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Middle East crisis live: oil prices fall back sharply as Trump claims Iran war will be over ‘very soon’

New Zealand Covid response among world’s best but ‘scars’ remain, inquiry finds

A royal commission into New Zealand’s Covid response has found it was one of the best in the world but acknowledged the period had left “scars”. The second of two inquiry reports on the pandemic was released on Tuesday and focused on the period between February 2021 to October 2022, when the government changed from an elimination strategy to one of suppression and minimisation of the virus. It also examined vaccine safety and the government’s immunisation programme, lockdowns and tracing and testing technology. The royal commission was established in 2022 by Jacinda Ardern’s Labour-led government, which was in power during the pandemic. New Zealand has recorded 5,641 Covid deaths since 2020. The country’s strict response, which included lockdowns, vaccine mandates and border quarantine helped to save tens of thousands of lives. But as the pandemic wore on, some anger over the restrictions set in and a small but vocal fringe of anti-vaccine and anti-mandate groups emerged, leading to a violent protest on parliament’s lawns. The first phase of the inquiry, released in late 2024, found New Zealand had one of the lowest rates of Covid deaths per capita among developed countries. It largely accepted the need for vaccine mandates, while acknowledging they had caused distress and economic harm to some New Zealanders. In the report released on Tuesday, the commission found that New Zealand did well in responding to the pandemic and the decisions and methods used in the response were “considered and appropriate” but also identified where the response was “lacking”. “New Zealand’s response strategy and settings weren’t always sufficiently responsive to changing circumstances; for example, they weren’t adapted early enough to deal with later variants of the virus,” it said. “At a time when speed was often critical, some decisions had to be made without enough information and data, or without sufficient consideration of all the impacts that might arise, or without important checks and monitoring.” The commission said it heard from many people who expressed pain and anger about the impacts of the pandemic and the response, and there were lessons to be learned from their experiences. “The pandemic, and the response to it, has left scars,” it said. “During the period examined in this phase, people continued to die and others suffered long-term health impacts. Some lost all faith in government and other institutions, and remain disengaged, sceptical or even hostile towards them today.” It said ministers and officials were facing a complex and high-stakes situation and were “doing the best they could”, adding that evidence showed New Zealand had “among one of the best pandemic responses in the world”. But it noted while restrictions such as vaccine mandates were a valid tool for a pandemic response, they should be “treated with great care”. Before listing 24 recommendations, the report noted that its goal was “not to apportion blame but to ensure New Zealand is better informed ahead of the next pandemic”. The commission found that exiting the elimination strategy was difficult, and the lack of a timely update on the strategy meant the response appeared to many to be “over-centralised and risk-averse”. It suggested leaders should present elimination strategies as “temporary from the outset” to help manage public expectations. On the issue of vaccine hesitancy, the commission said the concerns raised were “not grounded in reliable evidence or aligned with scientific consensus”. It suggested governments should continue to be guided by the best scientific evidence and an agency should be tasked with monitoring trust and social cohesion. The health minister, Simeon Brown, said while New Zealanders supported the initial 2020 Covid response, the restrictions continued longer than necessary and the economic costs were not given sufficient weight. “New Zealanders made enormous sacrifices and placed enormous trust in their government. We owe it to them to understand what happened and learn from it.” In a joint statement, Ardern and the former deputy prime minister Grant Robertson said they accepted the findings and recommendations of the commission, RNZ reported. “We got a lot right. More than most. But there are areas that could have been better,” they said. The Labour leader, Chris Hipkins, said the country now needs to strengthen its institutions, public trust and processes to face a future pandemic. “Over the past two years, the government has cut public health capability while commissioning multiple reviews that repeat the same conclusions,” Hipkins said. “National now needs to answer a simple question: are we better prepared for the next pandemic today than we were in 2020?”

Trump says Iran war is ‘very complete, pretty much’ as economic toll rises

Donald Trump has said that the war in Iran is “very complete, pretty much”, as the economic toll of the joint US-Israeli operation has risen, disrupting global oil trade and threatening to engulf the Middle East in a regional war. Trump made the comments before a speech and press conference in Florida where he sought to emphasise that the US military campaign would be ending soon amid concerns from Republican allies that the US was being dragged into another long-term conflict in the region. “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he said in a phone call with CBS News. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force.” Addressing Republicans on Monday afternoon, he said: “We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion.” But he also indicated he was not yet declaring the US mission accomplished in Iran. “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said. US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on targets across Iran on Monday, as large crowds took to the streets in Tehran in a defiant show of support for Mojtaba Khamenei, the country’s newly appointed supreme leader. The conflict, now in its second week, continued to escalate, with fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US bases across the Middle East and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. In Lebanon, Israel pressed its offensive against Hezbollah with raids in the south and airstrikes in Beirut, while an Iranian missile was shot down over Turkey. As drone strikes were reported in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said France and its allies were preparing a “defensive” mission to the Gulf protect oil supplies. In Tehran’s Enghelab Square on Monday, thousands gathered to offer allegiance to Iran’s new supreme leader, hours after the appointment was formally announced. Chanting “Death to America, Death to Israel,” and “God is Great,” some waved Iranian flags, others banners bearing the portrait of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the new leader’s father, who was killed after 37 years in power by an Israeli airstrike in the first moments of the war. Armoured vehicles lined nearby roads and security personnel were stationed on the rooftops of surrounding buildings. “The path of the martyred Imam Khamenei will carry on under the name of Khamenei,” said Hosseinali Eshkevari, a member of Iran’s assembly of experts, the body tasked with selecting the supreme leader. Another member, Mohsen Heydari, said the late Ali Khamenei had recommended the selection of the candidate who is “hated by the enemy”. Israel said it will target Iran’s new supreme leader, while the US president, Donald Trump, who has dismissed the younger Khamenei as a “lightweight”, criticised Mojtaba’s selection. “I think they made a big mistake,” Trump told NBC. “I don’t know if it’s going to last. I think they made a mistake.” The defiant rhetoric in Tehran and the appointment of Khamenei, who is seen by analysts as a hardliner with close ties to the Revolutionary Guards, intensified fears that the conflict could last for weeks or even months and leave deep instability in its wake. Stock markets across the world fell sharply on Monday after oil prices surged. But after surging as high as $119.50 per barrel, the oil price fell back down after Trump suggested the war could end “very soon”. Iran’s attacks in the strait of Hormuz have all but stopped tankers from using the key shipping lane through which a fifth of the world’s oil is carried. Speaking during a visit to Cyprus to discuss regional security, Macron said a new naval mission would be aimed at escorting container ships and tankers in order to gradually reopen the strait of Hormuz after the end of “the hottest phase of the conflict”. France has already sent about a dozen naval vessels, including its aircraft carrier strike group, to the Mediterranean, Red Sea and potentially the strait of Hormuz as part of defensive support to allies threatened by the conflict in the Middle East. Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, said in a post on X on Monday that safe passage through the strait of Hormuz would not be restored “amid the fires ignited by the United States and Israel in the region”. Analysts have said Iran is hoping that restricting the flow of oil to global markets and attacking energy infrastructure in the region will threaten sufficient damage to the global economy to force Trump to end the US offensive, and bring an end to the war on Tehran’s terms. Late on Monday Trump said on social media: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.” The remark was an apparent response comments from a spokesperson for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guards, who said “Iran will determine when the war ends.” Neither the US, Israel nor the Gulf states that have born the brunt of the Iranian attacks currently appear ready to consider concessions, however. On Monday, Kuwait’s emir, Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah, described Iran’s strikes on the kingdom as “a brutal attack by a neighbouring Muslim country, which we consider a friend, even though we have not permitted the use of our land, airspace, or coasts for any military action against it.” Saudi Arabia said Tehran would be the “biggest loser” if it continues to attack Arab states. In the United Arab Emirates, authorities said two people were wounded by shrapnel from the interception of Iranian missiles over the capital, Abu Dhabi. By mid-afternoon, the Emirati defence ministry said 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones were fired on the country on Monday. A total of 253 missiles and 1,440 drones have been launched at the UAE since the war began. Four foreign nationals have been killed in the UAE and 117 wounded, authorities said. Iran also attacked Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, where it hit a residential area, wounding 32 people, including several children, according to authorities. Another attack appeared to have started a fire at Bahrain’s only oil refinery, sending thick plumes of smoke into the air. Bahrain has also accused Iran of damaging one of its desalination plants, though its electricity and water authority said supplies remained online. Desalination plants supply water to millions of residents in the region, raising new fears of catastrophic risks in parched desert nations. Iran continues to target Israel with drones and ballistic missiles. A man was killed in central Israel in a missile strike, the first such death in Israel in a week, in which a woman was also wounded. The war has killed at least 1,230 people in Iran, at least 397 in Lebanon and 11 in Israel, according to officials. Israel reported its first military deaths on Sunday, saying two combat engineers were killed in southern Lebanon, where it is fighting Hezbollah. An Israeli military spokesperson accused Iran of targeting Israel’s cities with cluster bombs. “We are seeing on a daily basis [that] Iran is deliberately targeting densely populated civilian areas,” the spokesperson said. The official said that Israel was attacking “terrorist infrastructure” in Lebanon, which has been pulled deep into the war in the Middle East since Hezbollah opened fire to avenge the killing of Khamenei, triggering an Israeli offensive, which has so far killed more than 400 people there, according to Lebanese authorities. The Israeli military has ordered inhabitants to leave the southern suburbs of Beirut, much of south Lebanon and parts of the eastern Bekaa valley region – all areas that have served as political and security strongholds of Hezbollah. “Mass displacement across Lebanon has forced nearly 700,000 people – including around 200,000 children – from their homes, adding to the tens of thousands already uprooted from previous escalations,” Edouard Beigbeder, Unicef regional director, said. “Children are being killed and injured at a horrifying rate, families are fleeing their homes in fear, and thousands of children are now sleeping in cold and overcrowded shelters,” he said. In Turkey, Nato air defences intercepted a ballistic missile that entered the country’s airspace – the second such attack since the war started. President Tayyip Erdoğan said that Turkey’s main goal is to keep the country out of the “blaze” of the conflict.

Vague and contradictory Trump says Iran war ‘won’, but not ‘won enough’

At one of the most consequential moments of his two terms in office, wartime president Donald Trump on Monday delivered a vague and contradictory forecast for how long the United States will continue to fight in Iran and what the ultimate goal of the US military campaign there will be. With oil hovering above $100 a barrel for much of Monday and Middle Eastern allies fearing a further tumble into regional conflict, Trump appeared in Doral, Florida with the mission of calming global markets and reassuring skittish allies that he has a clear vision for how to end the largest US intervention in the Middle East since the Iraq war. If there is one, it was not delivered in this press conference. In a 35-minute appearance, the US president eschewed the specifics to hammer home how thoroughly the US has destroyed Iran’s military and to bolster suspicions that there has been little planning for what comes next. After floating remarks that the war was “very complete, pretty much” to a CBS News reporter in a phone call, he then evaded a reporter’s question about whether that meant the war could wrap up this week. “No but soon. I think soon. Very soon.” Reporters tried again. “You said the war is ‘very complete’. But your defense secretary says ‘this is just the beginning.’ So which is it?” “I think you could say both,” Trump replied. Straight away he added: “It’s the beginning of building a new country”. Never mind that Trump and his top advisers had ruled out managing an effort at nation-building in Iran; hours have passed and indeed Trump’s own vision for Iran seems to change with every telephone call he has taken from a reporter in the last ten days. Thanks to his CBS call, there was a sense he may be preparing to announce a drawdown. But he stopped short of a mission accomplished moment here and instead said the war would continue. “We could call it a tremendous success right now or we could go further,” he said. “And we’re going to go further.” “We have won in many ways,” he said in a characteristic moment during a speech to Republican allies before the press conference. “But we haven’t won enough.” It was a head-scratcher and Democrats quickly jumped on those remarks to say that Trump’s goals for the Iran conflict were incoherent or simply absent. “One word to sum up Trump’s press conference: clueless,” wrote Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader from New York. “He can’t articulate a plan or a vision because he has no plan or vision. He can’t even decide whether or not the country is at war. He’s risking the world economy and the lives of millions on whims and vibes.” There were other reminders of how US foreign policy has now fully passed through the looking-glass. Trump on Monday said that he would relax sanctions on certain countries sales of oil to help calm markets, reversing his own policy of increasing economic pressure on Russian oil sales to help end the conflict in Ukraine. He then added that the US may not ultimately return those sanctions once global markets return to normal. “Who knows … maybe we won’t have to put them on, there will be so much peace.” But in the most striking moment, Trump suggested that Iran had covertly obtained a Tomahawk missile and then used it to strike a girl’s school in the city of Minab, killing more than 168 people – most of them children. Asked whether the US would accept any responsibility for the strike, which occurred not long before the US hit a naval base nearby, Trump suggested: “Tomahawks are used by many countries,” and that “Iran has some Tomahawks.” That was more than many reporters in the room could stomach. “You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war,” said one reporter, before asking why “you’re the only person in your government saying this.” “Because I just don’t know enough about it”, Trump responded. “I think it’s something that I was told is under investigation”.

Trump’s Iran war will reinforce North Korea’s view that nuclear weapons are the only path to security

North Korea’s launch last week of a missile from a naval destroyer elicited an uncharacteristically prosaic analysis from the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un. The launch was proof, he said, that arming ships with nuclear weapons was “making satisfactory progress”. But the test, and Kim’s mildly upbeat appraisal, were designed to reverberate well beyond the deck of the 5,000-tonne destroyer-class vessel the Choe Hyon – the biggest warship in the North Korean fleet. His pointed reference to nuclear weapons was made as the US and Israel continued their air bombardment of Iran – a regime Donald Trump had warned, without offering evidence, was only weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. The widening war in the Middle East – and the existential threat to the Iranian regime – has likely reinforced North Korea’s decision to build a nuclear arsenal. For Kim and the dynasty that has ruled North Korea since it was founded by his grandfather in 1948, the nuclear programme is about nothing less than regime survival. “Kim must have thought Iran was attacked like that because it didn’t have nuclear weapons,” Song Seong-jong, a professor at Daejeon University and a former ‌official of South Korea’s defence ministry, said after the Middle East conflict erupted. North Korea is several years into a nuclear weapons programme that has gathered momentum despite UN sanctions and Trump’s attempts to use diplomacy to rid the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons. The North conducted its first nuclear test as long ago as 2006 and its most recent in 2017, although doubts persist over the size of Pyongyang’s arsenal and its ability to marry a miniaturised nuclear warhead with a long-range missile theoretically capable of striking the US mainland. According to a report released in 2025 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the North has assembled about 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more. What is certain is Kim’s decision to make nuclear deterrence a priority – and forging a loose alliance with Russia and China – has guaranteed that he will avoid the fate of the former leaders of Iraq and Libya, and now Venezuela and Iran. The North Korean foreign ministry’s response to the war in Iran has been nuanced. It condemned the US and Israeli airstrikes last weekend as an “illegal act of aggression” that exposed Washington’s “hegemonic and rogue” instincts, but stopped short of condemning Trump by name. That leaves the door open to a potential resumption of nuclear talks, contingent on Washington dropping its demand that Pyongyang abandon its nuclear weapons and accepting it as a legitimate nuclear state. “If the United States withdraws its policy of confrontation with North Korea by respecting our country’s current status … there is no reason why we cannot get along well with the US,” KCNA quoted Kim as saying at a ruling party congress last month. What’s less clear in the minds of analysts is whether the Iran war opens up a new opportunity for talks or pushes the North Korean regime to be more inward looking. Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes the conflict has made a nuclear deal between Washington and Pyongyang less likely. “President Trump’s willingness to use military force and threats for negotiating leverage must make Kim nervous and less likely to hastily seek talks,” said Seiler, a former US special envoy who worked on the ⁠six-party talks on the North’s nuclear programme. But other analysts said Kim’s desire to secure the regime’s long-term survival – and his rumoured personal rapport with the US president – could draw him back to the negotiating table. “Unlike Iran, it’s impossible to denuclearise North Korea,” said Cho Han-bum, of the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, citing ⁠the presence of nuclear sites across the isolated country. Going into those talks as head of a state with a nuclear deterrence could give Kim the latitude to win concessions from Trump, including security guarantees. Trump has repeatedly said he would be open to meeting Kim, prompting speculation the two could hold talks when Trump visits China at the end of the month. If those talks materialise, Kim knows he will be negotiating from a position of strength. As the Iranian leadership is finding to its cost, nuclear possession – not ambition – appears to be the path to security. Agencies contributed reporting

Ukraine war briefing: Trump set to ease oil-related sanctions following Putin call

Following a phone call with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump said the US will waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage sparked by the US-Israeli war on Iran. Trump told reporters in Florida on Monday: “So we have sanctions on some countries. We’re going to take those sanctions off until the strait [of Hormuz] is up.” He declined to provide further details. The move could mean a further easing of sanctions on Russian oil, Reuters reported, according to multiple sources, which in turn could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options to calm the market include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting US exports, sources said. Last week the US issued a temporary waiver allowing India to purchase certain Russian oil cargoes to help it cope with the loss of Middle Eastern supply. With the strait of Hormuz blocked to nearly all oil tankers, the price of benchmark crude oil contracts rocketed past $100 a barrel on Monday – their highest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – before pulling back. A previously announced White House plan to provide naval escorts and backstop insurance for tankers travelling through the strait has so far has failed to significantly boost shipping traffic through the vital waterway. The US president said the conversation with his Russian counterpart was upbeat, adding: “We were talking about Ukraine, which is just a never-ending fight. But I think it was a positive call on that subject.” Putin’s foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov described the conversation as “frank and businesslike” and said it lasted about one hour. Putin signalled again that Russia was ready to supply oil and gas to Europe, saying the Iran war had triggered a global energy crisis and cautioned that oil production dependent on transport through the strait of Hormuz could soon come to a complete halt. Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter and holds the world’s biggest reserves of natural gas. Putin also said Russian companies should take advantage of the current situation in the Middle East, though he noted that the spike in prices was probably temporary in character. Ukraine’s president has said he sent interceptor drones and operators to protect US bases in Jordan last week, one of 11 countries that had asked Kyiv for help as the US-Israeli war against Iran continued into its 10th day. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview that he had responded to a US request for help in defending Jordan last week as Ukraine seeks to improve relations with Gulf and Middle Eastern countries coming under attack from Iran. Zelenskyy posted on social media that “there are 11 requests from countries neighbouring Iran, European states, and the US” and that some had been met with “concrete decisions and specific support”. Satellite imagery indicates that the radar used by a US Thaad air defence system at the base in Jordan was damaged or even knocked out by Iranian attacks, one of several apparently hit across the region. Ukraine is ready for new US-backed peace talks with Russia “at any moment”, but its partners’ attention is now focused on the Iran conflict, Zelenskyy said on Monday, saying the US had asked to postpone an upcoming meeting. Six people were injured and cars were set ablaze when a Russian drone struck an area near a high-rise apartment building in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, on Monday, the city’s mayor said. Ihor Terekhov said a small child was among the injured. Kharkiv, located 30km (18 miles) from the Russian border, withstood early advances by Russian forces in February 2022 and has since been a frequent target of Russian air attacks. Separately, Russian shelling of the south-eastern city of Dnipro injured seven people, regional governor Oleksandr Ganzha said on Telegram. Ganzha posted photos online showing rubble in streets and damaged building facades. Ukraine has urged organisers of the Venice Biennale to reconsider Russia’s participation in the prestigious art exhibition, arguing that it must not become “a stage for whitewashing … war crimes.” Biennale organisers said last week that Russia would be allowed to take part in the event, held from 9 May until 22 November, triggering widespread criticism, including from Italy’s culture ministry, which said it opposed the decision. Previously, the organisers never formally barred Russia from participating, but the country was absent in 2022 and 2024. The Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich has stepped up his row with the British government over the £2.5bn proceeds of his sale of Chelsea FC, insisting the money is his to allocate despite the international sanctions imposed on his assets over the Ukraine war. The UK and EU imposed sanctions on Abramovich in 2022, over his ties to Putin’s regime, triggering the sale of the Premier League club to a consortium. However, the £2.5bn raised by the sale has remained locked in a UK bank account. Britain wants the money ringfenced for use only in Ukraine but Abramovich has indicated that he wants more flexibility over how the money would be spent.

‘We thought we were doomed’: Canadian fishers in dramatic rescue after ice shelf floats away

Kevin Fox thought the spring-like temperatures that had temporarily pushed the cold away from south-eastern Ontario meant a good day on for ice fishing, a popular winter pastime in the region. After shifting location because the wind and ice “didn’t feel right” and the fish weren’t biting close to shore, he and a friend joined nearly two dozen others far out on a sheet of ice in Lake Huron. They followed the familiar routine of anyone who spends a day on the ice: they drilled holes, dropped their lines and waited. Less than four hours after venturing on to the frozen lake, however, disaster struck. Fishers including Fox noticed they were moving – imperceptibly slowly, but enough that it was captured on their electronic devices. Unseasonably warm weather and strong winds had helped detach a large piece of ice from the shores of Georgian Bay, stranding 23 people – including families – and prompting a dramatic rescue. Despite strong winds, Ontario police were able to send two helicopters and one air ambulance to retrieve the stranded anglers in an operation on Sunday that took two hours. Fox wrote on Facebook that the group decided to run toward one side of the bay in an attempt to escape back to land. But they soon realized the ice had already separated from the shore in that spot. At another section, they found the same result: the ice had sheared from the land. As chasms replaced cracks in the ice, fear set in, survivors recalled. “I just started screaming: the ice is opening. The ice is opening,” Alfie How, one of the fishers, told the Sun Times, a local newspaper. Three members of the group tried to run towards shore but the ice around them fractured into smaller pieces, stranding them on open water. “That’s when the reality of the situation really set in. We heard with the [strong] winds at one point they could not send a boat or helicopter. We honestly thought we were doomed,” he wrote. “Some of the guys started making final phone calls to their families. It’s something I will never forget – seeing grown men crying while saying goodbye to the people they love.” While some of the stranded anglers had floatation suits on, they knew the freezing waters would overwhelm them within minutes. Eventually, helicopters arrived, first plucking the trio from a small piece of ice and then ferrying the other stranded people back to shore. Fox says he and others took the necessary precautions to avoid a catastrophic outcome by monitoring the ice, winds and temperatures. But police say that warm weather has notoriously unpredictable effects on ice, especially in large bodies of water. “We’re really encouraging people here in our area to stay off the ice altogether. Stay away from the edges of waterways,” constable Craig Soldan of the Huron county Ontario provincial police told the Canadian Press. “That includes rivers, ponds – any kind of bodies of water where you’ve got ice shelves, they’re breaking away.” Soldan said the detachment has a motte: “No ice is safe ice.”

A country divided: state media show Mojtaba supporters as Iranians online fear repression

At around midday, even as airstrikes hit several parts of the capital, large crowds gathered in Tehran’s famous Enghelab Square to chant their allegiance to Iran’s new supreme leader. Carrying banners showing the face of the country’s slain leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, people on Monday held a new portrait – that of his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. Other similar scenes on state media showed pledges of loyalty from several cities across the country, with people chanting, “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”, as security forces looked on. The images stood in stark contrast to those from nine days earlier, when Iranians were seen thronging the streets to celebrate the assassination in joint US-Israeli strike of Ali Khamenei. Many inside the country blame the late cleric for three decades of repression, including the killings of thousands of protesters in bloody state crackdowns on anti-government protests. Just hours before the announcement on Sunday night of the new leader, videos posted on social media appeared to show people in Tehran chanting “Death to Mojtaba”. Although the internet blackout imposed by the regime on the first day of war continues, some Iranians have been sending texts abroad. “People for now are waiting to see if Trump will assassinate him, since he said that if he doesn’t like the next leader, he will kill him,” said Nima, 21, a student based in Khamenei’s home town, Mashhad. Mojtaba, 56, has kept a low profile but has close ties to the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and has been accused of leading the IRGC’s feared volunteer militia, the Basij. A discreet figure who rarely appeared in public, Mojtaba has yet to address the nation. “He is well known for one thing,” said Nima, as “way more of a hardliner than his father was, due to his strong connections to the Basij and the IRGC. These security institutions were and are largely in Mojtaba’s hands.” State media reported that the 28 February strike that killed his father, who ruled for 37 years, also killed several other members of the family, including Mojtaba’s wife and son. There are rumours the new supreme leader was himself wounded. Now, the atmosphere in Iran, said Nima, “will become more repressive and security-driven under him”, adding: “That is, if he survives.” A national crackdown has continued despite the war. The prosecutor general of the country has issued a warning to Iranians outside Iran that anything deemed to be cooperation with the US and Israel could lead to the confiscation of their property and hanging. Another anti-government protester, Farzad, 26, based in west Tehran, said the regime’s forces had been riding across the streets and chanting “God is great” for the past 24 hours. “They all look like they’re on steroids because the death of Khamenei and members of his family have really angered them,” he said. “He lost his family and he will definitely consider protesters responsible for this war.” Mojtaba was chosen by the surviving regime to show Donald Trump that “they won’t back down”, said Farzad. “This war will go on for a while … and we don’t intend to protest under these airstrikes and the Basijis on bikes who are obviously high on power.” The younger Khamenei represents continuity to his supporters – a digitally rendered image has been circulating on pro-regime channels of Ali Khamenei handing over a folded national flag to his son, symbolising the handover of the guardianship of the country. And at a pro-regime rally on Monday, university student Zahra Mirbagheri, 21, told Reuters that Mojtaba’s appointment was “a slap in the face to our enemies who thought the system will collapse with the killing of his father”. But critics have pointed out that the regime lends its credibility on being founded by a 1979 revolt against monarchy, which toppled the pro-western shah in 1979. Now its rule is marked by corruption, mismanagement and violence. Another activist in Tehran sarcastically pledged allegiance to the new “crown prince”. “All hail the king,” they said. “Who would have thought the operation ‘Epic Fury’ would turn out to be the operation epic failure where they managed to convince the hardliners to bring back monarchy?” they added. “Kudos to the US president for the success of another mission impossible. It’s ironic, but funny really. We are being taken for a fool and the show has just begun. Wait and watch how disastrous this decision is going to be not only for us, but also for the world, because Khamenei 2.0 is going to be doing exactly what the IRGC wants and not the other way around.” * Some names have been changed