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French PM booed on visit to wildfire-affected region as EU sends assistance to Belgium and Spain – Europe live

I’m still following the French PM Sébastien Lecornu’s visit to regions hit by last month’s wildfires in France. Speaking at a press conference in Gironde, Lecornu promised the French state would work on rehousing those affected and fast-track planning permissions to allow for the quickest possible reconstruction of properties damaged by last month’s major wildfires. He said the government would step in to help residents get payouts from insurance companies and target firms deliberately stalling on claims. The PM also promised €12m in immediate aid for Gironde and Landes – the two departments hardest hit by the blazes – alongside tax and social contributions relief for affected businesses.

Kushner meets Netanyahu in Jerusalem following Hamas talks – Middle East crisis live

Israeli soldiers have stood guard as bulldozers demolished a Palestinian building in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Authorities cited the apparent lack of a building permit to justify the destruction in Qalandia, south of Ramallah.

Senior Russian banker fired after scathing speech on wartime economy

The chief economist at Russia’s second-largest bank has been fired after a series of critical comments about the state of the economy, including warnings that Moscow would not win a prolonged economic war with Ukraine. Andrei Klepach, who had served in the role at the state-controlled development bank VEB since 2014, was fired days after Russian media reported on a scathing speech he had delivered to fellow economists in May. In the remarks, first reported by the Moscow Times, Klepach said Russia was “falling behind” China and the US economically, and “in some respects, Ukraine”. Klepach said pressures on Russia’s economy due to the war would inevitably lead to a “social crisis” that would erupt “when no one particularly expects it”. He also said expectations of an imminent Ukrainian economic collapse were misplaced and that a prolonged standoff with Ukraine would not lead to Russia’s victory. “We will not win this competition in a war of attrition with Ukraine,” Klepach said. “We have an illusion that everything will collapse there. It hasn’t collapsed, and it won’t. Our costs are growing.” The comments were a rare acknowledgment from a senior Russian economist of the country’s mounting economic struggles and directly contradicted Vladimir Putin’s claims that Moscow was successfully weathering the economic pressures of the war and that Ukraine’s economic exhaustion was only a matter of time. VEB did not offer a reason for Klepach’s firing. An acquaintance of Klepach told the business outlet Vedomosti that his departure from the bank was “connected to his personal, harsh assessments of the country’s economic and political development, which cannot possibly align with the corporation’s position”. The independent Russian outlet the Bell reported, citing sources, that Klepach was fired on orders from the Kremlin and that his dismissal was directly linked to his May address. Klepach’s dismissal highlights the Kremlin’s growing insistence on loyalty within Russia’s upper ranks, amid reports that Putin has increasingly surrounded himself with officials reluctant to challenge his views. Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to the Russian central bank and a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, described Klepach as a respected economist who was unafraid to voice views that diverged from the official line. “Klepach’s dismissal – he is one of Russia’s best macroeconomists – is unlikely to delay the looming crisis he has been warning about,” Prokopenko said. She said Klepach’s forecasts were “based on assessments of reality rather than a desire to please anyone” and were often more pessimistic than the official figures. Russia’s economy is facing its most difficult period since the start of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, strained by massive wartime spending, western sanctions and Ukraine’s growing ability to strike at Moscow’s oil and gas industry. In the first four months of 2026 alone, Russia’s budget deficit hit 5.87tn roubles ($81bn), well above the government’s 3.79tn-rouble target for the entire year. Some of Putin’s closest advisers have privately warned him that the current level of wartime spending is becoming unsustainable, according to two sources with knowledge of the discussions. Recently, Ukrainian strikes have hit dozens of warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s largest e-commerce retailer, destroying billions of dollars’ worth of stock. The attacks have raised questions about the company’s financial stability and dealt a severe blow to thousands of independent sellers who depend on the platform for their livelihoods. Putin has given no indication that he is prepared to scale back the war or rein in spending. Instead, the Kremlin has sought additional revenue by raising taxes on smaller businesses and putting pressure on oligarchs to contribute more towards the war effort. Russia’s finances have been bolstered by this year’s surge in oil prices after the US war in Iran, providing Moscow with billions of dollars in additional revenue and helping cushion some of the mounting economic pressure.

Trump orders cuts to South Korea joint drills despite warnings about Kim regime

Donald Trump has said he is scaling back joint US military drills with South Korea aimed at deterring North Korea, despite military officials from both countries warning that Kim Jong-un’s regime is learning new battlefield tactics from the Ukraine war. The drills under Ulchi Freedom Shield, one of two major annual exercises held by South Korea and the US, start on Monday and run until 27 August. They were expected to involve about 18,000 South Korean troops, alongside US forces and personnel from 11 of the 18 member states of the United Nations Command (UNC), the multinational body that oversees the 1953 armistice that halted hostilities of the Korean war. However, on Sunday evening, the president said he was “not happy” with US participation “based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong-un”. He added that they were costly and “send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a country that, as long as Donald J Trump has been president, has been unthreatening and respectful”. Trump added that it was too late to cancel the drills so he had ordered the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, to “substantially reduce” them. He also said South Korea had refused to help in the “denuclearisation of the Islamic republic of Iran”. South Korea’s presidential Blue House said it was reviewing Trump’s post and “hopes that the friendly relationship between the US and North Korean leaders will lead to meaningful dialogue between the two ⁠countries, opening discussions aimed at advancing peace and stability on the Korean peninsula”. The allies would continue coordinating on their combined defence posture and military exercises, it said. On Saturday, Trump also shared an old photo of him posing with the North Korean leader on Truth Social, repeating his claim the two “get along great”, leading to speculation he would renew his attempt to have a summit with Kim. Trump has previously suspended major US-South Korean military exercises in pursuit of diplomacy with Kim. After his first summit with the North Korean leader in 2018, that year’s Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise was cancelled, while other drills were suspended or scaled back. The exercises were subsequently redesigned and resumed in modified forms and names. Cheong Seong-chang, the vice-president of the Seoul-based Sejong Institute thinktank, said Trump could go further if he meets Kim again, potentially deciding to suspend the exercises altogether or reduce US troop levels without consulting South Korea. He said the US-South Korea alliance remained “extremely important” but argued that Seoul should gradually reduce its security dependence on Washington and move towards securing its own nuclear deterrent capability, an idea that has broad public support in South Korea despite being rejected by the government and opposed internationally. However, Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, cautioned that downsizing the exercise would “slow the process of South Korea taking on greater responsibility for its own defence, and weaken deterrence against possible conflicts in Asia”. “The cost savings from downsizing drills are marginal, while the diplomatic benefits for relations with North Korea are doubtful,” he told Agence France-Presse. Lim Eul-chul, a North Korea expert at Kyungnam University, added that Pyongyang was unlikely to be moved by Trump’s announcement. “The North will only view it as meaningful if the joint exercises are cancelled in their entirety rather than scaled back. It has little reason to see this as meaningful.” Last week, South Korean and US military officials said they would incorporate into the drills lessons drawn from North Korean troops’ increasing battlefield experience in Ukraine, including new drone tactics. North Korea has deepened military ties with Russia since the two countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership pact in June 2024, seeing Pyongyang provide troops, artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles to support Moscow’s war in Ukraine. At a joint briefing, Col Ryan Donald, the public affairs director for the US-led commands in South Korea, said this year’s scenario would reflect “drones, GPS disruption [and] cyber attacks”, threats he linked directly to North Korean soldiers who have deployed and fought in Ukraine as part of Pyongyang’s military support for Russia. “They’ve taken those lessons they learned there and brought them back to North Korea, that changes the DPRK capability,” Donald said, referring to North Korea’s formal name. “Our training accounts for that threat, that is why the exercise looks different [from previous exercises], and over the last five years it’s continually evolved.” Speaking to the Guardian at a separate briefing, Lt Gen Scott Winter, deputy commander of the UNC, said the threats being countered “reflect the increased use of these technologies and the understanding that North Korea has contemporary battlefield experience”. “We’re very conscious that North Korea has used this as an opportunity to test a number of its ballistic missile systems,” he said, adding that this year’s drills would be “bigger and better than ever”. More than 14,000 North Korean troops have fought alongside Russian forces in the Kursk region, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has warned that Russia is preparing to receive 30,000 more. The two countries are also close to completing the first road bridge ever built between them, over the Tumen river, which one open-source investigation concluded functions more as a military logistics corridor than a trade route. Russian state media says it is expected to open in September. In the days before the exercise were due to begin, North Korea test-fired ballistic missiles, in what analysts read partly as a protest against the drills. On Friday, North Korea’s foreign ministry called the exercise “a rehearsal for an aggressive war”, warning it would “respond to a new level of a threat with a new level of a deterrent”. The warning is typical of the rhetoric Pyongyang deploys ahead of major US-South Korean drills. Officials have repeatedly described the exercise as “defensive” in nature. Chun In-bum, a retired lieutenant general who commanded South Korea’s special forces, highlighted the importance of preparing in a timely manner for capabilities that will be required to prepare for new challenges ahead. “This is a very serious improvement in North Korean capabilities. And we should not take lightly this threat environment.”

Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo now deadliest in country’s history

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is now the deadliest in the country’s history with at least 2,325 people dead, according to government data, surpassing the toll from the 2018-20 outbreak. The DRC’s public health institute said confirmed cases had risen to 4,945, including 101 detected in the previous 24 hours. The World Health Organization has said the outbreak is on track to surpass west Africa’s 2014-16 Ebola outbreak as the biggest in history. The 2014-16 outbreak resulted in 28,616 cases and 11,310 deaths across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, according to WHO data. On Friday, the UN warned “Ebola is winning in the Democratic Republic of the Congo” and said the epidemic was killing one person every 30 minutes. Six of DRC’s 26 provinces have been affected, mainly those along the country’s north-eastern border. More than 3,400 of the cases have been recorded in Ituri province, where the outbreak was first reported. The latest numbers of confirmed cases of Ebola in the DRC have made this outbreak, the 17th in the country’s history, the fastest growing in the known history of the virus. It took almost five months for the 2014-16 west Africa outbreak to reach 1,000 deaths, compared with more than 2,000 deaths in less than three months in this outbreak. There are no approved vaccines or treatments yet for the rare Bundibugyo strain of the virus that is responsible for the current surge in cases. Clinical trials of two possible treatments for the strain began last month in Ituri. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general, said last week that two vaccines developed specifically for Bundibugyo were now being tested on people. Thomas Parisch, a public health specialist recently deployed to the DRC with Médecins Sans Frontières, said: “Normally, as an outbreak progresses, the case fatality ratio should fall as contact tracing improves and patients are identified and treated earlier. “Instead, we’re still seeing many cases detected very late, when treatment is less likely to succeed, with many identified only after they die in the community.” Uganda has reported at least 20 cases, all in the capital, Kampala. The last case reported there was on 21 June and no community transmission has been recorded. In May, the outbreak of the disease in the DRC and Uganda was declared a public health emergency of international concern by the WHO. However, it said sequencing show the virus had started months earlier, in February. Ebola is transmitted to people from wild animals and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, including dead bodies, and with contaminated surfaces and materials such as bedding or clothing. According to WHO, symptoms can include fever, fatigue, malaise, muscle, pain, headache and sore throat. These are followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain, rash and symptoms of impaired kidney and liver functions.

Monday briefing: What can Andy Burnham learn from Spain’s Pedro Sánchez?

Good morning. To international onlookers, Pedro Sánchez appears to have achieved the impossible. Where other European leftist and left-ish premiers have flopped and flailed, the Spanish PM has endured. Since June 2018, Sánchez has ruled from Madrid, implementing a raft of progressive policies. More recently, he has emerged as a leading, and often lone, left-wing European voice on the global stage, striking a defiant tone on everything from the Trump administration’s war in Iran (“the smokescreen of war to hide their failure”) to Israel’s actions in Gaza (“exterminating a defenceless people”). The fact that the international press has nicknamed him El Guapo (the handsome one) can’t hurt. At home, however, it’s a more complex story. Sánchez’s inner circle is in the midst of a damaging corruption scandal, and polling has his traditionally centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE) faltering. Meanwhile, recent scenes in Ceuta and apocalyptic wildfires throw up thorny policy challenges. European leaders have publicly turned on Sánchez – and this is with a general election looming next year. But just like the UK’s own prime minister, while Sánchez has carved out a name for himself, he was not always the left-wing figure he is seen as today. For today’s First Edition, we ask: who is the real Pedro Sánchez? And, what lessons can Andy Burnham learn from his tenure? Madrid-based journalist Eoghan Gilmartin helps us answer these questions. Before that, the headlines: Weekend roundup UK economy | The UK should expect to see a new cost of living crisis, with official figures released this week by the ONS expected to show how soaring energy bills drove up inflation close to 3% in July. Ceuta | Moroccan police arrested 111 people this weekend, who were trying to enter Spain’s north African territory of Ceuta, amid tightened security on both sides after social media posts called for another mass crossing. Jason Arday | The University of Cambridge has defended its mental health support for the academic Jason Arday. UK politics | Andy Burnham is being urged to protect 4 million gig economy workers, who thinktanks warn miss out on key statutory rights including: parental leave, redundancy pay and protection against unfair dismissal. Indonesia | Rescue crews dug through collapsed buildings and landslide debris in eastern Indonesia on Sunday, searching for bodies after a powerful earthquake killed at least 51 people, and injured more than 100. In depth: The art of political reinvention Andy Burnham and Pedro Sánchez share similar origin stories. Both initially entered, then departed, their respective parliaments having failed to achieve their ambitions; both returned, and subsequently secured the top job, after quiet reinvention. We know the Burnham story now: the former Blairite minister lost out on the Labour leadership, and instead became mayor of one of the UK’s largest cities, where he emerged transformed thanks to his vaguely articulated philosophy – Manchesterism. Sánchez too wasn’t always the progressive figurehead he is today. The former economics professor was first elected PSOE leader in 2014, firmly a centrist. “He was the compromise candidate between left and right,” says Gilmartin. “There were few expectations of him at the beginning.” His first stint at the party’s helm ended in 2016, after a series of electoral drubbings and a messy internal revolt saw him forced out by party grandees. And so marked the start of his remaking: 6ft 3in Sánchez squeezed into his Peugeot and road-tripped across España. “I’ll get in my car and travel all round Spain to listen to those who haven’t been listened to, to the grassroots members and left-wing voters,” Sánchez said. Sánchez understands that anchoring his party to the left … is where he can govern. Beyond Madrid, he morphed into an anti-establishment, man-of-the-people figure. By the summer of 2017, he was PSOE leader again. He formed a government in June 2018, and has been PM since. “He’s not necessarily a committed left-winger,” says Gilmartin, “but Sánchez understands that anchoring his party to the left and positioning himself as the leader of a wider progressive bloc is where he can govern. He’s a very impressive pragmatist.” In 2019, to shore up support from the left, Sánchez pledged to implement hundreds of progressive policies. And he has broadly delivered on this agenda: investing heavily in renewables, hiking up the minimum wage, extending abortion rights, banning so-called “gay conversion practices”, capping rent increases and raising taxes on the super-wealthy while reducing the tax burden on lower earners. *** Home and away That’s not to say Sánchez’s leadership has been smooth sailing. A series of corruption scandals involving his brother, wife and predecessor have emerged, many of which the PM had dismissed as “politically motivated smears.” Other confidantes have also been accused of taking kickbacks. Meanwhile, his minority coalition government can’t muster much support; they’ve not managed to pass a new budget since 2023. PSOE has lost a string of recent local elections. Ever the pragmatist, Sánchez shifted focus to the international. In the last year or so, Sánchez really took on Trump. He refused to approve the US military use of jointly operated bases to strike Iran, stating: “You cannot answer one illegality with another, because that is how the great catastrophes of humanity begin”. Spain formally recognised a Palestinian state in 2024, with Sánchez labelling Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide”, and described Europe’s broader response as a “failure”. “His foreign policy has taken on a much more important role, showing that [he leads] a government with life,” says Gilmartin. Despite being a social democrat, he has embraced his reputation as the voice and conscious of the international left, hosting, in April, a star-studded left-wing jamboree in Barcelona to reinvigorate international progressive politics. All of this has helped coalesce support at home, though it hasn’t yet bolstered his domestic popularity significantly. *** A winning formula Eight years in, it’s no great surprise Sánchez’s popularity is on the wane. But his 2023 electoral success is worth considering. In the run up to that vote, he was on the brink of defeat. The right-wing People’s Party led the polls, with far-right Vox primed to come in third. It seemed a right/far-right coalition beckoned. But says Gilmartin, “by framing the vote as him against the far-right,” Sánchez was able to turn the tide, pointing out all the policy gains and social protections that would be under threat otherwise. Starmer tried this, too, in his 2025 Labour conference speech. But his vision of “patriotic national renewal under the Labour party … or the toxic divide and division of Reform” didn’t land. Starmer couldn’t communicate a coherent vision. He failed to point to policies that voters would miss. “Polarising against the right works for the centre left if you deliver on cost of living and other material issues,” says Gilmartin. Else, you’re left with the empty progressivism of say, Hillary Clinton taking on Trump. “That’s been proven to not be enough.” *** So, what are the lessons for Burnham? Burnham knows he has to deliver, with less than three years before the next general election. It looked initially that he might be bold on policy: announcing his intent to end homelessness on day one. But since then, (and in fairness, Burnham did take the reins right before a summer recess), he has gone rather quiet. And on both immigration and the environment – two major wedges between progressives and much of the right – he has said almost nothing at all. Sánchez took a different tack. One of his first acts as PM was allowing the Aquarius to dock in Valencia: the ship carrying 629 people rescued off the coast of Libya that had been turned away from Italy and Malta. Since then, Sánchez has moved to regularise undocumented migrants in Spain. After 72,000 mostly Moroccans crossed into Ceuta last month, Sánchez didn’t pander to the right, or bow to pan-European pressure. The results are clear: despite recent increases, Spanish people remain relatively unconcerned about immigration. In January, only 3.9% of Spaniards felt immigration was the biggest issue facing Spain; in June, it was 4.8%. Similarly on climate, Sánchez hasn’t held back. Where Burnham banned BBQs, Sánchez declared “climate change kills”. He’s spending billions on the green transition while Burnham dithers on north sea drilling. “There’s no sense here that you apologise for being proactive and progressive on climate,” says Gilmartin. In occupying this space, Sánchez has gobbled up the left-wing vote. Sumar, Sánchez’s left-of-PSOE coalition partners has dropped in the polls. When Sánchez first became PSO leader, further-to-the-left Podemos was polled up to 26%; today, it’s hovering at 3%. Burnham might do well to learn from this: because while Starmer made attacking the left a defining feature of his time in office, Labour lost almost four times as many voters to the Greens than to Reform in the 2026 local elections. For now, the wait continues to see if Burnham will prove a progressive PM, or at least an impressive pragmatist. The week to come Monday | Nominations close for candidates seeking to replace Anas Sarwar as Scottish Labour leader. Tuesday | Opening arguments expected to begin in a lawsuit brought by multiple US states against Meta about social media addiction. Thursday | Students in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland will receive their GCSE results. What else we’ve been enjoying Anna Moore’s deep dive on why women are expected to have hysterocopies without pain relief is brutal and important. Poppy Noor, deputy newsletters editor I’ve spent this heatwave-y summer feeling like a toddler sweating in sticky T-shirts and shorts. These insights from fashionistas about how and why they dress made me excited to wear grown up clothes again, weather-depending. Michael Emine Saner’s interview with Su Pollard is a must-read this morning. I particularly enjoyed all the funny stories of famous people she’s met. Poppy Sport European Athletics Championships | Amy Hunt became the first to win four titles at a single event, while Dina Asher-Smith hit a record 11 European medals total. Football | Mikel Arteta said his Arsenal players demonstrated their hunger to defend the Premier League title in their Community Shield triumph over Manchester City. Cricket | Manchester Super Giants triumphed in the final of the men’s Hundred, surviving a late wobble to beat Trent Rockets by five wickets. The front pages “Boost special needs internships to tackle youth jobs crisis – Milburn”, is the Guardian’s front page. The Times has “Disability claimants would swap cash for help”, the i Paper says “Thousands of new homes set to be built as Rayner tears up rules on green belt” and the FT writes “Dimon warns Healey not to raise bank taxes or risk driving finance jobs away”. Elsewhere, the Telegraph’s splash is “Russia’s secret bases threaten Nato”, the Mail leads on “Paedophile fireman used loophole to keep changing his identity”, and the Express has “‘We’re entering a golden era for dementia research’”. The Mirror says “‘Murder by dog’”, and the Sun’s splash is “Call this justice?”. Lastly, Metro, on water bills writes “Water cheek!”. Today in Focus The super-producer who made an album from his hospital bed James Ellis Ford been described as the music industry’s secret weapon; a producer loved by artists such as Arctic Monkeys, Pulp and Jessie Ware. In 2024, he was diagnosed with leukaemia and it all ground to a halt. With contributions from Jarvis Cocker and Jessie Ware, Nosheen Iqbal hears how making music from his hospital bed helped Ford through one of the hardest periods of his life. Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad The celebrated Cinerama dome is set to reopen in 2028 after five years closed, reports Matthew Cantor, in a hopeful sign for LA’s cinema culture. The historic 1963 theatre became a symbol of the struggles facing moviegoing after the Covid pandemic, prompting a grassroots campaign to save it. Its reopening comes amid a broader resurgence at the box office, driven by younger audiences, social media and a renewed appetite for communal experiences. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv could hit Russia with domestic ballistic missiles in months, former defence minister says

Ukraine could be capable of striking Russia with domestically made ballistic missiles in three to six months, the former Ukrainian defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov has estimated. Kyiv has so far relied mostly on long-range drones and cruise missiles for deep strikes against Russia, but attacks with ballistic missiles will be far harder for Russian forces to thwart. In an interview with CBS News, Fedorov said: “We need to defeat Russia in every technological cycle.” Though Ukraine is innovating quickly, Fedorov warned that Russia is also advancing rapidly. Fire Point, a Ukrainian defence manufacturer, is developing ballistic missiles and conducted a launch test in June. Fedorov was one of the key drivers of Ukraine’s highly effective drone programme but was controversially fired in July. Ukraine on Sunday launched one of its largest drone attacks since the start of the war, causing a fire at a Wildberries distribution warehouse near Moscow and killing at least six people, according to Russian authorities. The defence ministry in Moscow said it had shot down 1,478 Ukrainian drones in the past 24 hours – the highest ever total claimed, Dan Sabbagh reports. Moscow’s regional governor Andrey Vorobyov described the overnight assault as “one of the most massive drone attacks in recent memory”. In the attack, Ukraine hit ⁠a ⁠missile fuel production facility in ⁠Russia’s Rostov region, the Ukrainian military ‌said ‌on Sunday. It said the company “manufactures solid rocket propellant for multiple ‌launch rocket systems, as well as ⁠for a range of missile systems and airborne ‌weapons”. A Spanish fighter jet on Sunday shot down a drone that had breached Romanian airspace near the border with Ukraine and Moldova, Nato said. The interception of the drone – which entered from Moldova – was carried out by an F-18, deployed on Nato duties, the Romanian defence ministry said. Debris fell in an unpopulated area of the Galati region, near the Ukrainian border. A growing number of drones have crossed into Nato states in eastern Europe as Russia pursues its invasion of Ukraine. The EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has said she wants to increase by one-third the number of Russian entities sanctioned over the Ukraine war, German newspaper Die Welt reported on Monday. The bloc has adopted 21 rounds of sanctions against Russia since 2022. “For autumn I am putting forward the most far-reaching sanctions listings since the start of the war,” Kallas told the paper. “Once adopted, they would immediately raise the total number of sanctioned Russian entities by a third.” In July, the EU adopted a watered down sanctions package only approved after protracted negotiations among member states, after some objected to tougher measures. In Ukraine, a barrage of Russian drones and missiles on Sunday killed two people and wounded 14 at ArcelorMittal’s steel plant in Kryvyi Rih, the home town of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The plant, one of Ukraine’s biggest steel producers, said it had partially halted operations because of the strike. Another attack hit Kryvyi Rih on Sunday evening, killing one person. Strikes also killed two people in the Zaporizhzhia region. In Kyiv, a popular outdoor book market at Pochaina, long the place to find rare and antiquarian volumes, was hit by the Russian attack. Bookseller Dmytro Semenukha saw all four of his stalls burn to the ground. “There used to be a store. And books, and flags of all the countries, all the countries. Tons of everything. And that’s it,” the 45-year-old told Agence France-Presse. In a social media post on the overnight raid, Zelenskyy said that “wherever the Russians can reach with their ballistic missiles, they strike civilian infrastructure”. Over the past week, Zelenskyy said, Ukrainian cities had been pummelled by “more than 1,550 attack drones, nearly 1,560 guided aerial bombs, and 62 missiles”, as he renewed his appeal to allies for more air defence. Russian officials said on Monday that an overnight Ukrainian missile ⁠strike ⁠had killed six people and ⁠wounded another ⁠four, including ‌a ‌14-year-old child, in ‌the Belgorod region.

After Hormuz, China looks to the promise – and peril – of the Arctic’s ‘ice silk road’

When Marco Rubio suggested that the world should look to new shipping lanes to bypass the logjammed strait of Hormuz, it’s unlikely he had the Arctic’s northern sea route in mind. And yet in recent months the promise of this 5,500km channel – cleaved through frozen seas by nuclear-powered icebreakers and illuminated by a sun that never dips below the Arctic horizon – has grown. Japan, Korea and India have all expressed interest in sending cargoes through the northern sea route (NSR), but it’s China that has established the first scheduled transit, with shipping company Sea Legend launching a regular service in recent days. The NSR, which cuts through the Arctic Circle along Russia’s northern coast, is only navigable during warmer months, but that window has widened due to shrinking summer sea ice. For some vessels, the route can more than halve the time it takes to get from China to Europe, but the benefits come with serious environmental and political risks that have the potential to outweigh the gains. After a single pilot voyage in 2025, Sea Legend has launched a regular container service via the Arctic route. That direct journey from Ningbo-Zhoushan to Felixstowe in the UK takes as little as 18 days – according to Li – compared with more than 40 days via the Suez canal. Experts say the route is ideal for cargo that is sensitive to temperature, including electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar products – among which China has become a dominant global exporter. As the only regular commercial cargo service on the route, Sea Legend will test whether Beijing’s longstanding Arctic ambitions can translate into a viable regular China-Europe trade route. The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, first publicly called for China and Russia to develop Arctic shipping routes and build a “polar Silk Road” in 2017. Russia, which controls much of the northern sea route, was initially wary of China’s growing presence in the Arctic. But after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been left increasingly dependent on Beijing in the high north, giving China greater leverage and access. Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom issues navigation permits and oversees shipping along the route, while also providing the nuclear-power icebreakers that are needed to accompany most vessels. Sea Legend says the Arctic route will roughly halve emissions because of the shorter sailing time between China and Europe, but according to experts, the environmental risks inherent in the journey could easily erase any emissions savings. Some shipping companies have faced criticism for operating vessels that use heavy fuel oil (HFO), which was banned from the Arctic in 2024. According to a 2025 report from the Bellona Environmental Foundation, fuel spills pose huge dangers in the Arctic because HFO is thicker than other types, making it difficult to clean up. Oil also decomposes more slowly in colder weather and is almost impossible to remove once trapped in ice. Their report argues Russia is completely unprepared to deal with such a disaster should it occur. The distances of the NSR – along with its isolation – mean that specialised recovery teams could take weeks to reach a spill site. “Due to the remoteness of the region and lack of logistical support, the probability of a prolonged machinery breakdown and consequential grounding is much higher. This poses the risk of an environmental oil spill in a fragile ecosystem,” says Capt Nitin Chopra, Allianz principal marine risk consultant for Asia. Bellona also flags the danger of black carbon – one of the emissions from HFO – calling it “one of the most potent absorbers of solar radiation”. Black carbon can reduce the reflectivity of the Arctic region, making it absorb more sunlight while trapping heat, exacerbating global warming. Frozen highway for the shadow fleet Li Xiaobin, chief operating officer of Sea Legend, said this month that the crisis in the Middle East has exposed the vulnerability of the Suez canal and strait of Hormuz to regional turmoil, heightening the need to develop alternative trade routes between China and Europe. Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has echoed those comments. Moscow would like to redraw the map of world trade, but its control of the NSR – which is largely in Russia’s exclusive economic zone – is seen as too great a risk for many operators. International sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine could complicate rescue efforts if a vessel gets into trouble and requires assistance, insurer Allianz Commercial said in its 2026 safety and shipping review. Experts say that for now, much of the traffic along the NSR is taken up by Moscow’s shadow fleet: tankers often operating without insurance or proper regulatory oversight, making ad hoc journeys to evade sanctions on Russia’s oil. “In 2025 there were a hundred such ships under international sanctions – or nearly a third of the cargo ships sailing the route,” Bellona’s Ksenia Vakhrusheva wrote in a report last year. In 2026, reports suggest shadow fleet shipments through the NSR are happening at an even faster rate, thanks to milder summer conditions that are aiding navigation. “With the current climate change, we may be able to see more time of the years that the northern sea route will be open for commercial shipping,” says Vinh Thai, professor of logistics and supply chain management at RMIT University, adding that there is some evidence it is already happening. A Russian transporter of LNG was able to start an early transit through the route in May, thanks to the shrinking summer sea ice. In the past week, ship-watchers spotted an unprecedented convoy of Russian tankers taking an unusually northern path through the NSR. The fleet of vessels, reportedly carrying about 8m barrels of oil, passed within 500 miles of the north pole. Despite Russia’s bold – perhaps reckless – efforts to push the NSR as a viable alternative for international shipping, experts say that for now the economics don’t add up. Safety concerns, high operating costs, a short sailing season and sanctions risks will probably continue to constrain Arctic shipping. Any oil spill could therefore be an “environmental as well as economic disaster”, says Thai. “Not only for Russia, but also the surrounding area as well. “So can the northern sea route be used as a substitute for the strait of Hormuz and the Suez canal? The short answer is no, not for the moment.”