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Jimmy Lai, Hong Kong pro-democracy figure, sentenced to 20 years in prison for national security offences

Jimmy Lai, the media mogul and prominent pro-democracy activist, has been sentenced to 20 years in prison in Hong Kong for national security offences, a punishment his daughter said could mean “he will die a martyr behind bars”. Claire Lai said the sentence was “heartbreakingly cruel” given her 78-year-old father’s declining health, while her brother Sebastien Lai called the sentence “draconian” and “devastating”. The sentencing is the culmination of a years-long saga that critics say represents Hong Kong’s transformation from a mostly free city to one where dissent is fiercely suppressed by the Chinese Communist party-controlled authorities. Lai was convicted in December on charges of sedition and conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. He had pleaded not guilty to all charges. The collusion convictions carry a maximum penalty of life imprisonment. Lai’s 20-year sentence is the harshest penalty handed down for national security offences in Hong Kong. The sentence was condemned immediately by Taiwan, as well as press freedom and human rights groups. Reporters Without Borders said: “Today, the curtain falls on press freedom in Hong Kong … This court decision underscores the complete collapse of press freedom in Hong Kong and the authorities’ profound contempt for independent journalism.” Human Rights Watch said the length of jail time given to Lai was “effectively a death sentence”. “A sentence of this magnitude is both cruel and profoundly unjust. Lai’s years of persecution show the Chinese government’s determination to crush independent journalism and silence anyone who dares to criticise the Communist party,” the statement said. Amnesty International called the case “another grim milestone in Hong Kong’s transformation from a city governed by the rule of law to one ruled by fear”. Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee, said on Monday the sentencing of Lai was “deeply gratifying”. “Jimmy Lai’s crimes are heinous and evil in the extreme. His heavy sentence of 20 years’ imprisonment demonstrates the rule of law, upholds justice and is deeply gratifying,” he said. Steve Li, the chief superintendent of the police national security department, said the sentence was “appropriate” and alleged that claims about Lai’s frail health were “exaggerated”. Beijing’s foreign affairs spokesperson Lin Jian said the sentence was “legitimate” and “reasonable”. Li said: “Hong Kong is a society governed by the rule of law … there is no room for argument.” Lai’s prosecution has been described as politically motivated by human rights groups and the British government, which has called for his release. The UK foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, said: “For the 78-year-old, this is tantamount to a life sentence”. Cooper called for Lai to be released from his “appalling ordeal” on humanitarian grounds. “The prime minister raised Mr Lai’s case directly with President Xi during his visit. That has opened up discussion of our most acute concerns directly with the Chinese government, at the highest levels,” said Cooper. “Following today’s sentencing we will rapidly engage further on Mr Lai’s case.” On Friday, Chinese state media described Lai, a British citizen who has lived in Hong Kong since he fled China as a child refugee, as an “anti-government instigator and traitor”. Lai is the founder of the now-defunct Apple Daily, a popular Hong Kong newspaper that supported the pro-democracy movement that swelled in the city in the 2010s. The movement was crushed in June 2020 by the imposition of a harsh national security law that criminalised most forms of dissent. The authorities said the law was necessary to restore stability to the city. Lai was arrested and charged under that law in August that year. Apple Daily was forced to close in 2021. Keir Starmer said that he raised Lai’s case when he met China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing in January. But it is not clear what, if any, progress the UK has made towards securing Lai’s release. Lai’s son, Sebastien Lai, said recently that the UK government had not done enough for his father and that “time is running out”. The US president, Donald Trump, has also said that he would secure Lai’s release. The chair of the US select committee on China, John Moolenaar, said: “President Trump made it abundantly clear to General Secretary Xi in October that Lai should be freed and allowed to leave Hong Kong to be with his family … If General Secretary Xi wants to improve his relationship with the United States, freeing Jimmy Lai is where he needs to start.” Lai’s supporters hope that negotiations can now start in earnest for him to be released on health grounds. There are increasing concerns about Lai’s health and wellbeing in prison. His family said he had suffered dramatic weight loss and that his teeth had rotted. He has been behind bars since December 2020, mostly in solitary confinement. Hong Kong authorities say Lai has received appropriate medical care and that he requested to be kept separate from other prisoners. Lai was sentenced along with eight other co-defendants – two activists and six former executives from Lai’s media company – in the landmark national security trial, all of whom pleaded guilty. They were handed sentences ranging from six years and three months to 10 years. Mark Clifford, the president of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong and author of a biography of Lai titled The Troublemaker, said: “The heavy sentences meted out not only to Lai but to his six Apple Daily colleagues underscore China’s lack of concern about Hong Kong’s rule of law... The British government needs to redouble its efforts to free Lai on humanitarian grounds.” Clifford is a former executive in Lai’s media company and was referenced several times in the ruling against Lai. Lai’s trial was presided over by three judges handpicked by the government to hear national security cases. In their 855-page judgment convicting him, the judges said Lai was “a very savvy business man” and that it was “unfortunate that his deep resentment and hatred for the Chinese Communist party … led him down a thorny path”. Lai was accused of using Apple Daily and political connections, particularly in the US, to lobby for foreign governments to impose sanctions on China and Hong Kong after the crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2019 and 2020. Lai said he never called for sanctions after the national security law had taken effect, as “it would be suicidal to do so”. Additional reporting by Geneva Abdul

Portugal elects socialist as president but far-right rival takes record vote share

The moderate socialist António José Seguro won a resounding victory in the second round of Portugal’s presidential election on Sunday, triumphing over his far-right opponent, André Ventura, whose Chega party still managed to take a record share of the vote. Seguro won 66.8% of votes to Ventura’s 33.2% in the election, which went ahead despite weeks of disruption caused by deadly storms. The vote to elect a successor to the outgoing president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, was marked by a cross-party push to head off the prospect of a Chega victory, with some senior rightwing figures throwing their weight behind the centre-left candidate to keep Ventura from entering the presidential palace. “The response the Portuguese people gave today, their commitment to freedom, democracy, and the future of our country, leaves me naturally moved and proud of our nation,” said Seguro. Ventura, a former football pundit, columnist, seminarian and novelist who founded Chega seven years ago, said the result showed that “the message from the Portuguese people is clear”, adding that Chega was now the main party on the right and would “soon be governing Portugal”. Earlier on Sunday, he had accused “the entire political system” of uniting against him. The far-right, anti-establishment party had once again sought to make immigration a key issue in the campaign, setting up billboards across the country that read “This isn’t Bangladesh” and “Immigrants shouldn’t be allowed to live on welfare”. Chega’s result far exceeds the 22.8% it won at last May’s general election – and the 31.2% that the governing, centre-right Democratic Alliance took to win that election and propel Luís Montenegro to office as prime minister. European leaders were quick to offer Seguro their congratulations. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, said he looked forward to working with his new Portuguese counterpart to serve “a Europe that decides for itself, and is more competitive, more sovereign, and stronger!”. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said the fact that Portuguese citizens had exercised their right to vote “in the face of the devastation caused by the storms, demonstrated remarkable democratic resilience”. She added: “Portugal’s voice in defending our shared European values remains strong.” The campaign for the second round of the election was overshadowed by two major storms that prompted the declaration of a state of calamity that has been extended to 15 February. Ventura had called for the vote to be delayed by a week, calling it “a matter of equality among all Portuguese”. But the national electoral authority said the vote would go ahead as scheduled, saying: “A state of calamity, weather alerts or overall unfavourable situations are not in themselves a sufficient reason to postpone voting in a town or region.” Nevertheless, the aftermath of Storm Leonardo led about 20 badly hit constituencies to postpone the vote by a week. The postponement affected about 37,000 registered voters – or about 0.3% of the total – and is unlikely to influence the overall result. Portugal’s presidency is a largely ceremonial role but holds some important powers, including the ability to dissolve parliament under certain circumstances. Ventura had said he would be a more “interventionist” president, advocating increased powers for the head of state. Seguro had positioned himself as a moderate candidate who would cooperate with Montenegro’s centre-right minority government, repudiating Ventura’s populist, anti-immigrant tirades. The far right also put up a strong showing over the border in Spain, where Vox doubled its seat count to finish third in an election held in the north-eastern region of Aragón. The incumbent, conservative People’s party (PP), which won the election despite losing two seats, will again need Vox’s support to govern the region. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ party of the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, finished second and lost five seats. Sánchez, whose inner circle and party have been battered by a succession of corruption allegations, congratulated the PP candidate, Jorge Azcón, but insisted the socialists remained “the only progressive alternative”. The PP’s leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, said the result was proof of the prime minister’s waning support. “How many more collapses does Sánchez need before he understands that enough’s enough?” he said. Santiago Abascal, the leader of Vox, said his party was prepared to work with the PP but only if it adopted a tougher line on immigration. Disagreements over the issue led Vox to abandon its coalitions with the PP in five regions in 2024. “If the PP wants to change its policies, it can count on us,” said Abascal. “But if the PP wants to continue with the policies that led us to quit the regional governments, then it best look towards the socialist party.” Associated Press contributed to this report

UK expands Hong Kong visa scheme in wake of Jimmy Lai’s prison sentence

Ministers have opened up visas to thousands more people from Hong Kong in the wake of the 20-year prison sentence handed down to the pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai. Adult children of British national (overseas) status holders who were under 18 at the time of Hong Kong’s 1997 handover to China will be eligible to apply for the route independently of their parents, a Home Office spokesperson told the Guardian on Monday. Their partners and children will also be able to move to the UK under the expanded route, the Home Office said. The Home Office estimates that 26,000 people will arrive in the UK because of Monday’s changes over the next five years. The expansion comes hours after the British-Hong Kong media mogul Lai, 78, was given a “heartbreakingly cruel” punishment. His family say his health is declining rapidly and he will die in jail. Dozens of MPs have called on the government to ensure changes to permanent residency requirements do not withdraw support for Hongkongers and others on humanitarian visas. In 2020, following the imposition of Beijing’s national security law in Hong Kong, the UK government announced a new visa scheme that would allow BNO passport holders there to come to Britain and gain settled status after five years, plus citizenship a year later. Since the BNO route for people from Hong Kong was launched, more than 230,000 people have been granted a visa and almost 170,000 have moved to the UK. The route’s expansion closes a gap in eligibility that has led to unfair outcomes within families, with some children able to resettle and others not. Keir Starmer raised Lai’s case directly with President Xi Jinping during a recent visit to Beijing. Now that the sentencing has happened, the government has said it will “rapidly engage” further on Lai’s case. In December, 34 Labour MPs said they had “significant concerns about the potential adverse consequences” of changes announced in November to indefinite leave to remain (ILR), which allows migrants to live, work and study permanently in the UK, then acquire British citizenship. They wrote to the migration minister, Mike Tapp, to ask him to ensure new requirements were not applied retroactively to about 200,000 Hongkongers who were granted BNO visas from 2021 by the previous Conservative government after fleeing a crackdown by Beijing. Of particular concern is the newly announced requirement for “upper intermediate” (B2) level of English, increased from “intermediate” (B1), and the necessity to have earned more than £12,570 a year for a minimum of three to five years before being able to apply for ILR. The government has clarified that Hongkongers will be able to apply for settled status after five years, unlike other migrants who will have the period extended to 10 years. The government said it was consulting on the salary thresholds and language requirements. Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, said: “This country will always honour its historic commitment to the people of Hong Kong. We are proud to have already provided a safe haven to almost 170,000 Hongkongers since 2021. In the face of the continued deterioration of rights and freedoms, we are now expanding eligibility so more families can build new lives here. While we must restore order and control to our borders, the British people will always welcome those in genuine need of sanctuary.” Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, said: “Though Hong Kong’s rights and freedoms continue to erode, this government’s support for its people remains steadfast, and that’s why we are ensuring that young people who missed out on resettlement protection because of their age will now be covered.”

Japanese shares hit record high as Sanae Takaichi wins landslide election victory

Japan’s stock market has hit a record high after Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic party (LDP) secured a comprehensive victory in Sunday’s election. The LDP won 316 of the 465 seats in the country’s lower house – the first time a single party has secured two-thirds of the lower house since the establishment of Japan’s parliament in 1947. The Japan Innovation party, the LDP’s coalition partner, won 36 further seats, giving a supermajority of 352 seats. The landslide victory eases the legislative agenda for Takaichi – who is Japan’s first female prime minister and called a snap election in January – as she can override the upper chamber, which she does not control. Japanese stocks rose, bonds fell and the battered yen recovered some ground on Monday after the LDP’s win was seen as enabling decisive action on fiscal stimulus. Japan’s Nikkei share average rose to a record high on Monday, after the election results, surpassing the 56,000 level for the first time at the start of trading. It quickly pushed through the 57,000-point mark, before closing up 3.9% at 56,363 points. In other Asian markets, South Korea’s Kospi rose 4.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.8%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 1.9% higher. On the currency markets, the yen initially fell 0.3% against the dollar – its weakest level in two weeks – before strengthening as much as 0.7%. It was last trading 0.5% firmer at 156.43 yen against the dollar. Takaichi hopes to push through a 21tn yen (£99bn) stimulus package, and has promised to suspend Japan’s 8% sales tax on food for two years. Investors have balked at the lack of clarity over how Japan, which has the highest debt burden in the developed world, would fund the proposal. The uncertainty has triggered a sell-off in government bonds and pushed the yen towards historic lows against other currencies. Some analysts had suggested that Takaichi’s strong mandate might give her leeway to retreat from the plan, with opposition parties advocating even bolder tax cuts suffering heavy defeats at the ballot box. But the premier pushed back against that view in a series of brief television interviews as results rolled in on Sunday, saying she would move with speed to realise the LDP’s promise to suspend the levy. “While the initial yen weakness may not have played out, the outlook for the yen is still one which is likely to struggle to strengthen,” said Sim Moh Siong, a currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. “At least in the near term, there’s also concern about intervention risk, which may be capping the upside for dollar-yen.” Japan is concerned about the rapid moves in foreign exchange markets and is closely monitoring them with a high sense of urgency, a top government spokesperson, Minoru Kihara, told a press conference on Monday. The challenge for Takaichi is finding revenue to offset the tax suspension, which would cost about 5tn yen a year – roughly equivalent to Japan’s annual education budget. She has ruled out issuing fresh debt but has remained vague on alternative funding sources, saying details would be worked out through cross‑party debates on social welfare and taxation. Reuters contributed to this report

Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy says Russian energy sites are legitimate targets

Russian energy infrastructure is a legitimate target for Ukrainian strikes because the energy sector is a source of funds for the production of weapons, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. “We do not have to choose – whether we strike a military target or energy … it’s the same thing,” the Ukrainian president said on X on Sunday. “We either build weapons and strike their weapons. Or we strike the source where their money is generated and multiplied. And that source is their energy sector … All of this is a legitimate target for us.” Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy grid in a campaign of attacks that has been called Moscow’s weaponisation of winter. Russian strikes on Odesa and Kharkiv overnight killed at least three people, Ukrainian officials said on Monday. Iranian-made drones pummelled the southern port city of Odesa, igniting fires and damaging apartment buildings and a gas pipeline, said Sergiy Lysak, head of the city’s military administration. “A 35-year-old man died as a result of the nighttime attack,” he posted in an update. Regional governor Oleg Kiper said the city was “massively attacked”. Farther north in the Kharkiv region, a mother and her 10-year-old son were killed in a drone attack on a residential area of the town of Bohodukhiv, the regional prosecutor’s office said. Six people were hurt. Authorities in Dubai have arrested and handed over to Russia a man suspected of shooting and wounding a senior officer in Russia’s intelligence services, according to Moscow’s security service. Rory Carroll and Pjotr Sauer report that Sunday’s announcement came two days after a gunman shot Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev on the stairwell of his Moscow apartment, leaving him in a critical condition. The federal security service (FSB) said a Russian citizen was detained in Dubai on suspicion of carrying out the shooting. Television images showed masked FSB officers escorting a blindfolded man from a jet in Russia in the dark. The FSB said it had also identified two “accomplices”, one of whom was detained in Moscow and another who “left for Ukraine”. Zelenskyy said the US had given Ukraine and Russia yet another deadline to reach a peace settlement and was now proposing the war should end by June, reports Donna Ferguson. The Ukrainian president also hinted that the new deadline could be linked to Trump’s US midterm elections campaign. Zelenskyy told reporters that both Ukraine and Russia had been invited to further talks this week. A Russian airstrike on a residential area in eastern Ukraine killed one person and wounded two, officials said on Sunday. The attack on the city of Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region caused a fire in a nine-story apartment block, according to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service. Russia also struck energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Poltava region overnight into Sunday, Ukraine’s state-owned gas company Naftogaz said. Kyiv’s foreign minister said the Ukrainian and Russian leaders needed to meet in person to hash out the hardest remaining issues in peace talks, and that only the US president had the power to bring about an agreement. “Only Trump can stop the war,” Andrii Sybiha told Reuters. From the 20-point peace plan that has formed the basis of recent trilateral negotiations, only “a few” items remained outstanding, Sybiha said. “The most sensitive and most difficult, to be dealt with at the leaders’ level.” Zelenskyy said he was imposing sanctions on some foreign manufacturers of components for Russian drones and missiles which it uses against Ukraine. “Producing this weaponry would be impossible without critical foreign components, which the Russians continue to obtain by circumventing sanctions,” he said on X.

Monday briefing: The Welsh were Labour’s most loyal voters, but even their support is in doubt

Good morning. Yesterday afternoon the resignation of Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, added to the sense of instability surrounding Labour’s Downing Street operation, after days of damaging revelations about Peter Mandelson and renewed questions about the prime minister’s leadership. Starmer’s personal ratings look set to fall further – and beyond the turmoil at No 10, Labour is also facing the prospect of severe losses in May’s elections for the Senedd in Wales and the parliament in Scotland. In both contests, the unpopularity of the Westminster government is exacerbating longer-term trends of Labour’s declining support. We will return to McSweeney and Starmer later this week, and will be previewing the Holyrood elections with Libby Brooks soon. But for today’s newsletter I spoke to Bethan McKernan, our Wales correspondent, to explore what has led to this moment there, the prospects for for each of the major parties, and what the implications might be for the UK. First, the headlines. Five big stories UK politics | Keir Starmer is fighting to reassert control over his party after accepting the resignation of his closest adviser, Morgan McSweeney, amid anger over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Jeffrey Epstein | Noam Chomsky and his wife, Valeria, made a “grave mistake” and were “careless” not to thoroughly research the background of Jeffrey Epstein, Valeria Chomsky said in a lengthy statement, adding also that Epstein had deceived them. Jimmy Lai | Jimmy Lai, the media mogul and prominent pro-democracy activist, has been sentenced to 20 years in prison in Hong Kong for national security offences, a punishment his daughter said could mean “he will die a martyr behind bars.” US politics | Democrats will stop Donald Trump from trying to steal this year’s midterm elections, Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the US House of Representatives said. Olympics | Andy Burnham is among local leaders backing a plan for a multi-city 2040 Olympics bid from the north of England. In depth: Misunderstanding and underestimating Wales Later this year, the Welsh people will go to the polls for a Senedd election like no other before it – not just because it will be held under a new voting system, with Wales divided into 16 constituencies, and six MSs elected in each via proportional representation, but because polling suggests the result could bring about a seismic change in Welsh politics. The Welsh have been Labour’s most loyal voters for more than a century, returning the party to government in Cardiff at every election since devolution in 1999. Yet poll after poll now suggests Labour’s base has collapsed to the extent that the party could come third – or even fourth – in May. Bethan says that should not come as a surprise to the party, which has been accused of mismanagement in the Welsh government and of “misunderstanding and underestimating” Wales in Westminster. After what she describes as “absolutely bombshell” recent polling, giving them as much as a 14 point lead, Plaid Cymru are “in touching distance of an absolute majority – something supposedly impossible under the proportional representation principles of the system – the Greens could be going from zero to 11 seats, with Labour down to eight, and first minister Eluned Morgan [pictured below] potentially losing her seat”. *** A reckoning for Labour Labour’s collapse in Wales has been apparent for some time, but the arrival of Keir Starmer and his unpopular government in Westminster appears to have hastened it. “The Vaughan Gething leadership crisis and the failure of the government to intervene over Tata Steel in Port Talbot had already weakened Labour,” Bethan tells me. “Starmer coming in was the nail in the coffin.” There is deep public anger, she says, about public services in Wales, which have been Labour-run for decades and are now “in a worse state than in England” – something she believes is not widely understood across the UK. There is also a sense that Welsh taxpayers are being asked to fund an expanded Senedd at the behest of Labour, while feeling poorer and seeing services deteriorate. Many people feel, she says, “that they already can’t do their job – so why are we spending more money on this?” There are good reasons for expansion – currently each MS has too big a caseload, and is sitting on too many committees, while Cardiff council has more members than the Senedd and isn’t dealing with a national budget – but these reasons are not cutting through with the electorate. Labour can’t simply blame 14 years of Tory mismanagement in London, says Bethan. It is now in power in Westminster and in Cardiff, and voters feel that things have “continued to go downhill in Wales”. *** A conservative realignment The Conservatives have never really had deep roots in Wales, historically or culturally. While they have governed at Westminster, they have always struggled to build a durable base with Welsh voters – and recent polling suggests they now face the possibility of being wiped out entirely in the Senedd. That collapse, Bethan stresses, should not be misread as a reason for the sudden surge in support for Reform UK. Rather, she sees it as a realignment of the small-‘c’ conservative vote, with voters who once defaulted to the Tories now moving to Nigel Farage’s party because it is the only viable option left to them. Particularly interesting, then, is Reform’s decision to announce its new, freshly parachuted-in leader for Wales last week: former Barnet Tory council leader Dan Thomas. At a rally in Newport on Thursday, he described Reform’s “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to smash Labour’s failing grip in Wales.” Thomas defected to Reform last year and has now returned to his home town of Blackwood, with Farage framing the move as bringing experience and credibility to their campaign. He described Thomas as “battle hardened” and said there are plans to give him “full autonomy” over Welsh policy. Policy substance, meanwhile, is still in short supply. Reform has reiterated pledges to scrap the Welsh government’s 20mph speed limit in urban areas, and promised to revive coal mining and steelmaking in Port Talbot. Those latter proposals have been described by critics as technically impossible. The appointment of Thomas is an attempt to draw a line for the party, whose previous Welsh leader was jailed for 10 and a half years in November for taking bribes to make statements in favour of Russia while he was an MEP. Reform’s polling has dipped from a peak of 29% in autumn last year to 23% now. *** A new centre of gravity? While the question over whether Reform will hoover up former Tory votes remains, Plaid Cymru is certainly starting to look more like a government in waiting. The party’s historic win in a Caerphilly Sennedd byelection last year is certainly a hopeful, if not necessarily indicative, first sign. Their manifesto commitments – including an eye-catching offer of free universal childcare – are serious, and Bethan says the party has spent years preparing themselves for the possibility of power rather than simply campaigning in opposition. Rhun ap Iorwerth, pictured above, looks increasingly likely to be first minister in Wales. “They aren’t going to want to waste this opportunity,” she says. “The question Plaid Cymru always get is whether they are ready for this – can they actually run a government? As far as I can tell, they are pretty well prepared.” The fortunes of the Green party are also looking good. The party is polling ahead of both Labour and Conservatives at the moment, after a surge in popularity in recent months. Bethan says the party has repeatedly revised its expectations upwards as polling improved, and that proportional representation means “there is no ceiling” on their potential support. “People don’t feel like they have to vote tactically any more,” she says. *** The post-Labour future If polling holds true, then Plaid Cymru and Reform UK will be jostling to be the largest party. Bethan suspects Wales will end up with a minority Plaid Cymru government supported by the third-placed Greens, which could come with some stress points. “There is daylight between them on some of the Greens’ core issues,” she says, including the building of new nuclear power facilities, which Plaid supports while the Greens oppose, and the future of agriculture in Wales – farmers form a crucial voting bloc, given more than 90% of Welsh land is farmed. Losing Labour’s governing role in Cardiff, and the prospect of a Plaid-led government would be another deeply uncomfortable moment for Starmer’s leadership in Downing Street – if he lasts that long. What else we’ve been reading I still play Pokémon on my phone every single day without fail, and as the franchise hits a landmark birthday, Keza MacDonald has this lovely essay about its origins. Martin Morgan McSweeney is gone, but if anyone in Labour thought this was the start of a Starmer revival, John Harris is ready with a cold dose of reality to dampen their spirits. Toby Moses, head of newsletters The global publishing platform Substack is generating revenue from newsletters that promote virulent Nazi ideology, white supremacy and antisemitism, a Guardian investigation has found. Martin How much money do billionaires need? A little bit more, always appears to be the answer. Ed Pilkington and Jeremy Barr dig deep into Jeff Bezos’s decision to gut the Washington Post – the newspaper of Watergate and the Pentagon Papers – despite having presented himself as its saviour when he bought it in 2013 and having a fortune of $245bn. Toby Peter Capaldi is touring his own music for the first time this spring, and for the Quietus names his favourite 13 albums of all time, outing himself as still punk at heart. Martin Sport Football | Manchester City kept their title hopes alive with a comeback victory at Anfield, a 2-1 win secured courtesy a late penalty by Erling Haaland (pictured above). Super Bowl | The Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl champions for the second time in their history after beating the New England Patriots 29-13 at Levi’s Stadium. Winter Olympics | Lindsey Vonn’s comeback came to a cruel end, crashing out on her first attempt at the downhill, with an air ambulance subsequently carrying her off the mountain. The US team later announced she was in a stable condition. The front pages “Starmer fights to regain control over party after McSweeney exit” is the Guardian splash. The Telegraph leads on “Starmer plays his last card as McSweeney leaves No 10”, the FT says “Starmer battles to save premiership after top aide McSweeney steps down” while the Mirror frames McSweeney’s exit as “Blame me”. “Operation save Starmer: No 10 chief forced out to buy PM time” is top story at the i paper, the Times has “PM’s top aide quits over support for Mandelson” and the Mail asks “So how long can Starmer cling on?”. Reporting on the Epstein files fallout, the Sun says “Andy Leaked Envoy Docs to Epstein”. Today in Focus A broken high street and its billionaire owners The whole town centre of Newton Aycliffe in County Durham is owned by billionaire brothers – so why is it so run down? Josh Halliday reports. Cartoon of the day | Tom Gauld The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad Lisa Walker found a new way to connect with her sons after they left home: by still walking together as a family. On a 30-day Camino de Santiago trek, the family became “four adults negotiating the day,” no longer strictly parents and children. What started as a symbolic farewell as Lisa prepared to become an empty nester has become a lasting ritual. “These walks give us unbroken, shared time in a world of fragmented attention,” she says, whether on the Larapinta Trail, the Three Capes Track or K’gari Great Walk. Through sore feet and democratic decisions they keep walking together. “Phones drop out of service. Conversations unfold slowly. We learn who each other has become.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Iran arrests leading reformists close to the country’s president

The head of Iran’s Reformists Front, the organisation that was instrumental in securing the election of the country’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has been arrested by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in a move that will probably deepen the tensions over the handling of the recent street protests. Azar Mansouri, the secretary general of the Islamic Iran People party, had expressed deep sorrow at protesters’ deaths, and said nothing could justify such a catastrophe. She had not in public called for the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to resign. In what looked like a decisive roundup of the key reformist figures outside government, Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, the head of the front’s political committee, and Mohsen Aminzadeh, a deputy foreign minister under the former president Mohammad Khatami, were also arrested. At least two other prominent figures in the Reformists Front, an umbrella group of as many as 27 reformist factions, have been ordered to appear at police stations this week. The moves seem designed to prevent the spread of criticism of the way the security services handled the protests. The official government death toll is 3,000, but others put the figure substantially higher. The prosecutors’ office in Tehran claimed those arrested had made every effort to “justify the actions of the terrorists’ infantry”, and stated they were acting in league with the US and Israel. They were also accused of “targeting national unity, taking a stance against the constitution, promoting surrender, perverting political groups and creating secret subversive mechanisms”. Justifying the unprecedented crackdown, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the head of the judiciary, said: “Those who issue statements against the Islamic Republic from within are in agreement with the Zionist regime and America.” He described the people who issued the statement as “wretched and miserable” and threatened they would “suffer losses”. In a statement last week, Mansouri said: “We will not allow the blood of these dear ones to be consigned to oblivion or the truth to be lost in the dust. Pursuing your rights and striving to clarify the truth is the human duty of us all. And with all our being, we declare our disgust and anger toward those who, ruthlessly and recklessly, dragged the youth of this land into earth and blood. “No power, no justification and no time can sanitise this great catastrophe,” she added. Mansouri has not supported foreign interventions. Her seizure follows the arrest of four other Iranian human-rights defenders who had signed a statement backed by 17 prominent activists demanding a “free, transparent referendum” to establish a new, democratic government in Iran. Three signatories were initially arrested – Vida Rabbani, Abdollah Momeni and Mehdi Mahmoudian – but it appeared a fourth signatory, Dr Ghorban Behzadian-Nejad, a senior adviser to Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the reformist prime minister, was also arrested. The statement from the 17 read: “The mass killing of justice seekers who courageously protested this illegitimate system was an organised state crime against humanity.” It condemned the firing on civilians, the attacks on the wounded and the denial of medical care as “acts against Iran’s security and betrayal of the homeland”. Separately, Narges Mohammadi, the Nobel peaceprize winner arrested 59 days ago, was given a new seven-year jail sentence. She was briefly allowed to speak to her lawyer Mostafa Nili for the first time on Sunday. She revealed she had been transferred to hospital but had been then sent back to jail before her treatment was complete. Pezeshkian has set up an inquiry into the protests, but it is unlikely to be critical of the IRGC, and the arrests of his former supporters show how little influence he wields over the key decision-makers in the government, a point that will be underlined if he remains silent about the arrest of his backers. On a turnout of 49.7%, Pezeshkian won the presidency in June 2024 with 16.4m votes, decisively defeating his rival, Saeed Jalili, with 13.5m votes, yet Pezeshkian has struggled to use his mandate. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has brought forward a trip to Washington to lobby President Trump to include Iran’s missile programme in the talks under way between the US and Iran. The talks in Muscat mediated by Oman that started on Friday are due to recommence this week, and Trump has said he is willing for the talks to focus solely on curtailing Iran’s nuclear programme, a position that alarms the Israelis and some in the Republican party.

‘We’ve lost everything’: anger and despair in Sicilian town collapsing after landslide

For days, the 25,000 residents of the Sicilian town of Niscemi have been living on the edge of a 25-metre abyss. On 25 January, after torrential rain brought by Cyclone Harry, a devastating landslide ripped away an entire slope of the town, creating a 4km-long chasm. Roads collapsed, cars were swallowed, and whole sections of the urban fabric plunged into the valley below. Dozens of houses hang precariously over the edge of the landslide, while vehicles and fragments of roadway continue to give way, hour by hour, under the strain of unstable ground. Authorities have evacuated more than 1,600 people so far. Entire sections of the historic centre are at risk, including 17th-century churches that could slide downhill at any moment. According to geologists and environmental experts, the landslide in Niscemi is the latest sign of how the climate emergency is reshaping the Mediterranean, where there has been indifference to decades of flawed building policies and an out-of-control model of urbanisation. “It all happened in a matter of moments,” said Salvatrice Disca, 70. She had been living in one of the homes now within the red zone designated by authorities as being at risk of collapse. “The power went out, and a few minutes later the police knocked on our door. They told us to leave immediately, to abandon everything and take only the essentials – a few blankets and our medicines. For a week we were unable even to wash or change what we were wearing.” Most of those evacuated are staying with relatives, while the oldest have been moved to care homes. Others have been temporarily housed in bed-and-breakfasts. Outside the red zone, firefighters have set up a tent where residents wait to be escorted by rescue officials to retrieve valuables, photographs and paintings they were unable to gather as they fled their homes. Authorised by rescue teams, the Guardian joined a mission inside the red zone, accompanying firefighters. Among the buildings destined to be abandoned permanently is a well-known pizzeria, A Barunissa. Its owner, Benedetta Ragusa, 41, has only minutes to salvage machinery and furnishings. The landslide is advancing. Last week, a three-storey residential building broke away from the edge of the precipice and smashed into the landslide’s steep slope below, after teetering on the brink for six days. “We’re emptying the place,” Ragusa said. “It’s over. We’ve lost everything.” A hush has settled over the town, the kind that arrives just before catastrophe: the streets have emptied, the urban landscape reduced to a ghost town in the aftermath of the landslide. Perched on the edge of the mudflow, the Biblioteca Marsiano, a public library, hangs over the void. Its basement holds more than 4,000 rare and historically valuable books. Writers have urged authorities to recover the collection, including rare pre-1830 editions on Sicilian history, but the library lies in the “black zone”, off-limits even to firefighters – leaving the books’ fate, like that of hundreds of inhabitants, uncertain. “People are traumatised,” said Davide Cascio, 38, a volunteer with Outside, which is providing support to evacuees. “For many, this was not just a house: within those walls was their entire life, their memories. There is a mix of anger and despair, because they know this disaster could have been prevented.” The same stretch in the town had already collapsed in 1790, when a landslide forced people to flee the Sante Croci neighbourhood. More than two centuries later, in October 1997, the ground gave way again, triggering mass evacuations. Despite this history, many buildings in the area were erected decades later, from the 1950s and 60s onward, alongside 17th-century homes. “My family lived in that house for three generations,” said Sofia Salvo, 61, a primary school teacher unable to return home since the landslide. “We renovated it for my retirement, after my grandfather and father built it legally. Now it’s gone, and I keep asking why the authorities allowed it in a risk area. Someone has to take responsibility.” The public prosecutor’s office in Gela, a few kilometres from Niscemi, has opened an investigation into negligent disaster. “We are examining a substantial body of material, including images provided by the Italian Space Agency,” Salvatore Vella, the chief prosecutor in Gela, said. “Witness hearings will follow. One thing is certain: no one will be spared scrutiny.” What happened in Niscemi is far from an isolated case. According to geologists and environmental experts, it is the outcome of decades of reckless housing and planning policies, which, since the second world war, have largely ignored the country’s acute hydrogeological vulnerability. Italy has built hundreds of new neighbourhoods and thousands of homes in fragile areas: along riverbeds, on unstable slopes, near cliffs, and in zones exposed to landslides, floods and seismic risk. In short, places where people should never have been encouraged to live. According to a report by the national statistics agency Istat, released last November, for every 100 new homes built in Italy, 15 lack the necessary authorisations – in a country that, according to the Italian environmental association Legambiente, has recorded about 17,000 major landslides in more than 14,000 locations in just over a century, resulting in nearly 6,000 direct deaths. In 1998, one of Italy’s deadliest landslides hit the city of Sarno in the southern Campania region. After days of heavy rain, entire hillsides collapsed, killing 160 people. Investigations later showed that many homes had been built illegally on unstable slopes. “Over the past 70 years, a series of poor choices has compounded the damage,” said Christian Mulder, a professor of ecology and climate emergency at the University of Catania in Sicily. “Money from the European recovery programme, received after world war two, was badly spent in Italy, fuelling a reckless model of urbanisation that ignored environmental risk.” Between 1948 and 1952, Italy received about $1.5bn in aid under the programme, known as the Marshall plan. Those funds fed rapid urbanisation in a country with weak planning and widespread clientelism, especially in the south. The result was a disaster, now made irreversible by the accelerating climate emergency. “These are not reassuring rains but violent downpours, dumping a year’s worth of water in a few hours and triggering landslides,” Mulder warned. “With the Mediterranean among its hottest years on record in 2025, warmer seas are supercharging the atmosphere and fuelling extreme events like Cyclone Harry, which struck Niscemi and the rest of the island.” The destructive force of Harry, with winds exceeding 60mph and seas whipped into waves reaching up to 15 metres, left a long trail of devastation in Sicily, destroying ports, damaging homes, tearing up roads and causing an estimated €2bn (£1.73bn) in losses. Legambiente said that in 2025 alone, the island was hit by 45 extreme weather events, each significantly damaging public and private infrastructure. In Niscemi, another flank of the town gave way. The city rests on a fragile clay base, and once again the ground slid downhill. An elderly couple, who for 10 days had been waiting for permission to retrieve a few clothes left behind, were turned back by firefighters. It was too dangerous, they were told, to venture into alleys already marked for collapse. They walked back out of the red zone with their heads bowed. One of them shook her head, as if still negotiating with the reality. Tears came, quietly. They knew they will have to wait longer before returning home. And they knew, more painfully still, that they may never return at all.