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Thursday briefing: ​Will the ramped up rhetoric of Reform bring about the demise of the Conservatives?

Good morning. The murmurs began in May, after the Conservative party’s extraordinary wipeout in the local elections: the 200-year-old Tory party, the most electorally successful party in British history, is dying. Nigel Farage, having broken the grip Britain’s two main political parties held over the country, claimed Reform’s gains were the “beginning of the end” for the Tories. Justine Greening, a former Conservative Cabinet minister, went further, writing in the Guardian that the party was as dead as Monty Python’s famous parrot. “It has ceased to be,” she said, decrying what she described as its strategy of trying to out-Reform Reform. This week, Farage ramped up his anti-Tory messaging and, according to the Financial Times, has been telling donors he expects Reform to do a deal or a merger with the Tories before the next general election. One donor told the FT Farage described an agreement as “inevitable”, despite staunch denials from both sides. On Monday, the Reform leader launched what the Telegraph called “his most significant attack” on the Tories to date, urging voters not to trust Kemi Badenoch – nor to forget that her party oversaw tax rises, spiralling welfare spending and net zero carbon emission rules. To untangle some of these attacks, why they might be resurfacing and whether they are accurate, I spoke to Guardian senior political correspondent Peter Walker and Giles Dilnot, the editor of ConservativeHome. Five big stories UK politics | The safety of patients at Blackpool Victoria hospital was affected because of a culture of systemic bullying and harassment among staff at what is one England’s most scandal-hit hospitals, a damning leaked report reveals. Ukraine | King Charles spoke directly of “Russian aggression” as he hosted Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. After US talks with Vladimir Putin went nowhere, American and Ukrainian negotiators are due to meet in Florida on Thursday. UK news | Parents are considering legal action against a London nursery after a man who passed vetting to get a job there pleaded guilty on Wednesday to 26 offences of sexually assaulting toddlers in his care. Military | A report by the Kenyan parliament into the conduct of troops stationed at a British military base near Nanyuki town alleges human rights violations, environmental destruction and sexual abuse by British soldiers. Women’s Institute | The WI will no longer accept transgender women as members from April after the UK supreme court ruling in April. In depth: ‘They are saying the party is dead because they need that to be true’ Few would argue, even within the party themselves, that the Conservatives are in a good place. Though some remain “bullish”, Peter Walker says some MPs have confessed the Tories are “in a death spiral”. In a piece for ConservativeHome yesterday, Giles Dilnot argued that after assuming the Conservatives “would not and could not” fight back last year, Labour and Reform made separate “devil’s pacts” that they didn’t discuss but acted upon. “Labour would treat Reform as their only threat, and the ‘real opposition’ and Reform would ignore the Tories and tack left to support more public spending,” he wrote, “because ‘having beaten the Tories into oblivion’ their real target was Labour votes especially in the red wall’.” It was predicated on a few key arguments that were untrue, he said, including that the Tories hadn’t changed since 2024 – that they are the same as Labour, or trying to be the same as Reform. It worked for a while, he said, while anger at the last Tory government was raw, few policies were forthcoming and Badenoch was doing badly in her initial PMQs. But, he thinks, the Conservative party has changed. *** Are the Tories facing extinction? Currently, the Tories are hovering around 18% in some public opinion polls – “as bad as it’s ever been”, Peter says, and just a couple of percentage points away from being in fifth place. To that extent, they are in “big, big trouble”, he says. “You currently have polling when you have like, almost five parties have about 15 to 20% or something like that. We’ve never seen such atomisation before.” Dilnot agrees: “The Tories are not in a good position. But they are so definitely not dead. Labour and Reform trying to behave as if it was really just between those two has turned out to be strategically unsound.” *** Could it be counter-productive to claim the Tories are on the way out? Dilnot questions the reason behind the latest attacks on the party. “The Tories have got a mountain to climb, but the idea that they’re dead and therefore irrelevant poses the question: why would you bother if you really believed they were dead and out of the camp?” The more “pantomime” tactics employed by Farage and former party chair Zia Yusuf in declaring them dead, the further from the truth it gets, Dilnot thinks. “They are saying the party is dead because they need that to be true, and they need people to believe it to be true. It doesn’t make any sense, and it is, in fact, a tacit admission that that isn’t the case.” Instead, says Dilnot, “all it does is fire up people who are Tories and remain Tories to go: ‘All right, we’ll show you whether we’re dead or not.’” *** What about Badenoch’s changing reputation? Going into the Tory party conference this October, the popular assumption was that Badenoch could face a challenge, maybe after the local elections in 2026. Now, “Keir Starmer is more likely to go first”, says Peter. While the polling figures haven’t shifted that much, Peter says Badenoch has a “spring in her step”. Many Conservatives believe time is on their side. Her position has strengthened over time, said Peter, and she is doing better at PMQs than in the first nine months. “It’s partly the material she’s got to work with because the government are in a bit of trouble, but she’s found her mojo,” Peter says. The expectation of many Tories is that the “longer it goes on, the more people will look at Reform’s policies and have second thoughts”. “From that point of view, it will be interesting, because with more scrutiny, Reform have to come up with policies showing that they could actually run government,” Peter says. The party, which continues to have “big structural problems”, including the ageing profile of Tory voters, and a lack of activists and councillors, will be keen to hang on to Badenoch because of the chaos and “rats in a sack” reputation for infighting that put voters off the party in the 2024 general election. *** Deal or no deal? As for an electoral pact with Reform, “you won’t find a single Tory at the moment, who’s asking for this or discussing it”, says Dilnot. “Why would you sit down and do a deal with people who want to destroy you?” He says it’s also important to “not put aside the amount to which Nigel and Kemi do not get on”. Peter, returning to the “atomisation” debate, says we are in “uncharted” political territory where no one knows what will happen. “It is possible you could get a combination of Conservatives and Reform with enough MPs for a majority to form a government. Equally, you could have a situation where the only way to form a government would be a Labour, Lib Dem and Green coalition. No one really knows.” A formal coalition is a lot less attractive, given the experience of the Conservative-Lib Dem government in 2010. Instead, he says, we could end up with a “confidence and supply” arrangement, a political arrangement in which a minority government receives the support of one or more parties. For instance “where a party would say to another, well, we’ll broadly support you, and we’ll vote with you on things, but we won’t be formally part of the government”, Peter said. On this point, Dilnot refers to a recent survey ConservativeHome carried out with Conservative party members, which found that in the event Farage became prime minister, a large percentage thought a deal of some kind was inevitable. But he stressed: “What it doesn’t tell you is if that’s what they want.” What else we’ve been reading I don’t want to give any spoilers for the outcome, but Sam Wollaston has been out searching for wild wallabies in the UK. Martin Alaina Demopolous looks into a push to have free water provided in clubs in New York City, where a bottle can cost up to $12. Medics tell her it could make the difference between a safe night out and trip to the ER. Karen For the Quietus, Darran Anderson explores Rupert Hine’s soundtrack to 1978 horror The Shout, thoughtfully touching on the uncanny valley, the foley artist’s craft and why sound may accompany us longest in life. Martin She brought the house down as a stripper in Gypsy and starred in movies with Al Pacino and Jack Nicholson. Now, at 96, June Squibb is playing the lead in Eleanor the Great, Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut. Karen I’m a sucker for big infrastructure projects and striking designs but Oliver Wainwright makes the case here that Norman Foster’s design for JP Morgan’s new HQ is “a bullying affront to the skyline” of New York. Martin Sport Football | Arsenal restored their five-point lead in the Premier League with a 2-0 win against Brentford, but Cristhian Mosquera and Declan Rice were forced off. Ao Tanaka, Jaka Bijol and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were on target in Leeds’ 3-1 win again Chelsea. More Premier League action. Cricket | The second Test has finally begun in Brisbane – follow live. Rugby union | Hosts Australia to face All Blacks in 2027 Rugby World Cup pool as a favourable draw against Wales, Tonga and Zimbabwe provides few potholes for England. The front pages “‘Bullying culture’ harmed patient safety at scandal-hit NHS hospital” says the Guardian. “Review will study rising diagnoses of ADHD” – that’s the Times while the Express decries “Starmer’s ‘mission to crush’ our high streets” which is about business rates. The Telegraph has “Police plan for face ID in every town” while the i claims an exclusive with “Russian spies secretly entering UK on cargo ships”. The Financial Times runs with “Bond investors warned US Treasury of risk in picking Hassett as Fed chair”. “Formula win!” – it’s a “Metro milk campaign victory” on the front of that paper which reports on an initiative to make baby milk more affordable. “Meghan’s father ‘fighting for life’” is the top story in the Mail. The Mirror runs with pictures from “Inside Epstein’s island lair” under the strapline “US paedo probe”. Today in Focus Zack Polanski on the Green party boom Three months into his leadership the Green party membership is surging. Randeep Ramesh explains why Cartoon of the day | Rebecca Hendin The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad London’s Smithfield meat market and Billingsgate fish market have found a new home – Albert Island, a former industrial site in London Docklands. This news comes after the City of London Corporation voted to permanently close the markets last year due to rising costs. The Greater London Authority has estimated the move would generate 2,200 jobs to Newham and £750m in local expenditure in one of the city’s most deprived boroughs. In June, the corporation said it had established a regeneration team to help find a new location for the meat and fish markets, amid plans to turn the markets into new homes and a cultural destination. For more than 800 years, Smithfield has been home to a food market. Two buildings on the site are being redeveloped, and the London Museum is scheduled to open the area in late 2026. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Martin Belam’s Thursday news quiz Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

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‘Embodying the zeitgeist more than ever’: German sitcom character Stromberg revived for Merz era

He’s the middle-manager who talks as if he’s the CEO, a beacon of workplace inclusivity in his own head but a bigoted chauvinist as soon as he opens his mouth. And listening to him creates a mix of familiarity and embarrassment-by-proxy that turns out to be surprisingly pleasurable. Ricky Gervais’s cringe-making general manager of a soul-destroyingly dull Slough-based paper merchant stopped being a regular presence on British TV over two decades ago, but the many comedic characters that he spawned across the globe have outlived him. In Germany, where a feature film based on a German sitcom inspired by The Office opens in cinemas on Thursday, some are even starting to suspect that their own David Brent is now leading the country. The mockumentary sitcom Stromberg launched on German TV in 2004, three years after the start of the British series; its makers denied it was based on the British show until the BBC threatened legal action. It ran for eight years, and the self-aggrandising wisdom of its titular character, Bernd “Let papa sort it” Stromberg, has proven inescapable on social media. German federal elections at the start of this year gave Stromberg meme culture a new lease of life, and not just because the slender physique and partial baldness of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, resembles that of the office authoritarian played by the comedian Christoph Maria Herbst. “They are both boomers to the core and seem to lack any sensitivity to social cues,” said Lukas Lohmer, a German comedy writer for television. “The only difference is that Stromberg realises when he makes a faux pas and often corrects himself.” In recent weeks, Merz elicited fremdschämen (“vicarious embarrassment”), especially among younger Germans, when proclaiming during a trip to Angola how much he missed German bread, or when he asserted upon returning from Belém, Brazil, that “everyone was delighted to be back in Germany and to have left that place”. Like Stromberg, Merz is adamant that he treats women as equals, but cannot stop himself from making comments that seem to suggest otherwise. The Christian Democrat politician, whose cabinet’s top roles are all held by men, told a party conference in 2021: “If I really had a problem with women, then my daughters would have shown me a yellow card by now – and my wife wouldn’t have married me 40 years ago.” That remark formed part of a “Who said it: Merz or Stromberg?” quiz in the Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper earlier this year. Other comments included: “It’s all about equal rights until the ship starts sinking, and then it’s ‘women and children first’” (Stromberg) and “sheer coincidence that all the [meteorological] lows carry female names at the moment” (Merz). On Instagram and TikTok, accounts hashtagged #Strommerz have taken clips of Merz and dubbed them with the TV show’s theme tune, a jazz cover of Aphex Twin’s Flim. In one of them, the veteran conservative is joined in the Bundestag’s lift by a female politician from the Green party. “With us, things are moving upwards,” he greets her. “And now I’m joining you,” she responds. “That makes the lift a bit heavier,” says Merz, to awkward laughter from his entourage. As Herbst said this week: “Stromberg couldn’t have come up with a better line than that.” In this week’s episode of the podcast Schlag und Fertig, the comedian Fabian Köster could not contain his mirth as he presented his latest assortment of the chancellor’s Stromberg-isms: Merz playing to the camera as he waltzes into the chancellory for the first time, announcing: “Right, let’s take up the challenge”; Merz dressing down his social media team for making spelling mistakes on his teleprompter; Merz greeting the European parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, with a flamboyant “Robertaaa”. “You have to say, it’s a completely different vibe than what we had with Olaf Scholz,” said Köster. Merz’s own spokesperson has conceded that at least in terms of his hairstyle, “the chancellor can presumably not reject the comparison”. In all other aspects, he insisted, “the office culture and conversational tone inside the chancellory are clearly different to that in the series”. While Stromberg takes the same workplace mockumentary format as the BBC show, the comedic tone and character traits of the protagonists differ in significant ways. “David Brent is at heart an entertainer who is desperate for applause,” said Lohmer. “Stromberg is an opportunist who yearns for an enviable career.” Whereas The Office is set inside a dead-end business, Stromberg plays out inside a more aspirational insurance firm, Capitol Versicherung AG. The German show is played more as a straight-up comedy and does not stray as far into kitchen-sink realism as Gervais’s and Stephen Merchant’s creation. Yet its plot lines are arguably bleaker, involving a suicide attempt and the death of a main character. “Out of the British, American and German versions of The Office, Stromberg is probably the darkest,” said Kai Hanno Schwind, an associate professor at Kristiania University College, Oslo, who wrote his doctorate on a comparison of the German and the British takes on the theme. “The Office is essentially about failure, and in the British context the biggest failure a character can experience is social embarrassment. In the German context, the biggest failure is not playing to the rules but not being able to subvert them properly either.” This predicament meant that while embarrassing, Stromberg was not always an entirely unsympathetic character, Schwind added. In the German show, there were moments when the audience was laughing not just at but with him. The new film, Stromberg – Wieder Alles Wie Immer (Everything as Usual Again), plays with this double-bind. Set on the eve of a televised reunion of the original cast of the documentary, it has Stromberg super-fans with glued-on goatees gather outside the TV studio and quote his most sexist lines at feminist protesters. Bernd Stromberg appears at first to have found a job at a modern company with shiny offices, though his role emerges as being little more than a marketing gimmick to teach employees about outmoded workplace practices. Yet when he suffers a breakdown on live TV, Herbst’s character is rehabilitated in the public eye. In one sequence, the film’s makers have secured the real-life general secretary of Merz’s CDU to endorse their protagonist with all his dinosaur attitudes. “He doesn’t get everything right, but at least he does it,” says Carsten Linnemann. “The joke about Stromberg was that he was past his his sell-by date even 20 years ago,” said Lohmer. “The scary thing now is that that means he is now embodying the zeitgeist more than ever.”

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Rockets, gold and the Foreign Legion: can Europe defend its frontier in the Amazon? | Alexander Hurst

Above me, a ceiling of rough wooden branches and tarp. To my right, an officer in the French Foreign Legion types up the daily situation report. In front of me a French gendarme named David is standing in front of a table full of large assault rifles, pointing out locations on a paper map. A generator hums. All around us, splotches of forest dot the hundreds of islands that make up the archipelago of Petit-Saut, a watery ecosystem three times the size of Paris. Except Paris is 7,000 kilometres away from where I am, in Guyane, or French Guiana, a department of France in South America, just north of the equator. The size of Portugal but with a population of only 300,000, French Guiana sends deputies to the Assemblée Nationale, votes for the French president and prices things in euros. Administratively, it is no different from Brittany, but this region is home to France’s longest land border – with Brazil – and Europe’s only space rocket launch site. The legacy of European colonisation of the “new world” means that France and the European Union are directly implicated in the fate of one of the world’s most critical havens for biodiversity. Here, in this unlikely fragment of the EU in the Amazon, global crises converge into a paradox: a microcosm of humanity’s failure to deal with the climate crisis and protect biodiversity, despite possessing all the data we need. From French Guiana’s Atlantic coast, the European Space Agency (ESA) launches satellites capable of observing the heating of the planet, the destruction of its forests, the collapse of its ecosystems. But what they see most clearly is the gap between what we know and what we do. Beneath the tree canopy of the Amazon rainforest, illegal gold mining has produced an ecological crisis that is poisoning French citizens. Yet even after two decades and nearly €1bn spent on the deployment of an armed mission involving the Foreign Legion, France cannot bring this activity to an end. The obstacle? A river called the Maroni, France’s border with Suriname, which cuts through sovereignty like a machete, leaving one of the most powerful countries in the world hamstrung. On one side, French and EU health and safety law; on the other, a toxic mining supply chain that operates just out of reach, and with impunity. Fortress Europe? Not here, not by a long shot. * * * ‘This is what we’re after,” David says, handing me a small plastic bottle with a yellow cap. When I grasp it, my hand drops from the weight: mercury is more than 13 times as dense as water. Banned since 2006, because of both the environmental and neurological damage it causes, the toxin is the primary reason why 200 gendarmes and 600-700 soldiers have been deployed in a controversial €55m-a-year military operation across French Guiana relaunched as Opération Harpie in 2008 by Nicolas Sarkozy, then president. The legionnaires, soldiers and gendarmes (French military-style police) are stuck in a loop of “seek, chase, seize, repeat” with small, often-armed groups of garimpeiros – economically desperate, mostly Brazilian, gold prospectors, who use enormous quantities of mercury in pursuit of their dreams of one day striking it rich. It takes me two hours by car from Cayenne, the capital, and then over an hour in a pirogue, a canoe-like vessel with an outboard motor, to arrive at Avant Poste 51 (AP-51), a makeshift jungle camp on one of the islands of Petit-Saut. This is where a detachment of two gendarmes and a dozen legionnaires from the 13ème DBLE string their hammocks every night. Now, I’m observing as they plan tomorrow’s mission. Yesterday, the garimpeiros heard the patrol boat’s motor and fled before the soldiers could get there, David tells me. To avoid that happening again, tomorrow morning he wants to go ahead quietly in a kayak, with the pirogue following a few minutes later. He looks around for feedback from the small group standing around me. They comprise the camp commander, a stocky Frenchman who tells me to call him Chief Nuri; Pavel, the legionnaire boat pilot or piroguier; a lieutenant in the gendarmerie and the other gendarme posted to AP-51. Operating on French soil, the legionnaires can only act with gendarmes present. “If we find a mining site, take my picture with whatever we seize,” Nuri says to me. I tell him that Harpie’s command have warned me not to photograph the faces of the famously secretive legionnaires – these men from anywhere and everywhere who, while in service with the French Foreign Legion, have no other nationality but the Legion itself. Legio Patria Nostra, as goes the motto of the oft-mythologised, elite military unit that has a history of being deployed to difficult places. The 13ème demi-brigade de Légion étrangère (DBLE) in particular, from its formation as part of the Free French forces in 1940, to Indochina in the run-up to the Vietnam war, Algeria in the 1950s and 1960s, and more recently the Sahel when Mali requested French assistance against jihadist groups in the desert in 2013. “To hell with that,” Nuri says. “I didn’t give the Legion the rights to my image. Take my picture. But not now, not when I’m sweaty and wearing Crocs.” The French army lieutenant, on the other hand, is definitely not wearing Crocs. His boots are polished, and the knots holding up his hammock are the expert kind with a name. He exudes order and discipline that contrast with the surprisingly laid-back nature of the legionnaires. We’re not to be messed with, their vibe seems to say. And so, to a certain point, we do as we please. With the sun beginning to set on the camp, there is just enough time left to clumsily string up my own hammock, shower in the lake (“All my men shower in the lake, so you too, no exceptions,” the lieutenant tells me) and eat dinner (chicken in a thin stew, cooked by two legionnaires from Nepal). During the night, a low rumble cuts the air like the forced breath of something possessed. In another era, I would think demons stalked the forest from somewhere across the reservoir lake. “Howler monkeys,” the lieutenant says, his hammock a few feet away, the knots perfect, his boots hung upside down on two wooden posts. There’s a humidity in French Guiana that seeps into everything – wood, concrete, skin. Morning beneath the tree canopy is already hot, and the night-time howler monkeys have been replaced with a low-level shriek: the high treble of whistling frogs and a cascade of insects. “L’hygiène, c’est important,” the lieutenant – clearly a stickler even in these unsanitary conditions – insists again as he steps away from his hammock to brush his teeth, his southern French accent as punchy as his obvious scepticism towards the knots I’m now fumbling to untie. By the camp’s dock, the legionnaires are loading bottles of drinking water into the pirogue. At the lieutenant’s insistence, they’re all wearing their standard-issue life vests – though by the end of the day, everyone, including me, has thrown them off because it’s just too hot. I climb in and we depart, trailing the kayak. “Drink, even if you don’t feel thirsty,” David tells me. Half an hour later, the pirogue nears the target spot; David and a legionnaire get in to the kayak and row away. Ten minutes later, another pirogue approaches in the distance, sees us, does a hasty about-face, and runs. Pavel guns the motor, but the other boat, with only three people on board, is lighter and faster. Eventually we find it, half-hidden and overturned, the remains of the garimpeiros’ would-be lunch bobbing in the water. As the legionnaires jump out of the pirogue to give chase on land, the lieutenant hands me a bulletproof vest and warns me to not break away from the single-file line. Several French soldiers have died since Harpie began in 2008, including two during a clash with miners in 2012, and another while crossing river rapids this year. And in 2022, the Guardian journalist Dom Philips was murdered, alongside indigenous rights advocate Bruno Pereira while reporting on mining, poaching and drug-trafficking in the Javari valley, in the Brazilian Amazon. In the jungle, there is no path. Someone at the front has a machete. Towards the back of the line, I sweat, stumble, try to keep up with the sometimes-run, sometimes-scramble. It’s pushing past 30C, which feels like even more in the humidity and the vest. Over an hour later, we’re back at the overturned pirogue. The legionnaires flip it over, confiscate the motor, tow it to a marsh, where we leave the miners’ boat and two soldiers – just in case the garimpeiros circle back. Then we are off to a different island to search on foot for the same group of prospectors. But for hours, there’s nothing more but a ceaseless sun and the overturned boat, which the legionnaires puncture holes in and sink. Returning to camp in the boat, I try to find out more about just who joins the French Foreign Legion in the 21st century, and why. Some are talkative, others are extremely guarded. The Legion has a reputation, at any rate, for taking people seeking to escape an old life and gain a new one. One of the Nepalis tells me he saw a documentary, and that the money is good. Another says the Legion was more accommodating of a hand injury than the Gurkhas. Paulo, a Brazilian, hit his time limit in the Forças Armadas do Brasil and wanted to keep working as a soldier, but won’t say much more. A legionnaire from Mali would rather tell me about the chilli peppers he’s planted at AP-51 than previous missions he’s been on. As for Chief Nuri, he’ll stay in the Legion as long as he can, he says. By the time we get back to AP-51, it’s near evening. I’ve had six litres of water, but despite thinking I’ve adhered to David’s morning advice, I have a headache anyway. I almost make it out with my dignity intact, but just before boarding the pirogue that will take me back to normal life, heatstroke drops me to my knees and I puke. “Don’t vomit in the pirogue,” the lieutenant says. I cringe. * * * The first French settlers of la France équinoxiale, as they called the colony, arrived in 1503. The colony then changed hands multiple times, with the Dutch bringing the first slaves in 1676 during a brief period of control. The French Revolution abolished slavery a century later in 1794, Napoleon brought it back in 1802 and the Second Republic reabolished it for good in 1848, freeing some 13,000 people in French Guiana. For a century, the territory was used by France as a prison colony, or dumping ground for politically inconvenient citizens. Captain Alfred Dreyfus was incarcerated in the notorious penal settlement of Devil’s Island, off the coast of Kourou, in 1895 after being convicted of treason. The ex-convict Henri Charrière’s 1969 account of brutality in the same jail in Papillon, a bestselling book later made into a film starring Steve McQueen, seared it into the consciousness of a generation. Perhaps the fame of the Île du Diable is why so many – including Jean Castex, the former French prime minister – still mistakenly think that French Guiana is an island. (The Cayenne-born jazz legend Henri Salvador probably did his birthplace no geographic favours when he released Dans mon Île in 1957.) The first, fevered gold rush engulfed the region in 1858, and 170 years on the prospectors’ extraction method has barely changed. They dredge sediments from riverbeds or boreholes, pump in water and add mercury, which binds to gold particles and forms an amalgam, which sinks. Then they sift out the pieces of amalgam, burn away the mercury to discard the slurry, and reveal a nugget of pure gold. Mercury vapour enters the atmosphere and the contaminated mud enters the water system and the food chain, causing serious health problems, and development issues in infants and children. Today illegal prospectors still number between 6,000 and 7,000, working across roughly 600 mining sites. In the eight months since AP-51 (one of many such camps) was established, the gendarmes and legionnaires have sufficiently suppressed illegal mining activity that it’s become tough to find. For Harpie’s commanders, “success” is in having “stabilised” mining at these levels, despite gold tripling in price since 2018. Others are less convinced. In 2020, a member of the French parliament representing the territory led an inquiry into why the illegal gold panning situation was still “such a disaster”, despite Sarkozy’s insistence nearly a decade earlier that stamping it out was a “national priority”. After a visit to the region a year later, a parliamentary delegation criticised the “insufficient” means allocated to enforcement. Far from Paris’s political squabbles, a question hangs heavier than mercury. With economic incentives to mine anywhere and everywhere, what kind of ecological devastation would there be without Harpie? But success and failure is also tallied in the real and present impact from mercury and mining – on the jungle, the river and the people who rely on both. * * * Aimé Césaire, a poet from Martinique and member of the French parliament, and Gaston Monnerville, the Guyanais grandson of a slave and former president of the French Senate, were among decolonisation activists who campaigned in the first half of the 20th century, not for independence for French Guiana, but for full status as a part of France. When the territory became a full French “department” in 1946 (along with Martinique, Guadeloupe and Réunion), it was the realisation of that long-held goal. In 2010, 70% of voters rejected a shift towards greater autonomy. And attachment to EU membership is stronger here than it is in most of France’s other regions. But income levels in the Amazonian department are only half of what they are in the “Hexagon”, the six-sided shape of France that sits on the European continent. This is roughly comparable to the ratio between the poorest and wealthiest US states, or between Paris and its most economically depressed banlieue. And often, the attitude from Paris towards French Guiana can feel like that of the core to the periphery: exacerbated by present-day plans to build, in this former prison colony, a new detention facility to house high-security inmates from metropolitan France. Within French Guiana, the core is the coast, where 90% of the population lives. In the Haut-Maroni region in the interior, the inhabitants are largely Bushinengue – the descendants of escaped slaves who fled Dutch and French plantations and established isolated, free communities deep in the jungle along the Maroni River. It feels like the periphery. * * * From the window of Air Guyane Express’s Czech-built, 15-seat turboprops, the Amazon rainforest looks like an enormous head of broccoli. Endless and indivisible. Except every now and then there appears a rust-coloured scar on its face: a pockmark of deforestation where the garimpeiros, the prospectors, have clearcut and savaged the earth, leaving it polluted and desolate. There are no roads to Maripasoula, a town of 8,000 on the Maroni River, but it has an airport. Getting farther south to Taluen, to find out how the Wayana community – one of French Guiana’s five original Amerindian populations – is affected by illegal gold mining means a journey by pirogue. This tough geographic reality shows up in prices: a bottle of water costs twice as much as in the capital, Cayenne. A Wayana man in a baseball cap waits at the river, next to a silvery pirogue. “Al-Qaida,” he says, hand outstretched, grin on his face, bemusement on mine. It is a nickname, I learn later, from his time in the French army, in Afghanistan. Once again, the sun blisters everything – but before I can burn too much, Marie Trémolet from the World Wildlife Fund arrives, along with two local fish-farming consultants and Aïmawale Opoya, the chief of Taluen, the largest Wayana town. Dry season has just begun, which means the water level in the Maroni is beginning to drop. In 2024, climate change made parts of this already shallow, rapids-filled river temporarily impassible, leaving the Wayana pincered between the macro polluting effects of carbon and the micro effects of mercury. Of the two, they feel the impact of the mining most keenly. “The garimpeiros have polluted everything,” says Aïmawale. “The rivers, the forest, the game, the fish.” Only a few minutes downriver from Maripasoula, nature erupts. Awara palms with their thick spikes. Iridescent blue flashes of morpho butterflies beneath the canopy. The red eyes of black caiman crocodiles that glower back flashlight beams in the night. Home to 1,800 tree species, 96% of French Guiana is rainforest. In fact, Maripasoula, Taluen and a host of other towns lie within the protected area of the Parc Amazonien de Guyane, the EU’s largest national park, which stretches across 34,000km2 – an expanse bigger than Belgium. When the reserve was created in 2007 with the agreement of French Guiana’s Indigenous populations, it was with the understanding that making this “protected land” would bring illegal mining to an end. Every now and then, Aïmawale and “al-Qaida” gesture towards the shore, pointing out signs of gold panning. Here, you can see and taste the destruction mercury wreaks in the Maroni River and the criques sprawling around it in the rusty, metallic quality it imparts to the water. As we swerve from one side to the next to navigate the river, I begin to understand why Operation Harpie is necessary, but sisyphean. The problem is that on the Suriname bank of the river, all of this happens in the open, unenforced. The equipment, the mercury, the sifting through and jettisoning of earth. The commercial supply points on the Surinamese side – there are 120 “storefronts” run by Chinese shopkeepers along the river, according to a 2023 estimate – make no effort to hide. Red metal walls and droopy porches overhanging the river, where groups of thin, bare-chested men sit drinking beer and liquor. Video displays show grids of rectangular video feeds from an assortment of security cameras. Rows of prepackaged foodstuffs sit alongside plastic goods made in China, with mining materials stuffed into corners. “The mercury is usually in a back room, out of sight,” Marie tells me. The storefronts don’t just sell equipment and purchase gold, they have recently moved into a “sharecropping” arrangement, taking a percentage of everything mined. From the pirogue, the Maroni looks murky with mining contamination. “Before, fish was the major part of our diet,” Aïmawale says. “Now, when it rains, the river looks like milk. We can’t let our children bathe or swim in that …” Wayana communities have to venture further and further to find clearer water and fish that they hope are less contaminated. Sometimes, they brave the indignity of buying processed foods or chicken from the Chinese storefronts. It’s a situation that leads to “a fair amount of diabetes, hypertension, and otherwise poor health”, says Lisa Michard, a nurse who has worked at Taluen’s health clinic. If a new fish-farming project for Taluen goes well, fish will maintain its place in the Wayana diet, but in a way that is tragic adaptation, rather than a real solution. * * * In Taluen, we string our hammocks in the dimming light, my knots as amateur as ever. The first night we are served chicken; the second, fish. When we see the pot of fish, Marie and I exchange a glance and a grim half-laugh at the irony, though we know a single meal is relatively innocuous. Shortly after I arrived in Taluen, eight French cities, including Paris, announced that their public schools would no longer serve tuna in lunchrooms out of concern for mercury levels. As for the Wayana, the French regional health authority’s recommendation is to restrict fish consumption to no more than once a month. In 2024, Linia Opoya, who is married to Aïmawale, brought a lawsuit against the French government, alleging that France had failed its legal duty to protect citizens and the environment. The health problems that plague the community range from learning disabilities to memory loss, concentration problems, damaged eyesight, pins and needles in the limbs, and a loss of physical strength, she says. Later, in Taluen’s communal tukusipan, Patrick Touenké, chief of all the Wayana, gets visibly frustrated when I ask him about the mining. “We’ve been talking about the mining situation forever and nothing changes,’ he says, with the tukusipan’s maluwana – an intricately painted disc that maps Wayana cosmology – looking down from above him. 2009 was the last time the Wayana confronted the miners directly, with barricades on the river. That was just after the French government launched Harpie, which Aïmawale – who has himself participated in Harpie missions in the past as a reservist in the gendarmerie – calls “insufficient”. Linia goes further. “Harpie destroys the miners’ equipment, then two days later the miners are back,” she says. For three or four days after a mission, the water clears up, and then the miners resupply on the Surinamese side of the river and restart. What’s needed are regular patrols of the river, she says, and a permanent Harpie presence in the area – something like AP-51. “I grew up drinking from the river,” Linia reminisces – a relationship with the natural surroundings that her 15-year-old son will never know. Even if all gold mining stopped tomorrow, experts from the national park told me, each contaminated Amazon waterway would take 200 years to return to its former state. On my final night in Taluen, as I adjust my body in my hammock, something cuts through the quiet, the peace, the calm, the wisp of the Milky Way. Not a howler monkey this time, but an insect. It sounds almost precisely like a buzzsaw. * * * A burst of light in the dark. I watch, as 5km from the viewing site, the Ariane 6 rocket lifts off, steadies, streaks upwards above its launchpad. Twenty seconds after the earth seems to exhale a new sun, the sound hits – as if the air itself were ripping. The Ariane 6 programme represents Europe’s independent access to space, and this particular rocket carries a meteorological satellite over a decade in the making: Metop-SGA1. Primarily a weather satellite, SGA1 also carries a compact moral proposition, a collection of sensors called Sentinel-5, designed to see what human beings have become so good at ignoring. Methane slithering out of oil and gas fields, carbon dioxide stewing above continents, the exhaust of our species. It was Charles de Gaulle who decided to build a spaceport in Kourou in 1964, to replace France’s former launch site at Hammaguir, in the Algerian desert. With Algerian independence approaching, Kourou, another former penal settlement, offered advantages: at the equator, the Earth’s rotation naturally assists a rocket’s boosters, and provides both a launch trajectory over open ocean rather than inhabited land and stable weather conditions. Now jointly managed by the French space agency and ESA, the spaceport anchors thousands of jobs directly and indirectly, and accounts for at least 15% of the departments’s GDP. In 2021, this is where the ESA sent the James Webb space telescope – which astronomers are using to hunt for new planets and look further back in time, by seeing fainter and more distant light than anything else on or of the Earth – into orbit around the sun. Near Kourou, at Paracou research station, researcher Ariane Mirabel stands in front of a towering tree with a buttressed trunk. This arbre cathédrale has been tagged, measured, and will be measured again every one, two or five years, just like 70,000 other trees on various plots of land at Paracou. It’s the most extensive tree-identification and tracking project in the world, and ESA satellites need the data to estimate the quantities of carbon stored in the forest. This rainforest that I’ve seen from the air and from pirogues, whose humidity I’ve felt on foot, is part of the Guiana Shield – a swathe of the Amazon that stretches from Colombia to French Guiana and northern Brazil, and which is crucial to moistening, lifting and steering the atmospheric “rivers” that form over the Atlantic and move south to the Andes. The portion of forest that lies in French Guiana is among the least disturbed by human activity in the world, explains Mirabel, in part because of how few people live there. What the canopy data says about the immense Amazon rainforest is grim. A year ago things were dire, but perhaps bending towards hope. The EU had been leading the way in emissions reductions; China, long a source of emissions growth, was also the driver of the energy transition towards wind and solar; and in the US, the Biden administration had finally shifted national policy in support of real progress. Cop30 brought negotiators to Belém, to the edge of a rainforest under assault in every imaginable way: carbon emissions, clearcutting for soy and cattle, access roads for drilling sites, poaching, logging, illegal mining. On our current climate crisis trajectory, in the near future the Amazon will cross a tipping point and dry out into a savannah. That would cause the forest to release nearly a decade’s worth of carbon, turn millions of square kilometres into a probable fire plain, unleash new potential pandemics and devastate South American agriculture. The Earth and its forests inhabit a timescale beyond our own, and so none of us – not our children, our grandchildren, or their grandchildren – will ever see this reversed. Forget recreating any of this, says Mirabel, when “we don’t even understand how the existing forest fully works”. From Sentinel-5’s elliptical circuit 832km above the Earth, borders look meaningless. On the ground, they’re anything but. For years, France has sung the refrain of “strategic autonomy” to its European neighbours, insisting that the EU acquires the ability to act with full independence in any number of domains, including space. Ariane 6 is a key component of this – autonomous access to space at a time when Donald Trump’s war against renewables and on behalf of fossil fuels is a war on our ability to even know. At a time when his administration is preparing to order that Nasa terminate the US government’s only satellites purposefully designed to measure greenhouse gases, the EU, which spends €12bn a year on space, has an additional responsibility to collect and safeguard climate data, says Simonetta Cheli, ESA’s director of Earth observation. ESA can track methane plumes, calculate carbon stored in the forest, or even spot the clearcut scar of a mining site – but nobody seems able to put a stop to the 20 pirogues a day that, Linia Opoya says, pass by Taluen loaded with mining equipment. Sovereignty is double-edged: in Kourou, France invokes it at both a national and European level every time a satellite lifts off and into orbit. On the banks of the Maroni, the same principle impedes France from tackling a problem that stretches from one sovereign space into another. On the other hand, is France, with the full weight of the EU behind it, really incapable of putting a stop to the mining supply chain violating one of its borders and putting its citizens at risk? During its most recent overflight, the Parc Amazonien, which draws 70% of its personnel from Amerindian communities, observed 176 mining sites – the highest number yet – within its territory. “On one side, we have a powerful, cooperative neighbour, and on the other side, a narco state,” says Yann Saliou, deputy director of the park. Without cooperation from Suriname, he continues, ending mining along the Maroni would require a gendarme behind every tree. For decades we’ve had the data, and the best recommendations of scientists; we know that we’re destroying something that exists beyond our brief human timescale. From high above and far away, the world is blue and green. On the ground, we attribute enormous value to a shiny metal with little intrinsic utility, while being systematically incapable of valuing and protecting the ecosystems that sustain us. If conflicting sovereignty can’t be coordinated across a waterway often narrow enough to hurl a stone from one side to the other, what chance is there that the view from 832km up – no matter how precise – will save what is already slipping away? Alexander Hurst writes for Guardian Europe from Paris. His memoir Generation Desperation will be published in January 2026

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New Zealand assembles for opening of its first Ikea store

“I’ve been waiting 25 years for this,” says Annie Sattler. A quarter of a century after she emigrated from Germany, and seven years since the store was first announced, Sattler was prepared to wait just a few hours extra to be among the earliest through the doors of Ikea’s first outlet in New Zealand. She was joined by hundreds of shoppers queueing on Thursday morning to mark the end of the national waiting game. Ikea was founded more than 80 years ago – and now has more than 400 stores worldwide – but the Swedish furniture giant had until now been absent from these shores, making New Zealand one of the last developed nations to get a store. Sattler, who grew up with family trips to Ikea to furnish her childhood bedroom, says the opening event reminds her of home. “It was such a treat. I loved it – the staff, the furniture, the whole story of it.” The store was announced in 2018, with foreign minister Winston Peters at the time taking credit for the move, saying he was sure his decision to open an embassy in Stockholm had played a part. By Thursday, excitement had reached fever pitch, with one local media outlet running a live blog and signs appearing along major roads warning motorists to “plan their journey” accordingly. By 9am, solid lines had formed at the two main entrances, although one queue member, there for the spectacle more than the shopping, described it as “a bit of a fizzer”. However, others said they would have camped overnight if it hadn’t been banned in advance, and Ulla Bennet – wearing a Denmark football jersey under her Swedish flag throw – was at the front, having established a “pre-line” outside the property boundary at 4am. “We thought it would be like it is now at 6am, but people didn’t really start arriving until six or seven,” she says. In the end, the long-promised traffic jams failed to materialise, but a steady stream of shoppers continued to arrive as the 11am opening neared. As local media assembled, beaming their reports live into morning TV, the awaiting customers spoke of their excitement to try Ikea’s iconic meatballs, with one group chanting “meatballs, meatballs” at a nearby reporter. ‘New Zealand is always the last to get anything’ Bennet sees the opening as a sign of global recognition. “New Zealand is always the last on the list to get anything. Every other country gets things but [companies] think ‘Oh, they’re little and way down there’. But they’re here! I’m rapt!” The opening is a significant event for a country grappling with a sharp cost of living crisis. Ikea’s global pitch of affordability lands amid a squeeze on household budgets, with year-on-year Black Friday spending having fallen by 4-6%. Keen to amplify any whiff of economic optimism, New Zealand prime minister Christopher Luxon arrived to cut the ribbon. As the doors opened, Luxon, who was meant to be the first customer, lost the honour to a faster shopper. The crowds were greeted by staff in bright yellow T-shirts who alternated between genuinely enthusiastic cheering and well-practised chants of “Hej! Hej! Hej!”. The sight of shoppers piling trolleys high with cushions, lamps, and storage solutions suggests that for many, the novelty and promise of value outweighed the wider economic gloom, at least for today. The company has signalled competitive pricing, with its Billy bookcase advertised at NZ$99 (£43), undercutting most local competitors. After the initial rush, Luxon denied the opening was a slap in the face for local small business owners, many of whom are struggling in a stalled economy. He told journalists it was “great for competition and great for consumers” and he was confident local businesses would “stand up and compete”. The launch’s scale is a statement of intent, with a full online shopping network and 29 collection points from Kaitaia in the North Island to Invercargill down south. But for a nation accustomed to waiting, the era of Swedish self-assembly has, finally, begun.

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Half of Europeans see Trump as enemy of Europe, survey finds

Nearly half of Europeans see Donald Trump as “an enemy of Europe”, rather more rate the risk of war with Russia as high and more than two-thirds believe their country would not be able to defend itself in the event of such a war, a survey has found. The nine-country poll for the Paris-based European affairs debate platform Le Grand Continent also found that nearly three-quarters of respondents wanted their country to stay in the EU, with almost as many saying leaving the union had harmed the UK. Jean-Yves Dormagen, a political science professor and founder of the polling agency Cluster17, said: “Europe is not only facing growing risks, it is also undergoing a transformation of its historical, geopolitical and political environment. The overall picture [of the survey] portrays a Europe that is anxious, that is deeply aware of its vulnerabilities and that is struggling to project itself positively into the future.” The polling found that an average of 48% of people across the nine countries see Trump as an outright foe – ranging from highs of 62% in Belgium and 57% in France to lows of 37% in Croatia and 19% in Poland. “Across the continent, Trumpism is clearly considered a hostile force,” Dormagen said, adding that this perception was hardening, with fewer people than in December 2024 describing Trump as “neither friend nor foe” and more as definitely hostile. However, Europeans still view the relationship with the US as strategically important: when asked what position the EU should adopt towards the US government, the most popular option (48%) was compromise. The survey in France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium and the Netherlands also found a relative majority (51%) felt the risk of open war with Russia in the coming years was high, and 18% considered it very high. Dormagen said such a result “would have been unthinkable just a few years ago and signals the shift of European opinion toward a new geopolitical regime in which the possibility of direct conflict on the continent is now widely accepted”. View varied strongly according to proximity to Russia, with 77% of respondents in Poland considering the risk of war to be high, compared with 54% in France, 51% in Germany, 39% in Portugal and 34% in Italy. Confidence in national military capabilities was low everywhere, the survey found, with 69% of respondents across the nine countries saying they thought their country was “not really” or “not at all” capable of defending itself against Russian aggression. French respondents were the most confident, but it remained a minority opinion at 44%. In Poland, which shares a border with Russia, 58% were not. Dormagen said: “We are entering an age of danger while feeling a persistent sense of national weakness.” Feelings of vulnerability were widely shared, the survey found, with only 12% of respondents saying they did not feel particularly threatened by a raft of sources of insecurity ranging from technological and military to energy and food. Although there were significant national differences, tech and digital security was the most frequently cited threat (28%), then military security (25%). There was strong demand for European help, with 69% of people saying the EU should play a protective role. The vast majority of respondents across the nine countries backed EU membership: 74% said they wanted their country to stay in the bloc, with that sentiment highest in Portugal (90%) and Spain (89%) and lowest in Poland (68%) and France (61%). Five years after Brexit, the UK’s decision to leave is overwhelmingly seen as a failure: 63% believed it had had a negative impact on Britain and just 19% thought it had been positive, including 5% who saw it as very positive.

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Ukraine war briefing: Stop wasting the world’s time, Putin told

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, has demanded Vladimir Putin “stop wasting the world’s time” while the UK foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, said the Russian president “should end the bluster and the bloodshed” and sit down to negotiate peace. Margus Tsahkna, the Estonian foreign minister, said it was “pretty obvious” that the Kremlin was not interested in peace as European leaders reacted on Wednesday to apparently fruitless talks in Moscow between US envoys and Putin. In Britain, King Charles spoke directly of “Russian aggression” as he hosted Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The monarch said both countries “together stand with Ukraine and bolster Europe against the threat of further Russian aggression”. The king has strongly supported Ukraine’s fight since the outset of the Russian invasion. His latest remarks may prick the ears of Donald Trump, who, after once haranguing Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, drastically changed his tune, at least for a time, after Charles indulged the US president with a state visit and impressed upon him the broader importance of Ukraine’s defence. The king also met Zelenskky directly after Trump and Vance humiliated Ukraine’s president at the White House. Trump on Wednesday continued to loosely preside over attempts to strike a peace deal. In vague remarks the US president said the path ahead was unclear though talks between his envoys and Vladimir Putin had been “reasonably good”. Those talks failed to produce any breakthrough or visible progress. Trump said Putin would like to make a deal but “what comes out of that meeting I can’t tell you because it does take two to tango”. The US had “something pretty well worked out [with Ukraine]”, Trump continued. The Kremlin said Putin accepted some US proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine but “compromises have not yet been found”. Donald Trump’s special envoy, the real estate dealer Steve Witkoff, and the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, will meet with top Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov in Florida on Thursday. The Romanian military said it blew up a maritime drone that was endangering navigation in the Black Sea and claimed it was a Sea Baby used by Ukraine’s security forces. Ukraine’s SBU, which runs covert warfare operations, said all of its Sea Baby drones active in the Black Sea region were accounted for, with none lost or in Romanian waters. Ukraine’s military general staff announced recent strikes on Russian targets including an oil depot in Russia’s Tambov region; a Black Sea observation post on an oil rig; and Russian Orion drones based at the Saki airfield in illegally occupied Crimea. Damage of two oil tanks was confirmed after the Livny oil depot in the Oryol region of Russia was hit on Tuesday. In other battlefield updates, the Ukrainian military said it had pushed Russian forces back to the northern outskirts of Kupyansk in Kharkiv oblast, north-eastern Ukraine, and created a “kill zone” hampering the invaders’ return. The Institute for the Study of War meanwhile said Putin had exaggerated Russia’s claimed seizure of Pokrovsk as strategically important. “ISW has not observed evidence to confirm the complete Russian seizure of Pokrovsk, but Russia’s seizure of the town in the near future is unlikely to produce rapid Russian advances.” The Ukrainian military has denied completely losing Pokrovsk. The Associated Press said drone footage showed Myrnohrad, near Pokrovsk in eastern Donetsk, was largely in ruins and nearly surrounded by Russian troops. Britain and Norway will jointly operate a warship fleet to hunt Russian submarines in the north Atlantic. The aim is to protect undersea infrastructure such as cables that western officials say are increasingly under threat from Moscow. Britain’s Ministry of Defence reports that sightings of Russian vessels in UK waters have increased 30% in the past two years. The European Commission will move ahead with funding Ukraine using a loan based on Russia’s frozen assets, write Jennifer Rankin and Shaun Walker. But in a concession to concerns raised by Belgium, which hosts most of the assets, the EU executive has also proposed another option: an EU loan based on common borrowing. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Wednesday the two proposals would ensure “Ukraine has the means to defend [itself] and take forward peace negotiations from a position of strength”. EU leaders will be asked to decide on the options later this month. The UN general assembly has called for the immediate and unconditional return of Ukrainian children “forcibly transferred” to Russia. The assembly adopted the non-binding resolution by a vote of 91-12, with 57 abstentions. Russia was among the states rejecting the measure. Ukraine accuses Russia of abducting at least 20,000 Ukrainian children since the start of the conflict in February 2022. On Wednesday the Russian ambassador was represented by an empty chair after failing to show up at a US Senate hearing about the children. Australia and New Zealand will become the first non-Nato countries to contribute to a fund buying critical military equipment for Ukraine. It includes a A$50m contribution to Purl – the “prioritised Ukraine requirements list” under which Nato buys arms for Ukraine from the US. Australian Defence Force supplies and weapons worth $43m will also be donated including tactical air defence radars, munitions and combat engineering equipment. An extra $2m will be provided to help Ukraine with advanced drone technologies. It brings Australia’s total support to more than $1.7bn since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. In the coming weeks, the final group of 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks gifted by Australia will be delivered. Australia has also sanctioned a further 45 “shadow fleet” ships that Russia uses in attempting to evade sanctions on its oil exports; and aimed financial sanctions and travel bans at more than 1,180 people and 293 entities. Australia’s foreign minister, Penny Wong, said due to the government’s actions, direct Australian imports of Russian energy products had fallen from $80m to zero. However a sanctions “loophole” has allowed Russian oil products refined elsewhere to find their way to Australia. Wong has called on Australian businesses to ensure their supply chains do not indirectly fund the Russian government.

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Path to peace in Ukraine unclear, says Trump, as US envoys prepare to meet Kyiv official

The path ahead for Ukraine peace talks is unclear, Donald Trump has said, after what he called “reasonably good” talks between Russian president Vladimir Putin and US envoys which nonetheless failed to achieve a breakthrough After their hours-long meeting at the Kremlin on Tuesday, US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, were set to meet top Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov in Florida on Thursday. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump said Putin would like to make a deal, but “what comes out of that meeting I can’t tell you because it does take two to tango.” The president added that the US had “something pretty well worked out [with Ukraine].” The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Putin accepted some US proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and was prepared to keep working to find a compromise, but that “compromises have not yet been found”. Both sides agreed not to disclose the substance of their discussion at the Kremlin, but at least one major hurdle to a settlement remains; the fate of four Ukrainian regions Russia partially occupies. A Russian official told reporters that “so far, a compromise hasn’t been found” on the issue of territory, without which the Kremlin sees “no resolution to the crisis”. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out giving up territory that Russia has captured and on Wednesday said his team was preparing for meetings in the United States, adding that dialogue with Trump’s representatives will continue. “Only by taking Ukraine’s interests into account is a dignified peace possible,” he said. Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha, took a stronger line, urging Putin to “stop wasting the world’s time.” The negotiations have intensified at a difficult juncture for Kyiv, which has been losing ground to Russia on its eastern front while facing its biggest corruption scandal of the war. Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, who had led the Ukrainian delegation at peace talks, resigned on Friday after anti-corruption investigators searched his home. Meanwhile Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine has gathered pace and Putin has said that Moscow is ready to fight on to seize the rest of the land it claims if Kyiv does not surrender it. “The progress and nature of the negotiations were influenced by the successes of the Russian army on the battlefield in recent weeks,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, who took part in the US-Russia talks, told reporters. In November, a leaked draft of a US peace proposal emerged, alarming Ukrainian and European officials who said that it was weighted too much in Moscow’s. The proposal would have seen Ukraine cede territory to Russia, Russia readmitted to the G8 and Ukraine banned from joining Nato European countries then came up with a counter-proposal, and at talks in Geneva, the US and Ukraine said they had created an updated and refined peace framework to end the war. Putin on Tuesday accused European powers of trying to sink the peace talks by proposing ideas which were absolutely unacceptable to Moscow, while also issuing threats that Russia was ready for war with Europe if it started one. Ukraine and its European allies have in turn accused Putin of feigning interest in peace efforts, with UK foreign secretary Yvette Cooper saying on Wednesday that Russia should “end the bluster and the bloodshed and be ready to come to the table and to support a just and lasting peace”. “What we see is that Putin has not changed any course. He’s pushing more aggressively on the battlefield,” Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said at a meeting of European Nato foreign ministers. “It’s pretty obvious that he doesn’t want to have any kind of peace.” Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said Ukraine’s partners will keep supplying military aid to ensure pressure is maintained on Moscow. On Wednesday the European Commission also announced it would move ahead with controversial plans to fund Ukraine with a loan based on Russia’s frozen assets. In a concession to concerns raised by Belgium, which hosts most of the assets, the EU executive has also proposed the option of an EU loan based on common borrowing. EU leaders will be asked to decide on the options later this month, as Ukraine faces a looming funding crunch. Elsewhere on Wednesday, the UN general assembly for the immediate and unconditional return of Ukrainian children “forcibly transferred” to Russia. Ukraine has accused Russia of abducting at least 20,000 Ukrainian children since the start of the conflict in February 2022. The assembly adopted the non-binding resolution by a vote of 91-12, with 57 abstentions. Russia was among the countries rejecting the measure. With Reuters, the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse

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King Charles decries ‘Russian aggression’ in pledge on defending Europe

The UK and Germany are ready to “bolster Europe” against the threat of further Russian aggression and both nations “stand” with Ukraine, King Charles said as he hosted the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The visit comes at a difficult time for Europe in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and will aim to underscore the Kensington treaty signed in July – the first formal pact between the UK and Germany since the second world war – which sets out plans for closer cooperation on migration, defence, trade and education. At a state banquet at Windsor Castle, Charles acknowledged the UK and Germany had “experienced the darkest of times, and the most terrible consequences of conflict”, but decades later “the acknowledgment of past suffering has become the basis for an honest friendship, renewed and redoubled”. The king spoke of “the shared values” of the two countries, and “shared vision for the future of our modern world”. He added that the two countries “together stand with Ukraine and bolster Europe against the threat of further Russian aggression”. Steinmeier, sitting next to the Princess of Wales, said that the two countries were “working together to strengthen once again the human ties that have been weakened by Brexit” as he praised the Kensington treaty. He also echoed the king’s words about tensions in Europe, telling the guests: “We are working together to promote security and defence, side by side for a free, peaceful Europe, side by side in support of Ukraine.” Earlier Steinmeier was welcomed with military pomp, a 41-gun royal salute and a celebratory oversized Royal Standard flag flown above Windsor Castle. The king and Queen Camilla accompanied the president and his wife, Elke Büdenbender, on a carriage ride through Windsor’s streets at the start of the three-day visit, which will also see the German leader pay a poignant visit to the ruins of Coventry cathedral, bombed during the second world war. At 10 Downing Street, ahead of private talks with prime minister Keir Starmer, Steinmeier said the UK-German relationship was in “far better shape” than in the “difficult” post-Brexit period, and relations had improved with the Kensington treaty. “We have a new security situation in Europe, if not in the whole world. So therefore there is a need of closer cooperation,” he said. Starmer said the two countries had “worked very, very closely on hugely important issues like Ukraine, where our two countries think alike and act alike, on issues of migration and on economic growth and trade, where we go from strength to strength”. For the first time in modern history, there was a Christmassy feel to the state banquet, with the table decorated in festive deep red poinsettias and bright red berries, and mini fir trees inside St George’s Hall, which boasted a six-metre Christmas tree featuring 3,000 lights and echoing a German tree tradition popularised by Queen Victoria and Prince Albert. German supermodel Claudia Schiffer was seated next to Starmer. Her film-maker husband Sir Matthew Vaughn, movie-score composer Hans Zimmer, Strictly Come Dancing judge Motsi Mabuse, and The Gruffalo children’s book illustrator Axel Scheffler, were on the 152-strong guest list. In a nod to the king’s guests, the Princess of Wales diplomatically opted for Queen Victoria’s Oriental Circlet Tiara, made of diamonds and rubies, which was designed for Victoria by her German-born husband Prince Albert in 1853. A black forest gateau cocktail was created specially for the occasion. The menu consisted of tartlet of hot smoked trout with langoustines, quail eggs and shellfish sauce; Windsor partridge supreme wrapped in puff pastry with confit cabbage and port sauce. For dessert was a baked alaska with blackberry, vanilla and raspberry ice-creams. The wine list diplomatically included a German white wine – Joh. Jos. Prüm, Graacher Himmelreich, Spätlese, 2010. In the traditional exchange of gifts Charles presented the president with a handmade walking stick from the Isle of Mull and a decorative slipware plate, and in return received an umbrella and a specially made cheese. Anti-monarchy campaign group Republic accused Thames Valley police of an attack on free speech claiming protesters were threatened with arrest if they held a “Charles, what are you hiding?” banner as the state visit procession passed through Windsor, a reference to the Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor controversy. Thames Valley police said, in response they had “facilitated a peaceful protest” and officers had “asked them to step back to our designated protest area” and had stopped them using a loudhailer when horses were nearby.