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Iran says a deal with Oman to reopen the strait of Hormuz is close to being finalised – Middle East crisis live

Donald Trump has hit back at media reports suggesting the US was running low on weapons after five months of war with Iran. He said the US has “massive amounts of “munitions,” especially of certain types”, without giving further detail. The Washington Post reported that the US president and defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, clashed during a cabinet meeting at Camp David last Friday over the munitions shortages. CNN also reported that dwindling supplies of long-range guided missiles and air defence interceptors have constrained the US’s military capabilities in the conflict with Iran. According to sources cited by the network, the US has depleted nearly 80% of its terminal high-altitude area defence (THAAD) interceptors and 50% of its Patriot systems, leaving stockpiles “dangerously low”. The Pentagon spokesperson, Sean Parnell, said the reports were “fictional”. Writing on his Truth Social app, Trump said: The U.S. has massive amounts of “munitions,” especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the U.S. as needed. Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country’s history. The “leakers” of these treasonous statements are being hunted down. Long term jail sentences will be sought!

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Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries as Moscow continues attacks on Ukrainian cities – Europe live

Ukraine could benefit from a Lockheed Martin project to build a new, lower-cost Patriot interceptor, the PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector (ACE) missile, Reuters has reported. The news agency, citing defence and US government sources, said that despite Donald Trump casting doubt on a deal for Ukraine to build desperately needed Patriots, “no order was given to halt the discussions”, and talks continued with US arms makers, military officials and others. Ukraine has proven adept at producing large volumes of dramatically cheaper yet equally or more effective missiles and drones compared with those made by western allies.

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Israeli strike that killed journalist in Lebanon was war crime, say rights groups

An Israeli strike that killed Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil and injured her colleague Zeinab Faraj in April was a war crime, three rights organisations said on Thursday. Investigations from Human Rights Watch (HRW), Amnesty International and Legal Agenda showed that Israel deliberately and directly attacked Khalil and Faraj, with apparent knowledge that they were civilians. The organisations called for the attacks to be investigated as war crimes, while HRW called for states to halt arm sales to Israel and put targeted sanctions on Israeli officials responsible for ongoing crimes. Deliberate attacks on civilians, which both journalists were, is a war crime. Israel has killed at least 15 journalists in Lebanon and 210 in Gaza since 2023, according to the UN human rights office. The reports also indicated that Israel delayed Lebanese ambulances from reaching Khalil and Faraj for hours – at one pointing dropping stun grenades on Lebanese Red Cross workers and firing on their ambulances. The delay in rescue might have led to Khalil’s death, as hospital reports indicate that she might have still been alive hours after an Israeli strike toppled a building on top of her and Faraj. “The evidence is clear that the Israeli military knew, or should have, that Faraj and Khalil were civilians, but attacked them anyway, and then prevented paramedics from rescuing them for hours,” said Ramzi Kaiss, Lebanon researcher at Human Rights Watch. Israel said it “regrets any harm caused to journalists,” and that the journalists were killed “as part of a series of events” during which two Hezbollah military operatives were killed. There was about two hours between the initial strike that killed the two men Israel said were in Hezbollah, and a second strike that targeted a building the journalists were sheltering in. Amal Khalil was a 42-year-old journalist working for al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper, while Zeinab Faraj was a 21-year-old freelance camerawoman and photojournalist. Both had been active in covering the war in Lebanon over the last three years. On 22 April 2026, the pair drove to the village of al-Tiri, south Lebanon, to verify reports that Israeli troops had left the area. They drove behind a car carrying Ali Nabil Bazzi, a municipal official of the city of Bint Jbeil, as well as Mohammed Hourani, a friend of the mayor. Al-Tiri was in what Israel calls its “security zone” in southern Lebanon, which its troops occupy. Amnesty said that despite the Israeli military calling it a military zone and barring people from going there, it is still required to distinguish between civilians and combatants. At 2.25pm, after entering al-Tiri, the car carrying Bazzi and Hournai was struck, killing the men. Khalil called the Lebanese civil defence and requested assistance. The civil defence drove to the entry of the village, where they were told to stop at a military checkpoint while they waited for authorisation from the Israeli military to enter the village safely. Rescue crews operating in areas of south Lebanon where fighting is taking place or which the Israeli military occupies must coordinate with the “mechanism”, a deconfliction channel, to get safe passage. Among others, the Israeli military must give approval for requests for civil defence to get safe passage. By 5pm, the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon had given a safe route for civil defence to follow to enter the town, but Israel had not yet given its approval. While waiting for the civil defence to arrive, Faraj and Khalil left their car and sought shelter elsewhere. Israeli quadcopters circled low overhead while the two journalists waited, Faraj said. “The drones came extremely close through the roof, less than a metre from my face and Amal’s,” she said. At 3.31pm, a member of the Lebanese civil defence called Khalil and urged her to get into her car and drive out of the village, as he had not yet received permission from the mechanism to enter the village. Around nine minutes later, Israel struck the journalists’ car, injuring both women. “Glass and debris flew towards us. My ear felt like it burst. She [Amal Khalil] was bleeding heavily from the nose and head and had shrapnel wounds in her arm and thigh; she couldn’t move her leg,” Farj said. The two women crawled into a nearby building for shelter. They both continued calling people, asking for assistance, but were told they could not be rescued until authorisation was given from the mechanism. At 4.25pm, Israel conducted a third strike, bombing the building where they were sheltering, collapsing it and burying both women under the rubble. At 5pm, permission was given to the Lebanese Red Cross to enter the village. They were able to evacuate Faraj, who had a fractured skull, severe injuries to her right leg and eye, and a crushed hand. Rescuers could not rescue Khalil, who was trapped under rubble. The rescuers came under attack by an Israeli quadcopter, which dropped a stun grenade near them. Witnesses also said they heard bursts of gunfire during the evacuations, and HRW reviewed photographs of bulletholes in the ambulances consistent with small arms fire. The rescuers were forced to withdraw with only Faraj. The Israeli military finally granted the request for rescue crews to re-enter the town at 8.15pm. Khalil’s body was recovered at 11pm. An examination of her body at the nearby Tebnine hospital showed that she probably died at 7pm – two-and-a-half hours after she was struck for the last time. She was trapped under the rubble during that time, waiting to be rescued, while the Israeli military prevented rescue crews from saving her life. All three organisations have demanded accountability for Khalil’s killing, and described it as part of a larger pattern of impunity by the Israeli military towards civilians. “The impunity enjoyed by Israeli forces for the killing of journalists and other civilians in Lebanon over the past three years has enabled the Israeli military to continue with its unlawful airstrikes, including direct attacks on civilians,” said Heba Morayef, director for the Middle East and north Africa at Amnesty International. “It is well past time that the international community impose a comprehensive arms embargo on Israel,” Morayef added.

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Thursday briefing: ​Is this the final whistle for Gianni Infantino at Fifa?

Good morning. In every pub where I watched this summer’s World Cup unfold, two motifs were shared by supporters. Yes, football was coming home, and also the (frankly more firmly held belief) that Gianni Infantino was a wrong’un. As in matchday stadiums, boos would routinely erupt when cameras cut to the Fifa boss; a proper panto villain. Regardless, he looked poised to cruise to victory in next year’s vote for Fifa president, despite this competition’s controversies – Fifa’s jaw-dropping, unprecedented overturning of US striker Folarin Balogun’s red card after Donald Trump’s lobbying chief among them. Undeterred, more than 200 of Fifa’s 211 member associations still backed his fourth term. Then last week, his Fifa Forward Enterprise plans were revealed: Infantino’s scheme to flog a stake in Fifa competitions to profit-seeking investors. World football has reacted with revolt, resignations and strongly worded statements. A growing chorus wants Infantino out. Yesterday, he gathered Fifa bigwigs for crisis management. But how did the gatekeeper of the beautiful game make things so ugly? That’s the topic for today’s First Edition, answered with the help of Guardian reporter Paul MacInnes, who has closely followed Infantino’s tenure. First, this morning’s headlines: Five big stories UK news | A woman has been arrested after four men were stabbed in Covent Garden, central London, police said. Education | Jason Arday, the Cambridge professor accused of plagiarism and embellishment, has resigned after the university announced he was to face new investigations into his qualifications and career. Ukraine | Nato is working to get Ukraine the air defences it “urgently needs”, its secretary general has said, after Kyiv failed to shoot down a single Russian missile in an attack on Wednesday. Middle East crisis | Iran and Oman have reached an understanding on ⁠the geographic coordinates for a shipping route through the strait of Hormuz, and ⁠a joint announcement ⁠is being finalised provided certain third parties do not interfere, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said. US news | Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary for US Senate in Michigan, becoming the latest leftwing candidate to capture the party’s nomination ahead of November’s midterm elections. In depth: ‘It’s hard to dispute that football’s legitimacy is being undermined’ Barely two days after details of Fifa Forward Enterprise (FFE) emerged, came Infantino’s first major blow. Last Thursday, European football’s governing body Uefa announced its members had unanimously voted to boycott all Fifa competitions until FFE was scrapped. Of the six regional federations, two others soon expressed disdain at the proposals. Carlos Cordeiro, a senior Infantino adviser, announced he was quitting. Fifa chief operating officer Kevin Lamour said staff had been “deceived”. Pressure mounted until the weekend, when Fifa relented and scrapped the proposal. This backtracking hasn’t dispelled dissent. Uefa says it’s lost confidence in Infantino. Legendary Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger – a key Infantino hire at Fifa – said abandoning FFE was “absolutely necessary and beyond question”. Meanwhile Fifa’s secretary general wrote of “a sad and reproachable series of events” and that individuals “come and go” in a leaked internal memo. Jordan’s football chief has accused Infantino’s administration of “blackmail”. Portugal icon Luís Figo didn’t hold back, labelling Infantino’s actions “the lowest, most deceitful and cravenly self-interested behaviour I have ever witnessed”. At least four countries have now withdrawn their support for his reelection, with England set to follow suit, and more expected. “Many would like him to resign on principle,” says Paul, “but that hasn’t happened.” Yesterday, after a meeting in Morocco, Fifa confirmed that Infantino will remain as president. In a statement, which also revealed that Infantino has sent written apologies to the Fifa council and the member associations for failing to consult them over the World Cup sell-off, the world governing body said that he retains the full support of his leadership team. “Currently, it feels like the pressure has dropped slightly,” Paul tells me. “There’ll be discussions about how the ante is upped again. If he doesn’t fall quickly, nations might assume he won’t go, cut their losses and stick with him. Without a well-established rival and widespread withdrawal of support, he’ll likely win re-election.” Because, despite the sleaze, when it comes to cold hard cash, Infantino has proven effective. This year’s World Cup generated $15bn – a tripling under his leadership. “Infantino has proven himself an elite executive when it comes to his priority: generating more revenue,” says Paul. In his rhetoric, at least, Infantino talks of boosting funds to footballing nations. And for the lesser-resourced, non-European football associations, this extra cash is gamechanging, even if Infantino’s $40m offer to those who backed his plans looked remarkably bribe-like. *** The clean-up candidate It’s hard to believe that Infantino was elected as a clean-up candidate. In 2015, after the US Department of Justice indicted 14 Fifa figures for racketeering conspiracy and corruption, Fifa’s last president, Sepp Blatter, announced his resignation. Blatter had been caught up in a long-running corruption case, alongside Uefa boss Michel Platini. The pair were accused (then acquitted, twice) of misappropriating £1.7m of Fifa cash. All of this, and the highly controversial awarding of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups to Russia and Qatar respectively, made Blatter’s position untenable. There was a gap at the top of world football and with Platini out, no obvious European successor. (Of Fifa’s nine permanent presidents, eight have been European). Enter Infantino, then second-in-command at Uefa. Central to his pitch was World Cup expansion. He had a message to world football, Paul says. “It’s not our money, it’s yours. And Fifa will make more for you.” It marked a rhetorical shift, with “a sense post-Blatter that execs had been lining their own pockets.” Looking to Europe, he offered another promise. “We’re going to clean the stables,” Paul recalls, “introduce new governance structures.” Infantino was perceived as a strait-laced Swiss bureaucrat – an image he projected. On his victory in 2016, he spoke of change. “Fifa has gone through sad times, moments of crisis. But those times are over,” he said. “We enter now a new era. We’ll restore the image of Fifa and make sure everybody will be happy with what we do.” *** A quick backlash Scandal came thick and fast. His election campaign first: Infantino declared spending €500,000 of Uefa funds to drum up support, but sources suggested the figure was closer to €1m. Fifa’s ethics committee began to investigate; Infantino organised the removal of its chair and members. Weeks after taking office, he was named in the Panama Papers, pulled into his own corruption scandal. There was a criminal probe after “indications of criminal conduct” in Switzerland. Swiss prosecutors subsequently closed their investigations, satisfied that suspicions against Infantino had been “invalidated”. “These stories have been endless,” says Paul. Take the Qatar World Cup, which Infantino inherited. Infantino committed to protecting human rights and remedying failures. These were widely documented, but no compensation fund was created. Fifa refused to act on fan safety in Qatar, where same-sex sexual acts are criminalised. Meanwhile Infantino goaded critics with that monologue: “Today I feel Qatari, today I feel Arab, today I feel African, today I feel gay, today I feel disabled, today [like] a migrant worker.” “That’s where it properly kicked off,” says Paul. “He became a real antagonist in the eyes of football fans.” Infantino’s awarding of the 2034 World Cup to Saudi Arabia was widely criticised. His 2022 proposal to make the World Cup biennial (which, he claimed, could stop migrants from finding “death in the sea”) was botched. He invented a Trump-placating peace prize. In fact, he’d even attempted an FFE style ploy before. His 2018 proposal to fatten up the Club World Cup with private investor cash was “sprung on people with no consultation and little notice,” says Paul, adding that it “saw huge backlash before Infantino backed down.” *** The future of Fifa What incentivised Infantino to try to push through FFE has caused speculation. His multimillion pound salary and ample perks, already come with status that offers him access to the world’s most powerful figures. There were reports that Infantino might have eventually headed up FFE at a basic salary of $30m but Fifa have denied discussions on this have taken place. But this mess isn’t exclusively of Infantino’s (or Blatter’s) making. Paul has been speaking to academics, lawyers and football officials. “There’s a shared view reform is needed.” Many point to the need to break Fifa up: “Organising the biggest football tournament, while also regulating it, is untenable,” says Paul. Others see this as a chance to address inequality and elitism in the game. And European figures are also manoeuvring to push for external Fifa regulation. When doping scandals threatened to delegitimize sport, national governments and governance bodies founded the World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada). “It’s hard to dispute that football’s legitimacy is being undermined,” says Paul. “Wada proves sporting organisations needn’t mark their own homework.” There are suggestions that the EU, OECD or even the UN should play a role, to “create a body outside football to handle complaints when they arise. So many complaints against Infantino have just disappeared. Someone needs to be able to hold Fifa accountable.” What else we’ve been enjoying I thought Symeon Brown was excellent in yesterday’s Long Wave newsletter, on Britain’s booming Black bourgeois class and why Brits just can’t seem to acknowledge it. Poppy Five US states held midterm primaries this week, with significant successes for progressive candidates. This explainer from Chris Stein on the Guardian’s US politics team helped me get a grip on the results. Michael I enjoyed Arwa Mahdawi’s take on the Trump officials who won’t just … focus on their actual jobs. Poppy My boyfriend is a real anchovy-head, and cans of surplus fishy oil often float in our fridge for days before eventual binning. No longer, with this salsa verde recipe from Tom Hunt I’m making as I type. Michael I was also thoroughly ruffled by our profile on the Phillipines’ so-called “Cockroach Lord”. Poppy Sport Cycling | Race favourite Demi Vollering won a three-way sprint to claim stage five at the Tour de France Femmes. Football | Eva Olid has described being appointed as the Manchester United Women head coach as a dream come true, after signing a two-year contract until 2028 with the option of a further year. Boxing | The former heavyweight world champion Joseph Parker ⁠said on Wednesday tnat he had been cleared to fight ⁠again after failing ⁠a dope test last October. The front pages “Academic resigns amid plagiarism accusations”, is the Guardian’s front page today, the Telegraph writes “Cambridge professor quits after false claims”, the Times has “Plagiarism row professor resigns from Cambridge”, and the Mail’s headline is “‘Plagiarism professor’ resigns as Cambridge investigate”. The Express writes “Early release is a ‘betrayal’ of hero police officer”, and on a similar topic, Metro has “My lad’s still serving time after phone theft in 2005”. Elsewhere, The FT leads with “China begins global tax hunt reaching back decades as fiscal pressure grows”, the Sun has “West End stab rampage”, and the Mirror, on new mental health centres, writes “Help is on the way”. The Latest Is Ukraine facing a major anti-missile shortage? At least 17 people were killed and more than 40 injured in another round of deadly Russian strikes on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pleaded for more air defence weapons, saying ballistic missile interceptors ‘could have saved the lives of those killed today’. For months, Ukraine has been warning about shortages after Donald Trump backtracked on his promise to let Ukraine manufacture missiles locally. In response to the attack, the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen said ‘Russia must pay’ – but will it? Lucy Hough talks to the Guardian’s Russia affairs correspondent, Pjotr Sauer. Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Olaoluwa Olowu photographed amateur boxer Elizabeth Boakye in Accra after noticing that the city’s visual culture of boxing overwhelmingly celebrated men. Wanting to place a woman within that public archive, she returned with Elizabeth and positioned her beneath a mural of a male fighter. The portrait reflects both the visibility of male boxers and the absence of women, while acknowledging Elizabeth’s work with the national team, the Black Hitters. The image forms part of Women Who Fight, Olowu’s project documenting Ghana’s women boxers and ensuring they enter the sport’s visual record. Olowu says: “Elizabeth’s presence speaks to the women who are also part of the sport but are rarely represented in the same way.” This piece is part of our Women behind the lens series. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

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Spain’s Pedro Sánchez is a progressive outlier in Europe – and over Ceuta, he is being made to pay for it | Eoghan Gilmartin

The dramatic footage last Thursday of thousands of migrants entering Spain’s north African enclave of Ceuta generated an online frenzy among the far right. And the alarmist rhetoric was also evident in the European mainstream, as EU leaders wasted little time attributing the chaotic scenes to Spain’s liberal immigration policies. In a letter organised by Italy and Denmark, and signed by 22 EU heads of government, they appeared to blame the crisis on Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s recent programme to regularise undocumented migrants, which received more than a million applications. They argued that Europe must “[address] all policies that can serve as pull factors”. This reaction displayed a striking lack of solidarity with a fellow EU member state. In an angry response, Sánchez called out the “prejudice, misinformation and attacks” of many of his peers. Yet his defiance, as well as the subsequent attempts by Brussels to display a united front, could not dispel the image of his government’s isolation during an acute emergency on its southern border. The Spanish prime minister might have taken a more prominent role on the world stage over the last year, above all through his opposition to the US war on Iran, but the Ceuta crisis also points to the narrowing margins for his brand of progressive foreign policy. In reality, Sánchez’s pursuit of accommodation with Morocco’s repressive monarchy – particularly over its occupation of the disputed territory of Western Sahara – stands at odds with his otherwise principled agenda on Palestine, Ukraine and Iran. And Ceuta is at the heart of this concession on values. Though unprecedented in scale, this is not the first time such an incident has taken place on the highly militarised border separating Morocco from the exclave. The EU’s response to the last mass incursion in 2021 was notably different. Then, after 10,000 mostly Moroccan citizens arrived in a 48-hour period, the European parliament closed ranks, adopting a resolution that accused Morocco of endangering their lives so as to exert “political pressure against Spain”. There seems little doubt that last week’s events, constituting a humanitarian tragedy in which at least 141 people died, also bore the hallmarks of such coercive diplomacy. Reports that Moroccan border guards offered little resistance during the influx, and even encouraged migrants to cross, followed a familiar playbook. Over the last decade, the Moroccan government has periodically relaxed border enforcement during moments of diplomatic tension with Spain, provoking mass crossings as a means of exerting pressure. Five years ago, Europe recognised that dynamic. This time, much of the political debate has instead focused on point-scoring against Spain’s centre-left administration. For Sánchez, this was a sharp reminder that the rightward shift in the EU has left him operating as a progressive outlier. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is not the only leader to treat the crisis as an opportunity to press for a harder line on migration. Those fomenting internal EU divisions simply underscored Europe’s weakness as a geopolitical actor: when faced with an apparent hybrid attack against a member state, it was unable to coordinate a collective response. The fact that Sánchez’s government was caught off guard also suggests a degree of complacency over the potential consequences of its refusal to allow the US access to its airbases during the Iran war. In the months prior to the border surge, prominent Republicans had already urged the Trump administration to retaliate by backing Morocco’s territorial claims to Ceuta, and Spain’s other north African exclave, Melilla. The combination of this sharp decline in US-Spanish relations, and Morocco’s increasing importance as a regional partner for the Trump White House, may have emboldened the country’s regime to once again target the border. Alongside Trump’s threats to cut off trade with Spain, his administration has also intervened more directly in Spanish domestic politics in recent months. Just weeks after Sánchez made his stand on Iran, the US Department of Homeland Security supplied messages from a cloned phone to Spanish corruption investigators that appeared to suggest former Socialist prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero may have lobbied for a pandemic-era loan for a Spanish airline with links to Venezuela. Few in Madrid doubt the political motivation for this intelligence transfer, and the ensuing political storm killed most of Sánchez’s momentum from his popular anti-war stance – as Zapatero, a key ally, was put under formal investigation. The coordinated pile-on from Trump and the wider Maga universe over the Ceuta crisis also raises the prospect of further efforts from Washington to target Sánchez politically, ahead of next year’s Spanish general election. Any such efforts would find a willing domestic partner in the Vox party, which has stood apart from much of Europe’s populist right by remaining uncritically aligned with Trump, even during the Iran war. Vox is Spain’s fastest-growing party since the 2023 general election, is polling in the high teens, and will play a pivotal role in any future rightwing alternative to Sánchez’s government. With that threat rumbling in the background, the Spanish PM must also navigate relations with Morocco in the wake of its latest act of coercion. Rather than publicly confronting Rabat, Sánchez has prioritised restoring cooperation and quickly containing the crisis, with the vast majority of the estimated 72,000 arrivals returned to Morocco within 24 hours. Yet this pragmatism carries obvious risks. Spain’s last major confrontation with Morocco in 2021-22 ended in a historic concession, as Sánchez abandoned decades of Spanish neutrality on Western Sahara to back Morocco’s plan to incorporate the former Spanish colony as an autonomous region within the Moroccan state. Last week’s events suggest this strategy of accommodation has failed to deliver the long-term stability in relations which Madrid sought. Sánchez’s leftwing coalition partner, Sumar, is now demanding a tougher line – including that Spain refuses to co-host the 2030 World Cup with Morocco. Morocco’s exact motives for acting now remain open to debate. The most plausible explanation lies in Sánchez’s visit to Algiers 10 days earlier to seal Spain’s rapprochement with its key gas supplier, Algeria, which is also Morocco’s chief rival over Western Sahara. The Ceuta crisis was probably the Moroccan regime’s reminder that any attempts by Madrid to rebalance its north African policies remain subject to its influence over migration flows. It also likely reflects Morocco’s longer-term ambition to advance its claims on Ceuta and Melilla, at a time when control of maritime checkpoints like the strait of Gibraltar have acquired renewed geopolitical importance. At the height of the crisis, Spain’s combative transport minister, Óscar Puente, posted on social media that he wanted “Spain to be a sovereign nation in an interconnected world, not a subsidiary of Trump or Netanyahu”. With much of Europe’s political class lying supine before Trump, Sánchez has been the most outspoken western leader willing to challenge Washington, not just on Iran, but also in rejecting the 5% defence spending target, pushing the EU to end its association agreement with Israel, and forging closer ties with China and nations of the global south. This is not an index of Sánchez’s radicalism so much as his wager that Spain has more to gain from adapting to the new geography of global economic power than it does from clinging to the old Atlantic order. Ceuta, however, is a reminder that such a wager is fraught with danger. Eoghan Gilmartin is a freelance journalist who has covered Spanish politics for Jacobin Magazine, Tribune, Novara Media and Open Democracy

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Nato to ‘urgently’ get air defences for Ukraine, as Zelenskyy warns of surge in Russian missile production

Nato is working to get Ukraine the air defences it “urgently needs”, its secretary general has said, after Kyiv failed to shoot down a single Russian missile in an attack on Wednesday, and as Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Moscow was seeking to significantly boost missile ⁠production ahead of winter. Speaking at a National Security and Defense Council meeting on winter resilience, the Ukrainian president did not rule out the idea that stalling missile supplies from western allies were “aimed at making Ukraine, so to speak, more willing to compromise” in peace talks with Russia. After meeting Nato’s Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy said: “It is important to cut through all red tape and make the necessary political decisions. Literally every day, people’s lives here in Ukraine depend on the resolve of our partners in Europe and the United States.” Russia launched 24 ballistic missiles in an overnight attack on Wednesday, killing at least 17 people. Preliminary data from the Ukrainian air force showed its defences shot down 98 of the 115 drones fired by Russia overnight, but none of the ballistic missiles. On Wednesday, Zelenskyy said that in the first half of 2026, supplies of air defence missiles from Ukraine’s allies had fallen to a third of their 2025 level. The president also warned that Moscow was looking to significantly increase ballistic missile ⁠production as winter neared, when it is expected to renew its campaign against Ukraine’s energy sector. Serhii Beskrestnov, an adviser to Ukraine’s president on the development of defence technology, estimated that Russia was capable of launching 100 ballistic missiles every month to attack logistic hubs, industrial facilities, food stores and warehouses. “The war of attrition has entered its next phase,” he said on the Telegram app. Ukraine has been short on US-made Patriot interceptors capable of downing Russian ballistic missiles since the ⁠start of the war. But in recent weeks, an acute shortage has come into focus, with Moscow pummelling Kyiv, on average, every three days in July alone. Zelenskyy said the shortage of interceptor missiles was mainly caused by the war in the Middle East. Patriot missile systems are the only system in Ukrainian service able to intercept the Russian Iskander-M, S-400 and Zircon missiles, according to the Ukrainian air force. Russia often combines ballistic missiles with cruise missiles, drones and decoys, forcing defenders to track many threats and ration scarce interceptors, but Ukraine says it has too few batteries and interceptors to properly protect itself. The interceptor shortage has become more acute as a result of the US-Israel war on Iran, which has consumed large numbers of Patriot and other interceptors. An analysis by the Associated Press estimated that the US Patriot inventory had fallen by at least 65% since before the war. The Pentagon claims it retains a deep arsenal of supplies. Production cannot immediately close the gap. Lockheed Martin delivered more than 600 of the newest model of interceptors in 2025 and is working toward annual capacity of 2,000 by the end of 2030. But according to some estimates, Gulf states collectively fired more than 1,100 interceptors in the first three months of the Iran war. Nato says Europe’s first Patriot missile production facility is expected to open in September in Germany. Political signals from Washington have also shifted. At a Nato summit last month, Donald Trump said the US would give Ukraine a licence to produce Patriots. About three weeks later, he said he had not made a final decision. Even with a licence, officials and experts estimate that starting production in Ukraine would take years. Despite Trump casting doubt on the deal last month, the US is pressing ahead with talks on allowing Ukraine to make Patriot interceptors, according to reports from Reuters. The discussions ⁠include an option for Ukraine to ⁠build some components for final assembly elsewhere in Europe, according to the report.

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Ukraine war briefing: Cut-price Patriot among options in desperate search for missile defence

Ukraine could benefit from a Lockheed Martin project to build a new, lower-cost Patriot interceptor, the PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector (ACE) missile, Reuters has reported. The news agency, citing defence and US government sources, said that despite Donald Trump casting doubt on a deal for Ukraine to build desperately needed Patriots, “no order was given to halt the discussions”, and talks continued with US arms makers, military officials and others. Ukraine has proven adept at producing large volumes of dramatically cheaper yet equally or more effective missiles and drones compared with those made by western allies. At least 17 people died on Wednesday as Kyiv again came under heavy Russian bombardment. Ukrainian forces, starved of suitable interceptors, were unable to shoot down a single missile. A US official told Reuters that the most feasible option for Patriots would be making some components in Ukraine and assembling them in Germany, where an older Patriot model is already made and the more advanced PAC-3 is expected to be produced as well. Trump has raised security concerns about handing over highly secretive Patriot blueprints in their entirety to Ukraine. Any plan for Ukraine to be involved in Patriot production could still take a year or more to come to fruition, officials have cautioned, with new component lines typically not up and running until three to seven years after a licensing deal is signed. Lockheed Martin suggested an accelerated timeline for Patriot PAC-3 ACE in an announcement on 20 July, emphasising that the use of the same launchers and software would speed up development. The interceptors would cost less than half of a normal Patriot missile, it claimed. Russian strikes ⁠on homes killed three people in Ukraine’s eastern city of Balakliia, authorities said on Thursday. Another three people were killed ‌and ‌at least 19 wounded in Russian ‌attacks on settlements in the northern region of Sumy. Twelve more were wounded in the city of Sumy itself following an attack ‌with guided aerial bombs, the Ukrainian police said. A drone attack on a van wounded six in the southern region of Kherson, the ⁠regional administration said. A recently repaired major Russian oil refinery was back on fire on Thursday morning after being hit by Ukrainian drones for the second night in a row, according to online monitors. The Slavneft-Yanos plant refines about 15m tonnes of oil a year. Over Wednesday night the Russian regional governor announced Ukrainian drones were attacking Yaroslavl oblast. Germany’s interior minister warned of “a new level of danger” after a drone carrying explosives was found at Leipzig airport, while a DHL plane in flight was hit by a flying object. German police used a bomb disposal robot to defuse and destroy the explosive device. Deborah Cole and Andrew Roth write that suspicion has fallen on Russia given the airport’s status as a Nato and German military logistics hub, and as the base for Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines in Europe. The quadcopter fitted with an explosive device was found near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane, according to media reports. Vladimir Tkachuk, the head of Russian drone manufacturer Uraldronzavod, was critically injured in a car bombing, in what appeared to be the latest in a series of assassination attempts targeting figures linked to the country’s war in Ukraine, Pjotr Sauer writes. A bomb planted beneath his Mercedes exploded, according to Russian state media, killing his bodyguard. On Saturday an explosion outside an upmarket restaurant in central Moscow killed five people. Col Gen Aleksandr Chayko, the commander of Russia’s aerospace forces, was reportedly celebrating his birthday at the restaurant. Ukrainian authorities have ordered hundreds of families with children to leave the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine because of intensifying Russian strikes. Russian forces are within 20km (12 miles) of the city’s eastern edge, according to DeepState, a war monitor close to the Ukrainian army. A total of 525 children and their guardians are being forcibly evacuated. Kramatorsk is part of the “fortress belt” that Ukraine’s troops are fighting to hold. Russia’s Saratov refinery stopped processing crude oil on 2 August after ⁠a Ukrainian drone attack damaged production facilities and triggered fires at the plant owned by ⁠the country’s ⁠largest oil company Rosneft, two industry sources told Reuters. They said the refinery’s CDU-6 crude ‌distillation unit, its ‌only crude processing unit, was shut down. The unit, with a nominal capacity of 20,000 tonnes of oil per day, could take between two and three weeks to repair. Russia’s imports of gasoline and diesel from Belarus surged in July because of Ukrainian strikes disabling Russian oil refineries, according to calculations by Reuters.

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Toronto zoo announces birth of pygmy hippo calf, third for mother Kindia

The Toronto Zoo has announced the birth of a female pygmy hippo calf. Kindia, the zoo’s 20-year-old pygmy hippo, started showing signs of labor at around 8.15am last Sunday, it said. Around four hours later, the calf’s feet emerged and after 1.5 hours of active labor, Kindia successfully gave birth to the baby pygmy hippo. Within 15 minutes of birth, the calf began trying to stand and was “confidently navigating the space” a few hours later, the zoo said, adding that the calf was seen nursing approximately 4.5 hours after birth. The zoo has not identified the calf yet, but said that it is doing well alongside its mother. According to the zoo, the newborn is Kindia’s third calf. Kindia became pregnant after she was introduced to a 31-year-old male pygmy hippo named Harvey for eight days in January. “This wonderful news comes with both hope and caution,” the zoo said. “Kindia successfully raised her daughter Penelope in 2018, and calf survival for this species can be challenging. Our team will continue to closely monitor both mom and calf around the clock during these important first days to ensure they continue to progress well together.” Noting the species’ endangered status on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s red list, Dolf DeJong, the Toronto Zoo’s CEO, said: “Welcoming a pygmy hippo calf is far more than a celebration of new life. Pygmy hippos are endangered, and their wild populations continue to decline due to habitat loss and human pressures. “This birth represents the critical role modern accredited zoos play in conservation, scientific collaboration, and maintaining healthy populations that contribute to the long-term survival of the species.” Only approximately 2,000 to 3,000 pygmy hippos are believed to remain in the wild. With adult pygmy hippos weighing anywhere from 330lb to 660lb and standing around 2.5ft tall, the species are native to the forests and swamps of west Africa. In recent decades however, pygmy hippos have faced growing threats to their habitat including logging, mining, farming activities as well as human settlement.