel at one point, before slipping back to $110 a barrel, a one-day gain of 3.3%. Crude prices have soared by 60% since the war started on 28 February. European and UK gas prices also jumped, climbing as much as 24% before easing back. They have more than doubled since before the war. Stock markets reeled under a heavy sell-off, with steep falls on Japanese, South Korean and Hong Kong markets bleeding into Europe. The UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 2.35% at 10,063 points, and there were similar falls on Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC. Airlines said the rise in fuel prices would drive up fares and urged passengers to book early. Long-haul airlines such as Air France-KLM and Lufthansa said they would be adding more flights via Asia, as Gulf carriers’ hubs are either shut or operating at a reduced level. With the war at risk of spiralling wildly out of control, Trump and his officials continued to deliver chaotic messaging, even as unnamed Israeli officials were quoted by Reuters as suggesting the gasfield attack was not likely to be repeated. Iranian strikes also hit Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea refinery, located at the end of a pipeline that bypasses the strait of Hormuz, and two Kuwaiti oil refineries. The chief executive of QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, said about $20bn in damage had been done to its facilities and that repairs would sideline 12.8m tons per year of gas for three to five years, threatening supplies to some European countries. “I never in my wildest dreams would have thought that Qatar would be – Qatar and the region – in such an attack, especially from a brotherly Muslim country in the month of Ramadan, attacking us in this way,” al-Kaabi said. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said his country had not ruled out military action in response to the attacks. However, most analysts said there was still a widespread reluctance among Gulf countries, even Saudi Arabia, to entangle themselves in Trump’s conflict. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said in Brussels: “I hope everybody returns to reason,” noting the infrastructure attacks’ potential long-term impact on global markets and calling for a moratorium on such strikes, as well as those on civilians. The insistence by Israeli officials that Trump had been informed of the South Pars attack came amid contradictory messaging from Washington that suggested Trump was seeking a way to distance himself from the latest dangerous Israeli escalation even as he threatened to bomb the field himself. The scramble to find a coherent message extended to key Trump officials, with the US treasury secretary suggesting on Fox that the US lift oil sanctions on some Iranian cargoes already at sea, while the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, delivered his own warning to Iran in bellicose language. “Our objectives, given directly from our America-first president, remain exactly what they were on day one,” Hegseth told reporters. “These are not the media’s objectives, not Iran’s objectives, not new objectives. Our objectives: unchanged, on target and on plan.” He continued: “The world, the Middle East, our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press should be saying one thing to President Trump – thank you. “Thank you for the courage to stop this terror state from holding the world hostage with missiles while building or attempting to build a nuclear bomb. Thank you for doing the work of the free world.” He accused the press of trying to convince the American public that the US was “spinning toward an endless abyss, or a forever war, or a quagmire”. He said: “Nothing could be further from the truth.” Additional reporting by Graeme Wearden

Habermas and the lessons of history | Brief letters

One thing missing from most of the commentaries following the death of Jürgen Habermas (Editorial, 18 March) was his use of the expression “history as a learning process”. That he took the idea seriously was understandable, given that he was born in Germany in 1929, but the sad truth is that politicians keep making the same old mistakes even when the consequences of their actions are staring them in the face. Dr Charles Turner University of Warwick • “Testing of water from Lough Neagh, which has a surface area 26 times bigger than Windermere” (Report, 14 March). I am in Ohio and I don’t know the size of Windermere. I reckon it is about 26 times smaller than Lough Neagh. Mary Jo Hanlon North Royalton, Ohio, US • We are doing our bit to uphold the existence of pointless units of measurement (Letters, 18 March). Every year we have gooseberry shows in the area, in which the fruit is weighed in pennyweights and grains (me neither). Geoff Holman Knutsford, Cheshire • On children’s first fibs (Letters, 16 March), when my third child was two he insisted that his hands weren’t red because he’d been playing with red ink, but because he’d been holding a red asteroid that had fallen from the sky. Elli Woollard London • My sister has never been allowed to forget that when I, as a newborn, suddenly began to cry, she rushed up to my mother and said: “He’s crying for his feed, Mummy. I didn’t bite his toe.” Allan Wilcox Beverley, East Yorkshire • Have an opinion on anything you’ve read in the Guardian today? Please email us your letter and it will be considered for publication in our letters section.