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Middle East crisis live: Israel urges evacuation in south Lebanon ahead of attack; strikes on US embassy in Iraq

Authorities say more than one million people in Lebanon have been forced to flee their homes since Israel began bombing the country on 2 March after Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, launched rockets on Israel in reaction to the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in joint US-Israeli airstrikes. This mass civilian displacement has been caused by “relentless Israeli bombings and blanket evacuation orders that are not sparing anyone”, according to Medical charity Medicine Sans Frontières, which says people are being systematically forced from their villages. “We are seeing a similarity to what we saw in the past two and a half years in Gaza: broad evacuation orders, constant displacement of thousands of families, and systematic bombing on densely populated areas,” says Cormack. “After 15 months of a fragile ceasefire that failed to stop the violence in Lebanon, families are once again trapped between fleeing or facing bombs.” Hundreds of schools and public buildings have been converted into emergency shelters as Israeli attacks continue across the country, including on residential neighbourhoods. Many people are being forced to sleep in makeshift tents or on the streets as shelters become overwhelmed. Israel’s military said yesterday that its troops had begun a ground assault in new areas of southern Lebanon, fuelling concerns that the war will be a prolonged one. Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, warned displaced Lebanese people forced from their homes would not be allowed to return until the safety of Israelis near the border was guaranteed. At least 886 people, including 111 children, have been killed in Israeli attacks in Lebanon since 2 March, according to Lebanese authorities.

Tuesday briefing: How the conflict in Iran shattered the Gulf state image of peace and luxury

Morning everyone, I’m Patrick Greenfield – you may recognise the name from my environment reporting over the years (or perhaps you read my piece about the possible rebirth of a long-extinct 12ft bird). I’ll be joining you on First Edition for the next few months, where I will inevitably be turning my attention to some rather more worrisome news than the Jurassic Park-adjacent ambitions of a US startup. On that note: no Gulf state wanted war with Iran. But, as fighting in the Middle East enters its third week, the region finds itself on the frontline of an increasingly intractable conflict. After the US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February, drones and missiles have showered the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia – bringing the region’s oil and gas industries to a near standstill, and prompting an exodus of tourists and expats. The metropolis of Dubai, less than 100 miles from Iran, has settled into a strange rhythm amid the conflict: with fighter jets in the sky and water skis below, while luxury hotels have become surprising targets for Iranian projectiles. It all raises the question of how parts of the Gulf will be able to maintain the image of quiet luxury and peace – and to what extent that image has been a mirage. For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Hannah Ellis Peterson, the Guardian’s south Asia correspondent, who is covering the war from Dubai. But first, the headlines. Five big stories UK news | Keir Starmer has said the UK will not be drawn into the wider war in the Middle East, after Donald Trump called for allies to send warships to the strait of Hormuz to help unblock global oil supplies from the region. Starmer also announced that households reliant on heating oil to warm their homes would receive £53m of government support to help with their bills. Health | A sixth-form student at Queen Elizabeth’s grammar school in Faversham has been confirmed as the second person to have died after an outbreak of meningitis in Kent. Environment | Realtime pollution alerts are urgently needed across Windermere, campaigners have said, as the mother of a seven-year-old boy who kayaked on the lake described how he nearly died after contracting a dangerous strain of E coli from contaminated water. Media | The BBC has asked a US court to throw out Donald Trump’s $10bn (£7.5bn) lawsuit over the way a documentary edited one of his speeches, warning that proceeding with the case would have a “chilling effect” on its reporting on the president. Energy | Belgium’s prime minister, Bart De Wever, has been criticised for calling for the normalisation of relations with Russia to re-establish cheap energy supplies. In depth: ‘The UAE never expected to be on the frontline of this war’ In the days after the conflict began, there was a rush to leave the city after a wave of Iranian attacks. Dubai’s pet shelters became overwhelmed with dogs and cats left behind by expats, while those that remain have been caught up in a crackdown from authorities for sharing videos of the conflict. A 60-year-old British man was among 20 people charged in connection with filming and posting material related to Iranian attacks, alleged to have broken the UAE’s strict cybercrime laws that prohibits sharing material that could disturb public security. Tehran, meanwhile, continues to insist that it is not targeting the UAE. “That is clearly ridiculous”, Hannah Ellis Peterson tells me. “The UAE never expected to be on the frontline of this war – particularly Dubai, a place that has worked very hard to build itself up as a safe haven of tourism. Like other Gulf states, the UAE was pushing very hard for this war not to happen. I don’t think they thought they would be the ones that Iran would hit as hard as they have,” Hannah says. *** The longer the conflict extends, the worse things will be It’s not just the mirage of quiet luxury that’s been perforated by drone strikes. Over decades, Gulf states have built strong security alliances with the US, hosting a network of military bases across the Persian gulf that house roughly 40,000 American troops. In Qatar, a state that has perhaps gone further than any other to cozy up to president Trump by handing his administration a $200m jet that could become the new Air Force One, all liquefied natural gas production remains suspended. The strait of Hormuz, a crucial bottleneck through which the Gulf’s oil, gas and fertiliser must pass to reach markets in the rest of the world, remains almost entirely impassible for fear of Iranian attack. As Gulf states spend billions intercepting Iranian missiles and drones, there are growing questions about wisdom of the partnerships that have made them targets for Iranian attacks – and thrown their countries into crisis. With many Gulf countries reliant on the export of oil, they also find themselves bleeding cash at a very expensive time. “They can sustain it for another week or two. But the worst case scenario is that it keeps dragging on,” says Hannah. The longer the conflict extends, the more questions will arise about relations between the gulf states and Iran once it ends. “In the longer term, the Iranian regime remaining in place is part of the worst case scenario: weakened, angry, volatile – it would be a far more difficult country for Gulf states to deal with than before this war,” says Hannah. *** Hard questions The fighting has also raised hard questions for the region about its security partnerships with America and the clear danger that hosting a US base can bring. Gulf states need the protection of a superpower like the US and cannot afford to publicly criticise them, says Hannah, pointing out that many will soon need more weapons from the US to defend themselves. “There is no alternative for these countries in terms of a replacement big super power defender. They are small states with hostile enemies around them,” she says. And yet, the widening conflict is starting to show the cracks in the armour of this arrangement. “The idea is that if they have these US bases, the US will come to the defence of Gulf states if they are attacked by Iran or anyone else. But that is increasingly coming into question. Look at Qatar. It was bombed by Israel in September, actually attacked by a hostile state. Similarly, Saudi has come under attack. America has done nothing. So, the idea that these bases operated as a form of protection for Gulf states is increasingly becoming undermined,” she says. *** A safe haven, disrupted In the midst all of this, Hannah warns that media coverage has depicted a one dimensional image of the type of people affected across the UAE. The initial flurry of coverage focusing on influencers leaving Dubai has given a distorted image of those who call the city home, says Hannah. Hundreds of thousands of migrant workers from India and Nepal cannot leave, regardless of what happens with the fighting, as they cannot afford tickets home or often have coercive work contracts. Dubai has also become home for refugees from Syria and Afghanistan that were not welcome in the West. “Lots of rich people come to have a nice life and not pay any taxes and make lots of videos about it, but they are not the only people that live in Dubai,” she says. “The city is also seen as a safe haven for those driven from other places in the Middle East – this conflict is not going to send them away.” What else we’ve been reading For a few blissful minutes, Diane Taylor’s piece about the Dorset community that rallied around asylum seekers living on the Bibby Stockholm barge, restored my faith in humanity. Lucinda Everett, newsletters team Rich Pelley writes expertly about how developments in the world of gaming have sparked new fears over lab-grown humans, driven by US scientists uploading a copy of the brain of a living fly into a simulation. Patrick Ashifa Kassam writes about a brilliantly absurdist video, released by the Norwegian Consumer Council as part of a global campaign to fight back against the “enshittification”, or gradual deterioration, of digital products and services. Lucinda Finally, as a whale-lover, I was moved by the oldest known recording of a humpback whale. It was made in 1949. Take a listen for yourself and read about how scientists are using it. Patrick Gwilym Mumford is on typically entertaining form as he unpacks how Timothée Chalamet blew his chance at an Oscar with a campaign that led some to feel he was “more like his smirking, fame-hungry character than they first imagined”. Lucinda Sport Football | Brentford took a 2-0 first-half lead but Adam Armstrong and Tolu Arokodare led Wolves’ fightback to earn a 2-2 draw. Football | Chelsea have been handed a record £10.75m fine, given a suspended ban from signing first-team players and an immediate nine-month academy transfer ban by the Premier League over breaches of financial rules during Roman Abramovich’s ownership, however they avoided a points deduction for their offences. Formula One | Toto Wolff has dismissed criticism of the new Formula One regulations from Max Verstappen as a result of the “horror show” Red Bull car the four-time champion is having to drive. “From an entertainment perspective, I believe what we’ve seen between Ferrari and Mercedes was good racing, many overtakes,” said Wolff, whose Mercedes team have secured first and second in the first two races of the season. The front pages “PM vows UK will resist US pressure to join Iran war,” is the splash on the Guardian today. “Trump turns fire back on Starmer,” says the Times. “UK in talks on Royal Navy role in Gulf to end oil blockade,” says the i. “Donald’s Trumped,” quips the Metro. “Rayner charm offensive seeks to lay investor worries to rest,” has the FT. “Race to stop meningitis spreading nationwide,” says the Telegraph. “Thousands told: Get help now for meningitis risk,” is the lead story at the Mail. “Terror on Campus,” has the Mirror. “Vapes ‘spread killer bug’” has the Sun. “We are beyond devastated,” says the Star. Finally the Express with: “Stop ‘pointing the finger at Brexit’ and fix economy.” Today in Focus Will the strait of Hormuz torpedo Trump’s war? The strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water at the mouth of the Gulf, is the world’s petrol pump, a geographical bottleneck through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows. With war in Iran, events in the narrow waterway are causing chaos around the globe. Jillian Ambrose explains why. Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad In 2011, Mel Bradman was “living in a state of high anxiety” thanks to stresses at work and in her personal life. “My regular coping tools […] weren’t helping,” she says. Then her therapist suggested she ban herself from worrying from 6.30pm every evening until the following morning. Initially, Mel only managed to avoid her worries until 8pm but eventually she extended ‘No Worry Time’ until the next morning, and something clicked. “I was feeling lighter, no longer bobbing up and down in a sea of anxiety,” she says. 18 months later she felt ready to leave therapy. “Last year, I saw a sign in a bar that read ‘No worry zone,” says Mel. “I loved it. It was a reminder that […] you don’t have to be held hostage by anxiety.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Afghanistan says 400 killed in strike by Pakistan on Kabul hospital

Hundreds were feared dead after a strike on a hospital treating drug users in the Afghan capital of Kabul, which officials from Afghanistan blamed on the Pakistani military. Afghanistan’s deputy government spokesperson Hamdullah Fitrat said the death toll had “so far” reached 400 people, while about 250 people had been reported injured. He said most of those killed and wounded were patients undergoing treatment at the facility. Pakistan rejected the claim as false and misleading and said it “precisely targeted military installations and terrorist support infrastructure” on Monday night, dismissing allegations it had hit a civilian target. Sharafat Zaman, the Taliban’s health ministry spokesperson, said there were about 3,000 patients in the state-run Omid hospital at the time of the strike. Local television stations posted footage of firefighters struggling to extinguish flames among the ruins of a building. “The whole place caught fire. It was like doomsday,” said Ahmad, 50, a security guard at the hospital. Of the 25 people staying in the hospital’s staff dormitory, he was the only one to survive. The strikes were reported to begin around 9pm on Monday night. Omid Stanikzai, 31, a security guard at the drug treatment centre, told AFP the assault began with the firing of anti-aircraft guns. “There were military units all around us,” he said. “When these military units fired on the jet, the jet dropped bombs and a fire broke out.” Witnesses reported severe damage to the building, with sections collapsing after the strike. On Tuesday morning, only blackened walls and piles of debris remained while rescue teams searched the rubble for survivors. Ambulance driver Haji Fahim said he had arrived at the hospital to find “everything was burning, people were burning”. “Early in the morning they called me again and told me to come back because there are still bodies under the rubble,” he told Reuters. “We were inside the wards when the explosion happened,” said Yousaf Rahim, a patient. “My bed was in the corner, and I suffered injuries to my leg and thigh. It was a horrific scene. Patients fell from their beds, screaming and running as fire and smoke filled the wards and rooms. “Thick smoke and dust spread throughout the hospital,” he added. “Many people lay on the ground. Dozens died instantly, and the critically injured were pleading for help. I didn’t know what to do. I stepped over bodies and managed to escape outside.” Dejan Panic, Afghan director of the Italian NGO Emergency, said it had received three bodies after the strike on Monday night and was treating 27 wounded. The UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, Richard Bennett, said he was “dismayed” by reports of the air strikes and civilian casualties. “I urge parties to de-escalate, exercise maximum restraint and respect international law, including the protection of civilians and civilian objects such as hospitals.” The alleged attack came hours after Afghan officials said the two sides had exchanged fire along their common border, killing four people in Afghanistan, as deadly fighting between the neighbouring countries continued to worsen. This is the third time that Pakistan has targeted Kabul with missile strikes in recent weeks. In a post on X, Pakistan’s ministry of information said Monday night’s strikes “precisely targeted military installations and terrorist support infrastructure including technical equipment storage and ammunition storage of Afghan Taliban” as well as Afghanistan-based Pakistani militants in Kabul. “This misreporting of facts as drug rehabilitation facility seeks to stir sentiments, covering illegitimate support to cross-border terrorism,” they added. Islamabad has described the situation with Afghanistan as an “open war”. The fighting began in late February after Afghanistan launched cross-border attacks in response to Pakistani airstrikes inside Afghanistan. The clashes disrupted a ceasefire brokered by Qatar in October. The conflict is the worst to break out between the former allies. Relations began to fray over the Afghan Taliban’s alleged role in giving a safe haven and sponsorship to radical militants, particularly the Pakistan Taliban, that have been responsible for a surge in deadly terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Afghanistan’s Taliban government have denied any involvement in cross-border terrorism in Pakistan. China has attempted to play a mediating role in the conflict. Last week, they dispatched a special envoy to the region to try to ease tensions and bring the two parties back to the negotiating table, but without success. The deadly fighting also continued along the volatile border areas. Afghan officials said four people, including two children, were killed and 10 other people were wounded in south-eastern Afghanistan in an exchange of fire on Monday. On Sunday, Pakistan said a mortar fired from Afghanistan hit a house in north-western Bajaur district, killing four members of a family and wounding two others, including a five-year-old. Haroon Janjua and agencies contributed additional reporting

‘We are the family’: low-budget thriller highlights Hungary’s election tension

It’s seven o’clock on a Tuesday night, and one of the most popular movie theatres in Budapest is full, not an empty seat in sight. The audience is not here for a Hollywood blockbuster, but a Hungarian film that barely had the budget to be made. Feels Like Home (Itt Érzem Magam Otthon) has captured moviegoers not only with its striking visuals but also with its timing – its release coming before Hungary’s pivotal parliamentary elections on 12 April. The psychological thriller tells the story of a saleswoman who is abducted into a family that follows the orders of an authoritarian father-figure, Papa, and whose members get privileges if they play by the rules. The main character, Rita, tries to escape, but finds that even outside everything seems to be owned by the family, so there is no point in asking for help. The director, Gábor Holtai, says it was not his intention to create a metaphor for life in Hungary under Viktor Orbán, but that is certainly how it has been interpreted in the fevered final weeks of the election campaign. According to critics, the rightwing prime minister has used the last 16 years to capture independent institutions, dismantle democracy and enrich his family and loyalists. But he is facing an unprecedented challenge from someone who emerged from his circle and turned against him: Péter Magyar, leader of the newly founded Tisza party. At the showing in Buda, Bea and almost all her friends are wearing Tisza’s logo on their T-shirts. They see direct parallels between Hungary’s political leadership and characters in the movie. Bea, a 52-year-old sales assistant, said: “I was in shock at first. Because of the brutality portrayed in the film. That they keep intimidating someone until they do what they are told, until they are broken. After I went home, I understood that we are the ones shaping our fate: we are the other members of the family.” Holtai says this take does not surprise him: “It’s a completely natural association on the part of Hungarian viewers. We didn’t write the film with this intent but, of course, we expected the associations given the current political climate in Hungary.” Hungarians are not the only ones to see a political message in the film, added Holtai. “It was interesting to see that when we showed this movie in countries where a dictatorial regime was part of their history, audiences immediately started to wonder about how the past is reflected in their present, and to what extent it is still present in their lives today.” Feels Like Home did not receive any state funding and had a minimal PR budget. The actors shared the dates of the premiere on their social media accounts and the film has become a word-of-mouth success. Many members of the cast are outspoken about their criticism of Orbán, perhaps solidifying the film’s political subtext to audiences. The actor who plays Rita’s abductor, Áron Molnár, is known for his sharp criticism of the Orbán government in satirical short videos on Instagram. He pokes fun not only at politicians but the influencers who repeat Orbán’s narrative. Molnár had a heated public exchange with a senior figure in the prime minister’s populist party after his comments on Hungary’s dependence on Russian energy sparked her anger. Alexandra Szentkirályi, president of Fidesz in Budapest, posted on Facebook: “You’re not a good enough actor to play an energy lawyer with absolutely no knowledge of the subject. How can you sink so low in your hatred for your own country and people?” Gellért Kovács, an independent film critic and writer for the Hungarian magazine NLC, said there were several reasons for the success of Feels Like Home: “First of all, this is a great movie, and compared to other Hungarian films, it’s rare to find one that meets the Hollywood standards people expect from a psychological thriller. And it is an allegory of the ever-present situation in Hungary. It highlights certain archetypes through its characters.” The film industry has felt the effect of Orbán’s government. It controls the National Film Institute (NFI), a body that mainly funds movies that align with Fidesz ideology. Kovács said a new type of film had emerged over the past three or four years “born of necessity, pain and despair” and created without state film subsidies. He added: “It holds up a mirror to the film industry distributed by the NFI. These films are capable of generating a greater impact than those made with budgets of many billions.” At the cinema in Buda, Róbert, was back for a second viewing in a week. “This is a movie that makes you think for days. It really stays with you,” said the 73-year-old retail company worker. He said he was frustrated by the political climate in Hungary: “Because they managed to divide this country; it’s a curious situation. We’ll see what happens.”

‘Trump is aiming for dictatorship’. That’s the verdict of the world’s most credible democracy watchdog | Martin Gelin

The US is no longer a democracy. One of the most credible global sources on the health of democratic nations now says this outright. The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute at Gothenburg University reaches the alarming conclusion in its annual report, that the US is hurtling towards autocracy at a faster rate than Hungary and Turkey. “Our data on the USA goes back to 1789. What we’re seeing now is the most severe magnitude of democratic backsliding ever in the country,” says Staffan Lindberg, founder of the institute. Since 2012, Lindberg has led his small group of researchers in Sweden to become the world’s leading source for analysis of the health of global democracy. In their latest report, published on Tuesday, they conclude that the US, for the first time in more than half a century, has lost its long-term status as a liberal democracy. The country is now going through a rapid process of what the report’s authors call “autocratisation”. “For Orbán in Hungary, it took about four years, for Vučić in Serbia, it took eight years, and for Erdoğan in Turkey and Modi in India, it took about 10 years to accomplish the suppression of democratic institutions that Trump has achieved in only one year,” Lindberg says. US democracy is now back at the worst recorded level since 1965, when US civil rights laws first introduced de facto universal suffrage. All progress made since then has been erased, according to the report. Worldwide, democracy has receded to its lowest levels since the mid-70s. “The world has never before seen as many countries autocratising at the same time,” Lindberg says. A record 41% (3.4 billion) of the world’s population currently resides in countries where democracy is deteriorating, the report claims, adding that Washington is leading this global turn away from democracy. The researchers use 48 different metrics to assess democratic health, such as the freedom of expression and the media, the quality of elections and the observance of the rule of law. The resulting “liberal democracy index” shows that the speed with which US democracy is being dismantled is unprecedented in modern history. The main factor is a “rapid and aggressive concentration of powers in the presidency”, Lindberg says. Congress has been marginalised, jeopardising the “checks and balances” (judicial and legislative constraints on the executive) so crucial to US democracy. At the same time, civil rights have been rapidly declining and freedom of expression is now at its lowest level since the 1940s. “We’ve seen a very fast concentration of power in the executive wing. The legislative branch has practically abdicated its powers to the president. It no longer functions as a check on executive power,” Lindberg says. In Donald Trump’s first year as president, he signed 225 executive orders, whereas the Republican-controlled Congress passed only 49 new laws. “Most of Trump’s executive orders were significant. He shut down entire departments of the government, firing hundreds of thousands of employees. The bills passed by Congress were mostly insignificant modifications to existing laws. So, we no longer have a meaningful division between the legislative and executive branches,” Lindberg says. Meanwhile, the supreme court has also mostly abdicated power, and even when it does strike down Trump’s executive orders, he circumvents it, Lindberg tells me. He points out that there are more than 600 ongoing judicial procedures against the Trump administration in the courts. Another aspect of America’s rapidly deteriorating democracy, according to the report, is the removal of internal guardrails that protect the federal government from abuse of power. When I ask Lindberg how we should read the findings, his response is emphatic. “Trump has fired inspector generals and higher levels of civil servants across departments, and replaced them with loyalists. This is exactly what Orbán and Erdoğan did. They remove the constraints on power. It should be obvious by now that Trump is aiming for dictatorship.” So how did a small research institute in Gothenburg become such a credible source on the decline of democracy in Washington? When Lindberg, a soft-spoken political scientist, founded the V-Dem Institute in 2012, global democracy was near its historic peak. “Back then, we were all researching the process of democratisation, and we were frustrated that the metrics weren’t good enough, so we wanted to create a credible global index that was relevant for the whole community of democracy researchers,” he says. Five years later, when the institute published its first dataset of global democracy, its experts realised that things were rapidly going in the wrong direction. “Now, all of us researching democratisation have become researchers on autocratisation,” Lindberg says. At the time, their reports were criticised for “exaggerating” the risks to global democratic stability. “We were called alarmists. But now our warnings seem justified,” Lindberg says. The core group of a dozen researchers in Gothenburg works with 4,200 researchers in 180 countries, using what they claim to be the largest global dataset on democracy, with more than 32m data points for 202 countries and territories, spanning from 1789 to 2025. “We have universal standards, but also people on the ground to tell us what is actually going on. The reports are 100% scientific, research-driven, and our data is free from bias and state influence, from general punditry and political considerations.” V-Dem’s report, titled Unravelling the Democratic Era?, should be required reading for Europe, where seven EU member states – Hungary, Greece, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Italy and Romania – are “affected by autocratisation”, amid signs of governments using media censorship, curbs on freedom of expression and repression of civil society. Portugal and Bulgaria have joined the institute’s “watchlist”. The report identifies the UK as a “new autocratiser”, driven by “a substantial decline” in freedom of expression and the media. “In the UK, it began before Keir Starmer, with the Elections Act 2022, and the government expanding its power over electoral commissions,” Lindberg says. “The Policing Act 2022 decreased civil rights and free speech. The Online Safety Act 2023 was used to penalise online speech and lawsuits silencing journalists. The Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act 2023 increased demands on universities to monitor protests and police free speech. What’s worrying is that once the democratic backsliding begins, it’s often hard to stop.”. Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Estonia and Ireland top V-Dem’s global democracy index for 2025. The efforts of others, including Poland, are highlighted for attempting to “U-turn” away from autocracy. But only 18 countries across the world are democratising, a historic low. A single bright spot in the assessment of the US is that free and open elections are still being held, and the electoral system “remains stable for now”. But executive orders since Trump came to power point to new risks for the electoral system. Threats to bureaucrats and poll workers administering elections are already alarming, Lindberg says. “We’ve seen media reports that 40% of election/poll workers have quit since 2020. And Trump never accepted his defeat then. Why would he accept a defeat now? If we see a denial of the election results in 2026, then it’s a complete democratic breakdown.” A potential source of cautious optimism may be that Trump’s authoritarian turn is increasingly unpopular. His approval rating is now below 40%. Large numbers of Trump voters are deeply disappointed with the new war in Iran, and with steadily rising living costs. Many of the liberal states that have been Trump targets, such as Minnesota and California, have successfully fought back against threats to civil rights and local communities. “We’re also seeing more criticism from within the Maga movement,” Lindberg says. It would be naive, as the report warns, to think that European countries are immune to democratic decline, whatever happens in Washington. “It’s a global trend,” says Lindberg, “so it’s not just America that is driving this. Research clearly shows that the far right, once they gain power, have a high probability of dismantling democratic institutions.” In many countries across Europe, voters are now mobilising to elect their own versions of Trump, despite the administration’s open threats to the continent and its persistent support for extremist parties that undermine European stability. Establishment conservatives are following along, hoping against reason that things will somehow work out better this time than in previous eras of authoritarian rule. With stark numbers and crystal-clear language, the V-Dem report underscores the risks of this path. Martin Gelin is a journalist and author. He writes for the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter

UAE reopens airspace after Iran attack – as it happened

This blog is closing now but we’re continuing our live updates from the US-Israel war on Iran in a new live blog here, including a recap of the latest key developments. Thanks for reading.

Trump predicts US will have ‘honour of taking Cuba’ amid power blackout

Donald Trump expects to have “the honour of taking Cuba”, he declared, after a US-imposed oil blockade plunged the country into darkness under a total power blackout. The US president claimed on Monday that he could do “anything I want” with Cuba, amid US negotiations with Havana over the country’s future. “You know, all my life I’ve been hearing about the United States and Cuba. When will the United States do it?” Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. “I do believe I’ll be … having the honour of taking Cuba,” Trump added. “Whether I free it, take it – think I could do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth. They’re a very weakened nation right now.” Shortly after he spoke, the New York Times reported that US officials told Cuba to remove its president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, from power during recent talks, citing four unnamed sources familiar with the discussions. The US has sought to intensify pressure on Cuba, its longtime foe, since seizing the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro – Cuba’s most important foreign benefactor – in January. Trump cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba and threatened to put tariffs on any country that sold oil to Cuba, strangling its antiquated power grid. Toppling Díaz-Canel from power would take out a key figurehead, while leaving in place the repressive Communist regime which has run Cuba for almost seven decades. Cuba has traditionally rejected any interference in its internal affairs and has considered any proposals on that front to be a dealbreaker for any agreement. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state and son of Cuban immigrants, has long made it clear he wants regime change in Havana. Trump has also called for a “friendly takeover”, but recently told reporters: “It may not be a friendly takeover.” Since removing Maduro from power in January and joining Israel in attacking Iran, Trump has openly mused that Cuba would be “next”. Díaz-Canel, 65, who succeeded the late Fidel Castro and his brother Raúl Castro as president in 2018, said on Friday that he expected talks with the US to take place “under the principles of equality and respect for the political systems of both countries, sovereignty and self-determination”. with AFP and Reuters

Ukraine war briefing: Russia agrees to stop recruiting Kenyans in fight against Kyiv

Russia has agreed to stop recruiting Kenyan citizens to fight with its army in Ukraine, Kenya’s foreign minister said on Monday after talks with his Russian counterpart in Moscow. More than 1,780 citizens from 36 African countries are believed to be fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s estimates in February. Kenya’s intelligence services estimate more than 1,000 Kenyans have been sent to fight, according to a report seen by Agence France-Presse (AFP). “We have now agreed that Kenyans shall not be enlisted,” the Kenyan foreign minister, Musalia Mudavadi, told reporters, sitting alongside the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. Since ordering troops into Ukraine in 2022, Russia has been widely accused of recruiting people from other nationalities to fight alongside its army. Lavrov said Kenyan citizens had voluntarily signed contracts to fight alongside the Russian army. Kenyan long-distance runner Evans Kibet – captured by Ukraine and held as a prisoner of war – told AFP in an interview from the facility where he was detained that he had been tricked into signing an army contract after going to Russia for a sporting event. Keir Starmer, who will host Volodymyr Zelenskyy for talks on Tuesday, has warned the US-Israeli war on Iran cannot be allowed to become a “windfall for Putin”. Russia has received €6bn (£5bn) from selling its fossil fuels in the fortnight since the start of the war, data suggests. Zelenskyy’s visit will come on the day of the government deadline for the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich to pay proceeds from his sale of Chelsea FC to victims of the Ukraine war, writes Jessica Elgot. Zelenskyy will visit Madrid on Wednesday for talks with Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez. Belgium’s prime minister, Bart De Wever, has been criticised for calling for the normalisation of relations with Russia to re-establish cheap energy supplies, Jennifer Rankin reports. De Wever said Europe had to rearm “and at the same time we must normalise relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy. It is common sense. In private European leaders tell me I am right, but no one dares say it out loud.” Russia has taken control of 12 settlements in Ukraine in the first two weeks of March as part of advances along the frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine, according to Russian state-run news agencies, quoting top general Valery Gerasimov. Gerasimov said Russian forces were “actively moving towards Sloviansk,” a heavily defended town in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region long seen as one of Moscow’s major targets. Russian air defence units downed at least 67 Ukrainian drones headed for Moscow on Monday, according to data published by the city’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin. Sobyanin also said on Telegram that air defence units had shot down about 250 Ukrainian drones approaching Moscow over the previous two days. Drone debris crashed on to the historic Maidan square in central Kyiv early on Monday during a rare daytime Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital, AFP journalists reported. The Ukrainian air force described the rush hour barrage as an “unusual” attack of “various types of strike drones”. It added that its air defence units had downed 194 Russian drones out of 211 launched overnight and into Monday. Three people were killed in the attacks overnight, officials said – one in the Zaporizhzhia region and two more in the Dnipropetrovsk region. A damaged Russian gas tanker that has been drifting in the Mediterranean without a crew for almost two weeks has 700 tonnes of fuel on board, Russia’s foreign ministry said Monday. A series of explosions rocked the Arctic Metagaz on 3 March, causing serious damage to the vessel and forcing its crew to evacuate. Russia said the ship, sanctioned by the US and the EU for being part of Moscow’s “shadow fleet”, was attacked by Ukrainian sea drones. Ukraine has not commented.