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Middle East crisis live: Iranian strikes hit Saudi and Qatar energy sites as US fighter planes mistakenly shot down

China’s foreign minister Wang Yi told his Iranian counterpart on a call Monday that Beijing supports Tehran defending itself against US-Israeli strikes, as war spread across the Middle East. Wang told Abbas Araghchi that Beijing “cherishes the traditional friendship between China and Iran, supports Iran in defending its sovereignty, security, territorial integrity, and national dignity, and supports Iran in protecting its legitimate rights and interests”, state broadcaster CCTV reported. China had “urged the US and Israel to immediately cease military operations, avoid further escalation of tensions and prevent the conflict from spreading to the entire Middle East region”, Wang said according to CCTV.

What disrupting the strait of Hormuz could mean for global cost-of-living pressures

Donald Trump’s attempt to overthrow the Iranian government by force could trigger a new wave of cost-of-living pressures that embattled governments and central banks around the world will struggle to deal with. The US-Israel attack on the Middle Eastern country at the weekend is the latest in a long series of global economic shocks. Shipping through the strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel on Iran’s southern border that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, effectively closed in the wake of the missile attacks as companies swiftly moved to restrict transport. The strait is a key shipping route. Not only does a fifth of the global seaborne oil pass through it, so does a fifth of worldwide LNG shipments and about a third of global trade in urea – the most widely used fertiliser. “Of all the possible Middle East scenarios, the current state of play is one of the worst for the global economy,” says the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s head of global economics, Joseph Capurso. He added: “We expect the situation to escalate before it de-escalates. “Iran’s leadership and military capabilities have been significantly degraded. However, what is unknown is their intent and capability to block the strait of Hormuz that would sharply push up oil and gas prices.” However, investors have so far remained relatively sanguine about other potential knock-on effects, reflecting a broad opinion that the disruptions to oil supplies will follow the script of recent years and prove short-lived. The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, jumped by as much as 13% to reach $US81.57 a barrel on Monday morning – the highest in more than a year – before easing to just shy of $US77.53 by the afternoon to be up 6.4% on last week. Asian sharemarkets also recovered from steep early losses but still traded 1.5% down, while Australian stocks finished Monday’s session marginally higher as traders jumped into goldminers and LNG exporters. Despite expectations of further bombing over the coming days, investors seemed reassured by Trump’s comments that he would be prepared to drop sanctions on Iran if the country’s new leadership proved to be “pragmatic”. Still, experts remain alive to worse case scenarios, including a complete closure of the shipping route. Analysts at UBS told clients on Monday: “While a full physical closure of Hormuz would be challenging, Iran could attempt to disrupt traffic and push shipping companies and insurers to avoid the crossing. “We could be looking at a material disruption, potentially of a greater magnitude than the recent loss of Russian supply in 2022, which sent spot prices to [over] US$120/bbl.” However, they noted that Iran’s economy is overwhelmingly dependent on petrodollars, so “as long as Iranian oil exports are still flowing, the likelihood of closure and/or strikes on regional energy infrastructure may be lower, in our view, except as a last resort”. Higher petrol prices Johnathan McMenamin, the head of economic forecasts at investment bank Barrenjoey, said rising oil prices would have the most direct impact on real economic activity. “It is generally stagflationary. It increases inflation directly through high bowser prices, but it can spill over into broader prices. At the same time, it tends to reduce growth through a reduction in the people’s ability to spend,” McMenamin said. Australian households can expect to see the consequences of the attack on Iran at the bowser. Shane Oliver, the chief economist at AMP, said his rough rule of thumb was that each US$1 rise in global oil prices adds 1 cent to a litre of petrol. So in a worst-case scenario, such as if the global oil price benchmark were to climb above US$100 a barrel over coming days, unleaded fuel could jump by 40 cents or more to $2.20-2.40 per litre in the major cities. The Reserve Bank, which is widely anticipated to hike rates for a second time this year in May, will need to both balance a further increase to inflation and be wary of “what happened post the Ukraine war” when global energy prices sent consumer prices soaring, McMenamin said. “At the same time, they will want to act slowly and cautiously to ensure they don’t do any further damage to growth.” Regional insecurity Australia is a net exporter of energy, thanks to its huge LNG and thermal coal sales, but that is a rare position across the Asia-Pacific region. Richard Yetsenga, ANZ’s chief economist, said that with the exception of Malaysia, Asian countries import more oil than they export. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong import more than 80% of the energy they consume domestically, according to Moody’s Analytics. “The reality is that this is a broader shock to the region; if higher oil prices are sustained, it is a loss of national income for these countries,” Yetsenga said. He said higher oil prices were “not too damaging” economically, but higher energy costs could reignite political pressures. “Asia has cost-of-living issues like the rest of the world because of the shift in price levels over the tail-end of the pandemic. “China is struggling with soft consumption, so an increase in energy prices won’t be particularly welcome. “So an increase in oil prices, coupled with weaker local currencies, would still mean that governments take steps to mitigate the impact on households.” That is already evident in Thailand, where the government at the weekend instituted an immediate ban on all petroleum exports and announced it would draw on a national fuel fund to protect motorists from climbing petrol prices, according to local media. “There are obviously a range of potential outcomes and we shouldn’t lose sight of the terrible human cost of another military conflict,” Yetsengas said. “But the global economy has shown itself exceedingly resilient to the numerous shocks in recent years, and there’s no reason to think this will be any different.” Chinese refiners buy almost all of the 1.6m barrels of crude oil that Iran exports every day – equivalent to about 13% of China’s total seaborne oil imports, according to TD Securities. Iran continued to load oil tankers over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported, in an early sign that the country will continue to ship crude even as other shipping grinds to a halt. China condemns US attacks With the confirmed death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, at the weekend, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi slammed the strikes, saying it was “unacceptable to openly kill the leader of a sovereign country and institute regime change”. The strikes may also damage a fragile trade truce between China and US, and complicate negotiations ahead of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing later this month. With a fifth of the global gas supply also passing through the strait of Hormuz, an extended conflict that chokes off shipping also risks unleashing a new wave of energy chaos in Europe, where energy inventories are already low, according to Citi analysts. European wholesale gas prices could triple to US$100 per megawatt hour were the strait to close entirely for three months, or operate at half capacity for six months. That would still be well short of the more than US$300/MWh peak that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But analysts warned that if an extended Middle East war were to close shipping in the region, prices “could potentially escalate non-linearly, similar to what happened in late 2021 and 2022”. “Very high TTF [European wholesale gas] prices would have inflation implications especially for Europe, as seen in 2022,” they said. Patrick Commins is Guardian Australia’s economics editor

Three US fighter jets mistakenly shot down over Kuwait

Three US fighter jets were mistakenly shot down over Kuwait early Monday in an apparent “friendly fire” incident, military officials said. All six crew members ejected safely. According to a statement from US Central Command (Centcom), Kuwait’s air defences fired on the F-15 war planes during a combat mission on the third day of conflict following Saturday’s launch of US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran. The crew members who ejected were recovered and are in “stable condition”, Centcom said. “During active combat – that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones – the US Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses,” the statement said. Kuwait has acknowledged the incident and launched an investigation, it added. According to the Centcom post on X, the incident took place at 11.03pm ET Sunday and involved three F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft. Video showed one of the jets falling out of the sky over Kuwait, while a person could be seen parachuting. The location was verified by Reuters as filmed in the Al Jahra area of Kuwait. Another clip purports to show one of the pilots, a man in a flight suit clutching what appears to be breathing equipment, in the back of a vehicle. The post said the person was “being taken care of by a group of Kuwaitis”. Iran’s state media, citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iranian armed forces claimed responsibility for hitting a US plane that crashed in Kuwait, Reuters reported. The incident highlights the chaos around the conflict that began on Saturday when Donald Trump, without seeking the approval of Congress, ordered the US military to attack Iran in an air campaign the White House dubbed Operation Epic Fury. The Turkish transport ministry said Monday it had suspended all flights from the country to Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Iran responded to the assault by indiscriminately launching missiles at a slew of countries in the Middle East, some of which have landed on civilian areas, including hotels and residential areas. It has also targeted military bases in the region used by the US and its allies, including a drone attack on RAF Akrotiri, a British airbase in Cyprus. On Sunday, Centcom confirmed three US service members were killed and five others wounded in the conflict so far. On Monday, officials raised the death toll to four. Kuwait released a statement on Monday condemning what it said were “indiscriminate and reckless attacks with missiles and drones against sovereign territories across the region”. The statement, issued before news of the loss of the US jets emerged, added: “Iran’s actions represent a dangerous escalation that violates the sovereignty of multiple states and threatens regional stability. “Targeting civilians and non-combatant states is reckless behavior that undermines stability.” In a separate incident reported Monday by Reuters, smoke was seen rising from the vicinity of the US Embassy compound in Kuwait City, with fire trucks and ambulances in the area, a witness told the news agency. According to a profile of the downed class of fighter jet posted by Barron’s, the F-15 is a twin-engine, so-called fourth-generation fighter jet built by McDonnell Douglas, introduced in the 1970s, and designed to help establish air supremacy during a military conflict. Its “E” designation refers to a dual-role fighter, a jet that can handle air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, Barron’s said. Reuters contributed to this report

EU considers response to Middle East conflict as countries prepare to evacuate citizens – Europe live

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth is now briefing the media on the US operations in Iran. Here are his key points: “We didn’t start this war, but under president Trump, we are finishing it.” “The former regime had every chance to make a peaceful and sensible deal, but Tehran was not negotiating,” “This is not Iraq. This is not endless. I was there for both. Our generation knows better, and so does this president” If you want more detail on his presser, it’s here:

Oil prices rise and stock markets dip as Iran war threatens global economy

Oil prices rose and stock markets came under pressure on Monday after intense US-Israeli strikes on Iran prompted fears of significant global economic disruption. Brent crude jumped by as much as 13% during early trading – to hit $82 a barrel, a 14-month high – as the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, one of the most important arteries for global trade, intensified concerns over oil supplies. While oil later fell back slightly from its initial highs, Brent remained up by 6% at nearly $78 a barrel. Markets fell in Europe, with London’s FTSE 100 down 1% to 10,798 points. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, and easyJet were among the worst performers, as thousands of flights were cancelled, down 5% and3%, respectively. However, the surge in the crude price pushed up shares in the oil companies BP and Shell, up about 5% and 3% respectively. Shares in the weapons manufacturer BAE Systems jumped by 4.5% as investors piled into defence stocks. Other European stock markets fell on Monday, with the German Dax index down by 1.6%, the French CAC 40 down 1.5%, the Italian FTSE MIB down 1.8% and the Spanish Ibex down 2.4%. Benchmark European gas prices rose as much as 39% on Monday. Power prices in Europe also rose on the higher gas and oil prices. The German year-ahead baseload contract rose 3.6% to €82.50 a megawatt-hour, while the equivalent French price rose by 1.2% to €51.00/MWh. QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company, said on Monday it had halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. A drone attacked the company’s energy facility in Ras Laffan, according to a statement from Qatar’s defence ministry. There were no reports of human casualties, it said. The company, which is one of the biggest producers of LNG in the world, said in a statement on social media that it “values its relationships with all of its stakeholders and will continue to communicate the latest available information”. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell by nearly 2.4% as traders in Asia responded to the weekend’s developments. It later pulled back, to trade down 1.4%. Pre-market trading also put Wall Street on course to open lower on Monday. In Sydney, the ASX 200 opened down sharply, before recovering, to finish the day flat. China’s Shenzhen Composite fell 0.7%. Gold, often deemed a safe-haven asset by investors during times of crisis, rose 2.5% to $5,408 an ounce. Military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, with Donald Trump suggesting the conflict could last for four more weeks and saying that attacks would continue until US objectives were met. As prices rallied, all eyes were on the strait of Hormuz – with about a fifth of oil supplies and seaborne gas tankers passing through it. Within hours of Saturday’s US-Israeli strikes, Tehran had reportedly warned tankers in the strait that no ship would be allowed to pass through. Two ships have been attacked in the strait, one off Oman and the other off the UAE, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the British maritime security agency. While Iran has yet to officially confirm that the vital waterway has been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage. The International Maritime Organization urged ships to avoid the strait of Hormuz. Arsenio Dominguez, its secretary general, expressed deep concern over reports that several seafarers had been wounded in attacks. “I urge all shipping companies to exercise maximum caution,” said Dominguez. “Where possible, vessels should avoid transiting the affected region until conditions improve.” Maersk, the shipping multinational, announced on Sunday it was halting passage through the strait of Hormuz and the Suez canal, another vital artery of the world economy, citing safety reasons. Some analysts suggested oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel unless flows through the strait of Hormuz were quickly restored. The Opec+ cartel of producing nations agreed on Sunday a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels a day for April, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East by tanker. Iran is one of the cartel’s largest producers, pumping 4.5% of global supplies, so any disruption to its own shipments is likely to have an impact on the wider market. “The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only are current exports through the strait halted, but Opec+ additional volumes and ultimately most of Opec’s spare capacity – typically a key lever for balancing the global oil market – are inaccessible while the waterway remains closed,” analysts at the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a note. In the UK, according to the RAC, forecourt prices have already been rising in recent weeks but could climb further because of the conflict. The RAC’s Simon Williams said: “Regardless of the current situation, petrol rose by a penny a litre in February and is likely to go up by another penny in the next week or so to an average of 134p a litre. “If oil were to climb to and stay at the $80 a barrel mark, then drivers could expect to pay an average of 136p for petrol. At $90, we’d be looking at over 140p a litre and $100 would take us nearer to 150p, but it’s all too soon to know.” Reuters and AFP contributed to this report

UK ‘took far too long’ to let US use its airbases to attack Iran, Trump says

The UK “took far too long” to allow US forces to use its airbases to attack Iran, Donald Trump has said. The US president added that he was “very disappointed” in Keir Starmer over the British government’s deal to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius as a means to preserve the status of the UK-US airbase on Diego Garcia, part of the Indian Ocean archipegalo. The Chagos deal, which Trump initially supported before changing his mind, was a “very woke thing”, the US president argued. While Starmer and his ministers did not openly oppose Saturday’s initial wave of US-Israeli attacks on Iran, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, they did not allow US forces to use Diego Garcia or any UK airbases because of doubts about the legality of the strikes. On Sunday evening, however, Starmer said this position had changed given that Iran had launched a wave of retaliatory missile and drone attacks on a range of targets in the Middle East, with one hitting a UK airbase in Cyprus. Speaking to the Daily Telegraph, Trump said Starmer was too slow to change his mind, adding: “It took far too much time. Far too much time. “That’s probably never happened between our countries before. It sounds like he was worried about the legality.” The UK should have immediately allowed Diego Garcia to be used, Trump added, because Iran was responsible for killing a “lot of people from your country”. “[There are] people without arms and legs and faces that have been blown up. Iran is 95% of those. Those horrible events were caused by Iran,” the president said, without elaborating on what he meant. The UK government bill to formalise the deal with Mauritius is paused at its final stage in parliament after Trump changed his mind. Starmer has said that the plan will not go ahead without US agreement. While Trump had previously criticised the plan, which is backed by the US state department, early in February he had described it as the “best” deal Starmer could make in the circumstances. But in a change of heart later that month, the US president said on social media that Keir Starmer was “making a big mistake” by handing sovereignty of the islands to Mauritius in exchange for continued use by the UK and US of their airbase on one of the islands, Diego Garcia. “All of a sudden [Mauritius] was claiming ownership,” Trump told the British newspaper. “He should have fought it out and owned it or [made them] take it, if you want to know the truth. But no, we were very disappointed in Keir.” He added: “It would have been much better on the legal front if he just kept the ownership of the land and not given it to people that weren’t the rightful owners.” On the strikes against Iran, Trump said the operation was “well ahead of schedule”, adding: “We always anticipated four weeks. We also anticipated two to three weeks to take out some of the leadership, but we’ve taken out all of it in one day. So that was well ahead of schedule. We always viewed it as a four-week operation.” Trump has been vague about what the goals of the military strikes are, saying that the aim is for the Iranian people to rise up, but also talking about the idea of holding talks with successors to Khamenei.

Private jet prices soar as wealthy scramble to leave Dubai

Iranian attacks on Dubai and the closure of its airport have triggered a scramble among the wealthy to leave the emirates via alternative routes on private jets. The normally glitzy city – a playground for billionaires, influencers and millions of international visitors – has been on edge since drones and missiles fired in response to US and Israel strikes on Iran damaged the airport and struck several high-profile hotels and landmarks. The UAE defence ministry said it had continued intercepting incoming missiles and drones on Monday, as the country announced the closure of its embassy in Tehran amid the widening regional war. Some in Dubai have headed for Oman, a four-and-a-half-hour drive, which has seen little disruption and where Muscat airport continues to operate, albeit with delays. The majority of commercial flights from Muscat to Europe are fully booked until later this week, according to booking sites. Alexandra Vavilova, a Russian tourist holidaying in Dubai, said she had managed to secure one of the last available tickets out on Monday night: a flight from Muscat to Colombo, Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, prices for private jets from Muscat have surged, driven by soaring demand and the difficulty of securing planes in the volatile region. JetVip, a Muscat-based private jet brokerage, told the Guardian that a flight to Istanbul on a Nextant – one of the smallest jets available – now cost about €85,000 (£74,000), roughly three times the usual rate. Seats on private charters to Moscow are going for about €20,000 per person. Several private jet companies said they were currently unable to deploy aircraft because of the difficulty of positioning fleets in the Middle East. A representative at the Austria-based AlbaJet charter firm said its “availability was extremely thin”, offering flights to Europe for about €90,000. “Many aircraft operators won’t perform the flight due to insurance requirements and owner’s decision. So a lot of demand, very little supply.” Others looking to leave the UAE have opted for the 10-hour drive to Riyadh, whose airport remains operational. Semafor reported that private security companies had been booking fleets of SUVs to ferry clients to the Saudi capital before arranging onward private flights. Ameerh Naran, the chief executive of the private jet brokerage Vimana Private Jets, told the outlet that flights from Riyadh to Europe were now costing up to $350,000. The disruption has triggered a political storm in Italy after the defence minister, Guido Crosetto, flew home on Monday on an Italian government aircraft, drawing criticism as hundreds of other Italians remained stranded in Dubai. Crosetto had reportedly been in Dubai on holiday with his family when the US-Israel war on Iran began. The episode has raised broader questions in Rome about whether the government had been properly briefed on the looming conflict, prompting opposition parties to call for his resignation. In an apparent effort to limit further backlash, he returned to Italy alone, leaving his family in Dubai. He has said he paid for the flight himself. Reached by the Guardian, Crosetto said: “I am in my office dealing with far more serious matters, and I do not think that having been stranded, like thousands of other people, is an important issue.” For most tourists, however, the only option is to hunker down in Dubai. Dubai’s tourist board has instructed local hotels not to evict tourists who are unable to leave the country because of mass flight cancellations, and to extend their stays on the same terms as their original bookings. Some Russian tourists, however, complained online that they were being told to “pay up” or leave their resorts. “The receptionist at our hotel told us to contact our booking agency, that it’s not their problem. It’s an awful attitude towards people stranded in a foreign country,” one Russian woman said in a clip circulating on Telegram. Thousands of western tourists have also found themselves stranded at sea, confined to cruise ships off the Gulf coast as ports across the region grapple with the fallout from Iranian drone attacks. At least six major cruise ships, each carrying thousands of passengers, are anchored in or close to harbours across the region, their passengers confined to the ships, and in some cases told to stay in their cabins and not go on to their balconies. Tourists on the cruise liner Mein Schiff 4 photographed black clouds of smoke billowing over the harbour of Zayed Port in Abu Dhabi on Sunday after large explosions there caused by Iranian drones. They told the tabloid Bild they were shocked and scared to see how their holiday paradise had turned into a war zone. Passengers on the MSC Euribia, stranded in Dubai, said their room keys had been reissued and were now valid until 6 March, amid expectations that holidaymakers would not be able to leave the ship any time soon. Confusion mounted on Monday over operations at Abu Dhabi’s Zayed international airport, with conflicting reports about departures, cancellations and when flights might resume. Flightradar24, a global flight tracker, said at least one passenger plane had departed in the afternoon from Abu Dhabi to London. Irina Heaver, a Dubai-based crypto lawyer, wrote on X that friends in the city had split into three camps. There were those heading for the Omani border, hoping to secure a private jet and make it to “Istanbul by breakfast”. Others insisted life would continue as normal – “swimming at the beach, sunset walks on the Palm, vitamin D maxing”. A third group, she wrote, were the “Shelter-in-Place Official Guidance Followers”.

Thousands of flights cancelled as world faces worst travel chaos since Covid pandemic

Thousands more flights were cancelled on Monday as the turmoil in global air travel caused by the US-Israel war on Iran continued, with hundreds of thousands of passengers already stranded. Gulf airports and airlines have suspended all operations until at least 10.00 GMT on Tuesday. Airline and travel share prices fell sharply after days of disruption, with Donald Trump indicating that the US military action could last another four weeks. Some carriers and travel firms are offering refunds or free changes to those due to travel in the coming weeks. Major Middle Eastern airports, including Dubai – the world’s busiest international hub – closed for a third consecutive day amid the most acute aviation shock since the Covid pandemic paralysed the industry. Flights across the Middle East have been cancelled, disrupting thousands of services so far, as international carriers continued to suspend their services. By 10am, according to the analysts Cirium, at least 1,555 flights to the Middle East had been cancelled, although it warned that the figures were artificially low owing to limited data coming from Iran and the United Arab Emirates, where hundreds more flights were scheduled on Monday. Cancellations most affected the Gulf carriers, all three of which now connect passengers worldwide via their hubs. Emirates, based in Dubai, and Etihad Airways, in Abu Dhabi, said flights to and from their hubs would not operate until late Tuesday morning, while Qatar Airways has suspended operations as long as Qatari airspace remains closed. Almost 2,800 flights were cancelled on Saturday, and 3,156 cancelled on Sunday, according to the tracking platform FlightAware. Some flights to Cyprus have also been affected, with easyJet cancelling three return services between Paphos and Larnaca and the UK on Monday after a drone hit the RAF base in Akrotiri. British Airways said it had cancelled Monday’s Larnaca service. Airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar was still virtually empty as of Monday, according to the flight tracking website Flightradar24. The impact has spread far beyond the Middle East, with passengers stranded from Bali to Frankfurt. Air India cancelled flights on Sunday departing from Delhi, Mumbai and Amritsar for big cities in Europe and North America. As the conflict spread to Lebanon – with Israel carrying out airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut after Iran-aligned Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel – much of the region’s airspace remained closed. Crew and pilots are now scattered across the world, complicating the process of resuming flights whenever airspace reopens. As many passengers struggled to find information on the status of planned journeys, gathering at some of the world’s busiest commercial airports amid widespread delays and cancellations, the uber-wealthy found an alternative route out of the Middle East. “Saudi Arabia is the only real option for people who want to get out of the region right now,” Ameerh Naran, the chief executive of the private jet brokerage Vimana Private, told Semafor, putting the cost of private jets from Riyadh to Europe at up to $350,000 (£260,000). The region and its airlines have become used to travel disruption over the past few years, but such a prolonged closure of the skies – more than 24 hours – and the shutdown of all three big Gulf transit hubs is unprecedented, analysts said. Shares in Tui, Europe’s largest travel company, dropped 7% in early trade, while the British Airways owner IAG was down 9%. Tui said it would be contacting all customers due to travel to the Middle East in the coming week, while still making arrangements to bring people back from Dubai and Qatar. BA has told passengers due to fly out from London to the Gulf, Israel or Jordan until 15 March that they can delay travel free of charge. It has cancelled all flights to the Gulf until the end of Tuesday. Up to 25,000 passengers could have flown on 74 flights to the Middle East today, according to Cirium. Some flights to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have also been cancelled but Egypt flights are so far unaffected. Shares in airlines including Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Qantas and Singapore also all fell between 5% and 7%. Hotelier Accor and the cruise company Carnival also fell sharply. US airline shares dropped about 5% in pre-market trading as investors contemplated the impact of the Iran war on the aviation industry. Carriers around the world face higher oil prices after Brent crude jumped by as much as 13% to hit $80 a barrel, with analysts predicting they could climb as high as $100. “For everyone the main impact will come through oil prices, which will obviously take a bump upwards,” said the aviation adviser Bertrand Grabowski. Some flights that have run have been rerouted to avoid closed or restricted airspace. Iranian and Iraqi overflight routes had grown more important since the Russia-Ukraine war forced airlines to avoid both countries’ airspace. Middle East airspace closures are now squeezing airlines into narrower corridors, with fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan adding a further risk, noted Ian Petchenik, the communications director at Flightradar24. “The risk of protracted disruption is the main concern from a commercial aviation perspective,” he said. The Gulf is also a leading intersection for air cargo, putting further pressure on trade lanes on top of disruption at sea. AP and Reuters contributed to this report