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Four years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Putin has not achieved his goals, says Zelenskyy – Europe live

Meanwhile, let’s take a look at some of the European leaders who are in Kyiv this morning. Here are the prime ministers of Denmark, Sweden and Norway, travelling on the overnight train from Poland. European Council president António Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen are also there, as per photos posted on their social media channels, as is Estonian prime minister Kristen Michal and Latvian prime minister Evika Siliņa. Poland’s deputy prime minister, foreign minister Radosław Sikorski is there too. A number of other leaders will be also joining via video link, taking part in the meeting of the Coalition of the Willing later today. As is the former French prime minister, Gabriel Attal.

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Tuesday briefing: The long and winding road of war in Ukraine, as the human cost mounts

Good morning. Today marks four years since Russian tanks first rolled towards Kyiv as Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine – a war he insisted on calling a “special military operation”. The initial assault was repelled, almost certainly to his surprise, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government remained intact to marshal the nation’s defences. What followed has been widely perceived as a grinding war of attrition. While Russia has made incremental advances across territory it had already destabilised through Moscow-backed separatist republics, Ukraine has been subjected to a relentless aerial assault on its infrastructure – one that western support, from sanctions to air-defence systems and fighter jets, has not been able to halt. Peace initiatives – with varying degrees of sincerity – have come and gone. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Francis Farrell, a Ukraine-based reporter with the Kyiv Independent and co-author of its War Notes newsletter, about how the war looks from inside Ukraine four years on – and what he believes the west’s audience and leaders still misunderstand. First, this morning’s headlines. Five big stories Peter Mandelson| Peter Mandelson has been arrested and released on bail by detectives investigating claims he committed misconduct in public office during his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Education | Hundreds of thousands fewer children with special educational needs and disabilities (Send) will be given education, health and care plans (EHCPs) as a result of long-awaited changes announced by the education secretary. UK politics | Reform UK’s plan to create an ICE-style deportation agency has been condemned as “sadistic”, after the party’s home affairs spokesperson vowed to face down “progressive outrage”. Media | The BBC has issued a new apology for its handling of an incident at the Bafta film awards which saw the N-word broadcast during BBC One coverage of the ceremony and remain overnight on BBC iPlayer. Iran | Donald Trump’s decision to order airstrikes against Iran will hinge in part on the judgment of Trump’s special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. In depth: ‘This war is being fought as a struggle for democratic values’ Four years into the war, there is a sense of permanent exhaustion in Ukraine – but also a continued determination to push on, because there is no alternative, Francis Farrell tells me. The experience of war, he says, varies widely across the country, and even within the same city. Recent waves of attacks on energy infrastructure have left residents in Kyiv with only two or three hours of electricity a day. Which floor you live on in an apartment block can determine whether you have water, heating or access to an elevator. “What is frustrating for Ukrainians of all stripes,” he says, speaking by phone from Vienna, where he is attending a screening of his documentary about the war, “is that it seems sometimes like western partners and audiences and leaders are almost more tired of the war than they are”. Francis reports for the Kyiv Independent, one of Ukraine’s most prominent English-language outlets. Founded weeks before the full-scale invasion as a staff-owned breakaway from the Kyiv Post, the site has grown rapidly and says it now has more than 25,000 members. Its editor, Olga Rudenko, told the Guardian last year that journalism in wartime Ukraine was a moral duty: “If they are dying, we should be using those rights.” *** How do Ukrainians feel about Trump and US support? The US president’s return to the White House initially prompted cautious optimism in some quarters, Farrell says. There was a belief Donald Trump might be willing to apply more direct pressure on Moscow, and that he was someone Vladimir Putin might take seriously – or at least more seriously than the ailing Joe Biden. That optimism has largely curdled into distrust. “There is a very clear understanding that this war is being fought as a struggle for democratic values,” Farrell says. “When Ukrainians see the leader in Washington displaying contempt for those values and for Europe, and warmth towards dictators, that quickly turns into distrust.” There is weariness, he says, about Kyiv having to engage in what he calls diplomatic “theatre” in order to avoid a worst-case scenario of being cut off from US support. The realpolitik of the relationship between the US and Ukraine was laid bare in the astonishing public spat this time last year in the Oval Office, as Trump told Zelenskyy “You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now,” and the Ukrainian replied: “I’m not playing cards. I’m very serious, Mr President. I’m the president in a war.” *** What is Zelenskyy’s standing now in Ukraine? Zelenskyy’s approval ratings have fluctuated over the four years, dipping amid corruption scandals and public anger at officials perceived to be profiting during wartime. But Farrell says most Ukrainians separate such scandals from the president personally. He says that Zelenskyy’s – albeit delayed – decision to let go of chief of staff Andrei Yermak (pictured above right) over corruption allegations showed Zelenskyy put “the importance of the mission and his duty to country higher than loyalty to his friends”. It would, Farrell says, be “stupidly dangerous or dangerously stupid to hold elections right now, with Russia attacking on all sides,” and he says polling earlier this year showed less than one in 10 Ukrainians are in favour of holding them. Ironically, Trump’s dressing down of the president boosted Zelenskyy’s standing with many. Farrell tells me that if they distrust Trump, Ukrainians also don’t place to much stock in the decisiveness or bravery of European leaders. For better or worse, it appears, for many “Zelenskyy is the leader that continues to guide Ukraine through the war, despite his flaws”. *** What is happening on the frontline? Farrell, 28, who grew up in Sydney and was finishing postgraduate studies in post-Soviet geopolitics when the full-scale invasion began, is keen to correct what he sees as a western misconception about the battlefield. The fog of war and increasingly difficult conditions at the front have reduced the ability and willingness for some outlets to report directly. He says some of this can be attributed to the increased danger from drones. More journalists are being killed near the front and Russia is able to target media workers 20km away from the front using drones if, as Farrell puts it, “they stay out in the open too long”. He says western audiences are left with the impression that the war is “bogged down”. It is not a war of manoeuvre, he says, but an attritional war of position. Russia is throwing resources at degrading Ukraine’s ability to defend a long frontline, often with what are euphemistically termed “single-use infantry”. That is cannon fodder to you and me. He says the idea of a stable, static frontline should not be taken for granted. It leads to the assumption that continued aid alone guarantees stability. “The frontline is not held by a constant pipeline of international aid,” he says. “It is held by humans, who are in limited quantity and have a limited enduring strength.” The human cost mounts. A report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) earlier this year estimated Russia has incurred about 1.2 million casualties, including as many as 325,000 deaths, while close to 600,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, wounded or gone missing. Official sources are more coy: in February, Zelenskyy conceded 55,000 Ukrainian service personnel have been killed in the war – Russia has disputed the CSIS figures and says only the Russian defence ministry has the authority to release them. *** What does an endgame look like in 2026? Farrell is sceptical of recurring talk of imminent peace deals. “It is important for people to understand that the peace talks are not peace talks,” he says. In his view, they are largely diplomatic theatre designed to influence Washington and other partners. Russia’s core demand, he argues, remains Ukraine’s political and military capitulation. “The full-scale invasion began with an attack on Kyiv,” he tells me. “It wasn’t about limited objectives. And that hasn’t fundamentally changed.” Four years after an invasion many thought would last weeks at most, the war remains grinding and unresolved, with huge numbers of casualties. For Farrell, the defining question is not whether Ukraine can endure – but whether Europe is prepared to act according to the reality of Russia’s ambitions rather than the hope of a negotiated shortcut. “The sooner Europe acts according to that reality,” he says, “rather than hoping for a magical solution, the better.” What else we’ve been reading I felt sick to my stomach reading this first-person account of the harrowing sexism teenage girls face in their daily lives, both online and off. Aamna Our film editor Catherine Shoard asks the simple question – if the Baftas film awards organisers had time to cut out political comments about Donald Trump and Palestine, how could they simply not see that a racial slur should be edited, too? Martin Zoe Williams’s interview with royal biographer Andrew Lownie is a fascinating read from start to finish, leaving you wondering how the former prince Andrew was able to operate so openly for so long. Aamna Jonn Elledge rather eloquently puts together how I feel about artificial intelligence: it is a useful tool in some specific settings, but why do I need this information pollutant in every damn app I use? Martin If, like me, you’re sad that the Winter Olympics are over, check out this list of this year’s most wonderful moments from the Games. Aamna Sport Football | Manchester United supersub Benjamin Sesko scored 13 minutes after entering the field to seal a 1-0 win over Everton in the Premier League. Boxing | Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will face each other on 19 September in Las Vegas in a rematch of one of the biggest fights in boxing history. Cricket | England’s planned Twenty20 series in South Africa next January has been scrapped owing to a clash with the domestic SA20 tournament in the latest indication of the growing primacy of franchise cricket. The front pages “Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct over Epstein links” is the Guardian splash, and that’s the theme of the day across all the front pages. “Mandelson arrest sparks jeopardy for Number 10” headlines the i paper, the Telegraph says “Mandelson arrested” and “Things can only get sweatier” quips the Sun. The Times runs “Mandelson arrested over ‘secrets passed to Epstein’”, “Disgraced Lord Held” is top story at the Mirror, and the Mail says “Now Mandelson faces the music”. The FT leads on “Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct over Epstein connection”. Just after 2am, the Metropolitan police said Mandelson had been released on bail pending further investigation. Today in Focus Ukrainian men on how four years of war has changed them A DJ turned soldier explains how life has changed for Ukraine’s men while Tracey McVeigh and Shaun Walker report on the impact of the conflict and what could happen next. Cartoon of the day | Stephen Lillie The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad An astonishing 1.3 million children in Malawi have been vaccinated against polio in just four days after emergency World Health Organization supplies were airlifted into the country. Malawi, one of the world’s poorest countries, declared an outbreak after the virus was detected in sewage in Blantyre, where the only known victim lives. The country had been free of wild poliovirus since 2022. The global fight to eradicate the disease is a battle against the virus and for community trust. In Blantyre’s Ndirande township, the Guardian spoke to young mothers; half knew nothing about the disease, while the other three were wary of the vaccine. However, community organisers, health workers, religious leaders, and traditional authorities are correcting misinformation and reassuring families. Their targeted engagement has seen success: in the remote village of Ndirande, 45 out of 84 initially reluctant households accepted the vaccine for their children. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

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‘The optics are terrible’: wedding guest list in spotlight as violence grips swathes of Nigeria

It has been described as Nigeria’s wedding of the year – and it is only February. This month, five sons and five daughters of the junior defence minister Bello Matawalle married their spouses in an opulent six-day celebration in Abuja. The sheer scale of the extravaganza in the capital prompted one of the comperes to exclaim on Instagram: “First of its kind … @guinnessworldrecords check this out.” The maximalist decor featured cascading crystal chandeliers hung above a mirrored floor in the reception hall. Five vendors were contracted solely to serve water and other non-alcoholic drinks. The guest list read like a roll-call of the political and business elite. At the wedding fatiha on 6 February, the flowing robes of the presidents of Nigeria and neighbouring São Tomé and Príncipe competed for space with those of Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, alongside more than a dozen serving and former governors and ministers. After blessing the couples, the presiding imam prayed that the tenure of Nigeria’s president, Bola Tinubu, “will bring hope to the hopeless”. Hours later, roughly 190 miles away in Benue state, gunmen stormed a night vigil at a Catholic church, abducting nine teenagers who remain in captivity. The kidnappers demanded 30m naira (£16,500) for their release. Meanwhile, in Kwara state, near the border with Benin, a mass funeral was under way for more than 150 people murdered by jihadists four days earlier. Tinubu dispatched an army battalion to Kwara. Yet it was not until the morning of 7 February – four days after the attack – that the highest-profile visitor arrived: the vice-president, Kashim Shettima, who was also a guest at the Abuja wedding. The split-screen contrast cast a harsh light on Nigeria’s interlinked security crises, perpetrated by a range of actors including jihadists and armed gangs locally known as bandits. It also renewed criticism of the government, which was accused of appearing to prioritise the wedding celebration over matters of state. Confidence McHarry, a senior analyst at the Nigerian risk consultancy SBM Intelligence, said the large political turnout as “tone deaf”. Joachim MacEbong, a senior analyst at the Lagos office of the security firm Control Risks, said: “The optics are terrible, but it is what we’ve come to expect from most of our leaders over time. Nigeria’s elite prefer to bolster their political standing by fraternising with each other first, before attending to the needs of Nigerians.” Tinubu’s office has been contacted for comment. In December, Nigeria’s then defence minister, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, resigned his position on health grounds after Donald Trump claimed a “Christian genocide” was under way in the country. The characterisation – long promoted by the US religious and political right – has been rejected by Nigeria’s government and many independent experts, who note that both Christians and Muslims have suffered amid the country’s security crises. Matawalle, who joined Tinubu’s cabinet after four years as governor of the north-western state of Zamfara, one of the hotspots of the security crisis, was passed over for promotion. A former army chief who previously reported to him was named senior defence minister instead. Against that backdrop, the presence of so many senior Nigerian government figures at the wedding seemed incomprehensible. However, analysts suggested the presence of Tinubu and others should be seen in the context of the president’s attempts to court Nigeria’s northern establishment a year out from a general election. While his economic reforms are being hailed by foreign institutions and investors, the benefits are yet to trickle down, especially in the north, where he remains unpopular. McHarry said: “Tinubu as a president is not somebody who is going to do something for you without gaining in terms of political capital in either the short term or the long term. “He understands the fact that the northern elite do not like him as president. And because of the election … he needs Matawalle.” In Kwara, villagers told the Associated Press that no help came during the 10-hour killing spree. “We did not see anybody from when it started in the evening till the morning when it ended,” said Iliyaus Ibrahim, a farmer who lost his brother and whose pregnant sister-in-law was kidnapped along with her two children. There has been no let-up in attacks in the weeks since. On 18 February, police said at least 33 people were killed when Islamic militants launched simultaneous attacks on the Biu community in Kebbi state in the north-west. The next day, armed men killed at least 38 people in the village of Dutse Dan Ajiya in Zamfara state. A local legislator blamed bandits. In the run-up to the 2019 election, Tinubu’s campaign team ran on the slogan “Renewed Hope”, promising to tackle insecurity and deliver prosperity. Analysts say the country’s most vulnerable people are yet to see marked improvement on either front, and a sense of neglect could further erode confidence. “The president could, for example, brief the nation on progress made since he declared a state of emergency on security on 26 November,” MacEbong said. “It is approaching three months since then. An update would be in order.”

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Four years into Ukraine invasion, Russia’s gains are small, while Kyiv remains resilient

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth grim year, has already gone on longer than the entire fight on the eastern front in the second world war. The Soviets marched from the gates of Leningrad to Berlin in a little over 15 months in 1944-45; today the Russian rate of gain in Pokrovsk in Ukraine is 70 metres a day, in Kupiansk, 23 metres, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. The gains are trivial, given Ukraine’s size, amounting to 1,865 sq miles during 2025 (about 0.8% of the country) – so the idea touted by the Russians, sometimes accepted by a credulous White House, that Ukraine is suffering a slow-motion defeat, is not accurate. In reality, even allowing for the fact that hundreds of thousands of homes are without electricity, heating and water after Russian bombing, Ukraine is clarifying its strategy and pushing back with modest success. A Ukrainian counterattack north of Huliaipole, in the open terrain of Zaporizhzhia province, has gained an estimated 40 sq miles this month, taking advantage of the belated decision by Elon Musk’s Starlink to prevent Russian soldiers using the satellite communications system inside Ukraine. It follows on from Ukraine recapturing Kupiansk, in Kharkiv region, in December. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, visited three weeks after Russia said it had captured the town. “The Kremlin is trying to create a narrative that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse,” says Christina Harward, of the Institute for the Study of War. “It’s completely false. What in fact we are seeing are small-scale liberations by Ukraine, taking advantage of winter weather and the blocking of Starlink.” Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that Russia continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw its military from Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and the remainder of the Donetsk (the latest suggestion seems to be the creation of a demilitarised zone, though Russia wants to patrol it). Earlier this month, a Nato intelligence official estimated that they did not believe Russia could capture the region “anytime within the next 18 months” – though it is so urbanised that it could take far longer, at a cost of 600,000 Russian casualties or more. The diplomatic misdirection demonstrates how poorly Russia’s military is performing. Last week, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, became the latest Kremlin official to refer to understandings agreed in Anchorage, a claim that at the August summit in Alaska US president Donald Trump had agreed with Vladimir Putin that Ukraine should be made to hand over the rest of Donetsk without a fight. But if Trump has flirted with the idea at times, it is not a position the US has sought to enforce amid Ukrainian and European objections. Contrast to almost exactly a year ago. Trump and Zelenskyy openly argued in the Oval Office and it appeared the US would end support for Ukraine completely. “The worst-case scenario didn’t happen, though,” said Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine expert at Chatham House thinktank. “The US is selling arms to Ukraine, still supplying intelligence and whatever the pressure, it is not so strong that Kyiv has to concede.” Ukraine, of course, faces considerable difficulties elsewhere. The utility situation is catastrophic after systemic Russian bombing, with more than a million Ukrainians without electricity, heating and water during a cold winter, temperatures have dropped to -20C. In Kyiv, 2,600 buildings are without power or heating, with the worst-affected area being on the eastern left bank. Temperatures drop to 5 or 6C inside apartments, residents say, after a cynical bombing campaign sometimes described as the kholodomor (death by cold). Though the weather is poised to turn for the better , the failure of western allies to manufacture enough air defence missiles is not only obvious, but arguably getting worse. Hopes have been placed on cheap ground-based Shahed interceptors such as Wild Hornets’ Sting missiles, in the frontline from the autumn, but a statistical analysis from the Institute for Science and International Security shows the proportion of armed Shaheds hitting targets increased from 6% last January to 30% in May and remained at 29% in December. Yet, the relentless attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population have so far brought minimal strategic gain for Russia, and it is a curious strategy for Putin to adopt given he notoriously claimed the two countries amount to “one people”. Ukraine’s population may be exhausted but there is still no desire to yield to Russian dominance, never mind hand over the rest of Donetsk. Nor is there any obvious change to the battlefield dynamics in Moscow’s favour. Ukraine, meanwhile, has adopted a more forceful approach. Mykhailo Fedorov, the country’s new defence minister, wants to eliminate 50,000 Russian soldiers a month, an increase from the current casualty rate of about 35,000 a month, of which Nato has estimated 20,000 to 25,000 were killed. It is a stark target, designed to exceed Russia’s current recruitment rate of about 30,000 to 35,000 a month, and force Moscow into a politically risky mobilisation, or even a more realistic diplomatic position. Experts believe the higher target is achievable in theory, though it depends on Russia keeping on attacking. An estimated 80% of casualties are caused by drones, operating to a depth of as far as 15 miles (25km), which effectively prevents either side from massing any more than a handful of soldiers unless under the cover of rain or fog. But Ukraine has also to contend with the sheer exhaustion of so many of its best units and soldiers. Last month Fedorov acknowledged 200,000 Ukrainians were absent without leave, unable to keep up with the strain of staying at the front. The army may not be able to operate at a higher tempo. Jade McGlynn, a research fellow at King’s College, said she feared that Ukraine’s allies had no credible plan to try to force Russia into a ceasefire in a conflict that was essentially deadlocked. “I don’t see a strategy in Europe, and the US has its eggs in the peace process, but there is no process if Russia is not engaging properly,” she said.

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‘What’s up with all these monkeys’: Djungelskog the orangutan comforted Punch – but can the Ikea toy help me?

Standing in line at Ikea’s click and collect service to pick up a large plush orangutan, a wave of fatigue washes over me. Not only because I have been in transit for almost 24 hours after a series of flight delays, and this is my last stop before collapsing in a heap on my living room floor, but also for the reason I, and so many others, have made this journey. It’s to secure the toy that people on the internet believe has brought comfort to an abandoned monkey named Punch at a Japanese zoo, who has gone viral for reasons largely unclear to me. It feels a little like Moo Deng 2.0, but sadder, because this baby monkey has not been embraced by his peers. If not for the plush Ikea toy he had been given by zookeepers, which he grips on to like a life raft, he would be alone and unloved, his days spent avoiding being dragged and chased by older Japanese macaques inside his enclosure. There are different stuffed Ikea toys all named “Djungelskog”. I am here to see if the plush orangutan Punch is so attached to will bring me the safety and security that it seems to have brought him. The soft toy has gone viral in a similar way to its owner. According to eBay Australia, listings of Djungelskog increased by 650% between January and February of this year, and it has been selling at prices between $33 and a whopping $175. A spokesperson for Ikea Australia said there had been a more than 200% increase in sales of Djungelskog in the past week, with more than 990 bought across Australian stores and online. “As global attention continues to build around Punch’s remarkable story, our iconic orangutan soft toy is now experiencing unprecedented demand,” they said. “Fans should get in fast as it is selling quickly.” So unprecedented is the demand that when I arrive at the front desk after rushing from Sydney airport to collect my order, I find Djungelskog has already sold out. I am told it will be back in stock tomorrow. I leave Ikea disappointed, empty-handed and extremely tired. The next morning, I come back early, and a kind Ikea employee brings a Djungelskog to my car. “Everyone has bought one,” she tells me excitedly. “We sold out yesterday and had to call all these stores … I was like, ‘what is up with all these monkeys?’ and then I saw the videos [of Punch] and I’m like, ‘I need one’.” Laughing as if I am not extremely aware of these facts, I clutch my Djungelskog and buckle them into my car. Already, I feel a sense of profound peace wash over me. Perhaps it is something to do with their hauntingly large, vacant eyes. After dropping my car off at home, I wrap Djungelskog around my arms and together we commute to work. I am quietly muttering to the orangutan to help them get a sense of their surroundings. “This is where I work!” I tell them. “We’re hopping into the lift!” The orangutan is extremely soft and is about the size of a real baby. I find myself not wanting to let go. My colleagues gush and ask me what I’m going to call them. “It’s like meeting a celebrity!” one says. For the rest of the morning, Djungelskog sits beside my computer, staring at nothing. It is all extremely cute, and yet I am struck by intense sadness when I watch footage of real-life Punch and his own Djungelskog. It makes me think of a podcast about Keiko, the orca that starred in Free Willy, whose life was akin to a Shakespearean tragedy. Keiko was raised at a sea park in Mexico in a pen way too small for him. After shooting to fame, a massive campaign was undertaken to “free” him back into the wild to be with his own kind. But for his whole life, people had been his companions. Efforts to integrate him into whale pods largely failed, and he died of acute pneumonia in the ocean at just 27, remaining dependent on human care until his death. I don’t know why this monkey was abandoned by his mother, or what conditions are like where he is displayed at Ichikawa City Zoo (though reviews point to small enclosures, and Japanese animal welfare laws are often critiqued as being inefficient). But there is a definite tinge of anthropomorphism to our obsession with Punch on social media that reminds me of the tragedy of Keiko. Seeing the monkey playing with a cute toy, we see something human and childlike that makes us think of ourselves. But this is a wild animal, and its Djungelskog is not real. When I get home this evening, I will embrace my dog, whose excitement to see me when I got home from Ikea was genuine – something Djungelskog, as soft and cute as it is, could never grant me.

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Ukraine war briefing: Russia exporting more oil now than before war despite sanctions – report

Russia’s oil exports decreased last year but the country is still exporting higher volumes than before its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, researchers have said, calling for stricter sanctions enforcement. The volume of Russian crude oil exports remained 6% above pre-invasion levels in the fourth year of the war, despite western sanctions aimed at curbing Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to circumvent western sanctions, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), a Finnish thinktank. But oil revenues – which are fuelling Moscow’s war chest – have dropped below pre-invasion levels, as Russia has been forced to adopt price discounts, the report on Tuesday said. “We’ve seen a significant drop in Russian fossil fuel export earnings as a result of new measures and greater enforcement,” said Isaac Levi, a Crea analyst and co-author of the report. But he added that “there are still significant loopholes and areas that have been unaddressed by sanctioning countries”, allowing volumes to remain high. The report said 93% of Russian crude was exported to China, India and Turkey. Vladimir Putin sought to take over Ukraine when he invaded four years ago but he failed to achieve this and other war goals, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday. In a video address marking the four-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian president also said Ukraine was ready to do “everything” it could to secure a strong, lasting peace. “Putin has not achieved his goals. He did not break the Ukrainians. He did not win this war,” Zelenskyy said of the Russian president. “We have preserved Ukraine, and we will do everything to achieve peace – and to ensure there is justice.” European leaders accused Hungary of sabotaging support for Ukraine on the eve of war’s fourth anniversary, after a defiant Budapest blocked fresh economic measures against Moscow. Germany, France and other EU states failed to persuade Viktor Orbán’s government on Monday to approve the latest EU sanctions package and a loan meant to help Kyiv meet its military and financial needs, reports Luke Harding. Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, described Hungary’s actions as “political sabotage”. The row threatens to overshadow a carefully choreographed display of solidarity between Zelenskyy and his key European partners. Several EU leaders are expected to visit Kyiv on Tuesday, including the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. A man detonated an explosive device beside a police patrol car in central Moscow early on Tuesday, killing an officer and wounding two others, the Russian interior ministry said. The blast occurred about 12.05am (2105 GMT Monday) on Savyolovsky railway station square, the ministry’s said on Telegram. Savyolovsky station, in northern Moscow, is one of the capital’s main railway hubs. The attacker approached traffic police officers sitting in their patrol vehicle and then an explosive device detonated, the statement said, adding that the attacker died at the scene. Authorities gave no immediate details about the explosive or a motive. Britain has announced a new package of military, humanitarian and reconstruction support for Ukraine, including £20m ($27m) for emergency energy support and £30m to help Ukrainian societal resilience and drive accountability efforts for victims and survivors of alleged Russian war crimes. Ukrainian national power company Ukrenergo has said any refusal by Slovakia to extend emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine on demand would have no effect on the country’s power system. The Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico, said on Monday his country’s power grid operator would refuse any Ukrainian requests for emergency supplies until oil flows resumed via the Druzhba pipeline, which runs from Russia through Ukraine to central Europe. Russian drone strikes on the south-eastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia overnight wounded five people including a child, authorities said on Tuesday. The attacks targeted multiple sites, officials said. At one location, a drone slammed into a factory building next to a nine-storey residential block, sparking a fire that spread over 200 sq metres. When the first Ukrainian-designed drone to be made in a German factory was finished last month, Zelenskyy knew it marked a turning point for the economy. With drone-making joint ventures also well advanced in Finland and Denmark, Ukraine has shown how its businesses can adapt and break out of their bomb-threatened domestic confines, becoming more integrated into the EU’s industrial network, reports Phillip Inman. At the war’s fourth anniversary, the Ukrainian economy continues to show resilience under great strain. An explosion on Monday evening in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv wounded seven Ukrainian police officers, authorities said. Two of the victims were in a critical condition after the blast, which came two days after a similar incident in the western city of Lviv denounced by Kyiv as a “terrorist attack” by Russia.

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New Zealand would back removal of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from royal line of succession, says PM

New Zealand has become the second Commonwealth country to back the removal of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the royal line of succession after his arrest on suspicion of misconduct in public office. A spokesperson for New Zealand’s prime minister, Christopher Luxon, said on Tuesday: “If the UK government proposes to remove Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the order of succession, New Zealand would support it.” Luxon later told the media that his government had been in contact with the UK Cabinet Office. “The bottom line is no one is above the law and once that investigation is closed, should the UK government decide to remove him from the line of succession, that is something we would support,” he said. He made the statement after Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, confirmed in a letter to his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, on Monday that he would support the former prince’s removal from the line of succession. Speaking to Nova Adelaide on Tuesday, Albanese said the allegations against Mountbatten-Windsor were “really serious” and he had experienced “quite a fall from grace”. “But he still remains in the line of succession, and I think that Australians don’t want a bar of this bloke, frankly,” he said. The former prince is eighth in line to the throne after Princes William and Harry and their children, despite him having relinquished his royal titles in October after new information came to light about his links to Jeffrey Epstein, the late financier and child sex offender. This means Mountbatten-Windsor is still a counsellor of state, the group of adult royals who could be named to fill in for King Charles if he was ill or abroad. In practice this would never happen, as only working royals are used. The British government is poised to consider laws to strip Mountbatten-Windsor of his right to inherit the throne once a police investigation is finalised. Removing him from the line of succession would require an act of the UK parliament and the support of the 14 Commonwealth countries where Charles is head of state, which includes Australia, Canada and New Zealand. The remaining Commonwealth countries are yet to make a statement on their position. Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest on 19 February is thought to be the first time in modern history that a member of the royal family has been held by police. The allegations against him stem from documents released by the US justice department relating to Epstein and his links to the rich and powerful. Emails released appeared to show Mountbatten-Windsor sharing reports of official visits to Hong Kong, Vietnam and Singapore. Mountbatten-Windsor has always denied any wrongdoing or accusations against him and has not so far been charged with any criminal offence. Buckingham Palace has said it would not stand in the way of plans to remove Mountbatten-Windsor from the royal line of succession. In a statement after the arrest of his brother, the king said the “the law must take its course”.

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Drugs, denial and stigma: the babies and children swept up in Fiji’s HIV nightmare

The night her baby’s heart stopped, Clare* blamed herself. Had she taken her out in the cold too much? Had she damaged her lungs by drinking iced water when she was pregnant? She fixated on Andi’s tiny chest, willing it to suck in air, rushing her to hospital in Fiji for the second time in as many days. All through the early hours Andi* clung to life. Doctors performed CPR several times, puncturing the month-old baby’s chest to insert a drain, removing fluid from around her lungs. “She was really, really sick and they didn’t know what was going on … she was getting weaker and weaker,” Clare says. She sat by her daughter’s bedside. She prayed. Then, doctors asked to do an HIV test. Clare was confused, telling doctors she didn’t have it. She’d already taken a test. No, we mean for the baby, doctors told her. Andi was HIV positive. So were Clare and her husband. During late pregnancy or while breastfeeding, Clare had contracted the virus and passed it to her daughter, who will now live the rest of her life with a chronic disease. “I thought it was the end of the world,” Clare, who is in her early twenties, says. She turned to her husband, an injecting drug user. “He said, ‘No, I’ve been cautious with this.’ I said, ‘I don’t know. We don’t know. So we’ll just have to figure this out, for the betterment of her’.” Clare’s young family is one of thousands caught up in Fiji’s HIV crisis, with new cases more than tripling between 2023 and 2024. More than 1,200 people were diagnosed in the first six months of 2025 alone, the world’s fastest-growing HIV epidemic amid a decline in global aid. The UN says Fiji’s location as a drug-running hub and escalating local methamphetamine use has fuelled the rapid spread, coupled with unsafe injecting practices and lack of access to clean needles. Low health awareness, cultural stigma and inadequate testing and treatment have exacerbated the crisis. It has become a disease of the young and addicted, with half of those who contract HIV thought to have done so through contaminated needle sharing or drug preparation. Now, infections are growing among the most vulnerable: the wave of babies who are being born with – and dying from – complications due to HIV or Aids. The health authorities told the Guardian that one baby a week is being diagnosed with HIV from mother-to-child transmission, with intensive care units seeing an influx of babies needing life support. One child under the age of five is dying every month, says Dr Jason Mitchell, the head of Fiji’s HIV epidemic response, as doctors frantically try to figure out what is wrong with them. “It is the figure that I feel most pained by, because it is preventable,” he says. “It is inexcusable to have any more children born with HIV.” At the edges of this crisis, however, there is some hope. Doctors are among those teaching others that with treatment, comes life; that it is better to seek help than die of Aids, despite the enduring stigma. ‘I’ve seen walking skeletons’ Fiji, an archipelago in the South Pacific Ocean known for its tropical reefs and beaches, has a population of about 930,000. It is a deeply Christian country made up of more than 300 islands, where religion coexists with traditional beliefs. Customary healing and a distrust of western medicine is still commonplace among the iTaukei, or Indigenous Fijians, who make up roughly half of the population. iTaukei are more likely to live in poverty, and make up about 90% of those diagnosed with HIV. “If you’re living with HIV you’re sinful, you’re going to hell, period. Because we’ve been grounded in religious values, that whatever the preacher says about ‘HIV is a sin’ it is seeded in our heart,” says Christopher Lutukivuya, 38, an HIV activist who has been living with the condition since 2013. He has seen friends turfed out of family homes or made to live in basements, and those who prefer to deny they are sick or take their own lives rather than admit they have HIV. He picks up medication for those who do not want to be seen in clinics, and drives people to get tested. “One of the problems we have right now is acceptance. It’s a major issue. I’ve seen walking skeletons, of not wanting to go to the hospital, which has broken my heart.” Those in Fiji working for the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNAids, the UN agency that fights HIV and Aids globally, say the most basic knowledge around HIV is severely lacking. “The sorts of things that were issues in Australia in the 1980s, we’re now seeing in the Pacific,” says Dr Mark Jacobs, the WHO representative for the South Pacific. This includes not knowing about the dangers of sharing needles, the lack of a safe needle programme – which is now being set up by Fiji’s Ministry of Health – knowledge of treatment, and acceptance of condom use. “It’s a degree of naivety, but also because the way the infection is spread can be quite uncomfortable for many people to even think about.” In villages, some leaders spoken to by the Guardian did not know that HIV could be passed from mothers to babies, or said this was the mother’s fault. Many did not know that HIV was treatable – a misconception in cities, too. “I thought it was a death sentence,” says Francine*, an Indo-Fijian woman in her mid-30s who found out she had contracted HIV from an IV-drug-using partner when she was breastfeeding. She would have liked to have used a condom, but says she couldn’t ask. “I’m educated, I know about it, but I can’t negotiate condom use with my partners,” she says. “The power dynamics in Fiji, you cannot.” Young and addicted On the streets of Fiji’s capital Suva, the air is warm, but the nights are fraught. Kids survive here by mugging or being used as drug pushers. Many of them inject the first time they encounter meth; it’s quicker and cheaper, and more of them can get high at once. “Most of the children that we speak with prefer staying on the streets because this is where they get the drugs,” Dr Dashika Balak says. “They are among their friends, and this is where they find what they call love.” Children become addicted to meth as it flows through Fiji on the way to New Zealand and Australia, with transnational criminal syndicates now also targeting Fiji as a market. At the Kauwai Youth Restoration Home, social workers led by the pastor Amani Waqetia work to rehabilitate young people, showing them what life without drugs and fear looks like. Among the young people living here are Isac*, 17, who ran away from an abusive uncle, and Nemaia*, 15, who fell in with the wrong crowd. They both became addicted to meth and contracted HIV through needle sharing. Isac, moving draughts around on a board game at the boys’ home in Suva, says: “I was fit. And after that, I became slim. I lost all my weight. I got it in my body … when we share needles, the bacteria for that person will come to me.”. “I knew that the drugs are bad for my health. I just keep on doing.” He beat the habit, with social workers – many of whom used to live on the streets themselves – focusing on his diet, structured routine, talk therapy, and reintroducing him to society and faith. Now, he is back at school, enjoys playing guitar, and wants to be an accountant. He’s a good sprinter and trains now for athletics. “I just want to change my life, become a better person. Achieve my goals.” Nemaia, who spent two years stealing and scavenging on the street, was brought to the hostel by social welfare after a video in which he shot up another boy using a needle went viral on social media. Sitting beside him now, the pride in social worker Maika Barinisavu’s voice is evident when he says how much Nemaia, once wide-eyed and aggressive, has improved; he’s healthy, at peace, and considered one of the leaders. Finding out he had HIV was scary, Nemaia says, but his daily medication means he can live a normal life,and that’s what he tells the new boys who come in here. “I thought I was going to heaven. I was walking up there. Now I’m feeling fresh.” ‘People affected are completely innocent’ Telling a child they have HIV is a learned skill. Most of them don’t understand, even as their parents cry beside them. “Developmentally, they still don’t really get it,” says Dr Kesaia Tuidraki, the chief medical officer at the sexual and reproductive health clinic Medical Services Pacific. On average, one person with HIV will spread it to ten others, she says – mostly through shared needles. Transmission also occurs through unsafe sex, and rape. Dr Tuidraki routinely gives HIV prophylaxis to rape and sexual assault victims, effective within 72 hours of the assault. Most cases are girls under the age of 18 and can include several members of the same family. “It’s hard to stomach when the people who are impacted by this are completely innocent,” she says. But through Tuidraki’s work, and the work of others, some small shifts are happening. Her organisation has ramped up testing, taking mobile clinics to the streets of Suva and into remote villages. If HIV is detected in early pregnancy, antiretroviral medications can be started so that the disease can become virally suppressed, lowering or completely preventing the risk of transmission from mother to child. Renata Ram, an adviser on the Pacific to UNAids, says along with introducing more antenatal testing and earlier maternity care, it was working with the Fiji government on making Prep – pre-exposure prophylaxis – available in the next six months through tablets, injectables, and a vaginal ring that women can wear in secret. “Most women that are being picked up right now are not injecting drug users, not sex workers. The majority of them are married women who get HIV within their marriage and who do not have much say in terms of their protection,” she says. Ram says the aim of the HIV program is to “reduce harm while we are still working on the human rights aspect of things. These cultural changes take generations, so we are giving women a choice to protect themselves.” After seven months on life support, Andi is a happy two-year-old, a scar on her left ribcage the only clue to the night Clare almost lost her. She takes her lifelong anti-retroviral meds crushed up in juice. But Clare watches her closely; despite being careful, Andi has been in and out of hospital, the last time two weeks ago. “If you want your child to be alive, you just have to follow what they say.” The authorities are expected to upgrade the pandemic threat level to that of a generalised epidemic in the coming months – and while the Fijian government pumped $10m last year into the response, an amount matched by millions in support from Australia and New Zealand, more pressure is needed, Mitchell says. “It cannot just be business as usual.” ‘You can write a new chapter’ Up to 8,900 people are living with HIV in Fiji, according to data from UNAids, a number authorities admit may not reflect the full picture. The 126 official deaths recorded in 2024 are also not considered a representative figure as Mitchell and others tell the Guardian that often in Fiji even when a death is thought to be linked to HIV or Aids, that will not be recorded to avoid bringing shame on patients or their family. In Fiji’s villages, leaders are in no doubt as to what is in store for them all if HIV continues to spread. As the sun sets on a kava ceremony in Nataleira, a village south of Suva, elders talk about the threat; they want to be prepared, to get tested. “I don’t want one of my family members to be affected because that [virus] kills a generation,” says Rusiate Togotogorua, the headteacher of 170 kids at Navunisaa district school. “Not just one, but a generation. It will come.” Not all those in villages like to talk. Some expel those with HIV, but places where those people can be cared for are springing up, too. On the outskirts of Nadi, down the end of a long, rutted driveway in the countryside, a group of women laugh, ribbing each other. They are on their way to a safe house which caters mainly for women, trans women and children who are survivors of drugs, HIV, sexual and domestic violence. On a Monday night in February, there are 68 people there, including 13 kids, and hundreds have been through since it opened in 2019. “This issue is related to everybody,” says Edwina Biyau, a trans woman and former sex worker who founded the Daulomani Safe House after seeing the need for more prevention and support for those living with HIV. “You can say that you’re innocent. You’re not going out. You’re just going to church. But how about your husband? How about your uncle? How about your brother? How about your children? We get frustrated because everyone doesn’t want to be part of it, you know. ‘Oh, that’s for sex workers. That’s for drug addicts.’ But that’s why so many people are dying. Because it’s too late.” When people Biyau suspects have HIV come in, she presents them with Josy Ralulu. A giggly, glowing picture of health, Ralulu is a sex worker who found out she had HIV in 2022 after Biyau urged her to get tested when she had symptoms of what she thought was syphilis. “At first, I was shocked,” Ralulu says. “I thought I was dead. And then the doctor told me, calm down. There’s medication for it that’s gonna make you live.” For Biyau, who the girls here call mother, the only way forward is with love, and with hope. In a culture that’s so close-knit, it’s the only thing she sees working. “You got infected with HIV. But that’s not the end of the world. You know, you can write a new chapter. You can have a new story to tell. This is what happened, and this is hope. You still can live.” *Names have been changed