As mentioned earlier, Zelenskyy is in Berlin today for talks with Merz (and between their two governments). He has just landed in central Berlin in the last half hour, and we should hear from both of them later today.
As the Iranian-linked militia Hezbollah urges Lebanon to pull out of talks with Israel later today, Reuters has some more details, including the news that US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, will attend. Talks will be held in Washington at 11am ET (3pm GMT, 4pm BST) between the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, and his Lebanese counterpart, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, officials say. As well as Rubio, the US ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, and the state department’s counsellor, Michael Needham, would attend, a department official said. Lebanon, Israel and the US have issued conflicting statements on what the talks would cover. Lebanon’s presidency has said the talks would focus on announcing a ceasefire and setting a start date for bilateral talks. A ceasefire was the only substantive issue Moawad is authorised to discuss, Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh said on Sunday. Israel would not discuss a ceasefire during the talks, which would focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon, Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian said on Monday.
The austerity years cast a long shadow over Britain. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, a programme of cuts overseen by then-chancellor George Osborne and the work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith gutted parts of the welfare state, limiting the generosity of what is now universal credit, introducing a bedroom tax and the two-child limit for child benefit. By 2021, an estimated £37bn had been cut from welfare spending each year alone, with further cuts made to other branches of government. The consequences of these decisions are all around us. Around four million children were classified as living in poverty in the UK, according to the most recent figures. This week, a University of Oxford study revealed that more than one-fifth of all “austerity generation” British children – that is, children born since 2013 – have been scarred by poverty for at least half their childhood. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Patrick Butler, the Guardian’s social policy editor, about the new research and ask whether enough is being done to tackle child poverty in the UK. First, this morning’s headlines. Five big stories Southport attack | Axel Rudakubana was able to carry out the Southport atrocity because of “catastrophic” failures by multiple agencies and the “irresponsible and harmful” role of his parents, a damning inquiry has found. Middle East crisis | The US blockade of ships using Iranian ports in the Gulf began on Monday evening, turning the six-week-old conflict between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran into a test of economic endurance. Health | Metabolic liver disease (MASLD) will affect 1.8 billion people worldwide by 2050, driven by rising obesity and blood sugar levels, according to a new report. There are now 1.3 billion people worldwide living with MASLD, a 143% increase in just three decades. Scotland | A funding deal to raise £100m from private investors for urgently needed nature restoration in Scotland has fallen through without the Scottish parliament being told, the Guardian has learned. XL bully ban | Police spending on kennels and veterinary bills in England and Wales has more than tripled since the XL bully ban came into force, with some forces recording an almost 500% spending increase since 2024. In depth: ‘On a spreadsheet, the cuts might look like a win. But it’s been a disaster’ Near-Dickensian levels of poverty have returned to the UK once again – and austerity was the key driver, according to many experts. British children who grew up in this period are shorter than their European counterparts, and poorer areas of the country have seen a resurgence in Victorian illnesses such as rickets and scurvy. On average, the programme cost Britons around six months in their life expectancy, according to one study. On Monday, a study by University of Oxford researchers provided a fresh insight into the nature of childhood poverty in Britain. It found a major increase in the proportion of children born after 2013 who spent at least six of their first 11 years of life in hardship after austerity cuts. Poverty became a defining factor in the formative years for this cohort, says Patrick Butler, often with disastrous consequences. “When a child grows up in poverty, that is damaging to their development,” Patrick tells me. “We know that the longer a child stays in poverty, the more damage it causes. And by damage, we’re talking about health, we’re talking about their education attainment, we’re talking about their chance of getting a job and earning. On all those measures, we know that poverty is a kind of negative factor.” Long-term poverty is now a reality for almost a quarter of British children, surging from between 13 and 14% during the New Labour-era. *** A precise causal relationship Austerity policies took thousands of pounds from the household budgets of many low-income families. Benefit-rate freezes, the two-child benefit limit and the bedroom tax were accompanied by further cuts to local government and health, making it hard to establish a precise causal relationship between specific policies and outcomes from the time, Patrick explains. But the overall impact of austerity had a clear impact on the situation in the country today. While relative poverty in the UK – defined as a household whose income is less than 60% of the median income – has flatlined at around 21% in recent years, there is growing evidence that the poorest families are getting poorer, he says. In January, research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found that about 6.8 million people were in deep poverty, the highest level since records began. “We’re talking about really severe poverty where children are probably not getting enough to eat, their parents struggling to feed them or clothe them properly. When people talk about Dickensian levels of poverty, that’s the kind of thing we are talking about. Material poverty is a distinct factor with modern poverty,” says Patrick. *** ‘They’ve made a start’ Since Labour returned to power, the government has taken some measures to tackle childhood poverty in the UK. This month, the two-child limit on child benefit was removed, providing an instant boost for some poor households. Almost half a million children will be lifted out of poverty by the measure by the end of the decade. Universal credit has also been given an above-inflation increase. But they could go further, says Patrick, pointing out that some austerity-era policies are still in place. “They’ve made a start. You could argue that they were a bit tardy about it. Some parts of the Labour government were resistant to abolishing the two-child limit. The benefit cap and the bedroom tax are still there, although they had relatively minor impacts. So, there’s still more to do.” *** The shirker narrative Attitudes in the British public towards the poorest in society have softened since the austerity era. Rhetoric on the issue tends to focus on so-called “shirkers” and “welfare kings and queens”, but Patrick says that framing rarely reflects reality, with many of parents who receive state support already being in work. High poverty levels often lead to larger societal costs, he says, something that was not factored in by the architects of austerity. “On a spreadsheet, the cuts might look like a win. But on the other side of the ledger, it’s been a disaster. You’ve seen more children in care, in foster care or children’s homes. Poor health has consequences for the NHS, while greater inequality is an issue on its own. That is what was so striking about this research: it was a very useful reminder about just how damaging those austerity policies were.” What else we’ve been reading In line with the spirit of our newsletter today, I thought Ken Loach was brilliant in this interview for the series How we made, about his film I, Daniel Blake (pictured above). Loach showed just how normalised some of the most gruesome parts of austerity have become. Poppy Noor, acting editor, newsletters Julian Borger’s interview with the Italian human rights lawyer Francesca Albanese is a must-read. They discuss her new book and what it’s like to be in the crosshairs of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Patrick I loved our spring photo gallery – within which is a pretty foreboding image of the US president, contrasted lower down with one of New York’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani, which is full of colour and movement. Oh, and there’s some cute pics of kids getting all soaped up in Myanmar at the end too! Poppy Rachel Leingang has an entertaining read on the rise of the raspberry danish latte and how it became a viral drink. Patrick And finally, please enjoy the list I never knew I needed: from Bollywood classics to great rave choons, it’s the best records by Asah Bhosle, one of India’s greatest vocalists. Sport Cricket | James Anderson rolled back the years with a brilliant intervention to bowl Lancashire to a surprise last-day win over Derbyshire. Anderson, now 43 and two seasons on from retiring as England’s record Test wicket-taker, claimed four for 18 to fire the Red Rose to a 20-run win at Emirates Old Trafford. Football | The Ghanaian winger Dominic Frimpong has been killed, aged 20, in an armed robbery attack on his team’s bus, as they returned from a match on Sunday, the Ghana Football Association said. Olympics | Some Angelenos looking for presale tickets to the 2028 Games have been left shocked over exorbitant prices and an unexpected service fee. LA28 made a wave of slots in the presale ticket lottery available for residents in southern California, and in Oklahoma City, which will host the canoe slalom and softball events. Tickets ranged in price from $28 into the thousands. The front pages The Guardian leads with “‘Catastrophic’ failures by state led to Southport attack, inquiry finds”. The Mail has “Southport killer’s parents ‘should have stopped him’”. The Sun follows the same story with “They didn’t have to die”, while the Mirror has “This fight does not end today”. The Telegraph reports “Trump repents his Jesus stunt”. The Times goes with “Trump rolls the dice on blockading the Strait”. The Financial Times says “Ex-Nato chief Robertson hits out at Starmer ‘complacency’”. Finally the i has “UK passengers abandoned at EU airports in chaotic new Brexit checks”. Today in Focus After four decades, Lebanon and Israel finally talk With the US and Iran in deadlock, could historic talks between Lebanon and Israel help steer the Middle East towards peace? William Christou reports. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad When was the last time you did a jigsaw puzzle? For Rachel Hosie (pictured above), it had been more than 20 years since she’d opened a puzzle box. Then, on a rainy day, she came across a 1,000-piece illustration of Agatha Christie at work – and became, as she puts it in The one change that worked, obsessed. Her new hobby helped her cope with a few big changes in quick succession – marriage, quitting her job and moving abroad – and turned out to be “the missing piece of my life”, pun intended. “Every time I successfully place a piece,” Hosie says, “I get a little rush and feel a sense of achievement. It’s a dopamine hit, but one I’ve worked for instead of just scrolling from Instagram reel to Instagram reel.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
Up early for once. The moon’s still there, miraculous white ghost in the clear morning sky. If my eyes were better I might glimpse a capsule containing the four remarkable humans who have travelled further from our planet than anyone in history. With this knowledge, seeing the moon hits differently. I sit on the terrace, taking in the view. For Easter, this Londoner seeks tranquillity by the sea, and the Ventnor Undercliff – the Isle of Wight’s deep south – ticks both boxes. On a clear day you’ll believe you can see France. Time passes, coffee cools. Then, a flicker of movement. Fast, lithe, slender. I lose it in a mess of leaves, then it darts up on to the base of an olive tree, camouflaged against the gnarly bark – prime basking territory. A wall lizard, taking advantage of the warmest day of the year. Their colouring varies; this one favours olive, the chequerboard completed by muted grey and brown, with two yellow flank stripes warm in the morning sun. The origin of this well-established population is disputed. Some reckon the lizard’s ancestors were shipwreck survivors; others that they’re simply wild animals at the northernmost end of their range. Perhaps they descended from escapers, or were introduced in the late 19th century, the result of their popularity with collectors. A genetic study suggests their origins are in Italy, right in the middle of their European range. Whatever, the Undercliff’s microclimate suits their lifestyle. Here they have south-facing terraces and banks, an abundance of scrubby plants, and handy crevices to dive into when it gets too hot or danger approaches. But the dart for cover isn’t always its natural reaction, and this one is bold. It curtails its basking activities and dashes straight towards me, coming so close that for a moment I think it’s going to climb into my lap. But it stops by my side, unafraid of my presence just inches away. It seems to be waiting for something. I could swear it was indignant. Realisation dawns. I’m in its way. I stand up with a muttered apology, it scampers past – pitter-patter – without acknowledgment, and we both get on with our day. • Under the Changing Skies: The Best of the Guardian’s Country Diary, 2018-2024, is available now at guardianbookshop.com
In a move designed to increase pressure on the US to make compromises in its conflict with his country, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi has been briefing European capitals on the nature of the offer Iran had been willing to make about its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and future stewardship of the strait of Hormuz during the weekend talks in Islamabad. After the inconclusive talks, Araghchi held phone briefings with the French and German foreign ministers, Jean-Noël Barrot and Johann Wadephul, as well as the Saudi, Omani and Qatari foreign ministers. It is understood he stressed that Iran did not regard the Pakistan-led process as exhausted even after 21 hours of intensive talks. Europe has been sidelined on the Iran file by Donald Trump for more than a year, as the US president focused on working with Israel, while Tehran has largely dismissed European governments, seeing them as inveterate creatures of America. But the signs of the deepening transatlantic split, and the intense pressure being applied to European economies, has led Iran to review its stance on Europe as a potential lever on Trump. European countries, to show some respect for Trump’s demand that they provide military support for his war, have focused on building a defensive non-belligerent naval alliance to police the freedom of navigation in the strait of Hormuz, but only after the conflict ends. The plan requires delicate talks about rules of engagement, likely to be drawn from the EU’s experience in the Red Sea fending off the Houthis during Operation Aspides. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, announced a further joint conference with the British to discuss the proposal with allies, the third such meeting since the initiative was launched. Any plan will require discussion with Tehran, including on its plan to impose tolls. Trita Parsi, director of the Quincy Institute, said: “It is likely the Iranians are going to see if it is possible to move the Europeans at best in their direction, compared to where they have been before, which from the Iranian perspective has been very subservient to the US, and, if not, to see if there is a deeper split in Europe in which not all the states have to follow the line set by Germany, France or the UK. “Iranians in particular are trying to establish quickly this mechanism at relatively low toll fees and to get as many countries as possible to agree to it.” In the short term, Iran will be urging the countries with minesweeper equipment – Germany, the UK and Italy – to resist pressure from Washington to start clearing mines from the strait since Tehran will see this as an action as in support of Trump’s illegal blockade of Iranian oil ports. The removal of the largely unmapped mines would be perilous in a benign, peaceful environment, but even more fraught if the operation was being carried out under attack by Iranian drones. British ministers said the issue of Iranian mines would be discussed at the Franco-British conference. In the case of Italy, Trump’s attack on the pope, coupled with the defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, makes it politically fraught for the populist rightwing Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, to accede to the US pressure. Her close relationship with Trump and her support for Israel are buckling. Tehran has not expressed a definitive view of the French-British initiative, partly since it is not still clear what it entails, or what Iran’s long-term plan for the strait would require, including which ships would pay fees, on what legal basis, at what price, or in which currency. A bill before the Iranian parliament proposes that new tolls would apply to all commercial traffic, and not just oil tankers. It is possible the country would demand payment in cryptocurrency as a way of avoiding US sanctions. The strait of Hormuz alone accounts for 11% of global maritime trade and a third of all seaborne oil. Malley said he did not think a toll system would be sustainable, but added: “Iran has discovered a new means of deterrence which is more effective than acquiring a nuclear bomb and that is closing the strait of Hormuz.” The UK has insisted that freedom of navigation means navigation remains free. Araghchi was highly critical last year of Europe’s refusal to stand up to Trump when the E3 powers – France, Germany and the UK – permitted UN sanctions to be reinstated due to Iran’s alleged failure to meet its commitments on access to its nuclear sites. But the Iranian foreign ministry has watched as the split between Trump and Europe has grown over the Middle East, extending to the US’s commitment to Nato, and whether Israel should be required to join the ceasefire, as Iran demands, by ending its attacks on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran feels a strong obligation to protect Hezbollah from Israeli assaults, and the EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said it was vital that the war in Lebanon be included in any ceasefire talks. She said on Monday that the crisis was costing €22bn in raised fossil fuel energy bills. On Iran’s nuclear program, senior officials were stressing that the country had been willing to show its good faith by diluting, not handing over to a third party, its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Ali Nikzad, deputy speaker of Iran’s parliament, said: “The Islamic republic was ready, to prove its good faith, to dilute – not hand over – 450kg of enriched uranium.” He added: “A consortium was to be formed for dilution, with the participation of Iran, the United States and Saudi Arabia, but they backed out of this agreement.” But European diplomats said it remained a puzzle how to persuade Iran to make concessions on its nuclear programme, including a long-term pause in its domestic enrichment programme, when it has no means of ensuring US sanctions relief would be permanent. Some diplomats argued the strait could be offered as a legitimate source of income, or compensation, if the US resiled on sanctions relief. Nitya Labh, a member of the Chatham House international security programme, argued a new regime may have to be developed for the strait, adding: “Iran must be party to any agreement over the strait.” She wrote that this would probably require structured sanctions relief and management of the strait. Joint verification for transit and naval escorts of ships through the region involving Iran and other regional partners was likely. She conceded that bringing Iran into a structured framework that includes specific maritime proposals and new multinational coordination would not be a quick fix, but the foundation for stability. Labh said: “A future agreement must go further and define not only the nuclear constraints Iran would accept but also the political and economic relationship it would gain in return. It must do so in terms concrete enough to gain domestic support on all sides.” More broadly there is a mood inside Europe to be more assertive with Trump, even if it risks undermining the grand bargain they thought they had struck with him over support for Ukraine. Sophia Besch, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said it was in Europe’s interest to be more critical of the US’s conduct in Iran. She said: “If we want to try to keep up the permissive consensus for European rearmament, if we want to try to keep voters on board with all this money that we’re putting into our defense, we cannot follow military adventurism and unilateral wars.”
We’re closing this file now but our live coverage continues on a new blog here, including a summary of the latest key developments. Thanks for reading.
Péter Magyar, Hungary’s new leader, said he would ask Vladimir Putin to end the killing in Ukraine if they speak, and plans to review Hungary’s Russian energy contracts and renegotiate them if needed. Magyar said he would talk to the Russian president, but won’t initiate contact. “If Vladimir Putin calls, I’ll pick up the phone,” he said in his first news conference after his landslide win against Viktor Orbán, a Putin ally. “If we did talk, I could tell him that it would be nice to end the killing after four years and end the war. It would probably be a short phone conversation and I don’t think he would end the war on my advice,” he said. Ukraine welcomed with relief on Monday the defeat of Orbán, its harshest critic in the EU, an outcome that paves the way for a €90bn ($105bn) loan that Kyiv urgently needs to fund the war with Russia. Higher oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East could raise inflation rates in Ukraine by 1.5 to 2.8 percentage points, Ukraine’s top central banker said on Monday. The National Bank of Ukraine governor, Andriy Pyshnyi, said the central bank would stick to its target of lowering inflation to 5% in three years, using all available tools to ensure that goal was met. “We’re trying to walk on a razorblade,” Pyshnyi said through an interpreter, noting prices have already started to rise. The Ukrainian military struck a Russian chemicals plant in Cherepovets in the Vologda region, Kyiv’s drone forces commander said on Monday. The plant produces chemicals that serve as raw materials for TNT, hexogen and components for munitions, Robert Brovdi said on Telegram. Russian and Belarusian athletes will be permitted to compete in World Aquatics events with their respective uniforms, flags and anthems, the sport’s governing body said on Monday. Competitors from both countries were banned from international sports events after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which was launched in part from Belarusian territory. Boris Johnson has hit out at the “delay” and “timidity” in helping Ukraine after travelling through the country on a 72-hour trip for a documentary. The former British prime minister travelled beyond the capital Kyiv to the “kill zone” near the city of Zaporizhzhia where he witnessed first-hand the war between Russia and Ukraine. The former UK prime minister said Ukraine can and will win the war, but that “we are risibly failing to live up to our pledges” to the country.
The US blockade of ships using Iranian ports in the Gulf has come into effect, turning the six-week-old conflict between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran into a test of economic endurance. US Central Command (Centcom) made no formal announcement of the start of the blockade but had said it begin on Monday at 5.30pm Iranian time and would apply to any ships entering or departing Iranian ports or coastal areas, while ships using non-Iranian ports would not be impeded. Donald Trump claimed that 34 ships had passed through the strait of Hormuz, the gateway to the Gulf, on Sunday, but there was no supporting evidence for the claim. Speaking to reporters at the White House, the president also claimed: “We’ve been called by the other side,” who he said would “like to make a deal very badly”. Throughout the conflict, which began with a US-Israeli attack on 28 February, Trump has made frequent claims that Tehran had been in direct contact, desperate for an agreement, but the claims have never been substantiated. Iran warned that ordinary Americans would pay the cost for Donald Trump’s latest move in the shape of higher petrol prices, and also vowed that if the US went back to bombing, the Tehran regime was ready to retaliate. For his part, Trump said any Iranian attack boats approaching the US flotilla in the region would be “immediately eliminated”. It appeared on Monday that US naval forces were going to try to enforce the blockade east of the strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman, beyond easy Iranian missile and drone range. It remained unclear how Centcom intended to stop any oil tanker attempting to break the blockade. A missile attack could cause an environmental disaster, leaving open the possibility that US forces could seek to board and take control of any vessel not obeying US instructions. UK Maritime Trade Operations issued an advisory to seafarers to “maintain heightened situational awareness” pending updates giving details on how they were expected to navigate through the new conditions in the region. Trump said any Iranian “fast attack ships” would be eliminated if they approached US vessels enforcing the blockade with “the same system of kill” as the US has used to sink nearly 50 small boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing at least 168 people who it has claimed without evidence were involved in narco-trafficking. Trump ordered the blockade following US-Iranian talks in Islamabad that ended after 21 hours without agreement. The tactic is aimed at strangling the heavily oil-dependent Iranian economy, and forcing Tehran to meet US demands to reopen the Hormuz strait to ships from the ports of Gulf allies, and to accept a complete ban on uranium enrichment. Miad Maleki, a former US treasury official now at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said on X that the US naval blockade would cost Iran approximately $276m a day in lost exports and disrupt $159m a day in imports – representing combined economic damage of $13bn a month. The Iranian regime has insisted that it would in effect still have control of the Hormuz strait and can determine which ships would be allowed to pass, and has claimed that the US blockade would result in higher oil prices, which climbed back to above $100 a barrel since the diplomatic breakdown in Islamabad. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker who also led his country’s delegation in Islamabad, told Americans in a post on X on Sunday to “enjoy the current pump figures”, taunting Washington with historical US political sensitivity about petrol prices. “With the so-called ‘blockade’, soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4-$5 gas,” Ghalibaf added. The current average petrol price in the US is $4.13 a gallon, up from $2.98 before the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on 28 February. The president conceded on Sunday that petrol prices could be the same as they are now or more when the nation votes in congressional elections, telling Fox News they could go “a little bit higher”. The Iranian embassy in Thailand posted a mock election poster on Monday, emblazoned with the words “Trump: $20.28 a gallon”, under the question: “Are you ready folks?” On Monday Iran inserted itself into Trump’s continuing spat with Pope Leo XIV over the conflict. The US president had reacted angrily to the American-born pope’s criticisms of the administration’s use of religious language to justify its war in Iran. Trump called him “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy”, and posted an AI-generated picture of himself as a Christ-like figure tending the sick, an image widely condemned as blasphemous. On Monday, Trump claimed the image (in loose red and white robes and light emanating from his hands) was intended to portray him as “a doctor”. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, spoke out on Monday against what he called the “desecration of Jesus”. “I condemn the insult to Your Excellency on behalf of the great nation of Iran, and declare that the desecration of Jesus, the prophet of peace and brotherhood, is not acceptable to any free person.” The pope told reporters on Monday that he had “no intention to debate” with Trump over Iran and added he would “continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote peace, promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states to look for just solutions to problems”. The US-Israeli bombardment of Iran has stopped under a two-week Pakistani-brokered ceasefire, which began on Wednesday. Trump has said US forces remained “locked and loaded” and ready to “finish up the little that is left of Iran”. Iran has also said it is ready to go back to battle. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, an Iranian military spokesperson, said on Monday that if Iranian ports were threatened, “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe”. Despite Trump’s claims that other countries would help enforce the US blockade, none has come forward. The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, was adamant that his country did not support the blockade and that “we are not getting dragged into the war”. Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and Greece have all ruled out sending naval forces to support the blockade. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has said Paris would organise a conference with the UK and other countries to create a multinational mission to restore navigation in the Hormuz strait but made clear that would come after the conflict. “This strictly defensive mission, distinct from the belligerents, will be deployed as soon as the situation allows,” Macron said on X. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said that restoration of freedom of navigation in the strait of Hormuz was of “paramount” importance.