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Sanae Takaichi’s conservatives cement power in landslide Japan election win

Japan’s conservative governing coalition has dramatically strengthened its grip on power after a landslide victory in Sunday’s elections in what will be seen as an early public endorsement of the new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. Her Liberal Democratic party (LDP) was projected to win as many as 328 of the 465 seats in parliament’s lower house, well above the 233 it needed to regain the majority it lost in 2024. With her coalition partner, the Japan Innovation party, she now has a supermajority of two-thirds of seats, easing her legislative agenda as she can override the upper chamber, which she does not control. A smiling Takaichi placed a red ribbon above each winner’s name on a signboard at the LDP’s headquarters as accompanying party executives applauded. The 64-year-old, who called a snap election soon after becoming Japan’s first female prime minister last autumn, had vowed to resign if her coalition failed to secure a simple majority in the vote, which was held on a freezing day when many parts of the country were again hit by heavy snow. She will not, however, have long to savour her party’s victory. There are concerns over her management of Japan’s public finances and her ability to defuse a bitter row with China over the future of Taiwan. Takaichi sought to appeal to voters with a 21tn yen (£99bn) stimulus package aimed at easing the cost of living crisis, later promising to suspend the 8% consumption (sales) tax on food for two years – a 5tn-yen hit to annual revenue. Her spending plans have rattled financial markets and caused currency volatility, prompting some commentators to question her approach given that Japan’s debt is more than twice the size of its gross domestic product – the heaviest debt burden of any advanced economy. Speaking as exit polls showed her party cruising to victory, Takaichi, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, said: “We have consistently stressed the importance of responsible and proactive fiscal policy. We will prioritise the sustainability of fiscal policy. We will ensure necessary investments. Public and private sectors must invest. We will build a strong and resilient economy.” After a whirlwind introduction to diplomacy – including meetings with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping late last year – Takaichi sparked a row with Beijing in November when she suggested Japan could become involved militarily in the event of a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan. China urged tourists not to visit Japan – advice they have heeded – and young people not to study there, citing “safety concerns”. The dispute has disrupted cultural exchanges and even brought an end to decades of “panda diplomacy”. Takaichi’s refusal to withdraw her remarks may have angered Beijing, but it has played well with many voters. Margarita Estévez-Abe, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, said Sunday’s victory could give Takaichi room to repair the damage to Sino-Japanese ties. “Now she doesn’t have to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will take place,” Estévez-Abe said. “So the best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi kind of takes a deep breath and focuses on amending the relationship with China.” But if she follows through with the consumption tax cut, the market reaction could be swift and hostile, according to some analysts. Takaichi’s big victory means she will have more political room to follow through on key commitments such as consumption-tax cuts, said Seiji Inada, the managing director at the consultancy FGS Global. “Markets could react in the following days, and the yen could come under renewed pressure.” Blizzard conditions in some regions made visiting a polling station in Sunday’s election, the first held in mid-winter for 35 years, a test of endurance for many voters. Kazushige Cho, a 54-year-old teacher, said he had been determined to vote for the LDP despite the atrocious weather. “She [Takaichi] has shown strong leadership and pushes various policies forward,” Cho said outside a polling station in a small town in Niigata prefecture where the snow had reached a depth of more than 2 metres. “I think things could turn out quite well.” The weather, which is expected to contribute to a low turnout, caused widespread disruption on Sunday, halting services on dozens of train lines and forcing the cancellation of 230 domestic flights, according to the transport ministry. Turnout stood at 21.6% with four hours left before polls closed – 2.65 percentage points lower than at the same time in the 2024 lower house election, the Nikkei business newspaper said, citing the internal affairs ministry. Takaichi’s personal popularity – particularly among younger voters – has transformed the LDP’s fortunes since winning the race to succeed Shigeru Ishiba as the party’s president in October. Under Ishiba, the LDP and its then coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majorities in both houses of parliament amid public anger over a slush fund scandal and the rising cost of food and other basics. The LDP, which has governed Japan for most of the past 70 years, was helped, as in previous elections, by a fractured and uninspiring opposition. The main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, which was formed weeks before by two existing parties, was projected to sink to half of their combined pre-election share of 167 seats, leaving questions hanging over its future.

Thai PM’s party on track to win election in blow to pro-democracy camp

The party of the Thai prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul, a staunch royalist and shrewd political dealmaker, is on track to win the most seats in Sunday’s election after a disappointing night for his rivals in the youthful, pro-democracy People’s party. “We are likely to take first place in the election,” the 59-year-old told reporters at the headquarters for his Bhumjaithai party in Bangkok. “The victory today belongs to all Thais, no matter whether you voted for us or not,” he said. Bhumjaithai, which is seen as the preferred choice of Thailand’s powerful military royalist establishment, had taken a big lead with more than half of votes counted, and Thai TV channels projected it would be by far the largest in parliament. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, 38, leader of the People’s party, conceded defeat, telling supporters at the party’s headquarters: “Even though we cannot establish a government today, I want everyone to keep walking, keep going and don’t give up. Let’s keep fighting. As long as we still have each other, the power will belong to the people, for sure.” The People’s party had been leading polls ahead of the election, but with more than half of votes counted on Sunday night it was in second place, with Pheu Thai, the party linked to the now imprisoned former populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra, third. The result is a major blow to Thailand’s pro-democracy camp, which won the most seats and votes in the last election but was blocked from power by rivals in the military royalist establishment. Two previous iterations of the party were dissolved and its leaders banned from politics in rulings by the constitutional court, which frequently intervenes in Thai politics. The People’s party has a loyal support base among young and urban Thais who want reforms to make Thailand, which has a history of military coups, more democratic. Anutin has been prime minister since September, taking office after Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed for an ethics violation connected to her handling of a border dispute with Cambodia. He dissolved parliament in December to call a new election when he was threatened with a no-confidence vote, and just as conflict with Cambodia had re-erupted. He has sought to present himself as the only leader committed to protecting Thailand’s territory, riding a wave of nationalism prompted by the border conflict. Bhumjaitai pledged to build a wall across the border, and to offer an incentive of 15,000 baht (£350) a month to those volunteering for the armed forces. At a recent campaign rally he said that if Thai people wanted a government “chosen by Cambodia” they should vote for his rivals. The People’s party, which has long campaigned for the army to be more accountable, was accused of being anti-military – a position it rejected. Dr Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, said Bhumjaithai had been uniquely placed to benefit from such nationalism. It had also succeeded in leveraging its links with powerful political families that are able to deliver votes, balancing this by appointing “a front-facing layer of technocrats”, he said. “This arrangement allowed the party to stay anchored in patronage politics while broadening its appeal to conservative voters who might otherwise find this traditional style of politics unpalatable.” Bhumjaithai had, Napon said, positioned itself as a force for stability at a time when many voters were wary of the political disruption associated with sweeping structural reform. Anutin, the son of a former cabinet minister, comes from a family that owns one of Thailand’s biggest construction companies, responsible for some high-profile developments including Bangkok’s main airport. He did not comment when asked what a future cabinet would look like. At the headquarters for the People’s party, where supporters had turned out to watch results, the mood was glum on Sunday night. Kanawat Sombunpot, 27, an accountant, said she was heartbroken, and believed Anutin had benefited from nationalism linked to the war with Cambodia. It was hard to think of what the People’s party could do differently, she said, adding that it had already dropped its policy to amend Thailand’s lese-majesty law, under which criticism of the monarchy can lead to up to 15 years in prison. “If [the party] adapts any more it will be grey and the same as other parties,” said Kunawut Watcharapitchaiyakul, 26, who works in marketing and had come to watch the results at the party’s headquarters. The People’s party had pledged to fight corruption and differentiated itself by promising major reforms to make the country more democratic, break up big monopolies and modernise the education system. Kunawut questioned whether some members of the public had taken issue with the People’s party’s past decisions, especially where it appeared to put ideology or a clean image over pragmatism. However, he said he believed this approach would benefit the party in the long term by building trust. “It’s going to take time,” he said. “Maybe 10 years.” “I won’t give up,” he added. “But I’m tired.” Agence France-Presse contributed to this report

Treaties to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons are failing | Letters

Simon Tisdall is absolutely right (China is leading the charge to nuclear Armageddon – and Starmer barely noticed, 1 February). From our prime minister to the person in the street, no one is talking about nuclear weapons, yet nuclear weapons states are busy modernising their arsenals and, in China’s case, increasing the numbers. Treaties supposed to limit nuclear proliferation have failed or are failing. Concern about this in civil society is minimal, and in parliament only a few of us address it as a matter of urgency. I can understand that climate change, AI, Gaza and Ukraine are all issues of pressing and immense concern. In recent decades, the incidence of false alarms has brought the world to the brink of nuclear war more than once. The nuclear-non proliferation treaty review conference will take place in April this year. The last two NPTs have largely failed; this time world leaders, including our prime minister, must ensure that at the very least the trajectory is changed from the current one. The goal of a world without nuclear weapons is vanishingly far away. But there are diplomatic and practical steps that could make us all much safer. Sue Miller Liberal Democrat, House of Lords; co-president, Parliamentarians for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament

Russia says man suspected of shooting general detained in Dubai

Authorities in Dubai have arrested and handed over to Russia a man suspected of shooting and wounding a senior officer in Russia’s intelligence services, according to Moscow’s security service. The announcement on Sunday came two days after a gunman shot Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev three times on the stairwell of his Moscow apartment, leaving him in a critical condition. The Federal Security Service (FSB) said a Russian citizen, Lyubomir Korba, was detained in Dubai on suspicion of carrying out the shooting. Television images showed masked FSB officers escorting a blindfolded man from a small jet in Russia in the dark. In a statement on its website, the FSB said it had also identified two “accomplices”, one of whom was detained in Moscow and another who “left for Ukraine”. Investigators said Ukrainian intelligence agents had tasked Korba, who was born in 1960 in the Ternopil region of Soviet Ukraine, with carrying out Friday’s shooting, which was done with a Makarov pistol equipped with a silencer at an apartment complex seven miles north of the Kremlin. No party has claimed responsibility for the attack on Alekseyev, 64, but Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, called it a “terrorist attack” and claimed without evidence that it had been intended to derail talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US to end the war. Authorities in the UAE believe the attack was orchestrated by Ukraine, according to a source with direct knowledge of their thinking. Vladimir Putin thanked the UAE’s president on Saturday for assistance in the detention of a suspect linked to the attack, the Kremlin said. Ukrainian intelligence agencies have targeted dozens of Russian military officers and Russian-installed officials since the start of the war, accusing them of involvement in war crimes. However, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said Ukraine had had nothing to do with the shooting of Aleseyev and suggested it was the result of Russian “in-fighting”. Ukrainian-born Alekseyev is a deputy director of Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, a unit in the defence ministry known for organising covert operations abroad, including assassinations, sabotage and espionage. He was one of the top officers providing Putin with intelligence for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He has been widely described as a major figure overseeing the country’s private military companies and was among the senior officials dispatched to negotiate with Yevgeny Prigozhin during the Wagner group’s brief mutiny in the summer of 2023. After Prigozhin’s revolt, Alekseyev was widely believed to have fallen out of favour in Moscow and was reported to have been detained briefly over his links to Wagner, yet he ultimately retained his post. The lieutenant general is under sanctions from Washington for his alleged involvement in efforts to interfere in the 2020 US presidential election. The UK also placed sanctions on him over the deadly 2018 novichok nerve agent attack in Salisbury. Moscow has released few details about Alekseyev’s condition since he was taken to hospital, but a source with knowledge of his health said the general was expected to recover. The commander of Ukraine’s Azov regiment, Denys Prokopenko, wrote on X that if Alekseyev survived, he would never sleep peacefully again. He added: “No war criminal who has killed and tortured Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, destroyed Ukrainian cities, abducted Ukrainian children or committed other crimes against the Ukrainian people will ever feel safe.” The assassination attempt came a day after Russian and Ukrainian delegations, including Alekseyev’s direct superior, Igor Kostyukov, met in Abu Dhabi, where both sides spoke of apparent progress in the peace talks. Previous peace efforts have broken down over Russia’s maximalist territorial demands on Ukraine, with Moscow repeatedly rejecting Kyiv’s calls for an immediate ceasefire. The Trump administration has instructed both sides to end the war by June, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. Ukraine has targeted at least three Russian generals in the Moscow region over the past year, though such operations have typically involved explosives. Alekseyev’s shooting was seen as the latest failure of Russia’s security services to protect senior military personnel within Russia. While details of who carried out the attack remain unclear, Russian military bloggers have criticised apparent security lapses and questioned how a gunman was able to enter the apartment building undetected.

Veteran French politician quits as head of prestigious institute after Epstein links revealed

Jack Lang, a former French culture minister, has resigned as head of Paris’s prestigious Arab World Institute after revelations of his past contacts with the disgraced financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and the launch of a financial investigation by French prosecutors. The 86-year-old resigned on Saturday night before he was due to attend an urgent meeting called by the French foreign ministry to discuss his links to Epstein. Lang was “very sad and deeply hurt to be leaving a position he loves”, his lawyer, Laurent Merlet, told RTL radio on Sunday. “He put the interests of the Arab World Institute first.” Earlier on Saturday, the French financial prosecutor’s office opened an investigation into Lang and his daughter, the film producer Caroline Lang, on suspicion of “aggravated tax fraud laundering” after they were referenced in the Epstein files. Both denied any wrongdoing. Lang’s departure is the latest example of the fallout in Europe from files released on 30 January by the US Department of Justice, many of which showed Epstein’s social, networking and financial links. Lang is the most high-profile public figure in France caught up in the latest release of private messages from the convicted sex offender. He was culture minister under the Socialist president François Mitterrand in the 1980s and 90s, and oversaw major modern architectural projects such as the building of the Louvre pyramid. Since 2013, he has headed the Institut du Monde Arabe, or Arab World Institute, a cultural and research institution that promotes understanding of the Arab world and is supervised by the French foreign ministry. Lang was shown in the Epstein files corresponding intermittently with the financier between 2012 and 2019, when Epstein died by suicide in jail. He was mentioned more than 600 times in the files, according to news agencies. His daughter was also repeatedly mentioned. Caroline Lang resigned this week from France’s Union of Independent Producers after the emails showed she had founded an offshore company with Epstein in 2016 to invest in the work of young artists. She said she had resigned from that offshore company when further allegations were made against Epstein in 2019. She denied any wrongdoing. Caroline Lang also appeared in Epstein’s will as a beneficiary of €5m, according to the French investigative website Mediapart. She told the French public broadcaster France 2 this week that she had never heard of the will and had never seen any such document or received any funds. Jack Lang has denied any wrongdoing, saying he was “shocked” that his name appeared in the statutes of the offshore company in 2016 and that he had appealed to Epstein only as a philanthropist. Merlet told Agence France-Presse on Saturday: “There has been no movement of funds … But I think it is normal for the justice to want to verify this.” He said Caroline Lang was “serene” because she had received no funds. In a defence used by other Epstein associates, Lang said he was unaware of Epstein’s criminal behaviour despite his conviction in 2008 for soliciting a minor for prostitution. “How could a man so courteous, so charming, so generous have perpetrated such abominations?” Lang told the French public broadcaster France 2 this week. He said he had been shocked to learn of the allegations against Epstein in 2019. A video showed Lang with Epstein in front of the Louvre pyramid in Paris in March 2019, months before he was charged with sex trafficking girls as young as 14. Le Monde newspaper and Mediapart, which investigated the files, said no documents released by the US justice department suggested either Lang or his daughter had been implicated in Epstein’s sex crimes. Earlier this week, Lang had said he would not resign, despite calls for him to quit from all parties, including his own. Lang has said he was introduced to Epstein by the American actor and director Woody Allen. Epstein owned a vast apartment in the west of Paris and was a frequent visitor to the French capital before his death in prison in 2019.

Is there a doctor on board? The midair emergency call medical professionals dread

British Airways flight 032, bound for London, was still on the tarmac in Hong Kong when Prof Angus Wallace heard the passenger announcement dreaded by many medics: “If there is a doctor on board, would they please make themselves known to cabin staff.” Wallace, then the head of orthopaedic surgery at Queen’s Medical Centre in Nottingham, answered the call, as did Dr Tom Wong, a medical resident at the time. It was 1995; the pair were asked to provide assistance to 39-year-old Paula Dixon, who had fallen off a motorbike en route to the airport. The problem seemed to be some bruising and a potentially fractured right forearm, which the doctors splinted after takeoff. But an hour into the flight, Dixon developed chest pain and her condition began to worsen. The doctors diagnosed her with a life-threatening tension pneumothorax – a collapsed lung caused by air trapped in the chest cavity – and likely rib fractures. They couldn’t receive immediate advice from ground staff, so Wallace decided to operate. The aircraft’s medical kit had a urinary catheter and lignocaine, a local anaesthetic, but “there the routine equipment ended”, Wallace later wrote. The pair’s midair improvisation has since become legendary in medical circles. They “prepared heated hand towels for sterile drapes”, fashioned a one-way valve from a bottle of water with holes poked in the cap, and used part of a coathanger, sterilised in “five-star brandy”, to insert tubing into Dixon’s chest, releasing the trapped air. “Within five minutes the patient had almost fully recovered,” Wallace wrote in the British Medical Journal. “The patient was left sitting in her passenger seat and settled down to enjoy her meal and the inflight entertainment.” In-flight medical emergencies are not common: one occurs about every 604 flights, a US study found – a rate of 16 incidents for every 1 million passengers. The vast majority, according to Lufthansa data, occur on international flights. Deaths on board are even more rare: about one in every 3 to 5 million passengers. ‘All these people are staring’ But those statistics may be cold comfort for a doctor awoken mid-flight by a request for assistance, as was the case for Matt, who was flying from Brisbane to Canberra nearly a decade ago when a man at the front of the plane collapsed. Matt, who asked to be identified only by his first name, was prodded by his father to help, despite only being an intern – a doctor in his first year of paid work. “When I get there, he’s short of breath, but talking to me. I do an initial assessment and I can feel a pulse, but it’s pretty weak,” he recalls. The flight attendant asked Matt if he thought they should divert the plane to Sydney, which would shave several minutes off the flight time. “All these people are staring,” adding pressure to “at least pretend I know what I’m doing”, he says. The man’s heartbeat was extremely slow, suggesting a potential cardiac cause, but he looked “pretty safe” – conscious, talking, and not complaining of any chest pain. “I don’t know what’s wrong,” Matt told the crew, “but I don’t think five minutes is going to make a big difference.” The plane landed as planned, was met by paramedics on the tarmac, and the man was safely transported to hospital. The airline staff offered Matt a bottle of wine as thanks. “They had white or red, and being the intern, I was like: can I have both?” (They acquiesced.) Matt recalls being provided with something that looked like a “toy stethoscope” when he asked the crew what medical equipment was on board. For years, Australian doctors have lamented that the equipment airlines carry is not standardised. Under current Australian regulations, aircraft that fly more than 30 passengers for more than an hour must carry emergency medical kits – but what those kits contain is “at the discretion of the operator”. Ian Hosegood, the executive manager of safety and health at Qantas, says the airline’s planes all carry first aid kits, defibrillators and emergency medical kits. “We carry equipment well above regulatory requirements – from Narcan and EpiPens to antibiotics and advanced airway tools – so our teams are prepared for whatever comes their way,” he says. “Our crew manage a wide range of medical situations in the air, including cases where the right equipment and training make a real difference,” Hosegood says. “On a long Pacific flight, for example, a passenger in severe pain from urinary retention was treated on board using a simple device from our medical kit, which meant we didn’t need to divert. “We’ve had passengers suffer a cardiac arrest mid‑flight and be successfully resuscitated by our crew using CPR and a defibrillator, often with support from a volunteer doctor on board.” Four hours into a flight to Canada from Australia – “far enough that I really didn’t want to turn around” – a woman across the aisle from Justin*, an emergency physician, had a seizure and lost consciousness. His wife immediately volunteered him to assist. Another two medical professionals came to help, one a junior doctor. “They were quite stressed,” Justin recalls, and they deferred to him after they traded specialties. The woman was OK after she came to – she had forgotten to take her epilepsy medication. After providing information to medical staff on the ground via satellite phone, the remainder of Justin’s flight was uneventful. Legal stress In Australia, off-duty doctors have a professional – but no legal – obligation to assist in emergencies. If they do choose to help, they are protected by legislation from civil liability if they act in good faith. Despite this, there is understandable reluctance to provide mid-air assistance, especially on international flights where the jurisdiction is less clear. “There’s always the stress of the medico-legal side and the stress of it being something significant,” Matt says. He has heard of doctors deliberately having a glass of wine or two at the airport or early during a flight, so they can say: “I’m under the influence, I can’t make a decision, I don’t want to be involved.” He says: “If you don’t have a critical care-facing specialty – say, you’re a psychiatrist – you wouldn’t have done any kind of resuscitative work in a very long time, most likely. What risk you’re happy to accept is probably the biggest thing – it’s a completely unfamiliar environment.” In the unlikely, though feared, event of a death at 10,000 metres, what happens for the remainder of the journey? Last year, a distressed Australian couple spoke about being on a flight during which a woman collapsed and died. The husband sat next to her body, covered in blankets, for several hours. The International Air Transport Association’s guidelines for dealing with deaths on board suggest moving the body to a seat “with few other passengers nearby”, or back to their own seat if the plane is full. Restraining with a seatbelt is recommended, as is covering the body up with a body bag if one is available, or a blanket if not. If you were to have an in-flight medical mishap, you could not hope for better luck than Dorothy Fletcher. In 2003, Fletcher, then 67, had a heart attack while flying from Manchester to Orlando, Florida, for her daughter’s wedding. When the call for help was made, no fewer than 15 heart specialists, on their way to a cardiology conference, stood up. She spent two days in intensive care on arrival, but recovered in time to attend the wedding. *Name has been changed

Canada is no stranger to separatism but push for Alberta to join US is a new peril

A separatist push for a referendum on independence from Canada. Meetings with foreign officials perceived to be sympathetic to their cause. Accusations of treason and sedition. Ahead of a 1995 referendum, leaders of Quebec’s independence movement made a string of provocative overtures to foreign governments, including a trip by the province’s premier to France. In a move that outraged anglophone Canada, the mayor of Paris gave Quebec’s Jacques Parizeau a welcome befitting a national leader. Three decades later, reports of a far more covert visit to the US by a group of would-be separatists from the western province of Alberta have provoked a similar backlash, reviving longstanding anxieties about foreign involvement in domestic unity debates. “To go to a foreign country and to ask for assistance in breaking up Canada, there’s an old-fashioned word for that,” British Columbia’s premier, David Eby, told reporters. “And that word is treason.” Proto-diplomacy – the act of courting sympathetic countries for support – has often been undertaken by separatist movements around the world, said André Lecours, a professor of political science at the University of Ottawa. “There have been criticisms of this for sure, but when actively preparing a referendum on independence, leaders often look abroad in an attempt to secure sympathy or support. They want some signs or assurances that foreign states would be ready to recognize their independence.” But the recently revealed contacts with the Trump administration by members of Alberta’s nascent independence movement had few substantive parallels with Quebec’s attempts in the 1990s, he said. “What makes this movement so different is that none of these people associated with Alberta’s push for independence are democratically elected. They don’t hold any public office,” Lecours said. “While I am very reluctant to use words such as ‘treason’, I find it strange that the Trump administration would meet with non-elected officials. They have no formal democratic legitimacy.” Within the province’s legislative assembly, there are no pro-independence parties that hold seats. Only one Alberta separatist has ever managed to get elected – in a 1982 byelection victory – but lost in a general election soon afterwards. None of the members of the Alberta secession efforts are elected officials. And support for independence is muted in the province: a recent poll of Albertans showed roughly 18% supported leaving Canada. Prominent politicians from Alberta, including former prime minister Stephen Harper and two former Alberta premiers have rejected the idea of independence, instead calling for national unity at a time of diplomatic upheaval with the US. Alberta’s current rightwing premier, Danielle Smith, has also come out against separation, although critics say that her call for “a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada” merely confuses the issue. Conversely, in Quebec, five premiers have campaigned on – and won – provincial elections on an explicit separatist platform. The independence-oriented Partí Québécois is widely expected to win the next provincial election this October and has pledged to bring a third referendum. Canada’s laws permit groups to advocate and campaign in support of a province or territory leaving the country. In Alberta, members of the pro-independence campaign have been travelling across the province in an attempt to collect nearly 178,000 signatures by May. But the recent allegations that independence activists have repeatedly met officials from a government which has become increasingly hostile to Canadian sovereignty have prompted suggestions that the movement could constitute a threat to Canada’s national security. While pro-independence politicians in Quebec courted the French, the country’s position on the province was “non-ingérence, non-indifférence” – an official policy of neutrality. But Donald Trump has threatened to annex Canada and turn it into the 51st state – an effort seemingly welcomed by a leader of the Alberta independence movement. Lawyer Jeffrey Rath, part of the delegation that met secretly with state department officials, said last year he and others wanted to “petition” for Alberta to gain US statehood. And influential figures in the White House have signalled support for the separatists. “Albertans are a very independent people,” the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, told the conservative website Real America’s Voice. “Rumour [is] that they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not … People are talking. People want sovereignty. They want what the US has got.” Mark Carney has said he “expects the US administration to respect Canadian sovereignty”. But there is a growing sense of unease among senior officials in Ottawa that the US could use secession movements as a political wedge to meddle in Canadian domestic affairs. “It seems now that if there were to be a referendum on independence in Alberta – or in Quebec for that matter – the US would not stay silent and/or support Canadian unity,” Lecours said. “You’d likely hear another, far different message.”

Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy hints June deadline for peace with Russia could be linked to US midterms

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has hinted that a new June deadline from the US for peace between Ukraine and Russia could be linked to Trump’s midterm elections campaign. The Ukrainian president on Saturday told reporters that both sides had been invited to further talks next week. Zelenskyy said the Trump administration “will probably put pressure” on Ukraine and Russia to end the war by the beginning of the summer. “They say they want to get everything done by June,” he said. He told reporters the Trump administration was proposing to host the next round of trilateral talks in the US, probably in Miami, in a week’s time. “We confirmed our participation,” he said. “The [midterm] elections are definitely more important for them [the Americans]. Let’s not be naive.” He added: “If the Russians are really ready to end the war, then it is really important to set a deadline.” US and Ukrainian negotiators had discussed how to secure a quick deal, according to sources familiar with the matter quoted by Reuters. Ukraine had suggested a sequencing plan, Zelenskyy said, but he provided no specific details. The Ukrainian president has also criticised Russia for an overnight attack on Ukrainian energy facilities areas, saying in comments posted on X that Moscow must be deprived of the ability to use the cold winter weather as leverage against Kyiv. A “massive attack” by Russian forces on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Saturday caused power outages across the country, the state grid operator said. There are clear signs the Russian economy is finally running aground, as the Kremlin faces its most precarious economic position since its tanks first rolled into Ukraine. Growth has slowed to a crawl amid falling oil prices – a key source of government revenue. Russians face tax hikes while funding for welfare, education and healthcare is being crowded out by defence spending. Trade with key allies has become more muted, corporate bankruptcies are rising and labour shortages are severe. Experts say how the malaise affects the conflict in Ukraine will depend on Russia’s recent macroeconomic manoeuvres, and whether global events continue to drive down oil prices. The UK is threatening to seize a Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker in an escalatory move that could lead to the opening up of a new front against Moscow at a time when the country’s oil revenues are tumbling. British defence sources confirmed that military options to capture a rogue ship had been identified in discussions involving Nato allies – although a month has gone by since the US-led seizure of a Russian tanker in the Atlantic. In January, 23 shadow fleet ships using false or fraudulent flags were spotted in the Channel or Baltic Sea, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Many are linked to the export of Russian oil, largely by water to China, India and Turkey. President Donald Trump has taken what some experts have said is an unusual step of tapping military leaders for high-level diplomacy, positioning the Army secretary as a key negotiator on ending the Russia-Ukraine war and sending the top US commander in the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, to talks about Iran’s nuclear program. As Army secretary Dan Driscoll reprised his role at Russia-Ukraine talks this week, he worked to keep the conversation going with Ukrainian officials in the downtime between sessions, according to a person familiar with the negotiations who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks.