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Tuesday briefing: After an historic shift in power, where might Plaid Cymru go next?

Good morning. While Westminster-watchers were obsessed with Labour’s leadership shenanigans, a new chapter in the relationship between Cardiff and the UK government opened. After claiming power in this month’s elections, Plaid Cymru has wasted no time in testing Keir Starmer’s “openness” to reform. In London, the party tabled an amendment to the king’s speech, calling for a number of justice, infrastructure and welfare powers to be devolved to the Senedd. First minister Rhun ap Iorwerth and his nationalist party narrowly failed to secure an absolute majority in the newly expanded Cardiff chamber, with Reform UK running into second place. Labour’s miserable result saw them ousted from government with a vote share of about 11% in a country where they have been the dominant party for a century. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Bethan McKernan, the Guardian’s Wales correspondent, about how this historic shift of power came about, what it tells us about Welsh Labour, and how, going forward, Plaid are likely to settle into government and its relationship to London. First, the headlines. Five big stories UK news | A rescue deal for Thames Water is under threat because of a potential change in prime minister, government insiders have said. UK politics | Andy Burnham drew the battle lines for the future of the Labour party on Monday as the Greater Manchester mayor promised he would “change Labour” and win back the voters the party had lost. US news | Five people, including two suspects, were killed in a shooting at the Islamic Center of San Diego, California, in what authorities said was being investigated as a hate crime. Middle East | Iran has made a new proposal for a deal to definitively end the war, officials in the region said, with Donald Trump claiming he had postponed new military strikes so talks could continue. Technology | A jury ruled in favour of Sam Altman in the culmination of a long and bitter legal battle that pitted the richest person in the world against a leader of the AI boom. In depth: ‘We are heading into uncharted waters’ On the Saturday after the 7 May election, Bethan tells me, she was in the centre of Cardiff, where Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, was giving an impromptu victory speech. “There were easily a couple of thousand people there,” she tells me. “It was this sunny day, and everybody had Welsh flags. We, the media, were asking him questions, and we had to stop just because suddenly people singing the national anthem started drowning everything out.” “Nothing like this has ever happened in Welsh politics before,” says Bethan. “It was really quite moving.” *** Why did Labour suffer such a bad defeat? Alun Davies, a long-serving Labour grandee who lost his Senedd seat, said this was a “defeat manufactured in Downing Street”, but, as Bethan explains, the seeds had been sown for some time. The party had been in power in Cardiff for 27 years, and the “incumbency problem” was starting to show. Despite channelling significant funding into the NHS, waiting lists remained high compared to the rest of the UK. There was, Bethan says, a feeling that public services in Wales had not recovered post-pandemic in the way they had in the other UK nations. Then there was the perceived indifference from London. “When Keir Starmer came in, there was talk of a ‘partnership in power’ between Cardiff and London, but that’s not what happened,” she says. From the HS2 funding controversy (in 2015, David Cameron’s government defined it as an “England and Wales” infrastructure project, despite not an inch of track being destined for Wales) to the refusal to devolve the crown estates or enact police reform, the Welsh electorate began to feel that Labour in Westminster simply wasn’t interested in them. In the past, Welsh Labour could always “blame the minister” in London for everything – austerity, Brexit, Covid. They could say their hands were tied. That line of defence is gone now. There is no one else to blame for their shortcomings, Bethan says. Her piece on Sunday after visiting Tredegar’s post-industrial valleys constituency of Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni laid bare how people there felt. *** How did Plaid Cymru capitalise on Labour’s weakness? Plaid were able to position themselves as the only authentic voice for a nation that Bethan describes as “waking up”. They also had a massive, if inadvertent, helping hand from Labour themselves. In a move Bethan calls a “massive unforced error”, Welsh Labour had pushed for the D’Hondt electoral system, believing it would help them maintain a hierarchical grip on candidate lists. The system is proportional, but not as proportional as some others, as it tend to reward larger parties, and is designed to balance proportionality with delivering stable parliaments. Labour, Bethan says, never imagined they would be one of the smaller parties disadvantaged by its lack of proportionality. “The irony is that if they’d gone for actual STV [single transferable vote], they would have done better,” Bethan says. Plaid, meanwhile, vacuumed up the protest vote and presented a progressive alternative that felt distinct from the “blandness” associated with the London leadership. Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, has positioned the election result as a permanent rearrangement of Welsh politics, saying “the growth in support for Plaid Cymru in every region of Wales shows a fundamental shift in people’s hope and aspirations for our nation. This isn’t as good as it gets for Wales. People can also see that Wales doesn’t get the fair treatment that we deserve. We now have a clear mandate to fight for these powers.” In a column on Sunday, Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett suggested that that Roberts’ party has moved from one that “catered to white native Welsh speakers” to one that, in the last decade, has embraced “a broader civic nationalism, one which includes a fight for social justice and self-determination for anyone who calls Wales home”. *** What are the prospects for the new Senedd? With the chamber expanding from 60 to 96 seats, we are entering a period of significant unpredictability. Plaid intend to run a sole minority government, but they will be operating in a very different environment. “It’s really a whole new batch of politicians,” Bethan says, pointing out that even Labour’s much-reduced representation included newcomers. The massive influx of Plaid and Reform members have no prior experience in the Senedd. While Reform will be the official opposition, the expectation among observers is one of “chaos” and potential infighting. Bethan points to the 2016 Ukip intake as a precedent: “They imploded really quickly and a few of them were left as independents – it was a flash in the pan.” The big unknown for ap Iorwerth is whether this new, populist opposition will be constructive or purely combative as he tries to push through his agenda. *** How will this be seen from London? “I don’t know if Westminster’s Labour party has realised quite how different it’s going to be with Plaid in charge now,” Bethan says. “We are heading into uncharted waters.” In the first official call between ap Iorwerth and No 10 last Thursday, Starmer confirmed he would be open to a “conversation” on future powers. On the one side, she points out, Sinn Féin, the SNP and Plaid Cymru are natural “progressive” allies with significant power bases in the devolved nations. Labour, nationally, have offered only a tepid unionism with any grand vision. And then there is the rise of Reform UK in devolved parliaments, when, as Bethan notes, “Nigel Farage is a standard-bearer for British nationalism. It’s very polarised.” Bethan expects it to be testy. “Ap Iorwerth has been very clear about holding Westminster to account and demanding things Starmer didn’t deign to give to his own Labour colleagues during his administration. If Westminster didn’t give any quarter to Eluned Morgan, why would they give it to Plaid Cymru? That just pushes Labour’s problem with the Welsh electorate further down the road toward the next general election.” What else we’ve been reading In a chilling update from the frontline of drone warfare, Harriet Barber reports on the beginnings of a dangerous new chapter in Colombia’s decades-long conflict. Yassin El-Moudden, newsletters team “My objective is to be surprised by what I’m doing,” says artist Sanya Kantarovsky in this intriguing interview about his eerie and supernatural-infused work. Martin Is the UK seeing a quiet revival of Christianity? From the presence of crosses at far-right rallies to the use of wrestling to narrate biblical stories, the latest video in Richard Sprenger’s On the Ground series is an arresting look at the changing ways in which religion manifests in politics and society. Yassin I was invited out to the Eurovision song contest final in Vienna and had an absolute blast. The UK entry? Not so much. Michael Hogan counts down the UK’s 10 biggest Eurovision flops of all time. Martin The winner of this year’s International Booker prize will be announced today. Shortlisted titles include an intergenerational novel covering 30 years since the Islamic revolution in Iran and an inventive use of prose poetry to depict life in rural Albania, as John Self previews. Yassin Sport Football | Pep Guardiola is expected to leave Manchester City this summer after 10 trophy-filled years as the manager. Football | The Champions League final will not be available to watch for free in the UK for the first time since the competition’s modern rebrand 34 years ago when Arsenal face Paris Saint-Germain in Budapest. Premier League | A first-half header from Kai Havertz gave Arsenal a 1-0 win over Burnley and three precious points in the title race. The front pages “Burnham: Labour must change to regain trust”, is the Guardian’s front page. The Times says “Burnham ‘far ahead of Starmer’ in Labour vote” and the Telegraph runs with “Starmer sabotages Burnham on Brexit”. Still on the same theme, the FT writes “Burnham tries to ease markets while vowing to reverse sell-offs”, the Daily Mail says “Slippery Burnham’s two U-turns in one day” and the Mirror leads with a quote from Starmer saying “I won’t walk away”. Elsewhere, the i Paper says “HS2 will cost more than Nasa’s Artemis moon mission”, the Express states “Britons want to keep pension triple lock”. And Metro goes with “See-hole surgery!” Today in Focus Farage’s undisclosed £5m gift The Guardian’s City editor Anna Isaac on Nigel Farage’s response to the Guardian revelation that he was given an undisclosed £5m gift from a crypto billionaire in 2024. Cartoon of the day | Pete Songi The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad She may look like a wolf, but Nya’s demeanour remains as sweet as when he got her as a puppy, says Stephen O’Callaghan, who is a safeguarding and crime prevention lead for TransPennine Express (TPE). The German shepherd was registered as a therapy pet at five and helps passengers with anxiety or low mood. As O’Callaghan says: “Nya puts a smile on people’s faces … [and] people always tell me, ‘That made my day a lot better.’” When she isn’t attending events to raise awareness of mental health support on the rail network, Nya can sometimes be found performing a few tricks and drawing applause from Mancunian schoolchildren. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Australian taxpayers to pay $11bn to extend lifespan of ageing Collins-class submarines amid Aukus delay

Taxpayers will fork out an extra $11bn to extend the lifespan of Australia’s ageing Collins-class submarines for another decade, bridging the capability gap before the scheduled arrival of the first Aukus vessels in 2032. Originally designed to have a 30-year working life, the six Adelaide-built submarines have already been operational for between 23 and 30 years. The Albanese government announced in 2024 that it would undertake so-called “life of type extension” works to keep the six Collins class boats in the water for an additional 10 years. The defence minister, Richard Marles, announced on Tuesday the first works to extend the life of the oldest submarine, HMAS Farncomb, would begin this month. The boat had been due to be retired this year, but is now expected to operate until about 2036. Replacement of diesel electric operating infrastructure onboard the Collins class vessels will only proceed if required to extend their lives, a change from previous plans designed to bridge capability gaps with the now dumped Attack-class program. If successful, extending the vessels’ operational lives into the late-2040s would bridge the gap for the arrival of secondhand US Virginia-class nuclear submarines under the Aukus agreement with Washington and London. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email The first Virginia-class is due to arrive in Australia in 2032, with another arriving every four years, before the bespoke Australian-built model starts coming online in 2042. “The program will reduce engineering risk by sustaining existing systems where appropriate while continuing to upgrade critical capabilities, including weapons and combat systems,” Marles said in a speech to the Lowy Institute. Government-owned shipbuilder ASC will be responsible for delivering the upgrades in Adelaide. The new $11bn price tag is more than the original $4bn to $6bn estimate by the former Coalition government. Of the six submarines, two are out of the water at any given time for scheduled maintenance. In November 2024, it was revealed five of the submarines were not available. The government expects on average three submarines will be in maintenance at any given time, with the other three in custody of the Royal Australian Navy, including two available for operational deployment. Labor has blamed shifting plans by successive governments for churn in the submarine program. The Rudd government first planned to extend the operational lives of the Collins class, before the Abbott government began negotiating a possible deal to buy submarines from Japan. The Turnbull government eventually selected France’s Naval Group to build new subs in 2016, a plan torn up by the Morrison government when the Aukus agreement was signed with Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak in 2021. Marles said the latest announcement would accelerate and prioritise sustainment work on the fleet’s youngest models, starting with HMAS Rankin. “These decisions reaffirm the Albanese government’s commitment to keeping the Collins class a potent and highly capable strike and deterrent capability today, and for years to come,” he said. “Extending the life of all six Collins class submarines is critical to maintaining that edge as we transition the navy from conventional to nuclear-powered submarines.” Last week’s federal budget included plans for Australia to spend an extra $53bn on defence over the next decade, including $14bn more before the end of the decade. Amid a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, Labor is spending at least $368bn on delivering Aukus. “Aukus is now properly funded and its milestones are on track,” Marles said on Tuesday. “Developing our nuclear-powered submarine capability alone represents the biggest leap in our military capability in more than a century and the largest industrial project in our nation’s history.” The shadow defence minister, James Paterson, said Marles was avoiding scrutiny over the changes to the Collins class vessels and other Australian Defence Force matters. “If Richard Marles put as much energy into persuading his expenditure review committee colleagues as he does attacking the previous government, maybe the ADF wouldn’t have to absorb as many cuts to capability as it has on his watch,” he said.

Dfat officials ‘urgently seeking’ status of 11 Australian Gaza flotilla activists detained by Israel

Eleven Australians attempting to deliver aid to Gaza as part of a global flotilla have been detained by Israeli forces in international waters off the coast of Cyprus, with the government “urgently seeking” confirmation of their welfare. On Monday local time, the Global Sumud Flotilla alleged the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) encircled 38 ships that were part of a fleet of 54 boats which left Turkey last week for the embattled strip, which remains under naval blockade by Israel. The ships, carrying 319 activists from dozens of nations, were about 250 nautical miles from the coast of Gaza when they were surrounded, organisers said. Footage showed the Israeli military approaching in speedboats and boarding the vessels in broad daylight. The Israeli foreign ministry posted to X that activists from what it called the “provocation flotilla” had been transferred to Israeli vessels, alleging “no aid” had been found on their boats, a claim disputed by the flotilla. The detained Australians are academics, doctors, students, activists and film-makers who have urged the federal government to protect them. They include Anny Mokotow, Dr Bianca Pullman-Webb, Neve O’Connor, Violet Coco, Gemma O’Toole, Sam Woripa Watson, Zack Schofield, Helen O’Sullivan, Juliet Lamont, Isla Lamont and Surya McEwan. Four of their parents and loved ones held a press conference in Melbourne on Tuesday afternoon, where O’Toole’s mother, Suzie O’Toole, said she was “terrified” for her 23-year-old’s wellbeing and O’Connor’s father, Chris O’Connor, said the federal government had “lost [its] decency” for not intervening. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email Ethan Floyd has returned to Australia but was among six Australians detained by the IDF when 22 boats were intercepted off the coast of Greece two weeks ago. He said it wasn’t a “radical act” to attempt to deliver food, water and medicine to a “starving population” in Gaza. The Australians were held on an Israeli vessel for two days before being released in Crete, and alleged they and their colleagues were subject to mistreatment. “This is now the second time Israel has illegally abducted Australian citizens in international waters, and our government has said nothing,” Floyd said. In a video distributed by flotilla supporters as the boats were being intercepted on Monday, documentary film-maker and mother, Juliet Lamont, can be heard saying “it’s all on now”. “Here we are in international waters, and our governments are completely failing us. Do everything that you can to keep us safe.” A spokesperson for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Dfat) said it was “urgently seeking” confirmation of the Australians’ welfare. “We will continue to make clear our expectation that any detainees receive humane treatment in line with international norms,” they said. “We understand people want to respond to the humanitarian situation in Gaza, but we continue to urge Australians not to join others seeking to break the Israeli naval blockade as they will be putting themselves and others at risk of injury, death, arrest or deportation.” Israel’s blockade, described by the UN as a “direct contravention of international human rights and humanitarian law”, has been in effect since 2007, restricting movement in and out of the Gaza Strip. Cypriot authorities confirmed the interceptions took place outside its territorial waters without previous notification and were condemned by Turkey as an act of piracy. Dfat remains in contact with local authorities in Israel. Last month, the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, arranged for Dfat to provide a briefing on current travel advice for the region and consular services ahead of the flotilla departures. The Greens’ deputy leader and spokesperson for international aid and global justice, Senator Mehreen Faruqi, said “it is frightening how little the Australian government cares”. “Israel is able to commit acts of piracy and kidnapping in international waters with complete impunity because countries like Australia refuse to stand up for their citizens,” she said. Lawyers Greg Barns SC and Bernadette Zaydan, who are representing some of the Australians onboard the flotilla, said Israel had demonstrated a “documented pattern of harm” against civilian humanitarian workers. “Australia is a party to all core international human rights treaties, and accordingly carries binding obligations under international law,” they said. “We urge the Australian government to provide urgent diplomatic and consular measures be taken to monitor the safety and wellbeing of Australian participants.” Italy, Indonesia and Spain have pressed the Israeli government to release the detained activists. On Monday, Spain’s foreign minister, José Manuel Albares, said he had summoned Israel’s chargé d’affaires in Madrid over what he called “a new violation of international law barely 15 days after the previous interception”. The husband of prominent activist Coco said Australia should “follow the lead of the Spanish prime minister and publicly condemn these blatant acts of piracy”. Brad Homewood said he last spoke to Coco, who was on board the Perseverance, via FaceTime on Monday evening, when the vessel issued an “orange alert” prior to the IDF boarding and detaining its eight passengers. He said the French embassy advised they would be transported to Ashdod prison in Israel, a claim not verified by Guardian Australia. Homewood described his wife as a “genuine humanitarian with a heart of gold”. Ireland’s president, Catherine Connolly, has expressed concern for her sister, Margaret, who was also part of the flotilla and reportedly detained. Wong, the Israel foreign ministry and the Israeli embassy have been approached for comment.

‘Huge milestone’ as Libyan militia commander accused of torture to appear at ICC

A former militia commander accused of overseeing murder, rape, enslavement and torture in Libyan detention centres will appear at the international criminal court on Tuesday for a hearing that campaigners say is a landmark step towards “justice, truth, reparation and deterrence” of abuses of refugees trying to reach Europe from Africa. The prosecution of Khaled Mohamed Ali El Hishri on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity is the first to reach a courtroom resulting from the ICC’s investigation into crimes in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Legal experts said the hearing, when judges will decide if there is sufficient evidence against Hishri for a trial, would be a “huge milestone”. “It is a really important development,” said Allison West, a senior legal adviser at the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights. “The is the first case in the [ICC’s] Libya investigation that has been ongoing for more than 15 years. It’s the first time we have got someone into custody.” For survivors of abuse in Libya, the court hearing will be a moment that survivors and victims “never thought would happen”, said David Yambio, who was held in Mitiga prison between 2019 and 2020 and accuses Hishri of beating him. “Now [Hishri] is in front of the court, it sends a strong message to perpetrators wherever they are that they will be brought to account and justice will be delivered, even if it takes a long time,” Yambio said. Hishri was arrested in Germany last year when, it is thought, he sought medical treatment for a family member. A senior officer in the Special Deterrence Force, a powerful armed group that ran detention sites in western Libya, the 47-year-old is accused of imposing a brutal regime at the Mitiga prison in Tripoli between February 2014 and at least mid-2020. Such sites became infamous after Gaddafi’s fall as they filled with refugees detained in Libya or intercepted by the Libyan coastguard, which has been supported by the EU and member states since 2017, as they tried to reach Europe. Amnesty International and other human rights groups have described “harrowing violations” that were “the horrifying consequences of Europe’s ongoing cooperation with Libya on migration and border control”. Human Rights Watch (HRW) said thousands of detainees were held in Mitiga in overcrowded, unhygienic cells and were systematically subjected to violent assaults. At a hearing in December, prosecutors said there were reasonable grounds to believe Hishri personally killed one detainee, while a “significant number” of people died during his time at the prison, either from torture, being left outside in winter, untreated injuries or starvation. Hishri is also accused of “personally torturing, mistreating, sexually abusing and killing detainees” and imposing “prison conditions aimed at increasing … suffering”. Detainees were variously shot, confined in small metal boxes and beaten with cables “sometimes for the entertainment and amusement of guards”, it is alleged. Defence lawyers are expected to challenge the jurisdiction of the ICC and have called for Hithri’s release. West said the case against Hithri would shine a new light on serious crimes against people in Libyan detention centres but that many alleged perpetrators remained at liberty. Eight ICC arrest warrants are still pending in connection with the violence in Libya that followed the fall of Gaddafi. “One of the most significant things about this case, other than actually Hithri being in the dock, is that there are a lot of people who aren’t,” West said. While some countries in Europe have investigated and prosecuted individuals for human smuggling and trafficking of people in Libya, these cases have not included charges of war crimes or crimes against humanity. That Germany arrested Hishri was important, campaigners said. “One state finally … cooperated, in that they actually arrested and surrendered the suspect to the court, because there’s been many instances in the past where that hasn’t happened,” said Alice Autin, a HRW researcher. One of Hishri’s alleged co-perpetrators at Mitiga prison was arrested in February last year in Italy but then released on a technicality and returned to Libya, prompting controversy in Italy and dismay at The Hague. “This case [with Hishri] is not against the most senior person of that prison but is … the first step in getting sort of to the perpetrators of that system,” Autin said. Libya’s warring factions agreed a ceasefire in 2020 but the country remains divided between the administration of the military leader Khalifa Haftar in the east and the Tripoli-based government of national accord (GNA) led by the prime minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, in the west. The case of Hishri is politically sensitive. The Special Deterrence Force is allied to the internationally recognised GNA in Tripoli and nominally under the interior ministry. The ICC, set up to be an independent international “court of last resort” for grave crimes that could not be dealt with locally, has been under immense pressure in recent years. The US has imposed sanctions on four judges for what it has called its “illegitimate actions” targeting the US and Israel, while the court’s chief prosecutor is being investigated over alleged sexual misconduct, which he denies. Yambio called for an end to European programmes that support the Libyan militias. “The EU is complicit in these crimes,” he said.

UAE restores power to Barakah nuclear plant after drone strike, says IAEA – as it happened

We’re wrapping up this live coverage for now but you can see our full report here, as well as this recap of the latest key developments. Thanks for joining us. Donald Trump said he postponed a planned military attack on Iran set for Tuesday after it sent a peace proposal to Washington and that there was now a “very good chance” of reaching a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program amid the “serious negotiations” under way. The US president said allies in the Middle East had told him they were “getting very close to making a deal” that would leave Iran without nuclear weapons. “It’s a very positive development,” he said, while warning earlier that the US Washington was ready for a “large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice” if an acceptable deal wasn’t reached. Iran remained defiant in statements issued on state media after Trump’s announcement, warning the US and its allies against making any further “strategic mistakes or miscalculations” in striking Iran and saying Iranian armed forces were “more prepared and stronger than in the past”. The US announced another 30-day extension of a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian seaborne oil to aid “energy-vulnerable” countries hit by the Iran war, reversing plans not to grant an extension. Off-site power was restored to a unit of the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates after the drone strike on Sunday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said it had been told by the UAE. Iran’s top security body has announced the formation of a new body to manage the strait of Hormuz and wants to charge ships to traverse. Israeli strikes have killed more than 3,000 people in Lebanon since the start of the Hezbollah-Israel war on 2 March, the health ministry said on Monday. Lebanese president Joseph Aoun said he would do the “impossible” in order to stop the war with Israel after a ceasefire and direct talks between the countries failed to end the fighting. Gaza’s health ministry said at least six people were killed and 40 others injured in Israeli attacks across the territory over the past day. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said its forces had struck groups linked to the US and Israel in the western Iranian province of Kurdistan, near the border with Iraq. Oil prices and stock markets worldwide swung through a shaky Monday. The price for Brent crude – the international standard – went from a high of $112 a barrel overnight to below $107 in the morning before turning back higher, and after settling at $112.10, then fell back below $109 after Trump’s announcement on holding off attacking Iran. One of Indian billionaire industrialist Gautam Adani’s companies will pay the US Treasury $275m to settle an investigation into whether it violated US sanctions against Iran, the Treasury said.

From sanctioned cars to beauty clinics, Russian rubles have flowed into China’s border towns since Ukraine war

Suited and booted in a navy twinset tracksuit and colourful high-top trainers, Wang Runguo is hustling. Darting across the gleaming floors of his cavernous car showroom, the 45-year-old from one of China’s poorest provinces is closing on yet another deal. It is all in a day’s work for the man whose salary has more than doubled in the past year thanks to a well-timed pivot: from corn to cars; from China to Russia. This time last year Wang was working for an agricultural company that grew corn and soya beans for the domestic market. Now he is a manager at Xingyun International Automobile Export, a company founded in August 2025 to cater to the booming new car export industry in Suifenhe, a small city in China’s north-east that borders Russia. “Recently, China and Russia have been moving closer together,” Wang says. “As we move closer, more and more cars are going there.” A manager at Suifenhe Hengchi International Trade, one of the city’s biggest car dealerships, puts it more bluntly: “The Russia-Ukraine war … has been a good opportunity for our business.” As Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, visits China on Tuesday, Moscow may be hoping that Beijing continues to see the benefits of a cosy relationship. And on China’s border with Russia, where the US is a distant concept but where Russians spend their money, local businesspeople say they are unconcerned by western sanctions. China rejects western sanctions and says that they do not comply with international law. Earlier this month the Chinese embassy in the UK lodged “stern representations” with London over sanctions that were applied to Chinese companies accused of supplying drones and military goods to Russia. A Chinese government spokesperson said: “Normal exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Russian enterprises should not be interfered with” by sanctions. Ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, weeks after Xi Jinping and Putin had declared a “no limits” partnership, ties between the two countries have deepened. Bilateral trade has soared to record highs, to the chagrin of western leaders who accuse Beijing of providing an economic lifeline to Moscow while it engages in a war of aggression. Beijing has bought more than €316.5bn of Russian fossil fuels since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to data collected by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, far outstripping purchases by any other country. And Chinese companies have jumped to fill the gaps in the Russian market left by the retreat of western businesses. Last year exports to Russia from Heilongjiang, the province that includes Suifenhe, increased by 22%. “The dependency is mutual, but asymmetric,” says Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. China now buys nearly 30% of Russia’s exports, while only about 3% of China’s exports flow in the opposite direction. But in certain industries, Russia plays a much bigger role in China’s economic fortunes. One such trade is cars, a sector which in China is struggling with oversupply and a lack of domestic demand. Vehicles are one of Suifenhe’s main exports. Between 2021 and 2024, Chinese brands’ share of the Russian car market increased from 7% to nearly 60%, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association. In 2024, China sold more than 1m vehicles to Russia, making it the biggest destination for Chinese vehicles, although it has since dropped to second place behind Mexico. Further volumes have come from the export of China-made, foreign-branded vehicles. Despite sanctions on Russia, tens of thousands of cars from brands such as BMW, Honda and Volkswagen continue to be sold in Russia each year, via third-party Chinese dealerships. Wang’s BMW, a used model, sold for 120,000 yuan (US$17,600). That is cheap compared with prices in Russia, says the buyer, a Russia-based businessman. And it is too expensive for Chinese consumers, Wang says. It’s win-win. As much as China has kept the Russian economy afloat, Russian rubles are also sustaining many parts of China, where the economy is heavily reliant on exports and where domestic consumers are unwilling, or unable, to part with their cash. Gao Bin, the boss of Suifenhe Hengchi International Trade, says the company pivoted towards exporting cars to Russia three years ago. The first car they shipped across the border was a black Toyota Camry. “After the war started, there was demand in Russia,” he says. Last year, he sold more than 7,000 cars to Russia, compared with only a few dozen domestically. “Domestic sales have basically come to a halt.” Suifenhe, a city of just 60,000 people in China’s economically depressed rust belt region, is a microcosm of this relationship. Cyrillic signs are everywhere and prices are advertised in rubles as commonly as in yuan. But most of the shops are boarded up. From certain hilltops you can peer into barren Russian villages (a pair of binoculars helps), although a multistorey observation tower designed to attract tourists has been left abandoned and unfinished for years . As the first place in China to allow the use of rubles as legal tender, Suifenhe has long been home to a large community of Russian businesspeople and visitors, boosted by the introduction of a visa-free regime for Russian tourists in September. It is just two hours from Vladivostok by train. And according to local businesspeople, Russians are the only ones spending. Ning Qiang, who runs a beauty salon catering exclusively to Russians, says the number of customers has increased by about 50% since the visa-free policy was introduced. By 5pm on a Tuesday, he had received three clients. “When China-Russia relations are good, life is better for ordinary people,” he says. “Locals in Suifenhe don’t buy much.” Heilongjiang got a more than 60% boost in visitors from Russia in the first six months of the visa-free policy, according to Chinese state media. Gabuev says the difficulty in procuring European visas is pushing more Russians to travel eastwards. “And they come back mostly really fascinated and willing to come back again. It’s a net positive for the Chinese,” he says. One of the Russians spending her money in China rather than Russia is Mariia Publichuk, a 36-year-old from Vladivostok living in Suifenhe with her eight-year-old daughter. Publichuk moved to Suifenhe last year so that her daughter could study Chinese. The pair spend their mornings at a local primary school surrounded by the chatter of Chinese children. Evenings are spent singing and dancing in Suifenhe’s central square, which echoes with competing soundtracks from speakers dotted across the plaza. “English is the first most useful language in the world,” Publichuk says. “And the second is Chinese.” But for anyone whose livelihood depends on yuan rather than rubles, times are tough. The manager of a local logistics hub which handles cross-border and domestic freight says it has been his worst year since he started the job six years ago. The war in the Middle East has pushed up fuel prices for his trucks, and orders are down. “Even during the pandemic … it wasn’t like this,” says Wang, who declines to give his first name. “This year, in every industry … demand in China is decreasing. It’s simply that people don’t have money in their pockets.” National statistics tell a similar story. Despite the US-China trade war which pushed US tariffs on Chinese goods as high as 145% last year, Chinese goods continue to be shipped overseas at astonishing rates. Last year China’s trade surplus reached a record $1.2tn. In the first three months of 2026, exports were up almost 15% compared with the same period last year, while domestic retail sales in March grew only 1.7% compared with 12 months earlier. The US president, Donald Trump, left Beijing last week after a two-day summit full of pageantry with promises of “fantastic trade deals”. But there has been little by way of public announcements on tariffs. On Saturday, China’s ministry of commerce said the two sides would establish a board of trade to discuss “tariff reductions” but did not provide further details. China’s long-term goal is to make the economy less reliant on exports. In March, its premier, Li Qiang, said China “must adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand”. Structural problems such as an ageing population, a depressed real estate sector and a lack of consumer confidence after the pandemic all make this transition hard to execute. Exporting goods, whose prices are kept low in part because of China’s discounted energy supplies from Russia, is a lot easier. Despite the economic slowdown, Beijing still holds the cards in the China-Russia relationship. China has options for international trade that Russia does not. Bloomberg recently reported that 90% of Russia’s sanctioned technology is imported from China. And with Trump in the White House, Xi is under less pressure than ever over his relationship with Putin. The war in Ukraine barely featured in last week’s US-China summit. Trump’s “ask to Xi Jinping to contribute to the peace effort in Ukraine is not a very serious push”, Gabuev says. “Not that Xi Jinping feels that he’s on the hook for that.” In Suifenhe, even the most ardent Russophiles see Russia as a country in decline, notwithstanding their own city’s beleaguered economy. On the outskirts of town, in a crumbling, barely populated village, a house built in the style of a Russian wooden cottage, painted in bright blue and yellow, stands out from the grey. Its inhabitant is Song Lu, a 67-year-old retired artist whose family has lived in Suifenhe for generations. An enthusiast for Russian arts and crafts, he builds models of traditional Russian wooden carriages in his spare time, and has even built a blue tubular sauna in his front garden. “Russians might find it hard to admit, but in reality, China has already become the big brother,” he says. Additional research by Lillian Yang

Trump’s shifting remarks on Taiwan are perfect for China to exploit

It has been an unsettling few days for Taiwan’s government. When Donald Trump met Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday, many feared the unpredictable US leader could upend Washington’s longstanding support for Taipei. But beyond a starkly worded statement from Xi stressing China’s claims over Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory despite never having ruled it, initial signs appeared good for Taipei. An uncharacteristically sheepish Trump skirted reporters’ questions on Taiwan after he and Xi emerged from their first talks on Thursday evening. A White House readout of the meeting made no mention of the issue. But that welcome silence began to unravel onboard Air Force One on Friday, when Trump told reporters he would soon “make a determination” on pending multibillion-dollar weapons packages to Taipei – provided as part of Washington’s commitment to help Taiwan maintain its self-defence capabilities. An interview with Fox News, aired later that day, provided further soundbites, as Trump declared he was “not looking” to “travel 9,500 miles to fight a war” in Taiwan’s defence. He then described weapons sales to Taipei as a “very good negotiating chip” for Washington with Beijing, adding that he was “not looking to have somebody go independent”. Washington has long maintained an ambiguous stance on whether it would defend Taiwan if China were to invade. Trump’s comments have stoked concern among Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP), which supports a continuation of de facto independence. On Sunday, Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, issued a statement emphasising that US arms sales were “the most important deterrent” to regional conflict. He described Taiwan’s security as a “core global interest”, saying: “Ensuring peace and stability across the Taiwan strait has always been a high consensus and common interest of Taiwan [and] the United States.” But while Taipei may be unnerved, J Michael Cole, a senior fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute, cautioned against reading too much into Trump’s comments. “We need to keep in mind that he has a tendency to say many things – sometimes contradicting himself within 24 hours – in the moment, based on what he recently heard or whom he spoke with,” Cole said. “My expectation is that, recent remarks notwithstanding, the Trump administration will hew to the US’s longstanding policy.” Cole pointed to remarks by the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, affirming Washington’s continued commitment to the status quo as a more reliable gauge, as he called for observers to “pay closer attention instead to what the US does in the coming weeks and months”. This sentiment is shared by the DPP legislator Kuan-ting Chen, who said: “Taiwan should not over-interpret any single remark made during high-level US-China interactions.” Chen added, however, that Taipei “should not ignore the risk that China could amplify and exploit” Trump’s comments. Beijing has attempted to do just that, with state-run outlets suggesting that Trump’s independence comments had “sent shock waves” through Taiwan, dealt a “severe blow” to the DPP and issued a clear warning to Taiwan’s “separatist forces”. While Beijing’s framing may veer into the hyperbolic, the US leader’s remarks have exacerbated pre-existing fractures between the DPP and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) – once combatants against the Chinese Communist party during the Chinese civil war, but who today advocate for warmer cross-strait relations. Yang Kuang-shun, a cofounder of the Taipei-based thinktank US Taiwan Watch, said any apparent sign that Washington did not fully support Taiwan’s independence was seized upon by the KMT to “push its agenda for opposing Taiwan’s independence”. In the days since the Beijing summit, the KMT has called for the DPP to abandon what it views as the ruling party’s pro-independence platform. It has also criticised the DPP’s handling of cross-strait relations, which have grown increasingly tense under Lai – whom Beijing has labelled a dangerous “separatist”. Charles I-hsin Chen, a former KMT legislator and chair of the foreign affairs and national defense committee, said the DPP had “placed a one-sided bet on its relationship with the US”, with Trump’s statements showing that Taiwan “cannot tie everything” to Washington. “This highlights the need for Taiwan to move towards an equidistant approach between the US and China – that is, to give equal weight to cross-strait relations and relations with the US – in order to secure Taiwan’s greatest interests,” he said. Chen, however, also expressed concern over Trump’s framing of weapons packages as a negotiating chip, saying that Taiwan could be reduced to a “pawn to be moved around” with “no initiative and no agency”. This concern that Taiwan may become a pawn between superpowers is one of the few points of agreement between the DPP and the KMT – though the parties disagree over the causes and solutions. DPP legislator Chen said that arms procurement cooperation between Taiwan and the US had “never required the consent of any third country”, referring to China, and that it “should remain that way”. “If arms sales to Taiwan are described as a bargaining chip, Beijing may use this to test the limits of Washington’s commitment to Taiwan,” he said. “Taiwan must make clear to the international community that it cannot be traded away.”

Ukraine war briefing: Chinese ship hit on way in to Odesa port, says Zelenskyy

Russian drones hit a Chinese ship as part of strikes on civilian vessels approaching Ukraine’s Odesa ports on the Black Sea on Monday, Ukrainian authorities said. The Ukrainian navy described the Ksl Deyang as a Chinese-owned cargo ship sailed by Chinese crew under the Marshall Islands flag. The Deyang was heading to load iron ore concentrate in Ukraine’s Pivdennyi port in the Odesa region, Reuters reported, citing a source. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said a Russian drone hit the Chinese-owned vessel. It reportedly sailed on after the attack. Ukraine’s seaports authority said another ship sailing under the Guinea-Bissau flag was hit, while the Odesa governor, Oleh Kiper, said separately that a Russian attack hit a Panama-flagged civilian vessel heading to Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port. No one was injured, the crew extinguished the resulting fire and the vessel continued on its way. Ukraine has observed attempts by Russia to export grain from occupied Crimea involving US companies, Zelenskyy said. “In particular, we have recorded attempts to organise the export of grain from the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea – and, regrettably, other forms of economic exploitation of the peninsula involving entities from the United States.” Zelenskyy said Moscow was also trying to bring investment from “democratic countries” into Russia’s Arctic oil and gas projects. Ukraine’s foreign ministry condemned tactical nuclear weapons drills in Belarus on Monday, blasting the deployment as an “unprecedented challenge” to global security. “By turning Belarus into its nuclear staging ground near Nato borders, the Kremlin is de facto legitimising the proliferation of nuclear weapons worldwide and setting a dangerous precedent for other authoritarian regimes,” the ministry said. Kyiv urged its western allies to tighten sanctions against Moscow and Minsk. Vladimir Putin has few good options in Ukraine, Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief has said, with Moscow’s armed forces unable to advance significantly on the battlefield while western sanctions are chipping away at his resources. Kaupo Rosin told Reuters that Russia was losing more men than it was recruiting and a general mobilisation would be deeply unpopular and potentially undermine stability. “All these factors together are creating a situation where some people in Russia including in the higher levels understand that they have a big problem. Hard to say what Putin thinks about it, but I think all these factors are starting to float into his decision-making … My message is let’s push forward with [sanctions]. This is not the time to hesitate, just let’s keep going.” Another European intelligence chief, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that there were growing signs of pressure on Russia, but no indication for now that was changing Moscow’s calculus in the war. “It’s very difficult for me to see that they [Russia] would get rid of their objective to get the whole Donbas area … and Russia is in no hurry, basically.” The spy chief described Russian society as resilient. “It is wishful thinking that now Russia’s leadership is in some way eroding, or Putin is somehow challenged [domestically].” Democratic senators blasted an “indefensible gift” to Putin after the Trump administration waived sanctions on Russian oil for another 30 days. “Every additional dollar the Kremlin earns from this licence helps Putin finance his illegal war against Ukraine and kill innocent Ukrainians,” said a statement from Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. British and European sanctions on Russian oil purchases remain in place. The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, claimed the waiver – allowing purchases of Russian oil already at sea as of 17 April – would “help stabilise the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches the most energy-vulnerable countries”. Analysts said the waiver may help some individual countries starved of Gulf oil by Trump’s Iran war, but would do little to drive down US gasoline prices, while the Democrats said it would also not stabilise global markets. Russian drones struck critical infrastructure of Ukraine’s energy firm Naftogaz in the Dnipropetrovsk region over Sunday night, the company said. Among the targets was a filling station, Naftogaz said, adding that the station’s premises and equipment were completely destroyed and two employees injured. Russia launched 524 drones and 22 missiles at Ukraine over Monday, the Ukrainian air force said. Air defence units shot down or neutralised 503 drones and four missiles. In Russia, drones were downed over regions such as Rostov and Belgorod in the south, the Interfax news agency said, citing the defence ministry in Moscow. Two people were killed in Belgorod, local authorities said. Explosives found on Monday near the debris of a suspected Ukrainian military drone would be disposed of by blowing them up in place, Lithuanian police said. Authorities had previously said the drone was not armed. It was found crashed in the village of Samane and was presumed to have gone off-course en route to a Russian target.