Just a reminder that the EU leaders are still in Brussels as they are discussing the bloc’s next financial budget. No doubt, they will get asked about Trump’s latest comments about Meloni once they come out.
Donald Trump has defended his deal to end the war with Iran as more details of the memorandum of understanding have been made public. So what does Iran get out of it, and can the US really claim this as a win? The Guardian’s global affairs correspondent, Andrew Roth, explains:
The centre of the strait of Hormuz is blocked with about 80 mines that will need clearing for normal shipping to resume, the independent tanker owner trade body has said. Several vessels began to exit the Gulf through the key maritime chokepoint on Thursday after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran. However, shipping is not expected to return to normal for some time, even if a ceasefire lasted, because of the mines and other obstacles, underlining the continuing challenges facing global trade. “The main route … through the middle of the strait of Hormuz, that’s closed, that’s dangerous,” said Phil Belcher, the marine director at Intertanko, the association of independent tanker owners. “The latest figure we had was that there’s 80 mines in the strait of Hormuz. It’s an enormous amount and it’s going to take some time to clear.” During the conflict Tehran laid mines in the centre of the strait in the traffic separation scheme, which has been in place between Iran and Oman since 1968, to restrict the movement of tankers and other vessels. About 20,000 seafarers were left stuck either side of the channel, although some ships managed to sneak through at night near the Omani coast with their transmitters off and with US assistance. Others paid to travel through Iranian waters in an arrangement nicknamed “Tehran’s tollbooth”. The shipping industry is keen to see a return to using the standard route, which before the conflict allowed about 130 ships a day to safely cross the strait, through which about 20% of global oil used to flow. “This is like a highway where the road in the middle is closed and you are using the hard shoulder,” said Belcher. “We need to get the highway open so we can get the volume of traffic through safely. One of the big issues we’ve got at the moment is the navigational risk, the risk of running aground on the rocks. It’s very close to the rocks on the southern route, the Omani route.” With high numbers of vessels trying to pass through narrow areas of the strait, the shipping industry is warning of the risk of collision. This risk is intensified by the “signal jamming” that Iran has reportedly carried out during the conflict, where electronic interference has prevented ships’ navigating and positioning systems from operating, leaving them effectively sailing blind. A collision, grounding or sinking could further disrupt global trade. Shipping companies still remember the disruption caused in 2021 when the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez canal for a week. Almost 600 vessels are believed to still be in the Gulf, where they have been anchored since February, meaning the backlog will take time to clear. Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief at the maritime data provider Lloyd’s List, said: “We are in uncharted territory. I don’t think [shipping in the strait] is getting back to normal this year.” The shipping industry is cautiously waiting to see whether the ceasefire in the strait will hold, after Israel and Hezbollah traded deadly strikes on Friday. The industry was already on high alert after the April ceasefire unravelled within hours of being announced. The MoU signed by the US and Iran this week should be “greeted with realism and extreme caution”, said Peter Sand, the chief analyst at the ocean and air freight analytics firm Xeneta. “Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiralling across major trades. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight.” Further concerns remain over Iran saying it plans to charge a maritime fee to vessels crossing the strait. Such tolls are illegal under international law. Under the terms of the US-Iran memorandum, Iran is required to ensure toll-free passage for commercial vessels for at least 60 days, with full restoration of traffic within 30 days. Tehran has said it would charge ships fees to cover the cost of managing the waterway after the 60-day period. The German container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has said it would be “fundamentally wrong” to charge vessels to pass through international waters. A company spokesperson added: “Tolls for infrastructure such as the Suez or Panama canals are different, as they reflect major infrastructure investments. That’s not the case in the strait of Hormuz.” The shipping industry is concerned that Iran charging fees could set a precedent for other key maritime channels that are bordered by several states, including the strait of Malacca – a narrow stretch of water between Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia – or the Taiwan strait separating the island of Taiwan from mainland China.
More than half of France’s population is under a severe weather warning as large swathes of western Europe endure the second extreme heat event of the year with temperatures expected to exceed 40C (104F). The French president, Emmanuel Macron, called for “extreme vigilance from everyone”, asking citizens to “take care of our oldest and most vulnerable people” and follow government advice. “We are going through difficult days,” he said. A 30-year-old man died after going into cardiac arrest on an athletics track near Paris on Thursday as the temperature hit 37C, prompting the rail operator SNCF to cancel 71 intercity trains and schools to reschedule exams. The national weather service, Météo-France, extended its orange heatwave alert to cover 53 of the country’s 96 mainland departments – home to 36 million people – from midday on Friday, warning of a “widespread, prolonged and intense” heatwave. Astronomical summer does not begin until Sunday, but the heatwave is already France’s second extreme temperature event of the year after an unusually hot spell in May that shattered local and national monthly temperature records. Météo-France said temperatures were likely to average 36C in the north-west and 38C in the centre and south on Friday. After a slight dip on Saturday they are forecast to rise to 40C in many regions, including Paris, early next week. With so much of the country affected, the agency said the national heat index, an average of the night and daytime temperatures recorded at 30 weather stations nationwide, could approach all-time highs on Sunday and Monday. The power utility EDF has said four nuclear plants were likely to curb output next week because of high cooling water temperatures in the Rhône and Garonne rivers, and several municipalities have cancelled Sunday’s Fête de la Musique festivities. A spokesperson for Spain’s state meteorological office, Aemet, said temperatures would reach 40C as the country entered “an episode of persistently high temperatures likely to meet the technical threshold for a heatwave”. Rubén del Campo said temperatures were likely to exceed 35C across the Iberian peninsular and Balearics, hitting 40C in some southern parts – such as the Tagus, Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys – but also in eastern Cantabria and the Ebro valley in the north. The heatwave could last until next Wednesday or Thursday, when temperatures are expected to fall, but it could remain “very hot” across much of the country, with night-time temperatures not falling below 25C in many areas. Temperatures in south-west Germany are forecast to rise to 36C by the weekend, prompting authorities to issue heat warnings even at altitudes of 600 metres (2,000ft). The DWD weather service also forecast heavy thunderstorms and downpours. The agency advised people to avoid physical activity where possible, whatever their level of fitness, and for non-swimmers to take care after a spate of recent drownings during hot spells. A hitzefrei or heat-free day was declared for Friday, meaning lessons were cut short and pupils sent home early because buildings were heating up to unmanageable temperatures.
Venice’s new mayor has said he hopes to raise a controversial entrance fee for day-trippers to the lagoon city to as much as €50 (£43). Simone Venturini, the rightwing former tourism councillor who was elected as mayor in late May, said the proposal was aimed at further discouraging arrivals “during periods of heightened tourist pressure”. In 2024, Venice became the first tourist city in the world to charge people to enter, introducing a €5 fee on 29 peak dates between April and July. The levy returned in 2025, with an expansion to 54 dates and charging last-minute day-trippers double. This year, the initiative covers 60 dates. Although the scheme has had little impact on visitor numbers, it did rake in €2.4m for the city’s coffers in its first year, much more than expected, and Venice authorities still believe it will eventually contribute to helping the Unesco world heritage city tackle overtourism. Venturini pledged during his election campaign to raise the fee to between €30 and €50, depending on the dates. He said the council was studying a proposal that it intended to present to the national government seeking permission to increase the entrance fee “on certain days and when specific booking thresholds are exceeded”. The toll is payable online, and in return visitors get a QR code that they must present to stewards hired to patrol the city’s main entrance points, such as Venezia Santa Lucia train station. Anyone who books an overnight stay in Venice is exempt from paying the fee, as are tourists from the wider Veneto region, which is where most day-trippers come from, as well as children under the age of 14. But even if a visitor has booked a hotel room, they are still obliged to register their presence on the website. Venturini said: “The admission fee is currently the only effective tool to control daily visitor numbers. We are therefore working on a proposal to make it more effective on high-traffic days, with the aim of finding a new balance between the needs of residents, workers and visitors.” He said the funds generated from the fee would be used “to finance city services and support the maintenance and protection of a unique city, built on water, whose costs exceed €100m each year”.
Talks due to take place on Friday between the US and Iran in Switzerland to implement a peace deal were cancelled as Hezbollah killed four Israeli soldiers and Israel carried out a wave of retaliatory airstrikes in south Lebanon and the Bekaa valley that killed at least 18 people. The talks had been due to begin in the Swiss village of Obbürgen two days after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that opened a 60-day window to negotiate a permanent understanding over Iran’s nuclear programme, while getting oil traffic moving through the strait of Hormuz. The White House said the US looked forward to “beginning technical talks as soon as possible”, as it announced that JD Vance, the vice-president, who is leading negotiations for the Trump administration, would now not be travelling. “The logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now, the vice-president is not departing tonight,” a White House spokesperson said late on Thursday. The cancellation of the talks came as Israel and Hezbollah traded their most violent strikes since the ceasefire was established. Hezbollah targeted Israeli forces near the city of Nabatieh, in south Lebanon, with several salvoes of rocket fire and drones overnight after intermittent Israeli shelling throughout Thursday. Israel responded with a wave of airstrikes on the city and surrounding towns on what it said were Hezbollah targets, leaving at least 18 people dead and 33 wounded, according to Lebanon’s ministry of health. Hezbollah said it was targeting Israeli forces that were trying to advance towards the foothills surrounding Nabatieh – a flashpoint where there has been intermittent fighting since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced. Prior to the truce, Israeli forces were advancing towards the southern Lebanese city. The killing of Israeli soldiers prompted fury within Israel, with the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, calling for scorched earth in Lebanon. “With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not up for bargaining. All of Lebanon must burn,” Ben-Gvir said in a statement. The French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, called on Israel on Friday to stop its strikes in Lebanon and said the US must put pressure on it to respect the ceasefire deal. “This agreement provides for a cessation of hostilities, the Israeli government must respect it, and the United States in particular must exert all the necessary pressure on the Israeli government to ensure that this is the case,” Barrot said on France Info radio. The cancellation of the talks between Iran and the US on Friday came so abruptly that Vance’s staff and a small pack of journalists had gathered at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington in anticipation of the trip. Dozens of White House officials, advance staffers and media were already in Switzerland to prepare for Vance’s anticipated arrival. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Thursday that he had approved the MoU despite reservations, while at the same time the US officially lifted a blockade of Iranian ports. Before the talks were cancelled, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said Iranian negotiators needed to see signs of implementation of the interim agreement from the US before the next rounds of peace talks could begin, and that there was no confirmation that its delegation would travel to Geneva. The cancellation of the talks came after a report from Al Mayadeen, an Arabic-language network that is politically allied with Hezbollah, that said Tehran was delaying sending its delegation to Switzerland owing to Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon. Israel, which was not included in the peace talks and has distanced itself from the US-Iran agreement, has continued its fighting in Lebanon and launched fresh airstrikes early on Friday, accusing Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire, an accusation the armed group has thrown back at Israel. Hezbollah said on Friday that its fighters destroyed three Israeli tanks in the country’s south and that clashes were ongoing. Israel had not confirmed its tanks were hit. Fighting began in Lebanon on 2 March when Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel in what it said was revenge for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader by the US and Israel. The subsequent Israeli invasion of south Lebanon and bombing campaign has left more than 3,900 people dead in Lebanon. Hezbollah has killed at least 32 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and three Israeli civilians. On Thursday, Israel announced what it called its “security zone” in south Lebanon, which comprises hundreds of square miles of Lebanese territory. Lebanese officials have demanded a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, something Iran said was required by the MoU. The MoU calls for the “permanent termination” of the war in Lebanon and for the country’s “territorial integrity and sovereignty” to be ensured. Donald Trump has said he expects a complete ceasefire on all fronts. Israel has so far insisted it will not pull out its troops from south Lebanon, leading to open criticism from Trump and Vance. On Thursday, Vance said Israel needed to respect the peace process. “What the president has grown frustrated with, at times, is that we seem to be right on the cusp of a major breakthrough in the agreement and then all of a sudden there’s a major explosion that goes off in a civilian population centre in Beirut, and a lot of people who have nothing to do with Hezbollah lose their lives,” Vance told reporters, adding that such actions were “not acceptable”. On Friday, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned against any breach of the agreement, saying: “In case of misconduct, breach of treaty and excess of the other side, we have no doubt that decisive response will be given to the enemy.” The diplomatic back-and-forth over the planned talks adds to the uncertainty over whether a lasting truce can be found to a regional war that has killed at least 7,000 people, sent energy prices soaring and shaken global markets. Khamenei on Thursday said Trump had signed the deal “out of desperation” and signalled that further talks would not be easy. “If the American side wants to be too demanding, we will not accept it,” he said in a written message. The deal gives negotiators 60 days to reach agreement on the status of Iran’s nuclear programme unless both sides agree to an extension, and sets up a $300bn reconstruction fund for Iran and other financial incentives. On Thursday, US forces lifted their naval blockade of Iranian ports that had prevented ships from sailing to or from the country, the US military said, noting that American warships “will remain in the general area”. Activity was still muted in the strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck for energy shipments that Iran blockaded during the conflict.
As the procession wound its way through mounds of rubble, the crowd chanted and beat their chests, their lamentations echoed by the dull thud of shelling in the foothills just beyond the city. “This is the tragedy of Karbala, O Imam Hussein, look. This is the tragedy of Karbala,” the crowd cried in the opening procession of Ashura, in the city of Nabatieh, southern Lebanon. The religious ceremony marking Ashura mourns the slaying of the holy figure Imam Hussein in the battle of Karbala in 680; today, it is a symbol for Shia Muslims of resistance against oppression. In normal times, the annual commemoration is the pride of Nabatieh, drawing crowds of up to 30,000 people who march through the streets and fill them with a collective cry of grief. This year, the story of Karbala took on a renewed meaning for attenders because of the Hezbollah-Israel war, which killed more than 3,900 people in Lebanon, most of whom were Shia Muslims. Nabatieh was one of the hardest-hit by bombings during the war, and much of it was levelled. On Wednesday, the cries of sorrow were muffled by the mounds of earth and snarled metal that had been cleared from the roads two days earlier. The 200 or so people could not fill the silence that hung over the city, its streets empty and its buildings shattered after 100 days of war. Nabatieh was mourning its recent dead on this Ashura, the tears shed by worshippers recounting the war that had displaced most of the city and killed many who did not have the chance to escape. Martyr posters dotted the streets: at the roundabout at the entrance to the neighbouring village of Harouf, a 3-metre poster displayed the faces of 50 young Hezbollah fighters killed in that village alone. “This year Ashura has a special meaning to us. We have lived the battle of Karbala every day during this war,” said Ismail Yaghi, a 50-year-old at the ceremony. As he spoke, he looked over at the posters of young men who had been killed, their faces hung on the walls of the mosque and printed on T-shirts and buttons worn by attenders. “There is sadness in our hearts and a pride at the same time for our martyrs. But we believe that just because someone died, it doesn’t mean that their life has ended. Their eternal life has just begun,” said Yaghi. The city’s residents had not expected to commemorate Ashura in Nabatieh this year; almost all of the 80,000 residents had been displaced by Israeli bombings and forced evacuation orders. A ceasefire announced on Monday between the US and Iran had unexpectedly stopped the war in Lebanon, and had halted the advance of Israeli forces who were on the verge of taking the entire city. Civil defence crews quickly began to prepare for the religious ceremony. The volunteers in the Nabatieh ambulance service put down their medical kits and picked up brooms as they set about clearing rubble from the city’s central mosque, hanging black banners to mask the gaping holes in its walls caused by an airstrike. “Usually we take the entire month to prepare for Ashura. This time we just had two days,” said Mehdi Sadek, the 45-year-old head of the ambulance service, as he stirred a large pot of onions and spices. He stopped stirring to look outside as the sound of Israeli artillery shook the building. Smoke rose above the hills ringing Nabatieh. Despite a ceasefire, Israel and Hezbollah had continued firing on one another in the so-called “security zone” that Israel occupied, comprising hundreds of square miles of southern Lebanon. Israeli troops were just beyond the Ali Taher hill on the edge of the city. On Friday morning, fighting intensified. Hezbollah fired on Israeli troops, killing four soldiers, and in response, Israel carried out a wave of airstrikes around Nabatieh and in the city itself, killing 18 people and wounding 33. “There were more people here yesterday, but it was a hard night. There was lots of shelling,” Sadek said. The Lebanese army had blocked off entrances to the upper part of the city and to villages bordering Israeli positions after Israel fired on people returning on Tuesday. Families had fled the renewed violence, fearful that this ceasefire would collapse as the last two had. “We expected things to be better than they are now. We wanted a real ceasefire. We decided to do Ashura in Nabatieh because we wanted to create a reason for people to come back,” Sadek said. Despite the religious ceremony, not many people had returned to the city and the surrounding villages. A few people drove through the streets to check on their houses and then left again. It was a far cry from the November 2024 ceasefire that ended the last Hezbollah-Israel war, when residents came back in droves and immediately set about rebuilding their shops and homes. Hussein Nahleh, a 33-year-old engineer who had been displaced to Beirut by the war, said his home had been destroyed but that he wanted to come back to Nabatieh anyway to attend Ashura. He was being hosted by people in the city whose homes were still standing. A few men next to Nahleh turned their faces to the sky and pointed. High in the distance, an Israeli drone circled above them, watching the men gather for the ceremony. As mourners marched, civil defence crews worked to pull bodies from the rubble. They had marked the sites of airstrikes in previously inaccessible areas during the war and were now using the ceasefire to sift through the rubble for remains. Not all areas were reachable; the Israeli army had shelled near ambulances on Tuesday as they approached areas south of the city to put out a fire. “Here in Nabatieh, it still is the same; it’s even harder. It’s unclear whether there’s a ceasefire or not,” said Hussein Fakih, the regional head of the Nabatieh civil defence. He interrupted the interview to take a phone call. He returned, teary-eyed. “You will have to excuse me. I just got word from our daughter that our house was destroyed by the Israelis.”
It began with the fate of hostages. Donald Trump’s first recorded foray into politics was sparked by the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, which saw 52 American diplomats held incommunicado for 444 days. The event set the stage for more than four decades of torturous relations between the US and Iran. It may also have kickstarted Trump’s long journey to the White House, which is now in danger of being defined by his decision to attack Iran’s Islamic regime. In October 1980, a standoff that had started a year earlier had ballooned into a national trauma, with the hostages still in captivity and then president Jimmy Carter flailing in the face of Iranian intransigence. Trump lashed out in an NBC interview with Rona Barrett, one of the US’s most noted gossip writers of the time. “That they hold our hostages is just absolutely, and totally ridiculous,” he told Barrett, arguing the crisis should have been resolved with a military invasion. “That this country sits back and allows a country such as Iran to hold our hostages, to my way of thinking, is a horror, and I don’t think they’d do it with other countries.” Within a month, Carter – who had been rendered a symbol of US powerlessness as Iranian revolutionaries chanted “America can’t do a damn thing” – was defeated in a landslide by his Republican opponent, Ronald Reagan. Forty-seven years later, the psychic ripple effect of that searing international drama may have been uppermost in Trump’s mind as he took the fateful decision to launch a war against Iran that he predicted would be finished quickly, but which swiftly spiralled out of control. He referenced the hostage crisis on the opening day of the war, as he sought to justify a campaign for which he had done next to nothing to prepare the American public in advance. Trump also repeatedly invoked Carter as the model of the president he would never be: a man who allowed his presidency to be defined, and ultimately ruined, by a second-rate power that should be no match for the US. Yet three and a half months after launching a war that was meant to resolve Washington’s Iran problem once and for all, Trump now finds himself in a position that uncannily resembles that of his disdained predecessor. An array of unpalatable options – chiefly the unacceptably high political costs of deploying ground troops – have rendered American military strength moot, just as it was in Carter’s time, when a hostage rescue attempt foundered catastrophically in the desert. More belittling still, Trump is fulfilling the same role of foil previously accorded to the unfortunate Carter by an ideological Islamic regime unsure of its domestic standing, but determined to stay in power. Initially staged by militant students acting without approval from above, the 1979-81 embassy siege was embraced by Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, as a means of safeguarding the fledgling Islamic Republic from its internal opponents. Likewise, with its death toll of an estimated 1,700 civilians and devastating strikes on civilian infrastructure, Trump’s ill-judged war is serving as a source of renewed legitimation for a regime that was facing an existential crisis after killing far more of its own citizenry in mass protests last January. After the first military strikes that killed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on 28 February, Trump urged Iranians in a televised address to rise up and “take over your own government”. Whether from shock at the assault on their country, or fear of a ruthless regime, Iran’s population declined to heed the call. Trump, having hailed Khamenei’s demise, changed tack to saying it would “be a pleasure” to meet his son and supposedly more uncompromising successor, Mojtaba. From would-be regime changer who promised demonstrators that “help is on its way”, Trump – like Carter before him – has become the theocracy’s involuntary validator of its claims to rule. That role is rendered crystal clear by the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed on Wednesday. “The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs,” clause 2 of the text says, according to readout provided by US officials, in language that appears designed to satisfy the regime’s desire for security guarantees. Diaspora Iranians, many of whom lambasted Barack Obama for signing the 2015 nuclear pact with Tehran, and who embraced Trump as the last best hope for regime change, are in a state of bewilderment. Reza Pahlavi, son of the former monarch overthrown in the 1979 revolution, summarised their mood eloquently in Washington recently, criticising the White House for “mixed signals” which were, he said “confusing the hell out of everybody”. But the backlash from disaffected Iranians pales in comparison with the fissures in Trump’s own base. Vocal America First-ers in the president’s Maga movement were opposed to the war from the beginning, seeing it as betrayal of his promise to kick the habit of Middle East “forever wars” for which he had repeatedly condemned previous presidents. Traditional Republican Iran-hawks, who vociferously supported war, detect something that ranks worse in Trump’s eyes: weakness. In their minds, the strongman president has surrendered leverage over Iran’s nuclear programme merely to secure the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war started. Heaping on the indignity, Trump now has to endure the affront of some of the US’s most prestigious media outlets proclaiming defeat, including a New York Times editorial headlined “President Trump Lost This War”. After leaving office to the bitter echoing soundtrack of the hostage crisis, Carter’s reputation slowly recovered, bolstered by his post-presidential work as a human rights crusader. Yet Iran, which went from ally to implacable foe on his watch, mars his legacy to this day. Given the country’s geostrategic heft, Trump now faces comparable obloquy, whatever the short-term political dividends of falling fuel costs from reopening the Hormuz strait. Humility would surely have guided him on to a more cautious path. Besides Carter, Iran nearly derailed Reagan’s presidency after it was revealed he had traded arms to the Islamic regime in return for its help in securing the release of US hostages held by its Shia proxy, Hezbollah, in Beirut – thereby providing an incentive for it to seize more hostages. Even George W Bush, seen as the chief “forever wars” exponent after embarking on open-ended campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, heeded the historic track record and steered clear of direct confrontation with Iran. Not so Trump, who boasted of doing what no president before him had the guts to do. Now it has landed him in uncertain territory, and left him at risk of looking like the thing he most disdains: a loser, while Iran’s leaders claim victory. There is a catch. The MOU deal’s sustainability is contingent on a final settlement over Iran’s uranium enrichment activities within a 60-day deadline. The issues are complex, and mutual mistrust rife. Iranian fears – vocalised by hardliners, but also harboured by more pragmatic negotiators, such as the parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister – remain that ostensibly generous US terms are a ruse, designed to lull Iran into a fall sense of security before military attacks resume. Just as in 1979, Iran’s leaders remain in a state of high alert. But this time, they have a tool infinitely more powerful than the long-shuttered US embassy at their disposal: control over the strait of Hormuz, and its ability to make or break the global economy. Two generations after the geopolitical psychodrama that first drew him into politics, Trump is facing another hostage drama. But the figure at the centre of it this time is himself, and his own political fortunes, which seem to be in Iranian hands. It would have felt familiar to Carter.