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Middle East crisis live: Trump suspends Iran threat deadline for two weeks

Here’s that statement from the US president in full: Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Donald Trump says ‘a whole civilisation will die’ if Iran ignores demands

Donald Trump has warned that Iran’s “whole civilisation will die tonight” if Tehran did not comply with his demands, as the world braced to see if the president would deliver on his latest threat to order the mass destruction of Iranian power plants and bridges in the absence of a deal by 8pm EDT (1am BST). Iran’s Revolutionary Guards signalled they were also ready to escalate the war with a threat to retaliate “beyond the region” and “to deprive the US and its allies of oil and gas in the region for years”, suggesting Iran would target oil and gas production facilities in the Gulf and elsewhere, potentially sending the world into a recession. The White House issued a statement on Tuesday insisting the US was not considering the use of a nuclear weapon after the vice-president, JD Vance, triggered concern with a warning that US forces had tools they “so far haven’t decided to use”. But by threatening Iranian “civilization”, Trump appeared unwilling to dispel doubts he was prepared to commit serious war crimes by targeting the country’s population. On Sunday, he said US bombing would destroy all Iran’s power stations and bridges within fours hours of his deadline. Late on Tuesday, Pope Leo described Trump’s threats as “truly unacceptable” and urged people across the world to contact their political leaders to call on them to bring the conflict to an end. “Today as we all know there was this threat against all the people of Iran. This is truly unacceptable,” he said. The pope added that attacks on civilian infrastructure were “against international law, but … also a sign of the hatred, the division, the destruction the human beings are capable of, and that we all want to work for peace”. With Trump’s deadline looming, there was little sign of Pakistani-led peace efforts bearing fruit, with Iran unwilling to give up its main point of leverage, the near-total closure of the strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for the flow of oil, gas and petrochemicals such as fertiliser from the Gulf, in return for a temporary ceasefire. Hours before the deadline, Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, publicly requested that Trump delay his ultimatum to Iran by two weeks in order to “allow diplomacy to run its course”. Sharif did not offer any specific updates on the negotiations, but said diplomatic efforts were “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully, with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future”. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Axios that Trump “had been made been aware of the proposal, and a response will come”. Sharif also requested that Iran open the strait of Hormuz “as a goodwill gesture” and that “all warring parties” observe a two-week ceasefire. Reuters cited a senior Iranian official as saying that Tehran was reviewing the ceasefire proposal “positively”. However, reports indicated explosions in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday evening, as sirens were heard in Bahrain, where local residents have been requested to shelter in place, and interceptors were said to have engaged targets over the United Arab Emirates. Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran’s first vice-president, said the country was ready for all possibilities as the deadline approached. “National security and infrastructure sustainability are the subject of our precise calculations,” he wrote on social media. “The government has finalised the necessary measures in detail for all scenarios. No threat is beyond our preparedness and intelligence.” Earlier on X, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said: “More than 14 million proud Iranians have so far registered to sacrifice their lives to defend Iran. I too have been, am and will remain devoted to giving my life for Iran.” Tehran has presented its own 10-point plan, insisting on long-term security guarantees, which Trump has rejected as “not good enough”. After days of escalating threats, Trump posted a warning on social media Tuesday: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” The president has set deadlines before and allowed them to pass over the five weeks of the conflict, but he insisted on Tuesday the ensuing hours would be “one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World” unless “something revolutionarily wonderful” happened, with “less radicalized minds” in Iran’s leadership. Amir-Saeid Iravani, Iran’s representative at the UN, said that Trump’s threats constituted “incitement to war crimes – and potentially genocide”. During a security council session on the strait of Hormuz, Iravani said: “Iran will not stand idle in the face of such egregious war crimes. It will exercise, without hesitation, its inherent right of self-defence and will take immediate and proportionate reciprocal measures.” Through his spokesperson, the UN secretary-general, António Guterres, issued a reminder on Monday that attacking civilian infrastructure is banned under international law, but Trump declared on the same day he was “not at all” concerned about being called a war criminal. Officers in the chain of command are obligated under US and international law not to carry out blatantly unlawful orders but it was unclear whether there was anyone left in Trump’s entourage willing to intervene to stop him. In the hours before Trump’s deadline, Israel mounted its own attacks on Iran’s infrastructure. A rail bridge in the central city of Kashan was one of the first reported bombed on Tuesday by Iranian state media, with two people reportedly killed as Israel’s military said it had launched “a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting dozens of infrastructure sites”. A bridge over a railway line near Karaj, to the north-west of Tehran, was hit, according to Iranian media, and power outages were reported in the same city after a substation and transmission lines were bombed. Bridges near Qom and Tabriz were also reportedly hit. The US also struck 50 military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, the home to its main oil export terminal, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had attacked Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex in retaliation for strikes on an Iranian petrochemical facility the night before. Israel’s military, writing in Farsi on social media, said on Tuesday morning that “from this moment” – 8.50am Iran time – until 9pm, Iranians should refrain from “travelling by train throughout Iran” for the sake of their own security. “Your presence on trains and near railway lines endangers your life,” the statement continued in a clear warning that stations and tracks normally used by civilians would be bombed on Tuesday. Iranian media reported on Tuesday that the Khorramabad airport, in western Iran, had been attacked, and Israel said it had conducted another wave of strikes on Tehran overnight. Israel’s military said it had bombed a petrochemical facility in Shiraz, where it said nitric acid used to make explosives was produced, as well as a ballistic missile launch site in north-western Iran. Israel’s military expressed regret on Tuesday for damage caused to a synagogue in Tehran, claiming it was “collateral damage” from a strike against a “senior military target”. Iranian media said the synagogue, serving the capital’s small Jewish population, had been destroyed.

Vance’s whirlwind visit may not help Orbán to the election victory he craves

Even before the plane carrying JD and Usha Vance had landed in Budapest, the Hungarian government had hailed their two-day visit as a new golden age in the relationship between Washington and Budapest. What came next was a whirlwind of politics in which the US vice-president waded directly into the country’s heated election campaign, just days before Hungarians cast their ballots. As Vance crisscrossed the capital, turning up at the city’s Carmelite monastery and a later at a pre-election rally, he lauded Viktor Orbán and lambasted the US and Hungary’s “shared threat from within” of far-left ideology in universities, media and entertainment, all while breaking sharply with the unspoken convention that has long kept most politicians from playing an active role in foreign elections. Vance’s sharpest criticism of the day was reserved for the EU in comments that were likely to roil the already tense transatlantic relationship. Vance attacked the bloc, accusing it of foreign interference, even as he repeatedly stressed he had travelled to Hungary to “help” Orbán in the elections. Hours later Vance joined Orbán at a pre-election rally, sending the packed football stadium into a frenzy as he dialled up Donald Trump and put the US president on speaker. “I love Hungary and I love that Viktor,” Trump told the cheering crowd as Vance held up the phone, describing him as a “fantastic man”. The president, who earlier had warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Tehran did not accept his demands in the US war in Iran, appeared to shift easily into campaign mode. “He’s kept your country good,” he told the crowd, as giant flags of the US and Hungary hung from the rafters. “And let me tell you, I like him a lot but if I didn’t think he did a good job, I wouldn’t be making a call like this.” Meanwhile, the president’s eldest son was in Bosnia’s Serb Republic, making a show of support for its ousted pro-Russian leader Milorad Dodik, and criticising the European Union as “a disaster”. Vance’s visit thrusts the US administration into a hard-fought campaign in which most polls suggest Orbán is facing the possibility of losing his 16-year grip on power. As Hungarians grapple with economic stagnation, deteriorating public services and rampant corruption, Orbán is facing an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former top member of Orbán’s Fidesz party. While officials in Budapest had held hopes that Trump himself would show up to help the Orbán campaign, they erupted in excitement when the White House confirmed Vance’s visit. On Tuesday, as Air Force Two landed in Budapest, the country’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, described the visit as historic. “There is no question that this is a golden age for Hungarian-American relations,” he said. The day laid bare the shared playbook between Orbán and the Maga movement as the leaders railed against Brussels, migration, Ukraine and praised what Vance described as “the values of western civilisation.” Throughout it all, Vance made little effort to conceal his intentions. “I am here for a simple reason, because I admire what you are fighting for,” he told the evening rally, sending the sea of Hungarian flags waving. “You are fighting for your freedom, for your sovereignty, and I am here because President Trump and I wish for your success and we are fighting right here with you.” There was no mention, however, of the grievances that have propelled the opposition Tisza party to the top of the polls; a long-neglected public health system, wages that remain the third lowest in the EU and systemic corruption that ranks as the worst in the bloc. Nor was there any mention of the scandals that have dogged Orbán during the campaign, from the allegations that Russian intelligence agencies, along with disinformation networks with links to Russia, were working to sway the election in his favour to the call in which Orbán reportedly told Vladimir Putin: “I am at your service”. The clash of narratives has given rise to a polarising electoral campaign, in which Orbán has sought to portray the war in Ukraine as the country’s greatest threat, arguing that his personal relationships with world leaders makes him singularly capable of keeping Hungary peaceful, while Magyar has called on Hungarians to cast their vote based on domestic issues. Even as the visit made headlines across the globe, analysts doubted it would do much to shift the election result. “The vast majority of Hungary’s 7.6 million voters have made up their minds regarding where their crosses are going on Sunday’s ballots,” said Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy on social media. “Few of the 350,000 or so who haven’t and who might yet vote are likely to be persuaded by the razzmatazz provided by Vance’s soiree in town.” Adding to this was the fact that Trump’s popularity among Hungarian society is questionable, while far fewer know who Vance is, said Márton Bene, a political analyst at the TK Institute for Political Science in Budapest. “[Trump’s] support in itself constitutes a real advantage only in the eyes of an increasingly narrow segment of voters.” However, Bene saw potential for Vance’s visit to stir up controversy in the days after the election, given Vance’s sharp accusations of electoral interference from Brussels. “This provided an external reference point, articulated at the highest level, for that narrative, which could later offer important discursive resources for attempts to question the election result,” he said. But the visit could have done more harm for Orbán than good, added Bene. For months the prime minister had sought to argue that he – and his connections – were the only means of keeping Hungary safe in a volatile world. During the press conference, however, Vance had said the US administration would work with any Hungarian administration that was elected. “Péter Magyar was quick to seize on this statement,” said Bene, in a reference to the swift rejoinder the opposition candidate posted on social media, in which he said a Tisza government would regard the US as a key partner. The result, said Bene, had “cast doubt” on one of the central claims of Orbán’s campaign – one that the entire visit was aimed at highlighting. “Namely, that effective Hungarian interest representation is conceivable only through Orbán’s personal relationships.”

JD Vance accuses EU of ‘interference’ as he visits Hungary to help Orbán win election

JD Vance has railed against the EU, accusing it of blatantly interfering in Hungary’s upcoming elections, even as the US vice-president said he had travelled to Budapest to “help” Viktor Orbán win Sunday’s vote. Speaking to reporters shortly after landing in Budapest on Tuesday, Vance’s tone was combative as he alleged that the EU was responsible for “one of the worst examples of foreign election interference” he had ever seen. “The bureaucrats in Brussels have tried to destroy the economy of Hungary,” he said. Gesturing to Orbán, he added: “They have tried to make Hungary less energy-independent. They have tried to drive up costs for Hungarian consumers. And they’ve done it all because they hate this guy.” Vance, however, made no effort to conceal the reason he had arrived in the country five days before a heated election in which Orbán is facing the possibility of being ousted after 16 years in power. “Of course, I want to help, as much as I possibly can, the prime minister as he faces this election season,” said Vance. Later, at a campaign rally with Orbán, Vance dialled up Donald Trump, putting his phone’s speaker to the on-stage microphone as the US president offered a glowing endorsement of the Hungarian prime minister. “I love Hungary and I love that Viktor,” Trump told the cheering crowd. “He’s done a fantastic job.” Hungarians are on Sunday due to cast their votes in a pivotal parliamentary election, in which Orbán is facing an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former top member of the ruling Fidesz party. The election has pitted two distinct versions of Hungary’s future against each other, as Orbán and Fidesz seek to convince voters that the war in Ukraine poses a deep threat to the country and that Orbán is best placed to handle this risk, while Magyar and his Tisza party have urged voters to focus on domestic issues such as economic stagnation, fraying social services and corruption. Tuesday’s press conference saw Vance drawn into Orbán’s efforts to paint Ukraine as the country’s top threat, with Vance telling reporters that he was aware of Ukrainian intelligence services trying to “put the thumb” on the scale of American elections. “This is just what they do,” said Vance. He singled out “people in the Ukrainian system” who had campaigned alongside Democrats before the 2024 US presidential election. Hours later, Orbán posted a video to social media in which Vance could be heard praising the Hungarian leader for keeping Europe “strong and prosperous”. Orbán, said Vance, was “one of the only true statesmen in Europe”. The adulation comes as Orbán’s relationship with the EU has plummeted to new lows, amid clashes on migration, LGBTQ+ rights and, most recently, Orbán’s refusal to sign off on a €90bn loan to Ukraine. At the evening rally – called a “Day of Friendship” event – Vance delivered further attacks on the EU. “I’m not telling you exactly who to vote for, but what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats in Brussels, those people, should not be listened to,” he said. “Listen to your hearts, listen to your souls, and listen to the sovereignty of the Hungarian people.” He added: “I see that those who hate Europe the most, who hate its borders, its energy independence, the people who hate its Christian heritage, they hate one man above all others and his name is Viktor Orbán. And if they hate him, it means he’s on your side.” Vance’s attack on Brussels came amid mounting scrutiny over Budapest’s ties to the Kremlin. On Tuesday – after previous allegations that Russian intelligence agencies, along with disinformation networks with links to Russia, were working to sway the election in Orbán’s favour – it was reported that Orbán had told Vladimir Putin: “I am at your service” in an October call. On Tuesday, Bloomberg News said it had obtained a Hungarian government transcript of a call that took place between Orbán and Putin on 17 October, in which Orbán reportedly compared the relationship to that of a “mouse” standing ready to help the Russian “lion” as needed. “Yesterday our friendship rose to such a high level that I can help in any way,” Orbán reportedly told Putin in the call. “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.” Orbán has long been the EU’s most Moscow-friendly leader, maintaining Hungary’s heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas while his foreign minister reportedly regularly updated his Russian counterpart with details of confidential EU meetings and worked to amend the EU sanctions list to Moscow’s liking. Vance praised Orbán for being a “great example” in Europe on energy security and independence, in what appeared to be a reference to Hungary’s continued reliance on the imports of Russian oil and gas. Vance said European leaders, in contrast, had made a “huge mistake” in cutting off oil and natural gas from the “east”. A report last month showed that Hungary’s reliance on Russia had increased since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Russia now accounting for 93% of the country’s crude oil imports compared with 61% in 2021. Vance’s remarks seemingly contradicted US efforts to push its allies to break with Russian energy, with Trump excoriating other EU countries for moving to cease their imports of Russian fossil fuels in response to the war. The EU, meanwhile, hit back at the claims. “Going back to importing from Russia – a greatly unreliable supplier that is waging an atrocious war against Ukraine – would be a strategic mistake,” said a spokesperson. In the transcript of the October call revealed on Tuesday, Putin reportedly praised Hungary’s “independent and flexible” stance on his war against Ukraine. “It is incomprehensible to us that such a balanced, middle-ground position only generates counterarguments,” said the Russian president, according to the transcript. Hungary – which has broken with most EU countries by refusing to help Ukraine with financial assistance or weapons – was also praised by Vance. “Your leadership has been a far, far more important and constructive partner for peace than almost anyone, anywhere else in the world,” the US vice-president told Orbán. He lauded Orbán – whose “illiberal democracy” has caused the country to plunge in press freedom rankings, face accusations of no longer being a full democracy and become the most corrupt in the EU – as an ally to Trump in the defence of western civilisation. When asked whether the US administration would be willing to work with another Hungarian government if Orbán failed to win another term, Vance said yes, but that he did not expect a change in government. “Viktor Orbán is going to win the next election in Hungary, so I feel very confident about that and about our continued positive relationship,” he said. As Orbán and Fidesz lag in the polls, rightwing leaders from around the world have sought to rally behind him, catapulting the election in this central European country of about 9.5 million people on to the global stage as it becomes a wider symbol of the resilience of far-right movements. On Tuesday, Magyar, whose Tisza party is leading in most polls, directly addressed Vance’s visit to Budapest. “No foreign country may interfere in Hungarian elections,” he said on social media. “This is our country. Hungarian history is not written in Washington, Moscow or Brussels – it is written in Hungarian streets and squares.”

Iran calls on young people to form human chains around power plants as Trump deadline looms

Iranians officials called on young people to form human chains around the country’s power plants and people in Tehran stocked up on basic provisions, as the clock ticked down on Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz or face massive strikes on civilian infrastructure. Iranian media showed people gathering outside electricity stations, waving Iranian flags and holding up banners, including at the country’s largest power plant, near Tehran, and in Tabriz in the north-west. In Dezful in the south-west, people gathered on a bridge said to be 1,700 years old. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said 14 million people had signed up in a voluntary drive to fight for their country and “declared their readiness to sacrifice their lives in defence of Iran”. The preparations came as the US president threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight”. The US and Israel carried out waves of preparatory strikes that appeared to knock off course the chances of a last-minute ceasefire deal before Trump’s 8pm ET (1am BST) deadline for Iran to reopen the strait. Attacks on civilian infrastructure amount to war crimes, legal experts say. Tuesday’s airstrikes may have been aimed at pressuring Iran to cut a deal, but the impact appeared to harden resolve within the regime. Alireza Rahimi, identified by Iranian state television as the secretary of the Supreme Council of Youth and Adolescents, issued a video message in a newscast calling on young people to form human chains around power plants in the country. “I invite all young people, athletes, artists, students and university students and their professors,” he said. He asked them to gather on “Tuesday at 2pm around the power plants that are our national assets and capital, regardless of any taste or political viewpoint, [that] belong to the future of Iran and to the Iranian youth”. Iran has formed human-chain demonstrations, also known as human shields, in the past around its nuclear sites at times of heightened tensions with the west. A man in Tehran said his household had collected basic necessities and equipment to charge their mobile phones, in preparation to flee the capital if necessary. “No good can come out of this, since obviously the US and Israel don’t give a damn about Iranian people,” he said. “They are just following their own agenda.” Though Trump said there was still time for a deal, Tuesday’s bombardment further weakened those within the Iranian establishment pushing for a settlement, making the hardliners stronger, diplomats mediating the talks said. But, the indirect negotiations were continuing, largely by passing messages through Pakistan, they said. The intermediaries said they feared that Israel was bombing the chances of reaching an agreement, while dealing with hotheads in Tehran, and a totally unpredictable US president, made it tough to find the middle ground needed for a diplomatic solution. Airstrikes on Iran hit the railways, the oil export terminal of Kharg Island, bridges and a petrochemicals complex. In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that “restraint is over”. “We will do something with the infrastructure of America and its partners that will deprive America and its allies of oil and gas in the region for years,” the statement said. Iran is seeking an end to the war, not just a ceasefire deal, believing that the US and Israel could restart attacks after a few months. Tehran does not want to end up like Gaza or Lebanon, which Israel continues to bomb at will. Pakistan’s military said that Iran’s strike on Tuesday on an industrial complex in the eastern Saudi Arabian city of Jubail also damaged the talks, calling it “an unnecessary escalation which spoils sincere efforts to resolve the conflict through peaceful means”. Riyadh has threatened to enter the war if attacks continue. The Associated Press contributed to the report

UK veterans ‘forced to resign’ for being gay launch legal action against MoD

Two veterans who were forced to resign for being gay due to a ban on LGBT personnel in the armed forces have launched legal action against the Ministry of Defence (MoD) over a scheme set up to compensate them. Steven Stewart, 55, and Mark Shephard, 49, who were both “effectively forced to resign” from the military due to their sexuality, and faced “enduring psychological and relational harm”, are taking legal action against the MoD over the rules of the LGBT Financial Recognition Scheme, with their lawyers telling the high court that it is “structurally unfair”. Law firm Irwin Mitchell, which is representing the two men, confirmed on Tuesday that a legal claim had been filed, with no hearing date set. Gay men and lesbian women were banned from serving in the British military until 2000. About 200-250 were thrown out each year because of their sexuality, though the exact figures are not known, as proper records were not retained. In 2024, Labour ministers approved the creation of a £75m compensation scheme for the victims of the policy, which led to some soldiers being jailed and others being stripped of their medals and losing their pension rights. The scheme was one of dozens of recommendations following Lord Etherton’s independent review into the ban in 2023. It offers two payments: a flat rate payment of £50,000 for those who were dismissed or administratively discharged under the ban, and “impact payments” of up to £20,000 for those affected by it. But barrister Kate Gallafent KC, for Stewart and Shephard, said in court documents that the scheme’s rules mean that those who were “constructively dismissed” – or forced to resign – are not eligible for the larger payment as they were not formally dismissed or discharged. Stewart and Shephard received £7,000 and £5,000 impact payments respectively, which were determined by an independent panel, but had their applications for the larger payment refused as they were deemed ineligible, with their appeals then dismissed. Gallafent said veterans who “were compelled to resign or retire by way of an ultimatum”, including her clients, will receive tens of thousands of pounds less than those who were administratively discharged. Stewart served as a corporal in the Royal Military Police from 1988 until 1995, and told the court that he was “confused” about his sexuality at the time. He was arrested, interviewed under caution and removed from his unit, and resigned after being told he would face a court martial and a potential prison sentence. He said: “Leaving under those circumstances was devastating. My military career ended overnight. The impact of that decision has stayed with me ever since.” Shephard served in the Royal Air Force from 1995 to 2001, with Gallafent saying he suffered “persistent and severe bullying”. In 1999, he was asked “point-blank” by his commanding officer if he was gay, which he confirmed he was, as he was unaware of the ban at the time. He later applied for voluntary release to avoid being summarily dismissed. An MoD spokesperson said: “We deeply regret the treatment of LGBT serving personnel between 1967 and 2000, which was wholly unacceptable and this is not representative of defence today. “Whilst we acknowledge the hurt caused to veterans who felt compelled to resign, the dismissed and discharged payment was designed to recognise those who were dishonourably removed from service.”

Will bombing Iran back to the ‘stone ages’ achieve any war objectives?

During Israel’s 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli jets bombed the Jiyeh power station north of the coastal city of Sidon. The blaze could be seen for miles, a towering column of black smoke. Sand was turned to glass. The plant’s damaged storage tanks leaked an estimated 15,000 tonnes of oil into the eastern Mediterranean, the largest spill in that sea. Israel bombed the country’s motorway bridges as well, destroying spans and cratering roads. The result? In the short term, a ceasefire agreement to end the war was signed, as half-baked as it was over-optimistic. Israel, as it does after each of its conflicts, declared a victory. Hezbollah survived, rearmed quickly and lived to fight another day. As the deadline approaches on Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran back to the “stone ages” – the question arises not only of the morality and legality of such a campaign, but also of its utility. On Easter Sunday, Trump threatened in an expletive-laden post that Iran would face “Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one,” adding “you’ll be living in Hell” unless the strait of Hormuz reopened. On Monday Trump doubled down on his threats. “A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” Trump posted on Truth Social. Even if Trump pushes back his deadline once again, recent history does not suggest that strikes on infrastructure – widely seen as war crime – are likely to force Iran on to a new path. More recent than Lebanon is the experience of Ukraine under four years of sustained Russian bombardment, after Moscow’s own illegal war of aggression. That culminated this year in Kyiv’s worst winter of blackouts as Russia hammered the country’s heating and power plants, but failed to force Ukraine to concede. Indeed, the history of such bombing campaigns – going back to the second world war – is highly contested, including the British decision in 1942 to move to a policy of “area bombing” aimed at undermining the morale of the “enemy civil population”. Despite the promise by the head of the British bomber command Sir Arthur “Bomber” Harris in late 1943 that he could bring about the collapse of Germany within four months, it was the allied destruction of the Luftwaffe, not the targeting of industrial and residential targets, that would prove more significant. The US Rolling Thunder air campaign against North Vietnam from 1965 to 1968, though far more constrained in the scope of its targets, was not much more successful in persuading Hanoi to withdraw its intervention in the south. By 1967, the US defence secretary Robert McNamara was telling a closed session before the Senate armed services subcommittee on preparedness that there was “no basis to believe that any bombing campaign … would by itself force Ho Chi Minh’s regime into submission, short, that is, of the virtual annihilation of North Vietnam and its people”. Writing in the Interpreter this week, the former Australian general and theorist of modern war Mick Ryan unpacked some of the problems with Trump’s current threat. “The Islamic republic of Iran, whose political identity is built around resistance to American coercion, is unlikely to respond differently. ‘Bridge and Power Plant Day’ is unlikely to change the Iranian regime’s strategic calculus and would not reopen the strait of Hormuz. It would, however, give the Iranian government its most powerful propaganda tool of the war,” he said. Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher in the Iran and the Shi’ite axis program at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, was also sceptical over whether such pressure from Trump could be successful. “The United States lacks a credible military option that can force Iran into submission,” Citrinowicz posted on X. “The assumption that pressure alone can break Tehran is not strategy, it is wishful thinking.”

UK government urged to act over proposed illegal Israeli settlement

A group of leading former UK ambassadors and high commissioners has called on the UK government to threaten action against any companies bidding to build an illegal Israeli settlement “designed to divide the West Bank in two and destroy Palestine’s viability”. In a letter published in the Guardian, the 32 former diplomats said tenders for the planned E1 settlement, which would involve the construction of 3,400 houses on “Palestinian soil” as part of Israel’s “systemic West Bank annexation”, were due to be issued on 1 June. The letter called for a UK trade ban on settlements products and services, as well as “suspending trade concessions with Israel for its breach of the human rights provision in the UK-Israel trade and partnership agreement”. Criticism of the E1 plans by Britain, Germany, France and Italy, “does not deter this Israeli government, grown used over decades to rhetorical condemnation without consequences”, said the letter, whose signatories include Sir David Manning and Sir Peter Westmacott, former ambassadors to the US; Sir David Richmond, the former Foreign Office director general; and Sir Vincent Fean, the former British consul-general to Jerusalem. Last month Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said Israel’s new West Bank settlement initiative was a “big mistake”, describing it as “annexation moves” and called for a unified European response to the E1 project, which some officials have said poses an “existential threat” to the future of the two-state solution. Keir Starmer told parliament last month the “Israeli settlements, including the E1 settlement, are a flagrant breach of international law and threaten the viability of a two-state solution”. He added the government recommended “settlement products are labelled so that consumers are informed”, adding: “We will continue to take the necessary action to defend Palestinians and protect the two-state solution.” The letter calls for Britain to lead the way. “The prime minister agrees with the advice of the international court of justice that the 1967 occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem and the rest of the West Bank is ‘unlawful’. Those territories constitute the state of Palestine, which Britain recognised last year with France, Canada, Australia and others,” it said. “Britain is ideally fitted, both by that decision and its historic responsibilities in the region, to give a lead to like-minded European and Commonwealth partners by: warning now that any bidder for contracts to design, build or finance the E1 settlement endangers their business interests in and with the UK; banning UK trade in goods, services and investment with settlements; and suspending trade concessions with Israel for its breach of the human rights provision in the UK-Israel trade and partnership agreement.” It added: “The unlawful occupation needs to end peacefully. Without consequences, illegality grows unchecked, and further violence is inevitable.” The E1 plan, which has been on hold for two decades and has been strongly opposed by the international community, would extend the existing Jewish settlement of Ma’ale Adumim towards Jerusalem, further cutting occupied East Jerusalem from the West Bank, and further separating the north and south of the territory. Last year Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich –a settler himself, who has backed the plan and the imposition of Israeli sovereignty through the occupied West Bank, said he believed construction on E1 would “bury the idea of a Palestinian state”.