Netanyahu hopes destroying Iranian ‘axis of evil’ will rehabilitate his image
Over three weeks of war, Iranian missiles have killed at least 15 people inside Israel, and injured many more, including about 200 in overnight strikes near a nuclear facility in the country’s south, but they have not touched public support for the war. An overwhelming majority of Jewish Israelis back the decision to start a new conflict, with the Israel Democracy Institute putting support at more than 90% in two wartime polls. Undaunted by the regular wail of air raid sirens, shuttered schools, cancelled flights or warnings the campaign could last weeks, more than half also wanted the US and Israel to keep bombing Iran until its government falls. Opposition politicians set aside campaigning for parliamentary elections due this autumn, backing the decision to attack Iran in an almost unanimous display of national unity.
Enthusiasm for the war sparked speculation inside Israel that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, might dissolve parliament early to capitalise on securing US backing for the conflict, and the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This year’s vote will be the first chance for Israelis to have a direct say on their government since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023. Netanyahu astonished political enemies and allies alike by hanging on to power after the bloodiest day in Israel’s history. He resisted taking personal responsibility for security failures that day, even as almost every other senior political, military and intelligence figure in office on that day apologised and stepped down. But even as he held a fractious coalition together, opinion polls showed that for most of the past two years, support stuck stubbornly below levels that would return him to power. Many Israelis believe that he saw toppling the Iranian regime, or pummelling its military capacities, as his best chance of persuading voters to reconsider his legacy – even though last year’s 12-day war on Iran had only a negligible impact on support. “As far as Netanyahu is concerned, the road to the polling stations runs through Washington and Tehran,” a minister close to Netanyahu told the Haaretz newspaper soon before the war began. “Destroying the Iranian axis of evil is the move that Netanyahu assumed, after 7 October, would rehabilitate his image.”
That consensus prompted questions about Netanyahu’s intentions soon after the first bombs fell on Tehran. In Yedioth Ahronoth, the newspaper commentator Sima Kadmon asked if the war responded to “a security need or a coalition need”. Her scepticism was not shared by most Israelis, however. When Netanyahu told the country he had attacked Iran to remove an “existential threat”, most people believed him, even if they didn’t change their voting plans, said Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based public opinion researcher. “One of the most important data points for me is that in June 2025, close to two-thirds of Israelis believed he had taken action for genuine security reasons,” she said. “That makes a difference, given that for two years in the wake of the 7 October attacks, people thought he was taking major strategic decisions regarding the Gaza war for political reasons.” Political challenges to the war inside Israel have mostly come from Palestinian citizens of the country or outsiders such as Jonathan Shimriz, a first-time candidate. Shimriz’s brother was taken hostage on 7 October 2023, and later shot by Israeli forces in Gaza. He decided to enter politics after founding a grassroots movement for families bereaved in the Hamas-led attacks. “Bottom line, there isn’t an opposition,” he said in a social media post. “Does anyone know when the war will end? Does anyone know why we went into it in the first place? Does anyone ask questions?” Israeli triumphalism provides a stark contrast with the view of the war from outside the country, where news reports are dominated by fears of regional escalation, spiralling energy prices and the paralysis of sections of the Gulf regional economy built around tourism and safety. In a week that brought an intense focus on the bombing of a girls’ school in Iran, likely by US forces, that killed at least 175 people, the front page of the Jerusalem Post depicted a female Israeli fighter pilot hand-in-hand with an anonymous Iranian woman. “Women, Life, Freedom. The Israeli way”, the print read, co-opting the slogan of anti-regime protests that began in 2022.
For many in the US, presenting airstrikes as a campaign for women’s rights carries echoes of the invasion of Afghanistan. Trump campaigned against foreign interventions, including that war, and his change of heart has not been echoed by all his voters. A majority of Americans, including Democrats and a significant number of Republicans, oppose what they see as a war of choice, polls suggest. Trump is now mixing threats of a boots-on-the ground mission with suggestions he wants to “wrap up” the conflict rapidly. Iran would argue that decision is not one Washington can make alone, and if the conflict drags on there may be a search for political scapegoats before US midterms in November. The war’s most high-profile critic yet from inside the Trump administration, the far-right former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, took direct aim at Israel when he resigned last week. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” Joe Kent wrote in a letter posted to X. If that sentiment gains broader traction – at a time when bipartisan backing for Israel is already in decline – it could do severe damage to the country’s most important diplomatic relationship, said one senior former senior Israeli intelligence official. “I think the biggest risk in this war is losing the American people,” he said, highlighting prewar polls that already showed sliding support for Israel among Republicans and Democrats. “If there are many Americans killed, soaring fuel prices, and it doesn’t seem like a victory then it would just enhance those negative trends toward Israel that we are already seeing in the US.” While the US-Israeli relationship threatens to become a liability for Trump and his party, it is an electoral asset for Netanyahu, who has often campaigned on his standing as an international statesman.
Trump is scheduled to visit Israel in May to collect the Israel prize, one of the country’s highest honours. If the war is over, the ceremony would be a valuable chance to showcase close personal ties with Trump before voters make their decision in an election with particularly high stakes for Netanyahu. With the country locked in a struggle over the nature of the national commission to investigate the 7 October attacks, Netanyahu’s political career, his legacy, and potentially also his personal freedom may all be on the line. The prime minister is fighting a long-running corruption case in court, after he was indicted on criminal charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. If he loses power, he will take the stand as a private citizen, or at most an opposition MP. Netanyahu has been pursuing a pre-emptive pardon with Trump’s enthusiastic backing, and raised the issue at his first news conference of the war. Israel’s justice ministry has advised against dropping the charges. Israeli politicians who support the war say they nonetheless fear Netanyahu will try to extract personal advantage from a national sacrifice. Naama Lazimi a legislator for the centre-left Democrats party, said: “Since Netanyahu became a criminal defendant, his political conduct has increasingly been driven by his personal survival. That is why there are legitimate concerns that, at times, his political considerations may outweigh Israel’s national security interests. “There is no doubt that the Iranian threat is existential and must be addressed with full gravity. However, Benjamin Netanyahu cannot be trusted not to exploit the war and the achievements of the IDF for his own political survival.” But if Netanyahu launched the war with at least one eye on his prospects at the ballot box, the bombing campaign has not translated into the hoped-for boost. Scheindlin said: “There has been no significant rally for trust in the government, just a few points which quickly declined back to prewar levels. This [war] is potentially reorgansing the whole Middle East – and the Israeli public is barely raising an eyebrow.” Meanwhile, the campaign against Tehran has muted coverage of the humanitarian catastrophe and ongoing attacks in Gaza, and spiralling Israeli violence in the occupied West Bank. Yet if the polls are correct, and Israeli voters return a hung parliament, it may bring that conflict sharply back into focus. Parties that represent Palestinian citizens of Israel are likely to offer the only path for the opposition parties to form a government. The main Jewish opposition parties have vowed not to partner with them, and do not offer a substantially different agenda on foreign or domestic security from Netanyahu. Prominent challengers include the former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who headed the council for illegal Israeli settlements in occupied Palestine. All oppose a Palestinian state, despite strengthened international support and recognition. As global criticism has mounted of Israel’s war in Gaza – which scholars, rights groups and a UN commission say meets the definition of genocide – the US has proved a crucial diplomatic and military ally for an increasingly isolated nation. If the war with Iran causes lasting damage to that relationship, any military triumph could prove short-lived. “What if the day after we find ourselves alone?” Eli Leon wrote in Maariv. “If the price of bringing down the Iranian regime is breaking up the alliance with the United States … that will be a victory that ultimately costs us our ability to survive in this region in the long term.” Quique Kierszenbaum contributed reporting