Ashifa Kassam and I spoke with our colleague Martin Belam for the Guardian’s First Edition about some of our behind the scenes experiences covering the vote on the ground in Budapest. “It has been an extraordinary night in Budapest – one which resembled more a World Cup triumph than an election night. People do not normally dance in the streets over politics.”
Though Pope Leo said he has “no intention to debate” Donald Trump on Iran, he also said he plans on continuing to “speak out loudly against war”, Reuters reports. “I will continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote peace, promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states to look for just solutions to problems,” Leo told Reuters aboard a papal flight to Algiers for the pontiff’s first official trip to Africa. “Too many people are suffering in the world today,” he said. “Too many innocent people are being killed. And I think someone has to stand up and say there’s a better way.“
Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, is on the brink of securing a majority government, with his Liberal party poised to win at least two closely watched byelections and courting an “almost unprecedented” string of defections from rival parties. Carney’s ability to turn a strong minority into a narrow majority through electoral gains and floor crossing has strengthened his reputation as a pragmatic leader above the cut and thrust of partisan politics. But his efforts to bring in lawmakers from across the political spectrum has also sparked a fierce internal debate over the Liberals’ values and the risks of consolidating more power. On Monday evening, the results of three byelections are likely to give the Liberals command of parliament. Of the three races, two are in safe districts for the party and the third is expected to be fought on the narrowest of margins. The elections follow a string of floor crossings in recent months. Last week Marilyn Gladu, a Conservative, became the fourth Tory to abandon the party and join the Liberals. Lori Idlout, a Nunavut MP from the leftwing New Democratic party, has also joined Carney’s team. Meanwhile, the deputy leader of Ontario’s NDP will run as a Liberal in a byelection in Toronto, a seat she is expected to win easily. Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin, said: “Pulling people from such diverse political origins at a time when the prime minister is vulnerable while leading a minority parliament is almost unprecedented. At minimum, it’s really unique and worthy of real reflection. What the hell is going on?” Reid believes the disruptive force of Donald Trump continues to have an effect on Canada – both through his threats to annex the country and his multi-pronged attacks on Canada’s economy. This sustained and bitter fight with a longtime ally has led certain Canadian politicians distance themselves from partisanship and embrace a nationalist approach to the fight. “Trump gave rise to Carney and his unique talents,” Reid said. “Now, we’re watching another effect of Trump on our politics: a desire for stability. The perception is Carney is a wartime leader. And in so many respects, what we’re watching is the quietest assembly of a union government we’ve ever witnessed.” As with each of the floor crossings, Conservatives criticised the move and their former colleagues. “Mark Carney seizing a costly Liberal majority that voters denied him, and doing so through backroom deals,” the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, posted on social media, citing Gladu’s own words in January that “floor crossers should face voters in a byelection to give voters the final say”. “I couldn’t agree more,” he said. “She should do so.” The loss of a social conservative such as Gladu is a blow to Poilievre, who is facing mounting discontent within his party despite handily winning his recent leadership review. More Conservatives are rumoured to be considering a move to the Liberals. Reid sees all this as a serious threat to Poilievre. “If you had said to me two years ago that Pierre Poilievre is going to lose a federal election despite having a 25-point lead, lose his home riding that he’s held for years – and then he’s going to lose four members of parliament and surrender the parliamentary majority to his chief rival? Well, you’ve just described a political dead person,” he said. But Gladu’s decision to join the Liberals has provoked tension within the party over how big a tent they want to create – and the ideological costs of consolidating power. Gladu supported the “freedom convoy” during the coronavirus crisis and holds openly anti-abortion views that clash sharply with Liberal dogma. Under the former prime minister Justin Trudeau, Liberal candidates were required to be pro-choice when it came to abortion rights. Supriya Dwivedi, a columnist and former adviser to Justin Trudeau, posted on X: “Guys, maybe we should all re-read Values [Carney’s 2021 book]. It’s possible we all missed the part where Carney said we don’t need to actually have any.” Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Carney said Gladu was committed to voting with the government on issues surrounding a woman’s right to choose. “There’s no change in the Liberal party’s values, let’s be clear on that,” he said, adding that she wanted to join his party to help the country at a crucial time. “We are fortunate that [MPs have defected] because they bring expertise, they bring perspectives, they bring energy and they help us work together.” Gladu herself later said she had been consistent in a belief that “women need to have the right to choose”. She said: “I obviously have my long faith traditions, but I’m ready to support the rights of women in this country. I will vote with the government. I will protect the rights and freedoms of women to choose, for people to be who they are and love who they love.” Jordan Leichnitz, a former senior strategist with the leftwing New Democratic party, said questions over a possible clash in values within the Liberals made sense when they were viewed as a “pure power broker party”. She said: “Historically and currently, the ability to form and hold government is the primary thing that unites people on the Liberal benches. Ideology has always been secondary to that. But Carney is a compelling figure in this trade war with Trump and a lot of people want to be part of that fight.” Polling suggests that Carney has increased his lead over his political rivals since the federal election in April 2025 and that if he were to call a snap election, the Liberals would be on track for a historic parliamentary majority. But Leichnitz cautioned there were limits to attempting to fully capitalise on the party’s mounting success. “What’s the magic of Mark Carney? He’s not a politician. And the minute you call an election just to get a majority, you’ve lost that,” she said. “And he faces a similar risk with more floor crossers: when you start accepting people who clearly violate your party’s stated position on abortion, for example, then it starts to look a little bit like your values are flexible in pursuit of power – which is a political move. “The danger for the prime minister is that nakedly political moves risk his brand’s greatest strength.”
Tony Abbott has likened Viktor Orbán to “[Donald] Trump with brains” and labelled him Hungary’s “greatest modern leader”, as the future of his work for the ousted leader’s pet thinktank hangs in the balance. Orbán’s 16-year grip on power in Hungary has ended after the rightwing populist leader conceded his Fidesz party had lost to the opposition Tisza party led by Péter Magyar, which won at least 138 of the 199 seats in the country’s parliament. Abbott has been connected to the conservative Danube Institute as a senior visiting fellow since 2023, according to Australia’s foreign influence transparency scheme. Orbán’s ousting puts the future of pro-Fidesz thinktanks like the Danube Institute, which rely heavily on his former government’s funding, in doubt. Abbott, Australia’s 28th prime minister, praised Orbán on social media for making Budapest “something of a haven for conservative intellectuals”, saying he did not “expect the new government will want that to change”. “The economy has strengthened, the city of Budapest has been transformed, and Hungary’s family policies and determination to keep its culture have been studied around the world,” Abbott said. “[Orbán] and I differed on Ukraine but I thought he was dead right to defy the EU, on illegal immigration especially. Why should a sovereign nation be bullied by Brussels into policies that would jeopardise its future as a distinct people?” Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email Orbán’s 16 years in power in the central European country has been contentious for many foreign spectators. Orbán has battled with the European Council – which has suspended billions of euros in funding – over a wide range of policies including on justice, migration, LGBTQ+ rights and aid for Ukraine, which, along with sanctions against Russia, he has consistently blocked. Abbott’s affinity with Orbán’s command of Hungary predates 2023 when he first officially joined the Danube Institute as a visiting fellow. In 2019, Abbott praised the Fidesz leader and warned a conference in Europe about “military age” male immigrants “swarming” the continent. In a podcast interview this month with the Danube Institute, days before the election result became clear, Abbott again praised Orbán, saying he had “always thought of Viktor Orbán as, if you like, Trump with brains. Someone who is an absolute, passionate nationalist, but is a deep thinker who doesn’t just say the first thing that comes into his head. “Now that’s not to dismiss President Trump, who’s obviously a very significant, I think, a very significant president, but Viktor Orbán has, I think, been Hungary’s greatest modern leader,” he said. “He’s been a transformative prime minister. He has reminded the wider world that controlling immigration is not just about stopping illegal migrants. It’s also about limiting the numbers so that your country can keep its culture.” Abbott admitted Orbán’s controversial pronatalist policy to increase birthrates to make up for limiting migration had seen mixed success, but implored Australian conservatives to take note. “Given that our birthrate is declining fast, we are, at the moment, bringing in record numbers of migrants. Not all of them are contributing economically and socially quite as well as we would like,” he said. “And I would personally like to see much lower migration and far more Australian kids.” Guardian Australia contacted Abbott for a comment on the election outcome and his future at the Danube Institute but was referred to his social media statement.
Anthony Albanese has called for the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz and free navigation for all countries, as the new defence chief said Australian ships were ready and capable of assisting if such a decision were made. Hours after the US president, Donald Trump, said he would institute an American blockade of the strategic waterway from Tuesday morning, Australian time, Albanese urged Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations in Pakistan. “We want to see the strait of Hormuz opened and with freedom of navigation taking place, so obviously, the lack of a resolution in the negotiations that took place on the weekend were disappointing,” Albanese said. “We want to see de-escalation and we want to see those negotiations resumed.” Albanese spoke as he announced that V Adm Mark Hammond, now the chief of the Navy, will replace the current Australian defence force chief, David Johnston, in July. Hammond said Australian forces would be ready to contributing to an international effort to reopen the strait, if the government made a decision to assist. “The navy is ready as it ever has been,” he said, echoing comments from Johnston last week. He said of the navy’s 10 major combatant ships, eight were currently deployed. “They are fitted with one of the most advanced radars in the world … and some of the most advanced missile-engagement systems in the world. “Are they capable of performing the mission? As Johnson said last week, absolutely. The question of a contribution is one consideration by the Australian government, should they receive a request. And there’s been no such request.” Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email After negotiations in Pakistan – led by the US vice-president, JD Vance – failed to resolve the crisis, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian water treatment facilities, power plants and bridges if the regime in Tehran did not agree to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Trump instructed the US navy to begin “blockading any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the strait of Hormuz”. But Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded by declaring that if any warships approached the strait to enforce a blockade, the move would be treated as a breach of the ceasefire and prompt a strong response. It also insisted the strait remained under Iranian control. About 20% of global oil supplies usually go through the strait, now subject to Iranian drone strikes and undersea mines. Trump has name-checked Australia as among countries not assisting with the US war effort, even as he insisted no help was required. Later on Monday, the defence industry minister, Pat Conroy, said the government was not considering joining the US blockade, ruling out any offensive action by Australian troops in the war. “Our position is we’re not considering joining the blockade and no request has been received either,” he told ABC TV. Albanese stressed that the Australian government’s view was that the ceasefire should extend to Israel’s fighting with Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon. He expressed sympathy with members of the Lebanese diaspora in Australia. “I feel for grieving families who have lost innocent relatives and friends, wherever that occurs. “The conflict is having a greater impact in developing countries that require fuel for just the absolute essentials of life is having. It’s having an enormous impact, which is why we’ve called for, consistently, a de-escalation and a solution going forward.” Lebanon and Israel have agreed to hold their first meeting on Tuesday at the US state department, to discuss a possible ceasefire and broader peace talks. The energy minister, Chris Bowen, said 57 fuel shipments, including crude oil, jet fuel, diesel and petrol, were on their way to Australia, and that the government continued to make contingencies for supply without expecting the strait of Hormuz would be reopened. Albanese and the foreign minister, Penny Wong, will also visit Brunei and Malaysia this week to shore up fuel supply.
On a recent weekday evening, the doors of more than a dozen galleries and museums across Abidjan stayed open till midnight, several hours later than usual, as art enthusiasts went around town on a bus tour. It was the Night of the Galleries, designed for people to drop in after work and enjoy Abidjan art week to the fullest. The after-hours special showcase was first tested in January 2024 on the sidelines of the Africa Cup of Nations football tournament hosted and won by Côte d’Ivoire. The tradition continued this year during the art week’s third edition, which ran from last Tuesday to Sunday. Since its launch, Abidjan art week has diversified its locations to include different parts of the city, such as La Rotonde des Arts centre for contemporary arts in the high-rise administrative district of Plateau and the Adama Toungara Museum of Contemporary Cultures (MuCAT) in the working-class neighbourhood of Abobo. “It is about creating opportunities to encounter art beyond specific occasions, and fostering the idea of visiting not only to buy but to immerse oneself in the artist’s world,” said Marie-Hélène Banimbadio Tusiama, a spokesperson for the art week. After two civil wars throttled Côte d’Ivoire in the 2000s and 2010s, francophone west Africa’s economic capital has been staking a claim to be at the centre of the contemporary west African art scene alongside Dakar, the region’s default reference point for visual arts. In Abidjan, home to many immigrants from within and beyond Africa, a contingent of local art collectors is on the rise. Since 2022, MuCAT has hosted the Africa Foto Fair, and the Marché des Arts du Spectacle d’Abidjan – Abidjan’s answer to the Dakar Biennale – holds its 14th edition later this month. A nationwide graffiti festival was instituted two years ago, a symbolic U-turn in a country where graffiti art was previously associated with vandalism and artists ran the risk of being criminally prosecuted. Today, colourful murals line the outside walls of La Pyramide building and several posh hotels in the Plateau district. Organisers of the art week say they hope to see sustained growth of the local art scene and have a goal to scale it to new heights “independently of external approval”. In this edition, artists from Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mali were among those showing work across the city, and the number of participating galleries more than doubled. The event’s founder, Yacouba Konaté, who is also the director at La Rotonde des Arts, says it is intentional about inclusion of as many members of the public as possible, a nod to the perception that enjoying art is a strictly elite activity. “We want this event to become increasingly visible and accessible to a broad public,” he said. “One of the things we’re trying to do is really communicate, to tell people that Abidjan is a cultural city and that there is a visual arts scene in Côte d’Ivoire and this scene is alive.” This year, the week opened with a tribute to Simone Guirandou-N’Diaye, one of the earliest art historians in Côte d’Ivoire and a pioneer of the gallery spaces that gave the scene its first institutional roots. She and her daughter Gazelle now run Galerie LouiSimone Guirandou, one of this year’s participating venues. At MuCAT, the exhibition Murmures d’Archives offered a different register of quieter, more archival art. It was there that the week closed with an artists workshop and a DJ set. In upmarket Cocody, a solo exhibition mounted by the New York-based artist Ouattara Watts at Galerie Cécile Fakhoury, one of the city’s most prominent spaces, drew the Ivorian diaspora into conversation with the local scene. The artist said the work was inspired by seeing art as universal. “My vision is not tied to any particular country or continent; it transcends borders and everything that can be found on a map,” said Watts, who moved to New York in 1988 on the advice of his friend Jean-Michel Basquiat. “Whilst I use recognisable elements to make myself better understood, this is a project that goes far beyond that. It is the cosmos that I paint.”
Good morning. The people of Hungary are waking up in an unfamiliar political landscape – one in which Viktor Orbán, who has served as prime minister since 2010, is stepping aside after defeat to Péter Magyar, whose Tisza party has won an election likely to reshape the country’s ties with the EU, the US and Russia. Less than three hours after polls closed on Sunday, Orbán conceded defeat after what he described as a “painful but unambiguous” result. Magyar, who has pledged to repair Hungary’s strained relationship with the EU, crack down on corruption and channel funds towards long-neglected public services, said Tisza voters had rewritten Hungarian history and that “truth prevailed over lies”. For today’s newsletter I’ve been in touch overnight with the Guardian’s European community affairs correspondent Ashifa Kassam and Europe live blogger Jakub Krupa, both of whom have been reporting from Hungary, to find out what it has been like on the ground after a dramatic result. First, the headlines. Five big stories Middle East | Donald Trump has said the US will begin blockading the strait of Hormuz in an attempt to take control of the strategic waterway from Iran in the aftermath of failed peace negotiations. Carers | Thousands of unpaid carers will continue to be hit with hefty and potentially unfair benefit repayment demands, as a government initiative gets under way to fix welfare injustices that have drawn comparison to the Post Office scandal UK news | The Home Office is to announce the closure of 11 asylum hotels this week as part of its pledge to close all such facilities by the end of this parliament. Ireland | Police have cleared a blockade of central Dublin by farmers and hauliers who were protesting about fuel prices, signalling a possible end to six days of protests that have rocked Ireland. UK politics | Ministers are planning to reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote. In depth: ‘People do not normally dance in the streets over politics’ Jakub tells me that it has been an extraordinary night in Budapest – one which “resembled more a World Cup triumph than an election night”. He points out that people do not normally dance in the streets over politics. There were signs, he adds, that a Magyar victory might be on the cards. “There is something really special about elections, which is perhaps why I am so drawn to covering them,” he says. “As a reporter, you come from the outside, and yet immediately get entrusted with access to what is a very personal, vulnerable moment as the energy of a place or a nation changes.” That feeling, he says, was captured when he spoke to a man at a polling station in Budapest on Sunday. Asked why he was so confident about an opposition win, he half-jokingly replied: “vibes”. “Just that, ‘vibes’. And yet, we both knew exactly what he meant – and he was right.” *** Who is Péter Magyar, Hungary’s next prime minister? Magyar is a 45-year-old Hungarian lawyer and former government insider who rapidly emerged as a serious challenger to Orbán’s long rule. Once a member of Orbán’s Fidesz party – with close ties to senior figures and a former marriage to ex-justice minister Judit Varga – he has recast himself as an anti-establishment figure, channelling public anger over corruption, the cost of living and declining public services. He burst into prominence in 2024 after a scandal involving a government pardon in a child abuse case, in which he publicly accused Fidesz of protecting itself. Positioning himself as a whistleblower from within, he tapped into widespread disillusionment, drawing large crowds and quickly building the Tisza movement into a formidable political force. Magyar’s appeal lies in both his outsider message and insider knowledge, but he remains something of an unknown quantity. He has promised to restore democratic checks and relations with the EU while cracking down on corruption, yet has kept many policies deliberately vague and avoided culture-war issues. *** Things can only get better? As well as Jakub, I also exchanged messages with Ashifa overnight. She tells me it has been “incredibly fascinating” to be on the ground for this election and witness this moment in Hungary. “Last year I spent time in Budapest speaking to rights campaigners who described what it was like to go up against the regime – defending migrants, the rule of law, LGBTQ+ rights and academic freedom,” she says. “In hushed tones, many of them told me there was a possibility for change, citing polls that suggested Magyar could win.” But for many, she adds, it felt like a distant prospect – “particularly as the machine that Fidesz had built, now backed by the White House, felt unbeatable.” In the end, it appears it was not. With 98.74% of the vote counted, Magyar’s Tisza party was projected to win 138 of the 199 seats in parliament – a supermajority capable of amending the constitution and key laws. “There’s an overwhelming sense that things will now get better here,” Ashifa says. *** What has been the international reaction? Magyar said he had received calls on Sunday night from the French president, Emmanuel Macron, Nato’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte, the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and the European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen. “Today Europe wins and European values win,” said Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, on social media. The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, wrote on social media: “Hungary, Poland, Europe, back together! Glorious victory, dear friends! Ruszkik haza!”. That last phrase translates into English as “Russians, go home”. British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said “This is an historic moment, not only for Hungary, but for European democracy.” There was no reaction from the White House so far overnight, and in particular no comment from the US vice-president, JD Vance, who had campaigned for Orbán in Budapest earlier in the week, openly admitting he was in Hungary on an “unprecedented” trip to help him win the election and accusing the EU of interfering in Hungary’s democracy. *** What next for Hungary? “Once the hangover of tonight’s celebrations fades,” Jakub says, “attention will turn to the mundane again. Can Péter Magyar actually deliver? We honestly can’t tell at this stage.” “You cannot reverse sixteen years of state capture and institutional vandalism with the snap of a finger,” he says. “The task of reconstructing a democratic state, reviving an ailing economy, and mending broken alliances will be daunting.” But after more than a decade of what Jakub described as Orbán’s “never apologise, always double down” politics, he suggests voters may be willing to forgive some early missteps – provided there is honesty and accountability. Is it the end for Orbán? Time will tell. “We are going to serve the Hungarian nation and our homeland from opposition as well,” he told supporters. And for the victor? Magyar told the nation: “Today, we won because Hungarians didn’t ask what their homeland could do for them – they asked what they could do for their homeland. You found the answer.” What else we’ve been reading A fascinating insight into the geniuses behind the scenes who create magnificent stage sets for London’s theatre shows, from a giant “death star” chandelier to a roaming double bed. Katy Vans, newsletters team Samira Shackle talks to Tareena Shakil, who is trying to rebuild her life in the UK as an influencer, having fled to live inside the Islamic State as a teenager. Martin I admit to being a longtime convert to barefoot hiking boots, so it was with interest that I read the Filter’s rundown of the best barefoot shoes. Katy The scimitar-horned oryx is thought to be the origin of the myth of the unicorn. Annaliese Smith tells the incredible story of their reintroduction to the wild in Chad. Martin Artist Molly Crabapple writes passionately about the ongoing threat posed to the creative industries by AI, “We are replaced by digital homunculi, trained on our stolen creations”. Katy Sport Golf | Defending champion Rory McIlroy won the Masters by one shot over Scottie Scheffler to collect his sixth major and become the fourth repeat winner at Augusta National and first since Tiger Woods in 2002. Football | Manchester City have closed the gap on Arsenal with an expert destruction of Chelsea at a flat Stamford Bridge, beating them 3-0. A 1-1 draw at home to Aston Villa helped Nottingham Forest cling on to hopes of avoiding the Premier League drop zone. No such luck for Spurs who lost 1-0 away to Sunderland, leaving them sat in the relegation spot with only six games left to go. Football | Wrexham missed the chance to move within a point of the Sky Bet Championship playoff places after they suffered a 2-0 defeat by Birmingham at St Andrews. The front pages The Guardian leads with “Hungary enters new era as election ends Orban’s 16-year grip on power”. The Financial Times has “Trump declares blockade of Hormuz after Iran talks fail to yield peace deal”, while the Times goes with “Trump: US blockade to end Strait ‘extortion’”. The i reports “Inflation warning for Britain as Trump threatens shipping blockade in revenge for failed peace talks”. The Telegraph says “PM refuses to join blockade of Hormuz”. The Mail reports “Labour plots to deny MPs vote on new EU sell-out”. Finally the Sun leads with a new purchase from former England captain John Terry with “JT buys United! (er Colchester that is)”. Today in Focus Meta’s AI glasses and the dawn of wearable tech Elle Hunt on her month wearing Meta’s smart glasses and the privacy concerns around the technology. Cartoon of the day | Tom Gauld The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad TikTok has shown itself to be more than just a social media app for many users who are discovering serious health issues through its algorithm and comment sections. Malina Lee learned she had thyroid cancer after a commentator – known online as “PickleFart” – noticed asymmetry in her neck. Women are particularly prone to medical gaslighting and they say TikTok helps them identify conditions after being dismissed in official medical settings. Dallas film-maker Tori Mosser was brushed off by doctors until a commenter suggested chronic appendicitis, which was later confirmed through surgery. While clinicians warn that social media can spread misinformation, users like Lee and Mosser say TikTok has provided community, validation and early clues that have led to life‑saving care. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
Donald Trump has said the US will begin a blockade of the strait of Hormuz, after ceasefire talks with Iran ended without an agreement over the weekend. The strait has emerged as Iran’s most effective weapon in its asymmetric war with the US. Since 28 February, the US and Israel have pounded Iran, striking thousands of targets and killing dozens of the country’s most senior leaders. Iran has responded by effectively closing the strait – a vital waterway through which in normal times about 20% of global oil moves – driving up oil prices and fuelling fears of a rise in inflation. The threat from the president has now left global markets in another period of uncertainty, after last week they ended optimistic that negotiations between Washington and Tehran might result in an end to the chaos that has hit the world economy for more than six weeks. What has Trump announced about the strait of Hormuz blockade? On Sunday, the president posted to social media: “The United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” Accusing Iran of “WORLD EXTORTION”, Trump threatened that any person who attacked the US vessels would be “BLOWN TO HELL!” Trump’s sweeping threat to blockade “any and all” ships appeared to have been scaled down hours after his announcement, after US Central Command (Centcom) said the blockade would be confined to vessels transiting through Iranian ports – and that it would permit passage of ships headed to ports belonging to the US’s Gulf allies. Centcom said the blockade would come into effect at 10am ET (3pm BST). Trump told Fox News that allies, many of whom he has criticised for failing to back the war, wanted to help with the operation in the strait. The Guardian understands the UK will not be involved in any blockade of the strait and the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said the country was not asked to participate. Why would Trump threaten to block the strait of Hormuz if his goal is to reopen it? Reports indicate that the reopening of the strait was one of the big sticking points in the weekend negotiations between the US and Iran. Tehran has indicated that it would like to retain control of the waterway after the war has ended, and has floated a plan to charge a fee of up to $2m for each ship that passes through the waterway. Trump and other world leaders have rejected such a plan as an attack on “freedom of navigation”. Despite Trump’s claims that reopening the waterway is not his responsibility, the president is under pressure to resolve the issue before the continued closure of the strait unleashes an even greater crisis for the global economy. If Trump’s strategy succeeds, he will eliminate Iran’s greatest point of leverage in negotiations and clear the strait again for global trade, potentially lowering oil prices. How would the blockade work? The US military has not offered many details yet, including how many warships will enforce it, whether warplanes will be used and whether any Gulf allies will assist in the effort. Experts say it is unlikely the US military would fire missiles or other weapons at tankers, given the risk of an environmental disaster. The most likely option is the US navy will try to force vessels to change course through threats, and if that doesn’t work, they will launch armed boarding parties to take physical control of the ships, experts say. “Trump wants a quick fix. The reality is, this mission is difficult to execute alone and likely unsustainable over the medium to long term,” said Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. What will the blockade do to the oil price? Experts say the blockade could lead to higher oil prices but much depends on its “scope and implementation.” Kevin Book, the managing director of research at the research firm ClearView Energy Partners, said that leaner volumes generally mean tighter markets and higher prices. “How Tehran responds matters, too. Iranian and/or Houthi reprisals against Gulf producers’ alternative routes could drive prices still higher,” Book said. By closing the strait to vessels carrying Iranian oil, Trump could cut off one of the regime’s major sources of funding – but it could also have a short-term negative effect on global prices. About 100 tankers have transited the strait since the US and Israel started bombing Iran, most of them carrying Iranian oil products bound for China and India. The US has allowed Iran to continue these exports – and even lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea – in a move to ease supply pressures. The hope was that continued supplies of Iranian oil could help keep prices in check, despite those profits going directly to the Iranian regime. Throttling those supplies could send prices higher still. After Trump’s announcement, the price of US crude increased 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil rose 7% to $102.29. Brent crude, the international standard, has gone from roughly $70 a barrel before the war in late February to as high as $119 over the course of the conflict. What now for the US-Iran war ceasefire? Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said any warships that approach the strait to enforce a blockade would be considered in breach of the current ceasefire and would be dealt with strongly. They insisted the strait remained under Iranian control. Trump floated the possibility on Sunday of a resumption of US strikes inside Iran, citing missile factories as one possible target. The Wall Street Journal reported that his administration was considering resuming strikes as a way to break the stalemate in peace talks.