Friday briefing: How will Ukraine fare this winter as Trump pushes for a controversial peace deal?
A week ago Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Ukrainians that they faced “a very tough choice – either the loss of our dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner”. The warning came as the Trump administration increased pressure on Zelenskyy to accept a peace deal that appears to secure all of Vladimir Putin’s war aims – a proposal European leaders have described as capitulation. With the war about to enter its fourth winter, there seems no sign that either side has the capability to make a significant military breakthrough. Neither the incessant infantry grind on the eastern front, Moscow’s aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities, nor Kyiv’s long-range strikes on infrastructure inside Russia look likely to shift the equilibrium any time soon. For today’s newsletter I spoke to Shaun Walker, the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent, about why the US is applying so much pressure on Zelenskyy to make a deal, how the latest diplomatic moves are being received in Moscow, and what any agreement may mean for Ukrainians living through a fourth year of war. Here are today’s main stories. Five big stories Politics | Keir Starmer says Labour “kept to our manifesto” over budget tax rises. The prime minister sought to rebuff claims Labour had broken its tax promises. Workers’ rights | A flagship policy that would have given workers the right to claim unfair dismissal after their first day on the job is to be ditched by the government in favour of a six month-threshold. US news | Donald Trump has said he will “permanently pause migration from all third world countries,” hours after the president announced that one of the two national guard members who were shot in Washington DC had died. Hong Kong | Rescue operations inside the Hong Kong apartment complex that was engulfed by fire on Wednesday are “almost complete”, fire officials have said, as the death toll reached 94 early on Friday with scores more missing. Ukraine | Vladimir Putin has said that the outline of a draft peace plan discussed by the US and Ukraine could serve as a basis for future negotiations to end the war – but insisted Ukraine would have to surrender territory for any deal to be possible. In depth: ‘The prospect of a military victory for either side seems fairly unlikely any time soon’
The 28-point plan outlined by the Trump administration envisages Ukraine giving up the eastern Donbas region – including areas it currently controls – shrinking its army, relinquishing long-range weapons and ruling out Nato membership. It is clearly not the kind of deal that would have been acceptable to the nation a few months into Russia’s invasion, but the reality on the ground has some analysts suggesting that a deal will have to be made sooner or later. With Washington signalling it wants movement, Kyiv is increasingly aware that diplomatic pressure may only intensify in the days and weeks ahead, especially with the US president seemingly dedicated to a tight deadline that may coincide with him getting Fifa’s brand-new peace prize on 5 December. *** Is there a military solution to this conflict? Shaun tells me that Russia still has “the military momentum”, but only in the bleakest sense. “They’ve shown they’re not really capable of taking territory without destroying it first. It’s this kind of slow, miserable advance where they take control of towns which are basically ruins by the time they get them.” While he doesn’t totally rule out a sudden collapse or surprise breakthrough, he says the prospect of either army sweeping across territory now looks unlikely. “The idea that the Russians are suddenly going to storm into big cities and occupy them doesn’t seem possible. Equally, the Ukrainians don’t look as if they’re capable of doing that either. The prospect of something that would look like a military victory for either side seems fairly unlikely any time soon” *** What could be an acceptable peace deal to Ukraine? Ukrainians are now “hugely fatigued” and, at this point, more people may be willing to contemplate a “painful compromise deal”, Shaun says. He could see Ukraine giving up significant territory if there were a sufficient security guarantee. This could look something like a Nato-style guarantee: for example, a wall along the contact line, which, if Russia were to cross in the future, would be defended militarily by the western allies. But there are huge question marks as to how that would work – and whether those western allies would have the appetite for it. “All this talk of the coalition of the willing, whether it is British, French, other troops on the ground … there may be some readiness to put some troops in Ukraine, but there’s clearly not a readiness to fight with Russia,” says Shaun. “What will happen if 10 of these troops get killed in a firefight? Will we enter a war with Russia? The whole western policy up to now has been: do everything you can to help Ukraine, but don’t get into war with Russia. That doesn’t seem like it’s going to change.” Without such a guarantee, Shaun says, Ukraine has no reason to believe that any deal wouldn’t just be broken in a year or two. *** How have the latest developments affected perception of the war in Russia? Shaun says that Russian elites were initially dismayed and reluctant when the war started. But that the feeling turned from disbelief to resigned commitment. State media has relentlessly framed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as a struggle against western aggression and the expansion of Nato. “Society has been mobilised. I think a lot of ordinary Russians have bought into that. They have bought into the idea that this is a defensive war against the west, not a colonial war against Ukraine.” Economically, Russia is under pressure but nowhere near collapse. “You certainly don’t get the sense that Putin feels he needs to end this or things will get difficult for him domestically,” he says. *** Where does this leave Putin? Shaun suggests that Putin has two bad choices in front of him. Carrying on the war indefinitely continues to put the country’s economy under strain – which could eventually result in unrest. But equally, ending the war when there has been so much loss, and it’s not really clear what has been won, won’t be an easy sacrifice for Putin. “You have all of these traumatised people who are going to be coming home from the front, all these people who are earning quite good money in the army,” says Shaun – “[and in the end] you’ve got a couple of small bits of territory in eastern Ukraine?” *** What does it mean for Zelenskyy? Zelenskyy remains an effective political communicator – but he is navigating his most precarious moment since the invasion. A corruption scandal involving people close to him has raised uncomfortable questions. We’ve seen him in a tight spot before, Shaun says, reminding me of the dressing down the Ukrainian leader got during a White House visit in February. Reading back the full transcript of those terse exchanges makes me recall how shocking an irreversible breach it appeared at the time. “In fact,” Shaun says, “the Americans kind of did him a favour with the timing of this new supposed peace deal, because just at the moment where Zelenskyy was facing major questions, you suddenly had what looked like a kind of existential threat being slapped on the table by the Trump administration. I think that focused minds.” While there is increasing disaffection with Zelenskyy’s style of government, mostly Shaun feels there is not appetite right now for a political mudfight. But there’s a question over how long that will last. “If you were a neutral political strategist, you might advise [Zelenskyy] that the best thing to do is to step down, and you’ll be remembered as the leader who saw off the Russians, rather than a leader who clung on to power amid corruption scandals. But of course, it’s never that easy. There are lots of people around him who depend on him.” The prospect of elections in Ukraine is also hard to fathom. They are a year overdue constitutionally, but the feeling has been you can’t have an election while at war. The 28-point plan calls for elections to be held within 100 days of the end of the war. Shaun has his doubts about this. “How destabilising is that going to be for a society where people are coming home from the front, all these political tensions that have been buried because everyone’s all together for the war effort – how is that all going to bubble to the surface? That also looks like a pretty tricky moment for Ukraine,” he says. *** So what next? The mood in Ukraine this winter is more despondent than at any point since the invasion began. “There have been increasing voices in Ukrainian society saying this has to end somehow,” Shaun tells me. “This winter is harder than ever.” The past two winters carried at least some sliver of hope. In late 2023, Ukrainians still believed the long-planned counteroffensive might turn the tide. In late 2024, there was a belief in some quarters that a Trump election victory might bring a “magical solution” that would suddenly transform Ukraine’s fortunes. “Going into this winter, there doesn’t seem to be any hope,” says Shaun. “There’s no plausible medium-term positive outcome for Ukraine.” For now, the best-case scenario looks like a continuation of the status quo: a grinding, attritional conflict in which Ukraine holds on to its sovereignty and prevents further territorial collapse. “In some ways that is a positive outcome – and there are definitely many worse outcomes than that,” Shaun says. “But it’s not much to motivate people to keep going.” What else we’ve been reading
Jack Seale’s lively review of the fifth and final season of Stranger Things acknowledges that, as grownups, the show’s stars don’t have the same appeal, but the gang still set traps, crawl through tunnels and recruit spies, all the way to a thrilling, bullet-dodging, joyful finale. Karen Alan Martin writes that if your phone, laptop or TV is on its last legs, Black Friday is a sensible time to replace it. But if you’re hoping to limit the ecological impact, it is worth considering refurbished options. Martin The grit, determination and sheer spirit of Karen Carney shines through Emine Saner’s interview with the former England footballer, as she reveals how online trolls nearly broke her and how Strictly gave her back her spark. Karen It is possibly a case of nominative determinism that Katharine Gammon got the gig for Nautilus to write about the “carbon hoofprint” of meat consumption in US cities, which is larger than the total carbon emissions of the UK. Martin The number of women being incarcerated is rising at three times the rate of men globally, in what experts say is a crisis driven by poverty, abuse and discriminatory laws. Karen Sport
Football | Nottingham Forest beat Malmö 3-1 to enhance their hopes of qualifying for the Europa League knockout phase, while a Donyell Malen brace led Aston Villa to the verge of automatic qualification for the last 16 against a backdrop of crowd violence from Young Boys supporters. Crystal Palace went down 2-1 to Strasbourg. Football | Martin O’Neill wrote a memorable final postscript in his history with Celtic in Europe as the interim manager led his team to a 3-1 win over Feyenoord, while Rangers earned their first Europa League point of the season with a 1-1 draw to 10-man Braga. Formula One | Lando Norris insisted nothing has changed in terms of his focus on sealing his first Formula One world championship after both he and his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri were disqualified in Las Vegas. Something for the weekend Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now
TV Poison Water | ★★★★★ In the summer of 1988, residents in north Cornwall noticed their tap water was either blue or black and gelatinous or sticky. Because of a treatment facility error, it had been laced with toxic amounts of aluminium sulphate, but it would take more than two weeks for those in power to admit there was a problem. Residents were told to keep drinking, despite an outbreak of ill health. This damning one-off relies heavily on a BBC Horizon episode from the time and other archive material, but taking a four-decade step back from events casts them in a different light. And there are enough new interviews here – with residents, experts and politicians – to bring the whole thing discomfitingly into the present. Hannah J Davies Music The Durutti Column: The Return of the Durutti Column | ★★★★★ When the band whose name this record bears split acrimoniously just before they were supposed to record it, a Factory Records boss suggested their guitarist Vini Reilly, poleaxed by depression, try an experimental session with producer Martin Hannett. Unaware that he was making an album, Reilly “absolutely hated” the finished product, but took solace in his sense that it would never find a wider audience. Forty-five years on, it has been given the classic album deluxe treatment. From the moment Reilly’s guitar appears on the opener, you feel drawn into a secret world, filled with private feelings. It rarely sounds anguished, but you wonder if Reilly’s desperate circumstances have some bearing on music that, for all its lush melodiousness, feels emotionally raw. Exquisite. Alexis Petridis Film Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | ★★★★☆ Daniel Craig returns as private detective Benoit Blanc. This time, he’s in upstate New York investigating the murder of a Catholic priest, Monsignor Jefferson Wicks, a ferocious alpha male played by Josh Brolin. Prime suspect is the sweet-natured junior priest Father Jud Duplenticy (Josh O’Connor). But the situation is complicated by a close-knit group of troubled parishioners played by the likes of Andrew Scott, Kerry Washington and Glenn Close – all at the top of their game. By the end, there’s a motive for each. The enjoyment is, for me, most intense before the actual murder itself, when the characters joust unencumbered by suspicion. After the murder, it’s still thoroughly enjoyable but should probably be considered more of a deadpan-absurdist ensemble comedy than a whodunnit. Peter Bradshaw Art Tala Madani: Daughter BWASM | ★★★★☆ For years now the Iranian-born US artist has been painting Shit Mom, a fetid smear of a human figure intended as a subversion of feminine, maternal ideals. And in the painter’s latest show, Shit Mom has adopted an AI daughter. As they interact across the canvases, the gleaming mechanical perfection of the daughter – born motherless, hence the show’s title “Daughter BWASM”, or Born Without a Shit Mom – gets streaked with smudges of filthy brown. The more the mum cares for her daughter, the more she taints her. Madani makes big, clever points in the most intentionally childish, confrontational way. I don’t think these are intended to be beautiful, decorative images; they’re funny, satirical takedowns of societal norms. Eddy Frankel The front pages
“Ministers ditch manifesto pledge for job protection from day one” is the Guardian’s lead story. The i paper splashes on “Labour U-turn on worker rights – as PM denies Budget tax rises break promise”, the Times says “‘Day one’ protection of workers abandoned” and the FT has “Labour dilutes flagship worker rights bill following pressure from business”. “Starmer rips up Rayner’s rights bill” is the Telegraph splash, while the Sun runs with “Tax Grab Fallout” and the Mail says “The brain drain from Starmer’s socialist chaos”. “Dando cop’s Serbian hitman probe” is the Mirror on Jill Dando’s 1999 murder. Today in Focus
The NGO worker on trial for people-smuggling in Lesbos In 2018, Seán Binder was 23 and a volunteer with a search and rescue organisation working with asylum seekers in Lesbos, Greece. After months of successful operations, one night turned out very differently and he was arrested. Katy Fallon looks at how the criminalisation of asylum is changing Europe. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Romania, a country which has stubbornly been the lowest in the European Union for its recycling rates for more than a decade, has turned its reputation around with a winning deposit return scheme said to be used by 90% of its population The residents of the village of Pianu De Jos collect and return bags of bottles, cans and glass every week, in exchange for a few Romanian leus and to better enjoy a stroll in the countryside with rivers free of such rubbish. One villager, Dana Chitucescu makes 40 leu (about £6.87), enough to feed her seven cats every week, for returning used empty vessels to a collection point near her home. It is a “zero to hero story” said Gemma Webb, the chief executive of RetuRO, the company running the system. About 7.5bn beverage containers have been returned between the system’s launch in November 2023 and the end of September 2025, she said. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
