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Albanese says Isaac Herzog’s visit will bring unity – but to many Palestinian Australians it’s a ‘slap in the face’

It’s been more than two years since Shamikh Badra last heard from his brother. He presumes his brother, sister-in-law and their four children lie buried under the rubble of their home in Gaza. He fears they were buried alive. Badra told his family’s story at a march in Sydney last Sunday organised by the Palestine Action Group, protesting against Israeli president Isaac Herzog’s upcoming visit. “This is what genocide looks like in real life,” he bellowed into a microphone to the crowd of at least 2,000 people. “This is what incitement produces, this is what dehumanisation does. “And now, we are told the man who defended these policies is welcome in Australia.” Badra is among many Palestinian Australians shocked Herzog will land in Australia on Monday for a four-day visit. In the words of Palestinian Australian Raneem Emad, it’s “a slap in the face”. Sign up: AU Breaking News email Amid the outpouring of grief and anger over December’s terrorist attack at a Hanukah gathering on Sydney’s Bondi beach, much of the political focus – including Herzog’s invitation – has, justifiably, centred around antisemitism and the treatment of Jewish Australians. But many Palestinian Australians grieving for their loved ones in Gaza feel that new anti-protest and hate speech laws are unfairly targeting them. ‘Our lives are worth less’ The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, invited Herzog after the 14 December antisemitic attack at Bondi, saying his visit was intended to foster “a greater sense of unity”. Major Jewish organisations and federal and state governments have welcomed Herzog’s visit as a moment of profound significance. Other groups, including some Jewish Australian organisations, say the Israeli president should be barred from entering the country. They allege he incited genocide against Palestinians, pointing to a UN commission, which does not speak on behalf of the UN, which concluded in September 2025 that Israel had committed genocide in Gaza and that Herzog, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the then defence minister, Yoav Gallant, “have incited the commission of genocide”. Israel’s foreign ministry rejected the commission’s report, calling it “distorted and false” and claiming it “relies entirely on Hamas falsehoods”. Herzog has called the genocide case against Israel in the international court of justice a “form of blood libel” and pushed back on criticism of his 2023 statement that “it is an entire nation out there that is responsible” for the 7 October attacks on Israel. He claimed he had been taken out of context and noted he had said in the same media appearance that Israel would respect international law and there was no excuse for the killing of innocent civilians. The ICJ is yet to issue its final ruling. Badra, who moved to Sydney 11 years ago and is undertaking a PhD, has sent a letter urging the government to assess its legal obligations under international law before Herzog arrives in Australia. “We should not be encouraging people who incite genocide by rolling out the red carpet,” Badra says. “What is the value of celebrating someone like this? What really can you gain?” To Raneem Emad, “being a Palestinian with heritage in Gaza is such a significant part of me that this visit really does feel like a slap in the face”. “It’s just this reminder that, no matter how many speeches or statements the Australian government makes that it wants us to be united in social cohesion, our lives are worth less.” She plans to be at a protest against Herzog’s visit on Monday. The rallies create “so much sense of community”, she says – but are also part of a push for concrete goals, including for Australia to end weapons exports to Israel and to implement boycotts, divestment and sanctions against Israel. “So many of us have lost tens, if not dozens, of family members in Gaza and no one understands that feeling like another Palestinian mother or someone else who has unfortunately had to face such traumatic loss,” she says. The right to protest Badra has barely missed a Palestine Action Group rally since 7 October 2023. He marched that December after news his father died in Gaza amid a lack of food, medication and clean water. He marched throughout 2024 and 2025 as he fought to get his mother out of Gaza to Sydney. They were finally reunited in October; he hasn’t told her Herzog is visiting because he does not want to upset her. And he marched in August after he was verbally abused on a train because his brother was wearing a Palestinian scarf. On Monday, he says he will be protesting. This is despite a new New South Wales law passed after the Bondi terror attack which curtails the ability for demonstrators to march, and an additional “major event” declaration that further adds to police powers to restrict protest. On Saturday, the police commissioner, Mal Lanyon, confirmed the protest’s planned route from Town Hall through the CBD was “unauthorised”. Three NSW Labor backbenchers have said they will protest on Monday, with one stating he will be attending because Australia should not be welcoming the head of a state engaged in an “ongoing genocide”. A group of 13 MPs on Saturday wrote an open letter to Lanyon calling for them to permit the march. As the premier, Chris Minns, announced the “extraordinary powers” to restrict protests after a terrorism declaration, he claimed the “implications” of pro-Palestine rallies could be seen in the Bondi terror attack that killed 15 people. The federal government’s special envoy to combat antisemitism, Jillian Segal, said in the hours after the Bondi massacre “this did not come without warning”. “In Australia, it began on 9 October 2023 at the Sydney Opera House,” she said at the time. “We then watched a march across the Sydney Harbour Bridge waving terrorist flags and glorifying extremist leaders. Now death has reached Bondi beach.” The Greens recently warned the Albanese government’s new hate speech laws could see critics of Israel’s government targeted for prosecution. A NSW parliamentary inquiry – called after the Bondi attacks – has recommended banning the phrase “globalise the intifada” when it is used to incite hatred, harassment, intimidation or violence. Badra says he is shocked that a parallel has been drawn between the attack on Bondi and protesting against the murder of his family and what the UN commission has called a genocide. “The criminals who attack people in Bondi are not Palestinians. They are not a part of the solidarity movement,” he says. “We oppose antisemitism, we oppose Islamophobia, we oppose racism.” Dalia Ahq, who has been protesting on Sydney’s streets for a free Palestine for two decades, agrees. She says the movement’s concerns have always been dismissed but that has been exacerbated over the past two years, and has again after the Bondi tragedy. She called on the police to let protesters march peacefully against Herzog’s visit on Monday. “The risk is not us protesting but the police not allowing us to,” she says. “If they let us, it would minimise the risk of any arrests, any injuries in doing what we have the democratic right to do.” The Palestine Action Group has launched a legal challenge against NSW’s anti-protest laws passed after the Bondi attack. The group’s Josh Lees says some of the prominent Palestinian advocates in the movement have withdrawn from the public eye because of doxing and safety concerns. Lees fears the Bondi tragedy is being exploited to try to silence the movement. “It’s just an upside-down world we’re living in, where we are just trying to protest on the streets against a genocide and yet constantly the government or the media are trying to make out that we are the bad guys,” he says. The president of the Australia Palestine Advocacy Network, Nasser Mashni, has said that “Australia’s political elite is siding with genocide” by welcoming Herzog. “For every Australian who says they believe in democracy, human rights, a fair go, free speech, then you simply must protest Herzog’s visit.” Badra has urged the police and Minns government to let him, and an estimated 5,000 others in Sydney, march on Monday without fear of prosecution. He says he will be there, and any protests, for the same reason given in his speech to the rally on Sunday: “I stand here for my father, for my brother, for his family, and for every Palestinian life.”

Use of Irish airport for US deportation flights to Israel called ‘reprehensible’

Politicians in Ireland have said the use of an airport in County Clare by planes deporting Palestinians from the US to Israel is “reprehensible”. A private jet owned by the Donald Trump donor Gil Dezer was chartered by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for two separate flights that took detainees to Israel, a Guardian investigation revealed this week. The flights left the US on 21 January and 1 February. Both made refuelling stops at Shannon airport in the west of Ireland. Dezer’s family property company has built a series of Trump-branded residential towers in Miami. He recently spoke of his “love” for the US president, with whom he claims to have had a 20-year friendship. Some of those onboard the flights on Dezer’s jet said they had their wrists and ankles shackled for the duration of the journey. After arriving in Tel Aviv, they appear to have been taken to the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The Irish government said in a statement that as the flights stopped in the country for “non-traffic purposes” and were “not picking up or setting down passengers” they did not require prior approval from its transport department. However, on Friday, opposition politicians expressed concern to the Irish Times about the practice. Duncan Smith, foreign affairs spokesperson for the Labour party in Ireland, said: “It is absolutely reprehensible that any ICE deportation flights would be allowed stop and refuel in Shannon. The taoiseach and minister for transport must intervene and ensure this ends.” He added: “Ireland cannot in any way be complicit in these ICE flights.” Roderic O’Gorman, leader of the country’s Green party, said that it was “deeply disturbing” to learn “that Shannon is being used to facilitate the cruel actions of Donald Trump’s ICE”. Patricia Stephenson, foreign affairs spokesperson for the Social Democrats, said the government “must make a statement on whether it knowingly facilitated these flights”. She told the Irish Times that she believed the human rights of those onboard had been violated. Dezer’s aircraft was chartered via Journey Aviation, a company based in Florida that is regularly used by the US authorities to source private jets. It declined to comment on the flights to Israel. According to Human Rights First (HRF), which tracks deportation flights, Dezer’s jet – which he has described as his “favourite toy” – was first chartered for removal flights last October. The organisation said the plane had been used to fly detainees to Kenya, Liberia, Guinea and Eswatini, before its recent trips to Israel. One of those onboard the first flight was Maher Awad, 24. Originally from the West Bank, he has lived in the US for almost a decade. He has a partner and baby in Michigan. “They dropped us off like animals on the side of the road,” Awad said. “We went to a local house, we knocked on the door, we were like: ‘Please help us out’.” In an email, Dezer told the Guardian he was “never privy to the names” of those who travelled onboard his jet when it was privately chartered by Journey, or the purpose of the flight. “The only thing I’m notified about is the dates of use,” he said. He did not respond to further questions about the use of his jet by the Trump administration to deport Palestinians through Israel. Aviation industry sources have estimated the flights would have cost ICE between $400,000 and $500,000. A spokesperson for the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) did not answer questions about the deportation flights to Israel, but said: “If a judge finds an illegal alien has no right to be in this country, we are going to remove them. Period.”

Zelenskyy says US has set June deadline for Ukraine-Russia peace deal

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the US has given Ukraine and Russia yet another deadline to reach a peace settlement, and is now proposing the war should end by June. The Ukrainian president also told reporters that both sides had been invited to further talks next week. Zelenskyy said the Trump administration “will probably put pressure” on Ukraine and Russia to end the war by the beginning of the summer. “They say they want to get everything done by June,” he said. “They will do everything to end the war and they want a clear schedule of all events.” He told reporters that if the new deadline of June was not met, Washington would probably put pressure on both sides to meet. Before Donald Trump took office, he promised to “end the war in 24 hours”. Later, his special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, suggested both sides could reach an agreement within 100 days of Trump’s inauguration. After this failed to occur, the US president set a new deadline for a deal in August last year, which also passed without any sign of peace, and in December he said a draft agreement to end the war was nearly “95% done”. Two days of US-led peace talks to end the war took place this week in Abu Dhabi but did not produce a breakthrough, although Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, said the trilateral negotiations had been “genuinely constructive”. Zelenskyy said on Saturday that the Trump administration was proposing to host the next round of trilateral talks in the US, probably in Miami, in a week’s time. “We confirmed our participation,” he said. He hinted that the new June deadline for peace could be linked to Trump’s midterm elections campaign. “The [midterm] elections are definitely more important for them [the Americans]. Let’s not be naive.” He added: “If the Russians are really ready to end the war, then it is really important to set a deadline.”

Where’s Evo? Missing Morales mystery as Bolivia’s ex-president goes to ground

For more than a year, he stayed hidden in plain sight: despite an arrest warrant for human trafficking charges, former president Evo Morales moved freely in at least one region of Bolivia, attended rallies, received foreign journalists and went to the polls to cast his vote in the 2025 presidential election. But shortly after the United States attack onVenezuela – and the detention of Nicolás Maduro – Morales disappeared from view; a month later his whereabouts remain a mystery. Bolivia’s first Indigenous president immediately criticised the attack on Caracas as “brutal imperial aggression”, both on social media and, the day after the strike, on his Sunday radio programme broadcast from the heart of the Chapare, a coca-producing region in central Bolivia. Since then, however, the man who was once one of the most recognisable faces in Latin America has not been seen either on his programme – missing four editions – or at the public events he used to attend. His disappearance has fuelled a flurry of theories, including claims by a conservative MP that he has fled the country. The disappearance comes as the centre-right president, Rodrigo Paz Pereira, tightens ties with the US in search of support for the battered economy and an acute dollar shortage. One of Paz Pereira’s main aims is to bring back the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), which, after violent incursions in Chapare that led to clashes and dozens of coca growers’ deaths, was expelled by Morales in 2008. Although the coca leaf has widespread legal and cultural uses in Bolivia as a stimulant, digestive aid or treatment for altitude sickness, it is known that part of the crop grown in Chapare is diverted for cocaine production. The official version – put forward by political allies and the coca growers’ unions – is that Morales has not fled but is instead ill. On the first edition of his radio show without Morales, the presenter said the former president had “caught dengue”, a mosquito-borne viral illness common in Latin America. The following Sunday, the former evista senator Leonardo Loza fuelled the rumours already gaining traction and declined to disclose his whereabouts, saying only that he was “in some little corner of our Patria Grande”, a term used by some to refer to Hispanic America. His supporters made fun of the mystery, wearing masks of his face and even producing a song, Where Is Evo?, which lists his achievements as Bolivia’s longest-serving president and concludes that he is “with the people. The swirl of theories intensified in late January, when the conservative MP Edgar Zegarra Bernal said the former president was in Mexico – something that would not be unprecedented: after Morales was accused of rigging elections in 2019, he fled to Mexico before later moving on to Argentina. But Bernal gave no details or evidence and instead demanded that the government prove otherwise. “Why has the arrest warrant against Evo Morales not been enforced so far?” he said. Since October 2024, Morales had been entrenched in a small village deep within the Bolivian jungle, where hundreds of coca farmers prevented police from executing an arrest warrant against him over allegations that he fathered a child with a 15-year-old girl during his presidency in 2016. Morales has always denied the accusations, saying they amount to political persecution orchestrated by the then president, his former protege Luis Arce, with whom he broke after returning to Bolivia in 2020. Deeply unpopular amid Bolivia’s worst economic crisis in four decades, Arce did not seek re-election. Paz Pereira won but did not move against Morales. Instead, he had Arce arrested on accusations that he had “enabled illicit enrichment” while serving as Morales’s finance minister. Paz Pereira has not commented on Morales’s whereabouts, but his government minister, Marco Antonio Oviedo, said that “the information available” suggested Morales remained in the Chapare. A coca growers’ leader who requested anonymity told the Guardian that “Comrade Evo is already in full recovery and will soon resume his public agenda,” without offering a timeline or location, adding only: “There will be a surprise soon; he has already overcome dengue.” The former president has also resumed posting on social media, criticising Paz Pereira’s government. “But that is no guarantee that he is here or elsewhere, because it’s well known that he does not usually write his own tweets,” said the political analyst José Orlando Peralta. As dengue symptoms, at least in milder cases, do not usually last more than a week, Peralta believes that “either Morales has fled or he is more seriously ill – it is not typical of him to disappear from the media agenda for this long”. Given the relationship Paz Pereira has sought to establish with the White House – this week, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, praised the US “friend Bolivia” – and the emphasis Trump has placed on a so-called “war on drugs”, Peralta believes that “it’s surely only a matter of time before the DEA returns to Bolivia, and that will obviously complicate Evo Morales’s political and private life.” Additional reporting by Thomas Graham in Mexico City

Ukraine war briefing: Russia launches ‘massive attack’ on energy sites, triggering widespread blackouts

A “massive attack” by Russian forces on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Saturday caused power outages across the country, the state grid operator said. Energy minister Denys Shmygal said Kyiv had requested emergency assistance from Poland after Russia hit the Burshtynska and Dobrotvirska power plants in western Ukraine overnight. “Russian criminals carried out another massive attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities. The attack continues,” Shmyhal said on Telegram. “Energy workers are ready to start repair works as soon as the security situation allows.” Due to the damage, emergency outages had been applied in most Ukrainian regions, grid operator Ukrenergo said. Two airports in Poland were suspended from operations as a precaution due to the Russian strikes on nearby Ukraine territory, Polish authorities said on Saturday. “In connection with the need to ensure the possibility of the free operation of military aviation, the airports in Rzeszow and Lublin have temporarily suspended flight operations,” the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency posted on X. Both of the south-eastern cities are close to the Ukrainian border, with Rzeszow being Nato’s main hub for arms supplies to Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier called for faster action in boosting Ukrainian air defences and repairing damage to electricity grids and heating systems after huge Russian air attacks in freezing temperatures. The Ukrainian president said personnel changes would be made in areas where air defences had less than satisfactory results. Kyiv has been hit particularly hard and Zelenskyy said more than 1,110 apartment blocks remained without heat in the aftermath of an assault on the Ukrainian capital last Tuesday. Night-time temperatures have eased somewhat but were still due to hit -8C (18F). “The small-scale air defence component, specifically countering attacks drones, must work more efficiently and prevent the problems that exist,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Friday. Donald Trump has said “very good talks” are ongoing over Russia’s war in Ukraine and that there could be movement as a result. “Very, very good talks today, having to do with Russia-Ukraine,” the US president told reporters on Friday. “Something could be happening.” The Kremlin said earlier that a third round of peace talks should take place “soon”, although there was no fixed date yet. The latest round of talks this week resulted in the two agreeing to a major prisoner swap but failed to yield a breakthrough on the thorny issue of territory. A top Russian military official who plays a major role in the country’s intelligence services has been shot in Moscow and hospitalised, Pjotr Sauer reports state media as saying. Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev, 64, was shot several times on the stairwell of his apartment on Friday by an unknown gunman in the city’s north-west and was in critical condition, according to reports. Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian figure close to Alekseyev, said the general had undergone surgery and remained in a coma. No party has claimed responsibility for shooting Alekseyev but Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ukraine of being behind it, while Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine had nothing to do with the shooting. The European Commission has proposed a sweeping ban on any services that support Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, going far beyond previous piecemeal EU sanctions in its effort to stunt Moscow’s key source of income for its war on Ukraine. Russia exports over a third of its oil in western tankers – mostly from Greece, Cyprus and Malta – with the help of western shipping services. The ban would end that practice, which mostly supplies India and China, and render obsolete a price cap on purchases of Russian crude oil that the Group of Seven western powers have tried to enforce with mixed success. EC president Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday the ban would be “in coordination with like-minded partners” and that Russian LNG tankers and icebreakers would encounter “sweeping bans” on maintenance and other services.

UK threatens to seize Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker in escalatory move

The UK is threatening to seize a Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker in an escalatory move that could lead to the opening up of a new front against Moscow at a time when the country’s oil revenues are tumbling. British defence sources confirmed that military options to capture a rogue ship had been identified in discussions involving Nato allies – though a month has gone by since the US-led seizure of a Russian tanker in the Atlantic. In January, 23 shadow fleet ships using false or fraudulent flags were spotted in the Channel or Baltic Sea, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Many are linked to the export of Russian oil, largely by water to China, India and Turkey. A joint statement signed by the UK, Germany, France and other Nato countries bordering the Baltic and North seas late last month said all vessels sailing through either region should “strictly comply with applicable international law”. But despite setting conditions for a seizure, nothing has followed. “The Royal Navy could challenge any number of ships under maritime law because they are in fact stateless,” said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, a specialist shipping title. “But they haven’t, because there are escalatory risks.” Last month the Royal Marines held a briefing for British MPs and peers, covering the threat from Russia and the situation in the Arctic and the high north. One of those present said the Marines were “champing at the bit” to be given the order to seize a ship. A month ago, the US chased the Marinera tanker from the Caribbean to the north Atlantic, seizing it between Scotland and Iceland with British help. Though it was falsely flagged when it was first approached, it had been re-registered as Russian while it was being pursued in a failed attempt to evade capture. Russian complaints in the aftermath were muted, but a UK or European-led operation would be potentially more fraught “because Moscow would probably respond more robustly”, Meade said. The risks could be reduced if a seizure took place away from the Baltic or Arctic waters, he added. On 22 January, before the signing of the joint statement, France detained the Grinch, an oil tanker off the coast of Spain. It had departed from Murmansk in Russia, under the flag of Comoros, a country in east Africa – but a week later the French president, Emmanuel Macron, told his Ukrainian counterpart it would have to be released because of French law. In late January, John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said Britain would host a meeting of Baltic and Nordic countries to discuss “military options that we might use”. Any oil seized, he suggested, could be sold “and put into Ukraine in order to fight Putin’s invasion”. Russia produces about 10m barrels of oil a day, according to Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Though some of its 7m daily exports are exported by pipeline, approximately 5-6m a day travel by sea, of which 60% goes to China and India. After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the west gradually began implementing economic sanctions to target the Kremlin’s ability to wage war. A price cap was set on Russian seaborne crude exports, which led Moscow to respond by spending an estimated $15bn on buying 400 ageing tankers, often more than 20 years old, to create its own “shadow fleet”. “It’s a collection of old, poorly maintained ships that are opaquely owned, often underinsured and flying flags from jurisdictions either with weak controls or enforcement efforts, increasingly taking up false flags,” said Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin, from the Royal United Services Institute, a UK thinktank. The idea was taken from Iran and Venezuela, already subject to sanctions, but the Russian shadow fleet is, Kennedy says, essentially separate. The evasion of regulations that makes the shadow fleet idea attractive to Moscow has also made it vulnerable. A ship’s flag is, in effect, its own jurisdiction – but if a ship is using a false or even multiple flags, it is effectively stateless and can therefore in theory be seized, though in European countries the exact legal interpretation differs. It is uncertain how far a capture of one or two shadow fleet vessels would hurt Moscow’s economy. Since the end of November, seven shadow fleet tankers have been struck by drones, with Ukraine claiming responsibility for four, including the Qendil, attacked in the Mediterranean. Data on oil export volumes assembled by Kennedy does not suggest there has been a significant drop-off in response, with the Russian export figure holding at more than 5m barrels of oil a day, though volumes are down from a 6m-a-day autumn peak. There are also signs that Moscow is reacting to western threats by re-registering shadow fleet tankers under the Russian flag to prevent seizure. The Marinera was one of 10 shadow fleet vessels in the Caribbean that had reflagged to Russia in December and January, part of a failed effort to break the US oil blockade of Venezuela. There remain more than 200 Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels still in operation, though Russia’s mainstream, own-flagged fleet is expanding. It now accounts for 51% of volumes, with the price cap to which they are subject considered easy to flout. British sabre-rattling comes at a time when Russia’s economy appears more vulnerable than before, with its war boom faded and economic growth faltering. Falling global oil prices, helped partly by greater supply from Venezuela, are hurting the Russian treasury. Yuliia Pavytska, a sanctions specialist at Kyiv School of Economics Institute, said oil and gas revenues for the Kremlin “fell by 24% in 2025” to 8.5tn rubles. They accounted for 22% of state income in 2025 – down from 41% in 2022. The economist said the EU was considering a total ban on providing maritime services such as insurance to Russian ships which, she argued, would be “very painful” for Moscow, particularly if it was accompanied by military action.

Storm-battered Portugal heads to polls as rivals unite to keep out far right

Portuguese voters will return to the polls on Sunday for the final round of a presidential election that has been marked by a push to keep the far-right candidate at bay and overshadowed by deadly storms that have lashed the country in recent days. The moderate leftwing candidate António José Seguro won the first round of the election, which was held on 18 January, taking 31.1% of the vote. André Ventura, the leader of the far-right party Chega – now the second-largest party in parliament – took 23.5% of the vote, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo, of the conservative pro-business Liberal Initiative party, came third among the 11 candidates, winning about 16% of the vote. Luis Marques Mendes, the candidate for Portugal’s ruling Social Democratic party (PSD), came fifth with 11.3% of the vote. Before the campaign was all but officially interrupted by two deadly and destructive storms, some conservative figures in the country had staged a rare display of apparent unity by declaring their support for Seguro in an attempt to head off the possibility of a far-right presidency. Others, including Portugal’s centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, have refused to throw their weight behind the socialist. Opinion polls suggest that voters are also rallying around Seguro. According to a survey by Católica University pollsters released late on Tuesday, the socialist candidate is on 67% to Ventura’s 33%. Should the polls prove accurate, Seguro will secure the highest result for a first-term presidential contestant in the five decades since Portugal overturned its authoritarian regime. But if Ventura clinches more than 32% of the vote, Chega will have achieved a larger share of the vote than the governing PSD did in the last general election. Analysts say that in itself could herald another political watershed. “The ongoing problem is André Ventura’s percentage and his capacity to mobilise the rightwing electorate,” said António Costa Pinto, a political scientist at Lisbon University’s Institute of Social Sciences. “What’s going to be important to watch on Sunday night is whether Chega’s leader manages to exceed Montenegro’s share of the vote. If so – and polls suggest as much – Ventura will reinforce his project to cannibalise the rightwing space in Portugal.” Among the first to declare their support for Seguro were two centre-right politicians – the former president and prime minister Aníbal Cavaco Silva, and the former deputy prime minister Paulo Portas. Politicians, former ministers, public intellectuals, and other figures identifying themselves as “non-socialists” are among more than 6,600 signatories of an open letter endorsing Seguro. Other conservative figures to have expressed their support for Seguro have done so reluctantly. Carlos Moedas, the centre-right mayor of Lisbon, told the Portuguese publication Expresso he would cast his vote for Seguro because the socialist candidate “was capable of being non-divisive”. But he added that his support was “unenthusiastic”. Mariana Leitão, the leader of the Liberal Initiative party, also said Seguro would get her vote albeit “unenthusiastically”. Montenegro, who leads the PSD, said he would not endorse any of the candidates for the runoff, declaring his party to be out of the campaign. Cotrim de Figueiredo, whose first-round performance exceeded expectations, has also refrained from explicitly backing the centre-left candidate, but has said he will not be voting for Ventura, abstaining, or casting a blank ballot. Montenegro’s refusal to pick a side has been criticised by several political figures and commentators in Portugal. “The prime minister’s position is seen as cowardly by some social-democratic sectors in the face of the threat Ventura poses to the foundations of the regime,” said Miguel Carvalho, a journalist and author of the book Por Dentro do Chega (Inside Chega) He said the prime minister’s neutrality, which is associated with his government’s legislative concessions to Chega, would come back to haunt him: “Montenegro’s decision will remain in the dark memory of the PSD, and opens the door for Ventura’s consolidation as the leader of the right in Portugal.” But, as Carvalho also pointed out, Montenegro and Cotrim de Figueiredo may have positioned themselves as they have because they are mindful that the “apparent unity” of the conservatives around Seguro could actually benefit Ventura. “It reinforces Ventura’s claim that he’s the anti-establishment candidate,” he said. For all the media attention that the conservatives’ support for Seguro has drawn, experts believe it may not prove to be hugely consequential. “The truth is that most of those conservative names are no longer that important,” said Costa Pinto. “The current elite of the Social Democratic and the Liberal Initiative parties know better, and they know reality has changed. Chega virtually decapitated those historically notable figures.” The campaign for the second round of the election was curtailed by two major storms that prompted the declaration of a state of calamity that has been extended to 15 February. Ventura called for the vote to be delayed by a week, calling it “a matter of equality among all Portuguese”. The national electoral authority said the vote would go ahead as scheduled: “A state of calamity, weather alerts or overall unfavourable situations are not in themselves a sufficient reason to postpone voting in a town or region.” Electoral law does, however, allow individual municipalities to postpone voting. Montenegro said that while the storms had caused a “devastating crisis”, barriers to to voting could be overcome.

BBC Persian journalists say Iran monitoring them and targeting their families

Exiled Iranian journalists working for the BBC have been warned their movements are being closely monitored by the state, as they said their families in Iran were being interrogated and persecuted for their reporting. Journalists said family members had been threatened with arrest and the seizure of their assets unless their loved ones stopped reporting on Iranian unrest. The Guardian has been told of instances in which the parents of journalists had been warned that Iran’s security forces knew where and when they worked, as well as the position of their desk in the newsroom. Staff working for BBC Persian, which reaches 30 million people a week, said the pressure had continued following the unrest that led to tens of thousands of deaths. There are calls for an independent inquiry into the number of people killed. Journalists have been told they remain targets for the Iranian security services, despite being on UK soil. Some are taking extra security measures after receiving credible death and kidnapping threats. Others have already been forced to quit because of the financial pressures placed on their relatives. One journalist, who spoke anonymously out of fear that being named would place “more pressure on my family”, said their father had been detained and warned by security forces that they were monitoring overseas journalists. “They knew everything about me somehow,” the journalist said. “They said they know where I live. They even gave my father the address, the telephone number, where I’m sitting exactly in the newsroom. “They knew which programme exactly that I was with and they said ‘we are not really happy with this programme’.” They said their family had been warned that London was not safe. There have been credible threats to Iranian journalists in the UK, including the stabbing of a reporter outside his London home. Last year, three Iranians appeared in court charged with targeting UK-based journalists. They deny the charges. The situation became even more critical following Iran’s internet shutdown, which began on 8 January and followed nearly two weeks of anti-government protests. State authorities appear to have relaxed internet restrictions more recently, but not removed them, after the violent suppression of protests by the security forces. Behrang Tajdin, BBC Persian TV’s economics correspondent, said his mother was detained and asked about his work. He said he did not hear from her for three weeks during the internet blackout imposed by the government. “Some of the threats look very serious and are made by people who may not be based in Iran, so they may have the means to affect what they are saying,” he said. “Since 2022, it seems like the Iranian regime is hiring third-party criminals to try to harm Iranian journalists and activists based on UK soil. “I and many other BBC journalists may work in the same building, but we don’t lead the same sort of life in terms of being confident that we are completely safe. We have to take the situation seriously and that hasn’t abated. We need to be very, very careful.” Tajdin said family members of his colleagues had been threatened with having business licences removed or forced into early retirement. Another BBC journalist, who wished to remain anonymous, said they had to be careful when calling family members. “After these protests, they didn’t leave us,” the journalist said. “It’s not safe at all after this protest to talk very clearly. “Many of my colleagues, their families already had their assets frozen. Some have been obliged to leave the BBC. I know at least two of them left because their families have been under really big [financial] pressure and they needed the money.” The journalist said the tactic was designed to pressure them out of journalism and it left them feeling guilty. “They know how to push mental pressure,” they said. “[My family] have no choice because it’s my choice to be a journalist and be out of Iran – the pressure is on them. “This is something that I can’t really forgive myself for. Even sometimes when I’m happy, and I want to go [out] with friends to have a normal life, you feel a little bit of shame inside because you feel, OK, the family are under pressure, anything can happen to them, but I’m freely living here.” Tajdin said: “I cannot count the number of times that a colleague has come to me with teary eyes, saying: ‘My dad passed away, my mom passed away, and I couldn’t be there to say goodbye. I couldn’t be at their funeral’. Or worse than that – they’ve got a terrible terminal illness and they can’t be with them. “I can’t stress this enough – every single one of us knows that our family members in Iran are being punished on our behalf.”