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Wednesday briefing: Is it time to end the Bank of England’s independence?

Good morning. There was a time when Bank of England interest rate announcements passed (most of us) by entirely unnoticed. A small rise here; a minor dip there: until May 2022, rates hadn’t climbed above 1% for 13 years. No longer. With rates stuck at 3.75% – and predicted to climb again – the Bank’s decisions are watched closely. Not just by Treasury wonks and trader types, but jobseekers (high rates see higher unemployment) and mortgage holders, both present and aspiring, faced with ramped-up repayments. Rates are reviewed eight times per year by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. But despite it being such a consequential call, its nine unelected members are independent and unaccountable to government. Now parliament’s influential Treasury Committee has launched an inquiry into this relationship. How does the setup work today, and is there an alternative? That’s the subject of today’s First Edition. Plus, we asked three leading progressive economists – Costas Lapavitsas, James Meadway and Ann Pettifor to set out their case for change. Before that, the headlines. Five big stories Europe news | Police have fired teargas at ⁠protesters as more than 250,000 pupils, teachers and parents demonstrated across France on the biggest day yet of a campaign for better high school conditions. UK news | John Healey is planning a major intervention to cut energy bills for poorer households in this month’s budget, after ministers became alarmed at forecasts that show bills rising by hundreds of pounds in January. Ebola | Kenya has reported its first-ever Ebola death, as the disease continues to spread rapidly through the north-east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). UK news | Meta is under investigation for a potential breach of the UK’s digital safety laws after launching a Snapchat-style feature on Instagram. Climate crisis | Drax’s planned datacentre in North Yorkshire could produce nearly double the emissions of all flights out of Gatwick airport each year, an analysis has shown. In depth: Not everyone thinks the status quo is working The Bank of England has had operational independence since 1997. For 300 years previously, the Bank had many roles, including advising the government. Interest rates were, however, decided by the Chancellor. That was until Gordon Brown, who believed this led to perceptions that short-term political ambition, not the country’s long-term interests, directed monetary policy. He wasn’t alone: by the 1990s, central bank independence had become the global norm. The Bank is tasked with promoting monetary and financial stability. The government dictates a target inflation rate (now 2%), and the Bank sets interest rates it hopes will help achieve this. Since 2009, the Bank has also been in charge of quantitative easing (QE) and tightening (QT). The pitch for Bank of England independence was appealing: limit the influence of ignorant, self-serving MPs, and leave inflation to the experts. This remains integral to conventional economic wisdom. And, it appears to have succeeded. For many of the Bank’s early independent years, inflation in the UK remained low, averaging 2.5% compared to 7.3% between 1967 and 1997. But inflation was similarly restrained in France, Germany, the Netherlands. What impact the Bank had – and how much was the result of global factors – isn’t clear. Certainly, during the early 2022 economic crisis, the UK faced the highest inflation levels in the G7. Inflation has remained above target for most of the last five years, during which time we’ve generally fared worse than our European counterparts (though the most recent data suggests this may be levelling). Not everyone thinks the status quo is working. In 2023, the House of Lords produced a report (pdf) recommending reforms, such as limiting the Bank’s remit and increasing scrutiny. Given the radical transformation the UK economy has made in the last three decades, a growing chorus of left-wing economists are calling for the government to go further and curtail independence to overhaul the Bank’s mandate. Over the coming months, these arguments will play out in front of the Treasury select committee. Now over to the experts … *** Costas Lapavitsas ‘Money is a public good’ The Bank of England currently serves the interests of the City. Between 2009 and 2021, it kept interest rates at rock bottom and created money on an enormous scale to buy £895bn of bonds, overwhelmingly government debt. This QE propped up the financial system by inflating house and share prices, while productive investment that benefits us all stagnated. In 2022, inflation reached 11.1%, largely fuelled by energy prices and broken supply chains, which interest rates barely affect. Yet the Bank raised rates 14 times – squeezing households and businesses. QE made the Bank bigger, and it has decided to shrink to a more traditional size by selling bonds at prices well below what was paid (higher interest rates cut their value). Much QE money ended up as commercial bank reserves now earning interest at higher rates. The Bank made large losses as billions flowed to banks. In 2024-25 the Treasury, which guaranteed QE against losses, picked up the bill for more than £36bn, while Starmer imposed tight budgets. Amid the cost-of-living crisis, British taxpayers financed the City. Andy Burnham wants to end 40 years of failure. That means tackling Britain’s lopsided economy by rebuilding industrial capacity. The Bank’s independence should be scrapped, and it should be put to work on this. In Reindustrialise Britain, we set out a costed plan. The Bank and the Treasury would work with a new public investment bank providing long-term finance for industry. The Bank would not resume selling bonds at a loss, costing taxpayers billions. It would keep borrowing costs low and stable, ready to finance a measured share of public investment in power, grids, transport and manufacturing. It would accept the investment bank’s bonds on clear terms, so long-term credit is priced for factories, not speculation. All that is perfectly doable. Money is a public good. The institution that creates it should answer to parliament and rebuild industrial strength. Costas Lapavitsas is professor of economics at SOAS, a former Syriza MP, and co-author of Reindustrialise Britain. *** James Meadway ‘We need coordinated responses’ UN figures show food prices across the globe hitting a four-year high, with further rises expected as this year’s “Godzilla” El Niño magnifies the impacts of extreme weather harvest failures. Oil prices are soaring. Inflation everywhere is ticking upwards. For 30 years, mainstream economics has clung to the idea that central banks are uniquely able to manage this. The hard truth is that post-1997, low inflation had more to do with China’s extraordinary industrialisation, keeping goods prices low, than central banker wisdom. The world is now hit by shocks, whether from climate change or geopolitical upsets, that are, in the words of Bank of England ratesetter Swathi Dingra, “beyond the reach of monetary authorities”. Instead of ‘independence’ from government, we need coordinated responses: first, so that central banks change their ratesetting to account for the sources of inflation, leaving interest rates alone when shocks are from sources beyond their reach. Second, governments should support households and businesses, including through the use of strategic price controls, when shocks appear. Right now, they can pass the buck and say inflation isn’t in their purview. Third, countries need to invest in their own supply chains and domestic production, including food, to insulate against future shocks – something lower interest rates can encourage. The Bank is expected to raise interest rates again in November - we shouldn’t let them. Dr James Meadway is director of the Verdant thinktank and former economic adviser to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell *** Ann Pettifor ‘It makes no sense’ The Bank of England is nationalised, and its staff are on government payroll. The governor is chosen by the prime minister. Governor Andrew Bailey has admitted the Bank cannot do anything about price stability when inflation is imported. Even so, the ‘independent’ Bank intends to raise rates higher – making both private and public investment more expensive, and stalling recovery. It makes no sense: Britain’s fiscal and monetary institutions are at war with each other. The IMF predicts the UK is on course for its worst decade since the 1920s. The private sector is too risk-averse to invest in a weakened economy, and government is effectively forbidden from taking responsibility for economic recovery. Politicians are constrained by ‘fiscal rules’ and by the ‘independence’ of the Bank of England and its 2% inflation target (known as its price stability mandate). This should be abandoned, with full employment and climate consideration its priority. In its place, an Inflation Control Office should be set up. Like France, it would use tools, including a tariff shield and a windfall tax on big energy companies to spend on supporting vulnerable people and lowering the impact of inflation. Next, the Bank should target lower interest rates – vital for both private and public sector investment. Then, as post-2008, the Bank should adopt what are known as targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) to give commercial banks the chance to lock in lower interest rates on their loans to customers, while the Bank must offer ‘guidance’ to ensure lending is for productive, not speculative activity. In 1945, when public debt exceeded 200% of GDP, monetary and fiscal coordination gave the government responsibility to address challenges. Today, the state faces many. Maintaining the status quo, and absolving elected governments of responsibility for economic recovery, will only fuel further discontent. Ann Pettifor is an economist and author Have your say Next week, economist Isabella Weber will be here on First Edition answering your questions. From austerity to zero deficits, nothing is too simple. To get in touch hit reply or email first.edition@theguardian.com What else we’ve been enjoying As a dedicated butter fan, I enjoyed Morwenna Ferrier’s gastronomic tour exploring the cultural rehabilitation of the golden stuff. Libby Robert Reich’s column on the Cornell University case was a good reminder of how a President who acts with impunity against women shapes the broader culture. Poppy Emine Saner’s interview with the legendary Bez, maraca-shaker for the Happy Mondays who says it was harder to give up sugar than cocaine, leaves only one question unanswered: how can he be 62 already? Libby I was stunned by some of our images from the Balkans, based on Irina Rozovsky’s new book. They present a nuanced depiction of a region with a complicated and emotional history. Poppy In this bracing column, Chilean author Ariel Dorfman sets out the lessons from the fall of Pinochet for voters in the US midterms, and warns that reversing Trump’s legacy won’t be simple. Libby Sport Football | Harry Kane marked becoming England’s joint record cap holder by netting twice as Czechia were crushed 3-0 at Wembley; Sebastien Pocognoli’s first camp as Scotland head coach ended with a grim 2-1 defeat to Slovenia. Tennis | Novak Djokovic capped an outstanding week at the China Open with his first title for nearly a year, and Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final of the Japan Open to win his first individual title since February. Football | From ‘the new Toni Kroos’ to the US’s next big hope, we select 60 of the best young talents in world football born in 2009. The front pages The Guardian splashes on “Healey plans £1bn support to bring down energy bills”. The Telegraph leads with “Berlin spy chief leaked UK secrets, MI6 fears”, the Mail says “Tories to slash jobs tax to get young back into work” and the Times has “Badenoch promises tax cuts”. The Financial Times runs with “Oil tanker captains paid $100,000 a month for perilous Hormuz voyages” and top story at The i Paper is “School budgets set for squeeze after blunder over funding teacher pay rises”. The Sun leads on “Murder of royal family GP” and the Mirror says “Too nasty for the nasty party”, as it reports on Nigel Farage and Reform UK. The Latest Plague outbreak? Russian lab worker dies in Siberia Quarantine measures have been in place in several hospitals in eastern Russia since a 28-year-old laboratory worker, Darya Shipilova, died after falling ill at work following a reported accident at a plague research centre in Siberia. Russia’s health watchdog has said she died of ‘pneumonia of unknown aetiology’, but there is speculation about a possible plague infection. Lucy Hough speaks to Science Weekly co-host Madeleine Finlay. Cartoon of the day | Pete Songi The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad What if perfumers could create the smell of the world’s most valuable scent ingredient without cutting down the tree that makes it? Agarwood, or oudh, the dark, fragrant resin produced by Aquilaria trees is in such high demand that the wild forests have been devastated. Now advances in AI, which allow it to predict and recreate scents, mean that soon the fragrance industry should be able to reproduce scents and compounds from endangered plants without repeatedly harvesting them. Although technology has long been able to identify molecules in a scent, what’s new is the predictive element. Nevertheless, some conservationists have warned against greenwashing: producing a substitute doesn’t prevent consumers buying the highly prized original – or address other causes of a species’ decline. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply

Flydubai attack investigation widens as alleged hijacker’s training in New Zealand scrutinised

New Zealand authorities have launched their own investigation into the flydubai co-pilot who allegedly tried to hijack an Israel-bound plane, after police confirmed he underwent flight training there about a year after he abandoned a degree in Australia. Disaster was narrowly averted on 30 September when passengers and crew intervened to stop the alleged attempt of the co-pilot, Hamam al-Hammami, 29, to take control of a flight to Tel Aviv with 182 people onboard. Hammami, an Omani national, had allegedly used a crash axe in the attempted “terrorist attack”, in which the pilot was stabbed mid-air, the United ⁠Arab Emirates’ prosecutor general said. Israeli and other officials in the region suspect he originally planned for such an attack in July, but postponed it. The New Zealand police assistant commissioner, Michael Johnson, on Tuesday confirmed the man was in the country on a student visa for 175 days, from 30 November 2018 to 23 May 2019. “Police can confirm the co-pilot was in New Zealand to complete a portion of his flight training for a UK-based company, no longer operating in New Zealand,” Johnson said in a statement The police are now investigating his time in the country, Johnson said. New Zealand joins multiple countries scrambling to piece together the background of Hammami and his intentions, as well as to establish if he acted alone. Over the weekend, Australian security agencies launched an investigation after it emerged Hammami spent about two years in the country as a student until 2017. He left the country without completing his engineering degree, RMIT University in Melbourne confirmed. On a now deleted social media profile believed to belong to Hammami, the then student appears in a selfie with other teenagers in a shopping centre food court in Melbourne’s CBD. The UK’s Telegraph reported on a post on a now deleted X account that appears to be linked to Hammami that described his years studying overseas as “the golden years of my religious commitment”, and claimed he became less observant when he returned to Oman. On Wednesday, Australia’s peak Jewish body, the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, called for a thorough investigation of Hammami’s associations in the country. “We have seen over the years the availability of extremist literature in religious bookstores, the presence of preachers of hate and violence and the capacity for those living in Australia to fall under the sway of recruiters and nefarious street preachers,” the council’s co-chief executive, Alex Ryvchin, said in a statement. “We have to understand who associated with this [alleged] terrorist, who influenced him and what vestiges of his murderous ideology remain.” The flight’s captain, Smit Machchhar, who also trained in New Zealand for a time, said on Saturday that shortly after Hammami had left his seat to pray, he felt a “big blow” to the back of his head. In a phone call on Saturday with Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Machchhar said: “The blows kept coming … That’s when I realised that it’s not the aircraft, it’s the other guy who was in the cockpit with me.” Despite his injuries Machchhar was able to unlock the cockpit’s security door to allow passengers to overpower Hammami. A reserve flydubai pilot travelling on the flight took control of the aircraft and landed it at a regional airport in north-western Saudi Arabia, where the co-pilot was detained by Saudi authorities.

Yemen civil war: what sparked latest escalation and who is involved?

Yemen has been plunged into a civil war that has extended to one of the world’s most vital maritime choke points and to Saudi Arabian oil sites. What was the spark? The semi-dormant conflict over Yemen’s future reawakened in the summer, when Saudi Arabia bombed the runway of the airport in the Houthi-controlled capital, Sana’a, in an attempt to prevent an Iranian plane carrying Yemenis who had attended the funeral of Iran’s supreme leader from landing. Saudi Arabia said a charter plane could land, but not an Iranian-owned one. The plane eventually flew to the port of Hodeidah on the Red Sea coast. The Houthis described the bombing as part of a Saudi siege of Houthi-controlled Yemen, and vowed “a siege for a siege”. The Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and sent missiles towards the country’s oil facilities. The Saudi-Houthi ceasefire in place since 2022 was over. After months of failing to help their ally Iran in its war with the US, the Houthis had opened a new front. What did the Houthis do next? The Houthis have sporadically used their strategic position on the coast of the Red Sea to disrupt commercial traffic, mainly linked to Israel. But its leadership decided in mid-September to escalate and to try to tighten its grip on the waterways by pushing south down the coast to the narrowest part of the waterway, the Bab al-Mandab strait. It succeeded within days. By 16 September, they had captured the coastal town of Mocha and small islands in the strait, as well as an airport. The battle then moved into the al-Waz’yah district and the high mountain chains overlooking the strait and towards Taiz governorate, including Taiz itself, Yemen’s third city and the home town of the president of the UN-recognised government, Rashad al-Alimi. Why did the Houthi advance succeed? Some have blamed betrayal by Tareq Saleh, the nephew of Yemen’s former president and leader of the National Resistance Forces in the region, but others say the forces of the UN-recognised government are divided, suffer from poor command and control networks, and lack the military intelligence the Houthis possess. The Houthis also had Iranian support; by saying they would block Saudi oil from the port of Yanbu, they were aligning themselves with the Iranian war effort. But the Houthis are not pure proxies of Tehran. Their hostility to the Saudi presence in Yemen is self-standing and has religious as well as political roots. How did the Saudis respond to the shock of the Houthi advance? It took three weeks, but over the weekend Alimi announced a broad counteroffensive called Operation Yemen Dawn, designed to end the “Houthi coup”. It saw 100 Saudi jets fly in support of Yemen ground forces driving towards Bab al-Mandab. Fighting is happening across at least three fronts, including in the mountains west of Taiz, in Marib and in Sana’a. The Houthis have sent missiles towards at least five Saudi cities. The scale of the Houthi reverse has probably been exaggerated. What is the relationship between the legitimate UN-recognised government and Riyadh? The two countries share a 1,200km-long contested border, secured only after the 1934 Saudi-Yemen war. Since the British departure in 1967, Yemen has come to rely heavily on Saudi Arabia to remain an economically viable state. There are officially 2 million Yemenis working as migrants in Saudi Arabia. Many send money home and are just now being given legal status. Riyadh regularly provides grants to the Yemeni government to prevent its collapse (up to $12.6bn in the last 14 years). This heavily shapes its choice of leaders. Indeed so much of Yemen’s leadership resides in Riyadh’s hotels, instead of Aden, that critics call the administration the hotel legitimacy. Are the anti-Houthi forces inside Yemen aligned? No. Yemen is a maze of tribes, governorates and religious beliefs, which is reflected in its politics and militia armies. A dispute over which force can take credit for leading the counteroffensive also reflects political rivalries, but the southern forces are prominent, even though they are fighting to dislodge the Houthis from land that would not form part of a separate southern state. The separatist political wing, the Southern Transitional Council, will test its latent support with a popular mobilisation on 23 October and this may determine whether its leader, Aidarous al-Zubeidi, can risk returning from exile. He has been charged by the legitimate government with high treason for trying to set up a secessionist state in January. Fearing arrest by the Saudis, he fled to the UAE. His aides fear his one-time military ally Abu Zara has aligned himself with Riyadh. What is the role of the United Arab Emirates? The UAE joined the 2015 Gulf coalition to dislodge the Houthis from Sana’a but, as Saudi methods became ever more unpopular, the UAE distanced itself. It had its own anti-Muslim Brotherhood agenda and regarded the Islah party – strong in the Yemeni government – as an offshoot of the Brotherhood. It slowly aligned itself with the southern separatists, largely as a way of gaining leverage inside Yemen, just as Saudi Arabia ironically did during the 1994 Yemen civil war. They trained the STC and National Resistance Forces. The UAE left Yemen in January 2026. It remains wary of Saudi intentions. Why is the US so reluctant to intervene? It has its hands full and its munitions stocks are empty due to the war in Iran. Ahead of the midterms, Donald Trump does not want to launch another forever war. After bombing the Houthis for 50 days in spring 2025, he struck a bilateral ceasefire with the Houthis – a deal that excluded Israel. He has twice rejected Saudi pleas that the fate of the strait is a matter for the world. Is anyone else involved? Yes. European countries, including the UK, are providing some air refuelling for Saudi jets. More importantly, rumours swirl around the new Mecca joint defence agreement, signed on 7 August 2026, by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Its purpose is clear: filling the Gulf security vacuum exposed by the US-Israeli war on Iran, but its relevance to Yemen is sketchy. There are reports Pakistan is sending weaponry to Aden. Who will win? Many doubt Saudi Arabia has the staying power to reach Sana’a. Saudi energy infrastructure is vulnerable. The attack on the Saudi east-west pipeline on 11 September from Iraqi territory showed how a broader regional confrontation could open multiple fronts for Riyadh. Over nearly two decades the Houthis have shown themselves to be the masters of ground combat. But Yemen is now part of an international conflict and so many assumptions are up for review.

Poland’s ‘solidarity’ push for EU energy resilience in face of Russian aggression

Two miles off the coast of Gdańsk, the white steel piles of Poland’s first offshore gas terminal rise from the slate-grey Baltic. Installed at a height eight metres above the waves, the floating cranes and construction vessels here are on the frontline of Europe’s push for energy security. Since the taps were turned off on Russian gas after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago, Poland has turned to the global energy market for supplies. But while conditions are far from ideal as the Middle East war drives oil and gas prices to stratospheric levels, strengthening the diversity of the country’s energy mix remains a top priority for Poland, its Baltic neighbours, and the EU at large. Looking out to sea from the windswept beach backed by pine forest, Maciej Wawrzkowicz, the offshore project manager at the national gas company Gaz-System, and the construction manager Krzysztof Polatynski say the Baltic is not an easy place to build. Before work could start, Polish navy minesweepers were called in to torpedo unexploded mines and bombs from the second world war. Construction is halted by storms, while the sea froze over last winter. But speed is important in this project of international significance. “Every quay that’s available right now in the area that has some prefabrication workshop space, a contractor is occupying them. And you are seeking for more. Gdańsk harbour is a significant construction place right now.” Poland used to import more than half of its gas from Russia but refused to pay in rubles in 2022 as the Kremlin became a pariah in the west over Putin’s war on Ukraine. A Norwegian pipeline under the Baltic and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at Świnoujście, close to the border with Germany, helped to keep most homes warm and the fires of industry burning. At Gdańsk the construction of the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) – a specialised marine vessel used to store and convert LNG – is planned to further bolster Poland’s booming economy. But it will also increase the country’s capacity beyond domestic needs – turning it into a hub for eastern Europe and its Baltic neighbours. Poland has LNG regasification capacity of 8.3bn cubic metres a year. Once the FRSU is operational in early 2028, that will add 6.1bn cubic metres a year of additional capacity. A second vessel at the Gdańsk FRSU is also planned for 2030 to lift total capacity to more than 20bn cubic metres a year. In an age of geopolitical challenges, the FSRU vessel also has a symbolic name: “Solidarity”, in a nod to its home port’s history, and Poland’s drive to strengthen EU ties in the face of Russian aggression. In the 1980s, as the Soviet Union crumbled, strikes at Lenin shipyard in Gdańsk over communist rule launched Poland’s Solidarność (Solidarity) movement. Led by Lech Wałęsa, it paved the way for independence and the transition to a free-market economy. Living standards have shot up since, from 40% of the EU average in the mid-1990s to 81% last year. Agnieszka Ozga, the director of the energy transition division, and her deputy, Paweł Sęk, say Poland has been working to diversify energy supplies for decades, with the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia accelerating the process. But 2022 was a “gamechanger,” says Sęk. “After the war started, we knew what was going on and we knew many countries in our region would end up with no gas flows coming from Russia”. Since then the Gdańsk FSRU has grown in importance, says Ozga. “Not only for Poland. But also Slovakia; central and eastern Europe countries; the Baltic states. It is also very, very important for the European Commission: to end the isolation of the Baltic states, because they were fully dependent on inflows of gas from Russia.” However, there is also plenty of evidence in Gdańsk highlighting the energy challenges Poland must still confront. On the edges of the old town’s narrow cobbled streets, the red and white-banded chimney stacks of a Soviet-era coal-fired power plant belch out thick plumes of smoke. Tourist boats ferrying visitors to the Westerplatte peninsula – where the first shots of the second world war were fired – must also pass through the jet-black mountains of a coal dock. Coal accounts for more than half of electricity generation in Poland, significantly above the EU average. The legacy of Soviet fossil-fuel infrastructure and centuries of domestic production in this resource-rich country mean it remains key for the economy. More than 80,000 people still work in coalmines, mainly in the south around the industrial city of Katowice – once called Stalinogród – as one of the few remaining coalmining regions still digging among EU countries fully committed to decarbonisation. However, cutting out coal in favour of LNG, renewables and nuclear power is seen as critical for Poland’s future sovereignty and prosperity. Relying on heavily polluting and costly fossil fuels, the country’s average wholesale electricity prices are the ninth highest in the EU – holding back growth in a country accustomed to powering ahead. As wages and living standards catch up to western European levels, Polish manufacturing is beginning to lose its competitive edge from cheap labour – a factor that had long attracted multinationals such as Volkswagen and Toyota to locate factories in the country. As a result, keeping down other production costs – such as energy – is growing in importance. Rafał Brzoska, the billionaire founder of InPost, the pan-European parcel locker company started in Krakow, is among Poland’s concerned entrepreneurs. “The competitive cost of energy is not our big advantage. So we need to somehow change and reshape and focus on those elements of our economy that we can compete against, let’s say, France, that has the cheapest cost of energy. We cannot compete on the most cost-driven industries.” Warsaw has pushed in recent years to decarbonise with a strategy up to 2040. However, critics warn that it still puts the country on a path to being the last EU economy to be producing the most of its power from fossil fuels by 2030, endangering economic security and prosperity. It will also require vast levels of public investment, at a time when the national debt is piling up and borrowing costs are rising. There are also political challenges in the run-up to a general election next year, with rightwing opponents of Donald Tusk’s liberal government pushing to rally Eurosceptic voters by weaponising the green transition. The government is also investing in nuclear, building a plant on the Baltic coast. However, critics highlight an eye-watering price tag of more than €42bn (£35.6bn), for a facility that will not come online until the late 2030s. Poland’s deputy foreign minister Marcin Bosacki says EU membership is, however, aiding a transition that will strengthen the economy. “We inherited from communist times the worst electricity or power mix of all EU members. It is changing – maybe not fast enough – but it is changing quite fast.” Poland has secured €54.7bn in funding through the EU’s post-Covid recovery and resilience facility, with 40% going primarily to energy-related objectives. It is also the largest beneficiary of a Brussels fund intended to support the introduction of the EU’s emissions trading system carbon-pricing scheme. “Poles are the world champions in getting EU funds,” Bosacki says. Since joining the bloc in 2004 he estimates more than €300bn has flowed to Warsaw, supporting road building, railways and other critical infrastructure to power its economic boom. “We calculate the growth of Polish GDP would be half of what actually happened in the last 20 years if Poland was not a member of the EU. Almost a half.” After annual output surpassed $1tn (£756bn) last year – ranking Poland as the sixth largest economy in the EU, ahead of countries including Belgium, Sweden and Austria – the flow of catchup funds from Brussels is, however, likely to dwindle. Mateusz Urban, a Warsaw-based economist at Oxford Economics, says changing the energy system by 2040 will be tough. But ditching its status as a laggard in the green transition is vital – for the climate, for energy independence, and economic security. In the past, Poland has come under pressure from the Kremlin using its gas supplies for political ends, including attempts in 2010 to extract punishing terms from Warsaw that would have stitched up the Polish gas market in Russia’s favour. “If you have one big supplier through a pipeline you have no power,” Urban says. With the closure of the strait of Hormuz and as Donald Trump rattles the global energy market by threatening to limit diesel exports, risks remain. Large volumes of the LNG imported by sea to Poland are from the US and Qatar. But Polish energy officials are sanguine, suggesting that other markets could still be utilised, and argue widening horizons beyond Russian imports remains critical. Urban agrees that diversifying energy supplies, while renewable power generation takes time to develop, could help strengthen Poland’s hand. “We need it for geopolitical security. Moving away from Russian gas, and coal, is a huge step forward. If you have a diverse supply, then you’re more insulated from trouble in each region.”

Japan PM leads outcry after US Marine arrested over alleged killing of woman on Okinawa

Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has led public outcry over crimes committed by US servicemen after a marine suspected of killing a woman on Okinawa was arrested on Saturday. In a speech in parliament, Takaichi described the alleged crime as “heinous” and urged US military authorities to enforce discipline among American servicemen stationed on Okinawa, an island 1,000 miles south of Tokyo. Police said Devin Ballard, a 20-year-old lance corporal, had been arrested on suspicion of strangling Anna Yagi, 39, at a hotel in Okinawan capital Naha early on Saturday. He is also suspected of stealing her wallet and backpack. Ballard denied the allegations, police said. If convicted, Ballard could face life in prison or the death penalty. The US military has paused all operations on the Japanese island for two days, following Ballard’s arrest. Lt. Gen. Benjamin Watson, commander of III Marine Expeditionary Force, said in a letter posted on social media that incidents allegedly involving service members “demand we pause for reflection”. During the two-day operational pause, which was due to begin at noon on Wednesday, military personnel will receive training on standards and discipline, and “our responsibilities as members of the Okinawan community”, Watson said. Off-base liberties will be cancelled during the period, including a blanket ban on alcohol. The US military will also impose a monthlong curfew from midnight to 5am starting Friday, the Kyodo news agency reported. The alleged crime has sparked an outcry on Okinawa, which hosts tens of thousands of American troops and dozens of bases. Crimes and accidents involving US troops on Okinawa have been a constant source of tension between Tokyo and Washington and the target of protests among local people. The island hosts most of the 50,000 US troops in Japan and 70% of the country’s military facilities there. Ballard’s arrest triggered anger in Okinawa days after voters elected Genta Koja, a pro-US base governor backed by Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic party, ending the eight-year-tenure of Denny Tamaki, a critic of the US military presence on the island. Koja’s election had raised hopes that the US and Japan might finally make progress on the planned transfer of a marine corps base from a densely populated city to a remote off-shore location. The relocation of Futenma air station, where Ballard is stationed, has been held up for decades amid opposition from people living near the alternative site and local politicians who want US military facilities moved off the island altogether. Koja said the arrest had dealt a “major shock” to the island and “raises fears among Okinawans who have already been forced to live next to US bases”. He added: “It is absolutely unforgivable, and we are outraged.” He said the case proved that US attempts to improve discipline among its troops had failed. “I’m enraged by the loss of a precious life of an Okinawan resident,” he told Lt Gen Benjamin Watson, commander of III Marine Expeditionary Force, and the US consul general in Naha, Andrew Ou, after Ballard’s arrest. Watson said he recognised that the incident had caused “significant concern and anxiety among the residents of Okinawa, our neighbours”. He added: “We are committed to being good neighbours … and earning the trust of the Okinawan people.” Anti-US sentiment on Okinawa intensified after the 1995 rape of a 12-year-old girl by three American servicemen. A year later, Tokyo and Washington agreed to reduce the US military footprint by closing Futenma and relocating its functions to the quiet fishing village of Henoko on the north-east coast. Anger erupted again over the rape of a teenage girl by a US service member in 2024 and the delayed disclosure of the crime. Crimes involving US troops on Okinawa have risen in recent years, from about 40 in 2020 to 101 last year, according to the prefectural police. Okinawa plays a central role in regional tensions. Japan’s government insists US bases on the island act as a deterrent amid Chinese claims over disputed parts of the East and South China Seas and the emergence of a nuclear-armed North Korea. Under the Japan-US status of forces agreement, Ballard, who was arrested in a civilian district while he was off duty, will remain in the custody of the Japanese authorities. Security footage showed him entering the hotel with Yagi and later leaving alone. Yagi’s family said they were “devastated” by her death. Her brother said in a statement: “Our parents are especially exhausted with grief after losing their daughter.”

‘Rip it open’: Big Girls Don’t Cry director explores wounds of early love in film festival hit

In Big Girls Don’t Cry, the New Zealand coming-of-age film quietly devastating film festivals, there is a scene on a moonlit beach. It features the main character, Sid, played by Ani Palmer, and one of the cool older city boys who has come to the small, golden-sand town of Ōmaha for the summer. It is a deeply relatable, deeply uncomfortable watch; reliving the teenage negotiation – or not – of consent feels unsettling and validating. “Yeah, an 18-year-old at the screening last night said, ‘I feel so seen and exposed,” director and writer Paloma Schneideman, 34, says. “I was like, whoa, that’s quite an astute way to think about it. One is cathartic and healing, and the other is quite confronting.” Schneideman says she wanted to tell a story about the place “between consent and non-consent, where it was just something we felt we had to do”. “It’s such a tricky space, and I don’t think we see it a lot. How do we make amends with the scars of that time?” The global response to Shneideman’s debut film, which also explores desire, queerness and finding your way – in this case, through small-town New Zealand in the early millennium – suggests the need to feel empathy for our teenage selves is universally felt. Since its debut at the Sundance film festival in February, the film has won the Nouvelle Vagues film festival’s Grand Prix – actor Kristen Stewart said it “unpacks the early 2000s, and subliminal trespass, and pain and strength … with such an astounding touch” – and has been shown at major festivals from South by Southwest to London’s BFI Flare. Variety called it a “gentle, rigorous, queer coming of age story”, while the Hollywood Reporter said it “pulses with a powerful sense of place and terrifically charged scenes of chaotic intimacy”. Ahead of its general release in New Zealand and the US on 8 and 9 October, Shneideman is feeling grateful for the way it’s connected with audiences. “The most amazing part is seeing how many people take such ownership over the film, they think it’s for them. And it is.” ‘Sleepless nights’ The film’s protagonist, 14-year-old Sid, negotiates adolescence at a time of fledgling dial-up internet and brick phones, where options for connecting with like-minded people or exploring sexuality included booting up MSN messenger or flicking through satellite TV to covertly watch Red Shoe Diaries. It wasn’t a particularly safe moment to be queer, or a teenage girl in New Zealand. “I found the one queer person in [high school] and they very quickly became my best friend,” Shneideman says. “There was a boy in the First IV [rugby team] who people found out had two mums, and it was the point of gossip and bullying.” Shneideman developed Big Girls Don’t Cry while at Wave in the Ocean, the prestigious film school set up by Oscar-award winning director Jane Campion (The Piano, Power of the Dog) as part of its first 10-person intake in 2022. It’s the first feature film to be released by a graduate, and is supported by the New Zealand Film Commission. “We were sort of these guinea pigs and we just had the best time, learning from the best practitioners in the country and if we weren’t doing that we were watching and shooting films and having mental breakdowns together,” Shneideman says. The script she began writing in 2019 kept evolving, even as it got into the hands of Palmer, Australian actor Noah Taylor, and American Rain Spencer in the 25 days it was shot between Ōmaha and Auckland early last year. “They’re all master improvisers, they meet me in this middle space between the script and the screen. Some of their best lines were theirs.” Campion, named as an executive producer on Big Girls Don’t Cry, encouraged creativity – including a daily movement practice – and listening to intuition, Schneideman says. “She was very much ‘the precedents you set for yourself in your first film will stay with you for the rest of your career,’ so lead how you want to lead.” As a result, Schneideman developed what she calls a “body gauge” during Big Girls Don’t Cry to help her discern if a shot, a performance, or a cut wasn’t right. ‘When the work’s not there, when the performance is not there, it actually just makes me feel quite sick. I can’t tell you how many sleepless nights I had, staring up at the wall being like – how do we blow that up and start it again and fix it?” she says. “My whole thing as a film-maker is to try and make you not notice any of the work, so as soon as something pulls you out, we’ve failed.” She’s got a whirlwind of international release dates ahead of her, but Shneideman is already looking ahead. On a taxi-ride recently to LAX, she found herself running through scenes for the next film she wants to make, which she describes as an “anti romance,” exploring the wounds of lost love. Will this be a hallmark of her career? “Yeah. Rip it open. Then when I finally feel healed, just rip it open again. We don’t want a film that’s just happy, and everything goes right. I think that would be deeply dissatisfying.”

Plague epidemic risk in Russia low after death of lab technician, WHO says

The World Health Organization has said the risk of an epidemic in Russia is low after the sudden death of a lab technician who worked at a plague research institute in Siberia. Darya Shipilova, who was 28, died last week, two days after falling ill. Russian media reports suggested she may have become infected after an accident at her workplace, where dangerous pathogens are kept and studied. Russian authorities have downplayed the incident and say Shipilova died of “pneumonia of an unknown aetiology”. Strict quarantine measures have been imposed at the research centre in the city of Irkutsk and in several neighbouring hospitals. Christian Lindmeier, a WHO spokesperson, said on Tuesday that there was no sign of a wider outbreak. “All ‌of the patients’ contacts have reportedly been identified and are being monitored for ‌illness, and none to date have shown symptoms of illness,” he said. Russian ⁠officials were still investigating whether viral pneumonic plague caused Shipilova’s death but the WHO had assessed the health risk as “moderate to low” for Irkutsk, “low” for the rest of Russia and “very low” for Europe, he said. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged Russia on Tuesday to be transparent about Shipilova’s death. “Timely, complete and transparent information sharing under the International Health Regulations is essential to clarify conflicting reports and enable an accurate assessment of potential public health risks,” he wrote on X. According to Russian media, 60 of Shipilova’s colleagues have been locked in the institute where she worked since Friday, sleeping on the floors and chairs while tests are carried out. Similar measures have been imposed in five hospitals, with relatives forbidden to see patients. The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, urged people on Tuesday not to listen to rumours but to rely on statements from Russia’s health watchdog, Rospotrebnadzor. It said the situation in Irkutsk was stable, with no new infectious disease cases reported among institute employees. Washington has been watching developments closely. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, called on Moscow on Tuesday to release more details about the case. “I think it’s incumbent upon ⁠Russia to obviously share more information with the world,” he said. “We’re watching it very closely, hour ‌by hour.” The Wall Street Journal reported that the US state department had sent Russia a confidential diplomatic communication known as a demarche warning Moscow that failure to disclose details runs counter to its international health obligations. Trump said on Tuesday that he was due to speak shortly with Russian president Vladimir Putin about the technician’s death. “I have a call scheduled, yes,” Trump told reporters at the White House when asked if he had spoken to Putin on the issue yet, adding that it would happen “very soon”. Trump had said earlier that his administration was willing to offer assistance. “I hate to see them having it. We’ll help. Everybody who has that kind of a problem, we’ll always help,” he told reporters. In an apparent mirror response, Rospotrebnadzor announced that Russia was prepared to assist the US in combating its own outbreaks of infectious diseases. “The situation regarding dangerous infectious diseases remains unstable,” it said, highlighting a “significantly worsened” measles situation in three US states and a “fatal case of plague” recorded in New Mexico in June. *With Agence France-Presse

New Zealand greenhouse gas levels hit record highs threatening catastrophic glacier melts

New Zealand could be hit with more frequent and intense heatwaves and catastrophic glacier melts in the near future, as greenhouse gas levels hit record highs, a new report about the nation’s climate has revealed. Released on Wednesday, the Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026 report shows New Zealand is experiencing mounting climate pressures, which will have wide-reaching implications for the environment, native species and communities. “The signal is just becoming clearer … there are multiple indicators that are showing increased warming and the likelihood of climate change,” Dr Alison Collins, chief science adviser for the ministry for cities, environment, regions and transport (Mcert) told the Guardian. New Zealand’s annual average temperature has risen by 1.36C since records began in 1909, and seven of the 10 warmest years on record occurred in the last decade, the report said. “Whilst it sounds like a small amount … it is a significant baseline shift that’s having ramifications through nature, through our communities, and through businesses and industry,” Collins said. The report finds that as the climate heats, glaciers are shrinking. New Zealand has roughly 3000 glaciers, and they have shrunk in volume from 56 cubic kilometres in 1997 to 30 cubic kilometres in 2023, the report said. Modelling of glacier retreat shows a high risk of further decline on the horizon. Under the “low climate scenario” – which assumes low emissions – glaciers will very likely lose between 14 and 86% of their volume by 2100. Under the “high climate scenario”, that figure rises to between 69 and 100% of their volume. “We’re talking about substantial loss,” Collins said. Greenhouse gases have increased to record levels in New Zealand’s atmosphere, the report shows. There was a 30% increase in carbon dioxide since monitoring began in New Zealand in 1972. Methane levels had also slightly increased in 2025 to their highest concentration ever. “That additional heat is showing up in rising temperatures, warming oceans, rising seas, shifting rainfall patterns and more intense extremes,” the report said. Among those extremes were heatwaves, which the report said were “very likely” to increase in frequency, length and intensity across the country. The number of days hitting more than 25C was also “very likely” to increase by 2050, which will expose people to heat-related health risks, including physical illness, disease and psychological distress. Marine heatwaves are also becoming more pronounced and affecting some native species, the report said. In 2025, the series revealed New Zealand’s oceans were warming 34% faster than the global average which has been linked to mass sea sponge bleaching, die-offs of southern bull kelp, large scale fish standings and penguin deaths. The three-yearly update from Mcert and Stats NZ collates statistics, data and research across five domains – air, atmosphere and climate, freshwater, land, and marine – to paint a picture of the state of New Zealand’s environment. The report outlined a myriad of issues that will stem from continued warming, including damaging storms and cyclones that pose a risk to life, droughts affecting species and agricultural industries, sea level rise eroding infrastructure and housing and Māori communities having reduced access to culturally significant places. Severe storms, including Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland floods in 2023, have battered New Zealand in recent years, causing deaths, widespread devastation and billions of dollars in costs. New Zealand was built and developed around a relatively stable set of climate conditions and the report examines what happens when those conditions begin to change, Collins said. “Climate change is not just an environmental issue. It’s a human story. It’s an economic story.”