Thursday briefing: Cutting migration won’t boost British jobs, so what can fix our skills shortage?
Good morning. We will wean our national economy off its reliance on cheap overseas labour. And we will instead have a reformed immigration system that no longer ignores the millions of people who want the opportunity to train and contribute. Lofty goals indeed, but that’s what Keir Starmer pledged in May 2025, in plans that aimed to help the British government “restore control over the immigration system”. To that end, the government’s white paper published last month largely focused on cutting health care visas and ending visa access for middle-skilled professionals such as butchers and chefs. However, new research released yesterday suggests that focusing on cutting migration doesn’t lead to hiring more British workers; meanwhile, up-skilling British people is not enough to plug skills gap shortages, nor to curb immigration. That’s bad news, considering the plans have led to a steep and potentially catastrophic decline in the international workforce, which industry leaders have said could push the NHS into “crisis”. The plans have also been lambasted as immoral, with nurses terrified their families will be torn apart. If the plan won’t curb migration or push recruitment of domestic workers, what can? For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Ben Brindle from the Oxford Migration Observatory, who conducted the research. That’s after the headlines. Five big stories Technology | Deepfake nudes and “revenge porn” must be removed from the internet within 48 hours or technology firms risk being blocked in the UK, Keir Starmer has said. Gaza | More than 75,000 people were killed in the first 16 months of the two-year war in Gaza, at least 25,000 more than the death toll announced by local authorities at the time, according to a study published in the Lancet medical journal. Politics | Labour figures in the county with the highest number of reinstated council elections, after the government’s recent U-turn, have said they fear the party will be “annihilated” when voters go to the polls in May. World | Donald Trump has urged Keir Starmer not to hand the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius, warning he was “making a big mistake”. Economy | Ministers are considering a slower rise in the minimum wage for younger workers, amid fears over rising youth unemployment. In depth: ‘Brits would rather work in the supermarket than take these jobs’
Ben Brindle was one of the researchers who sat down last July to study Labour’s plans to link immigration and skills policy more closely. His research (pdf) found that the plan to target overseas work visas was not likely to result in a reduction in migration. People on work visas make up a small share of overall migration – about 17%, according to Home Office data. Those coming to work in the UK as migrants are much more likely to be on other types of visas such as graduate visas, or non-work related visas. Brindle also found the government’s policies targeted work routes largely unattractive to many British workers, such as jobs in the care and seasonal agriculture industries, with employers highlighting a small proportion of domestic applicants with the necessary technical skills to do these jobs – not to mention the low pay and long training times often required to do them. Brindle references the international health care work visa scheme, which the government shut down in its plans, as one example. “The challenge here isn’t so much that it’s difficult to train people for [care] jobs – that’s a relatively short process that takes a number of weeks. The challenge is that people don’t want to work in the sector in the first place,” says Brindle. “Those roles just aren’t attractive to many Brits, there’s poor pay and poor working conditions, so often when faced with the chance of working a tricky job in the care sector or, say, a job in the supermarket, people will opt for the latter,” says Brindle. *** A crisis in the NHS and social care One institution that will surely be affected by the government’s immigration plans is the NHS. Doubling the time overseas workers will have to wait to qualify for permanent residence, from 5 years to 10, will have a huge impact on health care workers. And for migrants working in jobs below graduate level – which constitute many NHS workers – the wait would increase to 15 years. The NHS runs in large part on immigrant workers, and could be thrown into crisis by the plans. A leaked document in 2023 showed the NHS was already operating with 154,000 fewer full-time staff than it needed, a number which could exceed 570,000 in the next ten years if the problem isn’t fixed. And now unions are raising the alarm that the NHS could crumble under the pressure of Labour’s immigration plans. Migrant nurses come to the UK on graduate visas, explains Brindle, so their recruitment shouldn’t technically be hindered by Labour’s plans. However, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) warns that changes to the route to permanent settlement could impact up to 50,000 nurses. This is also a profession currently facing huge shortages, with as many as 25,000 posts (about 12% of the total workforce) left unfilled even today. The shortage is so severe that nurses have mentioned working while sick and leaving patients to die alone. Beyond that, these policies cultivate a culture of fear that leaves a lasting impact. Last week, we reported on the devastating effect on morale, with nurses and care workers saying they fear their families being torn apart by these policies. Meanwhile, the RCN has painted the policy as a betrayal of the many migrant nurses who came over to take up roles after the pandemic, and now face uncertainty over their futures. *** What’s the solution? I asked Brindle whether his research paper shows that reducing migration, specifically in the way that the government has proposed, is not the most effective way to get more British jobs for British people. “There’s a lot more to this than migration,” he says. He points to the example of welders – one of the industries in which the government wants more domestic workers to be trained up. But there’s a problem here: the UK doesn’t have a public training programme for welders, says Brindle, and a welder working for a private employer earns, on average, £70k a year, while somebody training welders in a further education college earns £30k a year. “When you put it like that, it’s not hugely surprising that there isn’t a queue of people lining up to train welders,” says Brindle. The question remains, if cutting migration won’t work, what will? Brindle says there are various ways to fill vacancies. “The government can improve pay or working conditions to make [undesired] roles more attractive [domestically],” he says, adding: “there is of course training as well, but there needs to be the right conditions for employers to put this all in place – such as more funding for local authorities to raise pay in the care sector.” The government has invested in many policies to increase pay and working conditions, including increasing doctor’s pay, and increasing pay and job progression for graduate nurses. But both of these policies, aimed at people already within the profession, may struggle to make a real dent in the backlog. In nursing, part of the lack of workers can be attributed to the Tories’ scrapping of the NHS bursary in 2017, which provided financial assistance for training nurses. But while Labour criticised this policy while in opposition, even directly linking it to staffing shortages back in 2021, it has announced no plans to replace the bursary. One thing that does look like it could help? Hiring migrants. One programme that did, at least temporarily manage to plug some of the gap in nursing jobs, says Brindle, was the Conservative party’s drive to recruit 50,000 new nurses – a plan which sourced almost all of its nurses internationally. But shortly after it was announced, it was very quickly dropped. “The target was set and then there was this big recruitment drive and once the target was hit, it was like ‘job done’ and then the number of visas dropped off shortly after,” says Brindle. The programme wasn’t perfect – it achieved its target, but failed to fully keep pace with rising demand for nurses, and there was widespread concern over the ethics of recruiting nurses largely from countries at risk of not being able to attend to their own population’s health care needs, due to global nursing shortages. But its success does raise a question – whether more favourable immigration policies, not hostile rhetoric, might be the solution to the NHS’s ongoing staffing crisis. What else we’ve been reading
Oliver Eagleton has a fascinating column here on the ever-loosening definition of populism – while it may well have defined politics in the 2010s, what it truly means now is anyone’s guess. Charlie Lindlar, newsletters team Sumaiya Motara’s excellent piece explores the increasingly ludicrous hoops candidates must jump through to secure low-paid jobs. Spoiler: one involves marshmallows and uncooked spaghetti. Lucinda Everett, newsletters team We always try to sell you readers on these stories, but sometimes the headlines sell themselves, as is the case with this story from Maya Yang: “China’s dancing robots: how worried should we be?” Charlie Elle Hunt’s feature on the internet’s most famous ‘looksmaxxer’, Clavicular, whose profile is growing despite problematic behaviour, is a disturbing but important read. Lucinda For lunar new year, food magazine Vittles has published a stunning ten-part guide to Britain’s Chinatowns. It’s a beautiful, usable project pulled together by Angela Hui and dozens of conspirators, listing the best places to eat and shop across the UK and reflecting on the resilience of these cultural outposts. Charlie Sport
Winter Olympics | Team GB’s curling teams each kept their hopes alive with vital wins on Wednesday. The British women now need to defeat Italy on Friday afternoon. Football | Premier League leaders Arsenal failed to produce a performance worthy of champions last night, drawing 2-2 with Wolves. Football | The anti-discrimination charity Kick It Out has accused José Mourinho of gaslighting for his response to Vinícius Júnior’s allegations of racist abuse during Real Madrid’s Champions League playoff first leg. On Wednesday, Uefa said it would “investigate allegations of discriminatory behaviour”. The front pages
“Sites could be blocked over ‘revenge porn’ and deepfakes” is the lead of this morning’s Guardian. “Do not give away Chagos, Trump tells Starmer” is the splash of the Telegraph, while the Times has “Trump pulls his support for Chagos Islands deal”. “Epstein ‘trafficking’ police in plea for witnesses – as Met examines Andrew bodyguard claims” is the top story for the i paper. The Mail has “Britain faces ‘1936 moment’, defence chiefs warn PM”. The Sun leads with “swig when you’re winning”, and a report that ministers have agreed to extend pub opening hours during the World Cup this summer. “Lagarde to depart ECB helm early so Macron and Merz can pick successor” leads the FT. Today in Focus
The ‘guinea pigs’ who had face transplant surgery Face transplant patient Robert Chelsea and writer Fay Bound Alberti talk through the promise – and darker side – of this pioneering surgery Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The average British woman may change dress size 31 times in her adult life. Having fluctuated between sizes 10 and 14 throughout her forties, Hannah Rochell decided to sell the trousers that were “making [her] feel bad about [herself]” and buy some with adjustable waistbands – “to fit not only my new, fuller self, but other future selves.” Initially championed by smaller independent designers, adjustable waistbands are becoming more common on the high street, with brands such as Cos, Toast and Uniqlo joining the trend. It’s a step in the right direction for body diversity in the fashion industry. Hannah’s trouser collection, which includes a gingham linen, balloon-leg pair, has helped her save money, be more sustainable, and feel better about herself. “The size of my middle can vary wildly on any given day. I no longer need to feel as if I’m losing my mojo when this happens. I don’t want to micromanage my body, but this way, I can regain control of my style.” Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
