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The EU’s Canada offer is more mood than reality but it could hint at a future geometry for the bloc

The EU and Canada, Ursula von der Leyen said last week, “see the world with the same eyes”, with shared stances on everything from AI to the climate crisis, the Ukraine war and the unholy chaos unleashed by the current occupant of the White House (OK, she didn’t actually say that last bit. But I like to think she almost certainly thought it.) So, the European Commission president went on, Canada should become “the first associate member of the EU”. In the audience, Mark Carney beamed with delight. The next day, Canada’s prime minister enthusiastically embraced the idea of an “alliance for the future”, to build “collective resilience” through “deep cooperation”. Cue standing ovations, warm handshakes – and a great deal of head-scratching in Brussels and assorted EU capitals. Because “associate membership” of the EU is not, in fact, a thing. Nor, as a Guardian editorial pointed out, is there “any blueprint for what such a thing might involve”. The term was, the editorial argued, “a political hypothesis”, describing “a relationship of intimate strategic alignment with the EU, stopping short of actual membership, in ways that are significant but undefined”. So what exactly are the commission and Canada playing at here, and where might it lead? You can see where they’re coming from. On paper, in a world of unpredictable and increasingly aggressive great powers, it makes perfect sense. For Canada – which already has the Ceta free trade agreement with the EU – the catalyst for even closer cooperation is clearly Donald Trump: incessant tariff threats, an escalating trade war, bullying talk of Canada as the “51st state”, the renaming of Lake Ontario – all have left Ottawa eager to diversify its relations. Aligning with European industrial strategy, working together on defence and AI, and joining EU scientific research and student exchange programmes would offer Canada a reliable counterweight to its all-too-unreliable southern neighbour. (Unsurprisingly, Trump called the tie-up “laughable”, and threatened more tariffs.) For the EU, meanwhile, Canada is a dream partner: a stable, like-minded “middle power” rich in critical minerals, rare earths and – as Carney couldn’t resist noting – good manners. Plus, Canada’s unbridled EU-enthusiasm is a pleasing boost to the bloc’s bruised ego after Iceland’s recent rejection of more EU accession negotiations. There’s only one problem: “associate membership” is not a status in the EU treaties, and creating such a status would mean treaty reform, which member states won’t contemplate. There are things called “association agreements”, such as with Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia, but those are essentially stepping stones to full membership – which Canada can’t aspire to, for the very good reason that it isn’t in Europe. But if “associate member” sounds vaguely familiar, that’s because the EU has been talking about a “second circle” since the days of Jacques Delors: an outer ring of countries bound by shared values, free trade and security cooperation to an inner core of members, but without full voting rights or complete regulatory integration. Emmanuel Macron’s European Political Community is a variation on this theme, and Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently floated “associate member” status for Ukraine. Indeed, non-EU nations in the European Economic Area (EEA) and European Free Trade Association, such as Norway, Iceland or Switzerland, already function as quasi-associate members, enjoying single-market access while being largely “rule-takers”: adopting EU rules without having a vote in Brussels. Writing in the Guardian, Fabian Zuleeg suggested that Canada and Europe actually need more of an “integrated partnership” – a model that leaves single market access to one side, focusing instead on concrete collaboration in areas such as defence, supply chains and EU programmes like Horizon and Erasmus+. Alberto Alemanno, a professor of EU law, noted that a realistic EU-Canada landing zone would have to go further than Ceta and might more resemble the kind of tailored framework of the EU-Swiss relationship. But the real significance of any formal new status, he said, was that it could make the EU “an institutional hub around which other democracies organise strategic autonomy – but without joining the union”. What that might actually look like is anyone’s guess: visa-free work access, shared military procurement, Canadian seats on EU regulatory committees? For the moment, Canada’s hypothetical “associate membership” is more of a mood than a reality: the expressed intent of a democratic bloc and a middle power to deepen ties in the face of mounting global uncertainty. Does it, all the same, hold any hope for Brexit-regretting Britain? As Jill Rutter of the Institute for Government highlighted, the EU’s sudden willingness to display “institutional imagination” at least shows that the bloc is willing to think about adapting when geopolitical pressures demand. But a new deal for Canada won’t automatically fix the UK’s issues. As Joël Reland of UK in a Changing Europe pointed out, the vagueness of the EU offer to Canada might look promising for the UK. But Canada wants “deep cooperation” without touching single-market rules, and the UK’s main problem is that it is now shut out of that same market. Whatever Canada eventually gets, it’s unlikely to work for the UK. *** A miserable time for Merz Friedrich Merz is in trouble. A fortnight after the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) swept to a crushing victory in one state election in Saxony-Anhalt, the German chancellor’s centre-right CDU failed to clear the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament in another, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. It fared a little better in Berlin, where it was the incumbent, but was still beaten – by a clear five-point margin – by the far-left Die Linke. And the AfD made headway in the capital, too, surging to a double-digit result. The embattled chancellor has vowed to fight on, but faces an uncomfortable choice: revise the unpopular economic reforms he insists are essential, or risk oblivion defending them. Meanwhile, as long as he refuses to step aside and no one is actively seeking to replace him, a volatile and damaging deadlock will reign in Europe’s biggest economy. After 16 months in office, it is becoming increasingly clear – as a Guardian editorial noted – that Merz is “ill-suited for the job” of defending Germany’s democratic future against the far right. To receive the complete version of This Is Europe in your inbox every Wednesday, please subscribe here.

Delcy Rodríguez poses with Trump in New York as Maduro languishes in jail nearby

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, has celebrated a “historic” meeting with Donald Trump in New York, posing for a smiley photo with the US president, less than nine months after he ordered the abduction of her boss, Nicolás Maduro. The former foes met at a five-star hotel a few blocks from Trump Tower in Manhattan late on Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN general assembly. The hotel is about 7 miles from the Brooklyn prison where Maduro has been held since he was snatched during a special forces raid on Caracas in January. On the eve of Tuesday’s encounter, an American reporter asked Rodríguez if she would be visiting Maduro, under whom she served as vice-president, during her stay in New York. She did not reply. But she did find time to meet Trump at the luxury Lotte New York Palace hotel, with the get-together seen as a key part of Rodríguez’s push for international legitimacy after years of Venezuela’s diplomatic isolation under Maduro’s dictatorship. On Wednesday she is expected to address the annual UN assembly. “We held a historic meeting with … Donald Trump, with whom we discussed strengthening the bilateral relationship between our countries and advancing a cooperation agenda in strategic areas such as energy, mining, security and other matters of common interest,” Rodríguez wrote on Instagram, in a 133-word statement that made no mention of her incarcerated ally. Oliver Blanco, one of Rodríguez’s top diplomats, claimed the meeting marked “a new stage of dialogue and understanding between both countries” and was “an important step toward new opportunities for our country and our people”. Blanco also posted a cheery photo in which he and Trump smiled and gave the thumbs up to the camera. A White House aide said the meeting was also attended by top US officials including the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and the deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller. Hours earlier, Rodríguez had sat in the general assembly hall watching Trump celebrate the “massive military operation” during which Maduro – whom he called an “outlaw dictator” and “a real criminal” – was captured. “It was a war … [and] to the victor belong the spoils,” Trump bragged of the recent oil deal between the US and Venezuela, as Rodríguez appeared to wince. Some observers also detected signs of discomfort in the body language captured in the photo of Trump and Rodríguez, who appeared to be clenching her left fist. Some of Rodríguez’s critics in Venezuela called her treatment by Trump an unmitigated humiliation for a socialist party politician who has spent years railing against American imperialism. After Maduro’s capture, Trump warned that Rodríguez would “pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” if she did not toe the US line. Since then, Rodríguez has made a series of concessions, including ceding control of Venezuela’s oil revenues to Washington and agreeing to a controversial 65bn-barrel oil deal that Trump on Tuesday called “the largest oil deal in history”. One opposition figure denounced the Rodríguez-Trump meeting as an encounter between a “shameless puppet and her unscrupulous puppeteer”. But Rodríguez has succeeded in consolidating power, with Trump seemingly more focused on gaining access to Venezuela’s natural resources than pushing for a fresh presidential election that would move the South American country back towards democracy. Trump has repeatedly praised Rodríguez’s “fantastic” and “terrific” leadership while sidelining her main rival, the opposition leader María Corina Machado. Machado, who left Venezuela late last year to receive her Nobel peace prize in Oslo, has been unable to return and is exiled in Panama. She reportedly made three attempts to return to Venezuela this week but failed. Orlando Pérez, a Latin America expert from the University of North Texas at Dallas, rejected the idea that Rodríguez had been humiliated by her meeting with Trump. “It’s a huge triumph [for her]. She got the photo op she wanted. I frankly don’t think you can overestimate how important the photo op was for her,” said Pérez, who believed the image legitimised Rodríguez’s position as president and signalled that Washington was happy to keep working with her and for other leaders to engage with her. For Trump, meeting Rodríguez was a way to show Maga voters he had “won Venezuela” by commandeering its massive oil reserves with January’s invasion. “So that picture was a win-win for Delcy and for Trump,” Pérez added. Before Tuesday’s tête-à-tête, the presidents of the US and Venezuela had last met in 2015, when Barack Obama and Maduro spoke briefly during a regional summit in Panama. In the decade that followed, Maduro became an international pariah as he led his country into economic chaos and increasingly authoritarian rule, and Venezuela was hit by punishing international sanctions. At the 2015 summit, Obama conceded that the days in which “the US could meddle with impunity” in Latin America were over. But Trump has dramatically different ideas and has been forging ahead with attempts to reassert US dominance in a region it has long considered its back yard. As well as capturing Venezuela’s government and trying to topple Cuba’s communist government by strangling its economy, Trump’s push for hegemony has also seen the US accused of trying to swing Brazil’s presidential election in favour of the far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro through diplomatic and economic pressure. Addressing the UN assembly on Tuesday, the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, hit back at such efforts, without directly citing the US. “We will not allow the enemies of democracy – internal or external – to attack the will of the people. Brazilian democracy belongs to the Brazilians,” said Lula who is facing a tough battle to win re-election in October’s vote. “Brazil doesn’t fit into anyone’s back yard,” added Lula, who also called for fresh elections in Venezuela. He did not meet Rodríguez during her visit to New York but said the “people of Venezuela deserve to decide their own future”.

Police use teargas on protesters as disabled woman, 87, evicted from Madrid home

There were violent scenes in Madrid on Wednesday as riot police fought with protesters trying to prevent the eviction of an 87-year-old disabled woman from her apartment in the Retiro district. Hundreds of protesters had gathered, many of them overnight, in an effort to block the fourth attempt to carry out the eviction. Activists from the Madrid and Barcelona tenants’ union, and celebrities including the actor Carlos Bardem and the singer and actor Ana Belén, joined the protest. Police fired rounds of teargas and made repeated baton charges as they tried to open a path for a judicial committee to carry out the eviction order, which was eventually executed on Wednesday morning. The tenant, known simply by her first name, Maricarmen, is about to turn 88. Demonstrators chanted “Ayuso’s attic for Maricarmen”, a reference to the scandal surrounding the Madrid regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso’s alleged purchase with public money of a €6.3m residential apartment for her use as a temporary office. Behind the building’s locked door, more protesters occupied the staircase leading to Maricarmen’s flat while neighbours handed out snacks and offered the demonstrators the use of their bathrooms. When a developer bought the building Maricarmen had lived in for 71 years, she was offered the chance to buy her apartment for €247,000 (£212,000), an impossible sum for a pensioner. They then raised her rent from €500 to €1,650 a month, while she receives a state pension of €1,350. An unnamed “prominent” writer offered to pay the €1,150 difference indefinitely but their offer was ignored. In a video recorded by the local tenants’ union before the eviction, a tearful Maricarmen said: “Good morning, everyone, I thank you for the action you are taking, spending the whole night sleeping in the street. Please, keep going, but don’t hurt one another. This has to be peaceful. “I can still hear all your noise. A hug to everyone and to all the people who are supporting me in this cruel struggle against a person who wants to make money but who should not forget that they have parents and that one day they could find themselves in the situation that unfortunately I am in.” The original 1956 contract for the flat was in Maricarmen’s father’s name. When he died, the apartment passed to his wife, and on her death in 2008 it was then sublet to Maricarmen. The landlords, Urbagestión SL, successfully argued in the supreme court that this subletting was invalid and that the contract was no longer valid. Urbagestión SL has been approached for comment. Speaking at the scene, Aldo Reverte, a spokesperson for the Confederation of Tenants’ Unions, said: “Maricarmen’s case is just one more example of what happens when housing is put in the hands of landlords. The difference is that a lot of people have become aware of her situation and the tenants’ union has shown that we can fight this type of barbaric behaviour.” However, for all their efforts, the protesters were unable to stop the eviction. Beatriz Duro, the lawyer representing Maricarmen, said: “The owner isn’t prepared to negotiate or accept any sort of offer. We have asked for a place where we can take Maricarmen’s personal belongings.” So far this year, 4,000 evictions have been carried out in Spain.

Iran denies dropping preconditions amid ‘very productive’ three-hour UN talks in New York

Iran has pushed back on claims that it dropped former preconditions for reopening the strait of Hormuz in surprise talks held in New York under the mediation of Qatar between Tehran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Trump said the three-hour talks held in a room at the UN headquarters had gone very well and been very productive. He suggested further talks were possible imminently, which led to the price of a barrel of Brent crude to fall to below $100 (£75) for the first time in two weeks. Witkoff said the talks had been “encouraging, constructive and successful”. In his speech to the UN general assembly, Trump said he had a decision to make very soon on whether to “annihilate the Islamic Republic” or help turn it into one of the great countries of the Middle East, the kind of bombastic threat Trump often deploys during talks with Iran. In Tehran, the foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, confirmed the talks had occurred, but appeared not to confirm any shift in the Iranian negotiating position. He said: “The interaction that took place with the American side was through Qatari mediation. This interaction was aimed at conveying Iran’s conditions, including the end of the war in all its dimensions, the cessation of American aggressive actions, the naval siege, and the economic war, the release of Iranian assets and so on.” Aware of the potential domestic backlash, he added that Iran’s conditions had been conveyed. Iran set seven preconditions before returning to talks, and in a new development over the past 48 hours said the crucial strait of Hormuz could be reopened within seven days if those conditions were met. It is likely that the US and the Gulf states would have to accept a navigational route for shipping in the strait of Hormuz – a key waterway for transporting oil – that requires commercial shipping to enter through a sea lane mainly in Iranian waters and under Iranian rather than Omani control. The fact that the talks lasted three hours suggests some progress was made. The US side is under pressure to leverage down oil prices and increase the availability of refined oil before the midterm elections in November. Latest published figures suggest the number of identifiable tankers making it through the strait is fewer than five a day, but estimates of the US navy are much higher. The blockage in the strait is made worse by the uncertainty surrounding the control by the Houthis’ (the Iranian-backed Yemeni paramilitaries) of a second energy transport chokepoint, the Bab al-Mandab strait that leads from the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean. There is little sign that Trump wants to relaunch a full-scale war with Iran or indeed with the Houthis as Republicans battle to turn the domestic political agenda away from a hugely unpopular war that the Americans think they are losing. Iran is under ever more intense pressure from sanctions, and a US naval blockade is making it nearly impossible for Iran to export oil, depriving the country of badly needed foreign currency. Iran’s civilian aircraft on Wednesday faced a potential worldwide grounding owing to the threat of US secondary sanctions on any entity that engaged with Iran’s civilian fleet. Iranian officials negotiated frantically with neighbouring countries to try to maintain an air bridge, but it appears Oman and Iraq have been forced to close their airspace to Iranian civilian planes. The president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is due to address the UN general assembly on Wednesday after arriving in New York on a flight from Tehran as talks were under way. Pezeshkian is an advocate of negotiations with the US but has not played a direct role in the talks. He has said the memorandum of understanding (MoU), agreed with the US on 17 June, remained the starting point. Implementation of the MoU fell apart after the two sides accused one another of breaching its terms by trying to take control of the strait. Iran said the MoU clearly left Iran in control of the strait for an interim period before a long-term agreement on its management was reached, including the possibility of Oman and Iran charging fees for navigational services. Pezeshkian is expected to condemn western double standards over what he regards as an illegal US assault on Iran that has left schoolchildren dead and infrastructure ravaged. Europe’s preparedness to call out Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, and its reticence in criticising the attack on Iran, or Israel’s treatment of Palestinians in Gaza, has been a constant theme of Pezeshkian’s remarks. Many of the most powerful speeches on Tuesday at the UN general assembly came from European and Arab politicians who decried the inability of the west to enforce peace. In his farewell speech to the UN, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, criticised the attempt to overthrow the Iranian government by the US and Israel, arguing: “Every time a few states, sometimes even in the name of international order, have tried to replace the people in order to change a regime or a system, they have plunged those states into even greater chaos.” He also said that the west had not imposed a peace in Gaza. “Some boast of a supposed peace. But this peace hasn’t reopened humanitarian routes for a single second. Must we stand by and watch this spectacle that shames us all? Never!” Macron landed himself in hot water with Israel when he suggested Hamas was not present in the West Bank, as opposed to Gaza. Netanyahu’s office responded, using the biblical name for the West Bank: “Hamas terrorists carry out attacks against Jews almost every day. They have murdered countless Israeli civilians in Judea and Samaria.” Jordan’s King Abdullah II attacked the Israeli government for “moving the goalposts”, for continuing attacks and the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Gaza, and for refusing to withdraw from the war-torn Palestinian territory. This has forced the Palestinian population in Gaza into barely one-third of the territory, he said. Observers must no longer treat Israeli policies as “temporary military measures” or a “consequence of war”, he said. “Accountability begins when we call things what they are: an attempt to erase Palestinian life and impose a new territorial reality in Gaza,” he added.

Chagos Islands deal ‘can’t go ahead’ without US support, Streeting says

Wes Streeting has said annual payments worth at least £120m to Mauritius are on hold as the government reconsiders its deal over the Chagos Islands, after Donald Trump refused to back the agreement. The defence secretary said the payments would not be made “at this stage” and confirmed the deal “can’t go ahead without US support”. Last year, the UK signed a treaty to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while retaining control of the joint UK-US military base on Diego Garcia under a 99-year lease. Mauritius was also set to receive £165m for three years and £120m a year from the fourth year. Asked on BBC Radio 4 Today’s programme if the payments would still go ahead, Streeting said: “Not at this stage. We’ve got to get to a point where we can agree a deal … This deal as it is currently constituted can’t go ahead without American support. So we have to get a deal to a place where it commands American support as well as the agreement of the government of Mauritius and our government. “And the reason why that is important is because we are trying to safeguard, not just now but for the longer term, the base at Diego Garcia, and the capability it provides the United Kingdom and the United States for our national and collective security.” Streeting said the payments would be a “price worth paying” if they secured Britain’s long-term ability to operate from Diego Garcia. Trump doubled down on his criticism of the agreement when he met Andy Burnham at the UN general assembly in New York on Tuesday, describing the deal to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius as “terrible”. “I don’t support it,” Trump told reporters after a bilateral meeting with Burnham on the fringes of the general assembly adding: “I think it’s a terrible deal.” After meeting Trump, the prime minister said the government would “work hard” to find a resolution that was acceptable to the different sides. Streeting said Trump’s criticism had not come as a surprise to ministers. “This isn’t news to us,” he said, “President Trump has been clear that he has concerns about the deal as it’s currently constituted. We will work through the detail of the US concerns and seek to reach a point that all of us can sign up to.” The agreement can’t proceed as it is without US support because of the importance of the joint UK-US military base on Diego Garcia, Streeting said. The defence secretary also warned that Britain could not adopt an “ostrich strategy” of sticking its head in the sand and hoping the row over the Chagos Islands would go away, as he warned settling the dispute would involve “painstaking work”. “The strategy is not to wait out President Trump. I think the approach will be to work with President Trump and his administration,” Streeting told Times Radio. “I’m not pretending that’s an easy position and that resolving this is not going to be difficult. It is difficult and necessarily painstaking work, but it is necessary. “And the ostrich strategy of sticking our heads in the sand … , I would caution is not a wise strategy when it concerns one of the most sensitive national security assets we have anywhere in the world,” Streeting added. He also warned ignoring that Mauritius’s claim to sovereignty posed its own risk to the military base’s future. He said the ruling from the international court of justice in 2019 is “advisory now, [but] there is a potential further course of legal action avenue open to the government of Mauritius”.

Top South African police officer charged with raping woman, 18, and grooming 16-year-old girl

One of South Africa’s most senior police officers has been charged with raping an 18-year-old woman and grooming a 16-year-old girl, as the country’s police face allegations of corruption and failing to tackle violence against women and girls. Shadrack Sibiya, who was already suspended from his role as deputy national police commissioner over allegations he interfered with political killings investigations, was arrested on Monday. He is facing charges of rape, people trafficking, promoting the sexual grooming of a child and two counts of grooming a child. Sibiya appeared briefly in a Johannesburg court on Tuesday. He was then taken to prison in the capital, Pretoria, before a bail hearing on 29 September, as prosecutors had argued he was an escape risk. South Africa is reeling after the discovery of nine women’s bodies across Ekurhuleni, the municipality east of Johannesburg, in September. Meanwhile, the Madlanga Commission judicial inquiry has been examining allegations of corruption and criminality within the police for the last year. Puleng Dimpane, the acting national police commissioner, said: “Police officers are entrusted with protecting women and children. They cannot themselves be implicated in conduct that undermines this responsibility. As the country continues to confront the scourge of gender-based violence and femicide, there can be no room for anyone within the police service who is alleged to abuse their position or violate the rights of women and children.” Sibiya is accused of raping an 18-year-old woman at a hotel in May in the Sandton business district of Johannesburg. The alleged rape took place “whilst she was passed out due to intoxication administered by the accused”, according to a copy of the charge sheet. The alleged grooming of the 16-year-old girl took place over WhatsApp between 20 July and 3 August, according to the charge sheet. This allegedly included Sibiya sending the girl naked photos of herself, which she had not sent to him. Sibiya did not enter a plea at the hearing on Tuesday. His lawyer told the court that they needed more time to consult with and get instructions from him, according to News24. Firoz Cachalia, the acting police minister, said: “We strongly condemn the alleged conduct. “Where allegations of sexual offences are made against a member of the service, they must be investigated without fear or favour.” When Sibiya appeared before the Madlanga Commission in February he denied allegations that he had moved 121 political killings investigations from KwaZulu-Natal province to the national head office without explanation. Sibiya also denied that he had received a gift of 20 impalas from Vusimuzi ‘Cat’ Matlala, a businessman who received an allegedly fraudulent 360m rand (£16.7m) police health services contract soon after the alleged gift. Matlala, who has been charged with attempted murder, alongside several other charges including fraud and money laundering, declined to comment on the impalas when he appeared at the Madlanga Commission in August. He said he did not want to incriminate himself as the matter was under investigation.

Fears mount that next UN chief will downgrade climate action

Fears are mounting that the next UN secretary general will downgrade the priority of the climate crisis, according to climate and civil society experts. The current secretary general, António Guterres, has been the most forthright on the subject, calling fossil fuel companies “the godfathers of climate chaos” and warning governments they are rushing down a “highway to hell” by failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions. His repeated championing of the urgency of the crisis and willingness to take on vested interests are credited with significant global impacts, forcing governments to confront their policy failures and keeping alive the aims of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, despite the rising tide of populism and disinformation. Guterres must step down at the end of his second five-year term on 31 December and the choice of his successor will be one of the top concerns among the scores of heads of government meeting in New York this week for the UN general assembly. Many of Guterres’s most likely successors have shown less enthusiasm for tackling the climate crisis, despite rising alarm at its impacts, and experts have told the Guardian that some of the candidates could be “disastrous” yet could enjoy the support of influential countries including the US and its allies. Three candidates in particular have raised concerns: the Argentinian diplomat Rafael Grossi, who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency; Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal; and Olara Otunnu, a Ugandan former presidential candidate who has served as UN undersecretary general for children and armed conflict. Numerous insiders and experts told the Guardian that Grossi was “trying to be a friend of Donald Trump” and maintained close links with Argentina’s populist president, Javier Milei, a climate denier. “Grossi is not a climate denier himself, but those links could lead him to downplay climate,” said one close observer, who could not be named. Sall is seen as a potential champion of gas in Africa as a “transitional fuel”, which many African leaders want to exploit. “I wonder how far he would be willing to push [climate action] when it conflicts with African [fossil fuel] energy interests,” said the observer. Otunnu may feel national pressure on the politics of African gas and oil exploration, as Uganda has discovered large oil and gas deposits that it plans to exploit. “He’s a big question mark,” said another expert. “Given the fossil fuel politics of Uganda, would he make climate constraints politically binding when they conflict with development priorities?” Andreas Sieber, the head of political strategy at the campaign group 350.org, said: “The gender gap is impossible to miss: all five women candidates range from credible to genuinely compelling, while the men could be auditioning for a job description from the past century.” Some candidates have a stronger climate record. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana has pushed strongly for Indigenous rights and social development, particularly on fairer finance. Rebeca Grynspan, an economist from Costa Rica, has linked the climate crisis to debt in the developing world, arguing both crises need to be tackled together. Michelle Bachelet, the former president of Chile, has said governments can no longer treat climate action as a choice but a necessity, but she was reported this week to have dropped out of the race. María Fernanda Espinosa, a former foreign minister of Ecuador, led the country’s negotiating team at several UN climate Cop summits. Ivonne Baki, also known as Ivonne A-Baki, another Ecuadorian former minister, has pioneered several conservation schemes but expressed doubt over the efficacy of emissions reductions, to the consternation of climate campaigners. A spokesperson for Baki told the Guardian: “Ambassador A-Baki’s commitment to climate action is longstanding and unequivocal. What she has questioned is not the need to reduce emissions, but whether climate policy will succeed if it becomes detached from economic realities, development needs and the livelihoods of the people it is intended to protect. Her position is that the world must pursue emissions reductions while dramatically strengthening adaptation, climate finance and protection of the natural systems on which human security depends.” Carlos Lopes, a professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town, said: “There is a real risk that the next secretary general may be less forceful on climate than Guterres has been, not necessarily because of the individual ultimately selected, but because the political environment has changed considerably: climate diplomacy is facing stronger geopolitical headwinds, the multilateral system is under greater strain, and we are seeing forms of ‘climate hushing’, including among countries that only a few years ago wanted to be seen as leaders.” He added: “A new secretary general may understandably want to establish a distinctive agenda, but climate cannot now be treated as one issue among many competing for attention.” Continuing Guterres’s strong sense of mission on the climate must be the minimum for his successor, experts told the Guardian. “It’s absolutely critical that the climate remains at the heart of what the UN does,” said Cosima Cassel, the climate diplomacy programme lead at the E3G thinktank. The new incumbent must take on fossil fuel interests emboldened by the Trump administration and with profits bolstered by soaring fuel prices. Against a rising tide of climate denialism and misinformation, the UN is also asking governments to regulate AI, a task begun under Guterres but which will fall mainly to the next head, and could be crucial in determining whether AI becomes a vast new source of emissions. Focusing on methane – a greenhouse gas 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, which comes from leaky oil and gas operations, waste landfills and agriculture – should be a top priority, said Durwood Zaelke, the president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. “Cutting methane is the single most important strategy to slow near-term warming,” he said. “If we want to stop the punishing heatwaves, we need to turn off the methane blowtorch.” Countries have few constraints on the gas at present: even basic efforts such as plugging abandoned coalmines are still lacking. Electrification, which will be under the spotlight at the Cop31 summit this November, should also be a key push, aided by concerns over oil dependence raised by the Iran war. And climate finance is still not flowing to poor countries: as the tragedy in Nepal demonstrated, countries stricken by climate disaster are not receiving “loss and damage” money promised for their rescue and rehabilitation. The new UN chief must threaten and cajole rich countries into paying their share, even while the UN faces budget cuts of its own amid the withdrawal of US cash. Claudio Angelo, of the Observatório do Clima network in Brazil, said: “A secretary general can only be as good as the institution they head, and the UN is being hollowed out by the US.” Many prominent figures in climate diplomacy see the UN as an essential linchpin in climate action. Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland, said: “We are watching the planet’s life support systems collapse around us. This could not be more urgent. The next secretary general doesn’t just need to match the ambitions of previous SGs, they have to make this one of their top priorities and be a beacon for leaders all over the world to phase out fossil fuels.”