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Paul Keating says Aukus locking Australia into a US war against China, which it would ‘certainly lose’

Aukus critic Paul Keating has said the submarine deal is locking Australia in to any future US conflict with China – “a war America would certainly lose” – and making Australia a target for retribution. The former prime minister seized on comments reported out of Washington this week from Republican congressman Michael McCaul – a China hawk and co-chair of the Congressional Friends of Australia caucus – who said “Australia is a target” for enemies of the US already. However, McCaul argued that greater integration with the US military would better protect Australia rather than leaving it more vulnerable. McCaul also said it was “logical to assume” US nuclear-powered submarines rotating through Australian bases could also be nuclear armed after 2032, and that Australia’s participation in a US war against China over Taiwan was assumed by the US military establishment. “I don’t think it was even questioned. It’s just obvious,” McCaul said. “Australia, being a Five Eyes [intelligence-sharing network member] and an ally of the United States, would be at odds with China invading Taiwan and threatening the Indo-Pacific.” He said it was “absolutely critical” for Australian to back any US intervention to protect Taiwan. McCaul met with the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, the defence minister, Richard Marles, and the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, during a visit to Australia this month. Keating said the US would “certainly lose” in a war with China over Taiwan. “But having lost, [the US would] scuttle itself back to San Diego, leaving Australia vulnerable to China for having participated in a military escapade against it and its military assets.” Keating said Australia’s increasing enmeshment within the US military, especially through Aukus, was seeing Australia’s “sovereignty effectively being shredded”. “Australia is now getting locked in and locked up to the military prerogatives of the United States.” The Guardian revealed last week that the US military, and its corporate interests, control, or have access to, more than 100 military bases across the Australian continent. More than half of the military installations in Australia have some level of US control or access. Intelligence sites such as Pine Gap play a critical role in US warfighting, downlinking masses of surveillance data from satellites, and providing targeting information for US strikes. In parliament this week, Greens senator David Shoebridge seized on McCaul’s further comments that he considered Australia a “beachhead” for the US in its efforts to deter China and maintain peace in the region. “The US spruikers of Aukus have said they want to make Australia the beachhead for US military war against China,” Shoebridge told a press conference at Parliament House. “I want to be clear what happens at a beachhead: people get killed at a beachhead, destruction happens at a beachhead in someone else’s war. “How on Earth does Aukus make us safe, when a foreign military is bringing their nuclear-armed submarines into this country and consciously saying they want our country to be the beachhead in a war with China? It’s time we ended Aukus before we become the US’s beachhead.” Under Pillar One of the proposed Aukus agreement – a multi-decade deal slated to cost Australia $368bn to the mid-2050s – Australia will buy three “in-service” Virginia-class nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines from the US, beginning in 2032. From the early 2040s, Australia expects to deploy a new, larger Aukus-class submarine. The new class will be designed in the UK and the first boat built for the Royal Navy. Australia will then build five Aukus submarines - except for their nuclear reactors - in South Australia. America’s Virginia class submarines do not currently carry nuclear weapons but, from 2032, the US navy is planning to equip some of its Virginia boats with nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles. The regular rotation of US nuclear submarines through HMAS Stirling is also part of Aukus cooperation. The US has a policy of “strategic ambiguity” around the deployment of its nuclear arsenal, refusing to confirm or deny the presence of nuclear weapons on platforms around the world. The Treaty of Rarotonga prohibits Australia from “stationing” nuclear weapons on its territory.

Russians go to polls against backdrop of Ukraine war and Putin’s tightening grip

Russians are going to the polls to elect a new State Duma in a tightly controlled vote stripped of meaningful competition and with little doubt about the result. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia is expected to extend the grip on parliament it has held for 23 years, alongside a handful of nominal opposition parties that reliably vote with the Kremlin on the issues that matter. The three-day vote begins on Friday, with results expected after polls close on Sunday. For all the predictability of the outcome, the first Duma election since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is taking place against the backdrop of a war that, once distant for many Russians, is increasingly intruding into everyday life. Swarms of Ukrainian drones have struck oil refineries, factories and logistics hubs across Russia over the summer, while polling has pointed to growing anxiety about the course of the fighting and what may still lie ahead. Against that backdrop, the Kremlin has tightened its grip further. Last month, the authorities barred Yabloko, the liberal anti-war party, from the ballot, removing the only political force remaining in Russia that was openly challenging the invasion of Ukraine. That leaves a handful of other parties, from the Communists to the far-right Liberal Democrats, which together form what is known in Russia as the “systemic opposition”: groups permitted to criticise the authorities at the margins, but which fall into line with United Russia on issues that matter to the Kremlin. For years, they have served as a political safety valve, giving voters somewhere to register discontent without posing a serious threat to the ruling party’s dominance. But even by the diminished standards of Russian politics, these parliamentary campaigns have been strikingly lifeless. “In most elections, candidates compete for attention. In Russia this year, many are doing the opposite,” said Farida Rustamova, a political analyst and founder of the independent Vlast newsletter. “No one wants to come into the spotlight or discuss anything sensitive.” Most candidates have barely campaigned at all, she noted. Televised debates have at times taken place in half-empty studios because politicians failed to turn up, producing awkward clips that quickly became memes online. United Russia’s campaign videos have leaned heavily on low-budget AI, with few memorable slogans or promises. None of the parties has dared to address the growing questions surrounding the continuing war that increasingly dominate private conversations. “The Kremlin is deliberately keeping the election low-key, as greater interest would not benefit them. They don’t want to discuss difficult issues and just [want to] get it over with,” said a person close to the Kremlin, speaking on condition of anonymity. By keeping the election subdued, Moscow hoped to depress turnout among disaffected and independent-minded voters while ensuring its own supporters made it to the polls, said Rustamova. Yabloko’s exclusion followed the same logic. Several observers believe that officials had initially expected the party to receive a negligible result, demonstrating how little support remained for an explicitly anti-war platform. But when polling instead suggested growing support for the party, the authorities removed it from the ballot rather than risk an unscripted result. Vladimir Gelman, a professor of Russian politics at the University of Helsinki, said another purpose of the elections was to provide the Kremlin with a continuing source of legitimacy and reinforce the impression that there was broad public consent behind the political system and the war. “Even though these elections are neither free nor fair, they are still the only source of legitimacy,” he said. In a televised address before the vote this week, Putin explicitly linked participation in the election to the war in Ukraine, presenting voting as a demonstration of unity in the face of outside pressure. “Your choice and your will will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our soldiers, that we are a united people bound together by shared values, historical memory and love for our homeland,” Putin said. Putin himself secured another six-year term in the 2024 presidential election, with genuine opposition barred from the ballot, extending his rule until at least 2030. For many Russians, however, the election’s greater significance lies not in the result, but in what follows. With Moscow’s troops making little progress at high cost in Ukraine, rumours of another large-scale mobilisation have spread across the country. The fear is that once the election is safely out of the way and a compliant new Duma is installed, the Kremlin will have greater freedom to pursue unpopular measures it has so far avoided. The anxiety has already prompted some young men to leave the country, hoping to wait out any new mobilisation – scenes that carry echoes of September 2022, when hundreds of thousands of Russians fled after Putin announced the first wartime draft. The person close to the Kremlin said several friends had sent their sons abroad in recent weeks, a sign, he said, that even among those with access to the system, few are certain what will happen after the voting. Putin has sought to calm those fears. In recent weeks, he has twice dismissed suggestions that a new mobilisation is imminent. But those reassurances have not been enough for some men, including Dmitry, who flew to Yerevan, Armenia last week. “I’ll just wait a few weeks after the elections,” he said, adding that he felt the risk of a new mobilisation was too high to ignore. “Let’s see if anything changes after the vote.”

Ukraine war briefing: Poland’s Tusk heads to Kyiv after warning of Russian strikes on Ukrainian allies

Russia is planning hybrid strikes with drones or rockets on European countries supporting Ukraine, among them Poland according to its prime minister, Donald Tusk. Russia will pretend the attacks are “accidental” in order to “paralyse or at least weaken the motivation of Nato countries” to rush to the defence of the member state coming under attack, Tusk said in a speech to the Polish parliament. “There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction,” Tusk said, vowing that “if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies”. Tusk announced he would travel to Ukraine overnight, arriving on Friday, in what might be seen as an act of defiance against Russia after European leaders were in transit during a drone strike on a train near the Polish-Ukrainian border on Sunday. Officials usually keep their travel plans to Ukraine secret for security reasons. In Kyiv, he said he would discuss with Volodymyr Zelenskyy how to defend against the new types of drones, as well as discuss with partners including Slovakia further sanctions against Russia. The Slovak ⁠prime minister, Robert Fico, ‌also said ‌he would be in Kyiv as he claimed Europe is closer ⁠than ever to a large-scale ⁠war erupting ⁠from the war in Ukraine ⁠and politicians must strive for peace. Fico has ‌kept warm relations with Russia while criticising EU and Nato aid to Ukraine, though Slovakia’s arms industry is simultaneously a producer of artillery shells supplied to Kyiv’s forces. On Friday ⁠the European Union will ⁠disburse €3.3bn to ‌Ukraine to buy missiles and drones, Ursula von ⁠der ⁠Leyen, the European Commission president, has announced. Tusk said Russia was not ready for any peace talks “without the total capitulation of Ukraine”. “They are convinced the winter will be tragically critical for Ukraine.” He said last winter Poland stepped in with deliveries when Ukraine’s energy infrastructure came under attack, but if border crossings are destroyed it will be much harder for Warsaw to offer such help this winter. “Russia’s goal is to destroy as much as possible the economy and logistics of Ukraine,” Tusk said, adding that intelligence indicates continuous attacks of “very high frequency and intensity” on six main Ukrainian cities should be expected in the near future. A drone hit a petrol station near Ukraine’s border with Poland on Thursday, Tusk said separately at a press conference in Warsaw. A spokesperson for the Polish military told TVN24 that air defences were activated on Thursday after a jet-powered drone approached Polish airspace before exploding about 4km (2.5 miles) from the Polish border. Poland’s Lublin and Rzeszow ‌airports temporarily suspended operations on Thursday as the air force responded to Russian drone activity, Polish authorities said. Russian missiles and drones injured at least 19 people in Ukraine’s capital and the surrounding region, authorities said on Thursday. Kyiv’s military administration said more than 10 locations were hit, while 33 sites were damaged in the wider region. A 10-year-old girl and a 12-year-old boy were among the injured, the administration said. Ukraine’s air force said it destroyed or suppressed 131 Russian aerial targets during the overnight attack in the Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa regions. The attack involved ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones and decoys. In Odesa, seven people were injured, including two children, according to Ukraine’s state emergency Service. Apartments on the 14th through 16th floors of a residential building were damaged. A private residential building in Odesa was also destroyed and others damaged. Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Yaroslavl and a military airfield in the Rostov region, Zelenskyy said on Thursday. Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s operation against the Yaroslavl oil refinery was conducted jointly by the country’s Security Service, special operations forces, military intelligence and the foreign intelligence service. The security service also struck a military airfield in Rostov, damaging an An-12 aircraft, two An-26s and three helicopters. Reuters said that according to its industry sources, the refinery halted crude processing after the Ukrainian ⁠attack. The local Russian governor confirmed the damage. A Russian drone struck a civilian vessel flying the flag of Tanzania in the Black Sea on Thursday, killing the ship’s captain and injuring three crew members, according to Oleh Kiper, the regional head in Odesa. Russia damaged the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi bridge in the Odesa region, ⁠significantly limiting Ukraine’s ability to transport grain to its Danube river ports, Ukrainian state railway ⁠operator Ukrzaliznytsia ⁠said on Thursday. According to Ukrzaliznytsia, about 3,000 grain wagons ‌are bound for the Danube ports. Without the bridge, they would need 26 days to reach the ports. “The situation is very difficult. We are working to restore the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi bridge,” a company official said.

Trump administration again denies entry visas to Palestinian officials ahead of UN general assembly

The US state department said on Wednesday that it had again denied entry visas to Palestinian officials ahead next week’s United Nations general assembly gathering in New York. The state department said in a statement the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) had “failed to live up to their commitments”, accusing the groups of “taking actions to internationalize the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict including through the International Criminal Court (ICC) and International Court of Justice (ICJ)” and of “glorifying terrorism” among other allegations. “As a consequence of their failure to reform, contrary to their commitments to the United States, and their ongoing activities that undermine the prospects for peace, the United States will extend sanctions that deny visas to PLO members and PA officials,” the department said. The move marks the second year in a row the Trump administration has barred the Palestinian delegation from traveling to New York to attend the UN general assembly in person. The foreign ministry of the Palestinian Authority denied the allegations made against it in a statement on Thursday, describing the visa sanctions as an “unjustified measure” that “contradicts the efforts being made to restore trust, develop Palestinian-US relations, and prepare the necessary political climate for implementing the two-state solution and achieving peace and stability in the region”. Among the Palestinian officials barred from entering the US is Mahmoud Abbas, the longtime president of the Palestinian Authority, according to reports. The UN general assembly voted on Thursday to allow Abbas to address the gathering via ⁠video, for the second year in a row. This year’s UN general assembly general debate begins on 22 September.

Nato head: Britain must show ‘credible path’ of annual defence budget increases

Britain needs to show “a credible path” of annual increases in its defence budgets to meet a Nato target of spending nearly £30bn more on the military by the middle of the next decade, the head of the alliance said on Thursday. Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary general, said that Britain could not wait until just before 2035 to lift defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, in an unusually pointed intervention a day after he met prime minister Andy Burnham. In an interview with the Press Association, he said: “And that is why you need a credible path towards that 3.5%, and yearly increments.” The alliance’s secretary general, a former Dutch prime minister, made similar remarks to the BBC, where he said that the UK understood that the target could not be met “in one go in 2034” and that it would have to be achieved gradually. Earlier on Thursday, Rutte met with Wes Streeting, the defence secretary, and Ed Miliband, the foreign secretary. He saw Burnham on Wednesday, at a business park in Didcot, and also met representatives from the defence industry. Keir Starmer signed the UK up to a Nato-wide target of increasing defence spending to 3.5% of GDP in the summer of 2025, under pressure from the US president, Donald Trump. The figure has since been endorsed by Burnham and his chancellor, former defence secretary John Healey. Current spending plans, covering until 2028/9, show defence spending levelling off at 2.7%, nearly £30bn below the ultimate target, raising the question of how it would be achieved after the next general election. It is unclear if taxes or borrowing would have to rise, or other government spending cuts. Healey resigned as defence minister in June because Starmer would not commit to lifting defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030. At the time Healey said Labour needed to set “a clear path” to meet the Nato commitment, similar language to that used by Rutte in his interviews. But since then Healey and Burnham have avoided committing to the 3% by the end of the decade. Decisions on future spending are likely to be left to the next government spending review due next year, prompting the Nato leader to engage in public lobbying on his trip to Britain. Rutte said he was certain the Burnham government remained behind the ultimate goal and the need to increase defence spending gradually. “I am absolutely confident that when it comes to the yearly increments, they totally take it and accept it, that they have to be there,” he told the BBC. “There has to be a credible path. What that credible path exactly will be, we will see with the spending review next year,” Rutte added. A day earlier, Rutte gave a speech to at Ditchley Park in Oxfordshire, in which he warned that the 32 country military alliance faced “the most dangerous and complex security environment in a generation” with wars in Ukraine, the Middle East coming at time of rising state competition. Nato needed “more UK and more Europe”, he added, to take up the slack as the US reduces its military commitment to the alliance. Trump has long argued that the UK and Europe should match US levels of defence spending and take the lead in defending the continent from Russia aggression.

Poland warns Russia planning ‘hybrid strikes’ against countries supporting Ukraine – as it happened

And, on that note, we will be closing the blog for today. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has said that intelligence assessments show Russian “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland” over the winter (17:23), with “provocations ... far more dangerous that those we have faced so far” (17:33). Tusk said the coming autumn and winter is likely to be “the most critical moment” in Russia’s full-scale aggression on Ukraine (17:20) as he warned Russia will also try to test Nato’s resolve in defending its eastern flank (17:28). Polish PM earlier warned that “if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies,” as he responded to growing aggression from Russia (17:15). Earlier today, Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson has resigned from his post, as final results of the Swedish parliamentary election confirmed his four-party coalition will not have a majority in the new parliament (13:57). The former prime minister and left-leaning bloc leader, Magdalena Andersson, welcomed the result, vowing to lead the country “in a new direction” (15:33). However, Kristersson and his allies cast doubt on whether the left-leaning bloc of four parties will be able to build a stable coalition to form the next government (14:10, 14:24, 16:00). Elsewhere, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has called for closer ties between Canada and the EU on trade, energy, “pooled” sovereignty, mobility in a warmly received speech at the European parliament in Strasbourg (12:22). He welcomed the EU’s suggestion of an “associate membership” for Canada, but said “what matters is the substance” as he set out a number of key areas of focus for further talks with the EU Carney also rejected Trump’s criticism of the plans, saying “no one is going to dictate our culture or with thom we can strike agreements internationally”. If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.

All smiles in Strasbourg but uncertainty clouds Canada’s EU membership plan

Mark Carney received a rapturous reception in the European parliament when he gave his speech on Thursday welcoming a proposal for Canada to become the EU’s first-ever associate member. Politicians queued to shake his hand and take selfies. One described the speech as a historic moment. “Europe has extended a hand, and Canada has taken it,” said the German Green MEP Terry Reintke, who borrowed a Canadian ice hockey shirt for the occasion. One day earlier, in the same debating chamber, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, issued the unprecedented invitation to Canada – an idea quickly derided by Donald Trump, who threatened Europe with “heavy tariffs” if it became a reality. But the prospect of Canada’s associate membership is uncertain, not least because no one is sure what it means. “I’m not quite sure why she [von der Leyen] used that term because there’s simply no legal definition,” said one senior politician. “This has just raised lots of questions. So people are talking more about what an associate membership means instead of … this unique partnership and alliance for the future that EU-Canada relations should be about.” The German chancellor Friedrich Merz’s spokesperson welcomed the initiative for a close partnership with Canada and said Germany was “open to discussing new models that reflect the special significance of the relationship”, but called for the associate membership label to be “reconsidered”. Merz himself has floated “associate membership” for Ukraine, as a stepping stone to joining the bloc, but this was quickly dismissed by other member states. One EU diplomat said von der Leyen “seemed a bit far out in floating this” and that even before Wednesday’s speech member states had worried that she was overpromising on Canada. A second diplomat said it was “an empty phrase” and it would be up to member states to define the substance. Any new trading and cooperation relationship with a foreign country would need to be approved by the EU’s 27 member states. There is a lot of common ground: both sides want to deepen cooperation on AI, energy security, critical raw materials, quantum computing and work together in the Arctic – Carney noted that Canada shared an Arctic border with Denmark, referring to the maritime border with Greenland. But difficulties went unspoken. Carney described the 2016 EU-Canada comprehensive economic and trade agreement as “one of the world’s most successful trade agreements”, but 10 EU member states have yet to ratify it, including France, Italy and Poland. With all three countries heading into an election year, that looks unlikely to change. While both sides extol the virtues of deeper trade between allies, they are also pursuing policies that appear to contradict that goal. Last year Canada introduced a buy Canadian policy, to ensure Canadian suppliers get priority in public contracts. The EU is debating its own buy European law, known formally as the Industrial Accelerator Act. The IAA, now being debated in the EU, would oblige member states to meet “made in Europe” content requirements when spending public money on green technologies and electric cars. Associate membership also raises questions about integration into the EU’s tightly guarded single market. Carney proposed “seamless digital trade in non-agricultural goods and a wide range of services”. But the EU has long insisted that the four freedoms of its internal market – free movement of goods, services, labour and capital – are one package that cannot be split and require alignment with EU rules. Now the applause has died down, there are plenty of tricky issues to work out, even for the closest of allies.