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Middle East crisis live: Trump hints at return to talks in Pakistan as he continues feud with Pope and Nato

The Sky News interview is one of several Trump has given in the past 24 hours, in which he has indicated the war with Iran may be nearing an end. When asked by Sky whether a deal could happen before King Charles visits the US at the end of the month, Trump said: “It’s possible. Very possible. They’re beaten up pretty bad.” In an interview with Fox News, which is scheduled to air later this morning, the US president said the Iran war was “close to over, yeah, I mean I view it as very close to over”. Speaking to the New York Post yesterday, Trump said another round of peace talks “could be happening over next two days”. Trump has previously suggested that the war was ending. In his address to the nation on 1 April, Trump said the war was “nearing completion” and could end in “two or three weeks”.

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North Korea rapidly expanding nuclear weapons capability, UN watchdog warns

North Korea has made “very serious” progress in its ability to produce more nuclear weapons, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog has warned, in another sign that the regime is seeking to use its nuclear arsenal to ensure its survival. North Korea is thought to have assembled about 50 nuclear warheads, although some experts are sceptical of its claims that it is able to miniaturise them so they can be attached to long-range ballistic missiles. Speaking during a visit to the South Korean capital, Seoul, on Wednesday, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed reports of a rapid rise in activity at North Korea’s main nuclear complex, Yongbyon. Grossi said work had intensified at Yongbyon’s five-megawatt reactor, reprocessing unit, light water reactor and other facilities, adding that the country is believed to possess several dozen nuclear warheads. Since conducting its first nuclear test in 2006, the regime in Pyongyang has acquired what some experts say is a workable nuclear capability that includes intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland. Under Kim Jong-un, who became leader five years later, North Korea has accelerated its nuclear weapons programme in defiance of UN sanctions, in what observers believe is an attempt to reduce the likelihood that it could one day be a target for regime change by the US. Grossi’s comments came as a US thinktank said North Korea appeared to have completed a building intended for uranium enrichment at Yongbyon. Beyond Parallel, at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said this week that satellite imagery indicated the new facility was nearing operational readiness, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported. The thinktank said the suspected new enrichment facility at Yongbyon and another at a site in Kangson near Pyongyang had not been declared to international nuclear authorities. Production of enriched uranium, it warned, “would significantly increase the number of nuclear weapons North Korea could possess”. The report matched an assessment issued by the IAEA in June last year in which it said Pyongyang was building an enrichment facility at Yongbyon that could be used to produce weapons-grade material. In March, Grossi said there was no evidence of “significant change” at the North’s main nuclear testing site at Punggye-ri, but added that it was still capable of supporting nuclear tests. He called North Korea’s nuclear programme a “clear violations” of UN security council resolutions, adding that the agency “continues to maintain its enhanced readiness to play its essential role in verifying [North Korea’s] nuclear programme”. North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test since 2017, but has demonstrated advances in its missile technology and increased its stockpile of weapons, in line with Kim’s vow last August to pursue a “rapid expansion of nuclearisation”. Diplomatic efforts to rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have faltered after unsuccessful summits between Kim and Donald Trump during the US president’s first term, and a deterioration in ties between Pyongyang and Seoul. Earlier this year, South Korea’s pro-engagement president, Lee Jae Myung, said the North Korea was producing enough material to build 10 to 20 nuclear weapons a year, as well as improving its long-range ballistic missile technology. “At some point, North Korea will have secured the nuclear arsenal it believes it needs to sustain the regime, along with ICBM capabilities capable of threatening not only the United States but the wider world,” Lee said in January. “And once there is excess, it will go abroad – beyond its borders. A global danger will then emerge.” North Korea, however, has dismissed Lee’s attempts to kickstart cross-border dialogue.

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Wednesday briefing: ​Why are people turning global ​crises ​into ​high‑​stakes ​bets​?

For punters using the online prediction market Polymarket, almost everything is a chance to make money. Want to bet on when the US and Iran will reach a peace agreement? Polymarket will let you. Fancy a gamble on how many times Elon Musk will post on X by the end of the day? There’s a market for it. Have a hunch that the second coming of Jesus Christ will happen before 2027? Polymarket reckons there is (currently) a 4% chance, and there’s about $57m on the line already. In just a few years, prediction markets have become big business, with hundreds of millions of pounds traded on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket each day. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Aisha Down, the Guardian’s reporter on AI about her recent investigation into the platform and how bedroom gamblers are profiting on anything from the Ukraine war to the number of times President Trump says the word “ballroom” in a speech. But first, the headlines. Five big stories Middle East | Donald Trump has said that US-Iranian peace talks could resume in Islamabad over the next two days, and complimented the work of Pakistan’s army chief as mediator. Economy | A further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession, spiralling inflation and a sharp backlash in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned. Spain | Begoña Gómez, the wife of Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has been charged with embezzlement, influence peddling, corruption in business dealings and misappropriation of funds. UK news | The police watchdog is investigating complaints made against 11 officers over their handling of an inquiry into a car crash that killed two schoolgirls in 2023. Health | Wes Streeting has vowed to stop women being “gaslit” by doctors as he relaunches the women’s health strategy for England. In depth: ‘Organisations have no idea that their reporting is being used to settle bets’ The trenches of eastern Ukraine are a long way from people gambling on the conflict. But right now on Polymarket, there are millions of dollars at stake over the likelihood of Russia or Ukraine capturing contested towns and cities. Gamblers place bets against each other on different outcomes on the platform. It is, in effect, derivatives trading on world events for the masses. If, say, a user believes that Russia will enter the Ukrainian city of Sumy by 30 June, they can buy a “yes” option at the current market likelihood. Buying at a 1% chance means the gambler stands to make one hundred times their money if it happens. Rival gamblers take the other side of the bet, which are all made anonymously using cryptocurrency. Just like traditional derivative markets, the bets themselves can also be traded. To critics, the Peter Thiel-backed Polymarket is immoral and should be at least regulated like legalised gambling – or even banned. Some countries have already moved to outlaw Polymarket and its rivals. In the US, the platform’s fortunes have improved remarkably under the Trump presidency, which has thrown its weight behind the rapidly growing industry. Last year, Donald Trump Jr joined Polymarket’s advisory board. As the size of wagers has grown, updates on global events have gained a new meaning for users. Official announcements over troop movements and developments in Ukraine, for example, are no longer just updates for anxious civilians and people caught in the war, says Aisha. They have also become key evidence for settling lucrative bets. “A lot of the Russia-Ukraine bets are settled with information published by the Institute for the Study of War, a US thinktank. They produce a daily map of the frontline. But these organisations have no idea that their reporting is being used to settle bets on Polymarket. Sometimes they become targeted,” she says. *** A real threat In March, an Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian received threatening messages from Polymarket users over a report on a minor missile strike near Jerusalem, which became a key data point over an unresolved bet during the fighting between Israel and Iran. Fabian had written up an Iranian missile strike in a live blog post, thinking little of it, but was later inundated with messages demanding that he update his story to reflect that missile fragments had hit the earth after an interception instead of a direct hit from a missile. After investigating the messages further, the reporter realised they were coming from Polymarket users who stood to profit from a $23m stake over whether or not Iran would strike Israel on 10 March. A “strike” had to involve a bomb or a missile, non-intercepted, hitting Israeli soil. The people getting in touch with him stood to win if it was determined that a direct strike had not taken place. There have been many other examples, she says. “A famous bet dispute was whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit to the World Economic Forum last year. Millions of dollars were bet on it. He wore something that was kind of like a suit, but millions of people said it wasn’t because it had cargo pockets on it,” Aisha explains. “When something is contested, it goes to a group of anonymous adjudicators who vote to resolve the bet,” she says. *** Insider trading There are big questions about corruption risks on Polymarket, says Aisha. Before the US-Iran ceasefire was announced last month, several newly opened accounts on the platform bet a total of nearly $70,000 on a pause in the fighting just before President Trump made that exact announcement. Experts said this suggested inside knowledge, with similar incidents happening before the US and Israel attacked Iran in February. “Right before the US-Israeli strikes in early March, there were six wallets that were all created basically on the same day. They were wagering that the US would attack Iran. And they all correctly bet on the strikes. People think they are insiders because they are not regular bets,” says Aisha. Frequent Polymarket users have started after the accounts, she says, setting up alerts for when they make a trade so others can copy it. “One of them is apparently an insider in the US Federal Reserve. So an alert comes out whenever that insider bets on the Fed interest rate,” she says. *** Beyond ethics In her conversations with users, Aisha has pressed Polymarket gamblers on the ethics of gambling on war and other world events where lives are at stake. They pushed back strongly, she said. Users say that there is an inherent value in the predictions themselves, arguing that the platform is a source of truth. “For many, it’s a free speech thing. If you’re on the frontline in Ukraine in the fog of war, maybe the government is lying to you. Maybe the news is lying to you. But bets on Polymarket are an open source of information,” she says. “Some longtime users feel that it has become a casino. There are thousands of people who are tracking arbitrage opportunities or new ways to make money on geopolitical events that are spilling into the wider world,” she says. “Goldman Sachs now cites Polymarket sentiment in market updates. But it’s so opaque, it’s really hard to know what’s happening.” Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment. What else we’ve been reading I was saddened by Antonia Shipley’s excellent piece about the young people being encouraged to train for careers in the green energy sector, only to leave college with no job prospects. Lucinda Everett, newsletters team Ahead of a sweltering summer of sport, the Guardian has launched the fortnightly Hotspot newsletter, which covers how the climate crisis intertwines with all of the sports we love. Sign up here. Patrick Lucy Knight has spent a month consuming all things trad wife to understand what it is about the jam-making, couture-wearing women people can’t get enough of. An entertaining, illuminating read. Lucinda I was gripped by this tale from mountain climber Lucy Shepherd about how she learned to trust her gut while on a climbing trip in Tajikistan. Patrick A fascinating read on how large language models could change the way humans speak, and even think – “encouraging us to talk like bosses barking orders”. Lucinda Sport Football | Lauren Hemp scored the sole goal in England’s 1-0 win against Spain as the Lionesses maintained their perfect record in the 2027 Women’s World Cup qualifiers. Football | A second-half Ousmane Dembélé double gave PSG a 2-0 win at Liverpool, and a 4-0 victory on aggregate, in the Champions League quarter-final second leg. Cricket | England Test captain Ben Stokes has played down suggestions of a disagreement between himself and head coach Brendon McCullum. The front pages “Iran conflict could spark recession with Britain hit hardest in G7 - IMF,” is the splash on the Guardian on Wednesday. “No exit plan, no idea,” says the Mirror. “UK economy takes triple hit from Iran war,” has the i, while the FT runs with: “Wall St bank earnings shatter records as traders thrive on Iran war volatility.” “‘We cannot defend Britain with an ever expanding welfare bill’” is the lead story at the Mail, as the Times opts for: “Reeves dashes hopes of boost to defence funding.” “‘Wake up’ PM and honour heroes hurt in line of duty,” says the Express. “Labour set to lose control in Wales,” has the Telegraph. “Yes yes yes Minister,” writes the Star, while the Sun asks “Who wants to be a billionaire?” Finally, the Metro with: “Cheers, Timmy!” Today in Focus Is the EU back in vogue? This week, the Guardian reported that Labour is planning to bring in new legislation that will forge closer ties between the UK and the EU. Nearly 10 years on from the Brexit vote, the Guardian’s senior correspondent Lisa O’Carroll speaks to Helen Pidd about what a UK-EU reset would look like. Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad In 2024, artist and film-maker Steve McQueen visited the Chelsea flower show’s Grenadian pavilion. The beautiful plants he saw, from an island that has experienced such trauma, “felt like camouflage to questions that should be asked”. That summer, he travelled to Grenada and photographed the island’s plants as a way of exploring their connection to that trauma. He has now published them in a book, Steve McQueen’s Bounty. “[These plants] have been constant witnesses of turmoil and upheaval,” says McQueen. “Sometimes the most horrific things happen in the most beautiful places. That’s the perversity of life.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

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Justice denied: why families of apartheid victims are still searching for answers

Darkness had fallen on 27 June 1985 when Fort Calata, Matthew Goniwe, Sicelo Mhlauli and Sparrow Mkonto set off on the 150-mile drive back from a meeting of anti-apartheid activists in the South African city of Port Elizabeth, now known as Gqeberha. They never made it home. About an hour into their journey, as the road wound north from the coast towards their home town of Cradock (now called Nxuba), the four men were pulled over by three white security police officers. They were handcuffed and driven back towards Gqeberha. Mkonto was shot after a struggle with one of the officers. The other three were hit over the head from behind. Their bodies were stabbed several times by three black officers who had joined their colleagues, to make it look like a vigilante attack. Finally, the corpses were set alight. When Mhlauli’s body was found, one of his hands was missing. The four men became known as the Cradock Four, their murders a symbol of the cruel, callous violence of apartheid. The advent of democracy in 1994 brought the families neither the justice they sought nor answers about whether the murders were sanctioned at the highest levels of government. More than 40 years later, the families are still fighting, and their struggle has come to symbolise the deficiencies of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), whose hearings began 30 years ago, on 15 April 1996. The TRC, led by the late Nobel peace laureate Desmond Tutu, was designed to uncover human rights violations committed by the apartheid regime and the groups that fought it. It offered or denied amnesty to perpetrators who confessed. Successive governments led by the African National Congress liberation movement failed to pursue hundreds of cases referred to state prosecutors by the TRC. Victims’ families have accused the former presidents Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma of striking a deal with apartheid generals to bury the cases in exchange for atrocities committed by ANC members during the struggle not being pursued in court. Mbeki, who was president from 1999 to 2008, has denied stopping the TRC cases. He and Zuma, who was president from 2009 to 2018, have tried to halt a judicial inquiry into whether there was political interference with prosecutions. In the case of the Cradock Four, a 1987 inquest concluded they were killed by “unknown persons”. A second inquest in 1993 said “members of the security forces” were responsible but did not name any specific perpetrators. It was only at the TRC that the three white police officers admitted to the murders, in an attempt to evade prosecution, and another three admitted to planning or ordering them. All were denied amnesty by the TRC and all have since died. The three black police officers were killed by security forces in a car bombing in 1989 amid fears that they would reveal the truth about the murders. A third inquest into the Cradock Four killings opened in June last year, after the families had put the government under sustained pressure for years. Their question remained: why, when they had been denied amnesty by the TRC, were the killers not prosecuted decades earlier? *** The TRC’s first hearings were in East London (now KuGompo City), 180 miles up the coast from Gqeberha. For many victims and their relatives, this was their first chance to speak publicly about their suffering. On the second day of hearings, Nomonde Calata, the widow of Fort Calata, broke down. Her cries of anguish were watched by millions via the national broadcaster SABC. After her husband’s death, aged 28, Calata had stopped herself from crying. “[I thought] the enemy will laugh at me when they see my sadness,” she said in an interview on 22 March, sitting with her son Lukhanyo in a Gqeberha hotel before a week of hearings in the third inquest. “So when I went to the TRC, I just couldn’t hold the cry in me and the pain.” The National party came to power in 1948, enforcing racial discrimination and segregation and pushing white Afrikaner nationalism. But the TRC only covered 1960 to 1994. Nonetheless, it took the testimonies of about 21,000 victims, of whom 2,000 testified publicly. In dozens of hearings that lasted until June 1997, they spoke of torture, abduction, disappearances and killings. The process gripped South Africa. So too did the appearances of some apartheid security police, who admitted to violations in an attempt to escape prosecution. They included Eugene de Kock, who led the Vlakplaas assassination squad and was known as “Prime Evil”. In October 1996, De Kock was convicted of six murders and sentenced to 212 years in prison. A year later, he testified at the TRC, expressing bitterness that apartheid generals and politicians had not also taken responsibility. The amnesty hearings lasted until 2000. There were more than 7,000 applications for amnesty and 849 were granted. Max du Preez presented the SABC’s weekly Sunday evening TRC Special Report. An Afrikaner himself, he had exposed many of apartheid’s horrors during its dying years as the editor of the progressive newspaper Vrye Weekblad. “We fully expected an apartheid denial after 1994. But we never had it. And I think watching the amnesty applicants confessing to all these crimes played a big role in that,” he said. “If you were any kind of reasonable person, you could not deny afterwards that apartheid was a violent, evil system. I think that was important.” However, Yasmin Sooka, a TRC commissioner and human rights lawyer, said the commission did not properly expose the systemic nature of apartheid. “The politicians, from the outset when they appeared, made it clear, particularly Mr De Klerk [FW de Klerk, the last apartheid president], that he was not going to take responsibility for their actions,” she said. “That did mar the process. It certainly affected the questions of disclosure.” *** The TRC provided powerful moments of catharsis, truth-telling and accountability. But, as disappointment with the ANC has grown in the 32 years it has led South Africa amid persistent inequality, poverty and corruption, so too have criticisms of the TRC’s scope. Zanele Mji was just eight years old when hearings began, absorbing an idealised version of reconciliation as promoted by Tutu. But as she grew up, becoming an investigative journalist, she realised the TRC’s limitations. “The violence was how [apartheid] was enforced,” she said. “But what it actually was, no one was ever tried for that. Land, education, housing – all these things that still really hold South Africa back today.” Cyril Adonis, an associate professor of psychology at the University of South Africa, has found that poverty is the biggest predictor of whether people who suffered under apartheid and their descendants experience intergenerational trauma. “The main thing is material deprivation,” he said. “Especially if you can link it to something concrete like apartheid, or my father was a breadwinner [and was] injured, tortured to the extent that he cannot work, killed, disappeared.” For many, the TRC was damned by the lack of prosecutions. Lukhanyo Calata does not blame the TRC for his father’s killers not being brought to justice, though. Rather, he blames the ANC government led by Mbeki. “They sold us out,” he said. He said of Fort Calata: “He was a husband, he was a father, he was a brother, he was a son, he was a teacher, he was a musician … The ANC government was supposed to affirm all of who he was, by holding his killers to account. So when they didn’t, they failed to affirm that the life of a black person in South Africa is equal to that of a white person.” In July 2021, the FW de Klerk Foundation said on its website: “Because of an informal agreement between the ANC leadership and former operatives of the pre-1994 government, the NPA [National Prosecuting Authority] suspended its prosecutions of apartheid-era crimes.” De Klerk died four months later. Apartheid generals separately told the authors Ole Bubenzer and Michael Schmidt they had secret talks from 1998 to 2004 with ANC officials including Zuma and Mbeki. In 1999, both leaders were among 27 senior ANC figures denied amnesty as they had not disclosed specific acts. In January 2025, Lukhanyo Calata led 25 families and survivors in suing South Africa’s government for failing to prosecute TRC cases. In response, that May, the president, Cyril Ramaphosa, announced a judicial inquiry into potential political interference, led by a retired constitutional court judge, Sisi Khampepe. Mbeki, Zuma and their justice ministers have refused to cooperate. On 30 March this year, the high court rejected their attempt to get Khampepe removed. They have appealed to the constitutional court, claiming Khampepe is biased as she was a TRC commissioner. Meanwhile, the inquiry’s hearings have continued, with former prosecutors testifying that their work on TRC cases was obstructed. The final report to Ramaphosa is due on 31 July. *** Lonwabo Mkonto was six years old when his father, Sparrow, was killed at the age of 33. Now 47, he remembers his father, a railway worker who founded a football and a rugby team, surrounded by people at sports games, educating them about politics. At 18, Lonwabo attended an initiation school, a Xhosa rite of passage. Usually, fathers provided guidance to their sons. “Other initiates are getting visits from their fathers,” he said, voice faltering. “And you just sit there and wait for nobody, knowing that your father will never come.” The Cradock Four were each committed anti-apartheid campaigners. Calata and Goniwe in particular were at the forefront of a boycott of schools and white-owned businesses, after Goniwe was fired as a headteacher in Cradock’s black township due to his activism, in November 1983. On 7 June 1985, Christoffel “Joffel” van der Westhuizen, a former military commander of the then Eastern province, authorised the sending of a signal to the regime’s state security council. It proposed that Calata, Goniwe and Goniwe’s nephew Mbulelo be “removed permanently from society as a matter of urgency”. Three weeks later, the Cradock Four were dead. In 1993, the second inquest into the murders concluded that Van der Westhuizen intended the signal as a recommendation to kill. Lourens du Plessis, who sent the signal and is now dead, testified in an affidavit then: “It was clear to both of us that what was being proposed involved the killing of Goniwe.” Van der Westhuizen said in 1993 that he never wrote or saw the signal’s contents, nor was he involved in any killings. Last year, in the third Cradock Four inquest, he repeated this, testifying via video link while the families watched from a Gqeberha courtroom. On 23 March this year, Eugene de Kock arrived at Gqeberha’s high court for the inquest, accompanied by police officers with rifles. According to the local media outlet News24, the 77-year-old had spent the previous night in police custody for protection, at his own request. De Kock had told the TRC that he advised the police officer who shot Mkonto how to dispose of the gun, for which he received amnesty. In March, he testified as a witness, telling the inquest that “removed permanently from society” meant murder. Afterwards, Lukhanyo Calata shook De Kock’s hand. “He’s perhaps coming here and helping us, as the families of the Cradock Four. But he’s also the same person that had caused tremendous amounts of hurt and loss and pain to other families. So he’s not a hero by any spectre of the imagination,” he told journalists. Nombuyiselo Mhlauli, the widow of Sicelo Mhlauli, said she hoped the inquest judge Thami Beshe would consider their decades of suffering. Mhlauli, who never remarried, remembered her husband as a loving man, a headteacher who sang in church choirs and appreciated the smallest of things. “I don’t even have a house in Cradock,” she said. “If my husband was here, we would be having our house, reading newspapers, sharing spectacles. I hope that the judge will keep that in mind.” Lonwabo Mkonto said he just wanted answers. “That’s the only thing we are left with, is to know the truth. And maybe why did they do it?” He said he didn’t expect anyone to go to prison, given that a separate trial would have to follow. “I’m sure before the judgment … they will die, I’m sure.”

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After 1,200 years, cherry blossom record to live on despite Japanese scientist’s death

Even in his final months, he counted the days until the cherry blossoms. Prof Yasuyuki Aono of Osaka Metropolitan University spent his career gathering data on the spring flowering dates of cherry trees in Japan in what is one of the world’s longest climate records tracking a seasonal occurrence. Using sources dating as far back as the 9th century, he revealed that cherry tree flowerings have occurred progressively earlier in recent decades – a now famous marker of climate change. Last April, Aono posted a photo to social media of his spreadsheet. He had just completed the 2025 entry, recording “4 [April]” as the peak flowering date for the particular cherry tree species he tracked, the mountain cherry, or Prunus jamasakura. Below this, the next row was already marked “2026” but Aono never got to fill it in. He died on 5 August last year, according to former colleagues contacted by the Guardian. “You can very much see that he planned to continue,” said Tuna Acisu, a data scientist at Our World in Data, an online platform that publishes a chart based on Aono’s cherry tree data. “That made me a little bit emotional.” Now, following a search launched by Acisu last week – sparked by fears that no one would be able to continue the 1,200-year cherry blossom record – a researcher in Japan has stepped forward and offered to make formal observations of the mountain cherry’s spring flowerings. “He is consulting the same sources as Prof Aono to get us this year’s cherry blossom peak bloom and said he will confirm the date in the coming days,” Acisu said. The researcher in question asked to remain anonymous until the arrangement is finalised. Acisu and colleagues first realised that something may have happened to Aono when they noticed in January that his university web page was no longer active. They then learned that he had died and that no other researcher or institution had emerged to carry on his observations. Spring arrived with no new mountain cherry data. After Acisu launched her campaign to find a new cherry blossom observer, she received dozens of messages. “It’s really great to know that the dataset is being continued,” she said, expressing her gratitude to the new researcher. “I feel very relieved.” Crucially, Acisu had sought a contact in Japan who could continue tracking not only the same species of cherry, but also in the same location: Arashiyama, Kyoto. There are other projects that monitor cherry tree flowerings around Japan, since cherry bloom festivals are an important part of culture and tourism in the country, but not this specific species. For example, the Japan Weather Association monitors a different species: the Somei-yoshino cherry (Prunus x yedoensis), which was cultivated in the 19th century. That Aono was able to compile flowering data for the mountain cherry over a period spanning more than 1,200 years is what gave his data series such significance, said Acisu. Scientists have found the signature of climate change in a wide variety of other sources, including tree rings, plant pigments deposited in seabed sediments, and even temperature and humidity records jotted down by organ tuners in British churches. Among the revelations made by Aono were the 2021 and 2023 peak flowering dates – they are the earliest in the entire mountain cherry record, occurring on the 85th and 84th day of those years, respectively. Aono’s work on the mountain cherry was “extremely important”, said Toshio Katsuki, a dendrologist at the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute in Ibaraki prefecture, who added that efforts to continue recording the same species’ spring flowering dates would be academically valuable. Richard Primack, a professor of biology at Boston University, met Aono on a trip to Japan in 2006. Aono told him that he had learned to read old forms of Japanese in order to build up his dataset of mountain cherry flowering dates. In dusty historical archives, Aono would find references to cherry blossom festivals in Kyoto and, from that, was able to calculate the flowering dates for specific years. While some years are missing, the earliest record he found dated to 812. “It was really quite an amazing experience,” said Primack, remembering the meeting. “You just realise how dedicated an individual he was.” In a paper published earlier this month, Primack and Katsuki described how flowering of the Somei-yoshino cherry also appears to be affected by climate change in southern areas of Japan. Data from 1965 to 2024 shows that milder winters were increasingly causing the spring-flowering cherries to have “a kind of bedraggled look, rather than a full, dazzling display,” said Primack. “Many of the flower buds were falling off without opening.”

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Orange earthquake: gold miners fled to underground refuge chambers when 4.5-magnitude quake hit central west NSW

More than 150 workers at the Cadia goldmine in regional New South Wales were evacuated after a nearby 4.5-magnitude earthquake on Tuesday evening, according to an internal company memo. The mine has paused all underground operations pending a safety assessment. The quake’s epicentre was just 3km from the Newmont Cadia goldmine tailings dam, which partially collapsed in 2018. Effects of the quake were felt hundreds of kilometres away. The quake hit at 8.19pm on Tuesday at a depth of 5km about 30km south-west of Orange in central west NSW. Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email An internal Newmont announcement sent to Cadia goldmine staff, seen by Guardian Australia, said 153 people who were working underground “are accounted for, and were progressively returned safely to the surface, and have been debriefed”. “Personnel underground moved quickly and appropriately to refuge chambers,” the announcement said. “Mine rescue teams worked through a structured re-entry and rescue plan.” The announcement said the earthquake occurred to the east of the underground mine and was felt across the central west. “Safety and the wellbeing of our people remain the top priority,” the announcement said. “We are working on a structured process to develop a mine recovery plan.” The announcement acknowledged the event “may be unsettling for people. Please look out for one another, speak to your leader” and said a support service was available if needed. The Blayney shire mayor, Bruce Reynolds, who lives about 12km from the epicentre, told Australian Associated Press his biggest concern when the quake occurred was the underground workers at the Cadia mine. The quake “was like an explosion under the house,” Reynolds said. John Clemens, the owner of the Forest Reefs Tavern about a 20-minute drive from the mine site, said they had just closed for the evening when they felt the quake. “We’d just closed the tavern and were counting the takings and the place just shook like a truck was coming through it,” he said. “It was crazy. Windows rattling, wine glasses rattling in the hotel. “We had one once before out near the mine but that one last night was crazy.” He said everyone at the tavern was all right and there had been no damage. “The force coming from the mine side, the western side, it was like the pub leant one way and then came back the other,” he said. The NSW premier, Chris Minns, said the government had no information to suggest the earthquake was linked to mining activity. “We don’t believe it’s linked, or I’ve been given no information that it has been linked,” he said. “I was briefed about it late last night, and there were evacuation protocols that were put in place for miners, but we’ll take a watching brief, and if we get any new or extra information we’ll obviously let the public know about it.” Dr Phil Cummins, senior seismologist at Geoscience Australia, said the national seismic network used to locate earthquakes had “a fair bit of uncertainty associated with those locations” in the central west. He said this made it “very difficult to determine whether this [earthquake] was right in the mine or some distance from the mine”. The uncertainty in the network also made it difficult to determine whether the earthquake was linked to mining, Cummins said. “Certainly any triggering effect that might have been caused by mining activity would be very difficult to determine with the network that we have,” he said. “You really need to have very intense deployments over an extended period of time to really determine that kind of triggering mechanism.” A Newmont spokesperson said “safety procedures functioned effectively, and all underground personnel were accounted for and progressively returned above ground. There have been no reported injuries.” “The safety and wellbeing of our people remains our highest priority. Underground operations have been paused while specialist teams undertake inspections and assessments,” they said. “The company will provide an update on any material production impacts, if applicable.” The NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA) said it had received one report on Wednesday relating to “unusual odours, smoke and a dusty haze near the Cadia mine last night”. A spokesperson said EPA officers were inspecting the site in response to the complaint. “The EPA is writing to its licensees in the central west to remind them to check the structural integrity of dam structures and pollution control infrastructure,” they said. Cummins said Geoscience Australia had received almost 2,300 reports of tremors and the earthquake had been felt as far away as Batemans Bay and Wagga Wagga. He said he would not be surprised if one or more aftershocks occurred, but these were generally expected to be at least one magnitude unit lower than the original quake – meaning any aftershock was expected to be 3.5 or lower. He said the second largest earthquake recorded in the area had been a magnitude 4.3 in 2017, with other smaller earthquakes occurring in past decades. Additional reporting by Penry Buckley and Australian Associated Press

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Viral victory: Iran is beating the land of tech bros in the social media wars

If Iran could manufacture destructive missiles at the speed with which it produces cutting memes, US Central Command would be coming out with its hands up by now. One of the more bizarre and unexpected aspects of the Iran-US war is that Iran, a country by reputation dominated by conservative clerics neuralgic about western culture and media, is dominating the social media war, unleashing its gen Z tech warriors to engage western audiences with its sarcasm and ridicule of the Trump administration. Donald Trump by contrast, now polling at Richard Nixon impeachment levels, cannot stop making mistakes, having to delete his Truth Social disastrous post likening himself to the Messiah, and allowing himself to be manoeuvred into a position where he is taking responsibility for the freezing up of global trade. Iran’s social media performance, ranging from embassies’ social media feeds to the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Qalibaf, is all the more surprising since most Iranians are raging at more than four weeks of digital darkness, the longest government-induced internet blackout in the world. Its once vibrant press has been reduced to reproducing army spokespeople statements, or articles culled from the western press saying Trump is suffering a strategic defeat. Some of Iran’s best newspapers have been shut down, and ordinary Iranians still complain about the unwatchable propagandist official TV news channels. But out of this darkness comes a creativity aimed at the west. Pro-government accounts are posting AI-generated Lego animations that link the Jeffrey Epstein cases to Trump’s war, or using humour and confidence to puncture the west’s failings. The latest example sent out by Iran’s South African embassy, one of the diplomatic network’s stellar performers, shows Donald Trump attired as a 1980s rock star with bouffant hair singing a spoof of Desireless’s Voyage Voyage, renamed Blockade, and playing the keyboards. After 24 hours it had more than 45,000 likes. On the night Trump vowed to end Persian civilisation, the same embassy posted a clip of a dog staring quizzically at the camera as nothing happened. Such is the interest that IranWire mounted an investigation into the brains behind the Qalibaf feed, and claim to have located an old political ally based in the US. Little of the content is explicitly religious. Narges Bajoghli, assistant professor of Middle East studies at the School of Advanced International Studies, John Hopkins University, describes herself as a cultural anthropologist, and as such is also a keen student of Iran’s methods of communication. She told a Quincy Institute briefing this week Iran’s entire media apparatus had been much quicker than the land of the tech bros at getting content and messaging out. “Wars are fought in two spaces,” she explained. “They’re fought on the battleground, and then just as important a battleground is the communications war. Iran has been able to completely monopolise the communications war, especially on social media globally.” She argued the Iranians knew they could not make any kind of dent in US mainstream media because they had been persistently portrayed as a terrorist state run by religious zealots for almost 50 years. “Where they have really come in is hijacking the conversation and the narrative on the social media realm,” said Bajoghli. “You have a generation of very young millennial and gen Z content creators in Iran who have been given the space and the green light to message this war to the global community, and especially those who are online and who now understand the war and understand the world in the aftermath of Gaza. And that is something that is fundamentally shifting.” Bajoghli added: “I have over a dozen accounts that monitor social media across different political discourses and have been doing so for over a decade now on various issues, not just on Iran. I have never seen any issue in which all of my different algorithms collapse on to each other, like with this war. I have seen across the political spectrum, whether it’s the far right, whether it’s more Maga, whether it’s more moderate Republicans, whether it’s on the liberal side, all the way to the far left in the United States.” She said she had not seen such cross-over across groups. “All of them have been sharing viral content from Iran every single day,” she said. “I have never seen this in 15 years of doing this professionally. “Iran’s entire military apparatus has handed over the communications to this younger generation. It is no surprise to me that they are going viral and it is no surprise to me that they have paid attention enough to the discourse online that they’re able to hit upon all of the issues that make it go viral across the political spectrum.” One reason the US may be having such a hard time putting forward its narrative is the cuts imposed by Elon Musk on the US state department. To the extent there is activity, the Pentagon projects its warrior ethos aimed at its base. Trump lives his life in caps and ever larger typefaces. Bajoghli argued Iran is also making huge dents in Arab discourse by pushing on a debate about the meaning of sovereignty, an issue that is not academic but has very real weight. She argued Iran is trying to persuade the Arab world that Israel has been telling the Gulf that the only country that is permitted sovereignty is Israel. As a result, the question has become “what does sovereignty even mean in the region if Israel continues to act as a military hegemon fully backed by the United States”. Bajoghli added: “This is something that none of these countries’ political establishments can sustain for the next two decade if their own sovereignty is consistently being questioned, if they are dealing with two powers that seem to not care about the sovereignty of anybody in the region except for that of Israel.” She said this is the “fault line that the Iranians are pushing up against right now in very robust ways across the Arab discourse”. The Gulf leaders may be very mad at Iran moving forward, but they also can’t change their geography, and may have to contend with Iran’s argument. It is possible the loss of so many Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders have removed some of the brakes on the creative minds pushing out the propaganda, many of whom have an acute awareness of US culture and understand they need to make films in a way that people would not think were made by the Iranian government. One of the most successful Lego-branded themes is the suggestion Trump and Netanyahu are linked to the Epstein scandal, comparing their treatment of children to the bombing of Iranian schoolchildren from Minab. The aim is to insinuate that Trump started this war to distract from the Epstein scandal – a view already circulating in US. It may not be a message Iran invented, but it has reinforced. Changing perceptions of a country takes a long time, and may be impossible in Iran’s case due to the brutality with which it suppresses dissent. Trump’s worldwide unpopularity does not necessarily transmute into worldwide sympathy for Iran. But if there is a shift, as there has been about Israel’s standing in the US, Iran can claim some credit in being ready to push out these videos. Even the assassinated former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, obsessed by the influence western-based satellite channels on the nation’s liberated youth, realised social media’s importance. At a meeting in 2024 he said: “The media is more effective than missiles, planes and drones in forcing the enemy to retreat and to influence hearts and minds. All war is a media war. Whichever actor has greater media influence will achieve their goals.” For the moment the land of the tech bros is losing.

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Ukraine war briefing: Orbán’s defeat in Hungary could unlock €90bn loan for Ukraine, says EU official

The change in Hungary’s government could help unlock €90bn for Ukraine and give a “new push” for it to join the European Union, the bloc’s expansion chief said Tuesday. Marta Kos, speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, described the Hungarian election on Sunday – which saw long-ruling nationalist prime minister Viktor Orbán defeated – as a “big win for Europe.” “I expect, personally, that this will have a positive effect on the accession process,” Kos said. She also said it would help unlock a major loan needed to prop up Ukraine’s budget. Orban had an effective veto on the funds, angering other EU leaders. He had tied the veto to a dispute with Ukraine over a damaged pipeline carrying Russian oil. Britain will announce extra support for Ukraine worth millions of pounds on Wednesday as senior ministers hold a series of meetings with their international counterparts. In Washington DC, chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to confirm a £752m payment to Kyiv ahead of a meeting with Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko. The payment, part of a £3.36bn loan, is intended to help pay for weaponry including long-range missiles, air defence systems and drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday told a German broadcaster that US peace negotiators “have no time for Ukraine” because of the war in Iran, and bemoaned disruption to deliveries of US arms. Zelenskyy told public broadcaster ZDF that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who have helped broker talks with Moscow on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine, were “constantly in talks with Iran” at the moment. Describing the pair as “pragmatic”, Zelenskyy said they were trying to “get more attention from Putin in order to end the war”. But “if the United States does not put pressure on Putin (...) and only engages in a gentle dialogue with the Russians, then they will no longer be afraid”, he said. Norway and Ukraine will strengthen their bilateral defence cooperation, including by producing Ukrainian drones in the Nordic country, the Norwegian government said on Tuesday. Under the agreement, Norway will support the production of drones in Ukraine, while the latter will share data, information and knowledge with Norway, Oslo said in a statement. Ukrainian drones will also be produced on Norwegian territory, it said. “We can learn from the experiences that Ukraine is making in this hard-won fight against the Russian aggression,” prime minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told a joint press conference with Zelenskyy. “It is crucial that we learn from these experiences,” he said. US officials announced on Tuesday an extension of sanctions relief on Russian oil company Lukoil for fuel stations outside Russia as the Trump administration seeks to mitigate spikes in crude prices. The action by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) means Lukoil-branded stations in countries like the United States can continue to serve customers through 29 October. The measure allows the gasoline stations to conduct transactions “in the ordinary course of business” such as procuring motor supplies, making insurance payments and processing employee payroll, OFAC said.